HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-05-31
Electronic Council Communications Information
Package
Date:May 31, 2024
Time:12:00 PM
Location:ECCIP is an information package and not a meeting.
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Pages
1.Region of Durham Correspondence
1.1 Monitoring of Growth Trends #2024-INFO-38 - May 24, 2024 3
1.2 Steven Kemp, Manager, Traffic, Engineering and Operations - Request
to Reduce Speed Limit in School Zones - May 27, 2024
8
2.Durham Municipalities Correspondence
3.Other Municipalities Correspondence
4.Provincial / Federal Government and their Agency Correspondence
5.Miscellaneous Correspondence
May 31, 2024
Electronic Council Communications Information Package (ECCIP)
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If this information is required in an accessible format, please contact 1-800-372-1102 ext. 2564
The Regional Municipality of Durham
Information Report
From:
Report:
Date:
Commissioner of Planning and Economic Development
#2024-INFO-38
May 24, 2024
Subject:
Monitoring of Growth Trends, File: D01-02-01
Recommendation:
Receive for information
Report:
1.Purpose
1.1 This report is the first of two biannual reports monitoring growth trends in Durham. It
presents historical population and household data for the Region and area
municipalities for the 2019 to 2023 period.
1.2 The data is provided for the end of May to correspond with the timing of a Census
and for December. Information presented in this report is intended for use in various
Regional background studies and programs as well as other agency initiatives.
2.Previous Reports and Decisions
2.1 Monitoring of Growth Trends (2023-INFO-51)
2.2 Monitoring of Growth Trends (2023-INFO-102)
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3. Historical population and household estimates (2019-2023)
3.1 The population and household estimates presented in Attachment 1 are based on:
• Statistics Canada Census information for 2016 and 2021 including an estimate
for net undercoverage1;
• Statistics Canada Annual Demographic Estimates that are published on the
Durham Region Population Data Tracker2;
• Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) monthly housing
completion data; and
• Building permits issued for residential demolitions.
3.2 Base-year household estimates are founded on information from the Statistics
Canada Census. Household estimates for 2016 and 2021 are based on the
Statistics Canada Census counts for “Private dwellings occupied by usual
residents”.
3.3 For interim years, CMHC housing completions are used to approximate the number
of new households added each year. Housing completions are also the basis for
estimating population growth where population estimates are not available from
Statistics Canada3.
3.4 The Statistics Canada Annual Demographic Estimates are calculated from federal
records for births, deaths, immigration and emigration. The Health Department
receives data from the Ministry of Heath and Long-term Care that based on the
same Statistics Canada reporting, to inform their demographic analysis.
3.5 The process for estimating population and households also considers the impact of
vacant homes, short-term rentals and dwellings occupied by non-permanent
residents such as international students and temporary foreign workers. To account
for this, household estimates are calibrated with a conservative vacancy rate (0.5%)
for new residential units.
1. Net undercoverage refers to the net population counts that are missed during the Census enumeration due to persons with no usual residence, incorrect questionnaires, missed dwellings, away from home, etc.2. For years where population estimates are not published on the Data Tracker, household growth is used to approximate the increase in population. At the time this report was prepared, population estimates since 2021 were not available through the Data Tracker.3. Durham Regional Health Department receives population estimates from the Province, that are based on Statistics Canada’s annual population estimate for July 1st. This information is used to interpolate the population for May 31st and December 31st.
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3.6 The semi-annual population estimates presented in Attachment 1, indicate that the
Region’s annual population growth increased by 9,995 persons in 2023, which is
lower than the five-year average (12,390). The growth rate last year was 1.35%.
Comparatively, the average annual population growth for the five-year period from
2019 to 2023 was 1.73%.
3.7 The semi-annual household estimates presented in Attachment 1, indicate that the
Region’s annual household growth increased by 3,395 households from 2022 to
2023, representing a growth rate of 1.36%. Comparatively, the annual household
growth for the five-year period from 2019 to 2023 was also 1.36%.
4. Relationship to Strategic Plan
4.1 This report aligns with/addresses the following strategic goals and priorities in the
Durham Region Strategic Plan:
a. Priority 5.1 (Service Excellence) – Optimize resources and partnerships to
deliver exceptional quality services and value; and
b. Priority 5.3 (Service Excellence) – Demonstrate commitment to continuous
quality improvement and communicating results.
5. Conclusion
5.1 Council will continue to be kept apprised of emerging population and household
data and trends through regular updates of this information.
5.2 A copy of this report will be forwarded to the Area Municipalities, the Durham
Regional Police Services, the Ontario Health Home and Community Care Support
Services (formerly Local Health Integration Network) and the School Boards in
Durham.
6. Attachments
Attachment #1: Semi-annual Population Estimates, 2019-2023 and Semi-annual
Household Estimates, 2019-2023.
Respectfully submitted,
Original signed by
Brian Bridgeman, MCIP, RPP, PLE
Commissioner of Planning and
Economic Development
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Attachment 1
Note: All figures rounded
Source: Statistics Canada Census, Annual Demographic, CMHC monthly housing
completions data and building permit records.
Table 1
Semi-annual Population Estimates, 2019-2023 (May and December)
Year Ajax Brock Clarington Oshawa Pickering Scugog Uxbridge Whitby Durham
2019
(May)
129,670 12,640 100,215 175,040 98,590 22,080 22,245 136,905 697,385
2019
(Dec)
130,235 12,720 101,650 176,505 99,595 22,115 22,290 138,120 703,230
2020
(May)
132,305 12,910 102,000 179,135 101,310 22,140 22,205 140,755 712,760
2020
(Dec)
132,705 12,850 102,865 179,530 103,755 22,175 22,275 142,630 718,785
2021
(May)
134,225 13,700 104,080 181,080 103,240 22,565 22,350 144,790 726,030
2021
(Dec)
134,630 13,725 105,525 182,210 103,985 22,550 22,360 147,220 732,210
2022
(May)
134,990 13,735 106,195 182,935 104,635 22,535 22,435 149,250 736,705
2022
(Dec)
135,615 13,755 107,220 185,275 105,185 22,520 22,510 151,010 743,095
2023
(May)
135,930 13,760 107,770 187,080 106,505 22,505 22,605 152,340 748,495
2023
(Dec)
136,335 13,790 108,285 188,900 106,430 22,505 22,730 154,115 753,090
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Attachment 1
Note: All figures rounded
Source: Statistics Canada Census, Annual Demographic, CMHC monthly housing
completions data and building permit records.
Table 2
Semi-annual Household Estimates, 2019-2023 (May and December)
Year Ajax Brock Clarington Oshawa Pickering Scugog Uxbridge Whitby Durham
2019
(May)
38,740 4,625 34,725 65,765 32,065 8,245 7,925 44,610 236,710
2019
(Dec)
38,910 4,640 35,180 66,330 32,380 8,255 7,945 44,975 238,620
2020
(May)
39,325 4,685 35,460 66,405 32,510 8,260 7,960 45,550 240,160
2020
(Dec)
39,450 4,785 35,730 66,595 33,215 8,275 7,990 46,110 242,140
2021
(May)
39,490 4,790 35,955 66,635 33,425 8,290 8,010 46,460 243,050
2021
(Dec)
39,610 4,795 36,455 67,050 33,665 8,285 8,010 47,240 245,110
2022
(May)
39,715 4,800 36,685 67,315 33,875 8,280 8,035 47,890 246,600
2022
(Dec)
39,895 4,805 37,040 68,175 34,055 8,275 8,065 48,455 248,770
2023
(May)
39,990 4,810 37,230 68,840 34,480 8,270 8,100 48,880 250,600
2023
(Dec)
40,110 4,820 37,405 69,510 34,455 8,270 8,145 49,450 252,170
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