HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD-297-90 TOWN OF NEWCASTLE
r SESSM.GPA REPORT File # /o
Res. #
By-Law #
hEETING: General Purpose and Administration Committee
DATE: October 1, 1990
REPORT #: PD-297-90 FILE #: Pln 2 .2 . 1; Pln 14 .5
SUB.ECT: ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL LAND NEED IN THE
TOWN OF NEWCASTLE (SOUTH COURTICE)
RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and
Administration Committee recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PD-297-90 be received for information;
2 . THAT a copy of the report "Assessment of the Unmet
Requirement for Industrial Land in the Newcastle Study Area" .
be forwarded to the Region of Durham Planning Department for
input into the Review of the Durham Region Official Plan.
1. BACKGROUND
1. 1 In March 1990 Council endorsed Staff's recommendation on
Servicing Feasibility Study for the South Courtice Area.
The study provided an overview in terms of the time and
capital costs of the servicing for South Courtice. In order
to ensure that the servicing of these lands were warranted,
Staff recommended that an Employment Area Market Study be
undertaken to investigate the unmet need for the industrial
lands in Courtice in the context of the industrial land
requirement in Durham Region over the next twenty years .
1 .2 Subsequently, the consulting firm of C.N. Watson and
Associates were retained to undertake the study. The Report
prepared by the consultants is forwarded under separate
cover.
REPORT NO. : PD-297-90 PAGE 2
2. THE STUDY
2 . 1 The consultant was requested to determine the market
for industrial land in Newcastle. The market for
industrial land is determined by two methods of
forecasting for future requirements:
i) The industrial land absorption method is
determined by forecasting future rates of
absorption based on historic rates and other
factors .
ii) The industrial employment method is determined by
the forecasting employment on industrial lands and
determining land requirements based on an assumed
density of employment.
2 .2 Industrial Land Absorption
2 .2 . 1 Industrial land absorption is defined as the transition
of land from an idle state to a state where an
industrial activity or function is carried out upon the
lands. There are 4 determining factors in land
absorption:
Industrial Inventory
Assessment Growth and Building Permits
Price
Development Density
2 .2 .2 Within the lakeshore municipalities in Durham
(Pickering, Ajax, Oshawa & Newcastle) there are 10, 127
net acres of designated industrial land: 4,248 net
acres (42%) have been built upon while 5,879 acres
(58%) remain vacant.
REPORT NO. : PD-297-90 PAGE 3
The total lands that are currently designated for
industrial purposes in the study area are distributed
as follows: Pickering 3091 acres (30 .5%) ; Oshawa 2 ,088
acres (20 .6%) ; Ajax 1,941 acres ( 19 . 1%) ; Whitby 1, 839
acres ( 18 . 1%) and Newcastle 1, 168 acres ( 11.5%) .
Of the net lands vacant and available, they are
distributed as follows: Newcastle 852 acres ( 14 .5%) ;
Oshawa 675 acres ( 11.5%) ; Whitby 822 acres (14 . 0%) ;
Ajax 1,215 acres (20 .7%) and Pickering 2,315 acres
(39 .4%) . It should be noted that 391 acres of the
Town's inventory is unserviced.
2 .2 . 3 A general indicator of absorption are building permits
denoting the placement of structures on the land. The
issuance of building permits would indicate that 1,260
acres of industrial land were absorbed over the eight
year period between 1981 and 1988 which would average
to an annual absorption rate of 158 acres per year.
This figure is used to estimate future demand.
A number of assumptions and calculations are shown in
Attachment #1 to ultimately determine the supply of
land. The results indicate there is a 24 year supply
of vacant industrial land in the Durham Study Area (to
2014) . However, this method is based on past
absorption trends, and the assumption that market,
population, infrastructure, transportation and
technology characteristics remain the same in the
future.
2 . 3 Industrial Land Demand
2 . 3 . 1 Two important factors in determining the demand for
industrial land through the Industrial Employment
REPORT NO. : PD-297-90 PAGE 4
Projection Method are:
i) Industrial Labour Force
ii) Population Growth
2 . 3 .2 Industrial labour force is represented by the labour
force by place of residence and labour force by place
of work. Within the south Durham Study Area, the 1981
labour force was 128, 185 persons but the total work
place labour force is 100, 620 persons therefore
producing a net out-migration of 27,565 workers . (The
1981 Census is the most recent information available) .
2 . 3 . 3 The population in the south Durham Study Area has
increased by 24% over the past seven years . The Region
of Durham population forecast for the lakeshore
municipalities in 2011 is 657,000, an increase of 125%
from 1986 . For 2021 the population is forecasted at
803,000 or a 178% increase.
2 . 3 .4 Under the Employment Projection Method a relationship
is established between the number of jobs within a
municipality. By determining the number of jobs
created in a particular job sector and against the
population of a period of time, a density of employees
per acre is calculated. The density figure will
determine net acres required to accommodate a number of
jobs.
Within the Study Area the employee density is between
15 to 18 employees per acre. For measure of comparison
highly urbanized centres will yield 20 employees per
acre.
REPORT NO. : PD-297-90 PAGE 5
2 . 3 . 5 Based on this method, industrial land demand is
expected to grow from 5,642 acres in 1986 to 9,051
acres in 2001; 11,760 acres by 2011 and 12,871 acres by
2021. See Attachment #2 .
As noted earlier there is a current supply of 10, 127
acres which would satisfy the current demand. However
by year 2006 the current supply is expected to drop
below the projected demand by 240 acres . A greater
shortage is expected by 2011 and 2021 unless more lands
are designated.
3. STUDY CONCLUSIONS
3 . 1 The study indicates that there will be a shortfall of
industrial land in the study area within the next
fifteen years . The Town of Newcastle is expected to
grow from 34,073 in 1986 to 110,425 in 2011 and 142,065
by 2021. Allocation of the total demand for industrial
land by percentage share of population would provide a
demand for land in Newcastle of 1,976 acres by 2011 and
2,454 acres by 2021. Newcastle has a current supply of
designated industrial land of 852 acres providing a
shortfall of 1, 124 acres by 2011 and 1,590 acres by
2021.
3 .2 The Town of Newcastle will require additional amounts
of land to accommodate future industrial growth. In
order to secure the favourable type of industrial uses
the proper setting is required which would include
location, access, municipal water and sewer, certain
land use controls and restrictions .
REPORT NO. : PD-297-90 PAGE 6
Of the 852 acres currently designated, 391 net
industrial acres are located in Courtice. These lands
are not serviced with municipal water or sewer and thus
attract a lower order industrial use.
The consultant has noted .that, from a locational
perspective, South Courtice is one of the best
locations available in this municipality. It would be
a natural extension to industrial development along the
401 through the GTA and it is anticipated that there
will be a north-south freeway linkage with the proposed
407 within the vicinity. In addition, the land prices
in Newcastle are very competitive compared to other
municipalities in the same proximity to Metro Toronto.
3. 3 Of the almost 1,600 acres of existing and proposed
industrial land in the South Courtice area,
approximately 45% is expected to be prestige industrial
land. The remaining 55% is expected to be developed as
general industrial uses . This mix of industrial uses
would seem reasonable as it provides for a variety of
industrial uses . The lands in this area, which is
currently identified as "Special Study Area" in the
Durham Region Official Plan Review, must be designated
in order to place the appropriate servicing and land
use controls.
4. STAFF COMMENTS
The second component of the investigation of future
development of the South Courtice area has been
completed and Staff suggest that this study be
forwarded to the Region of Durham to form part of the
Regional Official Plan Review. Staff are incorporating
REPORT NO. : PD-297-90 PAGE 7
this information in formulating the Town's response to
the "Draft Changes" document now under discussion.
Respectfully submitted, Recommended for presentation
to the Committee
th I
Franklin Wu, M.C. I .P. Lawrence Chief Kotseff
m
Director of Planning A strative
and Development Officer
CV*DC*FW*df
*Attach
20 September 1990
P o
FIGURE 4-1
INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY VS. ANTICIPATED FUTURE REQUIREMENTS
1 3 5 7 10 14
NUMBERS OF _
GROSS NET VACANT
DESIGNATED DESIGNATED INDUST. NET VACANT POTENTIALLY VACANT ABSORBABLE YEARS SUPPLY
INDUST.LAND LAND DESIGNATED INDUST. SALEABLE - NET DESIGNATED CURRENTLY
NET DESIGNATED INDUST.LAND AVAILABLE
LAND IN INDUST.LAND 3,794 acres
1990
=158 acres per year
24 year supply
77,973 acres 70,127 acres 5,939 acres 5,058 acres 3,794 acres
LESS: LESS: LESS: LESS: ALLOWANCE JONTINUALLY 1 Lam:
REP4CED /
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12 4 VACANCY f> oEVELOPMENT MARKET
9 I '9NS1ffUTK)NA12" 1 1 "COMMERCfAL" 12 -INDUSTRIAL- 13
OCCUPIED ALLOWANCES eg. PROCESSING CHOICE ' USES USES USES
LOCAL ROADS AREA ALLOWANCE. ALLOWANCE I (--a-- f..b�wraws.Kax* wr.+rau+�e...wauvc.
aoo wr saa; I ama artxw N+es ewo nuu. aoa esaew-ca.oaz
HYDRO AS OF _ y.MA#K RwouX mac,ewmm errx¢ omrs efts.r.a aunm. ne ^�
STORM WATER DECEMBER 31.1989 _IT umaaorrnt A10n41pM wo aaysu¢ I cviun�txr.u—m
WIDENINCS
surt
SEWER/WATER FAM �� I ••
15z=1.786 acres 4,248 i5S=881 acres 31r x 158 ores/yr- ,-x ts8—/r- i 4 acres/yr. 40 ocres/yr
—474 ocres =790 aaas
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TABLE 54
ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL LAND IN STUDY AREA
MISTRIAL EMPI DYMEM METHOD
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
POPULATION 289,052 365.435 434,805 506,465 580,955 657,135 733,240 803,405
ACTIVITY RATE 40.00% 42.00% 43.00% 44.00% 45.00% 46.009A 47.00% 48.00%:'
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 115,621 153,483 186,966 222,845, 261,430 302= 344,623 385,634
%INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT 56.00% 56.W% 56.00% 56.W% 56.00% 56.009A 56.0014
56.00%:;:::
INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYEES 64,748 85,950 104,701 124,793 146,401 169,278 192,989 215,955 -ii.l...
NON-INDUSIRMLEN1PLOYEE 6,475 8,595 10,470 12,479 14,640 16,928 19,299 21,596
ALLOWANCE-10%
TOTAL EMPLOYEES 58,275 77355 2121 112,314 131,761 152.3 4 173 194.359
EMPLOYEE DENSITY NET ACRE 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18
i--`--'DEMAND-NET ACRES 3,642 4,835 5,889 6,607 7,751 8,962 9,649 10,798
SUPPLY ALLOWANCt-5 YRS 790 790 790 790 790 790 790
PROCESSING ALLOWANCE-3 YRS 474 474 474 474 474 474 474 474
VACANCY ALLOWANCE'. 736 915 1,073 1,181 1,352 1,534 1,637 0
TOTAL DEMAND 5&2 10,367 11.760 12-550 13,871
CURRENT DESIGNATED SUPPLY 10,127 10,127 10,127 10,127 10,127 10,127 10,127 10,127
(net industrial 8=40)
0
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SURPLUS/(SHORTAGE) 'go IV
TOWN OF NEWCASTLE
t� MEMORANDUMS 9
DN: OR 13 AN 190
TO: Mayor Hubbard and Members of Council
FROM: Franklin Wu, M.C.I.P. , Director of Planning & Development
DATE: 20 September 1990
SUBJECT: ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL LAND REQUIRSMBNTS
FOR THE TOWN OF NEWCASTLE
Further to Council 's consideration of the servicing
requirements for the proposed South Courtice Industrial
Area, C.N. Watson and Associates was retained to review the
marke for industrial land in the Town of Newcastle with
specific reference to the South Courtice area. The
attached report was recently received and will be the
subject of a Staff Report at the October lst meeting of the
General Purpose and Administration Committee. This report
is forwarded separately to enable you the opportunity to
review the document ahead of time.
(J tiA�&
Frank
*jip
CC: Larry Kotseff, Chief dministrative Officer
CC: Patti Barrie, Clerk
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