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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD-85-92 V"Z THE CORPORATION OF THE TOWN OF NEWCASTLE DN: HOUSING.GPA REPORT Meeting: General Purpose and Administration Committee File# Date: Monday, April 6, 1992 Res #L By-Law# Report#: PD-85-92 File#: ___PJZL_J_J_ 1 Subject: ANNUAL HOUSING REPORT 1991 Recommendations: It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee recommend to Council the following: 1. THAT Report PD-85-92 be received; 2 . THAT a copy of this report be forwarded to the Region of Durham Planning Department, the Separate and Public School Boards, and the Ministry of Housing. 3 . THAT developers be required, as a condition of draft approval, to provide the Town Planning Department with information on home sales including lots, sizes, floorspace and selling prices. 1. The Provincial Land Use Planning for Housing Policy Statement requires municipalities to monitor how the provisions of the Policy Statement are being achieved. In this regard, Staff have prepared the 1991 Town of Newcastle Annual Housing Report which is attached to this report. An executive summary is included at the beginning of the Report 2 . In order to monitor residential activity and more specifically, to monitor whether or not the Town of Newcastle is meeting its affordability targets, it is necessary for Staff to collect information regarding home sales including lot sizes, floorspace and dwelling prices. It became clear while preparing the 1991 Annual Housing Report that it was not possible to accurately monitor the supply of affordable housing because Staff did not have enough information. Consequently, Staff is recommending that as part of the conditions of draft approval, developers will be c) REPORT PD-85-92 PAGE 2 required to supply this information prior to receiving final approval and after construction has begun. 3 . This information will be kept strictly confidential and will be used for the purposes of preparing the Annual Housing Report and to monitor the supply of affordable housing. Respectfully submitted, Recommended for presentation to the Committee A�6 ,Dv Franklin Wu, M.C.I.P. Lawrence Director of Planning Chief Ad i 4Kotseff strative and Development Officer TH*DC*FW*ld *Attach INTERESTED PARTIES TO BE NOTIFIED OF COUNCIL AND COMMITTEE'S DECISION: Darlene Mahyr-Richardson Ministry of Housing Central Region Housing Programs Office Madison Centre WILLOWDALE, Ontario M2N 6K1 Paul Brace, Manager Transportation Planning Northumberland and Newcastle Board of Education 834 D'Arcy Street North Box 470 COBOURG, Ontario K9A 4L2 Ken Kary Supervisor of Planning and Assessment Peterborough, Victoria, Northumberland and Newcastle Separate School Board 459 Reid Street PETERBOROUGH, Ontario K9H 4G7 The Town of Newcastle .,�h. gii an � t�s � � � rt ... . ....... . ............. ...... . .... ...................... . .......... . . ........................... .............................. ........................ . . ............................. ... ................. .......................... ... . .... ................................ .......................... ........................... .. ........................ ... . .......................... ................... .. ................ ... .... . ........................ ................. ........ ...................... .......................... ............... ........ M OBI TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Outline of the 1991 Annual Housing Report . . . . . . . . . . 1 2. ECONOMIC INDICATORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2.1 Labour Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2.2 Unemployment Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.3 Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.1 New Residential Units Created. . . . . . . . 6 3.2 Number of New Residential Units Created by Geographic Location . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.3 Future Location ofResidential Units . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 3.4 Value of New Residential Construction (1987-1991) . . . . . . 8 3.5 Various Dwelling Types Created . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.6 Residential Demolition Activity . . . . . . . . 11 3.7 Housing Starts For Selected Municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4. HOUSING SUPPLY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.1 Housing Supply by Status of Approval . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.2 Housing Supply by Housing Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.3 Comparison of Housing Supply and Demand . . . . . . . . . . . 15 5. LOCAL HOUSING MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 5.1 Housing Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 5.2 Resale Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 5.3 Housing Completions By Tenure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 5.4 Housing Starts by Tenure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 5.5 Vacancy Rates and Average Rents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 5.6 Rental Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 6. ASSISTED HOUSING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 6.1 Assisted Housing Projects in Process . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 7. CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 8. APPENDIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 111 P, j � I U INDEX OF TABLES Page Table 1 Labour Force and Unemployment Rate Oshawa Census Metropolitan Area (C.M.A. ) 2 Table 2 Interest and Exchange Rate (at Month's End) 5 Table 3 New Residential Units by Geographic Location 7 Table 4 Various Dwelling Types Created (1987 - 1991) 9 Table 5 Residential Demolition Activity 1987 - 1991 (Number of Dwelling Units) 11 Table 6 1990 and 1991 (January to December) Housing Starts for Single and Multiple Units in Selected Parts of the Greater Toronto Area 12 Table 7 Town of Newcastle Housing Supply Year End 1991 14 Table 8 Town of Newcastle Comparison of Short Term Supply and Demand 16 Table 9-15 Housing Prices for Various Housing Types 17- 19 Table 16 Resale Activity - Oshawa and District Real Estate Board 20 Table 17 Housing Completions by Tenure (January- October 1990 - 1991) 21 Table 18 Housing Starts by Tenure (January - October 1990 - 1991 21 Table 19 Vacancy Rates and Average Rents by Bedroom 22 Type - Oshawa C.M.A. , October 1990, 1991 Table 20 Assisted Housing Units by Area Municipality 23 Table 21 Town of Newcastle Assisted Housing Projects and Number of Units by Type of Program 24 iv INDEX OF FIGURES Page Figure 1 Labour Force Oshawa C.M.A. 1990-1991 3 Figure 2 Unemployment Rate Oshawa C.M.A. 1990 - 1991 3 Figure 3 Bank Rate/ 3-Yr. Mortgage Rate Monthly, 1990-91 5 Figure 4 No. of New Residential Units Created (1987 - 1991) 6 Figure 5 New Residential Units by Geographic Location (1987 - 1991) 7 Figure 6 New Residential Units Year End 19910 8 Figure 7 Value of New Residential Construction (1990-91) 8 Figure 8 Various Dwelling Types Created Approved & Proposed, Year End 1991 10 Figure 9 Approved Development Applications By Approval Status 13 V EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The major findings of the 1991 Town of Newcastle Annual Housing Report are as follows: • In 1991, the unemployment rate for Whitby/Oshawa/Newcastle averaged 9 . 5% in 1991. • The employed labour force averaged 99, 000 in 1991. • Interest rates and bank rates declined to their lowest levels in 20 years. At year end, the Bank Rate was 8. 98 percent and the 3 year Mortgage Rate was 9.57 percent. • The total number of new residential units created in 1991 amounted to 782 , representing a 31.8% increase from a year earlier. In the last five years, the total number of new residential units created was 5719, an average of 1144 units annually. • The value of residential construction in the Town of Newcastle increased to $77 . 41 million representing a 10. 1% increase from the previous year. • There has been a significant shift in the types of housing being constructed in the Town of Newcastle. Prior to 1990, the predominant form of housing constructed was single detached units. In 1991, the predominant form was semi- detached/link units comprising 39% of all dwelling units. This latter form of housing became predominant due to activity by first time homebuyers, a key component to the housing market over the past year. • The trend for compact housing will likely continue. Much of the approved and proposed developments is of a more dense housing form. Only 38% of the proposed housing stock is single detached, whereas 22% of proposed units are semi- detached/link dwellings, 24% are townhouses; and 16% are apartment units. • Twenty-six single-detached units were demolished in 1991. • The Town of Newcastle had 25. 3% of all housing starts in Durham Region. i • At year end 1991, the Town of Newcastle had a potential housing supply of 17,414 units consisting of existing lots, approved applications or applications under review. In other words, the approved and proposed applications would supply residential units for the next 16 years and generate a population of approximately 53, 000 persons, effectively doubling the current population. • At year end 1991, the Town of Newcastle had a total of 6,904 residential units which had some form of approval. On the basis of growth for the last five years, this amounts to a 6. 2 year supply of residential units. • The Town had 1, 295 vacant lots in registered plans of subdivision and 4, 280 residential units in draft approved plans of subdivision. Approximately 1, 329 residential units were approved by the Town through rezoning or plans of subdivision in 1991. • The average price of a detached bungalow, standard two- storey and standard townhouse in the Oshawa C.M.A. was as follows: detached - $145, 000; standard two-storey - $144, 000; and, standard townhouse - $108, 000. Prices have dropped to the lowest level since March 1988 . • The completions of new private rental units in the Oshawa C.M.A. increased during 1991. Housing starts of private rental units declined considerably, while the starts of assisted rental units increased. • The reported vacancy rate for rental housing in the Town of Newcastle was 3 . 4%. Average rents for 1, 2, and 3-bedroom units were $564, $630 and $609 respectively. • Assisted housing proposals have been submitted which would create 236 units (208 townhouse units, 26 apartments, 2 semis) . These proposals include a total of 13 barrier-free units for the physically handicapped. ii 1 ANNUAL HOUSING REPORT - 1991 1. INTRODUCTION The lack of affordable housing, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, was identified as a key problem in Ontario during the late 1980'x. As vacancy rates plummeted and housing prices escalated, the Province of Ontario focused on the municipal land use planning process as a mechanism to create affordable housing opportunities throughout Ontario. In July 1989, the Province of Ontario approved a Policy Statement on Land Use Planning for Housing whose primary objective was to provide for a sufficient supply of housing which is affordable, accessible and appropriate for the households of Ontario. The Policy Statement identified a number of priority areas, (including the Town of Newcastle) which were required to implement the Policy Statement. The Provincial Land Use Planning for Housing Policy Statement requires municipalities to examine their Official Plans to determine if changes are required. It also requires municipalities to monitor how the provisions of the Policy Statement are being achieved. In this regard, Staff is currently in the process of preparing housing policies for adoption in the Official Plan. Staff has also prepared a housing monitoring report which is the subject of this report. In future, Staff will be preparing an Annual Housing Report to monitor housing activity and to recommend any need for policy changes. 1.1 Outline of the 1991 Annual Housing Report The 1991 Annual Housing Report has been prepared to provide a summary of various forms of housing activity that occurred within the Town of Newcastle during the past year. The report is organized in the following format. Section 2 examines economic indicators that play an important role in determining housing demand and supply. Section 3 focuses on specific residential activity such as new construction, demolition activity and housing absorption. Section 4 profiles the current Newcastle housing supply by examining the housing starts and year end housing supply. Section 5 provides a picture of the local housing market including housing prices, resale activity, housing completions, vacancy rates and average rents. The final section focuses on assisted housing projects. This report has been prepared by the Strategic Planning Branch of the Department of Planning and Development. Any questions related to its contents should be directed to the Strategic Planning Branch (416)623- 3379. 2. ECONOMIC INDICATORS Economic indicators such as, the unemployment rate, interest rates, and exchange rates play an important role in determining housing demand and supply. 2.1 Labour Force Table 1 and Figure 1 presen employment data for the Oshawa Census Metropolitan Area (C.M.A. ) . During the first four months of 1991, the Oshawa Census Metropolitan Area (C.M.A. ) is comprised of Whitby, Oshawa, and Newcastle. J 2 total labour force (all employed and unemployed workers) remained constant at 105,000. The total increased to 112,000 persons in July, and then dropped slightly to 108,000 persons in August and once again increased to 116,000 persons in December. The number of workers actually employed in the labour force followed a fairly similar fluctuation pattern as the total labour force did. In January 1991, the employed labour force amounted to 100,000 which then decreased to 96,000 in May and June, and then rose steadily to 103,000 by December. Overall for 1991, the employed labour force averaged at 99,000 persons. TABLE 1 LABOUR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OSHAWA CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA (C.M.A.) LABOUR FORCE (0001S) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MONTH 1990 1991 1990 1991 Total Employed Total Employed Labour 1 Labour 2 Labour Labour Force Force Force Force January 107 102 105 100 4.8 8.0 February 107 103 105 98 5.5 9.3 March 108 103 105 97 6.0 10.4 April 105 103 105 96 6.2 11.5 May 108 102 106 96 6.4 10.9 June 109 101 108 96 6.5 10.2 July 108 100 112 97 6.8 9.9 August 112 99 108 97 7.5 9.5 September 109 99 113 99 7.8 9.0 October 110 100 111 101 7.7 8.1 November 110 101 114 103 7.5 8.4 December 109 100 116 103 7.7 9.0 AVERAGE ]E109 101 109 99 6.7 [: 9.:5::] Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC, Statistics Canada Note: Employment and Unemployment figures are seasonally adjusted 1. Total Labour Force refers to the total number of persons who are in the labour market, employed or unemployed. 2. Employed labour force refers to full-time and part-time workers, excluding persons on lay-off. 3. Unemployment rate refers to the unemployed labour force expressed as a percentage of total labour force. Unemployed labour force refers to persons who: i) are without work and are actively looking for work and are available for work; or .. ii) are on lay-off and expect to return to their job; or iii) have definite arrangementp to start a new job. n 3 Figure 1 ; Labour Force Oshawa C . M. A . 1990 - 1991 120 —F— Total 115 Employed 110 q 9 L 105 F- v q 0 100 H 95 90 J I M A M J J A S D N D 9 M A M J J A S 0 N D Month Figure 2 ; Unemployment Rate Oshawa C .M .A . [ 1990 - 1991D 14.0 12.0 Rate [fG] 10.0 8.0 u 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 J 9F M A M J J A 6 0 N D 9F M A M J J A S D N D Month Sources: CMHC Local Housing Market Report, Statistics Canada Prepared by Town of Newcastle Planning Department F, 4 2.2 Unemployment Rate As shown by Table 1 and Figure 2, the unemployment rate in 1991 started at 8.0% in January, peaked at 11.5% in April and then fell to 9.0% by year end. Overall the unemployment rate was 9.5% for 1991 compared to 6.7% for 1990. The increase in the unemployment rate during the latter part of 1990 and early 1991 was largely attributed to wide spread lay- offs (particularly in the automotive industry) , plant closures/shutdowns and business bankruptcies. A recent employment outlook survey3 of employers in the Region reveals that for the first quarter of 1992, approximately 62% of employers indicate that they have no plans to alter their number of staff;, 10% state that they have plans to hire new employees; 18% expect to reduce staff; and 10% are uncertain of their hiring intentions during the same period. While the Oshawa C.M.A. did have a peak unemployment rate of 11.5% in April, the employment situation marginally improved in recent months. However, the future employment situation is still unsure since the automotive sector is experiencing difficulty. A large number of people from Oshawa and Newcastle4 are employed in the automotive sector, particularly General Motors. General Motors recently announced a number of plant closures for North America and fortunately for the Oshawa C.M.A. , the Oshawa plant was spared. Despite this reprieve, Oshawa may still be faced with layoffs and possibly a plant closure in the future. 2.3 Interest Rates Prior to 1991, mortgage rates and interest rates were unattractively high, producing a negative effect on housing demand and affordability. Interest rates play a major role in determining housing affordability. For each 1% increase in interest rates, an additional 2.0% increase in household income must be allocated to accommodation costs. Table 2 and Figure 3 indicate that interest rates and mortgage rates decreased over the past year and a half. Mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in 20 years which should help to stimulate the housing market. The housing market will also be boosted by two announcements made in early 1992 by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the federal government. CMHC unveiled a plan to guarantee 95% financing for first time home buyers. This plan allows first time home buyers to put a 5% down payment on the purchase of a home. First time homebuyer activity should be further stimulated by the federal government's plan to allow homebuyers to use their Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) contributions (maximum $20,000) per individual to purchase a home. This plan is only in effect for one year and the money must be paid back to the RRSP in fifteen years. 2 The Department of Consumer and Corporate Affairs reported 50 bankruptcies at the end of December 1990 and 66 bankruptcies at the end of 1991. 3 Manpower Temporary Services, Employment Outlook Survey, December 3 , 1991, Oshawa Office. 4 Approximately 2, 815 Newcastle residents are employed by General Motors. 5 The combination of lower interest rates, recent government initiatives and some of the lowest housing prices in the Greater Toronto Area, should help to stimulate further growth and development in the Town of Newcastle. Despite the uncertainty surrounding General Motors, many of the new residents moving to the Town of Newcastle are not employed by General Motors. TABLE 2 INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATE (AT MONTH'S END) 1990 1991 Bank Mtge. Rate Bank Mtge. Rate Rate 3 Yr. Rate 3 Yr. MONTH Inst. Inst. January 12.29 12.02 10.73 12.25 February 13.25 12.42 9.97 11.69 March 13.51 12.93 9.92 11.47 April 13.80 13.67 9.49 11.26 May 13.92 14.27 9.06 11.04 June 13.90 14.26 8.90 11.00 July 13.48 14.20 8.94 11.00 August 12.92 13.85 8.78 10.99 September 12.65 13.53 8.59 10.89 October 12.66 13.23 8.04 10.52 November 12.26 13.10 7.66 9.95 December 11.72 12.50 7.67 9.57 AVERAGE 13.03 13.33 8.98 10.97 Figure 3 : Bank Pate/ 3-Yr . Mortgage Rate Monthly, 1990 - 1991 16.00 14.00 3 Yr. Rate t 12.00 Bank Rate 10.00 rA v y B.DO 6,00 4.00 2.00 0,00 J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N O Month Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC, Statistics Canada 6 3. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY 3.1 Number of New Residential Units Created The number of new residential units created during the period 1987 to 1991 is presented in Figure 4. Following a decrease in the number of residential units created in 1990, the construction industry rebounded slightly and created 782 units in 1991. This represents a 31.8% increase from the 594 units created in 1990. Figure 4 : No , of New Residential Units Created 01987 - 19911 2100 180D 1582 1501 402 1359 E 1200 900 782 0 x 60D 594 300 Affim D 1987 1989 1991 1988 1990 Year Source: Town of Newcastle, Planning and Development Department Monthly Permit Reports (1987 - 1991) 3.2 Number of New Residential Units Created by Geographic Location The total number of new residential units created during the period 1987 to 1991 was 5719 (see Table 3) . Bowmanville gained an average of 306 new housing units per year, while Courtice and Newcastle Village gained an average of 512 units and 136 units respectively. In the rural areas, Wilmot Creek Retirement Community gained an average of 50 units per year while the hamlets and other areas (former townships of Darlington and Clarke) gained 34 units and 104 units respectively. The total number of residential building permits issued for the entire Town averaged 1,144 housing units per year since 1987. ark � 0 7 TABLE 3 NEW RESIDENTIAL UNITS BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 TOTAL URBAN AREAS Bowmanville 365 347 181 199 440 1,532 Courtice 670 633 697 305 255 2,560 Newcastle Village 26 317 262 28 49 682 Subtotal. . . 1,061 1,297 1,140 532 744 4,774 RURAL AREAS Wilmot Creek 137 64 42 6 2 251 Hamlets 48 54 51 11 9 173 Other 156 167 126 45 27 521 Subtotal. . . 341 285 219 62 38 945 TOTAL 1,402 1,582 1,359 594 782 5,719 Overall, during the five year period between 1987 and 1991, the rural areas saw substantial growth (13.5%) , while the hamlets saw only a small percentage (3.0%) . In the urban areas, approximately 45% of the new residential units created were in the Courtice area (see Figure 5) . Although Bowmanville is the major urban centre, it acquired only 27% of new residential units. However, in 1991, a shift occurred and Bowmanville received 56% of all new residential units and Courtice received only 33%. Figure 5 : New Residential Units By Geographic Location 1987 - 1991 Courtfce (45%) Other (9%) Hamlete (3%) WTImt Creek (0) BowmafwIIle(27%) Newcastle Village(1296) Source: Town of Newcastle Planning & Development Department 8 3.3 Future Location of Residential Units In terms of the future, Bowmanville will be the dominant centre for residential growth (see Figure 6) . of all units approved or proposed, 55% are located in Bowmanville, totalling 9594 residential units. Courtice ranks second, hosting 25% of new residential units approved or proposed; a total of 4354 residential units. Newcastle Village hosts 17% of new residential units approved or proposed, whereas Hamlets and rural areas will accommodate very few residential units (3%) . Figure 6 ; New Residential Units Year End 1991 soon Approved 5000 n Proposed 4000 0 � 3000 w * 2000 'c 1000 0 BowrnanvlI I Nll"Waotle VII.agqe Courtice Ha051Bt6/RUral C,QoWaph 1 c Area Source: Town of Newcastle Planning & Development Department 3.4 Value of New Residential Construction (1987-1991) As shown by Figure 7, the value of residential construction in the Town of Newcastle decreased from $225.02 million in 1989 to $70.31 million in 1990 and then increased to $77.41 million in 1991. The increase from 1990 to 1991 amounted to 10.1%. Figure 7 ; Value of New Residential Construction (1987-1991) 250 225.02 200 n 162.11 150 — 112.87 100 70.31 77.41 50 M F///7///q F////M 0 W- 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Year Source: Town of Newcastle Planning & Development Department 9 3.5 Various Dwelling Types Created There has been a significant shift in the types of dwellings which have been built. Prior to 1990, most of the buildings created were single detached dwellings. In 1991, 39% of all new units were semi-detached/ link housing units, 23% were townhouse units, and only 37% were single detached units (see Table 4) . Overall the trend in housing has been to increased density of housing types. This trend is largely due to increased demand for affordable housing; however other factors such as declining household sizes and increasing elderly population may be significant. TABLE 4 VARIOUS DWELLING TYPES CREATED (1990-1991) 1990 1991 Single Detached 257 293 Semi-detached/Link 196 308 Townhouse 128 179 Multiple 7 0 Mobile 6 2 TOTAL 594 782 Source: Town of Newcastle Planning and Development Department * Townhouse units and single mobile units were classified under multiple during the years 1987, 1988, 1989. This trend will continue as evidenced by Figure 8, which indicates that housing stock in the approved and proposed developments is of a more dense housing form. More specifically, only 38% are single detached dwellings; 22% are semi-detached/link dwellings; 24% are townhouses; and, 16% are apartment units. �1 � 27 10 Figure B ; Various Dwelling Types Created ( 1990 - 1991) Singles (40%) Mobile(0%D Multiples (1%) Seim/Links (37%) Townhouses (22%) Approved & Proposed, Year End 1991 Singles (3B%) Seml/Links (22%) Apartments (16%) Townhouses (24%J Source: Town of Newcastle Planning & Development Department 11 3.6 Residential Demolition Activity Table 5 shows the number and type of dwelling units demolished in the Town of Newcastle between 1987 and 1991. There were 26 single-detached units demolished in 1991 compared to 24 detached units and 1 semi-detached unit in the previous year. Demolitions have occurred primarily in urban areas. The increase in demolitions in recent years is attributed to commercial and residential redevelopment of existing properties. TABLE 5 RESIDENTIAL DEMOLITION ACTIVITY 1987-1991 (NUMBER OF DWELLING UNITS) HOUSING TYPE 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Detached Dwelling 9 16 11 24 26 Semi-detached Dwelling 0 0 0 1 0 Row Housing 0 0 0 0 0 Apartment 0 0 2 0 0 TOTAL 91 16 13 25 26 Source: Town of Newcastle Planning and Development Department Monthly Building Reports 1987-1991 3.7 Housing Starts For Selected Municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area Housing starts refer to units where construction has advanced to a stage where full (100%) footings are in place. In the case of multiple unit structures, this definition of a start applies to the entire surface. As presented in Table 6, the Greater Toronto Area experienced a 2.5% increase in housing starts for both single and multiple units. Durham Region experienced a higher increase of 5.1%. In comparison to Durham Region, the Town of Newcastle experienced an -1.6% decline in housing starts, while the Town of Ajax experienced a increase of 46%. The City of Oshawa had a decrease of 1.0%, while the Towns of Whitby and Pickering posed increases of 44.6% and 31.2% respectively. In 1991, the Town of Newcastle had housing starts that consisted of 532 singles/links and 208 multiples. Collectively the municipalities of Newcastle (25.3%), Whitby (32.1%) and Pickering (16.7%) accounted for approximately 72% of the housing starts for single units in the Region of Durham. These same municipalities accounted for about 57% of the housing starts for multiples in Durham Region with Newcastle, Whitby and Pickering reporting percentages of 11.1%, 37.2%, 8.3% respectively. 12 TABLE 6 1990 AND 1991 (JANUARY TO DECEMBER) HOUSING STARTS FOR SINGLE AND MULTIPLE UNITS IN SELECTED PARTS OF THE GREATER TORONTO AREA Area Single Units Multiple Units Total 1990 1991 Change 1990 1991 Change 1990 1991 Change Greater Toronto Area 8,518 10,731 26.0% 12,713 11,022 -13.3% 21,231 21,753 2.5% Metro- Toronto 1,057 702 -33.6% 5,865 3,602 -38.6% 6,922 4,304 -37.8% York Region 2,583 3,401 31.7% 2,202 1,826 -17.1% 4,785 5,227 9.2% Peel Region 1,966 3,721 89.3% 2,112 2,019 - 4.4% 4,078 5,740 40.8% Halton Region 543 805 48.3% 1,120 1,702 52.0% 1,663 2,507 50.8% Durham Region 2,369 2,102 -11.3% 1,414 1,873 32.5% 3,783 3,975 5.1% Newcastle 577 532 - 7.8% 175 208 18.9% 752 740 - 1.6% Oshawa 99 177 78.8% 388 305 -21.4% 487 482 - 1.0% Whitby 554 676 22.0% 396 698 76.3% 950 1,374 44.6% Ajax 765 250 -67.3% 272 353 29.8% 1,037 603 41.9% Pickering 207 352 70.0% 181 157 -13.3% 388 509 31.2% Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CHMC) Local Housing Market Report Toronto Branch, December 1990 * Singles - includes single family detached units and link dwellings joined below grade * Multiples - includes all other dwellings 4. HOUSING SUPPLY 4.1 Housing Supply by Status of Approval At year end 1991, there were a total of 6904 residential units which had some form of approval (see Figure 9) . Of these units, 1295 represents vacant lots in registered plans of subdivision and 4280 residential units in draft approved plans of subdivision. 13 These latter two figures amount to a 5.1 year supply of land. The Provincial Land Use Planning For Housing policy statement recommends a 3 year minimum level of supply for draft approved and/or registered lots in plans of subdivision. This supply is deemed necessary to allow for future population growths and to ensure that sufficient quantities of housing are made available. In addition, there were 1329 residential units approved by the Town through rezoning or plans of subdivision. On the basis of growth for the last five years, this amounts to a 6.3 year supply of residential units. Overall, this results in a potential housing supply that is approximately twice the minimum level recommended in the Provincial Policy Statement. Figure 9 APPROVED DEVELOPMENT APPLICATIONS By Approval Status Draft Approved SUbdlvfsfore (42BO) Town Approved SLbdlvfsfons (444) Town Approved Rezoning(B85) Vacant Lots Tn Subdlvlsfons (1295) Source: Town of Newcastle Planning & Development Department 4.2 Housing Supply by Housing Type Table 7 indicates that the Town of Newcastle has a potential housing supply of 17,414 units. This would amount to a 16 year supply of residential units and generate a population of approximately 53,000 persons, effectively doubling the current population. The potential housing supply for the Town of Newcastle consists of the following types of housing units: Unit Type Number of Units % of Total Single Family 6,746 38.7 Semi-Detached 3,691 21.2 Townhouse 4,188 24.1 Apartment 2.789 16.0 Total 17,414 100.0 14 TABLE 7 TOWN OF NEWCASTLE HOUSING SUPPLY YEAR END 1991 BOWMANVILLE URBAN AREA TYPE OF DWELLING DEVELOPMENT STAGE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 237 280 213 0 730 REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 1,937 928 623 430 3,918 SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 183 217 400 TOWN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 0 0 0 S1B >>»>>< >? >>< > >># `.« `.?`:«':<« <`.< < « < «><'>< ? '`'# 1 s '# 1 `><`: :': ? >>#>< ski? ':':>`:?':%::::.t:::..::::::::::.::::.t.:::.0:.......::::::..t.10...::::: :::•::::::::::::::•:::::::::::::::.:.............. ................................................................................................................................................................................................... ....................................... UNITS IN THE PROPOSED STAGES 911 869 1,377 1,389 4,546 COURTICE URBAN AREA TYPE OF DWELLING DEVELOPMENT STAGE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 334 172 0 0 506 REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 144 125 0 0 269 SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 152 333 485 TOWN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 0 0 0 �aB{3't)!1'3?+ >< <><»»<<' ': «'z « ><<<':<«< s> >_»zz`:z<:`» < <<«>> 1'T$; '> '13%': :` '> '> •`. <'':> i#3 UNITS IN THE PROPROSED STAGES 1,053 931 731 379 3,094 t::::::::::::::::........................................................................ .................... NEWCASTLE VILLAGE URBAN AREA TYPE OF DWELLING DEVELOPMENT STAGE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 12 0 0 0 12 REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 42 0 0 0 42 SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 0 0 0 TOWN APPROVED UNITS 365 �0y 0 [0 365 S B: 3:' '.< ««......'z >» > > <>? E.................<z< < < < s < «<<«<z`<'>:tJ>``'z"```' `t'#}':`#``:`''`E`:>`:':'.`:<'#:FJ`: �`:#>f'` . UNITS IN THE PROPROSED STAGES* 1,232 386 909 41 2,568 ►...................................................................................................►.......... * Partial lots incorporated into plans of subdivision on the basis of road frontage. Future development block excluded. f q 1 15 TABLE 7 CONTINUED TOWN OF NEWCASTLE HOUSING SUPPLY YEAR END 1991 HAMLETS AND RURAL AREA TYPE OF DWELLING DEVELOPMENT STAGE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 47 0 0 0 47 REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 51 0 0 0 51 SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 0 0 0 TOWN APPROVED UNITS 79 0 0 0 79 5 .................................................................................................... .....7....::...:.:.:::::::::. ::::: :::::: ?...::.::::.::::. :....7. UNITS IN THE PROPOSED STAGES 302 0 0 0 302 :.......::::.::::......:::...........::::......::::::::::.............::.:::::::::::::::::: ::::.::::: TOWN OF NEWCASTLE - TOTAL TYPE OF DWELLING DEVELOPMENT STAGE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 630 452 213 0 1,295 REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 2,174 1,053 623 430 4,280 SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 335 550 885 TOWN APPROVED UNITS 444 0 0 0 444 UNITS IN THE PROPOSED STAGES 3,498 2,186 3,017 1,809 10,510 '('.`, �} ?i ii ??<;'E?:...................: :: :i::is i:::: i ::: iii i i::::>?:?#:s'::?::::?:::r.:: •:::::::"::.. ::;>•: ..... :::' :>:;:: : :•':::::>:i• :::::<:'::::::i::'>. .`'. Source: Town of Newcastle Planning and Development Department Of the 17,414 potential residential units, a number fall in urban expansion areas. For example, Newcastle Village has 371 units, Courtice has 1453 units, and Bowmanville has 1157 units which are proposed for areas included as expansion areas under the new Durham Region Official Plan. 4.3 Comparison of Housing Supply and Demand Table 8 compares the short term supply with the demand for housing over the next 10 years. As the table shows, the Town of Newcastle has enough units in the short term supply to last beyond 17.5 years. As evidenced from Table 8, single family dwelling units represent the largest share of the potential housing units, but not an overall majority. This is in contrast to past trends when single family dwelling units represented the majority of units created in Newcastle. 16 TABLE 8 TOWN OF NEWCASTLE COMPARISON OF SHORT TERM SUPPLY AND DEMAND Single Semi Detached Detached Townhouses Apartment Total Demand 1991-2001 5872 1938 1230 2126 11186 Supplied in 1991 295 308 179 0 782 1991 Year End Housing Supply 6746 3691 4188 2789 17414 Anticipated Inten- sification Unit 140 0 104 836 1080 Total Supply 7181 3999 4471 3625 19276 Surplus Deficit 1309 2061 3241 1499 8090 Source: J.L. Cox Planning Consultants Ltd. * Includes intensification units and units in the expansion areas i ` C 70 F ; 17 5. LOCAL HOUSING MARKET 5.1 Housing Prices The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices lists the average selling price for various housing types (see Appendix A for a Glossary) in cities across Canada. The average selling prices given in the following tables are based on new and resale houses in the City of Oshawa only. Royal LePage does not survey the Town of Newcastle, but based on past observations, it can be stated that Courtice housing prices are similar to Oshawa, while Bowmanville and Newcastle Village housing prices are approximately 5% below that of Oshawa. The average price of a detached bungalow, standard two-storey and standard townhouse in Oshawa/Courtice would be as follows: • detached - $145,000; • standard two-storey - $144,000; and, • standard townhouse - $108,000. Tables 9 to 15 show the average selling prices, estimated taxes, and rental costs for the following housing types: detached bungalow, executive detached two-storey, standard two-storey, standard townhouse, senior executive, standard condominium apartment, luxury condominium apartment. With some exceptions, the prices of all housing types have generally decreased in the past year. DETACHED jUNGALOW TABLE 9 Price Price Price % change Estimated Est Monthly Area Jan. 1992 3 mos. ago 1 yr. ago 1 Year Taxes Rental Oshawa $145,000 $148,000 $150,000 -3.3% $1,900 $ 900 Whitby $165,000 $170,000 $170,000 -2.9% $2,300 $ 900 Ajax $155,000 $165,000 $160,000 -3.1% $1,800 $1,000 Pickering $170,000 $175,000 $170,000 -- $2,000 $ 900 EXECUTIVE DETACHED TWO-STOREY TABLE 10 Price Price Price % change Estimated Est Monthly Area Jan. 1992 3 mos. ago 1 yr. ago 1 Year Taxes Rental Oshawa $180,000 $185,000 $190,000 -5.3% $2,900 $1,100 Whitby $200,000 $210,000 $195,000 +2.6% $3,000 $1,100 Ajax $190,000 $205,000 $190,000 -- $2,400 $1,000 Pickering $195,000 $200,000 $200,000 -2.5 $3,000 $1,000 18 STANDARD TWO-STOREY TABLE 11 Price Price Price % change Estimated Est. Montly Area Jan. 1992 3 mos. ago 1 yr. ago 1 Year Taxes Rental Oshawa $144,000 $148,000 $145,000 -0.7% $1,700 $ 800 Whitby $165,000 $175,000 $165,000 -- $2,300 $1,000 Ajax $168,000 $180,000 $170,000 -1.2% $1,800 $1,000 Pickering $165,000 $170,000 $165,000 -- $2,200 $ 800 STANDARD TOWNHOUSE TABLE 12 Price Price Price % change Estimated Est. Montly Area Jan. 1992 3 mos. ago 1 yr. ago 1 Year Taxes Rental Oshawa $108,000 $112,000 $110,000 -1.8% $1,180 $ 700 Whitby $135,000 $135,000 $140,000 -3.6% $2,000 $ 900 Ajax $125,000 $135,000 $130,000 -3.8% $1,200 $ 850 Pickering $120,000 1 $130,000 1 $130,000 -7.7% $1,450 $ 700 STANDARD CONDOMINIUM APARTMENT TABLE 13 Price Price Price % change Estimated Est. Montly Area Jan. 1992 3 mos. ago 1 yr. ago 1 Year Taxes Rental Oshawa $ 98,000 $103,000 $100,000 -2.0% $1,180 $ 700 Whitby $ -- $ -- $ -- -- $ -- $ -- Ajax $100,000 $115,000 $110,000 -9.1% $ 900 $ 850 Pickering $110,000 $120,000 $120,000 -8.3% $1,400 $ 700 19 LUXURY CONDOMINIUM APARTMENT TABLE 14 Price Price Price % change Estimated Est. Montly Area Jan. 1992 3 mos. ago 1 yr. ago 1 Year Taxes Rental Oshawa $230,000 $240,000 $240,000 -4.2% $3,000 $1,200 Whitby $ -- $ -- $ -- -- $ -- $ -- Ajax $ -- $ -- $ -- -- $ -- $ -- Pickering $170,000 $180,000 $ -- -- $2,000 $1,000 SENIOR EXECUTIVE TABLE 15 Price Price Price % change Estimated Est.Monthly Area Jan. 1992 3 mos. ago 1 yr. ago 1 Year Taxes Rental Oshawa $245,000 $255,000 $265,000 -7.5% $4,100 $1,200 Whitby $255,000 $275,000 $250,000 +2.0% $3,500 $1,300 Ajax $240,000 $270,000 $235,000 +2.1% $3,200 $1,200 Pickering $270,000 $280,000 $285,000 -5.3% $3,200 $1,400 Source: Royal LePage 5.2 Resale Activity Table 16 shows the Multiple Listing Services (MLS) Activity for selected months from January 1990 to November 1991 for Oshawa and district. Overall, the number of sales increased from 3,837 in 1990 to 5,627 for 1991. The number of listings declined from the previous year. In 1991, the number of listings increased steadily until June and then fluctuated for a number of months finally decreasing to $2,974 listings in November. The sales to listings ratio refers to the number of listings that result in sales. In 1991, the sales to listings ratio peaked at 32.2% in March and from there it declined fairly steadily to 9.7% in December. 20 The average house price in Oshawa and District decreased fairly consistently from a peak of $179,396 in January 1990 to $153,572 by December of 1990. This figure dropped even lower in January 1991, and then rose for a few months and then decreased steadily until October 1991 to a rate of $145,285. November saw a bit of an increase in this figure to $152,378, and then a decrease to $143,516, which is the lowest level recorded since March 1988. It should be noted that this average price reflects not only the decline in housing value, but more significantly, the type of houses being sold. In other words, if sales of smaller, less expensive homes is strong, the average price will decline. CMHC reports that the level of resales and prices are expected to improve in the early spring of 1992 because of: 1) lower interest rates; 2) CMHC's introduction of 95% financing for first time homebuyers; and 3) the federal government's announcement that first time homebuyers can use RRSP contributions (see Section 2.2 for discussion) . TABLE 16 RESALE ACTIVITY - OSHAWA AND DISTRICT REAL ESTATE BOARD 1990 1991 Number Number Sales to Average Number Number Sales to Average Month of Sales of Listings Listings Price of Sales of Listings Listings Price January 280 2,811 10.0% $179,396 363 2,635 13.8% $146,936 February 353 3,359 10.5% $178,720 687 2,646 26.0% $149,420 March 353 3,750 9.4% $170,009 853 2,653 32.2% $155,987 April 312 3,912 8.0% $173,114 773 2,872 26.9% $158,202 May 304 3,862 7.9% $172,238 544 3,063 17.7% $158,102 June 286 3,580 8.0% $163,792 403 3,194 12.6% $149,557 July 303 3,319 9.1% $168,892 380 3,054 12.4% $157,557 August 338 3,342 10.1% $157,839 331 2,961 11.2% $155,669 September 324 3,351 9.7% $159,533 366 3,186 11.5% $152,998 October 390 3,379 11.5% $158,280 348 3,257 10.7% $145,285 November 355 3,156 11.2% $150,279 331 2,974 11.1% $152,378 December 239 2,768 8.6% $153,572 248 2,546 9.7% $143,516 TOTAL 3,387 $165,375 5,627 $153,119 Jan-Dec N.B. 1) Total Active Listings Source: Oshawa and District Real Estate Board 5.3 Housing Completions By Tenure The completion of new private rental units helped to boost the vacancy rate in the Oshawa C.M.A. during 1991. Private completions increased from 159 during the period January to October 1990 to 226 during the same period in 1991 (see Table 17) . This amounted to a 2.1% increase in the private rental housing stock. The Town of Newcastle had only 7 private rental completions between January and October 1991, which is down from 14 units completed in the same period a year earlier. There were no assisted rental completions for any of the municipalities within the Oshawa C.M.A. 21 TABLE 17 HOUSING COMPLETIONS BY TENURE (JANUARY-OCTOBER 1990-1991) Year-to-date/ Private Assisted Year Freehold Condo Rental Rental Total Oshawa City Jan-Oct 1990 339 0 97 281 717 Jan-Oct 1991 202 0 119 0 321 Whitby Jan-Oct 1990 813 15 48 0 876 Jan-Oct 1991 661 286 100 0 1,047 Newcastle Jan-Oct 1990 940 0 14 0 954 Jan-Oct 1991 707 0 7 0 714 Oshawa CMA Jan-Oct 1990 2,092 15 159 281 2,547 Jan-Oct 1991 1,570 286 226 0 2,082 Source: CMHC Housing Report 5.4 Housing Starts by Tenure Housing starts in the Oshawa C.M.A. indicate that starts of private rental units in the City of Oshawa and the Town of Whitby declined considerably, while the starts of assisted rental units increased (see Table 18) . The decline in private rental starts is largely due to higher vacancy rates and weaker demand. The number of private rental starts in the Oshawa C.M.A. totalled only 28 units between January and October 1991, down from 422 units recorded in the same period a year earlier. A total of 574 assisted units were started between January 1990 and October 1991, up from the 38 units started in the same period a year earlier. No assisted units were produced in Newcastle during this period. TABLE 18 HOUSING STARTS BY TENURE (JANUARY-OCTOBER 1990-1991) Year-to-date/ Private Assisted Year Freehold Condo Rental Rental Total Oshawa City Jan-Oct 1990 121 14 192 38 365 Jan-Oct 1991 242 0 24 118 384 Whitby Jan-Oct 1990 504 144 227 0 875 Jan-Oct 1991 666 162 0 456 1,284 Newcastle Jan-Oct 1990 654 0 3 0 657 Jan-Oct 1991 504 0 4 0 508 Oshawa CMA Jan-Oct 1990 1,279 158 422 38 1,897 Jan-Oct 1991 1,412 162 28 574 2,176 Source: CMHC Housing Report �� 7 I' 22 5.5 Vacancy Rates and Average Rents The overall vacancy rate for all units in the Oshawa C.M.A. was 3.4% between January and October 1991 (see Table 19) . This means that 34 out of every 1000 units were vacant and available for rent. The City of Oshawa reported a vacancy rate of 3.3%, while the Towns of Whitby and Newcastle reported vacancy rates of 3.3 and 6.2% respectively. Newcastle had the following vacancy rates in 1991: 5.1% for 1-bedroom; 7.7% for 2-bedroom; and 0.0% for 3-bedroom. The average rents charged for bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom, and 3-bedroom units in the Oshawa C.M.A. were $490, $562, $641, and $719. Newcastle renters were charged on average $564 for a 1-bedroom unit, $630 for a 2-bedroom unit, and $609 for a 3-bedroom. TABLE 19 VACANCY RATES AND AVERAGE RENTS BY BEDROOM TYPE OSHAWA CMA, OCTOBER 1990, 1991 Bachelor 1 Bedroom 1 2 Bedroom 2 3 Bedroom 3 All Vac. Rate Bach Vac. Rate Bed- Vac. Rate Bed- Vac. Rate Bed- Units elor room room room Vac. Location !6.7 990 E7.9 Rent 1990 1991 Rent 1990 1991 Rent 1990 1991 Rent Rate Oshawa City $438 2.3 3.0 $548 1.2 3.3 $633 0.7 1.5 $724 3.3 Whitby 5.1 10.7 $576 2.5 3.5 $599 1.4 3.3 $674 0 0 $718 3.3 Newcastle 0 0 * 9.3 5.1 $564 2.4 7.7 $630 0 0 $609 6.2 Oshawa CMA 6.0 8.8 $490 2.6 3.2 $562 1.3 3.5 $641 0.5 1.1 $719 3.4 * Data not available because sample size is too small Source: CMHC Housing Report 5.6 Rental Outlook Assuming that the employment situation remains about the same in Oshawa, CMHC projects that the vacancy rate in the Oshawa C.M.A. will remain between the 3.0% and 4.0% level in 1992. The factors contributing to this forecast are: • Only a very modest economic recovery is forecasted for most of 1992 and as such, rental demand is expected to remain stable until the second half of 1993. • Low interest rates and the introduction of the 95% mortgage insurance by CMHC should encourage homeownership and will free up some rental supply as a result of new homebuyers leaving the rental market. • With high levels of rental housing currently under construction, the total rental supply will continue to expand during 1992 and 1993. '! ; ) 6 23 6. ASSISTED HOUSING Assisted Rental Housing stock in Durham Region has been built under a number of programs administered by the Provincial and Federal government. Table 20 identifies the total number of assisted housing units in the Region by area municipality in 1991. The total number of assisted housing units ranged from 90 in the Township of Brock to 2,509 in the City of Oshawa. The total number of assisted housing units in the Region for senior citizens and families was 2,028 and 2,765 units respectively, for a total number of 4,793 assisted units. Newcastle has 174 assisted senior citizen units and no family or special needs units. TABLE 20 ASSISTED HOUSING UNITS BY AREA MUNICIPALITY SENIOR AREA CITIZEN FAMILY TOTAL MUNICIPALITY UNITS UNITS UNITS AJAX 218 416 634 BROCK 90 24 114 NEWCASTLE 174 0 174 OSHAWA 836 1,673 2,509 PICKERING 130 190 320 SCUGOG 68 70 138 UXBRIDGE 91 0 91 WHITBY 421 392 813 DURHAM 2,028 2,765 4,793 Source: Durham Region Planning Department, June, 1991 The distribution of the 174 assisted senior citizen units within the Town of Newcastle is further broken down in Table 21. This table identifies the number of senior citizen and family units by type of program and level of assistance. 24 TABLE 21 TOWN OF NEWCASTLE ASSISTED HOUSING PROJECTS AND NUMBER OF UNITS BY TYPE OF PROGRAM SENIOR CITIZENS UNITS FAMILY UNITS Agencies That HOUSING HOUSING Administer Projects R.G.I. L.E.M. TOTAL PROGRAM R.G.I. L.E.M. TOTAL PROGRAM Durham County Senior Citizens 15 25 40 P.N.P. -- -- -- Lodge Durham Housing Authority 35 -- 35 P.H.P. -- -- -- Newcastle Lodge for Senior 15 28 43 P.N.P. -- -- -- Citizens & Families Canadian Foresters Project 56 -- 56 O.C.H.A.P. -- -- -- 121 53 174 0 0 0 Source: Ministry of Housing, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Durham Area Housing, Durham Region Housing, and Ajax Municipal Housing Notes: R.G.I. - Rent-Geared-To-Income L.E.M. - Low End of Market (Rent) P.N.P. - Private Non-Profit Housing Program P.H.P. - Public Housing Program O.C.H.A.P. - Ontario Community Housing Assistance Program 6.1 Assisted Housing Projects in Process The following is a list of assisted housing projects that are currently under construction or approved in the Town of Newcastle. Proposal Units Status Soper Court 60 townhouses Under Durham Region Non-Profit construction Bowmanville Co-op 42 townhouses Under 26 apartments construction Participation House 39 townhouses Ontario Municipal Board approved Bowmanville Heights 66 townhouses Under Durham Region Non-Profit construction Darcy House 2 semis Approved Durham Region Non-Profit (Monroe St. , Newcastle Vill. ) 25 7. CONCLUSIONS The 1991 Annual Housing Report was prepared to satisfy the requirements of the Policy Statement and to monitor residential activity in the Town. As with all municipalities in Durham Region, a flagging economy has had a major impact on the economy and the housing sector. Unemployment rates have risen, bankruptcies have increased, interest rates have decreased and housing prices have lowered. However, some benefit has arisen from the recession as the lowered interest rates and housing prices have increased the availability of affordable housing. Housing prices have lowered to the extent that most of the house prices are considered to be in the affordable range ($157,000 for this region) . In addition lower interest rates (lowest in twenty years) have allowed and will allow many first time homebuyers to come into the market. This in turn will free up some rental supply allowing the overall supply to expand during 1992 and 1993. This should help to ease affordability problems for renters. Lower interest rates in combination with recent government initiatives should help to bolster the housing market. These factors should be particularly beneficial for the Town of Newcastle since housing prices here are already considerably lower than the remaining GTA, thus making Newcastle very attractive for GTA residents seeking affordable housing. The attractiveness of the Newcastle market is reflected by the fact that the Town has grown at a rate of 2,700 persons annually since 1986. Presently, the Town has a total of 17,414 residential units which are approved or under consideration. This short term supply would last the Town for the next 16 years. Of these units, approximately 60% are low density (singles - 38%, semis/links - 22%) , 24% are medium density (townhouses) and 16% are high density (apartments) . Given that the timing of some of the high density condominium projects is uncertain, these units adequately meet the draft Municipal Housing Statement's targets of 70% low density, 20% medium density, and 10% high density. The Provincial Land Use Planning for Housing Policy Statement recommends a 3 year minimum supply level for draft approved and/or registered lots in plans of subdivision. This supply is deemed necessary to allow for future population growths and to ensure that sufficient quantities of housing are made available. Based on growth rates for the last five years, the 5575 registered and Regional draft approved units equate to approximately a 5.1 year supply of units. When units that are draft approved by the Town are included, the amount increases to a 6.2 year supply of residential units which is approximately twice the minimum level recommended by the Provincial Policy Statement. Assisted housing projects are beginning to come on stream in Newcastle. Over the next few years, additional projects in Courtice and Bowmanville will contribute to the supply of housing for all income groups in the Town. This will assist the Town in providing the diversity of housing types essential for meeting both the needs of the Town's residents and the needs of prospective industry. As stated previously, municipalities are required to monitor how the provisions of the Policy Statement are being met on an annual basis. A report was prepared for year end 1991 and in the future, reports will be prepared on an annual basis. Based on the results of the 1991 Annual Housing Report, it can be said that in 1991 the Town of Newcastle generally fulfilled its obligation in meeting the need for affordable housing. 7 0 APPENDIX 26 ,� G1 0 ssary of Housing Types n Detached Bungalow A detached,three-bedroom single storey home with 11h bathrooms and a one-car garage. It has a full basement but no recreation room,fireplace or appliances.Using outside dimensions(excluding garage),the total area of the house is 111 sq.metres(1,200 s%ft.) and it is situated on a full-serviced,511 sq.metre(5,500 sq.ft.)lot.Depending on the area, the construction style maybe brick,wood,siding,or stucco. . ,.. - Executive Detached Two-Storey A detached two-storey,four-bedroom home with 21/2 bathrooms,amain floor family room, one fireplace,and an attached two-car garage.There is a full basement but no recreation room or appliances.Using the exterior dimensions(excluding garage),the total area of the house is 186 sq.metres(2,000 sq.ft.),and it is situated on a fully-serviced,604 sq.metres _ - (6,500 sq.ft.)lot.Depending on the area,the construction style may be brick,wood,alu- ,r minuet siding,stucco,or a combination like brick and siding. �. Standard Two-Storey A three-bedroom,two-storey home with a detached garage.It has a full basement but no recreation room.Using outside dimensions,the total area of the house is 139 sq.metres (1,500 sq.ft.)and ft is situated on a fully-serviced,city-sized lot of approximately 325 sq. metres(3,500 sq.ft.).The house may be detached or semi-detached and construction style maybe brick,wood,siding,or stucco. `� �... Standard Townhouse Either condominium or freehold,the townhouse(rowhouse)has three bedrooms,a living MCI __ room and dining room(possibly combined)and a kitchen.Also included are 1112 bath- rooms,standard broadloom,a one-car garage,a full unfinished basement and two appliances.Total inside area is 92 sq.metres(1,000 sq.ft.).Depending on the area,the construction may be brick,wood,siding or stucco. Senior Executive A two-storey,four or five bedroom home with three bathrooms,main floor family room plus atrium or library.Two fireplaces,a full unfinished basement and an attached two-car garage.The house is 279+sq.metres(3,000+sq.ft.)and is situated on a fully serviced 627 sq.metre(6,750 sq.ft.)lot.Construction maybe brick,stucco,siding,or in combination. . �. Standard Condominium Apartment f A two-bedroom apartment comprising a living room,a dining room(possibly combined) ff and a kitchen,in a high-rise building with an inside floor area of 84 sq.metres(900 sq.ft). Amenities include standard broadloom,11/2 bathrooms,2 appliances,a small balcony and 1 underground parking space.Common area includes a pool and some minor recreational facilities. Luxury Condominium Apartment A two-bedroom apartment comprising a living room,a dining room(possibly combined), and a kitchen,with a family room or den,in a high-rise building with an inside floor area of 130 sq.metres(1,400 sq.ft.).Amenities include upgraded broadloom,2 full bathrooms, ensuite laundry and storage areas,5 appliances,a large balcony and 1 underground park- 2 in space.Common area includes a pool,sauna and other major recreational facilities. r w. 0