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HomeMy WebLinkAboutLGS-021-23Clarftwn Staff Report If this information is required in an alternate accessible format, please contact the Accessibility Coordinator at 905-623-3379 ext. 2131. Report To: General Government Committee Date of Meeting: May 29, 2023 Report Number: LGS-021-23 Submitted By: Rob Maciver, Deputy CAO/Solicitor Reviewed By: Mary -Anne Dempster, CAO Resolution#: GG-186-23 File Number: By-law Number: Report Subject: Ward Boundary Review — Direction Requested from Council Recommendations: 1. That Report LGS-021-23, and any related delegations or communication items, be received; 2. That, either: Option A = Council authorize Staff to initiate a Ward Boundary Review such that any recommended ward boundary changes may be considered by Council to be in effect for the 2026 Municipal Elections, funded from the Election Reserve Account, and that a sole -source contract for the Ward Boundary Review be awarded to Watson and Associates Economists Ltd., with an upset limit of $70,000 (plus taxes); Option B = the Municipality of Clarington maintain the existing four -ward boundary system; 3. That all interested parties listed in Report LGS-021-23, and any delegations, be advised of Council's decision. Municipality of Clarington Report LGS-021-23 Report Overview Page 2 The Municipality of Clarington is currently divided into four wards which were established in 1996. A ward boundary review is conducted to ensure fair representation across the municipality. Council is requested to provide direction to Staff on whether to initiate a ward boundary review to be undertaken such that any recommended changes may be considered by Council in time to take effect for the 2026 municipal elections. 1. Legislative Authority Municipal Act 1.1 Subsection 217(1) of The Municipal Act, 2001 (the Act)_authorizes a municipality to change the composition of its council, subject to the following rules: 1. There shall be a minimum of five members, one of whom shall be the head of council. 2. The members of council shall be elected in accordance with the Municipal Elections Act, 1996. 3. The head of council shall be elected by general vote. 4. The members, other than the head of council, shall be elected by general vote or wards or by any combination of general vote and wards. 5. The representation of a local municipality on the council of an upper -tier municipality shall not be affected by the by-law of the local municipality under this section. 1.2 Subsection 222(1) grants Council the authority "to divide or redivide the municipality into wards or to dissolve the existing wards" by by-law. 1.3 The number, and distribution, of Councillors representing local municipalities on the Regional Council is determined through a process established in the Municipal Act, 2001, s. 218. A by-law, passed in 2016 by Durham Regional Council, confirmed that the number of Clarington Regional Councillors would remain at two for the 2018 and 2022 municipal elections and they cannot be modified unilaterally by Clarington Council. Municipality of Clarington Report LGS-021-23 Region of Durham Council Composition Page 3 1.4 A change made to subsection 218(6) of the Municipal Act, in 2017, states that "following the regular election in 2018 and following every second regular election after that, a regional municipality shall review, for each of its lower -tier municipalities, the number of members of its council that represent the lower -tier municipality." 1.5 In 2019, the Provincial government undertook a Regional Governance Review project which could have resulted in an effect on Clarington, and ultimately the ward boundary review. As a result, the Ward Boundary Review was delayed until after the release of the Regional Governance Review, which took place on October 25, 2019. The Review did not affect Clarington, so the Clarington Ward Boundary Review proceeded. 1.6 In accordance with the Act, we would expect a Regional Review within two years after the 2026 Municipal Elections. 2. History of Clarington's Ward Boundaries 2.1 In 1974, when the Town of Newcastle was created, it consisted of three wards, the Former Township of Darlington (Ward 1), the Former Town of Bowmanville (Ward 2) and the Former Township of Clarke (Ward 3). At that time, Regional Council consisted of 30 members plus the Chair; the Town had four regional representatives. The mayor sat on Regional Council and each of the wards was represented by a Regional Councillor and a Local Councillor. 2.2 In 1986, effective for the 1988 elections, one member was added to each of Ajax and Whitby, resulting in a 32-member Regional Council, plus the Chair. 2.3 In 1996, effective for the 1997 elections, Regional Council was reduced to a 28-member Council and representation of the former Town of Newcastle (now Clarington) was reduced by one member, to two Regional Councillors plus the Mayor. To accommodate this reduction, a review of our ward system was undertaken, and the Municipality was divided into the current four wards, with two Regional Councillors, each representing two wards. Clarington's existing ward boundaries were established by Council on August 12, 1996, through By-law 96-151. Municipality of Clarington Report LGS-021-23 Page 4 2.4 In 1996, in reviewing the ward boundaries, population, as well as communities of interest and geographic features, were taken into consideration. With the wards being divided as they were at that time, it was believed that each one contained a good mix of rural and urban areas. There has never been an equality of population within the wards, and it was known at the time, with the growth that was forecasted for the Municipality, that the populations would become more unbalanced over time. As well, it was recognized at the time that Ward 4 would always have a smaller population base than the other three wards. However, this concern was offset by the fact that the land mass covered was much larger than the other wards. 2.5 In 2014, through Report CLD-001-14, Staff reported to Council concerning Regional Council Representation. That report included the 2014 electoral count and landmass statistics by ward and recommended that "given the differences in electors in each ward, and the anticipated future growth in the Municipality, it is advisable to review the ward boundaries prior to the 2018 municipal election." 2.6 In 2016, through Report CLD-036-16, Staff recommended a Ward Boundary review for the 2018 Municipal Elections. Council approved the following Resolution #GG-574-16 (for the 2022 Municipal Elections): "That Report CLD-036-16 be received; That Council authorize a ward boundary review; That the ward boundary review be undertaken by Staff in 2019 such that any recommended ward boundary changes may be considered by Council such that they can be in effect for the 2022 Municipal Elections; That all interested parties be advised of Council's decision." 2.7 As a result, Clarington engaged a consultant, for a cost of $64,932 (plus taxes), to perform a Ward Boundary Review. September 14, 2020, Report CLD-014-20, the Interim Report, was received for information. In January 2021, arising out of the Final Report, Report LGS-002-21, Council received the report for information and directed "that the Municipality of Clarington maintain the existing four ward boundary system". Municipality of Clarington Page 5 Report LGS-021-23 3. Discussion Principles of Ward Divisions 3.1 The review of municipal electoral arrangements is not subject to a standardized process in Ontario. The timing and purpose of a review, as well as the process to be followed, are entirely at the discretion of each municipality, within a notice and appeal framework. 3.2 The City of Ottawa provides an informative "Ward Boundary Review of Case Law and the PrinciDle of Effective Representation". 3.3 When reviewing ward boundaries, generally accepted principles are regularly considered, in consideration of past OMB/OLT decisions as well as a Supreme Court of Canada decision', as follows: Representation by Population: Considering representation by population or every councillor generally representing an equal number of constituents within his or her respective ward. Note: Giving consideration to all of the principles, it is reasonable to establish what would be considered an optimum number per councillor while acknowledging an acceptable variation range. • Population and Electoral Trends: Accommodating for, and balancing, future increases or decreases in population growth/decline to maintain a general equilibrium in the representation by population standard. • Means of Communication and Accessibility: Arranging ward boundaries by primary and secondary road patterns, railway and public transit accesses, postal codes, and servicing capabilities to help foster an identity and neighbourhood groupings. • Geographic and Topographical Features: Utilizing geographical and topographical features to provide for ward boundaries and compact and contiguous areas (as included in the previous principle). • Community or Diversity of Interests: Recognizing settlement patterns, traditional neighbourhoods, and community groupings (social, historical, economic, religious, and political diversities) while at the same time, not fragmenting such communities. ,,The Carter Decision", Supreme Court of Canada, Prov. Electoral Boundaries (Sask.), [19911 2 S.C.R. 158. Available at https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/766/index.do Municipality of Clarington Page 6 Report LGS-021-23 Effective Representation: Considering an overriding principle of effective representation. Population and Land Mass 3.4 Since 2011, Clarington's total population has grown by 28% (2011 to 2023), but the growth has not been uniform across the municipality and has resulted in population disparity among the four wards. 3.5 Attachment 1 is a table that provides a comparison population between the wards. 3.6 For future projections, we have total population forecasts of 120,660 for 2026 and 141,200 for 2031, compared to the 2023 population of 108,220. Comparison and Variance of Optimal 3.7 This begs the question, then, "how much of a deviation from the optimum voter parity is acceptable?" According to Dr. Robert J. Williams, Ph.D., former Professor Emeritus Department of Political Science University of Waterloo, and Public Affairs Consultant specializing in municipal electoral systems, in a verbal presentation provided to the Region of Durham during their Council composition review, "There is no empirical evidence that speaks to a formula or consensus on the optimal size of Council, and that Durham must consider what is in the best interests of the Region. It was noted that successful and sustainable electoral systems are those which are simple and clear, as too much complexity works against voters' understanding and trust in the system." 3 2 Total population includes Census Net Undercoverage; Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. Since Clarington is in the process of updating our forecasts with the latest data, and in consideration of the completion of the Region's new Official Plan, the projected numbers are subject to change. 3 Region of Durham Report #2016-RCCRC-01. Municipality of Clarington Report LGS-021-23 Page 7 3.8 "The existing ward boundaries confront two main challenges: providing for population parity between wards and accounting for communities of interest. The objective of population parity (every councillor generally representing an equal number of constituents within his or her respective ward) is the primary goal of an electoral redistribution with some degree of variation acceptable in light of population densities and demographic factors across the Municipality. The indicator of success in a ward design is the extent to which all the individual wards approach an "optimal" size. The adoption of a 25% maximum variation is based on federal redistribution legislation and is widely applied in municipalities like Clarington that include both urban and rural areas." 4 3.9 The table in Attachment 2 provides a comparison of the wards' variation from the optimal ward population using the 25% variance. 3.10 As depicted in Attachment 2, Clarington's current ward variances exceed the 25% variance in three out of four wards. 4. Timing 4.1 The last Clarington Ward Boundary Review took approximately 24 months (from the start of the RFP process, data collection, analysis, public consultations, Council consideration, to end of appeal period). Pickering estimated 10-12 months in 2019, and the City of Ottawa recently estimated 18 months. 4.2 The Municipal Act requires that, within 15 days of passing the by-law, the municipality shall give notice of passing a by-law to modify the ward boundaries. The notice shall advise that the by-law may be appealed to the Ontario Land Tribunal (OLT) within 45 days of the date of the notice. Following which, the OLT must agree to convene a hearing, reach a decision, and issue an order by December 31, 2025, in order that the electoral system can be in place for January 1, 2026, to be used in the October 2026 municipal elections. 4.3 Therefore, any Ward Boundary Review should be initiated in 2024. 4 Municipality of Clarington Report #LGS-002-21, page 22-23. Municipality of Clarington Report LGS-021-23 5. Financial Considerations Page 8 5.1 The electoral system is of considerable importance to Members of Council, potential candidates, and residents, and therefore requires a thorough objective, technical analysis of Clarington's population projections as well as consideration of Clarington's communities, taking into consideration the principles detailed earlier in this Report. The scope of this project demands skills and expertise beyond that of Staff. It is therefore recommended that Clarington engage a consultant for the Review. 5.2 Watson and Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson) were the consultants in the 2020 Ward Boundary Review, and they were very professional and thorough in their approach and results. There is an advantage to having the same company perform the next Ward Boundary Review in that they are very familiar with the nuances of the demographics and geography of Clarington, which provides savings in research and consultation time. Additionally, there is a limited number of companies in a position to provide this type of service (three other bids were obtained in the 2020 RFP). 5.3 Staff have obtained a budgetary quote of $60,000-$70,000 (plus taxes) from Watson, which would include data analysis, conducting public consultation, generating maps, and preparation of an interim and final report with recommended ward boundaries. This quote is in line with the cost for the 2020 Review and, after consulting with the Purchasing Division, Staff are recommending a sole -source approach. 5.4 Funding for this review would come from the Election Reserve Account. The current (as of December 31, 2023, following the annual contribution) amount in the Election Reserve Account is $268,418.92. 6. Concurrence This report has been reviewed by the Deputy CAO/Treasurer who concurs with the recommendations. Municipality of Clarington Report LGS-021-23 7. Conclusion Page 9 It is respectfully recommended that Council provide direction on whether they wish to proceed with a Ward Boundary Review for the Municipality of Clarington; that such review be undertaken by an external consultant through a sole -source approach, and that the timeline for the review be such that any ward boundary changes be effective for the 2026 Municipal Elections. Staff Contact: June Gallagher, Municipal Clerk, 905-623-3379 ext. 2102 or clerks@clarington.net. Attachments: Attachment 1 — Population Table Attachment 2 — Optional Population Deviation Table Interested Parties: There are no interested parties to be notified of Council's decision. Municipality of Clarington Report LGS-021-23 Page 10 Attachment 1 Population Table Ward Land Land 2011 2016 2016 2018 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 Mass Mass Pop. Pop. Pop. �km2) 1 129.19 21.1 28,184 30,763 33.4 31,037 32,030 31.1 32,154 32,250 32,295 29.8 2 88.37 14.4 24,014 27,651 30.0 29,563 33,700 32.8 36,246 38,005 38,502 35.6 3 90.27 14.7 17,403 17,675 19.2 18,193 19,890 19.3 18,141 18,485 18,567 17.2 4 304.39 49.7 14,945 16,071 17.4 16,399 17,280 16.8 18,732 18,784 18,856 17.4 Total 612.22 100 84,546 92,160 100 95,192 102,900 100 105,273 107,524 108,220 100 Notes: 2011 - based on Census data (excludes net census undercount) 2016 - Estimate from 2016, based on new building permits on record, issued beginning 2012 to end of 2016 2018 - Estimate from 2016, based on list of proposed and draft approved subdivisions compiled by Planning Services Department Staff. 2020 - based on estimates from within the 2020 Ward Boundary Review Report. 2021-2023 -based on information from Planning Services Department Staff in 2023, undercount already applied to census. Municipality of Clarington 11 Report LGS-021-23 Page Attachment 2 Optimal Population Deviation Ward 2011 2011 Deviation 2016 2016 Deviation 2018 2018 Deviation 2020 2020 Deviation 2021 2021 Deviation 2022 2022 Deviation 2023 2023 Deviation Optimal* 21,136 23,040 23,798 25,725 26,318 26,881 27,055 1 +7,048 +34% +7,723 +34% +7,239 +31 % +6,305 +25% 5,836 +22% 5,369 +20% 5,240 +19% 2 +2,878 +14% +4,611 +20% +5,765 +25% +7,975 +31 % 9,928 +38% 11,124 +41 % 11,447 +42% 3 -3,733 -18% -5,365 -24% -5,605 -24% -5,835 -23% -8,177 -31% -8,396 -31% -8,488 -31% 4 -6,191 -30% -6,969 -31% -7,399 -31% -8,445 -33% -7,586 -29% -8,097 -30% -8,199 -30% *Note: The optimal population, for the purposes of this table, is calculated as 25% of that year's total population. Population figures are taken from Attachment 1.