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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD-127-96THE CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON DN: HOUSING.GPA ry REPORT Meeting: General Purpose and Administration Committee File # Date: Monday, September 23, 1996 Res. #G Report #: PD- 127 -96 File #: PLN 11.1 HOUSING • •- REPORT FILE: PLN 11.1 Recommendations: By-law # It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee recommend to Council the following: 1. THAT Report PD- 127 -96 be received for information. 1. The Clarington Official Plan states that the goal for housing is to provide a broad range of housing within urban areas and rural settlements to meet the housing needs of current and future residents as they evolve over time. To achieve this goal, the Official Plan requires the preparation of an annual housing report to monitor the progress made towards fulfilling the Municipality's housing objectives of an adequate and affordable range of housing. 2. In previous years Clarington prepared annual housing reports to monitor the housing activities in Clarington. However, during the term of the Official Plan review process, separate reports were not presented to Council, but were incorporated into the review process. 3. Now that the Official Plan has been adopted by Council, a 1995 Housing Monitoring Report has been completed by the Planning and Development Department. A copy of the 1995 Housing Monitoring Report is attached to this REPORT NO. PD- 127 -96 PAGE 2 report. Since the 1995 Housing Monitoring Report is quite lengthy, an executive summary has been provided at the beginning of the document to assist the reader. 4. The 1995 Housing Monitoring Report concluded that compared to a few years ago, the housing market in Canada and in Durham Region is doing poorly because of a soft economy, volatile financial markets, falling levels of disposable income and poor consumer confidence due to high unemployment levels caused by continuous government and private sector cuts. 5. On the positive side however, the level of housing affordability is the best that it has been in many years mainly due to lower interest rates and reduced house prices. The level of affordability is expected to continue showing improvement and may result in the housing market showing signs of recovery. 6. The levels of affordabilty have benefited the Municipality of Clarington since these levels have enabled Clarington to meet its objective of providing a good variety of housing types and tenure at an acceptable affordability range. The former Ministry of Housing has announced that the affordable price of a house in this area is $163,500 and that the affordable rent is $1,100. In the Oshawa Census Metropolitan Area (Oshawa, Whitby, Clarington), the average price of a home is approximately $142,000, while rent is $795 for a 3 bedroom apartment. Both figures are well within the acceptable affordability range for this area. 7. While rental units were affordable in 1995 and will remain so for most of 1995, they may well not be affordable in 1997. The present provincial government is proposing to remove rent controls and is instituting a program which they state will "protect tenants ". The government plans to cap rent increases for tenants in their existing units but to allow landlords to increase rents to the market rate when REPORT NO. PD- 127 -96 PAGE 3 a new tenant moves in. The cap would then be reinstated for the new tenant. Another proposal is to abolish rent controls for new rental buildings. Under the present rules, new buildings become rent controlled after five years. Respectfully submitted, Franklin Wu, M.C.I.P., R.P.P., Director of Planning and Development TH *DC *FW *cc Attach. September 13, 1996 Reviewed by, W. H. Stockwell Chief Administrative Officer EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The major findings of the Municipality of Clarington 1995 Housing Monitoring Report are as follows: • In 1995, the unemployment rate for the Oshawa Census Metropolitan Area was 8.5 %. • Workers between the ages of 15 -25 were the hardest hit by unemployment which results in a reduction in the formation of new households. Ultimately a reduction in new households causes a slowdown in housing construction. • Eventually as the housing market recovers, the greatest increases in demand will be for rental housing rather than homeownership due to high levels of youth unemployment. • Housing markets are increasingly driven by first -time buyers who are most affected by worsening economic conditions and most affected by affordability levels. • The 1995 bank mortgage and three year bank rates were 7.31% and 8.88 %. The decline in interest rates and the expectations that rates will come down a bit further in 1996, should have a favourable impact on housing sales and on new housing starts later in 1996 and in 1997. • The national housing market, like the economy as a whole, is suffering from a collapse in consumer confidence caused by high unemployment, continuing government cuts and declining disposable income. • Approximately 447 building permits were issued in Clarington in 1995. • Between 1991 and 1995, 92.4% of the building permits issued were for units in Bowmanville and Courtice. The majority (55.5 %) of these permits were for units in Bowmanville, while 36.5% of the permits were for units in Courtice. • In 1995, the value of residential construction in Clarington amounted in $39.14 million. • The majority of residential units being provided in Clarington between 1991 and 1995 were semi- detached /link and townhouse units. In 1995, these housing types comprised 59% of all units. • Between 1991 and 1995, the number of residential demolitions carried out in Clarington remained constant with an average of 17 demolitions per year. • At year end 1995, Clarington had a total of 6,525 residential units which had some form of approval. Of the 6,525 units, 928 (14.2 %) were registered or unbuilt lots, 5220 (80 %) units had municipal or draft approval, and 377 (6 %) were active site plan applications. • By the end of 1995, the Municipality of Clarington had a potential housing supply of 14,469 vacant lots which provides a supply for the next 3.8 to 9.5 years. • Clarington has a potential supply of singles units for the next 2.9 to 15.7 years. • Royal LePage reports that the average price of a detached bungalow, standard two - storey house and standard townhouse in the Oshawa C.M.A. was respectively $144,000, $140,000 and $97,000. Generally, prices have dropped from 1991. _2_ • The number of sales and listings declined by 5.4% and 8,9% from 1994 and 1995. The Oshawa Real Estate Board estimates that the average selling price in the area also declined from $141,692 to $140,728. • The decline in house prices has resulted in the average house price being below the affordable house price of $163,500 set for this area by the former Ministry of Housing in 1995. • Clarington did not have any completions of either private rental or assisted rental units in 1995, but did have 39 assisted rental units started between January and October. • The number of 2 and 3 bedroom apartments occupied has increased indicating a slowdown of renters moving into homeownership. • The rental vacancy rate experienced wide fluctuations while the rent increased for all bedroom types. Between 1994 and 1995, rent for a 1 bedroom unit in Clarington increased 7.15% to $588; for a 2 bedroom unit it increased 5.29% to $662, and for a 3 bedroom unit it increased 7.3% to $795. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ........................ ............................... 1 1.1 Outline of the 1995 Housing Monitoring Report ........................... 1 2. ECONOMIC INDICATORS ................ ............................... 1 2.1 Unemployment Rate ............... ............................... 1 2.2 Interest Rates ..................... ............................... 3 3. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY ..... ............................... 4 3.1 Residential Building Permits Issued .... ............................... 5 3.2 Residential Building Permits Issued by Geographic Location ................. 6 3.3 Value of New Residential Construction .. ............................... 7 3.4 Various Dwelling Types Created ...... ............................... 8 3.5 Residential Demolition Activity ........ ............................... 8 3.6 Housing Starts for Selected Municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area ......... 9 4. HOUSING SUPPLY ...................... ............................... 11 4.1 Housing Supply by Status of Approval .. ............................... 11 4.2 Housing Supply by Housing Type ..... ............................... 11 5. LOCAL HOUSING MARKET ............... ............................... 16 5.1 Housing Prices ............................... I ............. I..... 16 5.2 Resale Activity .................... ............................... 19 6. RENTAL MARKET ....................... ............................... 19 6.1 Housing Completions by Tenure ...... ............................... 19 6.2 Housing Starts by Tenure ............ ............................... 20 6.3 Vacancy Rates and Average Rents ..... ............................... 20 6.4 Rental Market Outlook .............. ............................... 22 6.5 Affordability ...................... ............................... 22 6.6 Affordable House Price and Rent ...... ............................... 23 7. CONCLUSION .......................... ...........................I... 24 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1 Permits Issued By Geographic Location ............. ............................... 6 TABLE 2 Various Dwelling Types Created (1991 -1995) .................................. ............................... 8 TABLE 3 Residential Demolition Activity 1987 -1991 (Number of Dwelling Units) .............. ............................... 9 TABLE 4 1994 and 1995 (January to December) Housing Starts for Single and Multiple Units in Selected Parts of the Greater Toronto Area ...................................................... 10 TABLE 5 Municipality of Clarington Development Applications YearEnd 1995 ................................ ............................... 12 TABLE 6 Potential Housing Supply ........................ ............................... 13 TABLE 7 Average Selling Price Detached Bungalow ............................ ............................... 17 TABLE 8 Average Selling Price Executive Detached Two- Storey ................... ............................... 17 TABLE 9 Average Selling Price Luxury Condominium Apartment .................. ............................... 17 TABLE 10 Average Selling Price Standard Two - Storey ........................... ............................... 18 TABLE 11 Average Selling Price Standard Townhouse ........................... ............................... 18 TABLE 12 Average Selling Price Standard Condominium Apartment ................. ............................... 18 TABLE 13 Average Selling Price SeniorExecutive .............................. ............................... 18 LIST OF TABLES (Cont'd) TABLE 14 ResaleActivity ................................ ............................... 19 TABLE 15 Housing Completions by Tenure (January- December 1994, January- October 1995) ........... 19 TABLE 16 Housing Starts by Tenure (January- December 1994, January- October 1995) ................ 20 TABLE 17 Vacancy Rates and Average Rents by Bedroom Type Oshawa CMA, October 1994, 1995 ................. ............................... 21 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1 Unemployment Rate Oshawa C.M.A. (1994 -1995) .............. I ...................... 2 FIGURE 2 Bank Rate /3 -Year Mortgage Rate Monthly (1994 -1995) .. ............................... 4 FIGURE 3 Number of Residential Units Created (1991 -1995) ...... ............................... 5 FIGURE 4 Permits Issued by Geographic Location ............. ............................... 7 FIGURE 5 Value of New Residential Construction (1991 -1995) .... ............................... 7 FIGURE 6 Approved Development Applications by Approval Status . ............................... 11 FIGURE 7 Supply of Singles - Durham Region ................ ............................... 14 FIGURE 8 Supply of Semis - Durham Region ................. ............................... 14 FIGURE 9 Supply of Townhouses - Durham Region ............ ............................... 15 FIGURE 10 Supply of Apartments - Durham Region ............. ............................... 16 NCO 1995 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT 1. INTRODUCTION The Clarington Official Plan states that the goal for housing is to provide a range of housing to meet the housing needs of current and future residents. To acheive this goal, the Official Plan requires the preparation of an annual housing report to monitor the progress made towards fulfilling the Municipality's housing objectives of an adequate and affordable range of housing. 1.1 Outline of the 1995 Housing Monitoring Report The 1995 Housing Monitoring Report is organized in the following format. Section 2 examines economic indicators that play an important role in determining housing demand and supply. Section 3 focuses on specific residential activity such as new construction, demolition activity and housing absorption. Section 4 profiles the current Clarington housing supply and Section 5 provides a picture of the local housing market. Section 6 focuses on assisted housing projects. This report has been prepared by the Community Planning Branch of the Department of Planning and Development. Any questions related to its contents should be directed to the Community Planning Branch (905) 623 -3379. Please note, that the statistics reported in this document are taken from 1995 year end data. 2. ECONOMIC INDICATORS Economic indicators such as the unemployment rate, interest rates, and mortgage rates play an important role in determining housing demand, supply, and affordability because they impact on the economy in such a strong way. Overall, the Canadian economy slowed abruptly in 1995 - the result of the combined impact of a slowing U.S. economy, higher Canadian interest rates early in the year and fiscal restraint by the federal and most provincial governments aimed at lowering their large budget deficits. 2.1 Unemployment Rate In 1995, 80,000 jobs were created in Canada, and the national employment level increased from 2,043,000 to 2,123,000. Between 1994 and 1995, the unemployment rate in the Oshawa C.M.A.' declined from an annual average of 9.9% in 1994 to 8.5% in 1995 (see Figure 1). The ' Oshawa Census Metropolitan Area (C.M.A.) is comprised of Whitby, Oshawa, and Clarington. in employment/population ratio remained around 63% for the entire year which means that only 63% of the total population was employed. 16.0 • 14.❑ 12.0 10,0 v y 8,0 N 6.0 9.0 2.0 0.0 FIGURE 1 Unemployment Rate Oshawa C.M.A. C1994 - 1995D J'84 M M J S N J'85 M M J S N F A J A O D F A J A O D Month Rate C %) Source; CMHC - Local Housing Market Report, December, 1995 CMHC notes that the group hardest hit by unemployment was the youngest group of workers between the ages of 15 - 24 who experienced the largest decline in employment of any age group. Youth employment is particulary important to consider in the economy since high youth unemployment has a negative impact on household formation and demand for housing. Fewer younger people are able to enter the housing market because they cannot create their own households and instead must share with parents or friends. CMHC has noted that the "headship rate" or rate of household formation was lower in 1991 than in 1971. In fact, CMHC states that the reductions in the headship rates for the youngest age groups is the main reason for the slowdown in housing construction in the 1990's. The problem of low housing construction is exacerbated by the fact that "move -up" buyers are hesitant to take on larger mortgages and consequently, housing markets are increasingly driven E! by first -time buyers, First -time buyers are of course one of the groups most affected by worsening economic conditions and most affected by affordability levels. CMHC expects employment to grow in 1996, by about 55,000 jobs. In the local area, an employment outlook survey from Canada Manpower found that in the last quarter of 1995, 22 employers in Durham Region had plans to hire while 52 employers stated no changes were to take place. Approximately 13 employers indicated that they had plans to reduce their workforce and a further 13 were uncertain of their hiring intentions for the same period. For a more long term prediction, CMHC predicts that later in this decade, household formation rates will stabilize and housing demand will rebound. Most of the initial growth in demand will come from young people who suffered the most during the recession. However, young people are more likely to rent than own and therefore as the housing recovery unfolds, the greatest increases in demand will be for rental housing rather than for homeownership. This will be a significant change from the first half of this decade when the demand for rental housing was weak and the demand for homeownership was strong. 2.2 Interest Rates Interest rates play a critical role in determining housing affordability. For each 1% increase in interest rates, an additional 2.0% increase in household income must be allocated to accommodation costs. Conversely, a 1% decrease in interest rates means a savings of 2.0% in household income. In the late 80's and early 90's, the average bank mortgage and three year bank rates were unattractively high with numbers such as 13.03% and 13.33 %. These rates produced a negative effect on housing demand and affordability. In recent years, the bank mortgage rates and three year bank rates have fallen from the double digit rates of the early 90's. In 1994, the average bank mortgage and three year bank rates were 5.80% and 8.82 %, while in 1995 the rates were 7.31% and 8.88% (see Figure 2). The Royal Bank of Canada has reported that despite the fact that recent mortgage rates did not go anywhere near the high levels of 1989 and 1990 in nominal terms, they soared in real terms. Real five -year rates actually moved above their 1990 peaks in 1994. K No W FIGURE 2 Bank Rate/3-Year Mortgage Rate 12.00 10.00 8.00 N +' 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Monthly, 1994 -1995 J'94 M M J S N J'95 M M J S N F A J A 0 D F A J A 0 D Month Bank Rate 3-Yr, Rate Source: CMHC - Local Housing Market Report, December, 1995 The decline in interest rates through 1995 and expectations that rates will come down a bit further in 1996, should have a favourable impact on housing sales and on new housing starts later in 1996 and in 1997. 3. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) estimated that in 1995, construction of new housing in Canada had hit a 35 -year low despite a modest upturn in the final two months. Analysts have said that the national housing market, like the economy as a whole, is suffering from a collapse in consumer confidence caused by high unemployment, continuing government cuts and declining disposable income. 4 '6.3 4 Michel Laurence,' a housing agency economist, cited other reasons for the dismal trends including: • population growth is slower in the mid- 1990's than it was in the two previous decades, reducing the pool of potential home buyers; • the current generation of young adults is turning away from home ownership possibly because of limited job prospects which make owning a home less affordable; and, • houses do not appreciate in value as they once did and consequently the incentive to invest in a home is not there right now as it was in the '70s and '80s, when house prices were moving up. 3.1 Residential Building Permits Issued in Clarington The number of building permits issued for new residential units during the period 1991 - 1995 is presented in Figure 3. In 1994, the number of building permits issued amounted to 834 while in 1995, this figure decreased to an all time low of 447 permits. Over the five year period, the average number of building permits issued for new residential units was 684. 900 800 700 p 600 N L L 500 d a q 400 0 # 300 200 100 0 FIGURE 3 # of Residential Units Created C1991 - 1995) 1991 1993 1995 1992 1994 Year Source: Monthly Building Reports, Building Division 2 Article by Rob Carrick, Business Section, Toronto Star, Wednesday, January 10, 1996, Section B -1. 5 SON 3.2 Residential Building Permits Issued bV Geographic Location The total number of new residential units created during the period 1991 -1995 was 3422 (see Table 1). An average of 380 permits per year were issued to Bowmanville, while Courtice and Newcastle Village were issued 250 and 16 permits respectively. In the rural areas, an average of 10 permits were issued annually for Wilmot Creek Retirement Community. Approximately 5 permits per year were issued to the hamlets, whereas 20 permits per year were issued for the rural areas. The total number of residential building permits issued for the entire Municipality averaged 684 permits over the five year period. TABLE 1 Permits Issued By Geographic Location LOCATION 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 TOTAL Urban Areas Bowmanville 433 532 301 406 229 1901 Courtice 255 204 232 388 170 1249 Newcastle Village 46 22 6 4 0 78 Orono 1 3 3 2 1 10 Subtotal.. 735 761 542 800 400 3238 Rural Areas Wilmot Creek 2 10 10 10 16 48 Hamlets 8 6 5 5 3 27 Other 26 20 16 19 28 109 Subtotal.. 36 36 31 34 47 184 TOTAL 771 797 573 834 447 3422 Source: Monthly Building Reports, Building Division Overall, during the five year period between 1991 and 1995, approximately 92.4% of the permits were issued for units in Bowmanville and Courtice (see Figure 4). The majority (55.5 %) of these permits were for units in Bowmanville, while 36.5% of the permits were issued for units in Courtice. The rural areas were issued 5.4% permits which is slightly more than those issued for Newcastle Village (2.3 %). W M Rural Areas C5, Newcastle Village C2.3) FIGURE 4 Permits Issued by Geographic Location Orono (0.3) Source: Municipality of Clarington Planning & Development Department 3.3 Value of New Residential Construction The value of residential construction in the Municipality of Clarington fell to a low of $49.7 million in 1993 and then rose to $69.47 million in 1994. In 1995 the value of construction dropped by 43.7% from the year before to a low of $39.14 million in 1995 (see Figure 5). u 0 E v to $100.00 $9o,00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50,00 $40,00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00 FIGURE 5 Value of New Residential Construction C1991 - 1995) 1991 1993 1995 1992 1994 Year Source: Municipality of Clarington Planning & Development Department ,637 7 3.4 Various Dwelling Types Created in Clarington Table 2 shows that the majority of residential units being provided in Clarington between 1991 and 1995 were semi - detached /link and townhouses. The percentage of single detached units created over the five year span ranged from 35% to 37 %. In 1995, semis and townhouses comprised 59% of all units. Interestingly, in previous years the predominant dwelling type created in Clarington was single detached units. TABLE 2 Various Dwelling Types Created (1991 -1995) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Single Detached 286 280 200 287 167 Semi - Detached /Link 304 222 282 352 137 Townhouse 179 259 80 179 125 Multiple - 26 0 5 0 Mobile 2 10 11 11 16 DFD (apartments in houses) 0 0 0 0 2 [TOTAL 771 797 573 834 :44:7 Source: Monthly Building Reports, Building Division Overall the trend in housing has been to increased density of housing types. This trend is due to a number of factors including: • increased demand for affordable housing (especially by young families); • poor economy, forcing people to buy smaller homes; • declining household size; and, • increasing proportion of the elderly in the population. 3.5 Residential Demolition Activity Table 3 shows the number and type of dwelling units demolished in the Municipality of Clarington between 1991 and 1995. The number of demolitions has remained relatively constant over the 5 year period with 20 single detached units demolished in 1991 and 17 in 1995. The demolitions have occurred primarily in urban areas and is attributed to commercial and residential redevelopment of existing properties. 8 TABLE 3 Residential Demolition Activity 1987 -1991 (Number of Dwelling,Units) HOUSING TYPE 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Detached Dwelling 20 11 17 20 17 Semi - Detached Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 Row Housing 0 0 0 0 0 Apartment 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 20 11 17 20 17 Source: Monthly Building Reports, Building Division 3.6 Housing Starts for Selected Municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation defines housing starts as units where construction has advanced to a stage where full (100 %) footings are in place. In cases of multiple unit structures, this definition of a start applies to the entire surface. The Royal Bank has noted that high interest rates put a damper on housing start activity early in 1995. Later in the year interest rates fell and construction increased, but the total number of starts for the year was quite weak. Housing starts in 1996 are projected to continue on a roller coaster ride as they remain sensitive to changes in interest rates and consumer confidence. As presented in Table 4, the Greater Toronto Area experienced a 12.3% decrease in 1995 from the previous year in housing starts for both single and multiple units whereas Durham Region experienced a larger decrease of 37.2 %. Other regions such as York Region, Peel Region, and Halton Region also experienced decreases in the number of housing starts from the previous year. In terms of Durham Region, all of the municipalities within it experienced a decline in the number of housing starts from the previous year with Pickering experiencing the greatest decrease at 56.6% and Clarington with a decrease of 39.7 %. Oshawa, Whitby and Ajax had decreases in housing start activity of 13.8 %, 32.9% and 14.6% respectively. While most Regions experienced a decline in the number of starts produced between 1994 and 1995, Clarington in comparison to other municipalities in Durham Region, is still doing fairly well. 9 In actual numbers, Clarington had the second highest number of starts in Durham Region with 828 accounted for 1994, while Ajax had the lowest number of starts at 240. In 1995, Clarington again had the second highest number of starts in Durham Region with 499 starts compared to the lowest for Ajax at 205. TABLE 4 1994 and 1995 (January to December) Housing Starts for Single and Multiple Units in Selected Parts of the Greater Toronto Area Area Single Units Multiple Units Total �/0 % % 1994 1995 Change 1994 1995 Change 1994 1995 Change Greater Toronto 11,962 7,878 -34.1% 8,417 9,986 18.6% 20,379 17,864 -12.3% Area Metro- Toronto 916 742 - 19.0% 2,599 4,757 83.0% 3,515 5,499 56.4% York Region 3,801 2,664 - 29.9% 1,398 1,516 8.4% 5,199 4,180 - 19.6% Peel Region 3,617 2,222 - 38.6% 2,405 2,664 10.8% 6,022 4,886 - 18.9% Halton Region 1,195 734 -38.6% 988 391 -60.4% 2,183 1,125 - 48.5% Durham Region 2,433 1,516 -37.7% 1,027 658 -35.9% 3,460 2,174 - 37.2% Clarington 666 331 -50.3% 162 168 3.7% 828 499 - 39.7% Oshawa 245 275 12.2% 118 38 -67.8% 363 313 - 13.8% Whitby 574 429 -25.3% 198 89 -55.1% 772 518 -32.9% Ajax 177 103 -41.8% 63 102 61.9% 240 205 -14.6% Pickering 520 223 -57.1% 480 211 - 56.0% 1,000 434 -56.6% Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Local Housing Market Report Toronto Branch, December 1995 Singles - includes single family detached units and link dwellings joined below grade Multiples - includes all other dwellings 10 6 `"h1' lW 4. HOUSING SUPPLY IN CLARINGTON 4.1 Housing Supply by Status of Approval At year end 1995, there were a total of 6,525 residential units which had some form of approval. Of the total 6,525 units with some sort of approval, 928 (14.2 %) were registered or unbuilt lots, 5220 (80 %) units had municipal or draft approval, and 377 (6 %) were active site plan applications. FIGURE 6 Approved Development Applications By Approval Status Town or Draft Approved (5220) Active Site Plan Applications (37i -ed /Unbuilt [928) Source: Municipality of Clarington Planning & Development Department 4.2 Housing Supply by Housing Type Table 5 indicates that at the end of 1995, the Municipality of Clarington had a potential housing supply of 14,469 vacant lots. This amounts to a potential supply of lots for housing for the next 3.8 years to 9.5 years. ,b %4, 1 11 { / ( j E \ CL ! \ * \ ) 42 m J cli \ [ 7 o . ` §0 CM § / m R } \ e § n n TH B \ ° \ / \ / ] ° ® m } } w z a / . R & § ) � ® U) OOD co F (L @ k ) ® § \ e § / ! 2 o 0 0 \ m B §)§ ] co § o \ « § o § \ \ \ f \ , » [ } co v & 0 cm , S , * - ) a In co co 0 § -T \ (D ® } w ® co / e / ( ° N 2 / / ( / / } § 3 ( ( § 0 Cq vi & cq co co co cm ) ® § 0 N 0 ` o ® d 0 / 0 \ § ° 7 ) ƒ ® m 2 _ \ c / } a- r 2 ` \ / ƒ7 4a § c< 7 ! 2 § F y ) )» ) ƒ ° k �< k) 3 { / ( j E \ CL ! \ * \ ) 42 m 7 ` §0 o t — \ } \ e § n TH { / ( j E \ CL ! \ * \ ) 42 m The Provincial Land Use Planning for Housing policy statement recommends a 3 year minimum level of supply for draft approved and /or registered lots in plans of subdivision. This supply is deemed necessary to allow for future population growth and to ensure that sufficient quantities of housing are made available. The potential supply of housing in Clarington is comprised of single family (46.7 %), semi - detached (26.6 %) and townhouses (21.4 %) (see Table 6). TABLE 6 Potential Housing Supply Unit Type Number of Units % of Total Single Family 6,754 46.7 Semi - detached 3,883 26.8 Townhouse 3,097 21.4 Apartment 735 5.1 Total 14,469 100.0 Source: Municipality of Clarington Planning and Development Department As shown by Figures 7 to 11, the inventory of lots and the duration of supply for various housing types differs for each municipality in Durham Region. The bar charts show three different absorption scenarios - low, medium and high. Low absorption is based on the average actual demand during 1994 and 1995. The medium scenario inflates this low scenario by 50 %, whereas the high scenario is based on population growth forecasts adopted as the regional growth rates for planning in the Greater Toronto Area. As demonstrated in Figure 7, the supply of lots for singles ranges from 2 to 21 years in Ajax, yet ranges from 0.6 to 1.5 years in Uxbridge. Clarington has a good supply ranging from 2.9 to 15.7 years. 13 N L } FIGURE 7 Supply of Singles Durham Region 24 22 20 18 16 . 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 n MI O ■.■. ... Ajax Oshawa Whitby Brock ClarTngton Pickering Scugog Uxbridge Municipality Source: Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation, Ontario Ministry of Housing, 1995 GTA Residential Land Inventory Survey Figure 8 indicates that Clarington has a short duration of supply for semi - detached units ranging from only 0.2 to 0.4 years whereas Oshawa's range is between 0.7 and 37.8 years. FIGURE 8 Supply of Semis Durham Region 40 35 30 25 u L m 20 a } 15 1D 5 Low Medium High Ajax OshawaWhitby Brock ClarTngton Pickering Scugog Uxbridge Municipality Source: Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation, Ontario Ministry of Housing, 1995 GTA Residential Land Inventory Survey 644 14 Clarington meets the prescribed requirements of the Land Use Planning for Housing Policy Statement for townhouse units. Clarington's supply of lots for townhouse units ranges from 7.8 to 19.8 years. In comparison, the Town of Ajax has a supply ranging from 19.8 to 39.7 years (see Figure 9). FIGURE 9 Supply of Townhouses Durham Region 40 35 Low 30 Medium 25 High a m 20 r 15 10 5 0 Ajax Oshawa Whitby Brock Clarington PlckerIng Scugog Uxbridge Municipality Source; Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation, Ontario Ministry of Housing, 1995 GTA Residential Land Inventory Survey Since no building permits were issued for apartment units in 1993, it was not possible to estimate the duration of the supply for apartments in Clarington. The duration of supply for other municipalities in Durham Region is illustrated in Figure 10. 15 FIGURE 10 Supply of Apartments Durham Region 35 30 25 q 20 L a r 15 10 5 n 9� Ajax Oshawa Whitby Brock Clarington Picker Ing Scugog Uxbridge Municipality Source: Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation, Ontario Ministry of Housing, 1995 GTA Residential Land Inventory Survey 5. LOCAL HOUSING MARKET 5.1 Housing Prices Royal LePage surveys Canadian home prices quarterly for various housing types (see Appendix A for a Glossary) in cities across Canada. The average selling prices given in Tables 7 - 13 are based on new and resale houses in the City of Oshawa only. Royal LePage does not survey the Municipality of Clarington but, based on past observations, it can be stated that Courtice housing prices are similar to Oshawa's, while Bowmanville's and Newcastle Village's housing prices are approximately 5% below those of Oshawa. The average price of a detached bungalow, standard two - storey, standard townhouse and standard condominium apartment in Oshawa / Courtice is as follows: • detached bungalow - $144,000 • standard two - storey - $140,00 • standard townhouse - $97,000 • standard condominium apartment - $91,000 16 m Tables 7 to 13 show the average selling prices, estimated taxes, and rental costs for the following housing types: detached bungalow, executive detached two - storey, standard two - storey, standard townhouse, senior executive, standard condominium apartment, and luxury condominium apartment. Generally, prices have either remained the same or have dropped from a year ago. Luxury Condominium Apartment TABLE 9 Detached Price Fall 1995 Bungalow TABLE 7 Two - Storey Price Price Price % Change Estimated Est. Area Fall 1995 3 mos. ago 1 yr. ago 1 year Taxes Monthly Taxes Monthly $1,700. Ajax Rental Oshawa $144,000. $145,000. $146,000. -1.4% $2,345. $ 800. Whitby $144,000. $150,000. $150,000. 0.0% $2,600. $1,000. Ajax $150,000. $150,000. $165,000. -9.1% $2,100. $1,100. [Pickering $160,000. $160,000. $160,000. 0.0% $2,300. $1,050. Luxury Condominium Apartment TABLE 9 Executive Price Fall 1995 Detached TABLE 8 Two - Storey Estimated Taxes Est. Monthly Rental Price Price Price % Change Estimated Est. Area Fall 1995 3 mos. ago 1 yr. ago 1 year Taxes Monthly $1,700. Ajax -- Rental Oshawa $175,000. $175,000. $175,000. 0.0% $3,290. $975. Whitby $185,000. $185,000. $185,000. 0.0% $3,500. $1,200. Ajax $198,000. $198,000. $192,000. 3.1% $3,100. $1,200. Pickering $220,000. 1$220,000. $195,000. +12.8% $3,200. $1,100. Luxury Condominium Apartment TABLE 9 Area Price Fall 1995 Price 3 mos. ago Price 1 yr. ago % Change 1 year Estimated Taxes Est. Monthly Rental Oshawa $222,000. 222,000. $222,000. 0.0% $4,650. $1250. Whitby $230,000. $230,000. $220,000. +4.5 $3,900. $1,700. Ajax -- -- -- Pickering $150,000. $150,000. $156,000. -3.8% $2,300. $1,100. -- Information was not available NM 17 Standard Two - Storey TABLE 10 Area Price Fall 1995 Price 3 mos. ago Price 1 yr. ago % Change 1 year Estimated Taxes Est. Monthly Rental Oshawa $140,000. $141,000. $141,000. -0.7% $2,075. $ 850. Whitby $160,000. $160,000. $160,000. 0.0% $2,900. $1,100. Ajax $163,000. $163,000. $170,000. -4.1% $2,500. $1,100. Pickering $175,000. $175,000. $168,000. +8.0% $2,500. $1,000. Standard Townhouse TABLE 11 Area Price Fall 1995 Price 3 mos. ago Price 1 yr. ago % Change 1 year Estimated Taxes Est. Monthly Rental Oshawa $ 97,000. $ 97,000. $ 98,000. -1.0% $1,335. $775. Whitby $110,000. $110,000. $115,000. -4.3% $2,250. $900. Ajax $115,000. $115,000. $120,000. -4.2% $1,550. $950. Pickering $120,000. $120,000. $108,000. +11.1% $1,700. $800. Standard Condominium Apartment TABLE 12 Area Price Fall 1995 Price 3 mos. ago Price 1 yr. ago % Change 1 year Estimated Taxes Est. Monthly Rental Oshawa $ 91,000. $ 92,000. $ 93,000. -2.2% $1,335. $750. Whitby -- -- -- -- -- -- Ajax $ 95,000. $ 95,000. $ 90,000. +5.6% $1,300. $900. Pickering $100,000. $100,000. $102,000. -2.0% $1,700. $800. Senior Executive TABLE 13 Area Price Fall 1995 Price 3 mos. ago Price 1 yr. ago % Change 1 year Estimated Taxes Est. Monthly Rental Oshawa $222,000. $222,000. $222,000. 0.0% $4,650. $ 1,250. Whitby $230,000. $230,000. $220,000. 4.5% $3,900. $1,700. Ajax $250,000. $138,000. $250,000. 0.0% $3,800. $1,300. Pickering $230,000. $230,000. $240,000. -4.2% $3,600. $1,200. 18 :648 8 5.2 Resale Activity The condition of the resale market is important to examine because it is a key determinant for the course of the rental market as there is continued movement of households between rental and homeownership. Table 14 shows the resale activity in Clarington for 1994 and 1995. As shown by Table 14, the number of sales and listings declined by 5.4% and 8.9% respectively from 1994 to 1995. The average selling price also declined from $141,692 to $140,728. TABLE 14 Resale Activity Year Number of Listings Number of Sales Dollar Value Average Selling Price 1994 1878 899 $127,381,690. $141,692. 1995 1776 819 $115,256,302. $140,728. % +/- -5.4% -8.9% -9.5% -.6% Sources: Oshawa and District Real Estate Board 6. RENTAL MARKET 6.1 Housing Completions by Tenure A key determinant for the course of the rental market is the amount of new construction in the area. The completion of rental units affects the supply side, while completion of ownership units affects the demand side. As shown by Table 15, the Oshawa CMA and Durham Region as a whole saw only 4 private rental units completed in the rental market in the first 10 months of 1995. Clarington did not have any completions of either private rental or assisted rental units. TABLE 15 Housing Completions by Tenure (January- December 1994, January- October 1995) YEAR -TO -DATE/ PRIVATE ASSISTED YEAR FREEHOLD CONDO RENTAL RENTAL TOTAL Oshawa City Jan -Dec 1994 220 0 0 83 303 Jan -Oct 1995 258 0 4 102 364 Whitby Jan -Dec 1994 727 28 0 0 755 Jan -Oct 1995 445 36 0 0 481 Clarington Jan -Dec 1994 928 0 0 0 928 Jan -Oct 1995 369 0 0 0 369 Oshawa CMA Jan -Dec 1994 1,875 28 0 83 1,986 Jan -Oct 1995 1,072 36 4 102 1,214 Source: CMHC Rental Market Report, October 1995 ,'6 / 19 Overall, the rental market has had no significant development in years. With the surge of assisted housing completions in the early 90's, the vacancy rate has been at high levels. The rate has since decreased. However, 1996 is not expected to see any improvements in rental market construction. 6.2 Housing Starts by Tenure High interest rates put a damper on housing activity early in 1995. When interest rates fell later in the year, construction increased but total starts were relatively low. CMHC predicts that housing starts in 1996 will continue on a roller coaster ride as they remain sensitive to changes in interest rates and consumer confidence. Table 16 shows the housing starts by tenure. Clarington had 39 assisted rental units started between January and October 1995 and zero private rental units. During this same period, the Oshawa CMA had only 39 assisted rental units started, all of which were directly attributable to Clarington. Neither the City of Oshawa nor the Town of Whitby had any private rental or condominium starts during this period. TABLE 16 Housing Starts by Tenure (January- December 1994, January- October 1995) YEAR -TO -DATE/ I PRIVATE ASSISTED YEAR FREEHOLD CONDO RENTAL RENTAL TOTAL Oshawa City Jan -Dec 1994 176 0 4 102 282 Jan -Oct 1995 262 0 0 0 262 Whitby Jan -Dec 1994 640 36 0 0 676 Jan -Oct 1995 465 0 0 0 465 Clarington Jan -Dec 1994 762 0 0 0 762 Jan -Oct 1995 383 0 0 39 422 Oshawa Jan -Dec 1994 1,578 36 4 102 1,720 CMA Jan -Oct 1995 1,110 0 0 39 1,149 Source: CMHC Rental Market Report, October 1995 6.3 Vacancy Rates and Average Rents In the early 90's affordability was the driving force in the resale market as first time buyers - most of which were renters - bought in record numbers. Renters of upper end units, such as two and three bedroom units, shifted into homeownership as it became more affordable. 20 Nil Although affordability remains strong, the lack of consumer confidence appears to be weighing heavily on the willingness to buy. The number of 2 and 3 bedroom apartments occupied has increased indicating a slowdown of renters moving into homeownership. Table 17 indicates that the rental vacancy rate experienced wide fluctuations while the rent increased for all bedroom types. CMHC speculates that after years of low rent increases and even some rent decreases, the landlords are reacting to a tightening rental market by increasing the rent since they have more negotiating power. TABLE 17 Vacancy Rates and Average Rents by Bedroom Type Oshawa CMA, October 1994, 1995 LOCATION Bachelor Vacancy Rate Bachelor Rent 1- Bedroom Vacancy Rate 1- Bedroom Rent 1994 1995 1994 1995 1994 1995 1994 1995 Oshawa City 8.0% 8.7% $458, $470. 3.7% 3,0% $573. $588. Whitby 3.2% 6.1% $552. $556. 1.7% 2.0% $619. $653. Clarington 0.0% 0.0% $437. it 2,8% 6,5% $546. $588. Oshawa C.M.A. 5.9% 7.6% $468. $608. 3.1% 2,9% $584. $605. LOCATION 2- Bedroom Vacancy Rate 2- Bedroom Rent 3- Bedroom Vacancy Rate 3- Bedroom Rent 1994 1995 1994 1995 1994 1995 1994 1995 Oshawa City 2.9% 2.6% $654. $682. 1.8% 1.5% $725. $773. Whitby 2.5% 1.4% $684. $728. 22.8% 1.2% $788, $761. Clarington 1.8% 2.5% $627. $662. 0.0% 0.0% $737. $795. Oshawa C,M,A. 2.8% 2.4% $659. $689. 7.6% 1.4% $742, $770. * Data not available because sample size is too small. Source: CMHC - Rental Market Reports, October 1994, 1995 Between 1994 and 1995, rent for a 1 bedroom unit in Clarington increased 7.15% to $588; for a 2 bedroom unit it increased 5.29% to $662, and for a 3 bedroom unit it increased 7.3% to $795. Generally, the lowest rents in the Oshawa C.M.A are reported in Clarington and Oshawa. 21 Wo 6.4 Rental Market Outlook CMHC predicts that the Oshawa CMA rental market will experience a decline in the vacancy rate for October of 1996. However, the drop will be moderate, with the vacancy rate falling to 2.2 %. The declining vacancy rate is supported by the following factors. Employment in service sector will fall The manufacturing base in the Oshawa CMA will keep employment at current levels. However, consumer confidence will remain weak with continued fiscal restraints. As a result, home buying will be low, therefore decreasing the vacancy rate. The magnitude of the drop in the vacancy rate will be limited as household formation among younger renters continues to decline. Limited change in the rental stock Construction of private rental units will be limited and it is expected that no new assisted construction will take place in 1996. As the vacancy rate decreases, rents will respond and increase further in 1996. Interest rates continue their descent Affordability will improve in 1996 as interest rates continue to decline. However, as was seen in the second half of 1995, other factors are influencing people's decisions to buy, such as consumer confidence and employment expectations. 6.5 Affordability While employment is the key factory that influences the level of housing demand, the choice between owning and renting is largely based on affordability.' Affordability has improved since 1990, but a sharp increase in interest rates in 1994 offset the favourable impact of weaker house prices and led to a significant deterioration in affordability. The reduced affordability levels resulted in falling sales of existing homes and a collapse in new starts in 1995 even as interest rates resumed their downward trend. Home ownership costs in 1995 were close to their lowest level since 1985. However, while housing prices have remained fairly stable across the country in the past five years, the levels of affordability have fluctuated up and down because of volatile financial markets. ' The former Ministry of Housing defines affordable housing as housing which would have a market price or rent that would be affordable to a household of low or moderate income. Households of low or moderate income are within the lowest 60 percent of the income distribution (60th income percentile). 22 652 6.6 Affordable House Price and Rent The former Ministry of Housing identified affordability benchmarks for ownership and rental housing for the Oshawa CMA in a 1995 information bulletin. The affordable price and rent for the Oshawa CMA for 1995 is as follows: House Price Affordable to the 60th Percentile $163,500 60th Percentile Household Income $65,000 Affordable Rent at the 60th Percentile $1,100 60th Percentile Tenant Household Income $43,990 The 1995 house price and rental benchmarks based on a 60th percentile household income were calculated using the following assumptions: a) a 30% gross debt /service ratio; b) a 10% down payment; C) a monthly tax rate equal to 0.125% of house value; d) a mortgage interest rate of 10.88% amortized over 25 years; and, e) rent based on 30% of gross monthly household income. The decline in house prices since late 1990 has resulted in the average house price being within the affordable house price of $163,500 set by the former Ministry of Housing in 1995. All house types appear to be affordable except for the executive single detached homes. Average apartment rental rates in Clarington in October 1995 were: • 1 Bedroom $588 • 2 Bedroom $662 • 3 Bedroom $795 These rental rates are well below the Provincial affordable rental benchmark for the Oshawa CMA of $1,100 set in 1995. The 1995 average income for renter households in the Oshawa CMA was $54,585 ($57,185 for family renter households and $47,947 for non - family renter households). As of December 1995, the average maximum house price affordable to the average family renter household in the Oshawa CMA was $175,273; for the average non - family renter household this figure was $146,959. Overall, the maximum affordable house price for all renter households was 23 Now- $167,301. The maximum affordable house price is based on a 10% down payment and a 8.2% mortgage interest rate. The average price of a starter home (new and resale) in the Oshawa CMA for January to June 1995 was $140,151 and from July to December 1995, it was $142,215. Only renter households between the ages of 20 and 44 were considered as potential first -time buyers. In the Oshawa CMA, 32.7% of all renter households could afford to buy a starter home during the period January to June 1995. This translates into 43.4% of all family renter households and 24% of non - family renter households. By July to December 1995, 37.7% of all renter households could afford to buy a starter home (source: CMHC Canadian Housing Markets, First Quarter 1996). Generally, the Oshawa CMA and Clarington in particular has a good variety of housing types and tenure at an acceptable affordability range. 7. CONCLUSION The 1995 Housing Monitoring Report was prepared to satisfy the requirements of the Clarington Official Plan to monitor residential activity in the Municipality. Generally, the Municipality of Clarington is meeting the targets for housing types, level of affordability and land supply. Unfortunately, compared to a few years ago, the housing market in Durham Region is doing poorly because of a soft economy, volatile financial markets, falling levels of disposable income and poor consumer confidence due to high unemployment and continuous government cuts. On the positive side however, the level of housing affordability is the best that it has been in many years mainly due to lower interest rates and reduced house prices. The level of affordability is expected to continue showing improvement and may result in the housing market showing signs of recovery, While rental units were affordable in 1995 and will remain so for most of 1996, they may well not be affordable in 1997. The present provincial government is proposing to remove rent controls and is instituting a program which they state will "protect tenants ". The government plans to cap rent increases for tenants in their existing units but to allow landlords to increase rents to the market rate when a new tenant moves in. The cap would then be reinstated for the new tenant. Another proposal is to abolish rent controls for new rental buildings. Under the present rules, new 24 0 buildings become rent controlled after five years. Many tenant and consumer groups are worried that the proposed rent control changes will force many tenants to pay exorbitant rents or that some tenants may even be coerced into moving out in order for the landlord to increase the rents. Removing rent controls may produce some increased demand for housing units, but it may also force more people onto the streets, particularly in Toronto where rents are already at high levels. As noted in this report, employment levels are a critical factor in determining the future housing supply. While employment levels have been low, CMHC states that employment is likely to increase in 1996 in response to lower interest rates and a higher demand for Canadian products abroad. Employment gains will be concentrated in the manufacturing sector and may lead to increased sales in the automotive parts industry. Modernization at the GM Truck Plant in Oshawa will benefit the trades industry in the area. Although increased productivity is expected at the Oshawa GM Plant, this will be met with improved productivity and not necessarily employment increases. Unfortunately, the magnitude of employment growth will be dampened as government and the private sector continue to streamline and push forward spending cuts. In addition, young people who play a critical role in creating new households and consequently housing demand, will continue to find limited employment opportunities. Employment levels directly impact on the level of consumer confidence which in turn is the main driving force in the market. Low interest rates will continue to entice consumers in 1996; however, given the soft economy, low wage growth and debt - ridden consumers, spending on large ticket items such as cars, houses, household furnishings and appliances will remain weak. 25 2 656 APPENDIX A Glossary of Housing Types Detached Bungalow A detached, three - bedroom single storey home with 1 112 bathrooms and a one -car garage. It has a full basement but no recreation room, fireplace or appliances. Using out- side dimensions (excluding garage), the total area of the house is 111 sq. metres (1,200 sq. ft.) and it is situated on a fully- serviced, 511 sq. metre (5,500 sq. ft.) lot. Depending on the area, the construction style may be brick, wood, siding or stucco. Executive Detached Two - storey A detached two- storey, four - bedroom home with 2 1/2 bathrooms, a main floor family room, one fireplace, and an attached two -car garage. There is a full basement but no recre- ation room or appliances. Using the exterior dimensions (excluding garage), the total area of the house is 186 sq. metres (2,000 sq. ft.), and it is situated on a fully- serviced, 604 sq. metre (6,500 sq. ft.) lot. Depending on the area, the construction style may be brick, wood, aluminum siding, stucco or a combination like brick and siding. Standard Two - storey A three - bedroom, two- storey home with a detached garage. It has a full basement but no recreation room. Using outside dimensions, the total area of the house is 139 sq. metres (1,500 sq. ft.) and it is situated on a fully - serviced, city -sized lot of approximately 325 sq. metres (3,500 sq. ft.). The house may be detached or semi - detached and construction style may be brick, wood, siding or stucco. Standard Townhouse Either condominium or freehold, the townhouse (rowhouse) has three bedrooms, a living room and dining room (possibly combined) and a kitchen. Also included are 1 1/2 bath- rooms, standard broadloom, a one -car garage, a full unfinished basement and two appli- ances. Total inside area is 92 sq. metres (1,000 sq. ft.). Depending on the area, the construction may be brick, wood, siding or stucco. Senior Executive A two- storey, four- or five - bedroom home with three bathrooms, main floor family room plus atrium or library. Two fireplaces, a full unfinished basement and an attached two -car garage. The house is 279+ sq. metres (3,000+ sq. ft.) and is situated on a fully - serviced 627 sq. metre (6,750 sq. ft.) lot. Construction may be brick, stucco, siding or in combination. Standard Condominium Apartment A two- bedroom apartment with a living room, a dining room (possibly combined) and a kitchen, in a high -rise building with an inside floor area of 84 sq. metres (900 sq. ft.). Amenities include standard broadloom, 1 1/2 bathrooms, 2 appliances, a small balcony and 1 underground parking space. Common area includes a pool and some minor recreational facilities. Luxury Condominium Apartment A two - bedroom apartment with a living room, a dining room (possibly combined) and a kitchen, with family room or den, in a high -rise building with an inside floor area of 130 sq. metres (1,400 sq. ft.). Amenities include upgraded broadloom, 2 full bathrooms, ensuite laundry and storage areas, 5 appliances, a large balcony and 1 underground parking space. Common area includes a pool, sauna and other major recreational facilities.