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Home My WebLink AboutM-TM-28-80 M-nl28--80 TO: Men-hers of the Growth 1anagement Study Team FM-1: A. C. Guiler, Tam Manager DATE: August 25th, 1080 SUBJECT: Growth Management Study Attached for your information is a copy of a letter received from Mr. McCredie for your perusal. A.C. Guiler. - l 1 this copy for Ontario Hydu r. MR. A_ GUILER r August 15, 1980 Mr. Frank Clayton, President Our File: NK36-11832 T3 Clayton Research Associates Ltd. Suite 1 2900 Eglinton Avenue SC7uRB0ROUGH, Ontario M1J 2E4 4&G Dear Mr. Clayton: Growth Management Study for. the Town of Newcastle - Darlington GS workforce Analysis In addition to a set of tables profiling several municipalities including Newcastle, please find enclosed the following four tables relating directly to the analysis of the Darlington GS workforce: I Manpower Peaks Per Trade II Estimate of Workforce Currently Residing Inside the "Pickering to Port hope" Area by Present Work Location III Estimate of Workforce Currently Residing Outside the "Pickering to Port Hope" Area by Present Work Location IV Analvsis of Workforce.by Commuter or Potential In-mover to the "Pickering to Port Hope" Area These tables are hand-written, but when typed will be forwarded to you by mail. The assumptions contained in the tables are apnendixed to the corresponding table and are essential to understanding this letter. This analysis has several limitations; forerost is the lack of precision and reliability. It is an attempt to systematically analyze something elusive. Aside from the many assumptions involved in the calculations, much judgment is needed to refine the final number of potential in-movers or relocating workers even further. The following points suggest that the range of 924 - 1211 potential in-movers found in Table IV is unrealistically Nigh. b . 2 MR. FRANK CLAYTON Clayton Research Associates ,Ltd. August 15, 1980 a) Tradespeople affiliated with province-wide union locals seldom. change their permanent residence for the sake of one job. They usually rent rooms or small apartments. It is likely, though, that most field management, CC=Ais3ioning and operations staff will relocate to the local area.. It should be stated that commissioning people take over operations functions and so, as the work period is lengthened, incentive to relocate is high. b) The area to which in-movers decide to relocate depends on several timely factors, relating specifically to the municipalities involved. The Town of Newcastle planning staff ,should advise on the price, availability and type of housing in their area. Despite some desirable features in Newcastle, the neighbouring cities of Oshawa and Port Hope offer more variety and amenities. However, a combination of reasonable taxes, proximity to the site and housing availability could make the Town very attractive. c) Past surveys have indicated that tradespeople, when relocating, have an average household size of 2.2 people including the trades- person. They prefer owner-occupied single family houses. d) The demands of potential in-movers on the Towai's services have not been estimated. Certain types of demands, however, can be expected, e.g. on schools, recreation areas. To make this estimation, further information about the presence or capacity of these services is needed. The enclosed backqround material in the form of tables is the extent of our current appreciation for the Town's facilities. We would be pleased to discuss such estimates with the Town's planning staff to establish some cpiide- lines for your needs if you so desire. . Any questions that you have regarding the tables or their interpretation should be directed to Alanna Quinn at 592-3852, or in her absence, to Bob Osborne at 592-3867. Best of luck with your work. Yours truly, INFORMATION COPY CRIGINAL SIGNED aY J. MCCREDIE,/�- J. McCredie Project Manager AQuinn/bc Darlington GS Enclosures CC: A. Guiler, Town Mqr. , Town of .Newcastle J_A. Hale, Darlington GS Project A. Quinn, Social and Community Studies . Assumptions : TABLE 1 1 . The term "peak manpower" refers to the greatest number of employees in that job category at one time. This number then represents an extreme case as the manpower peak lasts for only a three month period. 2. This table is intended to illustrate the dispersal of peaks. FEARS 9U i i { { 7. ltY (o C6A76f �0 i i I j 1, 91 E , R.Q PEEA'tGQS i i I ' {3,CcREMEN ! a� t4; -25IEA%l -- APERTMPS 53S i5 t i TMETAf—x,16�'ICE� 53 I � a i t7, n NS4 OUE�AU - 0 4 �`�t "Ci; 0� V.�P�KFaRCC C�lc'RCry T Ly Rl iDiNC� ir�1StDC THE 'NLI;FoQQ TO BURT HflflE-' kAK �a ('1►�NPG(n� ._,.w�E�IorS_�Ft�U�NI�MM- __.�o�crv� __-----.-- Q�GUIn1CL-- wtDC RL�r�t75-- A�i�Rc�S IUII. Lf��taRk�S 5Z3 75-`�0 ,�92-tf'11 cRP9�1 7DPIS -9U 292 -350 Wl(Aa ERc> j (I (oO !I Ir' N It lG-,LEk S -f ; 3t 0FAT�S Iq� 49-9 tG ECIAL(`f I Fus s 4 LA-Zi ( o n i Su&ToTr 1 60 i { - � 0,7 ELECV(Chd I ' SAM+P�P��(1ic�S IGLEL7CfaC N l 541 801 C2R rlgKFRS (90 IU-k0 � iq-7(c MIILWKIl3N-tS (0q (Aisu C lq 6r,S MAC�t�ISIS � F(KEMI:N a9 X5-140 Sur�Ta F}L I I I� i FIELD MR�aAG}u fi is �F!c(c �� 341 CO(W'115S10�IN� -4 � .I tI QTI U rs5 5T ')o0 Sj�t�T i �Ic�u�T (9So Assumptions : The following tables are interdependent. TABLE II : Estimate of workforce currently residing in the "Pickering to Port Dope" area by present work location. TABLE III : Estimate of workforce currently residing outside the IN "Pickering to Port Hope" area. by present work location. 1. These tables include the full range of jobs involved in building and operating the station. 2. "P .M. " is an abbreviation for "peak manpower" . 3 . In order to understand who might work on the station and where they might reside, the best indicator seemed to be the location of trade union locals Hydro will be dealing with; for the field management, commissioning and operations staff, the current sequence of Hydro ' s construction projects was reviewed. Many of these non-trades people are currently employed at the Pickering Nuclear .Station. 4 . The term "present work location" is intended to convey either the current place of work or the location from which jobs are assigned, ie, union locals. These locals were identified by Hydro personnel officers and fall into three broad areas : Durham, Toronto, and province-wide. 5. These tables , when read together, account for 100% of all peak manpower, e.g. in Table II , 75 - 90% of the peak manpower for labourers is estimated to reside in the "Pickering to Port Hope" area; in Table III , 10 - 25% is estimated to reside outside this area. The estimate of workers is provided in ranges. In order to emphasize the lack of precision in the data, percentages are also used and proceed the "numbers" of workers. 6 . It has been assumed for trades with locals in the Region of Durham that 75 - 900 of the jobs will be filled by workers residing in that area. If another major construction project is underway concurrent to Darlington construction, this assumption could be too high. Tradespeople from Toronto and province-wide locals could . be used. 7 . Trades with locals in Toronto will already have some of their tradespeople residing in the "Pickering to Port Hope" area because of house prices , availability of the desired unit type ie; single family dwellings , and the vacancy rate. S . Trades with province-wide responsibilities may also have some members already residing in the "Pickering to, Port Hope" area for the same reasons as stated in 7 . Other areas of the province offer the same housing advantages as this area so their estimated figures are lower than tradespeople affiliated to Toronto. ESTtMF�CG GC= 1,,10��FaR(_L; Cuf�f:Ef�icy ��IOIr�C� UCl7SC_�_E_ �I�C FPICI~E�IN(9 �"� {'c1�t-t�P�" t4� '�- F�� - P�E�Fs__t j_woRK,_c_c�9 T�oti1 _ To i A� �UTSioC (JUL -q7 cEMEN7 riA S6mS dq !o-a5 t�lC�CC��tE�`j ll 0 0 OME,ti , I QP�t�'Cd(ZS SUP,T6�AL (1o�� li -►x ; 473- ehN TE�Z IA?IECS c " S�+P�PErtz�s � 53.5 5b-tom aC�-3�{8 I-P Mr�HaNICS, a � vi- o M�c�l�cs-CS Su6z6T 145� 17-�� I � F1Et D MA,vAGE/I EST 4( (,�- "�C�Nt^1tSSi�NII�G� �- j i Sup�tc,r 700 Assumptions : TABLE IV: Analysis of workforce by commuter or potential y in-mover to the "Pickering to Port Hope" area. 1. An in-mover is someone who relocates his/her residence to the "Pickering to Port Hope" area. 2. All tradespeople assumed to be existing residents in the Region of Durham are called "current residents" and are expected to commute to work. 3. *Toronto affiliated tradespeople assumed to reside outside the "Pickering to Port Hope" area are expected .to be commuters . (The labeling is a little awkward! ) 4 . The only potential in-movers are estimated to be trades- people affilitated to locals with province-wide jurisdic- tion and 25 % of the field management, commissioning and operations staff. Further refinement of this category_ is provided in the covering letter . ANALYSIS Or wbRkFtRce 6r-f C0PYA1 l7tP, OR POTEN-TIA TO lP7 ►tt�F �� -- -- Po7aJr A�_. ►�_�1�UE S I Cuk T To(\I"T0 w�,�;� F�GUf�iC� vJiDE LaC�lTCcvs (ZC�iC,C'rJTS '\E��C�Ir aC vtt�S1EA ' f�t �NC� CfU. SrOE F1_ OF A� ZRAt�S i I � LIU(11 SPr-C iAL-(� E✓cE(-"CPS c L� �. �k-�3�, ,,J, 8 S>l SA Nn i � I Ft C(A T' ' 3'Erl `6 IRD ,3jr-C THE 3 1 8 (l 3 oFTcc�r�S S70 Sys i� I� Yo Iiii �8 AKAm b MTAL 3113-3g00 �o0P-CR'A{v0 T0-(�1C- 702-79 `TI}E �R4NO T6TAL WAS F,�EN AnU!S:—EC> To CMFIGM-�-(-E- -r,IG Ra r, 33\m , OF P ccN7�G�� SEE-: Ff---S U.MPTIati�, rdR OF- TTcC