HomeMy WebLinkAboutPSD-025-12 Clarington
REPORT
PLANNING SERVICES DEPARTMENT
Meeting: GENERAL PURPOSE AND ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE
Date: May 7, 2012 Resolution #: , -, 1 y-law #: N/A
Report #: PSD-025-12 File #: PLN 38.7
Subject: OFFICIAL PLAN REVIEW
Release of Growth Management Discussion Paper
RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee
recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PSD-025-12 be received for information.
Submitted by: Reviewed bK—D
a ' J. Crome, MCIP, RP-P Franklin Wu
Director, Planning Services Chief Administrative Officer
LB/COS/df
26 April 2012
CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
40 EMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L1C 3A6 T 905-623-3379
REPORT NO.: PSD-025-12 PAGE 2
1. PURPOSE
1.1 The purpose of this report is to announce the release of the Growth Management
Discussion Paper, prepared by Dillon Consulting and Staff of the Planning Services
Department. It is also to provide an overview of the associated public consultation
schedule for growth management.
1.2 Through Council C-117-12 staff must endeavour to complete the Growth Management
Phase of the OP Review expeditiously, incorporating infrastructure and financing
implications for future growth and any implications resulting from the Regional Growth
conformity exercise (ROPA 128) currently before the Ontario Municipal Board.
2. GROWTH MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION PAPER
2.1 The Discussion Paper explores how and where Clarington should continue to grow. It
examines historical growth patterns, current development plans, infill and intensification
opportunities and infrastructure opportunities and constraints. The paper also examines
the implications of the Growth Plan and ROPA 128. This information has led to the
creation of three development scenarios. The development scenarios define how and
where Clarington's urban development should occur.
• Scenario 1: Current Trend. This Scenario reflects the continuation of historic
patterns of growth with respect to location, density and mix of uses.
• Scenario 2: Growing Durham. This Scenario is the Consultants interpretation of
Growing Durham for Clarington.
• Scenario 3: Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character. This
Scenario builds on the Growing Durham Scenario by taking into consideration
the local character of each of the urban settlement areas.
2.2 The Discussion Paper also evaluates these Scenarios based on a number of principles
including creating complete, healthy, and sustainable communities; protection of the
natural heritage system and agricultural lands; transit support and infrastructure
efficiency; and maintenance of community identity and character.
2.3 The Growth Management Discussion Paper concludes with preliminary policy directions
to bring the Clarington Official Plan into conformity with the Growth Plan and the Region
of Durham Official Plan. These include directing residential growth to intensification
areas (Town Centres and Regional Corridors) and providing opportunities for mixed use,
transit oriented development. The creation of a phasing strategy for greenfield
development is also explored. Please see the Executive Summary (Attachment 1).
3. PUBLIC CONSULTATION
3.1 The policy implications from both the Intensification and Growth Management
Discussion Papers will be the topic of Public Open Houses in June.
REPORT NO.: PSD-025-12 PAGE 3
• June 6, 2012 at G.B. Rickard Recreation Complex.
• June 7, 2012 at Courtice Community Complex.
• June 13, 2012 at Newcastle Recreation Complex.
3.2 Notice of the availability of the Growth Management Discussion Paper, and the Open
Houses will be sent to all Official plan review interested parties. The public is
encouraged to provide comments.
3.3 The Discussion Paper and all associated information will also be made available on the
Official Plan Review website http://www.clarington.net/ourplan/ and as always, the
Growth Management Discussion Paper, will be available to the public in all branches of
the Clarington Library.
4. CONCURRENCE - Not Applicable
5. CONCLUSION
5.1 The Growth Management Discussion Paper identifies a strategy for implementing the
Provincial Growth Plan and Amendment 128 to the Durham Region Official Plan. Public
input will be sought over the next few months and subsequently a draft amendment will
be prepared.
CONFORMITY WITH STRATEGIC PLAN
The recommendations contained in this report conform to the general intent of the following
priorities of the Strategic Plan:
X Promoting economic development
Maintaining financial stability
Connecting Clarington
X Promoting green initiatives
X Investing in infrastructure
Showcasing our community
Not in conformity with Strategic Plan
Staff Contact: Carlos Salazar
Attachments:
Attachment 1 — Executive Summary Growth Management Discussion Paper
Attachment 1
To Report PSD-025-12
EXECUTIVE S Y
GROWTH MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION PAPER
Introduction
Planning for growth can be a challenging exercise. Typically, municipalities planning for long
term growth are required to consider a number of questions: Where should we grow? How
should we grow? What infrastructure investments are required to accommodate growth?
How will we pay for growth? What are the human health and environmental impacts
associated with growth? A Growth Management Study (GMS) is an integrated planning process
that provides an opportunity to address some of these key questions. A Growth Management
Study examines the implications of alternative land use decisions to better understand how
and where municipalities should grow over time. The outcome of this exercise is a series of
policy recommendations, which collectively can be referred to as a Growth Strategy.
Clarington is expected to experience strong population growth; between 2006 and 2031
Clarington will need to accommodate an additional 59,440 persons, 25,220 housing units and
17,520 jobs. This expected growth is a great opportunity to build a more sustainable and
healthy community, integrating not only the Provincial mandates, but also the residents' and
business vision for growth.
The Municipality's GMS examines how, when and where growth should occur by testing and
distributing the Region of Durham's population and employment forecasts to the local urban
communities. The outcome of the GMS will have significant fiscal implications for the
Municipality and influence the provision of services and local infrastructure. The GMS will be
the basis for updating Clarington's Official Plan to conform to the Provincial Places to Grow
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Places to Grow) and the Amendment No. 128
to the Region of Durham Official Plan (ROPA 128).
Legislative Context
This GMS fits within the legislative context of the Province's Places to Grow Growth Plan for
the Greater Golden Horseshoe and within ROPA 128, which was developed to conform to the
provincial plan. Places to Grow vision is one of compact settlement and development patterns
that are capable of providing diverse opportunities to work, live and participate in community
life; provincial policy directs the municipalities to address intensification, in-fill and brownfield
development as a starting point for the long-term land supply analysis.
Growth Management Discussion Paper—March 2012 0
Growth is also constrained by the Greenbelt Plan and the Oak Ridges Moraine that clearly
identify areas which are not suitable for urban growth and form an important foundation for
the Municipality's structure. In addition to these provincial designated areas, Clarington's
Official Plan designates an Open Space System and development within the Open Space
System is generally discouraged. Agricultural areas also represent an important component of
the municipal structure and are a key component of the Municipality's economy.
The Province has set an aggressive agenda for growth in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)
to focus growth on settlements areas and create compact, complete communities that make
efficient use of infrastructure and protects natural systems and agriculture. The Clarington
GMS must reflect Provincial direction.
ROPA 128
The Region has taken the first steps in implementing the Province's agenda by completing a
Regional Official Plan Amendment (ROPA 128) that defines how much growth is allocated to
Clarington, the shape of growth in terms of numbers and types of housing and number of jobs
as well as specific targets for intensification of use in delineated centres, corridors and
waterfront places. ROPA 128 allocates a total population target of 140,340 people, 52,120
households and 38,420 jobs to Clarington by 2031. The Clarington GMS must reflect the
Region's policy directions.
On June 3, 2009 the Regional Council adopted ROPA 128. The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and
Housing issued a Province's Decision on ROPA 128 on October 27, 2010. The Ministry
subsequently received 29 appeals to the decision, including an appeal from the Region, many
of them appealing the amendment in its entirety. Consequently, the Ontario Municipal Board
(OMB) is now the approval authority for ROPA 128.
Background
Moving forward to a new pattern of growth means understanding past and future trends and
having a vision for the future that builds on the past— reinforcing the desirable characteristics
and encouraging change to meet new objectives. The following are the key conclusions about
the shape of growth and drivers for growth in Clarington:
® Over the short term, all of the treatment facilities servicing the urban communities in
Clarington have some capacity to support additional growth. However, servicing
improvements are needed to meet projected long term goal as there appears to be
insufficient resource capacity to support intensification along the major corridors,
Growth Management Discussion Paper—March 2012 0
regional centres and to support Greenfield development in both resident7and
employment areas.
• Sustainable transportation improvements are needed. Currently, the transportation
system in Clarington is primarily oriented towards vehicular traffic travelling on public
roadways with a heavy focus on the use of private automobiles to support personal
mobility and the use of trucks to support goods movement. Transit is limited in
Clarington though two new GO stations are proposed in Courtice and Bowmanville.
Without significant improvements, the opportunity for sustainable transportation is
limited in the short term to allow residents to take transit, bike or walk to work and to
other daily activities.
• There are a number of planned infrastructure improvements which have the potential
to drive future growth opportunities in Clarington, including 407 extension, 401-407
link, GO service and treatment plant expansions.
• Over 80% of Clarington is made up of significant natural heritage systems and
agriculture that is not suitable for development. The natural heritage system makes up
the spine and underlying structure for any future growth.
• Clarington has experienced rapid growth in the last decade (particularly in
Bowmanville) and this is expected to continue. The population has slightly aged
particularly in Newcastle and the rural areas while household size is shrinking and will
continue to shrink. These trends in aging of the population will continue. Clarington
needs to continue to accommodate rapid growth and a slightly aging population
primarily in urban areas. On the other hand, the rural areas/hamlets have experienced
limited growth and this is expected to continue into the future.
• Low density residential sub-divisions on the outskirts of the three urban centres have
been the predominant housing type and will continue unless an active strategy for
change is implemented. Under this new strategy—most of the new housing growth will
occur in the urban communities of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle. Currently the
new neighbourhoods are predominantly car-oriented, mainly single use residential
dwellings with few amenities or nearby employment uses. Single family housing is
relatively affordable in Clarington which enhances the popularity of this housing type.
• There is more than an 8 year committed supply of largely low density residential land
representing about 38% of the currently approved growth area. Clarington has more
Growth Management Discussion Paper—March 2012 0
than 7,400 residential units in the committed development inventory; more th7built-up
of the units are located on greenfield lands and 32% are located within the
boundary (and thus are considered intensification). Despite any desire for change,
development patterns are largely pre-determined for the next decade because of the
large inventory of approved low density sub-divisions.
® A significant number of residents go outside the municipality to work. The existing
business parks are underutilized and in most cases (except Courtice) separated from
the residential areas making it difficult to encourage transit/bike/pedestrian travel to
work. There are some key economic opportunities to build on in Clarington including
the Clarington Energy Park, the proposed Technology Park and Darlington Nuclear
Station Upgrade and Refurbishment.
® The preferred approach is to concentrate commercial uses in existing urban areas.
200,000 m2 of new commercial floor space will be warranted by 2031. As much as 41.5
Ha of additionally designated commercial land will be needed to accommodate this
commercial growth.
Growth Scenarios
In an effort to answer the questions regarding Clarington's future growth, the GMS presents
three alternative Growth Scenarios. The purpose of the Scenarios is to illustrate the potential
implications of growth. The three Growth Scenarios are as follows:
Scenario 1: Current Trend Scenario
The Current Trend Scenario reflects the continuation of historic patterns of growth with
respect to location, density and mix of uses. The purpose is to provide a base line for
benchmarking the metrics of the other two Scenarios, allowing for a comparison between past
trends and future alternatives. This Scenario assumes a 16% municipality-wide intensification
rate with development spread across a number of vacant sites throughout the three main
urban areas. From a greenfield perspective, the Current Trend Scenario assumes the historic
mix and densities will continue on uncommitted greenfield lands.
Scenario 2: Growing Durham
Scenario 2 presents our interpretation of the Region's growth management strategy, Growing
Durham for Clarington. The Scenario includes the foundation elements of Growing Durham,
including the density and intensification targets. This Scenario attempts to align the location of
growth with the Regional urban structure, as this Scenario focuses intensification along key
Corridors and the Town and Village Centres, and to a lesser extent,the Waterfront Places.
Growth Management Discussion Paper—March 2012
0
Scenario 3: Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character
Scenario 3 builds on Scenario 2 by taking into consideration the local character and nuances
that make each of the three urban settlement areas unique. The Scenario 3 assumes that the
urban structure provided in Growing Durham is a logical starting point for developing an
intensification strategy for Clarington. The Centres and Corridors offer the best potential for
transforming neighbourhoods within Clarington into more vibrant, mixed use, pedestrian-
oriented and transit supportive areas.
Evaluation of Scenarios — Key Findings
The purpose of the evaluation process is to examine a variety of implications and impacts
associated with the Growth Scenarios presented in Section 6. The evaluation framework is
divided into eight principles, which reflect the Vision discussed in Section 1 and highlight issues
of importance from the Provincial legislative context (i.e. Places to Grow, PPS), Regional
Growth Plan (Growing Durham), Official Plan principles for growth, stakeholder input and the
Corporate Strategic Plan:
• Create complete, healthy and sustainable communities;
• Protect provincial and local natural heritage system including agriculture;
• Attain balanced growth, where residential growth will complement employment
growth;
• Support transit and use infrastructure efficiently;
• Direct growth to corridors and mixed use centres;
• Direct most growth to urban areas;
• Maintain Bowmanville as the dominant urban centre; and,
• Maintain each community's individual identity through choice appropriate housing and
employment forms.
A brief summary of the key findings from the evaluation of the growth scenarios is provided
below:
• The Current Trend Scenario does not meet Provincial and Regional policy. Scenario 1,
Current Trends demonstrates that a continuation of current growth patterns could
result in a pattern which is inconsistent with Provincial and Regional policies. It is also
worth noting that the pattern would not achieve a number of the planning objectives
contained within Clarington's current Official Plan.
• Growing Durham provides a framework for managing growth. Scenario 2, Growing
Durham demonstrates that there are a number of positive benefits associated with
Growing Durham's vision for growth in Clarington, including a more efficient use of land
and infrastructure (compared to Scenario 1). Scenario 2 provides a desirable framework
for planning Clarington's future urban development. The proposed structure of
Growth Management Discussion Paper=March 2012 0
Centres, Corridors and greenfield areas provides the strategic basis for plann7and
allocating future growth in Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle.
• Some aspects of Crowing Durham are not suitable for Clarington. Some of the
technical planning assumptions which underpin Scenario 2 are unrealistic and could
compromise Clarington's growth potential. The density assumptions for greenfield land
are uncharacteristically high for Clarington. Using the non-statutory technical
assumptions from Growing Durham could potentially result in overestimating the
amount of development potential in Clarington. The density assumptions for some of
the intensification areas in Scenario 2 are equally unrealistic and do not conform with
the local character. For example, as noted in the Intensification Discussion Paper, there
is limited potential for intensification and infilling in Downtown Newcastle, and
densities of 75 upgh in this area would be inconsistent with the community character.
• Scenario 3 reconciles the main issues associated with Scenario 1 and 2. Scenario 3
uses the Growing Durham urban structure as the foundation for allocating growth and
assumes more realistic 'densities on Clarington's greenfield lands. Scenario 3 also
focuses the magnitude of intensification in the strategic places which are physically
capable of absorbing future development—Courtice Main Street, Courtice Town.Centre
and the Bowmanville West Town Centre — and provides a more sensible approach to
the historic areas of Newcastle Village Centre and Bowmanville East Town Centre.
Proposed Policy Directions
The following policy directions should be considered preliminary and are subject to the public
engagement and consultation exercise to be undertaken in the next phase of this study.
Generally, it is intended that these policy directions would provide the framework for an
Official Plan Amendment which would update the Municipality's Official Plan, bringing it into
conformity with Provincial and Regional legislation and also aligning the OP with local
aspirations for growth.
Clarington's Growth Management Strategy
® Clarington's urban growth management strategy is to direct residential growth to
strategic intensification areas and greenfield areas. Intensification areas are intended to
provide opportunities for compact, transit supportive, mixed use development. The
main intensification includes Clarington's Centres, Corridors and Waterfront Places. The
greenfield areas will provide opportunities for walkable, transit supportive residential
development. Additionally, some locations within the greenfield areas, such as portions
of the Corridors which are undeveloped, should also be developed as mixed use areas.
Growth Management Discussion Paper—March 2012
0
2031 Growth Forecasts
® Population. Clarington's population forecasts are presented in the table below;
Clarington Population by Community
I' M
2006 31,600 23,200 8,900 17,200 80,900
2011 36,700 24,500 11,100 17,500 89,700
2016 42,900 26,700 13,600 17,600 100,800
2021 50,400 29,300 16,500 17,800 114,100
2026 58,300 32,200 19,100 18,000 127,600
2031 66,400 35,000 20,900 18,100 140,300
Growth 34,700 11,800 12,000 900 59,400
2006-2031 110% 51% 134% 5% 74%
Source:Hemson Consulting Ltd.2010. Note: Population includes net under-coverage.
® Employment. Clarington's employment forecasts are presented in the following table:
Employment Forecast by Community
2006 . 8,000 5,300 1,110 3,380 3,150 20,940
2031 16,590 10,170 2,840 3,980 4,850 38,420
Growth(2006-2031) 8,590 4,870 1,730 600 1,700 17,480
107% 92% 155% 17% 54% 83%
2006 Employment 38.2% 25.3% 5,3% 16.1% 15.0% 100.0%
2031 Employment 43.2% 26.5% 7.4% 10.4% 12.6% 100.0%
Source: Hemson Consulting, March 10, 2010;total is rounded
Growth Management Discussion Paper-March 2012 0
Urban Structure
• Overall Urban Structure. The municipality's long term urban structure is comprised of
the following elements:
o Town Centres: Courtice Town Centre, Bowmanville East Town Centre,
Bowmanville West Town Centre, Newcastle Village Centre;
o Corridors: Highway 2 (Courtice Main Street), Bloor Street, King Street East,
Courtice Road;
o Greenfield Areas (including both future residential and residential areas);
o Waterfront Places; and,
o Employment Areas.
• Urban Areas. Clarington's urban growth is to be focused in the three main urban areas
of Courtice, Bowmanville and Newcastle. Lands within the urban boundary are either
serviced or planned to be serviced for future development.
• Built Boundary. Each urban area has its own unique built boundary. The built
boundaries for the three urban areas have been delineated by the Province of Ontario
and shall be used as a mechanism. for tracking and monitoring urban development.
Lands within the built boundary are considered to be intensification areas. Lands
outside of the built boundary which are located in the urban area are considered to be
greenfield areas.
Intensification Areas
• Intensification Target. Clarington's intensification target for the period of 2015-2031 is
32%. The overall housing unit target is planned to be 6,181 units.
• Intensification Priorities. The priority areas for intensification development between
now and 2031 are as follows: Courtice Main Street and the Courtice Town Centre;
Bowmanville East Town Centre; and, Courtice Road and Bloor Street Corridors.
• Other Intensification Areas. Where appropriate, intensification in other locations
should be supported where the development pattern is generally consistent with the
land use compatibility policies of the official plan.
• Density. Generally, the Town Centres will be planned to achieve a long term target of
75 units per gross hectare. The Newcastle Village Centre will be planned to achieve an
overall density target of 40 units per gross hectare. The Corridors will be planned to
achieve a long term density target of 60 units . per gross hectare. Individual
developments within these areas will be assessed in terms of the site specific density
provisions and land use compatibility criteria contained within the Official Plan.
Growth Management Discussion Paper—March 2012 0
• Intensification Action Plan. Clarington will support and encourage intensification by:
• Updating the secondary plans for all Town and Village Centres and Corridors;
• Developing an appropriate set of urban design standards and guidelines to
ensure that development is compatible with the surrounding neighbourhoods;
• Revise or write new Community Improvement Plans for each Town and Village
Centre, and Corridor;
• Prepare a phasing plan; and,
• Making strategic investments in public realm and infrastructure improvements
in the Town and Village Centres and Corridors.
• Monitoring the Intensification Rate. Clarington will monitor intensification on an
annual basis, which is to be calculated as all housing unit development within the built
up area.
Greenfield Areas
• Greenfield Target. Clarington's greenfield areas will be planned to achieve an overall
target of 50 people and jobs per gross hectare.
• Greenfield Development Phasing Criteria and Strategy. A large portion of greenfield
development has already been committed for future development. However, some of
these lands are not serviced and require either local or regional infrastructure to
proceed. In addition to this, there is a large supply of uncommitted greenfield which are
required to meet the Municipality's long term growth projections. For both the
committed and uncommitted lands, there is a need to prepare a phasing strategy which
examines:
• Access to existing municipal services;
• Access to planned municipal services (i.e. those services which have
environmental assessment approvals in place);
o Cost of municipal servicing;
• Financial implications of servicing and cost recovery; and,
• Options and recommendations for sequencing greenfield development.
• Greenfield Development Action Plan. Clarington will support and encourage greenfield
development by:
• Preparing secondary plans for the priority areas identified above;
• Reviewing and revising land use designations in the official plan;
Growth Management Discussion Paper—March 2012 0
• Developing an appropriate set of urban design standards and guidelines for
greenfield areas to ensure that development is transit supportive, well
connected and provides for a variety of housing types;
• Preparing a detailed phasing plan;
• Updating the density requirements in the Official Plan, including the addition of
minimum density targets;
• Identifying opportunities for local centres; and,
• Revising land use designations in the Official Plan to allow for mixed use
development in residential areas.
® Monitoring Greenfield Development. Clarington will monitor greenfield development
on annual basis and track conformity with the density targets. Where required, the
Municipality will update implementing policies in the Official Plan to ensure conformity
with density target.
Growth Management Discussion Paper—March 2012 0
Growth Management
Discussion Paper
Prepared By:
In collaboration with:
For:
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
PLANNING SERVICES DEPARTMENT
May 3, 2012
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Population, Households and Employment Targets, 2011-2031
Table 2.2 ROPA 128 Main Implications for Clarington
Table 3.1 Water Supply and Sewage Treatment
Table 3.2 Gross Hectares of Vacant Employment Lands by Servicing Status
Table 4.1 Percent Population by Age Clarington, Durham, Ontario
Table 4.2 Housing Unit Change, 1986-2006
Table 4.3 Committed Residential Units (in Development Inventory)
Table 4.4 Estimated Vacant Land in Designated Greenfield Areas
Table 4.5 Recent Housing Prices for Single Family Homes
Table 4.6 Highest Educational Attainment of Prime Working Age Group
Table 4.7 Estimated Jobs Growth in Clarington
Table 4.8 Median Income in 2005 - Households
Table 4.9 Commercial Floor Space Distribution
Table 4.10 Population Distribution
Table 4.11 Vacant Commercial Land Needs by 2031
Table 4.12 Vacant Commercial Land Needs (Ha)
Table 5.1 Clarington Population by Community
Table 5.2 Clarington Households by Community 2006-2031
Table 5.3 Forecasted Employment Growth by Community
Table 6.1 Scenario 1, Current Trends
Table 6.2 Scenario 2, Growing Durham
Table 6.3 Scenario 3, Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character
Table 7.1 Clarington Population by Community
Table 7.2 Employment Forecast by Community
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Growth Management From the Province to Clarington
Figure 1.2 Integrated Process Chart
Figure 2.1 New Urbanism Development
Figure 2.2 Sustainable Development in Alberta
Figure 2.3 The Region of Durham within the Greater Golden Horseshoe
Figure 2.4 Regional Municipality of Durham ROPA 128 Clarington Urban Structure
Figure 2.5a Density of 50 residents and jobs per hectare, Singles, Townhomes and
Apartments (Example A)
Figure 2.5b Density of 50 people and jobs per hectare, Singles, Townhomes and
Apartments (Example B)
Figure 2.6 Community at a density of 50 people and jobs per hectare
Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
ii
Figure 2.7 Streetscape of a Community at a density of 50 people and jobs per
hectare
Figure 2.8 Suburban Medium Density Residential Above Ground Floor Retail
Figure 2.9 Relationship of Height Coverage
Figure 2.10 Elements of a Vibrant, Compact, Attractive, Complete Community
Figure 3.1 Clarington Natural Heritage System
Figure 3.2 Proposed Courtice Sanitary Sewer
Figure 3.3 Transit and transportation System
Figure 3.4a Proposed Courtice Road GO Station (Darlington GO Station)
Figure 3.4b Proposed Martin Road GO Station (Bowmanville GO Station)
Figure 3.4c Proposed Courtice Layover Facility Site
Figure 3.5 Recommended Regional Road Transit Network Beyond 2031 (Clarington)
Figure 4.1 Clarington Urban Structure
Figure 4.2 Clarington Historic Population Growth
Figure 4.3 Percent Population by Age Clarington vs. Major Communities, 2006
Figure 4.4 Clarington Built-up Area Evolution 1985-2005
Figure 4.5 Example of Typical Build Form in Residential Neighbourhoods in Clarington
Figure 4.6 Existing Gross Density in Clarington 2006 Census
Figure 4.7 Historic Residential Building Permit Activity for Bowmanville, Courtice
and Newcastle 1998-2008
Figure 4.8 Components of the Residential Land and Employment Land Supply
Figure 4.9 Committed and Uncommitted Lands
Figure 4.10 Employment Lands in Clarington
Figure 5.1 Percent Population by Age, 2006
Figure 5.2 Percent Population by Age, 2031
Figure 5.3 Distribution of Housing Growth by Type 2006-2031
Figure 5.4 Clarington Total Forecast Housing by 2031
Figure 6.1 Framework for Growth Scenarios
Figure 6.2 Scenario 1: Current Trends
Figure 6.3 Scenario 2: Growing Durham
Figure 6.4 Scenario 3, Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character
Appendices
Appendix A Methodology for Establishing the Residential Land Supply
Appendix B Hemson Consulting Population and Employment Projections
Appendix C Scenario Evaluation Results
iii
Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
GROWTH MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION PAPER
Introduction
Planning for growth can be a challenging exercise. Typically, municipalities planning for long
term growth are required to consider a number of questions: Where should we grow? How
should we grow? What infrastructure investments are required to accommodate growth?
How will we pay for growth? What are the human health and environmental impacts
associated with growth? A Growth Management Study (GMS) is an integrated planning process
that provides an opportunity to address some of these key questions. A Growth Management
Study examines the implications of alternative land use decisions to better understand how
and where municipalities should grow over time. The outcome of this exercise is a series of
policy recommendations, which collectively can be referred to as a Growth Strategy.
Clarington is expected to experience strong population growth; between 2006 and 2031
Clarington will need to accommodate an additional 59,440 persons, 25,220 housing units and
17,520 jobs. This expected growth is a great opportunity to build a more sustainable and
business vision for growth.
Txamines how, when and where growth should occur by testing and
distributing the population and employment forecasts to the local urban
communities. The outcome of the GMS will have significant fiscal implications for the
Municipality and influence the provision of services and local infrastructure. The GMS will be
the basis for updating the Provincial Places to Grow
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Places to Grow) and the Amendment No. 128
to the Region of Durham Official Plan (ROPA 128).
Legislative Context
Places to Grow Growth Plan for
the Greater Golden Horseshoe and within ROPA 128, which was developed to conform to the
provincial plan. Places to Grow vision is one of compact settlement and development patterns
that are capable of providing diverse opportunities to work, live and participate in community
life; provincial policy directs the municipalities to address intensification, in-fill and brownfield
development as a starting point for the long-term land supply analysis.
Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
iv
Growth is also constrained by the Greenbelt Plan and the Oak Ridges Moraine that clearly
identify areas which are not suitable for urban growth and form an important foundation for
Official Plan designates an Open Space System and development within the Open Space
System is generally discouraged. Agricultural areas also represent an important component of
The Province has set an aggressive agenda for growth in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)
to focus growth on settlements areas and create compact, complete communities that make
efficient use of infrastructure and protects natural systems and agriculture. The Clarington
GMS must reflect Provincial direction.
ROPA 128
Regional Official Plan Amendment (ROPA 128) that defines how much growth is allocated to
Clarington, the shape of growth in terms of numbers and types of housing and number of jobs
as well as specific targets for intensification of use in delineated centres, corridors and
waterfront places. ROPA 128 allocates a total population target of 140,340 people, 52,120
households and 38,420 jobs to Clarington by 2031. The Clarington GMS must reflect the
policy directions.
On June 3, 2009 the Regional Council adopted ROPA 128. The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and
ROPA 128 on October 27, 2010. The Ministry
subsequently received 29 appeals to the decision, including an appeal from the Region, many
of them appealing the amendment in its entirety. Consequently, the Ontario Municipal Board
(OMB) is now the approval authority for ROPA 128.
Background
Moving forward to a new pattern of growth means understanding past and future trends and
having a vision for the future that builds on the past reinforcing the desirable characteristics
and encouraging change to meet new objectives. The following are the key conclusions about
the shape of growth and drivers for growth in Clarington:
Over the short term, all of the treatment facilities servicing the urban communities in
Clarington have some capacity to support additional growth. However, servicing
improvements are needed to meet projected long term goal as there appears to be
insufficient resource capacity to support intensification along the major corridors,
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Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
regional centres and to support Greenfield development in both residential and
employment areas.
Sustainable transportation improvements are needed. Currently, the transportation
system in Clarington is primarily oriented towards vehicular traffic travelling on public
roadways with a heavy focus on the use of private automobiles to support personal
mobility and the use of trucks to support goods movement. Transit is limited in
Clarington though two new GO stations are proposed in Courtice and Bowmanville.
Without significant improvements, the opportunity for sustainable transportation is
limited in the short term to allow residents to take transit, bike or walk to work and to
other daily activities.
There are a number of planned infrastructure improvements which have the potential
to drive future growth opportunities in Clarington, including 407 extension, 401-407
link, GO service and treatment plant expansions.
Over 80% of Clarington is made up of significant natural heritage systems and
agriculture that is not suitable for development. The natural heritage system makes up
the spine and underlying structure for any future growth.
Clarington has experienced rapid growth in the last decade (particularly in
Bowmanville) and this is expected to continue. The population has slightly aged
particularly in Newcastle and the rural areas while household size is shrinking and will
continue to shrink. These trends in aging of the population will continue. Clarington
needs to continue to accommodate rapid growth and a slightly aging population
primarily in urban areas. On the other hand, the rural areas/hamlets have experienced
limited growth and this is expected to continue into the future.
Low density residential sub-divisions on the outskirts of the three urban centres have
been the predominant housing type and will continue unless an active strategy for
change is implemented. Under this new strategy most of the new housing growth will
occur in the urban communities of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle. Currently the
new neighbourhoods are predominantly car-oriented, mainly single use residential
dwellings with few amenities or nearby employment uses. Single family housing is
relatively affordable in Clarington which enhances the popularity of this housing type.
There is more than an 8 year committed supply of largely low density residential land
representing about 38% of the currently approved growth area. Clarington has more
Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
vi
than 7,400 residential units in the committed development inventory; more than 67%
of the units are located on greenfield lands and 32% are located within the built-up
boundary (and thus are considered intensification). Despite any desire for change,
development patterns are largely pre-determined for the next decade because of the
large inventory of approved low density sub-divisions.
A significant number of residents go outside the municipality to work. The existing
business parks are underutilized and in most cases (except Courtice) separated from
the residential areas making it difficult to encourage transit/bike/pedestrian travel to
work. There are some key economic opportunities to build on in Clarington including
the Clarington Energy Park, the proposed Technology Park and Darlington Nuclear
Station Upgrade and Refurbishment.
The preferred approach is to concentrate commercial uses in existing urban areas.
200,000 m2 of new commercial floor space will be warranted by 2031. As much as 41.5
Ha of additionally designated commercial land will be needed to accommodate this
commercial growth.
Growth Scenarios
In an effort to answer the questions presents
three alternative Growth Scenarios. The purpose of the Scenarios is to illustrate the potential
implications of growth. The three Growth Scenarios are as follows:
Scenario 1: Current Trend Scenario
The Current Trend Scenario reflects the continuation of historic patterns of growth with
respect to location, density and mix of uses. The purpose is to provide a base line for
benchmarking the metrics of the other two Scenarios, allowing for a comparison between past
trends and future alternatives. This Scenario assumes a 16% municipality-wide intensification
rate with development spread across a number of vacant sites throughout the three main
urban areas. From a greenfield perspective, the Current Trend Scenario assumes the historic
mix and densities will continue on uncommitted greenfield lands.
Scenario 2: Growing Durham
Growing
Durham for Clarington. The Scenario includes the foundation elements of Growing Durham,
including the density and intensification targets. This Scenario attempts to align the location of
growth with the Regional urban structure, as this Scenario focuses intensification along key
Corridors and the Town and Village Centres, and to a lesser extent, the Waterfront Places.
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Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
Scenario 3: Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character
Scenario 3 builds on Scenario 2 by taking into consideration the local character and nuances
that make each of the three urban settlement areas unique. The Scenario 3 assumes that the
urban structure provided in Growing Durham is a logical starting point for developing an
intensification strategy for Clarington. The Centres and Corridors offer the best potential for
transforming neighbourhoods within Clarington into more vibrant, mixed use, pedestrian-
oriented and transit supportive areas.
Evaluation of Scenarios Key Findings
The purpose of the evaluation process is to examine a variety of implications and impacts
associated with the Growth Scenarios presented in Section 6. The evaluation framework is
divided into eight principles, which reflect the Vision discussed in Section 1 and highlight issues
of importance from the Provincial legislative context (i.e. Places to Grow, PPS), Regional
Growth Plan (Growing Durham), Official Plan principles for growth, stakeholder input and the
Corporate Strategic Plan:
Create complete, healthy and sustainable communities;
Protect provincial and local natural heritage system including agriculture;
Attain balanced growth, where residential growth will complement employment
growth;
Support transit and use infrastructure efficiently;
Direct growth to corridors and mixed use centres;
Direct most growth to urban areas;
Maintain Bowmanville as the dominant urban centre; and,
employment forms.
A brief summary of the key findings from the evaluation of the growth scenarios is provided
below:
The Current Trend Scenario does not meet Provincial and Regional policy. Scenario 1,
Current Trends demonstrates that a continuation of current growth patterns could
result in a pattern which is inconsistent with Provincial and Regional policies. It is also
worth noting that the pattern would not achieve a number of the planning objectives
Growing Durham provides a framework for managing growth. Scenario 2, Growing
Durham demonstrates that there are a number of positive benefits associated with
Growing Durham
and infrastructure (compared to Scenario 1). Scenario 2 provides a desirable framework
Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
viii
Centres, Corridors and greenfield areas provides the strategic basis for planning and
allocating future growth in Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle.
Some aspects of Growing Durham are not suitable for Clarington. Some of the
technical planning assumptions which underpin Scenario 2 are unrealistic and could
are uncharacteristically high for Clarington. Using the non-statutory technical
assumptions from Growing Durham could potentially result in overestimating the
amount of development potential in Clarington. The density assumptions for some of
the intensification areas in Scenario 2 are equally unrealistic and do not conform with
the local character. For example, as noted in the Intensification Discussion Paper, there
is limited potential for intensification and infilling in Downtown Newcastle, and
densities of 75 upgh in this area would be inconsistent with the community character.
Scenario 3 reconciles the main issues associated with Scenario 1 and 2. Scenario 3
uses the Growing Durham urban structure as the foundation for allocating growth and
focuses the magnitude of intensification in the strategic places which are physically
capable of absorbing future development Courtice Main Street, Courtice Town Centre
and the Bowmanville West Town Centre and provides a more sensible approach to
the historic areas of Newcastle Village Centre and Bowmanville East Town Centre.
Proposed Policy Directions
The following policy directions should be considered preliminary and are subject to the public
engagement and consultation exercise to be undertaken in the next phase of this study.
Generally, it is intended that these policy directions would provide the framework for an
conformity with Provincial and Regional legislation and also aligning the OP with local
aspirations for growth.
C
strategic intensification areas and greenfield areas. Intensification areas are intended to
provide opportunities for compact, transit supportive, mixed use development. The
ma
greenfield areas will provide opportunities for walkable, transit supportive residential
development. Additionally, some locations within the greenfield areas, such as portions
of the Corridors which are undeveloped, should also be developed as mixed use areas.
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Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
2031 Growth Forecasts
Population. the table below:
Clarington Population by Community
Hamlet/
Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Total
Year
31,600 23,200 8,900 17,200 80,900
2006
36,700 24,500 11,100 17,500 89,700
2011
42,900 26,700 13,600 17,600 100,800
2016
50,400 29,300 16,500 17,800 114,100
2021
58,300 32,200 19,100 18,000 127,600
2026
66,400 35,000 20,900 18,100 140,300
2031
34,700 11,800 12,000 900 59,400
Growth
110% 51% 134% 5% 74%
2006-2031
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2010. Note: Population includes net under-coverage.
Employment. in the following table:
Employment Forecast by Community
Special
Employment Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Areas Total
2006 8,000 5,300 1,110 3,380 3,150 20,940
2031 16,590 10,170 2,840 3,980 4,850 38,420
Growth (2006-2031) 8,590 4,870 1,730 600 1,700 17,480
107% 92% 155% 17% 54% 83%
% 2006 Employment 38.2% 25.3% 5.3% 16.1% 15.0% 100.0%
% 2031 Employment 43.2% 26.5% 7.4% 10.4% 12.6% 100.0%
Source: Hemson Consulting, March 10, 2010; total is rounded
Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
x
Urban Structure
Overall Urban Structure.
the following elements:
Town Centres: Courtice Town Centre, Bowmanville East Town Centre,
o
Bowmanville West Town Centre, Newcastle Village Centre;
Corridors: Highway 2 (Courtice Main Street), Bloor Street, King Street East,
o
Courtice Road;
Greenfield Areas (including both future residential and residential areas);
o
Waterfront Places; and,
o
Employment Areas.
o
Urban Areas. is to be focused in the three main urban areas
of Courtice, Bowmanville and Newcastle. Lands within the urban boundary are either
serviced or planned to be serviced for future development.
Built Boundary. Each urban area has its own unique built boundary. The built
boundaries for the three urban areas have been delineated by the Province of Ontario
and shall be used as a mechanism for tracking and monitoring urban development.
Lands within the built boundary are considered to be intensification areas. Lands
outside of the built boundary which are located in the urban area are considered to be
greenfield areas.
Intensification Areas
Intensification Target. -2031 is
32%. The overall housing unit target is planned to be 6,181 units.
Intensification Priorities. The priority areas for intensification development between
now and 2031 are as follows: Courtice Main Street and the Courtice Town Centre;
Bowmanville East Town Centre; and, Courtice Road and Bloor Street Corridors.
Other Intensification Areas. Where appropriate, intensification in other locations
should be supported where the development pattern is generally consistent with the
land use compatibility policies of the official plan.
Density. Generally, the Town Centres will be planned to achieve a long term target of
75 units per gross hectare. The Newcastle Village Centre will be planned to achieve an
overall density target of 40 units per gross hectare. The Corridors will be planned to
achieve a long term density target of 60 units per gross hectare. Individual
developments within these areas will be assessed in terms of the site specific density
provisions and land use compatibility criteria contained within the Official Plan.
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Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
Intensification Action Plan. Clarington will support and encourage intensification by:
Updating the secondary plans for all Town and Village Centres and Corridors;
o
Developing an appropriate set of urban design standards and guidelines to
o
ensure that development is compatible with the surrounding neighbourhoods;
Revise or write new Community Improvement Plans for each Town and Village
o
Centre, and Corridor;
Prepare a phasing plan; and,
o
Making strategic investments in public realm and infrastructure improvements
o
in the Town and Village Centres and Corridors.
Monitoring the Intensification Rate. Clarington will monitor intensification on an
annual basis, which is to be calculated as all housing unit development within the built
up area.
Greenfield Areas
Greenfield Target.
target of 50 people and jobs per gross hectare.
Greenfield Development Phasing Criteria and Strategy. A large portion of greenfield
development has already been committed for future development. However, some of
these lands are not serviced and require either local or regional infrastructure to
proceed. In addition to this, there is a large supply of uncommitted greenfield which are
ojections. For both the
committed and uncommitted lands, there is a need to prepare a phasing strategy which
examines:
Access to existing municipal services;
o
Access to planned municipal services (i.e. those services which have
o
environmental assessment approvals in place);
Cost of municipal servicing;
o
Financial implications of servicing and cost recovery; and,
o
Options and recommendations for sequencing greenfield development.
o
Greenfield Development Action Plan. Clarington will support and encourage greenfield
development by:
Preparing secondary plans for the priority areas identified above;
o
Reviewing and revising land use designations in the official plan;
o
Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
xii
Developing an appropriate set of urban design standards and guidelines for
o
greenfield areas to ensure that development is transit supportive, well
connected and provides for a variety of housing types;
Preparing a detailed phasing plan;
o
Updating the density requirements in the Official Plan, including the addition of
o
minimum density targets;
Identifying opportunities for local centres; and,
o
Revising land use designations in the Official Plan to allow for mixed use
o
development in residential areas.
Monitoring Greenfield Development. Clarington will monitor greenfield development
on annual basis and track conformity with the density targets. Where required, the
Municipality will update implementing policies in the Official Plan to ensure conformity
with density target.
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Growth Management Discussion Paper May 2012
Section 1
Introduction
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
0
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 What is Growth Management?
Where should we grow? How should
Planning for growth can be a challenging
we grow?
exercise. Typically, municipalities planning for
What are the implications of our
long term growth are required to consider a
current growth trend?
number of questions: Where should we grow?
Growing
How should we grow? What infrastructure
Durham strategy mean for Clarington?
investments are required to accommodate
What infrastructure investments are
growth? How will we pay for growth? What
required to accommodate growth?
are the human health and environmental
What are the human health and
impacts associated with growth? A Growth
environmental impacts associated
Management Study (GMS) is an integrated
with growth?
planning process that provides an opportunity
Do we have enough lands designated
to address some of these key questions. A
for growth?
Growth Management Study examines the
A Growth Management Study helps to
implications of alternative land use decisions to
provide answers to these questions
better understand how and where
municipalities should grow over time. The
outcome of this exercise is a series of policy recommendations, which collectively can be
referred to as a Growth Strategy.
1.2 Understanding the Drivers for the Growth
Management Study
The Growth Management Study (GMS) for the Municipality of
originally adopted in 1996. Since that time a number of changes
have occurred: 1. Clarington has continued to grow and expand;
2. the Province of Ontario has implemented major legislative
changes, including the 2005 Provincial Policy Statement; and, 3.
the Region of Durham has updated its Official Plan. In response
to these changes, the Municipality initiated the Official Plan
Review (OPR) processand the Growth Management Study is one of the main components in
the OPR process.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
1
Why is Clarington Preparing a Growth Management Study?
In response to Places to Grow, ROPA 128
when and where growth should occur by testing and distributing the ROPA 128
population and employment forecasts to the local urban communities. The GMS is
intended to provide strategic direction for the long term growth of Clarington and will
This GMS fits within the legisl Places to Grow Growth Plan for
the Greater Golden Horseshoe (hereafter referred as Places to Grow), that came into effect on
June 16, 2006. Places to Grow provides population and employment projections to 2031 for
the Greater Golden Horseshoe and mandates upper tier and single tier municipalities to
undertake further sub-area assessmentsfrom
80,900 in 2006 to approximately 140,340 by 2031 (an increment of 59,440 people) and will
need to accommodate an additional 25,220 housing units and 17,520 jobs. This Provincial
initiative, will have a significant impact on how, where and when Clarington will accommodate
this growth. The Places to Grow Act, 2005 mandates that Official Plans must be updated to
conform to Places to Grow.
thin the As part of
the Region of Durham Places to
Grow policies, it initiated the Growing Durham process in July 2007. The goal of this study was
to determine the urban land needs in Durham in response to the Growth Plan's population and
employment forecasts, as well as intensification and greenfield density targets. Growing
Durham also developed a recommended growth scenario for Durham and its member
municipalities to 2031 and a refined policy framework to better manage urban growth. On
June 3, 2009 the Regional Council adopted the Growing Durham policy directions as
ROPA 128). The Ministry of Municipal
ROPA 128 on October 27, 2010. The
Ministry subsequently received 29 appeals to the decision, including an appeal from the
Region, many of them appealing the amendment in its entirety. Consequently, the Ontario
Municipal Board (OMB) is now the approval authority for ROPA 128.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
2
The recommendations in Growing Durham and ROPA 128
Plan. Should ROPA 128 be approved by the OMB, an amendment to the Regional Official Plan
Figure 1.1: Growth Management From the Province to Clarington
Places to Grow
GrowingDurham
/ROPA 128
Clarington Growth
Management
will be needed if Clarington were to choose to pursue a policy that was not in conformity with
that plan. Figure 1.1 illustrates the relationship between Places to Grow, Growing Durham
(ROPA 128) and Clarington GMS.
and other stakeholders have expressed a desire for change. In 2008, the Municipality
undertook a broad sweeping consultation program on growth and sustainability which
included public sessions; meetings with stakeholder groups; and, a Survey to Residents and
Business Owners. The resulting community priorities can be grouped into three main topics:
Protection of the natural environment;
Creation of jobs; and,
Maintenance/promotion of community identity and small town/rural character.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
3
The Municipality also prepared a new Corporate Strategic Plan. Collectively, these exercises
resulted in a new vision for growth (presented below) which attempts to balance directions
from the province with local character and considerations.
Vision for Growth
Create complete, healthy and sustainable communities;
Protect provincial and local natural heritage system including agriculture;
Attain balanced growth, where residential growth will complement employment growth;
Support transit and use infrastructure efficiently;
Direct growth to corridors and mixed use centres;
Direct most growth to urban areas;
Maintain Bowmanville as the dominant urban centre; and,
Mainta
and employment forms. Character includes:
Bowmanville dominant urban centre containing wide range of residential,
o
employment, institutional and cultural uses, retain small town character and
main street centre;
Newcastle retain village character, retain vibrant downtown main street
o
with village feel;
Courtice improve and define character, develop Courtice Main Street as
o
vibrant urban centre;
Orono retain current village feel, minor growth within partial service
o
constraints/opportunity;
Rural Hamlets retain rural hamlet character through minimal growth; and,
o
Waterfront places provide opportunities for vibrant waterfront places.
o
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
4
What does sustainability mean?
a response to the desire for growth to occur in a
Sustainability considers social,
sustainable manner that addresses economic,
economic, cultural and environmental
social and environmental considerations. The
issues and opportunities to create
Study will focus on the urban areas and will
desirable outcomes.
address higher level concerns such as population
Sustainable communities meet the
and employment allocations, servicing systems,
diverse needs of existing and future
provisions for health care and community
residents and contribute to a high
programs and facilities, transportation impacts,
quality of life by providing
and protecting significant agricultural lands and
opportunities for residents to live,
environmental features.
work and find recreation within
transit, walking or biking distance.
A Sustainable Community Framework for Clarington
Social Sustainability: Clarington will support compact complete
communities, where people of all ages can find diverse and
affordable homes and can live in proximity of their workplaces,
shops, schools, parks and civic facilities within interconnected
walking/transit networks.
Environmental Sustainability: The natural environment will be
preserved and enhanced and open green spaces and corridors in
Clarington will form the underlying fabric for the shape and feel
of the community. Buildings, public spaces and infrastructure
will be built to reduce the environmental footprint of
neighbourhoods.
Economic Sustainability: Employment areas throughout
Clarington will be supported to attract businesses that provide a
range of job opportunities for all ages.
Cultural Sustainability: The cultural heritage of Clarington,
including its historical downtowns, will be preserved and
enhanced; arts and culture amenities will be developed to attract
residents and visitors.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
5
1.3 Study Process & Organization
Aspects of the OPR are being undertaken by Dillon Consulting Limited (Dillon), Joseph Bogdan
and Associates (Bogdan) and EDP Consulting (EDP) under the guidance and direction of the
Clarington Official Plan Review Working Committee (Working Committee) and the Clarington
Steering Committee (Steering Committee). The Working Committee is comprised of key
members of the Community Planning and Design Department, Engineering Services and
Finance Department as well as the Region of Durham. The Steering
Committee is comprised by the Directors of the municipal departments. In addition, the study
team has been working closely with AECOM and Hemson Consulting Ltd. AECOM has been
providing input regarding transportation and infrastructure issues and Hemson has been
preparing population and employment projections.
The Growth Management Study, summarized in this Discussion Paper, involves an integrated
effort and synthesizes input from various critical components of the Official Plan Review, such
as the intensification strategy, employment lands analysis, Courtice Main Street study, and the
parks, open space and trails plan. Figure 1.2 illustrates the integration of these components.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
6
Figure 1.2: Integrated Process Chart
The following Growth Management Discussion Paper is organized into seven sections. This first
section provides an introduction to the Paper, explaining the basic project drivers, growth
management and the planning process. The second section presents the broad context for the
GMS, identifying some of the broader global and regional trends in growth management and
the existing legislative context. The third section presents the existing and planned conditions
for planning, infrastructure and the environment.
urban structure and growth trends. The fifth section presents Claringto1 growth
projections. The sixth section identifies three alternative growth scenarios. The seventh section
provides a discussion and analysis of the growth scenarios and also presents the proposed
policy directions.
1.4 Consultation and Engagement
Consultation with government agencies and stakeholders is essential for every component of
the Official Plan Review, including this Growth Management Discussion Paper. The
recommendations of this Discussion Paper are considered to be draft and open for debate and
discussion. A series of public open houses will be held to receive feedback and input on the
recommendations contained within this Paper. The feedback received will be incorporated into
is the implementation component
of the overall OPR process.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
7
Section 2
Context for Growth
Management
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
8
2 CONTEXT FOR GROWTH MANAGEMENT
This section of the Discussion Paper contains a series of discrete subsections which address
two contextual elements: global, provincial, regional and trends; and growth-related
legislation. The legislative context is presented through a discussion of the Planning Act, the
Provincial Policy Statement, applicable provincial plans (Greenbelt Plan, Oak Ridges Moraine
Conservation Plan and the Places to Grow) and regional plans (Growing Durham and Region of
Durham Official Plan Amendment 128).
2.1 Overview of Global, Provincial and Regional Trends
2.1.1 A Global Movement
Urban jurisdictions throughout the world
What is Smart Growth?
are increasingly confronted with a series of
Public concerns about suburban sprawl
deteriorating conditions related to
and traffic congestion made headlines in
environmental, social and economic issues.
newspapers, opinion polls and other
Some of these issues include increased
media formats throughout the 1990s.
automobile dependency, increased traffic
congestion, sprawling development, higher
grew out of the new urbanism,
infrastructure costs, lack of affordable
environmental and anti-sprawl
housing, air pollution, water and soil
movements in North America. Generally,
contamination and rising energy cost. At
the concept of encourages growth
the same time cities are faced with the
management, higher densities, compact
pressure to accommodate rapid growth
built form, transit supportive
and development. Strategies are being
development, environmental protection
implemented throughout the world in
and fiscal responsibility.
order to create more environmental, social
and sustainable communities, reduce
1
greenhouse gas emission and reduce the dependence of fossil fuels. and
2
have been some of the
responses to contain urban sprawl, reduce traffic congestion, reduce the effects of urban
growth in the environment, and make a better use of infrastructure.
1
White, Richard (2007). The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in Historical Perspective. The Neptis
Foundation.
2
Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Smart Growth/Smart Energy Toolkit
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
9
A key challenge for the Municipality of
What is New Urbanism?
Clarington is planning for long term growth in
Sometimes referred to as Traditional
a manner that addresses a number of crucial
-
economic, environmental and social
tr
conditions. This Official Plan Review intends
urbanism promotes the creation of
to help address this challenge. Figure 2.1
diverse, compact, mixed-use
below provides an example of a development
communities. One of the distinguishing
designed based on New Urbanism.
characteristics of new urbanism is the
use of traditional forms of building
2.1.2 Clarington in the Provincial Context
The Province of Ontario has a vision for strong,
architecture and neighbourhood design
liveable and sustainable communities. In an
(e.g. small lots, rear lane ways).
effort to materialize that vision, the province
has created a policy context (i.e. Provincial Policy Statement, Places to Grow Plan, Greenbelt
Plan) and implementation tools. The policy context has established a greenbelt and stronger
urban boundaries to respond to rapid urban sprawl, address increased traffic congestion and
protect agricultural lands and natural heritage.
Figure 2.1: Assembly Square, Somerville, Massachusetts
Mixed use development along the Mystic River, includes retail, office, residential and institutional uses in a
dense, walkable, transit oriented neighbourhood that provides housing, recreational and employment
opportunities. Source: Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Smart Growth/Smart Energy Toolkit- Case
Studies.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
10
and social factors will require Clarington to focus additional efforts to facilitate intensification,
in-fill and brownfields and the coordinated and cost-effective delivery of public infrastructure.
Many municipalities in Ontario are already incorporating the Provincial directions and Smart
Growth principles and creating more sustainable communities. For example, the City of
Ottawa has amended its Official Plan to include policies and strategies responding to the
provincial directions and aiming to create a sustainable city. Master
Plan, Greenspace Master Plan, Environmental Strategy and Intensification strategy, among
other strategies, also provide tools to support the
economic sustainability. Other provinces are also showing advances towards creating more
sustainable communities. Figure 2.2 shows an example of sustainable development in
Okotoks, a small community south of Calgary, Alberta.
Figure 2.2: Drake Landing Solar Community, Okotoks, AB
First solar seasonal storage community in North America, with a district heating and seasonal
storage system designed to supply more than 90% of the space heating requirements with solar
energy. Source: Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (2007). The Drake Landing Solar Community
Project
2.1.3 Clarington in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
The Municipality of Clarington is located in the Region of Durham, in the Eastern portion of the
Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)
located in Central Ontario, stretches from Simcoe County in the north to Niagara Region in the
south, to Peterborough and Northumberland Counties in the east and to Waterloo Region in
the west. The Region of Durham is located in the eastern edge of the GGH area and comprises
eight local municipalities: Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, and Clarington, located along the
Lake Ontario shoreline and along the Highway 401; and, Uxbridge, Brock, and Scugog, located
to the northern part of the Region.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
11
Provincial Goals for Growth
Figure 2.3: The Region of Durham within the
Management
Greater Golden Horseshoe
Maintain a sufficient supply of land to
accommodate growth
Focus growth within settlement areas,
and specifically within Built-Up areas
Create vibrant, compact and complete
communities
Protect natural heritage, agriculture
and resources
Make efficient use of infrastructure
Preserve and protect employment
lands
Promote compact built form and
encourage mixed use development
Protect watercourses, wetlands and
shorelines
Protect existing and future sources of
Source: Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal
municipal drinking water
(2006). Places to Grow: Growth Plan for the
Greater Golden Horseshoe
The Province of Ontario introduced the Places to Grow Act (2005) to provide the legal
framework for growth planning in Ontario. The subsequent 2006 Places to Grow: Growth Plan
for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Places to Grow) focuses on strategic decision making. Places
to Grow builds on other planning and growth management initiatives, specifically the
Greenbelt Plan and Provincial Policy Statement. The vision is one of compact
settlement and development patterns that are capable of providing diverse opportunities to
new growth will be accommodated in existing urban areas. Greenfield development will have
to be planned at higher densities, and the conversion of rural/agricultural lands to urban uses
will only be permitted under strict conditions. Figure 2.3 shows the area covered by Places to
Grow and the location of the Region of Durham within the GGH.
Municipalities throughout the GGH are required to conform to Places to Grow policies. Many
municipalities are not only revising their Official Plans to conform to the Provincial policies,
they are also implementing additional policies and strategies to achieve compact development,
intensification and minimal urban boundary expansions. For example, Markham, East
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
12
Gwillimbury, Mississauga and Pickering have also implemented or are in the process of
implementing policies, strategies and tools to create more sustainable, compact and transit
oriented communities.
The following section describes the implications of Places to Grow for Clarington.
2.2 Legislative Context
2.2.1 Provincially Led Growth Management
The provincial policy framework encourages land use planning that looks beyond municipal
boundaries and addresses the three interrelated components of economy, environment and
community. The provincial policy context establishes a clear vision and then provides the tools
needed to ensure the vision becomes reality. The language used in all of the provincial plans
reflects a desire for clear direction on matters the government believes is essential to ensuring
that communities grow in a well-planned and coordinated way.
A summary of the key directions provided by this Provincial Planning Framework for future
growth and the implications for Clarington are presented below:
Planning Act: The Planning Act (Act) as amended by the Strong Communities (Planning
Amendment) Act is the enabling legislation for land use planning in Ontario. The Municipality
of Clarington uses the Act when preparing and reviewing official plans and planning policies
that will guide future development considering provincial interests, such as protecting and
managing our natural resources.
Provincial Policy Statement (PPS): All decisions affecting land use
planning matters shall be consistent with the PPS. The PPS requires
official plans and related land use decisions to:
Focus growth within settlement areas and promote the vitality
of those areas;
Limit residential development and other rural land uses in rural
areas;
Protect prime agricultural areas for long-term use for
agriculture;
Protect locally important resources areas and aggregate
operations;
Make provision for sufficient land to accommodate an appropriate range and mix of land
uses to meet projected needs for up to 20 years; with a focus on maximizing
intensification and redevelopment opportunities;
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
13
Make provision for land use patterns that offer a mix of uses and densities;
Efficiently utilize available or planned infrastructure and public service facilities;
Maintain the ability to accommodate residential growth for a minimum of 10 years
through intensification and redevelopment; and,
Permit and facilitate the provision of all types of housing, including all forms of residential
intensification and redevelopment in order to meet current and future needs.
Places to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe: Places
to Grow (2006) provides the legal framework for growth planning in
Ontario. Its main policy directions are as follows:
By the year 2015 and for each year thereafter, a minimum of 40
per cent of all residential development occurring annually within
each municipality be within the Built-Up area.
MPIR provided the Municipality with the built boundaries for
Courtice, Bowmanville, Newcastle Village and Orono. The Built
boundary was delineated for settlement areas that have full municipal
services, which will be targeted for intensification, or will accommodate significant future
growth. Areas inside the built boundary are considered -areas.
A number of communities in the
What is the Built Boundary?
municipality were also identified as
The former Ministry of Public
-up areas, which are
Infrastructure Renewal (MPIR), in
smaller, unserviced or partially-serviced
consultation with municipalities,
small towns and hamlets, which have
delineated the built boundary for urban
limited capacity to accommodate
centres throughout the Greater Golden
significant future growth. These include
Horseshoe. The built boundary is a line
Brownsville, Newtonville, Mitchell
that represents the limits of what was
Corners, Hampton, Solina, Kirby, Kendal,
built on the ground as of June 2006.
Enniskillen, Haydon, Tyrone, Enfield, and
The lands outside of the built boundary
Burketon.
are considered Greenfield. The built
Development in designated greenfield
boundary is an important tool for
areas will need to achieve minimum
monitoring intensification and the
density targets not less than 50 residents
implementation of the Growth Plan.
and jobs combined per hectare.
This density target will be measured over
the entire designated greenfield area, excluding where environmentally significant
features are both identified in any applicable official plan or provincial plan, and where
the applicable provincial plan or policy statement prohibits development.
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Places to Grow established population and employment
projections for 2031 at a total of 960,000 persons, 350,000
households and 350,000 jobs, respectively, for the Region of
Durham. Through Growing Durham the Region further
distributed this population and employment projections
among its lower tier municipalities.
The following features are excluded from the greenfield
density target: wetlands; coastal wetlands; woodlands;
valley lands; Areas of Natural or Scientific Interest (ANSI);
habitat of endangered species and threatened species;
wildlife habitat; and, fish habitat.
Greenbelt Plan: The Greenbelt is a band of permanently protected land. The Greenbelt and
the Oak Ridges Moraine areas cover the northern and eastern portion of Clarington,
approximately the 81% of the municipality, designating the majority of the land as
areas, mainly in Courtice and Bowmanville.
Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan: The Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan was
established by the Province of Ontario to provide resource management and land use direction
for land and water within the Moraine. This plan area covers the Northern portion of the
municipality.
Conservation Authorities Act: The Development, Interference with Wetlands & Alterations to
Shorelines and Watercourses Regulation, made under the Conservation Authorities Act, affects
what and where a Conservation Authority (CA) can regulate. Three Conservation Authorities
have jurisdiction within the municipality: Central Lake Ontario CA; Kawartha Region CA; and,
Ganaraska Region CA.
Clean Water Act (CWA): The Clean Water Act is intended to protect existing and future sources
of municipal drinking water including ground water and surface water. The municipality falls
under two different source water protection regions as follows:
CTC, formed by Credit Valley, Toronto and Region and Central Lake Ontario Conservation
Authorities; and,
Trent Conservation Coalition, which includes Kawartha-Haliburton, Otonabee-
Peterborough, Crowe Valley, Ganaraska and Lower Trent Conservation Authorities.
Long term growth planning must incorporate the policies and recommendations resulting
from the Source Protection Committees.
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2.2.2 Region of DurhamPlan
The Province mandates that municipalities complete Growth Management Plans in conformity
to the Places to Grow Act. The Region of Durham completed a Growth Plan (Growing Durham)
and an amendment to its official plan (ROPA 128) to bring the plan into conformity with Places
to Grow. ROPA 128 allocated targets for population, employment and households for each of
the single-tier municipalities. Table 2.2 shows the allocations for Clarington for the period
2011-2031.
Table 2.1: Population, Households and Employment Targets, 2011-2031
Year
Municipality of
Clarington
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Urban Population 72,705 81,665 92,635 111,915 124,685
Rural Population 15,275 15,380 15,465 15,565 15,655
Total Population 80,900 87,980 97,050 108,100 127,480 140,340
Households 26,900 30,225 34,025 39,170 46,585 52,120
Employment 20,900 22,575 26,895 32,150 36,070 38,420
Source: Region of Durham Official Plan, Amendment No. 128, as of June 23, 2011 and Hemson Consulting,
2010.
The amended Regional Official Plan (ROP)
ROPA 128 Projections for Clarington:
identifies intensification target, greenfield density
ROPA 128 projections estimate that
target and establishes Centres, Corridors and
there will be 59,440 more people by
Waterfront Places as the key growing areas to
2031 (an increase of 73% from 2006),
achieve the Region-wide target of 40%
25,220 more housing units and
intensification within the built-up area. Table 2.2
17,520 more jobs in Clarington.
summarizes the main implications of ROPA 128
Housing units and job growth
for Clarington based on the June 23, 2011
represent a 94% and 83% increase
Regional Official Plan consolidation document.
from 2006 to 2031.
These implications may change as a result of the
OMB decisions on the appeals to ROPA 128.
Table 2.2: ROPA 128 Main Implications for Clarington
Intensification is 32% of its total unit growth by 2015 and
Target each year thereafter (approximately 6,181 units).
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Table 2.2: ROPA 128 Main Implications for Clarington
Greenfield Greenfield development has a target gross 3 density of 50 persons and jobs
Density combined per hectares and accommodates as a minimum all forecasted
employment in designated Employment Areas.
Greenfield Municipalities shall plan the urban areas accomplishing an orderly and
Development sequential build-out, by ensuring that Secondary plan areas shall be
developed to 75% of their planned low, medium, and high density dwelling
unit capacity prior to the approval of draft plans of subdivision in adjacent
secondary plan areas.
Development of greenfield Living Areas that are greater than approximately
20 hectares shall only proceed in accordance with an approved secondary
plan. These plans shall consider the provision of: a range and mix of
housing; a diverse and compatible mix of land uses; high quality public open
spaces; transit, walking and cycling; and, achieve an appropriate transition to
adjacent areas.
Regional Regional Centres (and Urban Growth Centres) are identified as focal points
Centres of urban development in the Region. Identified Bowmanville Town Centres
(East and West), Courtice Town Centre and Newcastle Village Centre as
Regional Centres, which shall be planned and developed as mixed use areas
with the main concentration of urban activities. These Regional Centres
shall support an overall, long-term density target of at least 75 residential
4
units per gross hectare and a floor space index of 2.5.
Local Centres Local Urban Centres, as designated in area municipal official plans, shall be
planned to complement those activities and services provided in the
Regional Centres. These Local Centres shall support an overall, long-term
density target of at least 30 residential units per gross hectare and a floor
space index of 2.0.
Regional Identified the Courtice Main Street Corridor (Highway 2), Courtice Road
Corridors (south of Highway 2) and Bloor Street in Courtice and King Street in
Bowmanville as Regional Corridors. These corridors shall be planned and
developed as higher density, mixed-use areas, supporting higher order
transit services and pedestrian oriented development. Regional Corridors
3
ROPA 128 defines Gross Density as a means of measuring the ratio of people, jobs or units to a broad land area,
excluding significant natural heritage features and major infrastructure.
4
Floor Space Index (FSI): FSI is the ratio of gross floor area of a building to its respective lot area. For example, a
lot with an area of 10,000 square metres would support a building of 25,000 square metres or more, based on an
FSI of 2.5 (ratio of 2.5:1).
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
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Table 2.2: ROPA 128 Main Implications for Clarington
shall support an overall, long term density target of at least 60 residential
units per gross hectare and a floor space index of 2.5.
Local Corridors Local Corridors, as designated in local municipal official plan, shall be
planned and developed as mixed-use areas, with appropriate densities to
support frequent transit service and provide efficient transportation links to
the Regional Centres. The Local Corridors shall support an overall long-term
density target of at least 30 residential units per gross hectare and a floor
space index of 2.0.
Waterfront Identified Port Darlington in Bowmanville and Port of Newcastle in
Places Newcastle Village as Waterfront Places, which are to be developed as focal
points along the waterfront, having a mix of uses, integrated with the
Greenlands System. Where appropriate, Waterfront Places shall be planned
to support an overall, long-term density of at least 60 residential units per
gross hectare and a floor space index of 2.0.
Urban
Boundary
Expansions
Eastward expansion of the Courtice Urban Area boundary on an area
measuring approximately 109 hectares, bounded by Courtice Road,
Highway 2 and Bloor Street and re-
North-westward expansion of the Wilmot Creek Retirement
Community, Phase 8, re-designating approximately 21.6 HA in west
of Newcastle from Prime Agricultural to Living Area. The area is
bounded by the 401, Bennett Road and the CN Railway.
These expansions are still to be confirmed as they were identified as a Non-
Decision In the Ministry approved Regional Official Plan.
Also indicates an urban boundary expansions to accommodate
Eastward expansion of the Orono Urban Area boundary on a parcel
measuring approximately 29.2 hectares east of Highway 35/115
partial municipal services overlay. This expansion has been the topic
of a Deferral D4 in the Regional Official Plan since 1996 at the request
of the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. The deferral relates
to the lack of available municipal water and sewer to this area. There
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Table 2.2: ROPA 128 Main Implications for Clarington
was a Non-Decision on this expansion in the Ministry approved
Regional Official Plan.
Expansions to the Urban Area boundaries beyond those shown on Schedule
'A' Regional Structure shall only occur through a comprehensive review of
the Regional Official Plan.
Employment Designated Employment Areas shall accommodate a minimum 50% of all
Areas forecast employment.
Land Supply Municipalities have to provide for a minimum 10-year housing and
employment land needs Region-wide, with logical and sequential
development patterns.
Further details regarding the regional growth strategy are contained in the Growing Durham
Study and in the ROPA 128. Figure 2.4 shows the regional structure for the Municipality of
Clarington as established in ROPA 128.
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Figure 2.4: Region of Durham, ROPA 128, Clarington Urban Structure
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2.2.3 Transportation Planning Policy Context
The Policy Framework discussed in the previous sections
includes components that address transportation and the
importance of the relationship between transportation
planning and land use planning. At the Provincial level
Places to Grow plan The Big Move provide
a clear vision supporting goals for the transportation
systems within the Greater Golden Horseshoe area.
Similarly, through ROPA 128 and the Durham
Transportation Master Plan (2005), the Region of Durham
has further refined the vision and goals in a context that is
more geographically specific.
The interconnected nature of the provincial, regional and
local transportation systems further highlights the need
lates to all forms of
transportation. The following points summarize key themes from the provincial and regional
policy framework that relate to the local growth management, land use planning,
transportation planning and infrastructure investment decisions that will be incorporated into
Providing multiple modal choices to the travelling public with a priority focus on
increasing the modal share of public transit (i.e. local bus, commuter rail, etc.) and
active transportation (i.e. walking and cycling) while reducing dependency on the
automobile.
Interconnecting the infrastructure and systems that facilitate non-automobile related
modal choices in order to improve the effectiveness and attractiveness of those choices.
Focusing development and intensification towards transit station areas and major
transportation corridors where existing and future investments in public transit
infrastructure can support mixed uses and higher densities that create travel
destinations.
Ensuring that the facilities at transit hubs are accessible by a variety of modes.
Implementation of a diverse Transportation Demand Management (TDM) program that
involves municipalities as well as employers and seeks to provide long-term solutions to
traffic congestion by reducing the number of and shortening the distance of single
occupant vehicle trips.
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Recognizing that the majority of freight in the GTA moves by truck and thus efficient
operation of all levels of the road network plays a key role in supporting the movement
of goods and the economy at a local, regional and provincial level.
In moving towards conformity with the Provincial and Regional growth plans the
the planning policy context above.
2.2.4 Commentary on the Metrics of Growth Management
What does the Places to Grow target of 50 people and jobs per gross hectare mean?
The following illustrations provide an example of a typical suburban residential subdivision at a
density of 50 residents and jobs per gross hectare (Region of Waterloo 2007). They illustrate
that the form of growth would be denser than many neighbourhoods in Clarington but still
provides an attractive neighbourhood streetscape.
In Figures 2.5a and 2.5b, growth is visualized in two communities with an area of 60 ha and
100ha. Example A has approximately 15.8 residential units per gross ha and has lot frontages
ranging from 5.5 m to 15 m for townhomes, semis and single detached housing. This scenario
provides 3.3 ha of open space, two storeys of commercial buildings, and an 8-storey apartment
building (Region of Waterloo 2007). In this community, the housing composition mix is
comprised of 60% low density consisting of singles and semi detached homes, 24% medium
density such as townhomes, and 13% high density in the form of a mid-rise apartment building.
Figure 2.5b: Density of 50 people and jobs per
Figure 2.5a: Density of 50 residents and jobs per
gross hectare, Singles, Townhomes and gross hectare, Singles, Townhomes and
Apartments (Example B)
Apartments (Example A)
Source: Region of Waterloo (2007). Visualizing
Source: Region of Waterloo (2007). Visualizing Densities
Part II: Future Possibilities. Densities Part II: Future Possibilities.
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In Figure 2.6, a density of 50 residents and jobs
Gross vs. Net Density
per gross hectare can be achieved by narrower
Gross Density is a means of
single and semi-detached parcels, an increase in
measuring the ratio of people, jobs
the number of townhomes, two four-storey and
or units to a broad land area,
two 13-storey apartment buildings. Lot
excluding significant natural heritage
frontages range from 5.5 m to 14.2 m for singles,
features and major infrastructure.
semis and townhomes. This design also retains a
Net Density is a ratio of people, jobs
large open space area of about 10.4 ha and
or units per buildable hectare,
numerous larger parcels with low density
excluding publicly owned roads,
housing (Region of Waterloo 2007). This
walkways, institutional uses, parks,
community exhibits a residential composition
stormwater management ponds,
mix of 60% low density housing in the form of
commercial uses, etc.
single detached and semi detached homes, 15%
The gross to net factor varies
medium density housing in the form of
depending on many factors,
townhouses, and 25% high density housing in
including the urban form and land
the form of three low and mid-rise apartments
uses. For example, ROPA 128 used
buildings.
approximately 45% of the gross land
to calculate the net density.
Figure 2.6: Community at a gross density of 50 people and jobs per hectare
Figure 2.7 presents another example of a community in the Williamsburg Study Area in the City
of Kitchener with a density of 50 people and jobs per gross hectare, with lot frontages ranging
from 5.5 m to 13 m. The community is comprised of single and semi detached homes
interspersed with townhomes.
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Figure 2.7: Streetscape of a Community at a gross density of 50 people and jobs per hectare
Communities at a density of 50 people and jobs per gross hectare can exhibit a mix use
development and lots that are narrower and deeper. These communities support a range of
services that can be located nearby, including a library, childcare facility, resource centre, retail
commercial activities and open space network allowing residents greater access and flexibility.
Higher plan densities meeting the required density of 50 people and jobs per hectare can still
be achieved while maintaining the desirable characteristics of the current small town feel of
Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle. Figure 2.8 presents an example of a suburban medium
density residential development with above ground floor retail located in Markam, Ontario.
Figure 2.8: Suburban Medium Density Residential Above Ground Floor Retail
Copyright Queen's Printer for Ontario, photo source: Ontario
Growth Secretariat, Ministry of Infrastructure
What Do the Growing Durham Centres and Corridors Targets Mean for Clarington?
As noted earlier, ROPA 128 established desired targets for the Regional Centres and Corridors
throughout the Region. The Regional Centres located in Courtice, Bowmanville and Newcastle
shall support an overall, long-term density target of at least 75 residential units per gross
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hectare and a floor space index (FSI) of 2.5.
Figure 2.9 Relationship of Height Coverage
Regional Corridors shall support an overall, long-
term density target of at least 60 residential
units per gross hectare and an FSI of 2.5.
Figure 2.9 illustrates the relationship of height
coverage on a site. The less area of a site that is
utilized for building, or coverage, the higher the
building height must be to meet the FSI. The
more coverage a building has, the lower the
building height can be, meaning that is the
Achieving 2.5 FSI in an urban form of fewer
stories (which is more compatible with
be achieved with greater land coverage. Some parking must be accommodated underground.
Density and Built Form in Intensification Areas
Best practices review of density and built form in intensification areas is detailed in the
Intensification Discussion Paper that form part of this Official Plan Review. Below are some
examples of medium and high density developments recently built in Clarington and other
areas in the GTA.
Costal Villas, Port of Newcastle
Condominium buildings located along the Lake
Ontario waterfront at the southern edge of the Port
of Newcastle development. The base of each
building provides covered parking and storage,
creating a surface for terraces for the first floor
units.
Building Height: 3 storeys
Number of Units: 54
Density: 41.2 units/ net hectare
Parking: Surface Parking
FSI: 0.56
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The Towns of Liberty, Bowmanville
Compact group of townhouses organized in seven
blocks of three and four townhomes around an
internal drive aisle and small play area / roundabout.
street and a driveway and garage off the internal
street. The internal street is a tight, 6m (20ft)
pavement width giving the development an intimate,
neighbourly atmosphere. This project is a good
example of a compact, residential scaled, medium
Building Height: 3 storeys
Number of Units: 27
density development that would be compatible in
Density: 37.5 units/ net hectare
most low-rise, established neighbourhoods.
Parking: Surface Parking
FSI: 0.63
Aspen Heights Condominiums, Bowmanville
Low rise condominium development built on the
edge of one of Bowmanvilles established suburban
neighbourhoods, south of Highway 2, the
communitys main east-west traffic route. The site
borders a CN Rail Corridor. In addition, a
neighbourhood commercial complex is planned
within a few minutes walk.
Building Height: 3 storeys
Number of Units: 164
Density: 60 units/ net hectare
Parking: Surface Parking
FSI: 0.51
Elsey Building, Oshawa Massey Square Condominiums and Towns,
Toronto
Density: 330 units/net hectare
Parking: Underground parking
Density: 240 units/net hectare
FSI: 2.7
Parking: Underground parking
FSI: 3.0
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The Boardwalk Condominiums, Toronto
This Low-rise condominium building is located
along Lakeshore Boulevard, at the southern end of
a recently developed compact neighbourhood on
the former Woodbine Racetrack site, adjacent to
Torontos established Beaches community. The
neighbourhood is a mix of singles, semi-detached
and townhomes, mixed use retail/residential
buildings and a large community park, all organized
Building Height: 5 storeys
on a highly regular grid.
Number of Units: 99
Density: 154 units/ net hectare
Parking: Underground
Building Height: 5 storeys
Number of Units: 99
Density: 154 units/ net hectare
Parking: Underground
FSI: 2.0
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2.3 A Framework for Managing Growth
The following sub-section describes a sustainable development framework that will be used as
the basis for developing the growth scenarios. It also describes how Clarington has many
greenfield, greyfield, in-fill and other intensification areas.
The Provincial policy framework requires municipalities to manage urban growth in a
sustainable manner, creating vibrant, compact, attractive and complete communities.
Complete and sustainable communities are more than places to live and work they are also
places for recreation, with amenities to fulfill the daily needs of their population. They are also
economic engines that contribute to the local and Regional economies. They are exciting places
providing a variety of entertainment choices to its residents and visitors. They protect the
natural environment and respectfully integrate natural features with recreational activities and
into the urban development.
The core elements that contribute to the development of complete and sustainable
communities are graphically depicted in Figure 2.10. There are at least nine distinct ingredients
that characterize attractive, vibrant and successful neighbourhoods. While the graphic shows
each element as being distinct from one another, they are actually heavily integrated and
mutually supportive of one another. All these elements can contribute to create a complete
and sustainable Clarington, constituting key principles to manage future urban growth. Each
characteristic and its relationship to the others is explained below.
Figure 2.10: Elements of a Vibrant, Compact, Attractive, Complete Community
Unique Features
Diversity of
Compact Form
and
Housing Forms
and Density
Amenities
and Tenures
Connections,
Protection of
High Quality
Natural Environment
Infrastructure to
Public Realm and
and Agricultural
Support Growth
Pedestrian
Resources
Environment
Diversity Range of
Strong and Diverse
and Mixture of Transportation
Economy
Land Uses Choices
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2.3.1 Compact Form and Density
Density measures the mass of people living
and/or working within a given area. Compact
and denser urban forms use infrastructure
more efficiently, create walkable
environments and provide greater access to
amenities. This form of development also
provides market opportunity for a range of
retail destinations and supports housing
choice and affordability. Density helps expand
transportation choices, and provides the
ridership needed to make bus and rail transit
viable and a competitive transportation
option. Dense development can improve community fiscal health by reducing infrastructure
duplication and making efficient use of present capacity. Higher densities reduce the impact of
the built area on the environment by concentrating development and people within a smaller
geographic area.
Higher densities in greenfield areas include a variety of housing forms on smaller lots: single
detached, semi-detached, townhouses and low and mid-rise apartments. It also includes local
centres and corridors that contain a variety of uses, mixed-use buildings, amenities and transit
facilities.
developed with a low density and a lot and road pattern that cannot accommodate the
elements of a compact community (see Section 4). New policies in the Official Plan should
direct development in the greenfield areas to achieve a compact and denser urban form and
identify local centres and corridors to concentrate local amenities. Greenfield areas adjacent to
Regional Corridors in Courtice and Bowmanville have the opportunity to be developed with
higher densities and more variety of housing types than in the past. This type of development
could also generate the demand for higher levels of transit and create more walkable
communities.
Typical housing forms found within densely populated intensification areas include low, mid
and high rise apartment buildings and walk-up and stacked town homes. Population related
employment uses are typically mid and high rise office and commercial buildings (and multi-
story retail uses). These housing and employment forms allow for a critical mass of people to
live and work within a concentrated area in close proximity to one another, thus increasing the
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
29
overall density of the area. This critical mass of people helps to support the wide variety of land
uses and transportation modes found within intensification neighbourhoods.
Clarington has many sites with potential for intensification with higher densities. The
Intensification Strategy completed as part of the Official Plan Review, identified areas that are
more suitable for higher density development (i.e. along centres and corridors). The
Intensification Strategy recommended appropriate specific policy directions and changes to the
Official Plan. This focus on compact and denser urban forms would be consistent with the
Region of Du ROPA 128, which included policies encouraging higher densities, mixed
uses and compact urban form along Regional and Local centres and corridors and waterfront
places, while protecting the historic downtowns.
2.3.2 Diversity and Mix of Land Uses
Sustainable greenfield developments serve more
than one function. These neighbourhoods
contain an identifiable centre which
concentrates community services, amenities and
commercial activities in a compact, walkable
form. In addition, these amenities (such as
community and senior centres, schools,
recreational areas, libraries and cultural centres)
are located within 8 to 10 minutes walking
distance from the majority of the dwellings.
ROPA 128 includes policies directing the location
of community facilities within walking distance or in close proximity to existing and future
transit routes. These neighbourhoods also contain employment opportunities, which provide
the ability for live and work in the same community.
Vibrant and successful intensification areas contain a diversity and mix of land uses and tend to
provide a large critical mass of complimentary uses which are multiple traffic generators,
providing activities for a variety of different users (different ages, different interests etc.). These
areas provide residential, commercial, employment, recreational, entertainment, public service
and institutional and cultural uses that are integrated and mixed throughout the area. In this
way, all parts of the area maintain constant activity throughout the day and into the evening.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
30
-use with few
amenities in the peripheries. Clarington has the opportunity to create more diverse
neighbourhoods, in both new greenfield and intensification areas, with amenities, retail and
employment opportunities located within walking distance from most of the residences.
Portions of regional and local corridors could become mixed-use areas with the opportunity to
live, work, shop and recreate locally.
Employment areas in Clarington are also mostly
single-use and segregated from the residential
areas. Amenities to support the needs of
employees (i.e. small commercial areas,
restaurants, personal services, day cares, bank
services) should be encouraged. This will reduce
the need for employees to drive long distances
outside the employment areas to fulfill daily
necessities.
2.3.3 Range of Transportation Choices
Vibrant areas that attract a diversity of people require a diverse range of transportation choices
so as to reduce congestion and minimize the need for parking space, thereby maximizing the
amount of developable lands. Reciprocally, a wide
range of transportation choices requires a critical mass
of people to support it. A typical range of
transportation choices within a neighbourhood might
include walking, cycling, transit and automobile.
In compact, complete communities, schools, parks,
community and senior centres, convenience
commercial and other amenities are located within
walking or cycling distance of residential areas,
reducing the residents need to drive to those places for
5
their daily needs. The Ontario Ministry of
-Supportive Land Use Planning
5
City of Calgary (2004). Transit Oriented Development Best Practices Handbook. It is estimated that a radial
walking distance of 400-600 meters (approximately 8-10 minute walk) from higher-order transit facilities is
appropriate in intensification areas to support transit.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
31
Guidelines recommends a residential density of 10 units per gross hectare to support one-hour
transit service.
If Clarington wants to grow more sustainable, a plan must be
implemented to reduce the reliance on cars. As such, higher densities,
intensification and the location of transit supportive uses along centres
and corridors will promote greater transit ridership and will support
frequent transit service. Transit supportive uses also provide
opportunities for multi-purpose trips that pedestrians can complete
6
during single trips. The location of such uses in a walking distance of the
existing and proposed transit hubs (i.e. proposed GO Stations in Courtice
and Bowmanville) will make transit a more convenient and attractive
mode of transportation for those areas.
In addition, the Greater Toronto Transit Authorities (GTTA) plan, The Big Move, already
proposed future interregional transit service to be provided by the GO network at Bowmanville
and Courtice and identified a new transportation corridor along the planned Highway 407 and
the 407 link. Region of Durham Official Plan and ROPA 128 also include policies supporting
compact and denser urban forms, as well as convenient access to public transportation.
Moreover, the Region of Durham is undertaking several studies to further explore and plan for
the future development of local transit infrastructure and consideration of the potential for
Light Rapid Transit, Transit-Oriented Developments and Transit Demand Management
strategies (see Section 3.3). These initiatives will provide better connections between the
municipality and the rest of the GTA and will reduce the dependence on automobiles for daily
commuting needs.
2.3.4 Numerous Connections, High Quality Public Realm and Pedestrian Environment
Successful and attractive neighbourhoods are
well connected to their surrounding
neighbourhoods, contain year-round connected
pedestrian and cycling networks and have a
favourable pedestrian environment. These
connections cater to pedestrians, cyclists, transit
users and automobile users and allow people to
enter and exit the area from a variety of routes.
In these neighbourhoods, street and block
6
Ibid. See the Glossary for a definition of Transit Supportive Uses.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
32
patterns provide interconnection, linkages, and walkability. Cul-de-sacs are discouraged in
connected communities; instead, these contain medium to short block lengths (100 to
7
150 metres in length). Street design includes continuous sidewalks, appropriate width, and
access to the local pedestrian/trail system; it also promotes an intimate pedestrian scale,
safety, slow traffic and optimized land use.
Through policy directions, Clarington could increase street connectivity for its future
neighbourhoods, with clear pedestrian and bicycle routes; short distances to key destinations;
continuous sidewalks and pathways that are easy to find and follow; connections to transit
facilities; and minimal conflict between vehicular and pedestrian ways.
Thriving intensification and greenfield areas also usually have high quality public realms. These
public amenities are shared spaces and might
include courtyards, well lighted walkways, public
plazas, civic buildings and enclosed public spaces.
These elements reinforce one another and provide
a network of spaces which enhance the overall
public realm of the area. An enhanced public realm
helps to draw people into the area and supports
the requirement for denser housing forms.
Successful and vibrant intensification areas also
cater to pedestrians first, providing an
environment which supports pedestrian movement. Components such as pedestrian malls,
linear main streets, colonnades for weather protection, public squares, public art, active
ƭƷƚƩĻŅƩƚƓƷƭͲ ƭźķĻǞğƌƉ ĭğŅĽƭ ğƓķ ƷƩğźƌ ƌźƓƉğŭĻƭ ğƌƌ ŷĻƌƦ Ʒƚ ƭǒƦƦƚƩƷ ğ ƦĻķĻƭƷƩźğƓ ŅźƩƭƷ ğƷƒƚƭƦŷĻƩĻ͵
7
Ibid
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
33
This pedestrian first atmosphere adds to the overall vibrancy of the area and reduces
dependence on the automobile for internal travel, thereby supporting the diversity of modes
and connections required to build a vibrant and successful intensification neighbourhood.
Clarington has the opportunity to create neighbourhoods with an improved grid-based street
pattern, with frequent, interconnected and walkable streets, shorter blocks, continuous
sidewalks, enhanced pedestrian/trail system and with high quality public realm in both
intensification and greenfield areas. Clarington already has very active and attractive
pedestrian oriented streets in the historic downtowns in Bowmanville, Newcastle and Orono.
The character of these main street areas could be replicated along other regional and local
corridors, particularly in the Courtice Main Street corridor, and along the proposed corridors in
Courtice Road and Bloor Street. In addition, with the location of attractive gateways and focal
points along main corridors and centres, Clarington has the potential to attract businesses that
will benefit from high levels of pedestrian traffic.
2.3.5 Diversity of Housing Forms and Tenures
Complete communities have a variety of housing
choices to accommodate its diverse population
base. Providing a mix of both ownership and
rental opportunities and housing forms, including
apartments and townhomes helps to attract a
range of people (such as students, singles, small
families and seniors). Accommodating a diverse
population can create a greater support for local
businesses and shops, more diverse range of
services for residents, and ultimately produces a
more vibrant and energetic city. Accommodating a
critical mass of people to support transit service means providing a variety of housing types and
tenures suited to a wide range of potential residents.
by single
and semi-detached homes. Although more recent developments have included a higher
proportion of townhouses and apartments, a significant shift has to be done to create
neighbourhoods with more diverse housing types and tenure. In addition, with an aging
population, Clarington will need to start accommodating developments targeted for seniors,
such as long-term care facilities and retirement condominium developments.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
34
2.3.6 Unique Features, Community Facilities and Amenities
Unique features, community facilities and amenities are destinations that draw people in.
These include places like libraries, art galleries, museums, movie and performance theatres,
sports and recreational facilities, health care facilities, schools, colleges and universities and
also specialty retail and shopping areas. Important landmarks, including buildings and public
art are also considered to be unique features. The location of one-of-kind buildings and
amenities provide a magnet to attract people into the area, thereby providing support to the
higher densities required within these areas. Community facilities also have the potenital to
become anchors for town centres, mixed use nodes or other special activity areas.
In addition, complete communities have a positive and strong sense of place. A positive sense
of place is defined by places within the municipality
that have a unique built form and, or, natural
environment. Strong sense of place also contributes
the communities to identify and support a positive
image of the municipality. Activities such as city-
wide events, festivals and functions help to create a
strong sense of place and identity. Clarington has
very stable and vibrant historic downtowns in the
communities of Bowmanville, Newcastle and Orono.
Reinforcing and enhancing its downtowns could
have a great influence on creating a sense of place
and identity and on creating a complete and vibrant
Clarington.
2.3.7 Infrastructure to Support Growth
Sustainable communities make responsible, strategic and adequate investments in
infrastructure to support growth that will benefit its residents and businesses over the long
term. Building compact communities make efficient use of available and new infrastructure.
Land use planning decisions allocate new infrastructure to areas which have more potential to
produce multiple benefits to a wide range of stakeholders. Wise and strategic Municipal,
Regional and Provincial investment in infrastructure can support smart growth and
sustainability. In Clarington, water, wastewater and transit services are provided by the Region.
Consequently, Municipal authorities and local stakeholders have to discuss with the Region of
Durham where the best and more efficient investment in infrastructure would be in the future.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
35
One of the pre-requisites for building a successful
intensification area is adequate supply of
appropriate infrastructure. Intensification areas
require water and wastewater capacity to support
development and may also require innovative
techniques to address stormwater issues. While
these services tend to be invisible for the most part,
as a rule there are required to support dense urban
development, particularly in older areas where
servicing may be in poor condition due to age. In
additional to traditional infrastructure requirements, other services, such as wireless networks
are increasingly important for attracting people and businesses into an area.
Within the Clarington context, the efficient use of infrastructure can be achieved by developing
areas suited for intensification and infill to a level that is supported by the capacity of the
existing infrastructure, without significant need to remove and replace otherwise adequate
infrastructure. This will allow additional development to be supported by previous
infrastructure investments. Conversely, replacing existing infrastructure in adequate condition
within an existing developed area is typically more expensive than constructing new
infrastructure in greenfield areas and effectively shortens the lifecycle of the initial
infrastructure investment.
Focusing future greenfield development in a smaller number of geographic areas and timing
development to proceed in sequential, mutually-supportive phases will allow Clarington to
realize several efficiencies, including:
infrastructure investments could support several development projects in a more
concentrated area;
infrastructure can be readily planned and extended ahead of sequential development;
compact development allows infrastructure projects to be undertaken in a coordinated
fashion where they can be more readily designed and constructed to complement one
another; and,
developing in focused locations allows infrastructure to be more quickly developed with
potential savings realized by avoiding the need to implement temporary or interim
solutions.
In addition, incorporating sustainable development strategies that help to reduce the per-
capita demand from both existing and future development (i.e. conservation measures) can
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
36
help to reduce the need for water and wastewater infrastructure expansion and help to
alleviate capacity constraints in water distribution and sewage collection networks. Similarly,
local stormwater controls such as low-impact development techniques (i.e. permeable
pavements, bio-swales, bioretention, green roofs) can provide environmental benefits and
reduce the need to for high capacity conveyance infrastructure.
2.3.8 Protection and Enhancement of the Natural Heritage and Agricultural Resources
Successful and sustainable communities develop supporting, protecting and enhancing their
natural heritage system. Decisions about future development and growth are weighted with
careful consideration of how change will impact air,
watercourses, terrestrial features, fish habitats,
agriculture and resources. Planning objectives
contained in Provincial legislation are centered in the
protection of the natural environment through smart
growth, the efficient management of land uses and
the development of communities with compact
urban form. In addition, Provincial legislation also
encourages the creation of an open space system
within the urban and built-up areas.
As noted earlier, more than three quarters of the
municipality is within the Greenbelt and Oak Ridges Moraine protection areas. In addition,
Clarington has strong policies to protect its Natural Heritage System in its Official
Plan, specifically to preserve the environmental protection areas and green spaces. The
protection and enhancement of the environment is also a priority for the community and one
of the fundamental goals for the growth
management strategy.
Clarington also could achieve the protection of the
environment through the reduction of its urban
development footprint and the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions. There are many
elements that can contribute to reduce the
greenhouse gas emissions, including a compact
urban form, the use of green infrastructure,
conservation of water and energy, use of renewable
energy, use of green building materials, reduction of private automobile dependence and
provision of a wide range of transportation choices.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
37
od not
resources and achieving local food security is an important component of a sustainable
community.
The transition between urban, rural and natural areas is also an important aspect of managing
growth. Ideally, there should be a relatively smooth transition between urban uses and rural
uses. Setbacks, parks, community uses, trails, open spaces, natural vegetated buffers and
landscaping can help to minimize land use conflict and compatibility along the urban fringe.
Provincial policy directions included in the PPS, Greenbelt Plan and Places to Grow, protect
prime agricultural areas for long-term use for agriculture. As a result, Provincial policies focus
growth within settlement areas with a minimum
expansion of urban boundaries. In addition, the
Regional Official Plan has the objectives to support
community food security and protect and maintain
agricultural land for future generations. ROPA 128
directs local municipalities to protect prime
agricultural areas as a significant element of the
These policy directions from the Province and the
the municipality to preserve the natural environment and the agricultural lands; they support
the conservation of green spaces and agricultural areas and the maintenance of urban
separators between urban communities.
2.3.9 Strong and Diverse Economy
Complete and sustainable communities maintain strong and competitive economies, with a
stable environment for investment, adequate land for employment, qualified labour force and
an efficient transportation network for the movement of people and goods. Clarington has a
vast amount of employment lands; however it is largely under-serviced and vacant. Even
though there are large designated employment areas and important sources of employment in
the municipality
proportion of Clarington residents commute to other municipalities to work.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
38
Provincial policy requires that municipalities designate and maintain adequate supply of lands
for a variety of employment uses to accommodate their population needs and future growth.
Special policies should be developed to make Clarington more attractive for investment, to
retain employers and to ensure that employment areas are viable and an important element of
the municipal structure. Employment opportunities also should be created in strategic
locations throughout Clarington, such as downtown areas, and mixed-use centres and corridors
that are walkable distance from the residential areas and can be frequently serviced by transit.
Many of the elements described in this section have been included in the policy directions from
the Region. ROPA 128 directs municipalities to prepare Secondary Plans for the development
of greenfield areas larger than 20 hectares. These plans shall include the provision of a range
and mix of housing, taking into account affordable housing needs; the permission of secondary
suites throughout the built up area within the Region; and the provision of a diverse and
compatible mix of land uses. This will support vibrant neighbourhoods, providing high quality
public open spaces with site design and urban design standards that create attractive and
vibrant places, support transit, walking and cycling and achieve an appropriate transition to
adjacent areas.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
39
Section 2 Conclusions
This section presents key trends related to growth management as well as policies from a
number of legislations and plans. Many of these policies provide a foundation in
developing the growth options in the GMS. The following summarizes the key points in
this section:
The provincial policy framework encourages land use planning that looks beyond
municipal boundaries and addresses the three interrelated components of economy,
environment and community;
Provincial policy directs the municipalities to address intensification, in-fill and
brownfield development as a starting point for the long-term land supply analysis;
Strategies are being implemented throughout the world in order to create more
environmental, social and sustainable communities, encouraging higher residential
densities, greater use of public transit and more efficient use of infrastructure;
The Province of Ontario has a vision for strong, liveable and sustainable communities.
Many municipalities in Ontario are already incorporating the Provincial directions and
The vision of Places to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe is one of
compact settlement and development patterns that are capable of providing diverse
opportunities to work, live and participate in community life;
The Provincial Policy Statement requires official plans and related land use decisions to
focus growth within settlement areas and promote the vitality of those areas; limit
residential development and other rural land uses in rural areas; and, protect prime
agricultural areas for long-term use for agriculture;
The Greenbelt Plan and the Oak Ridges Moraine clearly identify areas which are not
suitable for urban growth; these lands form an important foundation for the
The Places To Grow population, housing and employment forecasts allocates a total
population of 960,000 people and 350,000 jobs to the Region of Durham by 2031;
Growing Durham and the subsequent ROPA 128 allocates a total population target of
140,340 people, 52,120 households and 38,420 jobs to Clarington by 2031. The
intensification target for Clarington for the 2015-2031 period is 6,181 residential units
which will account for 32% of the residential growth;
ROPA 128 indicates two urban boundary expansions within the lands designated as
Orono.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
40
Section 2 Conclusions (continued)
Places to Grow, The Big Move, ROPA 128 and the Durham Transportation Master Plan
provide a clear vision supporting goals for the transportation systems within the
Clarington area;
ROPA 128 identifies Regional Centres and Corridors in the communities of
Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle and allocates them density and FSI targets:
Regional Centres: Density of 75 units per gross ha and 2.5 FSI, and
o
Regional Corridors: Density of 60 units per gross ha and 2.5 FSI.
o
There are at least nine distinct factors that support the development of attractive,
vibrant and successful neighbourhoods, including: compact form and density; diversity
and mix of land uses; range of transportation choices; numerous connections, high
quality of public realm and pedestrian environment; diversity of housing forms and
tenures; unique features and amenities; infrastructure to support growth; protection
and enhancement of the natural heritage and agricultural resources; and, strong and
diverse economy. All these elements can contribute to create a complete and
sustainable Clarington, constituting key principles to manage future urban growth;
Higher plan densities meeting the required density of 50 people and jobs per hectare
can still be achieved while maintaining the desirable characteristics of the current
small town feel of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle;
It will be important that adequate buffering and transitioning of lands surrounding
farm operations be provided to help existing farms remain viable and limit conflicts at
the urban/rural fringe.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
41
Section 3
Environment
& Infrastructure
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
42
3 ENVIRONMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE
3.1 Protecting the Natural Environment and Agricultural Areas
The natural heritage system is a fundamental
The natural heritage system is a
component of the overall municipal
significant permanent component of
structure, as it defines some of the areas
the municipal structure, covering
which are not suitable for urban
development. As mentioned in Section 2, the
The open space system and the
Greenbelt and Oak Ridges Moraine areas
agricultural areas function as
cover more than 80% of the municipality,
desirable urban separators among
restricting urban growth to the area
the three main communities
immediately north of the existing urban areas
of Bowmanville and Courtice and to the east
of Newcastle. Lands within the Greenbelt plan area, which includes areas within the Oak Ridges
Moraine, are not considered suitable for future urban development. Figure 3.1 illustrates the
Natural Heritage system in Clarington.
In addition to the provincial designated Greenbelt and Oak Ridges Moraine, Clarington Official
Plan designates an Open Space System which consists of Environmental Protection Area,
Natural Core Areas, Natural Linkage Areas, the Waterfront Greenway and Green Space.
Development within the designated Open Space System is generally discouraged. Official Plan
policies indicate that where a development or redevelopment proposal includes non-
developable land or land designated as Environmental Protection Area, Council may request
that such land be dedicated to the Municipality. However, where lands are designated
Environmental Protection Area, Green Space, Waterfront Greenway or Oak Ridges Moraine, it
does not necessarily mean the Municipality will acquire private lands for public use.
Within the Open Space system, the Environmental Protection Areas are recognized as the most
significant component of the m
protected from human activity. In addition, Green Space lands are intended to link other
significant components of the local Open Space System. Finally, Waterfront Greenway areas
are designated to ensure that the unique physical, natural and cultural attributes of these areas
are protected and regenerated. Recreational uses, compatible tourism uses, conservation, and
agriculture are permitted in the Waterfront Greenway. The Natural Core Areas and Natural
Linkages Areas are located within the Oak Ridges Moraine area.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
43
Agricultural areas also represent an important component of the municipal structure and are a
key component of the m economy. Prime agricultural areas, as designated by the
The open space system between Courtice and Bowmanville and the prime agricultural areas
between Bowmanville and Newcastle also function as urban separators among the three larger
urban communities. The protection of the natural environment and of agricultural areas is a
significant factor in achieving sustainable growth. As discussed Section 1.2, one of the main
priorities for the residents of Clarington is to protect the local and provincial natural heritage
system while limiting growth mostly to the existing urban areas.
3.1.1 Watershed Planning
Watershed planning is currently recognized as one of the most effective mechanisms for the
protection, management and enhancement of the natural environment. It uses a holistic
heritage system, including
hydrological resources (groundwater and surface water), terrestrial resources (wildlife habitat
and habitat connectivity), aquatic resources and habitat (e.g. fish, streams, wetlands), and the
inter-relationships that exist between these resources. Watershed plans are also locally based
and therefore reflect, and are responsive to, the unique conditions including human land uses
that exist within each watershed.
Both the Durham Region and the Clarington Official Plans include policies that recognize the
importance of watershed planning to the protection and wise management of natural heritage
resources, and support the preparation of multi-stakeholder watershed planning studies. In
partnership, the Conservation Authorities, the Region of Durham and the Municipality of
Clarington and other watershed municipalities, have coordinated the preparation of watershed
plans for the majority of the watercourses within Clarington. The information from the
Watershed Plans will be used to update the Natural Heritage information found on Schedules C
& D of the Official Plan. The refinement of the existing Natural Heritage System may have
implications on the amount of land available not only for residential but also employment
growth.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
44
Boundary Road
Burketon
Concession Rd 10
Figure 3.1
Regional Rd 20
35
Natural Heritage
Concession Rd 9
115
Enfield
& Open Space System
Wilcox Road
Haydon
Concession Rd 8
Skelding Road
Regional Rd 3
Legend
Enniskillen
Local Road
Thertell Road
Arterial Road
Tyrone
Concession Rd 7
Concession Rd 8
Highway
Proposed 407 Link
Leskard
Solina
Clarington Municipal Boundary
Ganaraska Road
Concession Rd 7
Urban Boundary
Kendal
Kirby
Final Built Boundary
Mitchell
Major Waterbody
Hampton
Corners
on Road
Taunt
Tyler Street
Hamlet
Concession Rd 6
Settlement Area
Orono
Natural Heritage System
Concession Rd 4
Oak Ridges Moraine
Pebblestone Road
Concession Rd 5
Greenbelt - Protected Countryside
Open Space System
Bowmanville
Environmental Protection
Nash Road
Concession Rd 4
35/115
Green Space
Courtice
Waterfront Greenway
Concession Street E
Maple
Bloor Street
Grove
Newcastle
**The source of all data is the Municipality of Clarington**
Village
Newtonville
Baseline Road
Baseline Road E
Regional Highway 2
401 Brownsville
Concession Rd 1
Wilmot
1 : 100,000
Creek
01,5003,0004,500
Map Created By: SFG
Checked By: EC
Date Created: May 25, 2009
Date Modified: Novemeber 12, 2009
Lake Ontario
File Path: I:\\GIS\\091696 - Clarington\\
Mapping\\Working\\Natural
Heritage System.mxd
3.2 Water and Wastewater Servicing Capacity Constraints and
Opportunities
The capacity of water supply and sewage treatment plants is an important consideration in
support growth, through the provision of additional treatment capacity and the expansion of
existing facilities, or the construction of new facilities, involve large capital expenditures, and
require long timelines to plan, design and construct.
Over the short term, all of the treatment facilities servicing the urban communities in
Clarington have capacity to support growth
The Region of Durham is undertaking an infrastructure and fiscal analysis that will
examine in detail the servicing requirements associated with the implementation of
ROPA 128
There may be constraints on the local availability of trunk watermain and sewer
infrastructure to service growth and intensification in specific locations
Only 10% of the vacant employment lands in Clarington are serviced by both
municipal water and sanitary sewer
Within Clarington the provision and operation of all water supply and sanitary sewage
treatment infrastructure is the responsibility of the Region of Durham. The water supply
infrastructure includes water supply plants, ground water wells, reservoirs/storage tanks and a
distribution system of watermains and pumping stations. The sanitary sewage infrastructure
consists of a system of gravity sewers, pumping stations and forcemains used to collect and
convey sewage and wastewater to sewage treatment plants.
The major urban areas of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle are serviced by municipal water
supply and sanitary sewage systems. These systems depend on Lake Ontario as the source for
raw water and the receiving body for treated wastewater. The communities of Newtonville and
Orono also have municipal water supply systems, but rely on private systems to treat and
manage wastewater. The Orono water system is supplied by several groundwater wells, while
the Newtonville system is supplied through a connection to the Newcastle water distribution
system.
To date, planning for the provision of appropriate capacity at each of the water supply and
sewage treatment plants has been completed on the basis of supporting the target populations
set out for each community in the existing Clarington Official Plan. In this regard, each of the
facilities servicing the urban communities in Clarington has some capacity available to support
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
46
growth in the short-term. Additionally, the Region of Durham Capital Budget Forecasts and
Development Charge By-law Background Studies identify a number of capacity expansions
projects in Clarington by 2021.
Table 3.1 below presents a brief overview of:
The extent to which the existing population utilizes the capacity provided by the water
supply and sewage treatment plants as they are currently configured.
The estimated additional population that could be supported by the available capacity not
currently being utilized. These estimates are based on the use of per-capita rates that
represent the expected quantity of additional water demand and sewage flow that each
new member of the population would generate. The per-capita flows used include the
residential, commercial and industrial flows expected to be associated with each person.
Any planned capacity increases documented in the Region of Durham Four Year Capital
Budget Forecast (2009) and the Durham Region Development Charge By-law Background
Study (2008).
The estimated total population that could be supported after the currently planned
capacity increase is implemented. These figures are based on the existing flows and
existing populations as well and the use of per-capita flow rates to determine how much
population can be supported by the total expanded capacity above and beyond the portion
of the capacity that is utilized by the flows produced by the existing population.
Table 3.1: Water Supply and Sewage Treatment
Bowmanville
Water Supply Sewage Treatment
Plant Bowmanville Water Supply Plant Port Darlington Water Pollution Control
Plant
Capacity 52% of current capacity. 89% of current capacity
1
Utilization
Additional 19,00029,000 additional people 3,0004,000 additional people supported
2
Population supported by the current plant. by the current plant.
Proposed Increase capacity by 33% allowing Increase capacity by 100% allowing a total
3
Expansion a total population of 73,000population of 67,000 75,000 people to be
93,000 people to be supported. supported.
Remarks In the fullness of time it is expected that
some sanitary flows from west Bowmanville
will be directed to the Courtice Water
Pollution Control Plant
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
47
Courtice
Water Supply Sewage Treatment
Plant Oshawa Water Supply Plant & Courtice Water Pollution Control Plant &
Whitby Water Supply Plant Harmony Creek Water Pollution Control
Plant (Oshawa)
Capacity 74% of current capacity. 61% of current capacity.
1
Utilization
Additional 79,00094,000 additional people 80,000100,000 additional people
2
Population supported by the current plants, supported by the current plants in the
within the entire Whitby, Oshawa, entire Oshawa, Courtice service area.
Courtice service area.
Proposed Increase total capacity by 40% No plans for expansion of treatment
3
Expansion through an expansion at the capacity.
Whitby WSP. Allowing at total
population of 480,000521,000 to
be supported.
Remarks All figures above address the entire All figures above address the entire Oshawa
Whitby, Oshawa and Courtice and Courtice service area. Only a share of
service area. Only a share of available capacity will be allocated to
available capacity will be allocated Courtice.
to Courtice.
Newcastle/Newtonville
Water Supply Sewage Treatment
Plant Newcastle Water Supply Plant Newcastle (Wilmot) Water Pollution
Control Plant
Capacity 74% of current capacity. 64% of current capacity.
1
Utilization
Additional Approximately 3,000 additional Approximately 3,0004,500 additional
2
Population people supported by the current people supported by the current plant.
plant.
Proposed Increase capacity by 100% allowing Increase capacity by 100% allowing a total
3
Expansion a total population of population of 23,00025,000 people.
approximately 23,000 people to be
supported jointly in Newcastle and
Newtonville.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
48
Orono
Water Supply Sewage Treatment
Plant Orono Water Supply Plant No municipal sewage treatment facilities.
Capacity 62% of current capacity. n/a
1
Utilization
Additional Approximately 1,000 people n/a
2
Population supported by the current plant.
Proposed No plans for expansion of supply or n/a
3
Expansion treatment capacity.
Remarks Supplied by ground water rather Septic loadings
than Lake Ontario surface water.
Notes in the Table:
1.Capacity utilization based on 5-year historic maximum of maximum day flow for water supply and 5-year historic
maximum of average day flow for sanitary sewage.
2.Low-end of population range based on the conservative (higher) benchmark per-capita flow rates that have
historically been used for planning purposes. High-end of population range based on maximum of 5-year historic
per capita rates as calculated using historic flow and population data.
3.Size of expansion expressed as a percentage of existing capacity (e.g. 100% increase indicates doubling of existing
capacity, 33% increase indicated increasing capacity by one-third of existing).
The population figures provided above include ranges in order to reflect potential variability in
the per-capita water consumption and sanitary sewage generation rates associated with
population growth. Lower per-capita rates that would allow larger overall populations to be
supported could result from:
Improved quality of water distribution and sanitary sewage collection infrastructure
which reduces the quantity of water lost through leakage and reduces the volume of
groundwater that infiltrates into the sanitary sewage system.
Movements towards conservation and water reuse by residential and industrial users
that has the potential to reduce overall water use and sewage flows.
Higher per-capita rates that would allow smaller overall populations to be supported could
result from:
A change in the jobs-to-population ratio that would result in a greater number of jobs
relative to population either within Clarington as a whole or a specific community.
A shift in the employment growth patterns between communities such that the number
of jobs relative to population changed in a particular community. An example would be
an increased employment growth in Courtice relative to the rate of population growth.
The introduction of industrial uses with intensive water requirements.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
49
A consumption pattern that does not favour water conservation and reuse measures.
In addition to the high-level commentary provided here the Region of Durham is presently
undertaking an Infrastructure and Fiscal Analysis Impact Study that will examine in detail the
servicing requirements associated with implementation of the Growing Durham Plan. This
study will:
Examine the servicing needs for each community on a block-by-block level to identify
any necessary infrastructure upgrades to accommodate the proposed intensification
and growth.
Provide timelines and define funding mechanisms for implementing the necessary
infrastructure improvements.
Beyond the major treatment plant level considerations discussed above, it is important to note
that local constraints in the trunk and local elements of the water distribution and the sanitary
sewage collection systems may impose localized constraints on growth and/or intensification in
particular geographic areas. As a result, there may be a need for the Region of Durham to
consider expanding or reinforcing infrastructure in key locations where it is efficient to do so.
Based on the forecasted population growth in the Region of Durham, a new trunk sanitary
sewer is required to convey sanitary sewage flows from the communities in Brooklin, Oshawa
and Courtice to the Courtice Water Pollution Control Plant (WPCP). The Regional Municipality
of Durham completed a Class Environmental Assessment in 2011 to identify the preferred route
for the trunk sanitary sewer. The preferred route is illustrated on the figure below. The
estimated size of the trunk sanitary sewer ranges from 1350mm to 2100mm diameter. The
undeveloped lands (future urban residential lands and employment lands) west of Courtice
Road in the vicinity of Trulls Road, north and south of Bloor Street, are within the anticipated
Courtice WPCP sewer-shed. In addition, lands east of Courtice Road, including the proposed
urban boundary expansion located north of Bloor Street, also fall inside the sewer shed.
Detailed design work for the trunk sanitary sewer is expected to be completed in 2012. It is
anticipated that the trunk will be constructed to the intersection of Courtice Road and Baseline
Road in or by the end of 2013 with further extension to the corner of Trulls Road and Baseline
Road by the end of 2015. Future extensions of the trunk sanitary sewer will most likely be
driven by development demand.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
50
Figure 3.2: Proposed Courtice Sanitary Sewer
Source: GENIVAR. Courtice Trunk Sanitary Sewer Class Environmental Assessment Study, 2011.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
51
Regarding the employment lands, a key constraint of these lands in Clarington is the servicing
status. Only around 56 hectares of vacant employment lands in Clarington are serviced by
both municipal water and sanitary sewer, which represents less than 10% of the vacant
employment land supply. Roughly 80 hectares of employment lands are serviced only by
municipal water this includes all the vacant employment lands in the Newcastle Employment
Area (28.2 hectares), close to 34 hectares in Bowmanville and only about 19 hectares in
Courtice. Table 3.2 shows the vacant employment lands by servicing status. According to the
Economic Base and Employment Lands Discussion Paper, the supply of serviced vacant
employment lands is insufficient to support forecasted growth, and provide for market choice.
The development potential of the employment areas in Clarington in terms of types of uses and
density is limited by lack of full servicing. The report concludes that
development and investment attraction efforts are being hampered by a low supply of serviced
employment land.
Table 3.2 Gross Hectares of Vacant Employment Lands by Servicing Status
Municipal
Water Municipal Municipal No
and Water Sewer Municipal
Community Sewer Only Only Servicing Total
Newcastle 0 28.2 0 0 28.2
Bowmanville 55.8 33.6 0 114.8 204.2
Courtice 0 17.9 5.4 416.3 439.6
Total 55.8 79.7 5.4 531.1 672.0
Source: Municipality of Clarington, EDP Consulting
In sum, wastewater servicing expansions are needed to service population and employment
growth, especially to support the intensification, population and employment targets mandated
by ROPA 128. Improvements in the wastewater and water services will also ensure the timely
development of the employment lands, particularly of the Energy Business Park in Courtice and
the proposed Technology Business Park in Bowmanville. In addition, as stated in the
Intensification Discussion Paper, future development along the Regional Corridors, including
Courtice Road, Highway 2 and Bloor Street, will require the construction of new water supply,
sanitary sewer and storm water infrastructure to support growth.
3.3 Regional and Interregional Transit & Transportation
The following sub-
initiatives and studies.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
52
3.3.1 Existing Transportation System
The transportation network within Clarington facilitates the movement of people and goods
locally within the municipality and provides connections to areas beyond the municipal
commute to locations of work outside of Clarington makes the transportation network and its
connections key element
Road Network Clarington transportation system is
Currently, the Clarington transportation system primarily oriented towards vehicular
is primarily oriented towards vehicular traffic traffic with a heavy focus on the use
of private automobiles.
travelling on public roadways with a heavy
focus on the use of private automobiles to
support personal mobility and the use of trucks
to support goods movement. Under a variety of jurisdictions the functional hierarchy of roads
within the Clarington transportation system includes freeways as well as arterial, collector and
local roads. The arterial roads form a large scale grid, with the internal network of collectors
and local roads laid out on a curvilinear pattern. While the grid pattern provides for an efficient
network to move people and good through the communities, the internal curvilinear system of
local and collector roads poses some challenges (e.g. ability to serve with transit and active
transportation).
Freeways are controlled access roads under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Transportation.
Freeways within Clarington carry large volumes of inter-regional and regional traffic and form a
key east-west link including both Highway 401 and the future Highway 407. Although classified
as an arterial road rather than a freeway, it is noted that Highway 35/115 provides a key north-
south link within the municipality and will be the eastern end for the future 407 East extension.
Arterial Roads of various categories are designated by the Region of Durham and are under the
jurisdiction of Province, Region of Durham or the Municipality. The primary purpose of arterial
roads is to efficiently move large volumes of traffic at moderate to high speeds over longer
distances while limiting private access and facilitating transit operation. Regional Highway 2 is
an important arterial corridor that traverses the municipality east-west along the central areas
and historical downtowns of Courtice, Bowmanville and Newcastle Village. The arterial road
network also includes the Bloor Street and Courtice Road in Courtice; Regional Road 57 and
Liberty Street in Bowmanville; Miller/North Street in Newcastle; and, Tayler Street/Taunton
Road to the north of the three larger urban areas.
Collector Roads are designated by and fall under the jurisdiction of the Municipality and are
intended for the purpose of moving moderate volumes of traffic over short distances within a
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
53
localized area. The primary purpose of such roads is collecting and distributing moderate
volumes of traffic among connected local roads, arterial roads and major traffic
generators/destinations. Collector roads play a key role in facilitating local transit routes and
provide opportunities to develop the infrastructure necessary to support active transportation
modes such as walking and cycling.
Local Roads carry relatively low traffic volumes and facilitate access to individual adjacent
properties. Local roads also provide routes and/or opportunities for cycling and walking.
Active Transportation Network
The majority of the existing urban roadway system has pedestrian sidewalks which are
generally considered a public amenity within a road allowance, providing opportunities for
recreational mobility as well as helping facilitate access to localized retail and commercial areas
such as the historic downtown cores of Clarington. Recently the development of trails and
ed; however, the system of trails
and pathways is still in its infancy and geared primarily towards use for recreational purposes.
If the active transportation network matures through a process that focuses on developing key
linkages and integrating active transportation facilities into municipal road right-of-ways (where
appropriate) a system with improved connectivity will begin to evolve. Such a system would
provide opportunities for more utilitarian uses such as home to work or home to school trips by
walking or cycling.
Local Transit Systems
Local transit in Clarington is provided in part by
Durham Region Transit (DRT) with conventional
bus routes along the major arterial road network
and some collector/local roads. The Highway 2
transit in Courtice, with GO Transit bus and
Durham Region Transit bus service provided.
Figure 3.3 shows the location of the local and regional transit systems.
Transit in Courtice is limited to the central area, which is serviced by three routes that form part
of the larger Oshawa area transit network. Only the 402 King route, which runs along Highway 2
(Courtice Main Street Corridor), provides full service on weekdays and reduced service on
weekends and holidays. The other two routes (421 Townline route and 922 Bloor Victoria
route) provide limited service on weekdays and during rush hours.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
54
The communities of Bowmanville, Newcastle and Orono are serviced by four DRT routes. At
present these routes do not interconnect with other DRT routes servicing Courtice and other
communities to the west, although these routes do overlap with the GO Transit bus service
provided in the Highway 2 corridor area of Bowmanville. Operating primarily on arterial and
collector roads, two routes, the 501 and 502 provide service exclusively within Bowmanville.
Route 503 provides service between the Highway 2 corridor in Bowmanville and the community
of Wilmot Creek twice a day (each direction), three days a week. Route 504 runs three days a
week during peak AM and PM hours along a looped route that begins and terminates along the
Highway 2 (King Street) corridor in Bowmanville.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
55
Figure 3.3
Municipality Transit Network
Orono
Legend
~
Proposed GO Stations
Proposed GO Rail
CN Rail
Local Road
Arterial Road
Highway
Proposed 407 Link
GO Bus Route
Transit Network (Durham Region)
Clarington Municipal Boundary
G
H
Urban Boundary
35/115
Courtice
Major Waterbody
Bowmanville
~
Newcastle
~
**The source of all data is the Municipality of Clarington**
401
1 : 60,000
01,0002,0003,000
Map Created By: JJA
Checked By: EC
Lake Ontario
Date Created: 110509
Date Modified: 020812
File Path: I:\\GIS\\091696 - Clarington\\
Mapping\\Working\\Finals_111209\\
Transit Map.mxd
Regional Transit Systems
GO transit rail service is provided in Region of Durham at four stations located in Pickering,
Ajax, Whitby and Oshawa. Clarington currently does not have regional rail service and the
nearest transit hub where rail service can be accessed, in the form of VIA rail and GO Transit, at
the Oshawa VIA/GO Station south of Bloor Street, between Thickson Road and Stevenson Road.
Regional transit opportunities are currently provided by the GO Transit Highway 2 bus service
which runs along the Highway 2 corridor between Newcastle and Oshawa with varying
frequency, anywhere from every 10 minutes during peak times (AM and PM) to 1 hour between
the AM and PM Peaks. Additionally, park and ride service is available between Bowmanville
and the Oshawa GO Train Station in the form of an express bus that runs along the 401 during
the AM and PM peak hours.
Significant investments in transit infrastructure will be needed in order to support growth in
Clarington. The Region may need to expand existing transit services into greenfield Areas.
Similarly, compact and denser growth in the built-up area, particularly in regional centres and
corridors, will require the provision of a range of transportation choices, including frequent
transit service, expanded active transportation network and improvements in the existing road
network. Section 3.3.2 includes future initiatives that will help to expand the local transit
infrastructure and will support the development of a more sustainable transportation system in
Clarington.
3.3.2 Future Initiatives and Studies
Clarington requires important improvements to its local, Regional and inter-regional
transportation and transit system to support projected population and employment growth.
Extension of GO rail service to Bowmanville and
Courtice, improvements to the Highway 2 corridor
Two new GO stations have been
for regional and GO transit buses are of particular
proposed for Clarington, which
importance. The provision of efficient and reliable
will provide for better
transit service along the Regional Corridors that are
connectivity with the rest of the
targeted for growth (Highway 2, Courtice Road and
GTA and also provide local
Bloor Street) is pivotal in the development of a
opportunities for transit-
sustainable Clarington. Over the long term it would
oriented development
be expected that transit services would be extended
The expansion of Highway 407
along the Corridors to service new development.
and the link between Highways
Additionally, the Region and the Municipality need
401 and 407 will influence the
to offer transportation options that encourage
shape of growth and also help
walking and cycling across the urban settlement
to improve regional connectivity
areas.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
57
Largely consistent with the policy framework discussed in Section 2, the provincial government
is planning to implement several major transportation-related infrastructure projects that will
expand the existing transportation system and increase travel opportunities within Clarington.
Additionally, the Region of Durham is undertaking several studies to further explore and plan
for the future development of local transit infrastructure and consideration of the potential of
Transit Demand Management (TDM). Initiatives that will help to expand the transportation and
transit system in Clarington are discussed below:
Highway 407 and 407 Link
The expansion of Highway 407 and the link between Highways 401 and 407 will represent an
important infrastructure endeavor that will shape the structure of the Municipality. The
main urban areas, which will complement the transportation service provided by Highway 401.
In addition, the proposed link between Highway 401 and the planned Highway 407, east of
ctions and the
potential to accommodate rapid transit. The link will also significantly increase access for
employment lands in Courtice which will increase the market attractiveness and demand for
those lands. The proposed highway corridor and the interchanges will require a detailed review
of its impact on the Regional and local road network.
GO Transit Expansion
Extension of the GO rail service to Courtice and Bowmanville are of particular importance in the
creation of a sustainable Clarington. The need to provide improved inter-regional transit service
to Clarington via an easterly extension of the GO Transit rail system was identified as a
component of the plan put forward in The Big Move. GO Transit and Metrolinx are planning to
expand GO rail services by twinning approximately 25 kilometres of the existing Canadian
Pacific Railway (CPR) line from the Town of Whitby to the Municipality of Clarington. The
project will also include the development of a maintenance facility yard in the Town of Whitby,
four GO stations, one future potential GO station and a train layover facility within the
Municipality of Clarington. The Oshawa to Bowmanville Go Train Service Expansion and
Maintenance Facility Environmental Assessment (EA) was completed in early 2011 with the
following objectives:
Identify an appropriate crossing point to transition GO rail service from the CNR corridor
to the CPR corridor, which was identified by previous feasibility studies as the preferred
corridor;
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
58
Select preferred station locations to meet community needs with candidate station
locations in the vicinity of Courtice Road in Courtice and Martin Road in Bowmanville;
and,
Assess impact of implementation and identify required mitigation measures.
The Ministry of the Environment gave the proponents a notice to proceed with this GO rail
expansion project. Planned GO stations at Bowmanville and Courtice will provide better
connections between Clarington and the rest of the Greater Toronto Area. The operational
expected within the next five years and the
first phase of expansion will provide AM and PM peak service to Bowmanville with the ultimate
plan to have all day service when the demand is created. The areas in the vicinity of the
planned GO stations could have opportunities for intensification and the location of
pedestrian/transit friendly development.
One station is proposed to be located in Bowmanville, south of Highway 2, west of Martin Road,
and will be located in close proximity to the West Town Centre. The Town Centre has a range
the vicinity of this site are vacant and identified to have potential for intensification while
others already have plans of subdivision. The future GO Station in Courtice is proposed to be
located south of Bloor Street, east of Trulls Road, west of Courtice Road, and north of the CPR,
within the employment area. There is a significant amount of vacant employment area between
Bloor Street and Baseline Road. The location of this station in the middle of the employment
area may stimulate the development of these lands. A concerted effort will likely be required
to develop strong transportation links between a GO station located in the employment area
and the existing community as well as the proposed intensification centres and corridors to the
north.
In addition, a train layover facility is also being proposed in Courtice, south of Baseline Road,
east of Solina Road, west of Rundle Road, and south of the CPO line. Figure 3.3 (refer back)
shows the location of the Region of Durham Transit routes, the location of the future GO
Stations and the proposed Highway 407 in Clarington. Figures 3.4a, 3.4b and 3.4c shows the
site design concept for the proposed stations in Courtice and Bowmanville as well as the
layover facility.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
59
Figure 3.4a: Proposed Courtice Road GO Station (Darlington GO Station)
Figure 3.4b: Proposed Martin Road GO Station (Bowmanville GO Station)
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
60
Figure 3.4c: Proposed Courtice Layover Facility Site
c
Long-Term Transit Strategy
In March 2010 the Region completed a Long-Term Transit Strategy (LTSS) with a vision to
provide an adaptive, safe, reliable, accessible, desirable transit system that shapes and
connects the Region of Durham and beyond in an economically and environmentally
sustainable manner. The purpose of the LTTS is to develop a long-term regional transit strategy
that considers multi-modal transportation alternatives and to recommend strategies for
achieving a sustainable transportation system that is focused on rapid transit.
Some of the key goals of the LTTS include:
Improving transit accessibility by making transit accessible (within a 5 minute walk) for the
residents and accessible for persons with special needs;
Improving connections and partnerships with GO transit and neighbouring transit services;
Providing local and express routes that integrate the Region;
Delivering transit service that is competitive with the car as a mode of transportation;
Improving off-peak service, especially evening and weekend service; and,
Delivering accessible facilities and vehicles to meet the need of people with dissabilities.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
61
A set of alternative solutions were developed and evaluated. Based on the analysis, the project
alternative for the Region of Durham Long Term Regional Rapid Transit Network for 2031 and
beyond. The preferred alternative provides a comprehensive network of rapid transit service in
the Region and includes the following recommendations:
Light Rapid Transit (LRT) with 3-5 min peak service on Highway 2, from the Future Transit
Terminal in the Toronto/Durham border to Courtice Road in Clarington, on Simcoe Street
(Oshawa) and Taunton Road (from Pickering to Oshawa);
Recommends the Region incorporates the Regional Transit Network Beyond 2031 into the
Regional Official Plan, and begin to protect for future rapid transit corridors accordingly;
Enhanced Conventional (Priority) Transit (10 min peak service) on the following roads:
Courtice Road; Highway 2 (between Courtice Road and Downtown Newcastle); Bloor
Street; Pebblestone Road; and, between the proposed Courtice GO station and the OPG;
Includes the protection of five additional corridors with potential to accommodate demand
for LRT over time, including Highway 2 between Courtice Road and Bowmanville; and,
Establishes Highway 2 corridor as the highest priority rapid transit corridor in the network.
Figure 3.5 shows an excerpt of the Recommended Regional Road Transit Network Beyond 2031
with a focus on Clarington.
In addition the LTTS included a Transit Oriented Development (TOD) Strategy which provides
recommendations for establishing a more transit supportive urban form. The TOD Strategy
included policy recommendations to be included in the Area Municipal and Regional Official
Plans which help to support TOD in the Region.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
62
Figure 3.5: Recommended Regional Road Transit Network Beyond 2031 (Clarington)
Source: HDR|iTrans. Regional Municipality of Durham Long Term Transit Strategy Final Report, March, 2011.
Transportation Demand Management Study
TDM strategies are designed to decrease single occupant vehicle trips by presenting travelers
with multi-modal and alternative choices such as ride-sharing, bicycling, walking, teleworking or
taking transit. Region of Durham Transit has prepared a paper titled: Best Practices to Support
Transportation Demand Management (May 2009) to identify strategies that will help achieve
these ends and improve the transit system for the Region and its constituent municipalities.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
63
3.4 Community Facilities
This section briefly considers community facilities such as educational, health care, child care,
seniors services, recreational and cultural services within Clarington and their role in supporting
growth. As communities grow, so too does the demand for a variety of services and facilities
which are integral to the well-being of residents. Parks, swimming pools, arenas, schools and
health care facilities have the potential to directly impact and improve quality of life. However,
with the exception of municipal owned facilities, such as parks and arenas, the provision of
most community facilities are contemplated through processes which are external to the land
use planning framework. For example, school boards make decisions on where and when to
build new schools. However, given the broader legislative context discussed earlier in this
Paper, there is a need to link growth objectives with the allocation of all types of community
facilities. Generally, the direction provided by the Region (and supported by the Province
through Places to Grow) is to direct major community facilities to Regional and Local Centres.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
64
Section 3 Conclusions
The natural heritage system, servicing, including water supply and wastewater treatment
and the transportation/transit network have an important role in determining where,
how and when growth can be directed over time in each of the communities in
Clarington:
The natural heritage system is a significant permanent component of the municipal
;
The open space system and the agricultural areas function as desirable urban
separators between the three main communities;
There are a number of planned infrastructure improvements which have the potential
to drive future growth opportunities in Clarington, including 407 extension, 401-407
link, GO service and treatment plant expansions;
Over the short term, all of the treatment facilities servicing the urban communities in
Clarington have some capacity to support additional growth;
The Region of Durham is undertaking an Infrastructure and Fiscal Analysis that will
examine in detail servicing requirements associated with implementation of ROPA
128;
One of main obstacles to future growth is the availability of trunk watermain and
sewer infrastructure to service growth and intensification in particular areas;
Only around 10% of the vacant employment lands in Clarington are serviced by both
municipal water and sanitary sewer;
Based on the analysis of water and wastewater servicing, there appears to be
insufficient resource capacity to support intensification along the major corridors,
regional centres and to support Greenfield development;
Transit and transportation systems play a significant role in modeling the municipal
growth and creating a sustainable community;
Currently, the Clarington transportation system is primarily oriented towards vehicular
traffic travelling on public roadways with a heavy focus on the use of private
automobiles to support personal mobility and the use of trucks to support goods
movement;
The majority of the existing urban roadway system has pedestrian sidewalks; the
system of trails and pathways is limited and geared primarily towards use for
recreational purposes;
Clarington has limited transit service, with no current regional rail service. However,
two GO stations have been proposed in the municipality, which will provide better
connection to the rest of the GTA and major employment areas as well as local
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
65
Section 3 Conclusions (continued)
The Region completed a Long-Term Transit Strategy with a vision to provide an
adaptive, safe, reliable, accessible, desirable transit system and recommends the
implementation of Light Rapid Transit in Courtice and enhanced traditional transit
service along the main corridors in Courtice, Bowmanville and Newcastle;
The expansion of Highway 407 and the link between Highways 401 and 407 will
represent an important element that will shape the structure of the Municipality.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
66
Section 4
Urban Structure & Local
Growth Trends
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
67
4 URBAN STRUCTURE & LOCAL GROWTH TRENDS
An analysis of urban structure, historic population and housing growth, trends in
urban development, educational attainment, employment base and commercial land supply
was undertaken to understand key characteristics of the Municipality. The following sections
and how to direct and manage its projected growth.
4.1 Urban Structure
2
Clarington has a large land area (approximately 611 km) and contains large expanses of
agricultural and rural uses, including four urban communities and 13 hamlets:
Urban Communities: Bowmanville, Courtice, Newcastle/Wilmot Creek and Orono.
Hamlets: Brownsville, Newtonville, Mitchell Corners, Hampton, Solina, Kirby, Kendal,
Enniskillen, Haydon, Tyrone, Enfield, and Burketon.
The three main urban communities of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle Village are located
to the south of the municipality. Orono, a smaller settlement area, is located to the north of
Newcastle Village, adjacent to Highway 35/115. The urban settlement areas are situated along
Highway 401, east of Oshawa. The majority of development is located north of the 401 corridor
with pockets of waterfront development south of the 401 on Lake Ontario. Figure 4.1 illustrates
the locations of the m.
The Regional Urban Structure as depicted in the Regional Official Plan includes the communities
of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle as part of the Lake Ontario Shoreline Urban Areas.
central anchor, while
Bowmanvil The following land use
designations, as identified in the Regional Official Plan, form the urban structure of urban
settlement areas in the municipality:
Regional Centres: Are planned to be the main concentrations of activities and highest
densities. Regional Centres include the future Courtice Town Centre, Bowmanville West
and East Town Centre and Downtown Newcastle.
Courtice Town Centre: A Secondary Plan for the redevelopment of the Courtice Main
o
Street and the Town Centre is in the process of being completed. The plan envisions
the area as a mix-use, higher density, pedestrian oriented and compact area. The
Town Centre is currently mainly vacant.
Bowmanville West Town Centre: The planned function is to act as a mixed-use
o
centre, accommodating shopping needs in a more traditional, pedestrian friendly
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
68
built form. Currently, the area is only partially built out and continues to grow and
develop. It is the principal transit hub within Clarington and provides access to a
variety of transportation modes. Over the long term, the area is proposed to be
serviced with GO rail and may be serviced with Regional Light Rapid Transit. The
development of this area is presently regulated by the Bowmanville West Town
Centre Secondary Plan.
Bowmanville East Town Centre: Includes the Historic Downtown, the central King
o
Street Spine and the Bowmanville Mall and Environs. These areas include a mix of
institutional, cultural, mall shops, institutional, professional offices and restaurants
and residential uses. The development of this area is presently regulated by the
Bowmanville East Town Centre Secondary Plan.
Newcastle Village Centre: Newcastle Village Centre (Downtown) is characterized by
o
its historic buildings, heritage character and specialty stores and shops. The area is
covered by the Newcastle Village Centre Secondary Plan, which identifies a range of
uses for the area.
Regional Corridors: These are also planned to be developed with higher densities, mixed-
use area and supporting higher order transit services and pedestrian oriented
development. As mentioned in section 2, the amended Region of Durham Official Plan
identifies Courtice Main Street (Highway 2 through Courtice), Courtice Road, Bloor Street
and King Street (Highway 2 through Bowmanville). Courtice Main Street is partially
developed and planned to be redeveloped into a mix-use, compact and pedestrian
oriented corridor. King Street (between Mearns Avenue and Bennet Road), Courtice Road
and Bloor Street Corridors are mostly undeveloped.
Living Areas: Are intended primarily for residential housing and include supporting
commercial, employment, institutional, retail and public/recreational uses.
Employment Areas: Are planned as the primary locations for industrial, manufacturing,
warehousing, research and development, and business parks.
Major Open Space Areas: Include lands where development is restricted to ensure
environmental protection and recreational opportunities.
Waterfront Places: There are two designated Waterfront Places in Clarington (Port
Darlington and Port of Newcastle) located on the shore of Lake Ontario. Generally, these
Waterfront Places are separated -up areas and are better
described as waterfront areas with a recreational focus and associated residential.
Clarington Official Plan provides a more detailed layer of land use designations within the
Settlement Areas, including the following main land uses: Residential Uses (Urban Residential,
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
69
Future Urban Residential, Medium Density Residential), Town Centre, Highway Commercial,
Employment Uses (Prestige Employment, Light Industrial, General Industrial, Business Park),
Utility, Environmental Protection Area, Green Space, Waterfront Greenway, and Community
Park, among other uses.
Figure 4.1 shows the location of the Centres, Corridors and Waterfront Places. A detailed
analysis of the Regional Centres and Corridors and their opportunities and constrains for
growth is included in Section 4 of the Intensification Discussion Paper.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
70
Leskard
Solina
d 6
sion R
nces
Co
Concession Rd 7
Kirby
Figure 4.1
Urban Structure Map
Mitchell
Corners
Hampton
d
n Roa
Taunto
Legend
Tyler Street
~
Proposed GO Stations
Orono
#
Waterfront Places
Local Road
Regional Road
Highway
Proposed 407 Link
Concession Rd 4
Pebblestone Road
Regional Corridor
Clarington Municipal Boundary
Urban Boundary
Built Boundary
ROPA 128 Urban Boudary
Bowmanville
Expansion
Town/Village Centre
Nash Road
G
H
Aggregate Extraction
35/115
Employment Areas
Living Areas
Courtice
Natural Environment Areas*
Waterfront Greenway
Hamlet
Concession Street E
Maple
Bloor Street
Utility
oncession Rd 3
C
Grove
Major Waterbody
~
Newcastle
~
Baseline Road
Baseline Road E
401
#
Wilmot
*Natural environment areas consist of environmental protection
Creek and green space designations*
#
**The source of all data is the Municipality of Clarington**
1 : 60,000 Map Created By: JJA
Lake Ontario
Checked By: EC
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Date Modified: 020812
File Path: I:\\GIS\\091696 - Clarington\\Mapping\\Working\\
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4.2 Local Population and Housing Trends
The following section reviews population, housing growth, urban development, and land supply
trends for Clarington and for each of the three urban communities of Bowmanville, Courtice
and Newcastle and the rural area. A brief review of the historical population trends by major
age group is also provided.
4.2.1 Population Growth
Figure 4.2
The Municipality of Clarington has
growth from 1986.
experienced rapid population
approximately 63,000 in 1996 and approximately
growth in the last decade
80,900 in 2006, an increase of 28%. Bowmanville
is the largest urban centre, with a population of 31,600 in 2006. Courtice and Newcastle Village
are the second and third urban concentrations with 23,200 and 8,900 residents in 2006
respectively. The hamlet and rural population is estimated at 17,200 people. The communities
of Bowmanville and Courtice have an urban character and Newcastle Village and Orono have a
historic village character. The remainder of the municipality is more rural in nature, with
smaller hamlets and settlement areas.
Figure 4.2: Clarington Historic Population Growth
100,000
90,000
87,930
80,000
80,900
72,600
70,000
63,000
60,000
51,400
50,000
40,000
35,400
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
198619911996200120062011
Historic Population
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting, 2010.
Note: Population includes Census under-coverage
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
72
Table 4.1: Percent Population by Age
4.2.2 Age Structure
Clarington, Durham, Ontario
The percentage of the m-19
population has declined from 31.4% in 2001
to 29.6% in 2006, but is still higher than
-54 also
declined between 2001 and 2006 (from
51.36% to 50.6%), while the population in
the 55-74 and 75+ age groups have
increased (13.19% and 3.99% to 15.02% and
4.63%). Table 4.1
population base by age structure compared
to the Region of Durham and the Province of
Ontario.
There are differences among the
communitge distributions when
compared with Clarington as a whole.
very similar to Clarington overall, whereas
Courtice shows a higher proportion in the
younger and working age population.
Newcastle has a higher proportion in the
in the last census period
55+ age group (17%). Figure 4.3
The Municipality has a similar age
summarizes population base by age
structure when compared with the Region
structure for the municipality and its major
of Durham but less proportion of 55 years
communities in 2006.
or older when compared with the
Province of Ontario
Age structure has important implications
The population in Newcastle and the rural
when planning for housing, services and
areas is slightly older than in the rest of
amenities in Clarington, since different age
the Municipality
groups have different needs. A major
increase of the population in the 55-74 and
75+ age groups will bring significant changes to the communities in terms of demand for
housing, social services, transportation, recreation and health care, among other services. With
need to update their official plans, programs and strategies to respond to the demands of the
increasing aging community.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
73
Figure 4.3: Percent Population by Age Clarington vs. Major Communities, 2006
4.2.3 Historic Housing Growth
fast pace in the past 20 years, which is
The m
substantially higher than the Ontario
grew at an annual rate of 4.6% between
average
1986 and 2006, which is substantially higher
Household size has shrunk in Clarington
than the Ontario average (1.7%) and the
and across Ontario
Region of Durham average (3.1%); however,
the growth rate has generally declined
during the later portion of the 20-year
period, from 5,500 units between 1986-
1991 to less than 3,700 from 2001-2006.
In addition, the average household size
declined from 3.07 to 2.87 persons per
unit. This trend is common for Ontario
municipalities including Clarington and is
anticipated to continue due to moderate
growth levels in the 55+ age group (with
smaller household sizes). Table 4.2
illustrates changes in the housing unit
growth in Clarington, the Region of
Durham and Ontario.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
74
Table 4.2: Housing Unit Change, 1986-2006
ClaringtonDurhamOntario
Average
Total Annual Household Total Annual Total Annual
YearHouseholdsGrowthRateSizeHouseholdsGrowthRateHouseholdsGrowthRate
198610,9003.07106,6453,221,730
1991
16,4005,5008.5%2.98136,12529,4805.0%3,638,365416,6352.5%
199620,1003,7004.2%2.98154,10517,9802.5%3,924,510286,1451.5%
200123,2003,1002.9%2.97171,49517,3902.2%294,9001.5%
4,219,410
2006
26,9003,7003.0%2.87194,63923,1442.6%4,554,251334,8411.5%
Change 16,0004.6%-0.2087,9943.1%1,332,5211.7%
1986-2006
Source: Statistics Canada, Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2009
4.2.4 Urban Development Trends
built-up area has rapidly
Density & Historic Development
expanded in the last 20 years
The review of historic residential growth
Low density has been the
trends provides insight into
predominant housing type (single and
development patterns and illustrates how
semi detached homes) in Clarington
the municipality has changed over time. This
Bowmanville continues to be the
analysis also identifies general housing
predominant area of growth,
market trends with respect to housing form
capturing more than half of the
(i.e. type and density) and residential
building permits in the Municipality
construction activity.
Orono and rural areas have
experienced minimal growth
As shown in Figure 4.4, Clarington built-up
area has rapidly expanded in the last 20
years. An analysis of the air photos from
1985 to 2005 shows Clarington rapid urban
growth. In 1985, Bowmanville was the
predominant urban area, while Courtice was
a small community with discontinuous
development pockets. In the subsequent
decades, Courtice, Bowmanville and
Newcastle experienced significant growth.
In Bowmanville and Newcastle, growth was
concentrated around their established urban
cores, while in Courtice growth was more
significant to the north of the community,
filling extensive greenfields lands and connecting the pre-existing development pockets.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
75
Figure 4.4: Evolution of Clarington's Built Up Areas
1985
Bowmanville
$
+
35/115
Courtice
Newcastle
401
401
1:80,000
Lake Ontario
01,0002,0003,0004,000m
1995
Bowmanville
$
+
35/115
Courtice
Newcastle
401
401
Lake Ontario
1:80,000
01,0002,0003,0004,000m
2005
$
+
Bowmanville
35/115
Courtice
Newcastle
401
401
Lake Ontario
1:80,000
01,0002,0003,0004,000m
A review of seven large neighbourhoods in the municipality reveals the predominance of low
density residential developments on large lots. Traditionally, neighbourhoods in Clarington are
car-oriented, mainly single-detached residential dwellings with schools and recreation facilities.
parkettes/neighbourhood parks and transit, these areas are wide-spread, with long walking
distances increasing the dependence on private automobiles. The lack of employment
opportunities in or next to residential areas also limits the ability to work close to home, thus
creating the need to commute to other parts of the municipality or to other municipalities in
the GTA.
The average residential gross density in the analyzed neighbourhoods was 12.8 units per gross
hectare (upnh). An additional review of more recent developments in Courtice and
Bowmanville reveals that medium density developments are also being built in Clarington.
Figure 4.5 illustrates the urban form and the average land use distribution found in the
analyzed neighbourhoods.
In addition, an analysis of the existing gross density in the municipality using 2006 Census data
reveals that the residential densities range from 2 to 20 units per gross hectare (upgh). There
are some concentrations of higher density developments (20 to 40 upgh) in Bowmanville and
Courtice, and a few blocks with density higher than 40 upgh in Downtown Bowmanville. Figure
4.6 shows the average densities in the four urban communities.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
77
Figure 4.5 Example of Typical Build Form in Residential Neighbourhoods in Clarington
Courtice, north of Hwy 2, west of Trulls Road
Bowmanville, east of Liberty Street
Average Gross Density: 12.8 upgh
Average Land Use Distribution:
Land Use Distribution%
Residential68%
Non-Residential 7%
Roads and Sidewalks25%
Total100%
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
78
Figure 4.6: Existing Gross Density in Clarington 2006 Census
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
79
Residential completions and residential building permit activity provides insights on the housing
preferences for low density forms of development:
Residential Completions
as defined by
completions Survey, is the stage at which all the proposed construction work on a dwelling unit
has been performed, although under some circumstances a dwelling may be counted as
completed where up to 10 per cent of the proposed work remains to be done. Over the period
1994-2008, residential completions in the municipality have fluctuated between 400 and 1000
units per year, with an annual average of 693 units. The average unit per year increased during
the period 2002-2006, with 757 units per year. The construction of low-density housing in the
municipality dominated the market during the overall period.
Residential Building Permit Activity
Figure 4.7 summarizes residential building permits by community for new dwellings. Between
1998 and 2008 the municipality averaged 730 residential building permits per year, but it has
experienced a progressive decline in the last 5 years, from about 1,000 units in 2004 to
approximately 600 units in 2008. Between 1998 and 2000 Bowmanville and Courtice had a
closer share of permit activity, and after 2001 Bowmanville has concentrated a larger portion of
the permit activity. Meanwhile, permits in Orono and Hamlets/Rural areas have remained
steady, with one and twelve permits per year in average, respectively. Building permits also
Figure 4.7: Historic Residential Building Permit Activity for Bowmanville, Courtice and
Newcastle 1998-2008
Source: Municipality of Clarington, Building Permit Activity Reports 1998 - 2008
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
80
reflect the propensity for single family homes - during the 2001-2008 time period, 79% of the
building permits were identified as low-density dwellings.
4.2.5 Residential Land Supply
The Provincial Policy Statement requires planning authorities to maintain a minimum 10 years
of land supply designated and available for residential and employment development. As a
consequence, municipalities approve land for future development well in advance of
construction. Where such lands are currently approved for development but as yet un-built,
the character of future growth on these lands has been pre-determined and may proceed to
development as approved regardless of changes to policies for new growth.
Residential land supply includes the following:
Residential development potential through intensification in the existing Built-Up Areas
(within designated urban areas);
Residential development potential on designated greenfield areas (within designated
urban areas); and,
Residential development potential in rural areas.
Figure 4.8 illustrates the relationships between the three components of the land supply and
the types of plans that are captured in the development inventory.
Figure 4.8: Components of the Residential and Employment Land Supply
Inventory
Municipal boundary
Rural Area Not
In-Process Plans*
designated for urban
Severance Applications
development
Draft Plans of
Subdivisions
Conditionally
Approved Consents
Limits of the
Unbuilt lots on
designated
Registered Plans
Urban Area Greenfield Area
settlement area
Unbuilt lots on
Approved Consents
Limits of built-up
Vacant Designated
area (intensification
Lands
Urban Area Built-Up Area
areas)
* Excludes concept plans or
plans held in abeyance.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
81
In Clarington, a large amount of the residential land supply has already been approved and is
committed. Of the inventory categories, only the vacant designated lands and
lands with proposed plans of subdivision are uncommitted - all of the other areas are
committed for development. Please see the Glossary for definitions of the various plans within
the development inventory. Appendix A provides a description of the methodology used to
estimate residential land supply.
Table 4.3 shows the summary of the development inventory as of 2011. Clarington has more
than 7,400 residential units in the committed development inventory in both greenfield lands
and within the built-up area. Based on an average of number of units forecasted to be built per
approximately 8 years of
supply.
Table 4.3: Residential Units - Committed (in Development Inventory)
Committed
Built-Up Area Greenfield Area S.S Potential Sub Total
Area
Bowmanville 1,935 2,997 99 5,031 units
Courtice 158 827 20 1,005 units
Newcastle 570 693 25 1,288 units
Rural/Hamlet - 113 2 115 units
Sub-Total 2,663 4,630 146 7,439 units
Source: Development Inventory and Potential Units in Rural/Hamlet and Secondary Suits were provided by the Municipality
of Clarington, March 2011.
Beyond the units committed for development, there are a number of vacant designated lands
Table 4.4 presents the distribution of
Claring for greenfield areas. The
urban expansions proposed in ROPA 128 are not included in the land supply calculation, as
these expansions are subject to Provincial approvals and the outcome of a Ontario Municipal
Board hearing.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
82
Table 4.4: Estimated Vacant Land in Designated Greenfield Areas (Gross Ha)
Committed Greenfield Uncommitted Greenfield
Area Lands (Ha) Lands (Ha) Total (Ha)
Bowmanville 278 380 658 58%
Courtice 104 173 277 24%
Newcastle 52 156 208 18%
Sub-Total 434 709 1,143 100%
Percent 38% 62% - -
Source: Dillon Consulting Limited and Municipality of Clarington
Clarington has a large amount of designated greenfield lands, totaling 1,143 ha, with roughly
58% of them located in Bowmanville. Much of the current land supply (38%) has already been
planned and approved (in the form of registered and draft approved plans) and therefore the
form and number of units to be developed has already been determined. 709 hectares (62%)
proposed plans under review or vacant lands without a plan. Figure 4.9 shows the committed
and uncommitted greenfield areas, as well as the environmental constraints.
The Intensification Discussion Paper presents the analysis of intensification opportunities in
The Intensification Discussion Paper concluded that
beyond the 2,663 units of committed development within the built-up area, that Clarington has
sufficient land and opportunities within the Centres, Corridors and other areas to accommodate
the remaining 3,518 units required to meet its intensification target of 6,181 units.
Section 6 of this Discussion Paper further explores the range of options for developing
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
83
n Rd 6
cessio
Con
Concession Rd 7
Figure 4.9
Committed & Uncommitted
Greenfields
Road
aunton
T
December 31 2010
Tyler Street
Orono
Legend
Local Road
Arterial Road
Highway
Concession Rd 4
Pebblestone Road
Proposed 407 Link
Regional Corridor
Clarington Municipal Boundary
Urban Boundary
Built Boundary
Town & Village Centre
Nash Road
G
H
35/115
Major Waterbody
Environmental Protection
Courtice
Green Space
$
+
35
Waterfront Greenway
Bowmanville
Natural Environment Contraints
Concession Street E
Bloor Street
ROPA 128 Urban Boudary
Rd
Concession
Expansion
Uncommitted Greenfield
Committed Subdivisions
**The source of all data is the Municipality of Clarington**
Baseline Road
Baseline Road E
**Natural environmental constraints consist of ANSI,
wetlands, woodlots, valley land, and waterbodies**
$
+
115
401
Newcastle
1 : 60,000
01,0002,0003,000
Lake Ontario
Map Created By: SFG
Checked By: EC
Date Created: 110509
Date Modified: 032612
File Path: I:\\GIS\\091696 - Clarington\\
Mapping\\Working\\Finals_111209
Greenfield and Committed Areas Map.mxd
4.2.6 Housing Affordability
Housing affordability is one of the key
Single family homes are relatively
factors supp
more affordable in Clarington than in
residential growth, which has mainly focused
the rest of Durham and the GTA,
on single-detached homes. Clarington has
which in part can explain the
more affordable single-detached homes in
attractiveness of this type of
comparison to the Region of Durham and the
development in the Municipality
GTA. As of 2008, housing sale prices for new
single-detached homes in Clarington were
lower than in the Region of Durham and the
GTA. The change in average price of a recently constructed single-detached dwelling in
Clarington was similar to Durham, at 7.46% higher, but greater than the GTA as a whole.
When compared with other municipalities in the Region of Durham, Clarington is significantly
more affordable than Ajax, Pickering and Uxbridge; these three municipalities experienced
considerable increase in housing sale prices with hikes of 14%, 20% and 26% respectively,
between 2007 and 2008. Clarington has similar average single-detached housing prices than
the neighbouring Oshawa and slightly lower than Whitby. Table 4.5 summarizes recent housing
sale prices for single-detached units in Clarington, Region of Durham, other municipalities in the
Region and the GTA for 2006, 2007 and 2008.
Table 4.5: Recent Housing Prices for Single Family Homes
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
85
4.3 Educational Attainment
Educational levels have been reviewed using
the 25-44 age cohort, which is generally
has higher levels of training in trades
considered the prime working age group.
and college programs compared
This cohort has been used rather than the
Region of Durham, the Oshawa CMA,
total labour force (age 15 and over). Total
the Toronto CMA and Ontario overall
labour force would be misleading since it
includes data on persons that are too young
to have graduated from high school, trades schools or universities.
programs compared the Region of Durham, the Oshawa census metropolitan area (CMA), the
Toronto CMA and Ontario overall. For example, about 44% of the labour force in the age 25 to
44 age cohort in Clarington has apprenticeship, trades certificates/diplomas or college
certificate diplomas. This figure is aligned with around 39% in the Region of Durham, 41% in
the Oshawa CMA, 26% for the Toronto CMA and 32% for Ontario overall. This age cohort in
Clarington has lower levels of university degree attainment than the other jurisdictions. Based
on this data, it appears that the level of education may be more suited to the jobs in trades
including construction and some manufacturing and technical fields. See Table 4.6 for
educational attainment levels.
Table 4.6: Highest Educational Attainment of Prime Working Age Group (25 to 44 Years of Age)
Oshawa Region of Toronto
Highest Level of Clarington CMA Durham CMA Ontario
Educational Attainment 25-44 25-44 25-44 25-44 25-44
% % % % %
No certificate, diploma or degree 9.1 9.4 8.5 8.2 9.7
High school certificate or equivalent 28.4 27.3 26.5 21.5 24.1
Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma 9.1 8.8 8.6 5.9 7.5
College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or
diploma* 35.0 31.9 30.5 19.7 24.1
Bachelor's degree 11.1 13.5 15.4 24.6 19.3
University certificate or diploma above bachelor level 2.8 2.8 3.1 4.1 3.5
Degree in medicine, dentistry, veterinary medicine or
optometry 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.8
Master's degree 1.4 2.4 2.7 7.8 5.7
Earned doctorate 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8
* This category includes accreditation by non degree-granting institutions such as community colleges, CEGEPs,
private business colleges and technical institutes.
Source: Statistics Canada
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
86
It is noted that the referred data reflects the educational levels of persons residing in
Clarington, not those that are employed in jobs in Clarington. A portion of workers in
Clarington, including those working at Darlington, have very high and specialized educational
training a large percentage of these workers reside in other communities.
Clarington is part of a broad labour market, with high levels of labour inflow and outflow.
When companies making locational decisions assess the educational attainment of available
labour, they consider the broader region, which for Clarington overlaps with the Oshawa CMA,
parts of the Region of Durham and parts of the Toronto CMA.
4.4 Local Employment Trends
4.4.1 Historic Employment Growth Trends
A high amount of job growth occurred in Clarington between 1996 and 2006. The number of
8
jobs at fixed places of work in Clarington in 1996 was reported by Statistics Canada as 10,510,
this figure increased to 16,175 in 2001, and to 18,415 in 2006. This represents a per annum
growth of around 7.5% over the 10 year period, with the highest growth occurring in the 1996 -
2001 period (about 10.8% annum growth) and a much lower growth between 2001 and 2006
(about 2.8%). The number of jobs in Clarington increased at a slightly higher rate than regional
jobs growth between 2001 and 2006: jobs at fixed places of work in the Oshawa CMA and the
Region of Durham increased by 2.5% and 1.9% per annum respectively between 2001 and 2006.
Table 4.7 shows the estimated jobs growth in Clarington between 2001 and 2006.
Table 4.7: Estimated Jobs Growth in Clarington
Clarington Clarington Percent
NAICS Change
2006 Jobs 2001 Jobs Growth
All Industries 18,415 16,175 2,240 13.8%
11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 655 760 -105 -13.8%
21 Mining and oil and gas extraction 35 50 -15 -30.0%
22 Utilities 2,855 2,415 440 18.2%
23 Construction 1,000 620 380 61.3%
31-33 Manufacturing 1,590 1,750 -160 -9.1%
41 Wholesale trade 465 495 -30 -6.1%
44-45 Retail trade 2,060 2,065 -5 -0.2%
48-49 Transportation and warehousing 535 385 150 39.0%
8
Jobs at Fixed Places of Work: Jobs that are associated with a permanent place of work such as persons working
in an office, manufacturing or commercial facility. The majority of people in Clarington have jobs at fixed places of
work estimated at about 88% in 2006.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
87
Clarington Clarington Percent
NAICS Change
2006 Jobs 2001 Jobs Growth
51 Information and cultural industries 250 195 55 28.2%
52 Finance and insurance 380 305 75 24.6%
53 Real estate and rental and leasing 295 280 15 5.4%
54 Professional, scientific and technical services 805 630 175 27.8%
55 Management of companies and enterprises 0 0 0 0.0%
56 Admin. and support, waste
management/remediation services 650 320 330 103.1%
61 Educational services 1,610 1,320 290 22.0%
62 Health care and social assistance 1,780 1,520 260 17.1%
71 Arts, entertainment and recreation 330 265 65 24.5%
72 Accommodation and food services 1,640 1,655 -15 -0.9%
81 Other services (except public administration) 980 680 300 44.1%
91 Public administration 510 470 40 8.5%
Source: Statistics Canada; EDP Consulting
The highest levels of jobs growth by sector
Very significant jobs growth occurred
in Clarington between 2001 and 2006 were
in Clarington between 1996 and 2006
in the following sectors: utilities (due to
The number of jobs in Clarington
jobs growth at Darlington); construction;
increased at a slightly higher rate
administration and support, waste
than regional jobs growth between
management and remediation services,
2001 and 2006
and population related services such as
educational services and health care and
social assistance services. A further
discussion of growth and concentration within specific industry sub-sectors and segments in
Clarington, and additional analysis regarding economic base and employment lands, are
included in the Economic Base and Employment Lands Discussion Paper.
4.4.2 Income Levels
The median household income of households in Clarington in 2005 was slightly higher than in
the Region of Durham, and significantly higher than the Toronto CMA and Ontario overall, as
noted below. This may be the case because of a large portion of wage earners in Clarington
may have been employed at high paying jobs at Darlington and General Motors. Table 4.8
shows the median income by household in 2005.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
88
Table 4.8: Median Income in 2005 - Households
Household Location 2005 Income
Clarington
$77,627
Region of Durham
$75,397
Toronto CMA
$64,128
Ontario $60,455
Source: Statistics Canada , Community Profiles
4.4.3 Local Employment Opportunities
Darlington Nuclear Station Expansion,
The following emerging drivers for
Clarington Energy Business Park,
increasing local jobs will be considered when
Technology Business Park and Other
exploring opportunities for growth in
Emerging Jobs Drivers may have a
Clarington. These are also explored in detail
potential spin-off impact on jobs
in the Economic Base and Employment
Lands Discussion Paper.
Darlington Nuclear Station Expansion and Refurbishment
The Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is proposing to develop Darlington New Nuclear Project at
an existing site in Clarington. This proposed project involves the construction and operation of
new nuclear power reactors at OPGand will provide up to 60 years of
base load electricity for Ontarians. The expansion of the Darlington Nuclear Station has the
potential for job creation, both during the construction and the operation phase and additional
socio-economic benefits. In August 2011 the Joint Review Panel for the Darlington New Nuclear
Project Environmental Assessment (EA) and Licence to Prepare Site Application provided a
report to the Federal Minister of Environment. The federal government will now prepare their
response for approval, with a final determination on their acceptance of the EA.
In addition, the OPG is undertaking a mid-life
refurbishment of the Darlington Nuclear Station. This
refurbishment, as being proposed, would mean
approximately another 30 years of service. On
December 2011, the OPG submitted the Environmental
Impact Statement (EIS) and Integrated Safety Review
(ISR) reports to the Canadian Nuclear Safety
commission. These are two important regulatory
www.opg.com/news/photolibrary.asp
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
89
requirements in support of Darlington Refurbishment. The ISR report concluded that the
existing Darlington station demonstrates a high level of compliance with modern codes and
standards.
Clarington Energy Business Park
The Clarington Energy Business Park is located in Courtice and in proximity of the planned GO
Station. This employment area has excellent access to the Highway 401, the planned 407 link
and the waterfront and has the potentiality to become a major employment center for
Clarington. The Vision for the Clarington Energy Business Park, as identified in the 2005
Clarington Energy Business Park Study is that of an integrated business park which catalyzes the
development, commercialization, and demonstration of a state-of-the-art energy and
environmental technologies to drive competitiveness and support sustainable development. A
secondary plan and Zoning Bylaw for the Energy Park have been prepared and approved.
Darlington Energy Complex
On November 25, 2011 the Site Plan
was approved for the construction of
the Darlington Energy Complex in the
Clarington Energy Business Park. The
Ontario Power Generation plans to
build a LEED certified, SILVER level
2
multi-purpose building (26, 769 m. It
2
will consist of a 12, 890 m three
storey office component with an
2
auditorium, and a 14, 145 m
warehouse for a refurbishment and
mock-up operations. The facility will be used predominantly for staff training related to the
upcoming refurbishment of the Darlington Nuclear Generating Station.
Construction has begun and is anticipated to be completed in July 2013.
Technology Business Park
A secondary plan has been prepared for the Technology Business Park, which is proposed to be
located in Bowmanville, between King Street/Highway 2 (to the North) and Highway 401 (to the
south) and between Bennett Road (to the east) and Haines Road (to the west). The Vision for
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
90
9
research park, it is intended to have strong links to MaRS, access to other research institutions
and agencies, and potentially shared on-site testing facilities. It is intended that as a business
park, it will have a global market focus and identity creating prestige employment opportunities
for the surrounding area.
Other Jobs Drivers and Emerging Drivers
Growth is expected in several clusters and sectors as discussed in Section 4.3 and the Economic
Base and Employment Lands Discussion Paper. Additionally, there will also be continued
growth in population related services such as retail (such as Walmart) and commercial and
institutional uses as the population increases.
Regional initiatives that may have a potential spin-off impact on jobs include improvements to
the local highway and road networks, projected population growth, expansions to
UOIT/Durham College, and the potential new airport in Pickering. The scarcity of employment
lands elsewhere in the more central portions of the GTA may result in increased demand for
employment lands in the Region of Durham, including Clarington.
4.4.4 Key Sectors in Clarington
Clarington currently has strength in the following sectors: utilities (particularly electric power
generation), construction, agriculture, tourism (as measured by accommodation and food
services), and educational services. Between 2001 and 2006, there has been significant growth
in the following sectors: utilities (electric power generation), construction, transportation and
warehousing; and administrative and support, waste management/remediation services.
Key sectors and clusters that will stimulate future economic growth in Clarington include the
following:
Energy: This cluster differentiates the Region of Durham and Clarington from other regions
and municipalities in the GTA, and is expected to be one of the economic drivers for future
growth in the municipality. Initiatives that will strengthen this economic cluster in
Clarington include the proposed Energy from Waste (EFW) Facility, the proposed
Darlington New Build project, and the Clarington Energy Park.
Environmental Technologies Industries: This is an emerging cluster in Clarington and has
shown growth. This is also an area that has synergies with the Energy cluster, and has been
identified as an emerging growth area in the GTA and includes activities such as
9
MaRS: A public-private partnership with a mission to provide resources people, programs, physical facilities,
funding and networks to entrepreneurs to ensure help bring new and innovative ideas to the marketplace.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
91
environmental testing, engineering, design as well as those businesses involved in
producing green technologies.
Agriculture: Agriculture is an important part of the economy in Clarington. Clarington
agriculture industry account for around 26% of farm operators in Region of Durham. The
importance of Agriculture is not just confined to the Agriculture sector. It also includes a
number of agri-businesses in other sectors such as food manufacturing, retail and tourism.
Construction: Growth is expected in the construction sector due to the planned population
and housing growth and also large planned construction projects such as Highway 407
Extension and the Darlington New Build project (assuming that it proceeds). Activity in the
construction sector will have significant spin-off impacts for Clarington in the tourism
sector (particularly accommodations and food services).
Tourism: Growth is expected in the accommodations and food services segment of the
tourism sector fueled by demand for temporary accommodations for the influx of
construction workers that would be associated with large construction projects such as the
Darlington New Build. Clarington also has a viable tourist industry and is attractive as a day
trip location for GTA residents. Tourism is also one of the sectors that the Clarington Board
of Trade and Region of Durham are actively promoting and is expected to grow.
Transportation and Warehousing: Growth is expected to continue in this sector as a result
uding the Highway 407 extension and the
Highway 401/407 link, available large industrial sites in undeveloped designated
employment areas to accommodate these space extensive uses, and lower land costs
relative to more central areas in the GTA.
Health and Wellness: This is a potential emerging cluster, and initiatives and partnerships
are underway to develop this cluster at
the Technology Business Park area in
Clarington currently has strength in the
Clarington.
utilities, construction, agriculture, tourism
and educational services sectors
In addition to the above sectors, there will
Energy, environment, agriculture,
also be continued growth in population
construction, tourism, and transportation
related services such as retail and
and warehousing are key sectors and
commercial development and institutional
clusters that will stimulate future
uses as the population increases. There
economic growth in Clarington
could also be some growth in niche
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
92
segments of sectors not noted above.
4.4.5 Employment Areas
The gross supply of vacant employment
Clarington has a supply of approximately
lands in Clarington is approximately 672
672 gross hectares designated as
gross hectares (gross area was calculated
employment lands
after deducting land needed for the
About 65% of the vacant employment
Highway 401/407 Link, and lands with
lands in Clarington are located in Courtice
environmental constraints).
Employment lands in Clarington considered vacant for this analysis are either unoccupied or are
used for activities other than industrial type uses, warehousing, offices, and/or associated retail
and ancillary uses. Around 65% of vacant employment lands are situated in Courtice, which is
around 440 gross hectares. The next largest supply of vacant employment lands is in
Bowmanville, comprising 204 gross hectares or about 30% of the vacant supply, followed by
Newcastle which only has about 28 gross hectares of vacant employment lands, accounting for
just over 4% of total supply. Nearly half (46%) of vacant employment lands in Clarington are
designated for light industrial uses. About 19% are designated for general industrial uses.
Employment lands designated for prestige industrial and business park uses account for about
22% and 13% of vacant employment lands respectively. Figure 4.10 shows the location of
active and vacant employment lands in Clarington. Refer to the Economic Base and
Employment Lands Discussion Paper for a comprehensive analysis of the employment land
supply by each community.
As discussed in Section 3.2, a key constraint of the supply of employment lands in Clarington is
the servicing status. Only around 56 hectares of vacant employment lands in Clarington are
serviced by both municipal water and sanitary sewer, which represents less than 10% of the
vacant employment land supply. Further factors that may impede on the supply of
employment lands are the refinement of the existing Natural Heritage System through
Watershed Planning, as pointed on Section 3.1 of the paper, and other aspects such as the fact
that employment lands owned by Ontario Hydro in Newcastle that are not available to the
market.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
93
Figure 4.10
Vacant & Occupied
Employment Lands
Orono
Legend
Local Road
Arterial Road
Highway
Proposed 407 Link
Built Boundary
Urban Boundary
Clarington Municipal Boundary
Major Waterbody
Environmental Protection
Green Space
Courtice
Waterfront Greenway
$
+
Utility Areas
35
ROPA 128 Urban Boudary
Bowmanville
Expansion
Proposed Employment Area
Vacant Employment Lands
Newcastle
Occupied Employment Lands
Aggregate Extraction
**The source of all data is the Municipality of Clarington,
September 2009**
$
+
115
401
1 : 60,000
01,0002,0003,000
Map Created By: JJA
Checked By: EC
Date Created: 110509
Lake Ontario
Date Modified: 021012
File Path: I:\\GIS\\091696 - Clarington\\
Mapping\\Working\\Finals_111209\\
Vacant vs. Occupied Employment
Lands Map.mxd
4.4.6 Employment Areas & Potential for Live-Work Relationships
The largest portion of Courtice employment
The proximity of employment and
lands is situated in the southern part of that
residential areas in Courtice and the
community, between Bloor Street and
location of the Regional Corridors provide
Highway 401, and a smaller portion located
opportunities for live-work relationships
south of the Highway 401. Two of the
in the community
Regional Corridors proposed in ROPA 128 at
Employment areas in Bowmanville and
Bloor Street and Courtice Road limit the
Newcastle are isolated from the
northern and eastern part of the
residential areas
employment area in Courtice, which is
adjacent to large vacant residential areas.
This proximity between the residential and employment areas represent opportunities for live-
work relationships in the area. The proposed Regional Corridors could also provide
opportunities for a more compact and intense development that is transit oriented and with
mixed-uses. Live-work relationships could be further created with the provision of a transit
system that connects the employment areas with the rest of the residential areas in Courtice
and the rest of Clarington. For instance, the proposed Go station in Courtice offer
opportunities for higher densities and mixed uses in the area surrounding the station.
The majority of employment lands in Bowmanville are located in the eastern part of that
community, between Simpson Avenue /Port Darlington Road and Bennett Road, north and
south of Highway 401 and extending north to Highway 2. The Newcastle employment area is a
relatively small employment area compared to the employment areas in Bowmanville and
Courtice. It is also the most easterly portion of Clarington and is on the periphery of the GTA.
The employment areas in Bowmanville and Newcastle are isolated from the residential areas.
Significant strips of the natural heritage system and/or the Highway 401 separate the
employment areas from the residential areas. The provision of a transit system that connects
the employment areas with the proposed GO Transit Stations and the rest of the residential
areas in Bowmanville and Newcastle could help to create live-work relationships in the
community.
4.4.7 Recommendations
Economic Base and Employment Lands Discussion Paper
Clarington has significant opportunities for attracting new economic development in the future
once planned transportation and infrastructure improvements are made and employment
lands are serviced. However, there are a number of policy issues that need to be addressed to
ensure that Clarington maximizes its economic development potential. The following provides
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
95
a summary of the policy recommendations in the Economic Base and Employment Lands
Discussion Paper:
Employment policies contained within the PPS, Places to Grow and ROPA 128 need to
Employment lands need to be serviced, with phasing based on the preferred growth
Further consideration needs to be given to refining the vision and secondary plan for the
Technology Park.
A challenge will be to find appropriate locations for less desirable space extensive uses
that may want to locate in the municipality while ensuring that such uses do not locate
in areas where their presence detracts from the attractiveness of the area for higher
order uses or planned vision.
Efforts will be needed to improve the attractiveness and image of employment
areas, particularly those along the Highway 401 corridor.
It will be important for the Municipality to protect designated employment lands
from conversion to other uses, and protect the long term supply of strategically located
employment lands needed for jobs growth beyond the forecast period.
businesses.
A proactive economic development strategy is needed to retain and create jobs in
Clarington.
Agriculture is an important sector in Clarington it will be important that adequate
buffering and transitioning of lands surrounding farm operations be provided to help
existing farms remain viable and limit conflicts at the urban/rural fringe.
Efforts at downtown improvements and revitalization, urban design, and
development of cultural and recreational amenities should be continued, as these are
part of the quality of life package for new talent and residents.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
96
4.5 Commercial Land Supply
In addition to jobs on designated employment lands, there are commercial centres that provide
retail, service and office opportunities to residents and offer local employment opportunities.
Major commercial uses are found in the central downtown areas and associated corridors of
Bowmanville, Newcastle and Courtice.
Population related employment (such as banks and supermarkets) is directly related to the
growth of population and households. As population increases, so does the need for retail and
service commercial floor space.
Before making decisions on any expansion of existing centres or the creation of new
commercial areas, consideration should be given to the potential to accommodate additional
retail and service commercial floor space through redevelopment at higher densities. A key
question is how much new commercial space can be accommodated through redevelopment
and on vacant lands designated for commercial development? Developing a reliable estimate
for redevelopment would involve a review of potential to intensify specific sites, and site
reviews which are beyond the scope of the work plan for this study. This type of work would
normally be undertaken as part of a commercial planning study. Land use decisions for larger
regional level facilities would require a market study and more in-depth commercial analysis.
Estimates of commercial land needs based on projected population and commercial floor space
needs are provided in this section. Based on an update to the Clarington Commercial Policy
Review of 2006, completed by urbanMetrics, it has been estimated that by 2031 Clarington will
22
warrant 200,000 m (2.1 million ft) of additional commercial floor space. This estimate is
Using an average development model similar to new
2
200,000 m commercial
construction on a vacant site (25% building lot coverage), the
floor space @ 25% lot
2
warranted commercial floor space (200,000 m) could be
coverage = 80 Ha of
accommodated on 80 Ha (197 ac.) of commercial land area.
commercial land
This land area number represents the top end of forecasted commercial land needs since a
certain amount of new commercial floor space may also be accommodated in the community
through:
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
97
Redevelopment at higher densities (i.e. Newcastle Shoppers Drug Mart or Zellers/Target
conversion and expansion); and
Conversion of old homes, located in downtown areas, from residential to commercial
Bowmanville currently contains 68% of all of the distribution of commercial floor space in
distribution of commercial floor space in Bowmanville is directly related to Official Plan policies
adopted in 1996 which identified Bowmanville to be the predominant urban centre in
Clarington and to provide for the development of the Bowmanville Town Centres (East and
West) as a regional centre. The decision to identify Bowmanville as the commercial hub of the
Municipality was due to a number of factors including the concentration of other
industries/sectors in Bowmanville (i.e. local government and the local hospital). In addition,
in Courtice that is far more competitive than elsewhere in Clarington.
Table 4.9 shows the estimated change in the distribution of commercial floor space in
Clarington between 2011 and 2031.
Table 4.9: Commercial Floor Space Distribution
Community 2011 2031
Bowmanville 68% 64%
Courtice 15% 24%
Newcastle 8% 6%
Hamlet and Rural Areas 10% 5%
Total 100% 100%
Commercial Market Analysis Update (urbanMetrics, 2012)
Source:
Table 4.10 shows the change in the forecasted population distribution in Clarington between
2011 and 2031.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
98
Table 4.10: Population Distribution
Community 2011 2031
Bowmanville 41% 47%
Courtice 27% 25%
Newcastle 12% 15%
Hamlet and Rural Areas 19% 13%
Total 100% 100%
Commercial Market Analysis Update (urbanMetrics, 2012)
Source:
Of the 80 Ha of commercial lands that will be needed to meet the warranted commercial floor
space by 2031, almost half of that (38.5 Ha) can be accommodated by existing, vacant,
commercially-designated lands in Clarington. This leaves an additional 41.5 Ha of commercial
lands that will need to be identified and designated by 2031, as illustrated in the following
table:
Table 4.11: Vacant Commercial Land Needs by 2031
Total Existing Deficiency
80 Ha 38.5 Ha -41.5 Ha
Commercial Market Analysis Update (urbanMetrics, 2012)
Source:
Based on anticipated shifts in commercial floor space distribution within the next 20 years (see
Table 4.9 above), a proposed breakdown of additional commercial land area needs by
community is as follows (see Table 4.12).
It should be noted that these estimates do not take into account current Provincial policies
which limit new commercial development and hamlet expansion in parts of the rural areas
(specifically those lands located within the Provincial Green Belt Area and the Oak Ridges
Moraine area). As a consequence, the proposed commercial land increase for the Hamlet and
Rural Areas should be viewed as a highly
200,000 m2 of new commercial floor
optimistic estimate. The resulting effect is
space will be warranted by 2031.
that commercial land needs in each of the
As much as 41.5 Ha of additionally
three largest urban areas will likely be
designated commercial land will be
greater than is represented in Table 4.12.
needed to accommodate this commercial
growth.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
99
Therefore, from a growth management perspective, areas for new commercial development
(such as neighbourhood centres) will need to continue to be planned in the community.
Table 4.12: Vacant Commercial Land Needs (Ha)
Community 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/
Needs Needs Needs Needs
DeficiencyDeficiencyDeficiencyDeficiencyDeficiency
Bowmanville 23.5 12.2 11.3 25.1 -1.6 38.6 -15.1 51.5 -28.0
Courtice 13 4.5 8.5 9.3 3.7 14.3 -1.3 19 -6.0
Newcastle 1.5 1.1 0.4 2.2 -0.7 3.4 -1.9 4.5 -3.0
Hamlet and Rural Areas 0.5 1.0 -0.5 2.0 -1.5 3.0 -2.5 4 -3.5
Total 38.5 19 19.5 39 -0.5 60 -21.5 80 -41.5
Commercial Market Analysis Update (urbanMetrics, 2012)
Source:
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
100
Section 4 Conclusions
study are:
Historic Population Growth
The Municipality has experienced rapid population growth in the last decade;
from 2001 to 2006;
The Municipality has a similar age structure in comparison with the Region of Durham,
but fewer proportion of people 55 years or older when compared with the Province of
Ontario;
The population in Newcastle and the rural areas is slightly older than in the rest of the
Municipality;
Historic Housing Growth and Urban Development
Household size has shrunk in Clarington and across Ontario;
-up area has rapidly expanded in the last 20 years;
Low density has been the predominant housing type (single and semi detached
homes) in Clarington;
Bowmanville continues to be the predominant area of growth, capturing more than
half of the building permits in the Municipality, while Orono and rural areas have
experienced minimal growth;
Single family homes are relatively more affordable in Clarington than in the rest of
Durham and the GTA, which in part can explain the attractiveness of this type of
development in the Municipality;
development inventory represents almost 8 years supply;
Twenty-seven percent of the Designated Greenfield Areas are committed with draft
approved and registered plans of subdivisions;
Employment in Clarington
Very significant jobs growth occurred in Clarington between 1996 and 2006;
The number of jobs in Clarington increased at a slightly higher rate than regional jobs
growth between 2001 and 2006;
Emerging employment drivers that may have a potential spin-off impact on jobs and
will be considered when exploring opportunities for growth in Clarington are as
follows: Darlington Nuclear Station Expansion, Clarington Energy Business Park,
Science and Technology Business Park and Other Emerging Jobs Drivers ;
Clarington currently has strength in the utilities, construction, agriculture, tourism and
educational services sectors;
Energy, environment, agriculture, construction, tourism, and transportation and
warehousing are key sectors and clusters that will stimulate future economic growth
in Clarington;
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
101
Section 4 Conclusions (continued)
Clarington has approximately 672 gross hectares designated as employment lands
that are vacant;
About 65% of the vacant employment lands in Clarington are located in Courtice;
Clarington has significant opportunities for attracting new economic development in
the future once planned transportation and infrastructure improvements are made
and employment lands are serviced. However, there are a number of policy issues
that need to be addressed to ensure that Clarington maximizes its economic
development potential.
Potential for Live-Work Relationships
The proximity of employment and residential areas in Courtice and the location of the
Regional Corridors provide opportunities for live-work relationships in the community;
Employment areas in Bowmanville and Newcastle are isolated from the residential
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
102
Section 5
Growth Projections
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
103
5 RESIDENTIAL AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
In order to better understand where growth
may occur, Hemson Consulting Ltd.
to grow by 74% by 2031
(Hemson) was engaged to prepare
Municipal population growth will
residential and employment projections to
significantly vary among the urban
the local communities within Clarington (see
communities and rural areas
Appendix B). Projections in ROPA 128
Bowmanville will continue as the
largest urban community in
population will grow to 140,340 people,
Clarington
while employment and households counts
Rural areas, including hamlets and
are projected to grow to 38,420 and 52,120,
Orono, will experience slow growth
respectively. The Hemson projection is
based on a Greater Toronto Area and
Hamilton wide analysis of household
formation by age, the changing age structure of the population and the local historic trends in
Durham and Clarington. This projection considers how growth would have occurred in the
absence of the specific rules of the Growth Plan.
each main community capturing shares of the ROPA 128 projected housing market by unit type.
5.1 Population and Housing Projections
5.1.1 Projected Population Growth by Community
Municipal population growth will significantly vary
among the urban communities and rural areas.
According to Hemson estimates for Scenario 1,
Bowmanville will continue as the largest urban
community in Clarington, reaching approximately
66,400 residents by 2031, which represent a
growth of 110% during 2006-2031. Meanwhile,
by 2031 Courtice will have 35,000 residents and
Newcastle will have almost 21,000 residents.
by 51% and
Newcastle will have a population more than
double of its current, with 134% growth. The
rural areas, including hamlets and Orono, will
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
104
experience slow growth of only 5% over the forecast period, reaching a population of 18,050
people. Table 5.1 ty.
Table 5.1: Clarington Population by Community
Hamlet/
Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Total
Year
31,600 23,200 8,900 17,200 80,900
2006
36,700 24,500 11,100 17,500 89,700
2011
42,900 26,700 13,600 17,600 100,800
2016
50,400 29,300 16,500 17,800 114,100
2021
58,300 32,200 19,100 18,000 127,600
2026
66,400 35,000 20,900 18,100 140,300
2031
34,700 11,800 12,000 900 59,400
Growth
110% 51% 134% 5% 74%
2006-2031
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2010. Note: Population includes net under-coverage.
population is expected to growth steady and at
rates consistent with recent periods. Most of the growth is expected to be focused in the
current urbanized areas of the municipality. This Growth Management Study will recommend
where growth should be directed, which areas to intensify and which areas to limit from
expansion in the future.
5.1.2 Projected Population Growth by Age
Clarington population will continue to age over the next two decades, with its population over
55 years representing 30% by 2031. The 55 + age group will keep increasing in the rural/hamlet
areas, from 27% in 2006 to 41% in 2031. On the other hand, Bowmanville will have a slightly
younger population than the rest of the municipality. Figures 5.1 and 5.2 compare the
population base by age structure for the
Claring
municipality and its major communities in
aging in the next decades
2006 and 2031.
The population in Newcastle and the
rural areas will concentrate more
people of 55 years or more than the
future age structure will have implications
rest of the Municipality
for housing services and facilities demand
and for the employment base. Changes in
the demographic profile towards an aging population will affect housing demand, as there will
be fewer households with children living with their parents, thus declining the average
household size. An aging population will also require different services, such as long-term care
facilities, senior services and more transportation options. The Municipality will need to
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
105
consider policy changes in its Official Plan as well as changes in its programs and services in
response to the demographic changes.
Figure 5.1: Percent Population by Age, 2006
4%3%
100%
5%6%
7%
13%
90%
13%
15%
17%
21%
80%
70%
60%
52%
52%
51%
47%
50%47%
40%
30%
20%
32%
30%30%
28%
26%
10%
0%
ClaringtonBowmanvilleCourticeNewcastleRural/
Hamlets
0-1920-5455-7475+
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting 2009
Figure 5.2: Percent Population by Age, 2031
6%
100%
8%8%
9%
14%
90%
19%
22%
80%24%
23%
27%
70%
60%
49%
50%
46%
44%
46%
40%
39%
30%
20%
26%
24%24%
22%
10%20%
0%
ClaringtonBowmanvilleCourticeNewcastleRural/
Hamlets
0-1920-5455-7475+
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting 2009
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
106
5.1.3 Projected Housing Growth by Community
The household size in Clarington is expected to continue to decline from 2.87 residents per
household in 2006 to 2.66 in 2031 (as estimated by Hemson). This decrease is expected as the
population ages and the proportion of one-person and two-person household increases.
Decline in household size has implications in the housing demand, increasing demand for higher
density types of housing.
Average household size is expected to
Most of the housing unit growth in
keep declining to 2.66 people per unit
Clarington is anticipated to occur in the
in 2031
urban communities of Bowmanville,
Most of the housing unit growth is
Courtice and Newcastle. Orono and the
anticipated to occur in the urban
rural areas are not expected to experience
communities of Bowmanville, Courtice
significant growth due to their servicing
and Newcastle
constraints, their limited amount of
Low density housing (singles and semi-
available lots and in response to provincial
detached) will continue to be the
policies in the PPS, Places to Grow and
predominant unit type in Clarington
Greenbelt plan. Table 5.2 shows the
projected households by community as
projected by Hemson for Scenario 1. Figure 5.3 illustrates the projected housing growth by
type during the 2006-2031 period in Clarington major communities
calculations for Scenario 1.
Table 5.2: Clarington Households by Community 2006-2031
Hamlet/
Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Total
Year
10,650 7,360 3,030 5,860 26,900
2006
12,520 7,860 3,800 6,060 30,240
2011
14,960 8,710 4,760 6,200 34,630
2016
17,900 9,730 5,930 6,360 39,920
2021
21,030 10,850 7,010 6,520 45,410
2026
24,300 11,970 7,810 6,640 50,720
2031
13,650 4,610 4,780 780 23,820
Growth
128% 63% 158% 13% 74%
2006-2031
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2010.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
107
Figure 5.3: Distribution of Housing Growth by Type 2006-2031
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
BowmanvilleCourticeNewcastleHamlet/ RuralTotal Clarington
60.2%71.5%73.0%95.3%66.1%
Low Density
19.4%21.9%16.6%0.0%18.7%
Medium Density
20.4%6.5%10.5%4.7%15.2%
High Density
Source: Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Clarington will have approximately 50,720 housing units by the end of the projection period,
with more than 75% in the form of low density (singles and semi-detached homes). Clarington
will have more than 23,820 additional units by 2031, from which 66% will be low density. Low
density housing will continue to be the predominant unit type in Clarington; however, this type
of housing will have a lower participation in the market than the historic trends. In addition,
19% of new housing will be in the form of medium density (Row and Townhouses) and 15% will
be in the form of high density (apartments).
Important differences can be found when the total unit growth is broken down by major
community. Hemson projected that Bowmanville will capture 57% of the housing growth,
including more than three quarters of the apartments.
a more significant percentage in high density (20%), while in Courtice apartments will represent
only a 6.5% of its unit projected growth. Figure 5.4 shows the distribution of the projected unit
growth by housing type in the 2006-2031 period.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
108
Figure 5.4: Clarington Total Forecast Housing by 2031
Source: Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd.
5.2 Employment Projections
Employment forecasts have also been prepared for Clarington by Hemson. These are based on
Growth Plan forecast to local municipalities. Jobs in
Clarington are forecasted to increase from 20,900 in 2006 to about 38,400 in 2031, an increase
in 17,500 jobs. The majority of jobs are at fixed places of employment (about 88% in 2006).
Bowmanville is the largest community in
Jobs in Clarington are forecasted to increase
Clarington and its role as an economic
from 20,900 in 2006 to 38,400 in 2031, an
centre is forecasted to increase.
increase in 17,500 jobs
Bowmanville is the largest community in
employment is forecasted to increase from
Clarington and its role as an economic
around 38% in 2006 to 43% in 2031. The
centre is forecasted to increase
number of jobs in Bowmanville is
Half of the employment in Clarington is in
forecasted to more than double with
employment lands, and this proportion is
growth of around 8,600 jobs. Jobs growth
expected to continue in 2031
in Courtice is forecasted to nearly double
from its 2006 level, however, the overall
number of jobs in Courtice is projected for 2031 as only 10,170, which is an increase of only
around 4,870 jobs from 2006. A relatively low level of jobs growth is forecasted for Newcastle
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
109
and Rural Areas. The estimated growth for Special Areas (includes temporary large project
construction) is mainly associated with expected employment growth from the Darlington New
Build. Employment forecasts by community are shown in Table 5.3.
Table 5.3: Forecasted Employment Growth by Community
Special
Employment Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Areas Total
2006 8,000 5,300 1,110 3,380 3,150 20,940
2031 16,590 10,170 2,840 3,980 4,850 38,420
Growth (2006-2031) 8,590 4,870 1,730 600 1,700 17,480
107% 92% 155% 17% 54% 83%
% 2006 Employment 38.2% 25.3% 5.3% 16.1% 15.0% 100.0%
% 2031 Employment 43.2% 26.5% 7.4% 10.4% 12.6% 100.0%
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2010; total is rounded
Regarding the forecast by the three major land use planning types, employment in employment
10
lands will represent the 50.6% (19,440 jobs) in 2031, while the population related
employment will represent the 46.5% (17,880 jobs). The remainder 2.9% (1,100 jobs) will be for
major office employment.
10
Employment lands employment is identified by Hemson as the range of employment in industrial type buildings,
typically concentrated in business parks and other designated employment areas. Employment lands jobs are
mainly industrial jobs although a small portion are ancillary commercial and institutional uses.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
110
Section 5 Conclusions
Average household size is expected to keep declining to 2.66 people per unit in
2031;
Most of the housing unit growth is anticipated to occur in the urban communities
of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle;
Low density housing (singles and semi-detached) will continue to be the
predominant unit type in Clarington;
Municipal population growth will significantly vary among the urban communities
and rural areas;
Bowmanville will continue as the largest urban community in Clarington;
Rural areas, including hamlets and Orono, will experience slow growth;
The population in Newcastle and the rural areas will concentrate more people
age 55 years or older than the rest of the Municipality;
Jobs in Clarington are forecasted to increase from 20,900 in 2006 to 38,400 in
2031, an increase in 17,500 jobs;
Bowmanville is the largest community in Clarington and its role as an economic
centre is forecasted to increase; and,
Half of the employment in Clarington is in employment lands, and this
proportion is expected to continue in 2031.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
111
Section 6
Growth Scenarios
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
112
6 GROWTH SCENARIOS
The previous section
municipality-wide population, housing and employment forecasts. From a strategic perspective,
the projections raise several important questions:
How should urban growth be distributed amongst the three communities of Courtice,
Newcastle and Bowmanville?
and objectives?
Can growth be accommodated in a manner which balances the need to protect the
environment, preserve heritage and local character while at the same time provide
opportunities for private sector investment and be consistent with Regional and
Provincial policies?
In an effort to answer these questions the following section presents three alternative Growth
Scenarios. The purpose of the Scenarios is to illustrate the potential implications of growth.
The three Growth Scenarios are as follows:
Scenario 1: Current Trend;
Scenario 2: Growing Durham;
Scenario 3: Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character.
The next subsection briefly explains the Growth Scenario framework.
6.1 Scenario Framework
Each Growth Scenario includes a number of common elements and variables (see Figure 6.1).
All three Scenarios assume the following common factors:
Aspects of Demand: All three Scenarios use a similar forecast. Scenario 1 uses the
Hemson forecast presented in Section 5. Scenarios 2 and 3 use the Growing Durham
demand forecast.
Aspects of Residential Land Supply: All three Scenarios assume that existing and
approved development within the m
planned. This category includes units in registered plans and units
in draft approved plans. The precise number of units assumed within this category
differs for Scenario 2, which uses the figures assumed for Clarington
inventory in Growing Durham.
Aspects of Employment Land Supply: All three Scenarios assume the same amount of
employment land supply.
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Council Supported Urban Boundary Expansions: All three Scenarios recognize the
Clarington Council supported urban boundary expansions in Courtice (Living Area,
Employment Area), Bowmanville (Living Area) and Orono (Employment Area) by
identifying the lands on the Scenario figures.
Recall that Section 4.2.5 presented the
Figure 6.1: Framework for Growth Scenarios
supply. The main variables in the land
Rural
supply are associated with the
uncommitted greenfield lands and
uncommitted intensification potential
Urban
(net of an intensification target).
Accordingly, the Scenarios are
Constant
Development Activity
distinguished from one another in two
)
(Committed Development
general ways:
1.Each Scenario assumes a
Employment Lands
different overall intensification
rate (and therefore a different
amount of uncommitted
Intensification
intensification development).
(Uncommitted Lands)
The Scenarios also
Variable
contemplate different
Greenfield
densities within the Centres
(
Uncommitted Lands)
and Corridors.
2.Each Scenario assumes
alternative densities and patterns for uncommitted greenfield lands (vacant and
proposed).
Given the two main variables described above, each Scenario will result in a variety of different
outcomes, including:
Conformity with Provincial plans and policies;
The level of alignment with Growing Durham and ROPA 128 policies;
Consumption of greenfield land; and,
Potential to promote intensification.
Other considerations associated with the above-noted outcomes (such as the ability to
protect natural environmental, ability to promote and support transit, etc.)
The Scenarios are presented in the next sub-sections.
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6.2 Scenario 1: Current Trend Scenario
The Current Trend Scenario reflects the continuation of historic patterns of growth with respect
to location, density and mix of uses. The purpose is to provide a base line for benchmarking the
metrics of the other two Scenarios, allowing for a comparison between past trends and future
alternatives. This Scenario is based on an analysis of existing employment, residential building
permit data, and observations related to existing patterns of development within each of the
three urban communities. Key aspects of Scenario 1 are as follows:
The Current Trend Scenario assumes a 16% municipality-wide intensification rate (the
mhistoric rate between 2001-2006) with development spread across a
number of vacant sites throughout the three main urban areas.
Assumes that 60% of greenfield lands will be developed for residential purposes (other
40% would be for infrastructure, roads, community uses and commerical development);
From a greenfield perspective, the Current Trend Scenario assumes a unit mix of 79%
low, 9% medium and 11% high on uncommitted greenfield lands (based on historic
building permit activity between 2001 and 2008); and,
Assumes the low end of official plan densities for new greenfield development on
uncommitted lands.
Figure 6.2 illustrates Scenario 1, identifying the major areas of change (intensification areas,
greenfield areas). Scenario 1 results in the need for approximately 807 gross hectares of
uncommitted greenfield land and 6 gross hectares of uncommitted intensification land, for a
combined total of 813 gross hectares. A summary of the total potential land needs for Scenario
1 is presented below. Is it important to note that the Current Trends Scenario does not conform
to the policy framework described in Section 2. This Scenario is provided for benchmarking
purposes only. Additional commentary on this Scenario is provided in Section 7.
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Table 6.1: Scenario 1 (Current Trends)
2011-2031
2006-2031 Urban Demand
2006-2031 Unit Demand 23, 820 units (Hemson)
2011-2031 Unit Demand 20,480 units (Hemson)
2011 Estimated Urban Supply (Committed)
Greenfield Built Up Area Sub-Total
4,628 units 2,663 units 7,291 units
2011-2031 Net Unit Demand Requirements
2011-2031 Demand 2011 Urban Supply (Committed) Net Unit Demand Need, 2011-
2031
20,480 units 7,291 units 13,189 units
Intensification Units Greenfield Units Totals
Intensification Estimated Average Greenfield Estimated Average Total Uncommitted Average
Units Gross Density Units Gross Density Area Required Density
(required to Area (required to Area (Greenfield +
achieve 16% Required meet net Intensification)
target) unit demand)
428 6 ha. 70 upgh 13,189 807 ha. 16 upgh 813 ha. 16 upgh
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Figure 6.2: Scenario 1, Current Trends
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6.3 Scenario 2: Growing Durham
Scenario 2 presents the vision of how growth should occur in Clarington as articulated
in the technical work done for Growing Durham. Key aspects Scenario 2 include:
Focusing growth in the Regional Centres including Bowmanville Town Centres (East and
West), Courtice Town Centre and the Newcastle Village Centre;
Aligning growth along Regional Corridors including the Courtice Main Street Corridor
(Highway 2), Courtice Road (south of Highway 2), Bloor Street in Courtice and King
Street in Bowmanville.
32% intensification rate (6,181 units)
growth targeted to Town and Village Centres and those Regional Corridors which are
located within the built-up area.
Regional Centres are planned to be developed to achieve a unit mix of 20% low, 20%
medium and 60% high, at densities of 25 upnh (low), 60 upnh (med) and 200 upnh
(high).
Uncommitted greenfield lands are planned to achieve a unit mix of 70% low density,
20% medium density and 10% high density.
Assumes 45% of all greenfield lands will be developed for residential purposes. The
other 55% of vacant greenfield land will be developed for other uses, including
infrastructure, roads, schools, churches, commercial and retails uses, etc.
Uncommitted greenfield lands not located in a Regional Corridor are planned to achieve
higher densities compared to historic trends and include 25 upnh for low density, 60
upnh for medium density and 200 upnh for high density.
Figure 6.3 illustrates the Growing Durham Scenario for Clarington. The land needs
methodology used in Growing Durham differs from the methodology used in Scenario 1 and 3
and it is not possible to classify land needs in a similar manner. Table 6.2 presents the land
needs analysis for the Growing Durham Scenario as presented in the Phase 5 Report. It is
important to note that the technical assumptions which underpin all three of the Growth
Scenarios, including densities, unit mixes, net to gross ratios, intensification rates, etc. are
comparable and are described above.
The following observations can be made with respect to the Growing Durham land needs
analysis:
The Scenario includes two urban boundary expansions between now and 2031 to
accommodate long term greenfield demand, which are factored into the land needs
analysis;
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The Scenario assumes that there are two different housing within each municipality
one for greenfield lands and other for lands within the built-up area. It is this distinction
which provides the basis for the recommended urban boundary expansions;
The Scenario assumes that there will be an oversupply of low density units within the
built up area (1,311 units).
Table 6.2: Scenario 2 (Excerpt from Growing Durham)
-2031
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Figure 6.3: Scenario 2, Growing Durham
(excerpt from Phase 5 Report, Recommended Growth Scenario and Policy Directions, November 18, 2008)
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6.4 Scenario 3: Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character
Scenario 3 builds on Scenario 2 by taking into consideration the local character and nuances
that make each of the three urban settlement areas unique. The Scenario 3 assumes that the
urban structure provided in Growing Durham is a logical starting point for developing an
intensification strategy for Clarington. The Centres and Corridors offer the best potential for
transforming neighbourhoods within Clarington into more vibrant, mixed use, pedestrian-
oriented and transit supportive areas. Key aspects of Scenario 3 include:
Focusing growth in the Regional Centres including Bowmanville Town Centres (East and
West), Courtice Town Centre and to a much lesser extent, the Newcastle Village Centre,
while attempting to balance and prioritize the magnitude and densities within the
historic downtowns of Newcastle and Bowmanville.
urban areas, with
growth targeted to Town and Village Centres and those Regional Corridors which are
located within the built-up area.
Aligning growth along Regional Corridors including the Courtice Main Street Corridor
(Highway 2), Courtice Road (south of Highway 2), Bloor Street in Courtice and King
Street in Bowmanville. A large portion of m Corridor-related growth is
planned to be accommodated within the Courtice Main Street Corridor.
The Scenario assumes Growing Durham targets of 60 upgh along some
Corridors and 75 upgh within some of the Town and Village Centres.
Uncommitted greenfield lands are planned to achieve a unit mix of 68% low density,
24% medium density and 8% high density.
Uncommitted greenfield lands not located in a Regional Corridor are planned to achieve
higher densities compared to historic trends and include 20 upnh for low density, 50
upnh for medium density and 125 upnh for high density.
Uncommitted greenfield lands within the Corridors assumed an average of 60 upgh.
Scenario 3 results in the need for approximately 480 gross hectares of uncommitted greenfield
land and 50 gross hectares of uncommitted intensification land, for a combined total of 530
gross hectares. The areas of major change are illustrated on Figure 6.4. A summary of the land
supply figures yielded for this scenario are presented in Table 6.3.
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Table 6.3: Scenario 3 (Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character)
2011-2031
2006-2031 Urban Demand
2006-2031 Unit Demand 25,076 units (Growing Durham)
Average Annual Unit Demand 1,003 units
2011-2031 Unit Demand 20,061 units (Growing Durham)
2011 Estimated Urban Supply (Committed)
Greenfield Built Up Area Sub-Total
4,630 units 2,663 units 7,293 units
2011-2031 Net Unit Demand Requirements
2011-2031 Demand 2011 Urban Supply (Committed) Net Unit Demand Need, 2011-
2031
20,061 units 7,291 12,770 units
Intensification Units Greenfield Units Totals
Intensification Estimated Average Greenfield Estimated Average Total Uncommitted Average
Units Gross Density Units Gross Density Area Required Density
(required to Area (required to Area (Greenfield +
achieve 32% Required meet net Intensification)
target) unit demand)
3,518 units 50 70 upgh 9,252 units 480 ha. 19 upgh 530 ha. 24 upgh
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Figure 6.4: Scenario 3, Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character
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6.5 Summary
This section introduced three alternative approaches
long-term growth. Scenario 1 provides a snap-shop of where Clarington is headed based on its
past performance. Scenario 2 implements the urban structure, unit mixes and densities
articulated in Growing Durham and ROPA 128. Scenario 3 provides a strategic approach to
implementing Growing Durham by modifying some of the density targets and targeting
intensification in several locations which are best positioned to capitalize on the growth
potential. The next section presents the detailed analysis, evaluation and commentary on the
Scenarios.
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Section 7
Considering the Growth
Scenarios
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7 CONSIDERING THE GROWTH SCENARIOS
7.1 Evaluation Framework
The purpose of the evaluation process is to examine a variety of implications and impacts
associated with the Growth Scenarios presented in the previous section. The evaluation
framework is divided into eight principles, which reflect the Vision discussed in Section 1 and
highlight issues of importance from the Provincial legislative context (i.e. Places to Grow, PPS),
Regional Growth Plan (Growing Durham), Official Plan principles for growth, stakeholder input
and the Corporate Strategic Plan:
Create complete, healthy and sustainable communities;
Protect provincial and local natural heritage system including agriculture;
Attain balanced growth, where residential growth will complement employment
growth;
Support transit and use infrastructure efficiently;
Direct growth to corridors and mixed use centres;
Direct most growth to urban areas;
Maintain Bowmanville as the dominant urban centre; and,
employment forms.
Each principle contains a set of indicators. Each indicator features one or more measures. The
overall assessment for each principle depends on quantitative and/or qualitative analysis of
each individual measure.
Principle 1: Create complete, healthy and sustainable communities. The corresponding
indicators are:
How well does the Scenario support ROPA 128 population, employment and household
targets?
How well does the Scenario support opportunities for residential intensification?
How well does the Scenario Places to Grow policy for growth?
How well does the Scenario conform to the Provincial Policy Statement?
How well does the Scenario provide a range of housing choices?
How well does the Scenario promote healthy, active living?
How well does the Scenario match growth with projected demand?
Principle 2: Protect provincial and local natural heritage system including agriculture. The
corresponding indicators are:
How well does the Scenario
How well does the Scenario maintain and improve watershed health?
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How well does the Scenario protect current agricultural areas?
Principle 3: Attain balanced growth, where residential growth will complement employment
growth. The corresponding indicators are:
How well does the Scenario provide for projected employment numbers and sector
trends?
How well does the Scenario provide for employment areas in close proximity to support
infrastructure?
How well does the Scenario
perspective?
Does the Scenario provide an adequate number of quality jobs?
Principle 4: Support transit and use infrastructure efficiently. The corresponding indicators
are:
How well does the Scenario direct growth to locations with appropriate levels of
infrastructure and public service facilities?
How well does the Scenario support a range of transportation choices?
How well does the Scenario
Does the Scenario support closer live-work connections?
How well can the Scenario be serviced using existing and potential future transit
systems?
How well does the Scenario support fiscal health and sustainability?
Principle 5: Direct growth to corridors and mixed use centres. The corresponding indicator is:
How well does the Scenario direct growth to the Regional Centres and Corridors?
Principle 6: Direct most growth to urban areas. The corresponding indicator is:
How well does the Scenario direct most growth to urban areas?
Principle 7: Maintain Bowmanville as the dominant urban centre. The corresponding indicator
is:
How well does the Scenario support Bowmanville as the dominant urban growth
centre?
ppropriate
housing and employment forms. The corresponding indicators are:
Bowmanville How well does the Scenario support Bowmanville as the dominant urban
centre containing wide range of residential, employment, institutional and cultural uses,
retain small town character and main street centre?
Courtice How well does the Scenario improve and define character, develop Courtice
Main Street as vibrant urban centre?
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Newcastle How well does the Scenario retain village character, retain vibrant
downtown main street with village feel?
Waterfront Places How well does the Scenario support the Waterfront Places as
recreational areas?
How well does the Scenario promote preservation of cultural heritage assets?
7.2 Evaluation Results
Appendix C provides the detailed results of the evaluation. A brief summary of the key findings
is provided below:
The Current Trend Scenario does not meet Provincial and Regional policy. Scenario 1,
Current Trends demonstrates that a continuation of current growth patterns could
result in a pattern which is inconsistent with Provincial and Regional policies. It is also
worth noting that the pattern would not achieve a number of the planning objectives
Growing Durham provides a framework for managing growth. Scenario 2, Growing
Durham demonstrates that there are a number of positive benefits associated with
Growing Durham
and infrastructure (compared to Scenario 1). Scenario 2 provides a desirable framework
Corridors and greenfield areas provides the strategic basis for planning and allocating
future growth in Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle.
Some aspects of Growing Durham are not suitable for Clarington. Some of the
technical planning assumptions which underpin Scenario 2 are unrealistic and could
are uncharacteristically high for Clarington. Using the non-statutory technical
assumptions from Growing Durham could potentially result in overestimating the
amount of residential development potential in Clarington. At the same time, the
density assumptions for some of the intensification areas in Scenario 2 are equally
unrealistic and do not conform with the local character. For example, as noted in the
Intensification Discussion Paper, there is limited potential for intensification and infilling
in Downtown Newcastle, and densities of 75 upgh in this area would be inconsistent
with the community character.
Scenario 3 reconciles the main issues associated with Scenario 1 and 2. Scenario 3 uses
the Growing Durham urban structure as the foundation for allocating growth and
focuses the magnitude of intensification in the strategic places which are physically
capable of absorbing future development Courtice Main Street, Courtice Town Centre
and the Bowmanville West Town Centre and provides a more sensible approach to the
historic areas of Newcastle Village Centre and Bowmanville East Town Centre.
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7.3 Proposed Policy Directions
The following policy directions should be considered preliminary and are subject to the public
engagement and consultation exercise to be undertaken in the next phase of this study.
Generally, it is intended that these policy directions would provide the framework for an
conformity with Provincial and Regional legislation and also aligning the OP with local
aspirations for growth. For illustration
forecast tables have been included in the growth forecast section of the proposed policy
directions. It is understood that the forecasts will need to be adjusted and modified to conform
to the outcomes of the ROPA 128 OMB hearing.
7.3.1
Objectives
Provide a sustainable framework for accommodating growth;
Growing Durham)
Provide opportunities for transit supportive, mixed use, compact development;
Encourage denser development on greenfield areas;
Encourage intensification in strategic locations; and,
Provide opportunities for employment land development;
Make efficient use of existing infrastructure.
Vision
intensification areas and greenfield areas. Intensification areas are intended to provide
opportunities for compact, transit supportive, mixed use development. The main intensification
The greenfield areas will
provide opportunities for walkable, transit supportive residential development. Additionally,
some locations within the greenfield areas, such as portions of the Corridors which are
undeveloped, should also be developed as mixed use areas.
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7.3.2 2031 Growth Forecasts
Population
Table 7.1.
Table 7.1: Clarington Population by Community
Hamlet/
Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Total
Year
31,600 23,200 8,900 17,200 80,900
2006
36,700 24,500 11,100 17,500 89,700
2011
42,900 26,700 13,600 17,600 100,800
2016
50,400 29,300 16,500 17,800 114,100
2021
58,300 32,200 19,100 18,000 127,600
2026
66,400 35,000 20,900 18,100 140,300
2031
34,700 11,800 12,000 900 59,400
Growth
110% 51% 134% 5% 74%
2006-2031
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2010. Note: Population includes net under-coverage.
Employment
Table 7.2
Table 7.2: Employment Forecast by Community
Special
Employment Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Areas Total
2006 8,000 5,300 1,110 3,380 3,150 20,940
2031 16,590 10,170 2,840 3,980 4,850 38,420
Growth (2006-2031) 8,590 4,870 1,730 600 1,700 17,480
107% 92% 155% 17% 54% 83%
% 2006 Employment 38.2% 25.3% 5.3% 16.1% 15.0% 100.0%
% 2031 Employment 43.2% 26.5% 7.4% 10.4% 12.6% 100.0%
Source: Hemson Consulting, March 10, 2010; total is rounded
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7.3.3 2031 Urban Structure
Overall Urban Structure
The m:
Town Centres: Courtice Town Centre, Bowmanville East Town Centre, Bowmanville
West Town Centre, Newcastle Village Centre;
Corridors: Highway 2 (Courtice Main Street), Bloor Street, King Street East, Courtice
Road;
Greenfield Areas (including both future residential and residential areas);
Waterfront Places; and,
Employment Areas.
Urban Areas
Bowmanville and Newcastle. Lands within the urban boundary are either serviced or planned to
be serviced for future development.
Built Boundary
Each urban area has its own unique built boundary. The built boundaries for the three urban
areas have been delineated by the Province of Ontario and shall be used as a mechanism for
tracking and monitoring urban development. Lands within the built boundary are considered to
be intensification areas. Lands outside of the built boundary which are located in the urban
area are considered to be greenfield areas.
7.3.4 Intensification Areas
Intensification Target
2015-2031 is 32%. The overall housing unit
target is planned to be 6,181 units.
Intensification Priorities
The priority areas for intensification development between now and 2031 are as follows:
Courtice Main Street and the Courtice Town Centre;
Bowmanville East Town Centre;
Courtice Road and Bloor Street Corridors.
Other Intensification Areas
areas are either built-out or are subject to committed development. Over the next 20 years
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012 131
intensification. Where appropriate, intensification in other locations should be supported
where the development pattern is generally consistent with the land use compatibility policies
of the official plan.
Density
Generally, the Town Centres will be planned to achieve a long term target of 75 units per gross
hectare. The Newcastle Village Centre will be planned to achieve an overall density target of 40
units per gross hectare. The Corridors will be planned to achieve a long term density target of
60 units per gross hectare. Individual developments within these areas will be assessed in terms
of the site specific density provisions and land use compatibility criteria contained within the
Official Plan.
Intensification Action Plan
Clarington will support and encourage intensification by:
Updating the secondary plans for all Town and Village Centres and Corridors;
Developing an appropriate set of urban design standards and guidelines to ensure that
development is compatible with the surrounding neighbourhoods;
Revise or write new Community Improvement Plans for each Town and Village Centre,
and Corridor;
Prepare a phasing plan; and,
Making strategic investments in public realm and infrastructure improvements in the
Town and Village Centres and Corridors.
Monitoring the Intensification Rate
Clarington will monitor intensification on an annual basis, which is to be calculated as all
housing unit development within the built up area.
7.3.5 Greenfield Areas
Greenfield Target
per gross hectare.
Greenfield Development Phasing Criteria and Strategy
A large portion of greenfield development has already been committed for future
development. However, some of these lands are not serviced and require either local or
regional infrastructure to proceed. In addition to this, there is a large supply of uncommitted
greenfield which are required to meet the Municipality
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132
both the committed and uncommitted lands, there is a need to prepare a phasing strategy
which examines:
Access to existing municipal services;
Access to planned municipal services (i.e. those services which have environmental
assessment approvals in place);
Cost of municipal servicing;
Financial implications of servicing and cost recovery; and,
Options and recommendations for sequencing greenfield development.
Greenfield Development Action Plan
Clarington will support and encourage greenfield development by:
Preparing secondary plans for the priority areas identified above;
Reviewing and revising land use designations in the official plan;
Developing an appropriate set of urban design standards and guidelines for greenfield
areas to ensure that development is transit supportive, well connected and provides for
a variety of housing types;
Preparing a detailed phasing plan;
Updating the density requirements in the Official Plan, including the addition of
minimum density targets;
Identifying opportunities for local centres; and,
Revising land use designations in the Official Plan to allow for mixed use development in
residential areas.
Monitoring Greenfield Development
Clarington will monitor greenfield development on annual basis and track conformity with the
density targets. Where required, the Municipality will update implementing policies in the
Official Plan to ensure conformity with density target.
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GLOSARY OF TERMS
Brownfield: Undeveloped or previously developed properties that may be contaminated. They
are usually, but not exclusively, former industrial or commercial properties that may be
underutilized, derelict or vacant. (Source: Provincial Policy Statement)
Built-up Area: All land within the built boundary. (Source: Places to Grow Growth Plan).
Development located within the Built-up area contributes towards Provincial and Regional
intensification target.
Built Boundary: The limits of the developed area as defined by the Ministry of Public
Infrastructure Renewal (Source: Places to Grow Growth Plan).
Designated Greenfield Area: The Provincial Growth Plan defined Designated Greenfield Areas
nt area that is not a built-
Draft Approved Plans of Subdivision: Represents units which are in Draft Approved Plans of
Subdivision. Draft Approved Plans do not include applications that have been appealed to the
Ontario Municipal Board.
Employment Lands: Lands zoned or designated within settlement areas for employment uses.
These lands may be located outside of a designated employment area. (Source: Places to Grow
Growth Plan)
Employment Lands Employment: Range of employment in industrial type buildings, typically
concentrated in business parks and other designated employment areas. Employment lands
jobs are mainly industrial jobs although a small portion are ancillary commercial and
institutional uses.
Floor Space Index (FSI): FSI is the ratio of gross floor area of a building to its respective lot area.
Greenfield Development: New urban development located in undeveloped lands within a
designated Urban Area that are not within the built-up area.
Greyfield: Previously developed properties that are not contaminated. They are usually, but not
exclusively, former commercial properties that may be underutilized, derelict or vacant.
(Source: Places to Grow Growth Plan)
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134
Gross Density: Ratio of people, jobs or units to a broad land area, excluding significant natural
heritage features (wetlands, coastal wetlands, woodlands, valley lands, areas of natural and
scientific interest, habitat of endangered species and threatened species, wildlife habitat and
fish habitat) and major infrastructurethat is built or approved under the Environmental
Assessment Act (Provincial 400-series highway rights-of-way, hydro corridors, hydro generation
stations and airports). Residential land supply in uncommitted designated Greenfield areas
excludes significant Natural Heritage Features when they are both identified in any applicable
official plan or provincial plan.
Housing Unit: A house, apartment, mobile home, trailer, group of rooms, or single room
occupied or intended for occupancy as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are
classified as a place where the occupants do not live and eat with any other person in the
structure. Simply put, a housing unit is a self-contained living space.
Infill: The term generally refers to small-scale development or redevelopment on vacant or
underused land within Built-Up Areas of existing communities, where infrastructure is already
in place. (Source: Places to Grow Discussion Paper)
Infrastructure: The basic systems and services that a region or organization requires in order to
operate effectively. Infrastructure is typically described in two categories: hard and soft. Hard
infrastructure is traditionally defined as physical structures, such as roads and highways, transit,
airports, ports, water and sewage treatment facilities, schools, hospitals and
telecommunications hardware. Soft infrastructure is traditionally defined as the programs and
services provided in a community, such as skills training, health care and education. (Source:
Places to Grow Discussion Paper)
Intensification: The development of a property, site or area at a higher density than currently
exists through: redevelopment, including reuse of brownfield areas; the development of vacant
and/or underutilized lots within previously developed areas; infill development; or the
expansion or conversion of existing buildings. (Source: Provincial Policy Statement)
Jobs at Fixed Places of Work: Jobs that are associated with a permanent place of work such as
persons working in an office, manufacturing or commercial facility. It is differentiates from jobs
at non-fixed places of work that include persons that work at several locations throughout a
community or broader region such as truck drivers, landscapers, painters, couriers, etc.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012 135
Multi-Modal Transportation System: A transportation system which may include several forms
of transportation such as automobiles, walking, truck, cycling, bus, rapid transit, and rail, air,
marine and pipelines. (Source: Provincial Policy Statement)
Natural Heritage Features (Significant): Natural Heritage features include the following
features: wetlands, coastal wetlands, woodlands, valley lands, areas of significant interest,
habitat if endangered species and threatened species, wildlife habitat, and fish habitat. (Source:
Places to Grow)
Net Density: Ratio of people, jobs or units per buildable hectare, excluding publicly owned
roads, walkways, institutional uses, parks, stormwater management ponds, commercial uses,
etc. For Scenario 3, a 35% of the gross area has been deducted to factor in these elements for
the land supply and scenario calculations for Clarington.
Natural Heritage System: A system of natural core areas and key natural corridors or linkages,
such as rivers and valleys, with significant ecological value. They collectively perform important
ecological functions, such as providing habitat and improving air and water quality. (Source:
Places To Grow)
Population-Related Employment (Non-Basic Jobs) jobs that provide direct services to meet
the personal needs of the population, located in commercial and office areas, in residential
areas (i.e. local plazas, schools), and increasingly, in industrial areas (dependent, in part, on
zoning provisions). Population-related employment is also further sub-divided into commercial
and institutional employment.
Proposed Plans of Subdivision: Represent units in development applications within approved
settlement areas upon which a decision has not been made. In process plans also includes
development applications that have been initially approved but have been appealed to the
Ontario Municipal Board.
Redevelopment: The creation of new residential or non-residential units on previously
developed land in existing communities, including brownfields and greyfields. (Source:
Provincial Policy Statement)
Regional Nodes/Centres: Regional nodes are discrete areas within urban centers that have
compact, mixed-use (residential, commercial, and institutional) development and service the
surrounding areas. They are located within urban centers, are accessible by high order transit,
and a good road network, and exhibit high quality urban design. Source: Shape the Future
(Central Ontario Smart Growth Panel)
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136
Rural Land/Area: Means lands in the rural area which are located outside settlement areas and
which are outside prime agricultural areas. Source: Provincial Policy Statement)
Settlement Areas: Lands designated through the municipal planning process for building or
developmenturban, suburban, or rural. This includes all development, ranging from dense
urban to hamlets and other small residential development. (Source: Places to Grow)
Transit Supportive Uses: They are high pedestrian generators and include medium to high
density residential, small lot single-family, affordable housing, offices, hotels, health care
facilities, medical clinics, high schools and colleges, daycare facilities, cultural institutions,
athletic/recreational and entertainment facilities, health clubs, personal services, retail shops,
restaurants, grocery stores, local pubs, outdoor cafes, financial institutions, dry cleaners,
neighbourhood oriented businesses, etc.
Unbuilt lots on registered plans of subdivision: Considered to be vacant lots in registered
Plans of Subdivision for which a building permit has not been issued and are represented as a
unit count.
Upnh: Units per net hectare: A buildable hectare of residential land, excluding publicly owned
roads, walkways, institutional uses, parks, stormwater management ponds, commercial uses,
etc. A 45% of the gross area has been deducted to factor in these elements. Residential land
supply in uncommitted designated greenfield areas excludes Environmental Protection Areas,
Open Space, Waterfront Greenway and additional provincially significant wetlands, areas of
natural and scientific interest, significant woodlands, regional or locally significant wetlands,
valley lands, and habitat of endangered species and threatened species, wildlife habitat and fish
habitat.
Vacant designated lands:
but do not contain an application for development.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012 137
REFERENCES
AECOM Consulting. Courtice Corridor Servicing Overview, January 26, 2010
AECOM Consulting. Infrastructure Efficiency Related Discussion Points, January 19, 2010
AECOM Consulting. Overview of Existing Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment Facilities
Memorandum, July 10, 2009
AECOM Consulting. Overview of Transportation Studies & Major Infrastructure Related
Initiatives, July 08, 2009.
AECOM Consulting. Oshawa To Bowmanville Rail Service Expansion And Rail Maintenance
Facility Transit Project Assessment Process Environmental Assessment Study.
Environmental Project Report, February 2011.
Canadian Community Housing Corporation. Housing Now Greater Toronto Area, Various
Reports, 2006 to 2009
Canadian Community Housing Corporation. Housing Market Tables
City of Calgary. Transit Oriented Development Best Practices Handbook, 2004
Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Smart Growth/Smart Energy Toolkit
GENIVAR. Courtice Trunk Sanitary Sewer Class Environmental Assessment Study, 2011
HDR|iTrans. Regional Municipality of Durham Long Term Transit Strategy Final Report, March,
2011.
Hemson Consulting Ltd. Clarington Forecast Scenario 1, March 10, 2010
Hemson Consulting Ltd. The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, January 2005
Meridian Planning Consultants Inc. Clarington Commercial Policy Review, May 30, 2005
Metrolinx, The Big Move: Transforming Transportation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton
Area, Draft Regional Transportation Plan, September 2008
Metrolinx. Government of Ontario, Towards Sustainable Transportation, Discussion Paper No.
1, December 2007
Municipality of Clarington, Planning Services Department. 2008 Growth Trends Review
Municipality of Clarington, Planning Services Department. Clarington Building Activity Reports,
2001 to 2008.
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
138
Municipality of Clarington, Planning Services Department. Official Plan Review An
Introductory Paper, April 28, 2008.
Municipality of Clarington, Planning Services Department. Official Plan Review First Phase of
Public Consultation, Staff Report, October 20, 2008.
Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Provincial Policy Statement, 2005
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. The Drake Landing Solar Community Project Early
Results, 2007
Ontario Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal. Built Boundary for the Places to Grow
Growth Plan or the Greater Golden Horseshoe 2006, 2008.
Ontario Ministry of Public Infrastructure and Renewal. Growth Plan for the Greater Golden
Horseshoe, 2006
Ontario Ministry of Transportation. Ministry of Municipal Affairs. Transit-Supportive Land Use
Planning Guidelines, April 1992
Regional Municipality of Durham. Annual Subdivision/Condominium Reports, April 22, 2008
and April 7, 2009.
Regional Municipality of Durham. Growing Durham Working Consolidation of Regional Official
Plan Amendment No. 128 , June 23, 2011.
Region of Waterloo. Visualizing Densities. Part II: Future Possibilities, 2007
Statistics Canada, 2006 Census
Statistics Canada, 2001 & 2006 Community Profiles
UrbanMetrics Inc. Addendum Market Analysis Clarington Commercial Policy Review, May 9,
2005.
Urban Strategies Inc. et all. Growing Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study, 2008.
White, Richard. The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in Historical Perspective.
The Neptis Foundation, 2007
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012 139
Appendices
Growth Management Discussion Paper - May 2012
Appendix A
Methodology for Establishing the Residential and
Employment Land Supply
DƩƚǞƷŷ ağƓğŭĻƒĻƓƷ 5źƭĭǒƭƭźƚƓ tğƦĻƩ Ώ ağǤ ЋЉЊЋ
Appendix A: Methodology for Establishing the Residential and
Employment Land Supply in Greenfields
and employment land supply in greenfields was developed using
a combination of techniques, such as the municipal development inventory; densities
and targets in approved Official Plan; historic housing trends and from meetings with
municipal planners. Spatial information such as mapping, and boundaries of plans
within the development inventory were also obtained from the municipality. Densities
were obtained from the study of the historic trends and the local Official Plan. Our
logy Guideline
document which outlines steps for calculating land supply.
Residential Land Supply
The residential land supply methodology in greenfields was developed using a set of
rules which include the following:
1)Units in the Development Process reflect unbuilt units on registered plans
and draft approved plans as of March 2011. Proposed applications, draft
conceptual plans and preliminary development plans submitted by
developers were excluded from the development inventory used to calculate
the committed lands.
2)Unbuilt lots on registered plans without a building permit prior to March
2011 were included in the supply.
3)Residential land supply excludes long term care facilities, but includes adult
lifestyle developments.
4)Site plan applications were included in the residential land supply.
5)Residential land supply includes designated and approved residential uses.
6)Residential
7)Residential land supply in uncommitted designated greenfield areas excludes
provincially significant wetlands, areas of natural and scientific interest,
significant woodlands (as per municipal Official Plans), regional or locally
significant wetlands (as per municipal Official Plans), valley lands and
waterbodies.
8)The Boundary Expansions approved by the Regional Municipality of Durham,
included in the ROPA 128 were not included in the land supply calculation.
DƩƚǞƷŷ ağƓğŭĻƒĻƓƷ 5źƭĭǒƭƭźƚƓ tğƦĻƩ Ώ ağǤ ЋЉЊЋ
Employment Lands Supply
The employment land supply methodology in greenfields was developed using a set of
rules which include the following:
1)Employment land supply includes designated and approved employment
uses.
2)Employment land supply in uncommitted designated greenfield areas
excludes provincially significant wetlands, areas of natural and scientific
interest, significant woodlands (as per municipal Official Plans), regional or
locally significant wetlands (as per municipal Official Plans), valley lands and
waterbodies.
3)For vacant employment lands, a net to gross factor of 80% is applied to all
parcels of 10 hectares of greater to account for local roads and utilities on
those parcels that will be subdivided before coming to the market.
4)The Boundary Expansions approved by the Regional Municipality of Durham,
included in the ROPA 128 were not included in the land supply calculation.
DƩƚǞƷŷ ağƓğŭĻƒĻƓƷ 5źƭĭǒƭƭźƚƓ tğƦĻƩ Ώ ağǤ ЋЉЊЋ
Appendix B
Hemson Consulting Population and Employment
Projections
DƩƚǞƷŷ ağƓğŭĻƒĻƓƷ 5źƭĭǒƭƭźƚƓ tğƦĻƩ Ώ ağǤ ЋЉЊЋ
ClaringtonCommunity Forecast
tƚƦǒƌğƷźƚƓ ğƓķ 9ƒƦƌƚǤƒĻƓƷ tƩƚƆĻĭƷźƚƓƭ
PREPARED BY
FOR
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
PLANNING SERVICES DEPARTMENT
March 10, 2010
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A. INITIAL MUNICIPALITY-WIDE POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST BASED ON
REGIONS 2031 POPULATION ALLOCATION 2
1. Forecast Population Is Result of Housing Market Share in Clarington 3
2. Allocation to Communities Also Based on Housing Market Shares 4
B. INITIAL MUNICIPALITY-WIDE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST BASED ON REGIONS
2031 EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATION 6
1. Forecast Employment Based on Shares of Major Employment Types Accommodated
Plus Large project Construction Employment 7
2. Allocation to Communities Population and Available Employment Land 9
APPENDIX A Sub-Areas Age Sex Forecast
1
As part of planning for long-term growth, and to assist with the implementation of
the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe and the forthcoming updated
Durham Regional Plan, Hemson Consulting was retained by the Municipality of
Clarington to prepare growth forecasts. The growth forecasts are to be for
population, housing and employment for the entire municipality and for the three
urban communities and the rural area within Clarington.
Two or more scenarios of growth will ultimately be prepared for the Municipality as
part of this process. This memorandum describes Scenario 1, a base case scenario.
This scenario considers how growth would have occurred in the absence of the
specific rules of the Growth Plan. That is, it is a growth forecast reflecting Regional
and local Municipal policies seeking development of a more urban character and
greater levels of intensification. It is not, however, a scenario that necessarily meets
the Growth Plan rules of a minimum greenfield density or 40% intensification within
the built boundary.
The two forthcoming scenarios will be prepared based on a comprehensive review of
the Regions official plan background work and, more importantly, on Claringtons
detailed land supply analysis being undertaken as part of its own official plan review.
This land supply analysis includes an assessment of the intensification potential in
Claringtons three urban communities, and an assessment of employment land,
economic development opportunities and planned land uses in new greenfield areas.
The base case Scenario 1 forecast is provided as starting point for the analysis. As
most planning analysis is iterative it is expected that this Scenario will inform the
Municipalitys official plan analysis which will, in turn, inform the subsequent
forecast work by providing inputs into Scenario 2. A key reason for providing a base
case at the outset is to understand the effects of the policy-based changes to growth
patterns that are envisioned by the Growth Plan and the Region of Durham Official
Plan. In particular, a comparison of Scenario 1 to later growth scenarios that achieve
the Growth Plan targets will assist the Municipality to understand the implications of
shifting from lower density to medium and higher density housing and employment
patterns.
HEMSON
2
A. INITIAL MUNICIPALITY-WIDE POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
BASED ON REGIONS 2031 POPULATION ALLOCATION
Under the Growth Plan, upper-tier municipalities are responsible for allocating the
forecasts provided in Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan to local municipalities. The
population growth forecast for Clarington is based on the Municipality achieving the
Region of Durhams population allocation of 140,000 by 2031.
Three points must be made with respect to the Scenario 1 population forecast:
$
The 2031 forecast allocated to the Municipality is an expression of the total
population, in that it includes an estimate of the census undercount or net
under-coverage. Total population is distinct from the Census population, which
excludes the undercount. Care must always be taken when comparing the two
figures.
$
For the purposes of the Scenario 1 forecast shown here, population levels in
interim years have not been set to precisely match the Regions June 2009 work.
$
Due to the current economic slowdown the actual 2011 population may well fall
short of both the Regions and Hemsons population figure.
The population forecast is shown in Table 1 below.
Table 1
Clarington Population Growth Forecast
Total Growth Compound Region of Durham
Annual Forecast
Growth Rate
1986 35,400 35,400
1991 51,40016,0007.8%51,400
1996 63,00011,6004.1%63,000
2001 72,6009,6002.9%72,600
2006 80,9008,3002.2%80,900
2011 89,7008,7002.1%87,900
2016 100,80011,1002.4%97,100
2021 114,10013,3002.5%108,100
2026 127,60013,5002.2%127,500
2031 140,30012,9001.9%140,300
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Note: Population is total population including Census undercoverage.
HEMSON
3
1. Forecast Population Is Result of Housing Market Share in Clarington
The method for the population forecast is based on the distribution of housing units
by market share across the Region as a whole. A total housing unit forecast is
prepared and then distributed to the local municipalities. Average household sizes
are then applied to each of the unit types; in other words, the forecast new units are
populated to create the overall population forecast. The average households sizes
and how they change over time is based on a Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton
(GTAH)-wide analysis of household formation by age and the shifting age structure
of the population as well as the more local historic trends in Durham and
Clarington.
Generally, the Region of Durham in its Growth Plan conformity work has forecast
more household growth for the same population than our forecasts indicate; the
Region has in effect assumed a lower household size by 2031. As noted above, the
Hemson forecast is based on a GTAH-wide analysis which indicates that the
predominant household type will continue to be families, even if Growth Plan
policies are successful in shifting unit-type preferences of these households from
ground-related forms (single, semi-detached and rowhouse) to apartment forms. The
Clarington household forecast is shown below in Table 2. Table 2 also compares the
forecast to the Regions forecast.
Table 2
Clarington Household Forecast
Hemson ForecastRegion of Durhams
Forecast
Total Growth Annual Average
Total Average
Rate
Households Household Households Household
Size Size
1986 10,900 3.0710,900 3.07
1991 16,400 5,5008.5%2.9816,400 2.98
1996 20,100 3,7004.2%2.9820,100 2.98
2001 23,200 3,1002.9%2.9723,200 2.97
2006 26,900 3,7003.0%2.8726,900 2.87
2011 30,200 3,3002.4%2.8230,200 2.82
2016 34,600 4,4002.8%2.7734,000 2.77
2021 39,900 5,3002.9%2.7239,200 2.72
2026 45,400 5,5002.6%2.6846,600 2.69
2031 50,700 5,3002.2%2.6652,100 2.56
Change 23,8002.6%(0.21)25,200 (0.31)
20062031 (7.3%)(10.8%)
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
The Clarington household forecast is based on the community capturing the shares
of the Durham Region housing market by type shown in Table 3.
HEMSON
4
Table 3
Share of Durham Region Housing Unit Completions by Type
Rows Apartments Total
Single Semi-
Detached Detached
198691 20.2% 6.2%11.1%9.3%17.6%
199196 27.3% 8.0%27.8%3.7%22.7%
199601 19.5% 2.5%17.6%11.0%18.4%
200106 16.6% 0.9%8.6%34.7%16.1%
200611 19.6% 1.0%7.0%32.0%16.9%
201116 18.0% 10.0%15.0%17.0%16.4%
201621 17.5% 10.0%15.5%17.0%16.1%
202126 17.3% 9.0%16.0%17.0%15.9%
202631 17.0% 8.0%16.5%17.0%15.8%
Source: CMHC and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
As can be seen from Table 3, Clarington is forecast to maintain its current market
shares for ground-related housing, and experience slightly declining shares of the
Regional apartment market. With respect to apartments, Clarington currently has a
large share of a very small apartment market in Durham. The Regional market is
forecast to expand in Durham. However, if and when that occurs will in part be the
result of a demand for apartments in Durham communities located close to the
centre of the GTAH rather than in Clarington. By applying the shares to the overall
demand in Durham, Clarington is forecast to experience an increase in apartment
units from about 100 units per year currently to about 160 units per year by 2031.
2. Allocation to Communities Also Based on Housing Market Shares
The allocation of the overall Clarington housing forecast to its local communities is
based on a similar approach. As shown below in Table 4, most of the forecast
housing unit growth in the Municipality is anticipated to occur in the urban areas of
Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle. The communitys rural area, consistent with
both market expectations and generally accepted planning objectives, is not forecast
to accommodate significant growth.
HEMSON
5
Table 4
Share of Clarington Housing Units by Type
Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Total
Single and 200611 50.2%14.9%26.9%8.0% 100 %
Semi 201116 50.5%20.6%24.4%4.5% 100 %
201621 50.0%24.0%21.6%4.4% 100 %
202126 53.5%25.6%16.5%4.4% 100 %
202631 62.3%25.0%9.2%3.5% 100 %
Row 200611 47.0%32.0%21.0%0.0% 100 %
201116 52.0%28.0%20.0%0.0% 100 %
201621 61.0%20.0%19.0%0.0% 100 %
202126 67.0%18.0%15.0%0.0% 100 %
202631 67.5%17.5%15.0%0.0% 100 %
Apartment 91.0%4.0%4.0%1.0% 100 %
200611
79.0%5.0%15.0%1.0% 100 %
201116
201621 74.0%10.0%15.0%1.0% 100 %
202126 69.0%15.0%15.0%1.0% 100 %
202631 69.0%15.0%15.0%1.0% 100 %
Total 200611 56.0%14.9%22.9%6.2% 100 %
201116 55.6%19.3%22.0%3.1% 100 %
201621 55.8%21.0%20.1%3.1% 100 %
202126 58.6%22.4%16.0%3.0% 100 %
202631 64.5%21.7%11.5%2.3% 100 %
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd.
The distribution of the Clarington housing market to the local communities results
in an overall forecast of households by community, which is shown in Table 5 below.
As noted, the population forecast is prepared by applying household size factors by
unit type to the household forecast, resulting in a forecast of population in new units
by community. To this, a small component of non-household population is added
and the resulting figure is adjusted to account for the Census net under coverage.
The total population forecast, by community, is shown in Table 6.
Table 5
Clarington Households by Community
Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Total
2006 10,650 7,3603,0305,860 26,900
2011 12,520 7,8603,8006,060 30,240
2016 14,960 8,7104,7606,200 34,630
2021 17,900 9,7305,9306,360 39,920
2026 21,030 10,8507,0106,520 45,410
2031 24,300 11,9707,8106,640 50,720
Growth 13,650 4,6104,780780 23,820
200631
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
HEMSON
6
Table 6
Clarington Population by Community
Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Total
2006 31,600 23,2008,90017,200 80,900
2011 36,700 24,50011,10017,500 89,700
2016 42,900 26,70013,60017,600 100,800
2021 50,400 29,30016,50017,800 114,100
2026 58,300 32,20019,10018,000 127,600
2031 66,400 35,00020,90018,100 140,300
Growth 34,700 11,80012,000900 59,400
200631 110% 51%134%5% 74%
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Note: The Rural area in this analysis differs from that used by the Region in its
population figures for the Clarington Rural area in ROPA 128. The primary
difference is that Orono is part of the rural area for this analysis, but is part of the
urban area in the Regions work.
Overall, the expectation is for population in Clarington to grow steadily to 2031,
and at a rate consistent with the recent past. Most of the growth is expected to be
focussed in the currently urbanized areas of the Municipality. As discussed in the
next section, a similar outlook is anticipated for employment.
B. INITIAL MUNICIPALITY-WIDE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST BASED ON
REGIONS 2031 EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATION
As with the population forecast, the initial employment forecast is based on the
Region of Durhams allocation of the Growth Plan employment forecasts to the local
municipalities and we have not set the allocation to precisely meet the interim years
of the Regions June 2009 forecasts. Also, due to the current economic slowdown the
2011 actual employment may well differ significantly from the both the Regions and
Hemsons forecast. However, the slowdown should be considered to be a medium-
term cyclical phenomenon that does not affect the long-term forecasts.
The employment forecast for Clarington is summarized below in Table 7. The
employment forecast is based on permanent employment. The approximately 3,500
temporary construction jobs expected to be associated with the new nuclear power
facility are treated separately for the forecast. These jobs are also not considered for
.
comparison to the Regional numbers
HEMSON
7
Table 7
Clarington Employment Growth Forecast
(Excluding Temporary Large Project Construction Employment, 200631)
Total Growth Compound Annual
Growth Rate
1986 14,200
1991 15,200900 1.3%
1996 13,700(1,400)(1.9%)
2001 17,6003,900 5.1%
2006 20,9003,400 3.6%
2011 23,7002,8002.5%
2016 27,1003,4002.7%
2021 31,3004,1002.9%
2026 35,0003,7002.3%
2031 38,4003,5001.9%
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Note: While the temporary large project construction employment, largely related
to the New Nuclear at Darlington project, is excluded in this table for the
purposes of the forecast, the construction employment for the original
Darlington plant is included in the historical data. The completion of
Darlington in the early 1990s was the major reason for the employment
decline shown in the 199196 period.
1. Forecast Employment Based on Shares of Major Employment Types
Accommodated Plus Large Project Construction Employment
The forecast employment for the municipality of Clarington is based on three major
land use planning types: major office, population-related and employment land
:
employment
$
Major office employment, defined as employment in free-standing office
1
buildings of 20,000 sq.ft. or greater;
$
Population-related employment, defined as employment that provides
services to a resident population in retail and institutional establishments,
including those who work from home; and
1
For employment forecasting and most land-use planning purposes, major offices are traditionally
defined as freestanding office buildings greater than 20,000 net sq. ft. in size. The uses the
Growth Plan
same expression major office for a different purpose. In the , major office policies
Growth Plan
2
address the desire to locate office buildings of 10,000 m or greater in transit-oriented locations to
encourage greater transit use. Except as otherwise noted, this reports use of major office is the 20,000
sq.ft. or more definition.
HEMSON
8
$
Employment land employment, which is the range of employment uses in
industrial-type buildings, typically concentrated in business parks and other
designated employment areas. Despite the many different economic sectors
found on employment land, most are accommodated within single-storey
industrial boxes or industrial multiples.
Among these three types, it is primarily the last employment land employment
for which there is the strongest competition within the GTAH, and where land use
planning and local economic development policy can have the strongest influence
on the amount of new investment that is captured. Major offices develop at very
high densities and are not constrained by land supply, and growth in population-
related employment is driven largely by growth in local and regional population. It
occurs mainly in existing locations and through the normal course of secondary
planning for new residential communities.
The overall employment forecast, and the forecast of employment by major land use
type along with the Temporary Large Project Construction employment is shown in
Tables 8 and 9.
Table 8
Clarington Employment by Type by Component
(Excluding Temporary Large Project Construction Employment, 200631)
Major Population-Related Employment Employment Lands Total
Office
Usual Work at No Fixed
Total Usual No Fixed Total Emp.
Emp.
Home Lands
Place of Place of Work Pop. Place of Place of
Work Work
Allocated to Related Work
Pop. Rel. Emp.
Allocated to
Emp. Lands
2006 350 7,120 2,450 49010,0608,4902,040 10,530 20,940
2011 380 7,860 2,720 55011,1309,9002,310 12,220 23,730
2016 560 8,900 3,050 63012,59011,3402,650 13,990 27,140
2021 810 10,160 3,460 73014,34013,0803,050 16,130 31,270
2026 940 11,470 3,860 82016,14014,4703,410 17,880 34,970
2031 1,100 12,710 4,250 92017,88015,7203,720 19,440 38,420
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
HEMSON
9
Table 9
Clarington Employment by Type
Major Population-Employment Temporary Total
Office Lands
Related Large Project
Employment Construction
2006 350 10,06010,530n/a 20,940
2011 380 11,13012,220400 24,130
2016 560 12,59013,9903,500 30,640
2021 810 14,34016,1303,500 34,770
2026 940 16,14017,8800 34,970
2031 1,100 17,88019,4400 38,420
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Note: The Temporary Large Project Construction numbers are taken from OPGs New
Nuclear at Darlington information pamphlet which indicates 400 jobs during the
two year site preparation stage and then a peak of 3,500 construction jobs during a
six to eight year construction phase. In the table above it is assumed that the two
year period is 201112 and the eight year period is 20132021. This is for the first
set of units. Should a second set be built in the 2020s, the construction
employment would continue through that period.
2. Allocation to Communities Based Population and Available Employment Land
Give that the location of employment growth is driven primarily by the availability
of well-located greenfield employment land to accommodate industrial-type
buildings, as well as the overall rate of population growth, the allocation of
employment to the various communities within Clarington is based on the local
population forecast and the locally available employment land supply. The
employment land supply by community is summarized in Table 10 below.
The following assumptions are made for the employment forecast:
$
As the employment distribution exercise is complicated by the presence of a
number of large scale uses such as St. Marys Cement, the Energy from Waste
facility and Darlington and the Darlington expansion, these special facilities are
excluded from the urban employment land supply analysis. They are also
treated, collectively, as a special area for employment allocation and distinct
from the employment in the three communities and the rural area.
$
The employment land supply is net of any areas designated for environmental
use and lands required for the expansion of Highway 407.
$
A net to gross factor of 80% is applied to all parcels of 10 hectares or greater to
account for local roads and utilities in those parcels that will be subdivided
before coming to market.
HEMSON
10
$
The calculated employment density on the occupied urban employment lands is
estimated at 30.5 employees per net ha. This estimate is rounded to 30
employees per net ha to calculate employment capacity on existing designated
lands. After adjusting for the different treatment of employees with no fixed
place of work, the 30 employees per net ha figure is very close to the Regions
estimated employment density of 25 employees per net ha.
$
As noted above, the employment density used for the calculations in the table
reflects the separate treatment of the large single-use facilities, that is the 30
employees per net ha is the estimated employment density of normal urban
employment land development. This differs from the much lower density used
by the Region in the Growing Durham work which appears to include both the
large single-use facilities and the other employment.
Following the employment land supply, Table 11 shows the summary employment
forecast by community, including a special areas category to address large users
within each of the communities.
Table 10
Urban Employment Land Supply by Community
Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Total
Occupied (ha) 921158 214
Vacant (ha) 16236825 555
Total (ha) 25448333 770
Net Effective Supply, less 10% 22943529 693
(ha)
Employment Density (emp/ha) 303030 30
Employment Capacity (emp.) 6,87013,040880 20,780
Employment 2031 5,3205,240650 12,210
Share of Capacity Used 77%40%74% 59%
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on Municipality of Clarington data.
Notes: The occupied employment land excludes the existing Darlington nuclear site, the
Energy from Waste site and the St. Marys Cement facility, none of which are
consider employment land for this analysis.
urban
The vacant land supply is net of any environmental areas and lands required for
the Highway 407 link. Parcels of 10 ha are larger are reduced to 80% of area to
represent net lands after future subdivision of lands to account for local roads and
utilities.
HEMSON
11
Table 11
Clarington Employment by Community
Bowmanville Courtice Newcastle Rural Special Areas Total
(including
Temporary Large
Project
Construction)
2006 8,000 5,3001,1103,3803,150 20,940
2011 9,280 6,0501,4303,5703,800 24,130
2016 11,010 6,9201,7803,6707,260 30,640
2021 12,980 8,1002,2103,7907,690 34,770
2026 14,790 9,1702,5703,8904,540 34,970
2031 16,590 10,1702,8403,9804,850 38,420
Growth 8,590 4,8701,7306001,700 17,480
200631 107% 92%155%17%54% 83%
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Overall, employment in the Municipality of Clarington is anticipated to grow
steadily and with a pattern that reflects overall population growth, the available
supply of employment land and our judgement on the outlook for some of the large
special users in each community. In the context of the GTAH, Clarington is forecast
to accommodate fairly modest growth in both population and employment. As part
of the next steps in the study process, however, additional forecast scenarios will be
prepared to test different assumptions about the future, including shifts in the type,
location and amount of growth within Clarington.
HEMSON
APPENDIX A
S-AASF
UBREAS GE EX ORECAST
HEMSON
Municialit of Clarinton
pyg
20062006AgeAgeStructureStructure
2006 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total40,410 40,500 80,910
90+90+
0 - 42,510 2,350 4,860
80808484
5 - 92,950 2,930 5,880
10 - 143,570 3,410 6,980
70707474
15 - 193,310 2,980 6,290
20 - 242,320 2,270 4,590
60606464
25 - 292,340 2,260 4,600
30 - 342,730 2,710 5,440
50505454
35 - 393,020 3,330 6,350
FemaleFemale
40 - 444,040 4,120 8,160
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 493,470 3,240 6,710
50 - 542,610 2,540 5,150
30303434
55 - 592,170 2,170 4,340
20202424
60 - 641,650 1,670 3,320
65 - 691,150 1,270 2,420
10101414
70 - 741,030 1,040 2,070
75 - 79780 950 1,730
0044
80 - 84490 700 1,190
85-89200 380 580
5005001,0001,0001,5001,5002,0002,0002,5002,5003,0003,0003,5003,5004,0004,0004,5004,500
90+70 180 250
alit of Clarinton
Municipyg
20112011AgeAgeStructureStructure
2011 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total44,650 45,010 89,660
90+90+
0 - 42,540 2,370 4,910
80808484
5 - 92,860 2,710 5,570
10 - 143,250 3,120 6,370
70707474
15 - 193,780 3,450 7,230
20 - 24-3190,2870,6060,
20 24 3190 2870 6060
6064
6064
25 - 292,850 2,860 5,710
30 - 343,010 2,960 5,970
5054
35 - 392,980 3,090 6,070
Female
40 - 443,150 3,490 6,640
4044
Male
45 - 494,030 4,220 8,250
3034
50 - 543,540 3,330 6,870
55 - 592,630 2,680 5,310
2024
60 - 642,160 2,270 4,430
65 - 691,620 1,740 3,360
1014
70 - 741,150 1,250 2,400
75 - 79900 1,000 1,900
04
80 - 84610 840 1,450
85-89290 530 820
5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
90+110 230 340
Municipality of Clarington
2016AgeStructure
2016 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total49,990 50,740 100,730
90+
0 - 42,930 2,730 5,660
8084
5 - 93,000 2,850 5,850
10 - 143,250 2,950 6,200
7074
15 - 193,530 3,180 6,710
20 - 243,640 3,320 6,960
6064
25 - 293,900 3,650 7,550
30 - 343,740 3,800 7,540
5054
35 - 393,350 3,450 6,800
Female
40 - 443,160 3,300 6,460
4044
Male
45 - 493,150 3,640 6,790
50 - 544,120 4,340 8,460
3034
55 - 593,570 3,490 7,060
60 - 642,640 2,820 5,460 2024
65 - 692,120 2,390 4,510
1014
70 - 741,610 1,710 3,320
75 - 791,030 1,210 2,240
04
80 - 84720 920 1,640
85-89370 680 1,050
5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
90+160 310 470
HEMSON
Municialit of Clarinton
pyg
20212021AgeAgeStructureStructure
2021 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total56,460 57,550 114,010
90+90+
0 - 43,540 3,290 6,830
80808484
5 - 93,460 3,290 6,750
10 - 143,470 3,140 6,610
70707474
15 - 193,580 3,020 6,600
20 - 243,360 2,990 6,350
60606464
25 - 294,490 4,250 8,740
30 - 344,970 4,770 9,740
50505454
35 - 394,150 4,390 8,540
FemaleFemale
40 - 443,570 3,720 7,290
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 493,170 3,470 6,640
50 - 543,300 3,780 7,080
30303434
55 - 594,180 4,550 8,730
20202424
60 - 643,580 3,680 7,260
65 - 692,610 2,950 5,560
10101414
70 - 742,110 2,340 4,450
75 - 791,430 1,650 3,080
0044
80 - 84830 1,130 1,960
85-89430 760 1,190
1,0001,0002,0002,0003,0003,0004,0004,0005,0005,0006,0006,000
90+230 380 610
alit of Clarinton
Municipyg
20262026AgeAgeStructureStructure
e Structure
2026 Ag
MaleFemaleTotal
Total63,010 64,550 127,560
90+90+
0 - 44,000 3,730 7,730
80808484
5 - 94,050 3,840 7,890
10 - 143,930 3,580 7,510
70707474
15 - 193,800 3,210 7,010
20 - 243,410 2,850 6,260
60606464
25 - 294,200 3,940 8,140
30 - 345,540 5,350 10,890
5054
35 - 395,370 5,350 10,720
Female
40 - 444,360 4,640 9,000
4044
Male
45 - 493,590 3,890 7,480
50 - 543,320 3,630 6,950
3034
55 - 593,370 4,000 7,370
2024
60 - 644,170 4,710 8,880
65 - 693,510 3,790 7,300
1014
70 - 742,570 2,880 5,450
75 - 791,880 2,240 4,120
04
80 - 841,150 1,540 2,690
85-89510 930 1,440
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000
90+280 450 730
Municipality of Clarington
2031AgeStructure
2031 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total69,150 71,220 140,370
90+
0 - 44,190 3,920 8,110
8084
5 - 94,520 4,290 8,810
10 - 144,520 4,130 8,650
7074
15 - 194,260 3,650 7,910
20 - 243,640 3,040 6,680
6064
25 - 294,230 3,760 7,990
30 - 345,220 5,010 10,230
5054
35 - 395,920 5,920 11,840
Female
40 - 445,570 5,610 11,180
4044
Male
45 - 494,380 4,810 9,190
50 - 543,730 4,040 7,770
3034
55 - 593,380 3,830 7,210
2024
60 - 643,370 4,160 7,530
65 - 694,080 4,790 8,870
1014
70 - 743,390 3,670 7,060
75 - 792,260 2,730 4,990
04
80 - 841,470 2,060 3,530
85-89690 1,260 1,950
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000
90+330 540 870
HEMSON
Bomanville
2006200620062006200620062006AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2006 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total15,650 15,960 31,610
90+90+90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 41,120 1,050 2,170
8080808080808084848484848484
5 - 91,260 1,240 2,500
10 - 141,360 1,290 2,650
7070707070707074747474747474
1-11,211,2,2
5 9 ,0 ,080 ,90
15 19 1210 1080 2290
20 - 24890 930 1,820
606060606060646464646464
25 - 291,180 1,150 2,330
30 - 341,290 1,290 2,580
505050505050545454545454
35 - 391,270 1,400 2,670
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 441,510 1,550 3,060
404040404040444444444444
MaleMaleMaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 491,230 1,120 2,350
50 - 54880 890 1,770
303030303030343434343434
55 - 59710 740 1,450
202020202020242424242424
60 - 64540 560 1,100
65 - 69350 420 770
101010101010141414141414
70 - 74330 350 680
75 - 79250 380 630
000000444444
80 - 84170 280 450
80 84170280450
85-8980 170 250
2002002002002004004004004004006006006006006008008008008008001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,2001,2001,2001,2001,2001,4001,4001,4001,4001,4001,6001,6001,6001,6001,6001,8001,8001,8001,8001,800
90+20 70 90
Bomanville
20112011201120112011AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2011 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total18,140 18,520 36,660
90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 41,220 1,140 2,360
80808080808484848484
5 - 91,320 1,250 2,570
10 - 141,480 1,350 2,830
70707070707474747474
15 - 191,510 1,330 2,840
--,,,
20 241,1601,0302,190
20 24 1160 1030 2190
60606060606464646464
25 - 291,290 1,400 2,690
30 - 341,630 1,580 3,210
5050505054545454
35 - 391,400 1,460 2,860
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 441,310 1,490 2,800
4040404044444444
MaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 491,490 1,600 3,090
50 - 541,260 1,150 2,410
3030303034343434
55 - 59870 930 1,800
2020202024242424
60 - 64690 810 1,500
65 - 69520 590 1,110
1010101014141414
70 - 74350 430 780
75 - 79300 360 660
00004444
80 - 84210 350 560
85-89110 190 300
8589110190300
2002002002004004004004006006006006008008008008001,0001,0001,0001,0001,2001,2001,2001,2001,4001,4001,4001,4001,6001,6001,6001,6001,8001,8001,8001,800
90+20 80 100
Bomanville
201620162016AgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructure
2016 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total21,240 21,680 42,920
90+90+90+
0 - 41,420 1,340 2,760
808080848484
5 - 91,510 1,420 2,930
10 - 141,640 1,400 3,040
707070747474
15 - 191,710 1,430 3,140
20 - 241,460 1,280 2,740
6064
60606464
-,,,
25 - 29154015203060
25 29 1540 1520 3060
30 - 341,770 1,860 3,630
50505454
35 - 391,740 1,820 3,560
FemaleFemale
40 - 441,530 1,630 3,160
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 491,320 1,590 2,910
50 - 541,570 1,670 3,240
30303434
55 - 591,260 1,210 2,470
20202424
60 - 64850 1,030 1,880
65 - 69670 840 1,510
10101414
70 - 74500 600 1,100
75 - 79340 420 760
0044
80 - 84250 320 570
85-89130 230 360
2002004004006006008008001,0001,0001,2001,2001,4001,4001,6001,6001,8001,8002,0002,000
90+30 70 100
HEMSON
Bomanville
2021202120212021202120212021AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2021 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total24,910 25,470 50,380
90+90+90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 41,670 1,570 3,240
8080808080808084848484848484
5 - 91,760 1,670 3,430
10 - 141,890 1,590 3,480
7070707070707074747474747474
-,,,
15 19 1,900 1,490 3,390
15 19 1900 1490 3390
20 - 241,650 1,360 3,010
606060606060646464646464
25 - 291,930 1,880 3,810
30 - 342,130 2,070 4,200
505050505050545454545454
35 - 391,910 2,140 4,050
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 441,880 2,020 3,900
404040404040444444444444
MaleMaleMaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 491,530 1,750 3,280
50 - 541,420 1,670 3,090
303030303030343434343434
55 - 591,570 1,740 3,310
202020202020242424242424
60 - 641,240 1,330 2,570
65 - 69830 1,070 1,900
101010101010141414141414
70 - 74650 850 1,500
75 - 79470 590 1,060
000000444444
80 - 84290 390 680
80 84290390680
85-89150 210 360
5005005005005001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,5002,5002,5002,5002,500
90+40 80 120
Bomanville
20262026202620262026AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2026 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total28,780 29,500 58,280
90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 41,880 1,770 3,650
80808080808484848484
5 - 92,020 1,910 3,930
10 - 142,150 1,840 3,990
70707070707474747474
15 - 192,160 1,690 3,850
--,,,
20 24185014403290
20 24 1850 1440 3290
60606060606464646464
25 - 292,110 1,960 4,070
30 - 342,520 2,420 4,940
5050505054545454
35 - 392,270 2,370 4,640
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 442,060 2,350 4,410
4040404044444444
MaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 491,900 2,150 4,050
50 - 541,640 1,850 3,490
3030303034343434
55 - 591,440 1,760 3,200
2020202024242424
60 - 641,550 1,860 3,410
65 - 691,200 1,370 2,570
1010101014141414
70 - 74810 1,070 1,880
75 - 79610 820 1,430
00004444
80 - 84390 540 930
85-89170 260 430
5005005005001,0001,0001,0001,0001,5001,5001,5001,5002,0002,0002,0002,0002,5002,5002,5002,5003,0003,0003,0003,000
90+50 70 120
Bomanville
203120312031AgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructure
2031 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total32,740 33,610 66,350
90+90+90+
0 - 42,060 1,950 4,010
808080848484
5 - 92,250 2,120 4,370
10 - 142,400 2,070 4,470
707070747474
15 - 192,420 1,940 4,360
20 - 242,120 1,650 3,770
6064
60606464
-,,,
25 - 29232020304350
25 29 2320 2030 4350
30 - 342,700 2,490 5,190
50505454
35 - 392,660 2,740 5,400
FemaleFemale
40 - 442,430 2,580 5,010
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 492,090 2,490 4,580
50 - 542,010 2,260 4,270
30303434
55 - 591,670 1,950 3,620
20202424
60 - 641,430 1,870 3,300
65 - 691,510 1,890 3,400
10101414
70 - 741,160 1,350 2,510
75 - 79730 1,020 1,750
0044
80 - 84480 740 1,220
85-89230 380 610
5005001,0001,0001,5001,5002,0002,0002,5002,5003,0003,000
90+70 90 160
HEMSON
Courtice
2006200620062006200620062006AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2006 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total11,500 11,650 23,150
90+90+90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 4750 690 1,440
8080808080808084848484848484
5 - 9890 880 1,770
10 - 141,140 1,150 2,290
7070707070707074747474747474
1-121,
5 9 980 90 ,900
15 19 980 920 1900
20 - 24640 610 1,250
606060606060646464646464
25 - 29590 590 1,180
30 - 34760 780 1,540
505050505050545454545454
35 - 39930 1,070 2,000
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 441,290 1,310 2,600
404040404040444444444444
MaleMaleMaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 491,060 1,020 2,080
50 - 54730 700 1,430
303030303030343434343434
55 - 59580 590 1,170
202020202020242424242424
60 - 64390 400 790
65 - 69270 280 550
101010101010141414141414
70 - 74220 230 450
75 - 79140 160 300
000000444444
80 - 8490 150 240
80 8490150240
85-8940 80 120
2002002002002004004004004004006006006006006008008008008008001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,2001,2001,2001,2001,2001,4001,4001,4001,4001,400
90+10 40 50
Courtice
20112011201120112011AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2011 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total12,100 12,330 24,430
90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 4650 610 1,260
80808080808484848484
5 - 9750 720 1,470
10 - 14890 900 1,790
70707070707474747474
15 - 191,130 1,140 2,270
--,
20 249608901,850
20 24 960 890 1850
6064
6060606064646464
25 - 29730 690 1,420
30 - 34680 700 1,380
5050505054545454
35 - 39800 810 1,610
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44910 1,050 1,960
404040444444
4044
MaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 491,270 1,300 2,570
50 - 541,040 1,010 2,050
3030303034343434
55 - 59710 700 1,410
60 - 64560 580 1,140 2020202024242424
65 - 69380 400 780
1010101014141414
70 - 74260 270 530
75 - 79180 220 400
00004444
80 - 84110 150 260
85-8960 130 190
858960130190
20020020020040040040040060060060060080080080080010001,0001,0001,00012001,2001,2001,20014001,4001,4001,400
90+30 60 90
Courtice
201620162016AgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructure
2016 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total13,120 13,520 26,640
90+90+90+
0 - 4740 660 1,400
808080848484
5 - 9670 660 1,330
10 - 14750 750 1,500
707070747474
15 - 19880 870 1,750
20 - 241,070 1,070 2,140
606060646464
-,,,
25 - 29121011202330
25 29 1210 1120 2330
30 - 34980 1,000 1,980
50505454
35 - 39790 770 1,560
FemaleFemale
40 - 44750 780 1,530
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 49870 1,030 1,900
50 - 541,230 1,280 2,510
30303434
55 - 591,020 1,020 2,040
60 - 64700 720 1,420 20202424
65 - 69550 610 1,160
10101414
70 - 74390 390 780
75 - 79230 280 510
0044
80 - 84160 240 400
85-8980 170 250
2002004004006006008008001,0001,0001,2001,2001,4001,400
90+50 100 150
HEMSON
Courtice
2021202120212021202120212021AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2021 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total14,340 14,950 29,290
90+90+90+90+90+90+
90+
0 - 4940 850 1,790
8080808080808084848484848484
5 - 9750 730 1,480
10 - 14660 710 1,370
7070707070707074747474747474
-,
15 19 740 720 1,460
15 19 740 720 1460
20 - 24810 780 1,590
606060606060646464646464
25 - 291,360 1,330 2,690
30 - 341,500 1,480 2,980
505050505050545454545454
35 - 391,110 1,090 2,200
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44740 740 1,480
404040404040444444444444
MaleMaleMaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49710 750 1,460
50 - 54840 1,010 1,850
303030303030343434343434
55 - 591,210 1,300 2,510
202020202020242424242424
60 - 641,000 1,040 2,040
65 - 69690 750 1,440
101010101010141414141414
70 - 74560 590 1,150
75 - 79340 400 740
000000444444
80 - 84200 300 500
80 84200300500
85-89110 250 360
2002002002002004004004004004006006006006006008008008008008001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,2001,2001,2001,2001,2001,4001,4001,4001,4001,4001,6001,6001,6001,6001,600
90+70 130 200
Courtice
20262026202620262026AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2026 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total15,710 16,470 32,180
90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 41,120 1,020 2,140
80808080808484848484
5 - 9950 920 1,870
10 - 14740 780 1,520
70707070707474747474
15 - 19650 670 1,320
--,
20 246606301290
20 24 660 630 1290
6060606064646464
6064
25 - 291,120 1,070 2,190
30 - 341,670 1,710 3,380
5050505054545454
35 - 391,640 1,570 3,210
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 441,060 1,040 2,100
404040444444
4044
MaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49700 710 1,410
50 - 54680 730 1,410
3030303034343434
55 - 59830 1,030 1,860
60 - 641,190 1,310 2,500 2020202024242424
65 - 69990 1,070 2,060
1010101014141414
70 - 74690 730 1,420
75 - 79490 590 1,080
00004444
80 - 84290 410 700
85-89140 300 440
20020020020040040040040060060060060080080080080010001,0001,0001,00012001,2001,2001,20014001,4001,4001,40016001,6001,6001,60018001,8001,8001,800
90+100 180 280
Courtice
203120312031AgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructure
2031 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total17,020 18,000 35,020
90+90+90+
0 - 41,180 1,070 2,250
808080848484
5 - 91,140 1,100 2,240
10 - 14950 970 1,920
707070747474
15 - 19730 740 1,470
20 - 24570 580 1,150
606060646464
-,
25 - 299909301920
25 29 990 930 1920
30 - 341,450 1,470 2,920
50505454
35 - 391,810 1,810 3,620
FemaleFemale
40 - 441,580 1,530 3,110
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 491,010 1,020 2,030
50 - 54670 690 1,360
30303434
55 - 59670 760 1,430
60 - 64820 1,050 1,870 20202424
65 - 691,170 1,340 2,510
10101414
70 - 74970 1,030 2,000
75 - 79600 710 1,310
0044
80 - 84400 580 980
85-89190 400 590
2002004004006006008008001,0001,0001,2001,2001,4001,4001,6001,6001,8001,8002,0002,000
90+120 220 340
HEMSON
Newcastle
2006200620062006200620062006AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2006 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total4,460 4,470 8,930
90+90+90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 4280 260 540
8080808080808084848484848484
5 - 9290 290 580
10 - 14370 330 700
7070707070707074747474747474
1-12
5 9 360 30 680
15 19 360 320 680
20 - 24240 220 460
606060606060646464646464
25 - 29210 200 410
30 - 34280 270 550
505050505050545454545454
35 - 39320 340 660
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44420 420 840
404040404040444444444444
MaleMaleMaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49370 360 730
50 - 54300 290 590
303030303030343434343434
55 - 59240 250 490
202020202020242424242424
60 - 64190 200 390
65 - 69140 190 330
101010101010141414141414
70 - 74180 150 330
75 - 79130 160 290
000000444444
80 - 8490 130 220
80 8490130220
85-8940 60 100
5050505050100100100100100150150150150150200200200200200250250250250250300300300300300350350350350350400400400400400450450450450450
90+10 30 40
Newcastle
20112011201120112011AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2011 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total5,520 5,560 11,080
90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 4340 310 650
80808080808484848484
5 - 9400 370 770
10 - 14340 330 670
70707070707474747474
15 - 19410 340 750
--
20 24340330670
20 24 340 330 670
6064
6060606064646464
25 - 29330 290 620
30 - 34350 340 690
5050505054545454
35 - 39370 420 790
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44390 390 780
404040444444
4044
MaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49450 480 930
50 - 54410 420 830
3030303034343434
55 - 59360 390 750
60 - 64300 280 580 2020202024242424
65 - 69220 260 480
1010101014141414
70 - 74190 190 380
75 - 79150 140 290
00004444
80 - 84100 140 240
85-8940 100 140
858940100140
100100100100200200200200300300300300400400400400500500500500600600600600
90+30 40 70
Newcastle
201620162016AgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructure
2016 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total6,770 6,810 13,580
90+90+90+
0 - 4420 390 810
808080848484
5 - 9480 440 920
10 - 14460 410 870
707070747474
15 - 19390 340 730
20 - 24400 340 740
606060646464
-
25 - 29450410860
25 29 450 410 860
30 - 34500 450 950
50505454
35 - 39460 500 960
FemaleFemale
40 - 44450 480 930
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 49420 460 880
50 - 54500 550 1,050
30303434
55 - 59480 520 1,000
60 - 64420 420 840 20202424
65 - 69320 350 670
10101414
70 - 74260 260 520
75 - 79160 180 340
0044
80 - 84110 120 230
85-8950 120 170
100100200200300300400400500500600600
90+40 70 110
HEMSON
Newcastle
2021202120212021202120212021AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2021 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total8,260 8,280 16,540
90+90+90+90+90+90+
90+
0 - 4520 480 1,000
8080808080808084848484848484
5 - 9580 530 1,110
10 - 14550 490 1,040
7070707070707074747474747474
-
15 19 520 420 940
15 19 520 420 940
20 - 24370 340 710
606060606060646464646464
25 - 29520 440 960
30 - 34640 600 1,240
505050505050545454545454
35 - 39620 650 1,270
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44560 580 1,140
404040404040444444444444
MaleMaleMaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49500 550 1,050
50 - 54490 540 1,030
303030303030343434343434
55 - 59580 670 1,250
202020202020242424242424
60 - 64550 560 1,110
65 - 69450 500 950
101010101010141414141414
70 - 74370 340 710
75 - 79220 240 460
000000444444
80 - 84120 160 280
80 84120160280
85-8950 110 160
100100100100100200200200200200300300300300300400400400400400500500500500500600600600600600700700700700700800800800800800
90+50 80 130
Newcastle
20262026202620262026AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2026 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total9,520 9,580 19,100
90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 4560 520 1,080
80808080808484848484
5 - 9650 600 1,250
10 - 14640 580 1,220
70707070707474747474
15 - 19600 500 1,100
--
20 24500420920
20 24 500 420 920
6060606064646464
6064
25 - 29480 430 910
30 - 34680 600 1,280
5050505054545454
35 - 39750 760 1,510
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44700 710 1,410
404040444444
4044
MaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49590 640 1,230
50 - 54550 620 1,170
3030303034343434
55 - 59550 640 1,190
60 - 64630 700 1,330 2020202024242424
65 - 69560 620 1,180
1010101014141414
70 - 74480 480 960
75 - 79320 320 640
00004444
80 - 84170 220 390
85-8960 140 200
100100100100200200200200300300300300400400400400500500500500600600600600700700700700800800800800
90+50 80 130
Newcastle
203120312031AgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructure
2031 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total10,410 10,520 20,930
90+90+90+
0 - 4540 510 1,050
808080848484
5 - 9660 610 1,270
10 - 14700 640 1,340
707070747474
15 - 19680 580 1,260
20 - 24590 500 1,090
606060646464
-,
25 - 295804801060
25 29 580 480 1060
30 - 34590 540 1,130
50505454
35 - 39760 710 1,470
FemaleFemale
40 - 44800 810 1,610
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 49730 750 1,480
50 - 54630 690 1,320
30303434
55 - 59590 690 1,280
60 - 64580 660 1,240 20202424
65 - 69630 740 1,370
10101414
70 - 74560 600 1,160
75 - 79410 450 860
0044
80 - 84240 290 530
85-8990 180 270
100100200200300300400400500500600600700700800800900900
90+50 90 140
HEMSON
Rural
2006200620062006200620062006AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2006 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total8,790 8,410 17,200
90+90+90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 4360 340 700
8080808080808084848484848484
5 - 9510 510 1,020
10 - 14710 640 1,350
7070707070707074747474747474
1-11,41
5 9 760 650 ,0
15 19 760 650 1410
20 - 24540 510 1,050
606060606060646464646464
25 - 29360 320 680
30 - 34400 370 770
505050505050545454545454
35 - 39500 530 1,030
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44820 830 1,650
404040404040444444444444
MaleMaleMaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49810 750 1,560
50 - 54700 660 1,360
303030303030343434343434
55 - 59630 600 1,230
202020202020242424242424
60 - 64530 510 1,040
65 - 69390 380 770
101010101010141414141414
70 - 74310 310 620
75 - 79260 240 500
000000444444
80 - 84130 150 280
80 84130150280
85-8950 70 120
100100100100100200200200200200300300300300300400400400400400500500500500500600600600600600700700700700700800800800800800900900900900900
90+20 40 60
Rural
20112011201120112011AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2011 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total8,890 8,600 17,490
90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 4330 310 640
80808080808484848484
5 - 9390 370 760
10 - 14540 540 1,080
70707070707474747474
15 - 19730 640 1,370
--,
20 247306201,350
20 24 730 620 1350
6064
6060606064646464
25 - 29500 480 980
30 - 34350 340 690
5050505054545454
35 - 39410 400 810
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44540 560 1,100
404040444444
4044
MaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49820 840 1,660
50 - 54830 750 1,580
3030303034343434
55 - 59690 660 1,350
60 - 64610 600 1,210 2020202024242424
65 - 69500 490 990
1010101014141414
70 - 74350 360 710
75 - 79270 280 550
00004444
80 - 84190 200 390
85-8980 110 190
858980110190
100100100100200200200200300300300300400400400400500500500500600600600600700700700700800800800800900900900900
90+30 50 80
Rural
201620162016AgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructure
2016 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total8,860 8,730 17,590
90+90+90+
0 - 4350 340 690
808080848484
5 - 9340 330 670
10 - 14400 390 790
707070747474
15 - 19550 540 1,090
20 - 24710 630 1,340
606060646464
-,
25 - 297006001300
25 29 700 600 1300
30 - 34490 490 980
50505454
35 - 39360 360 720
FemaleFemale
40 - 44430 410 840
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 49540 560 1,100
50 - 54820 840 1,660
30303434
55 - 59810 740 1,550
60 - 64670 650 1,320 20202424
65 - 69580 590 1,170
10101414
70 - 74460 460 920
75 - 79300 330 630
0044
80 - 84200 240 440
85-89110 160 270
100100200200300300400400500500600600700700800800900900
90+40 70 110
HEMSON
Rural
2021202120212021202120212021AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2021 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total8,950 8,850 17,800
90+90+90+90+90+90+
90+
0 - 4410 390 800
8080808080808084848484848484
5 - 9370 360 730
10 - 14370 350 720
7070707070707074747474747474
-
15 19 420 390 810
15 19 420 390 810
20 - 24530 510 1,040
606060606060646464646464
25 - 29680 600 1,280
30 - 34700 620 1,320
505050505050545454545454
35 - 39510 510 1,020
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44390 380 770
404040404040444444444444
MaleMaleMaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49430 420 850
50 - 54550 560 1,110
303030303030343434343434
55 - 59820 840 1,660
202020202020242424242424
60 - 64790 750 1,540
65 - 69640 630 1,270
101010101010141414141414
70 - 74530 560 1,090
75 - 79400 420 820
000000444444
80 - 84220 280 500
80 84220280500
85-89120 190 310
100100100100100200200200200200300300300300300400400400400400500500500500500600600600600600700700700700700800800800800800900900900900900
90+70 90 160
Rural
20262026202620262026AgeAgeAgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructureStructureStructure
2026 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total9,000 9,000 18,000
90+90+90+90+90+
0 - 4440 420 860
80808080808484848484
5 - 9430 410 840
10 - 14400 380 780
70707070707474747474
15 - 19390 350 740
--
20 24400360760
20 24 400 360 760
6060606064646464
6064
25 - 29490 480 970
30 - 34670 620 1,290
5050505054545454
35 - 39710 650 1,360
FemaleFemaleFemaleFemale
40 - 44540 540 1,080
404040444444
4044
MaleMaleMaleMale
45 - 49400 390 790
50 - 54450 430 880
3030303034343434
55 - 59550 570 1,120
60 - 64800 840 1,640 2020202024242424
65 - 69760 730 1,490
1010101014141414
70 - 74590 600 1,190
75 - 79460 510 970
00004444
80 - 84300 370 670
85-89140 230 370
100100100100200200200200300300300300400400400400500500500500600600600600700700700700800800800800900900900900
90+80 120 200
Rural
203120312031AgeAgeAgeStructureStructureStructure
2031 Ae Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
Total8,980 9,090 18,070
90+90+90+
0 - 4410 390 800
808080848484
5 - 9470 460 930
10 - 14470 450 920
707070747474
15 - 19430 390 820
20 - 24360 310 670
606060646464
-
25 - 29340320660
25 29 340 320 660
30 - 34480 510 990
50505454
35 - 39690 660 1,350
FemaleFemale
40 - 44760 690 1,450
40404444
MaleMale
45 - 49550 550 1,100
50 - 54420 400 820
30303434
55 - 59450 430 880
60 - 64540 580 1,120 20202424
65 - 69770 820 1,590
10101414
70 - 74700 690 1,390
75 - 79520 550 1,070
0044
80 - 84350 450 800
85-89180 300 480
100100200200300300400400500500600600700700800800900900
90+90 140 230
HEMSON
Appendix C
Scenario Evaluation Results
DƩƚǞƷŷ ağƓğŭĻƒĻƓƷ 5źƭĭǒƭƭźƚƓ tğƦĻƩ Ώ ağǤ ЋЉЊЋ
Growth Scenario Evaluation Table
Indicator Evaluation Measure Scenario 1 Current Trend Scenario 2 Growing Durham Scenario 3 Reinforcing Communities
and Retaining Local Character
Principle 1: Create complete, healthy and sustainable communities
How well does the Scenario support Meets 140,340 population, 52,120 Generally meets the population, Meets the population, households Meets the population, households
ROPA 128 population, employment and households and 38,420 jobs households and jobs projections by and jobs projections by 2031 and jobs projections by 2031
household targets? projections by 2031 2031, but uses the Hemson forecast
which is slightly different than the
Regional forecast.
How well does the Scenario support Achieves the 32% intensification Scenario does not achieve the 32% Scenario is planned to achieve the Scenario is planned to achieve the
opportunities for residential target from ROPA 128 (intensification target. Achieves only 32% (6,181 units) residential 32% (6,181 units) residential
# of
intensification? intensification units)16% residential intensification (3,091 intensification target intensification target
units)
Consistent with the recommendations
The density assumptions for some of Focuses intensification on selected
of the Intensification Discussion Paper
Does not align well with the the intensification areas may not be Regional centres (Courtice Town
recommendations of the compatible with local character Centre and Bowmanville West Town
Intensification Discussion Paper Centre) and corridors
Requires approximately 6 gross Requires approximately 50 gross
hectares of uncommitted land for hectares of uncommitted
intensification intensification land
How well does the Scenario support the Scenario supports dense, mixed use, This Scenario continues the current This Scenario has the highest This Scenario has the second highest
Places to Grow vision for complete communities that are trends of development. It does not densities and the most varied unit densities. It supports dense, mixed,
growth? transit supportive support Places to Grow vision for mix. It supports Places to Grow complete communities that are
growth, as majority of new policies to create dense, mixed, transit supportive. It Promotes the
Requires Urban Area Boundary
development would be low density complete communities that are compact urban development in three
expansion
transit supportive. It Promotes the main communities
Will not meet the 50 people and jobs
compact urban development in three
per hectare density target for Has potential to meet the 50 people
main communities
greenfields and jobs per hectare density target
Has potential to meet the 50 people for greenfields
Scenario 1 is planned to achieve a
and jobs per hectare density target
municipal wide density on Scenario 3 is planned to achieve a
for greenfields
uncommitted greenfield lands of 16 municipal wide uncommitted
units per gross hectare The projected future household greenfield density of 19 units per
growth is allocated within the current gross hectare
This Scenario needs more Greenfield
urban boundary and also requires two
lands to accommodate the projected The projected future household
urban boundary expansions to
demand and it requires lands beyond growth is allocated within the current
accommodate mis-matches in the
the urban boundary urban boundary
land supply
Requires approximately 807 gross Requires approximately 480 gross
Indicator Evaluation Measure Scenario 1 Current Trend Scenario 2 Growing Durham Scenario 3 Reinforcing Communities
and Retaining Local Character
hectares of uncommitted Greenfield hectares of uncommitted Greenfield
land to accommodate projected land to accommodate projected
growth and only 6 gross hectares of growth and 50 gross hectares of
uncommitted intensification land uncommitted intensification land
How well does the Scenario conform to Focus on compact form and Does not conform to the PPS as the Conforms to the PPS as the Conforms to the PPS as the
the Provincial Policy Statement? settlement patterns development is not compact development is compact and is development is compact and is
focused on Regional centres and focused on strategic places within
Directs growth to fully-serviced This Scenario needs more Greenfield
corridors Regional centres and corridors
settlement areas and makes efficient lands to accommodate the projected
use of existing infrastructure demand and it requires lands beyond The projected future household The projected future household
the urban boundary growth is allocated to fully serviced growth is allocated to fully serviced
settlement areas settlement areas
How well does the Scenario provide a Estimated housing mix The majority of new development in Provides more Scenarios for medium Provides the most Scenarios for
range of housing choices? (low/medium/high) greenfields is in the form of single and and high density development with medium and high density
semi-detached homes with the the following housing mix on development and considers the
following housing mix: greenfields: community character. It has the
following housing mix on greenfields:
79% Low density (singles, semi); 70% Low density (singles, semi);
68% Low density (singles, semi);
9% Medium (towns and 20% Medium (towns and
multiples); and, multiples); and, 24% Medium (towns and
multiples); and,
11% High (apartments) 10% High (apartments)
8% High (apartments)
How well does the Scenario promote Potential to offer opportunities to Less potential to support pedestrian Has potential to support pedestrian Has potential to support pedestrian
healthy, active living? improve access to recreational oriented community design oriented community design, specially oriented community design, specially
facilities, public spaces, trails, parks, in the Regional Centres and Corridors in the Regional Centres and Corridors
and sports facilities
Potential to support pedestrian
oriented community design
How well does the Scenario match Matches forecasted housing and All Scenarios match forecasted housing and employment growth
growth with projected demand? employment growth
Indicator Evaluation Measure Scenario 1 Current Trend Scenario 2 Growing Durham Scenario 3 Reinforcing Communities
and Retaining Local Character
Principle 2: Protect provincial and local natural heritage system including agriculture
How well does the Scenario protect Impact on Open Space System Protects Clar
(Environmental Protection Areas, system. All the designated natural system. All the designated natural system. All the designated natural
Green Spaces, Natural Core Areas or heritage areas in the Official Plan are heritage areas in the Official Plan are heritage areas in the Official Plan are
Waterfront Greenway) within or protected protected protected
immediately adjacent to new
Larger portion of development is Most of the greenfield development Greenfield development is directed to
Greenfield development
immediately adjacent to the natural is directed to those located next to those located next to the built areas
heritage system the built areas
How well does the Scenario maintain and High level estimation of watersheds A number of watersheds may be Has potential for lesser effects on Has potential for lesser effects on
improve watershed health? affected by urban expansion and affected by greenfield development, watersheds as development is the watersheds as development is
major intensification particularly in North Bowmanville most compact of the three Scenarios compact and directed to greenfields
and directed to greenfields located located next to the existing built areas
next to the existing built areas
How well does the Scenario protect Estimated area of agricultural land Has potential to take additional Allocates growth within current urban Allocates growth within current urban
current agricultural areas? lost to new urban land and/or agricultural lands from production areas, thus protecting agricultural areas, thus protecting agricultural
Greenfield development areas outside the urban boundary areas outside the urban boundary
Principle 3: Attain balanced growth, where residential growth will complement employment growth
How well does the Scenario provide for Potential to accommodate trends, by N/D Has potential to accommodate projected employment numbers and sector trends
projected employment numbers and sector growth
sector trends?
How well does the Scenario provide for Location of growth relative to existing N/D Employment areas are located close to the major transportation infrastructure
employment areas in close proximity to transportation infrastructure (i.e. 401,
support infrastructure? 407 Link, future GO stations in
Courtice and Bowmanville)
How well does the Scenario provide for Location of economic growth relative N/D Has potential to accommodate projected employment numbers
to residential growth
economic perspective?
Does the Scenario provide an adequate Potential to meet number and type of N/D Has potential to accommodate projected employment numbers and type of jobs
number of quality jobs? jobs projected
Indicator Evaluation Measure Scenario 1 Current Trend Scenario 2 Growing Durham Scenario 3 Reinforcing Communities
and Retaining Local Character
Principle 4: Support transit and use infrastructure efficiently
How well does the Scenario direct Potential to maximize benefits from Locate a significant proportion of Locate most of the growth in areas Locate most of the growth in areas
growth to locations with appropriate existing investments in facilities and growth in areas with no servicing, that can be serviced in the mid and that can be serviced in the mid term
levels of infrastructure and public service services transportation or facilities. long term
Has potential to locate higher level of
facilities?
Ability to use existing water, Has potential to locate higher level of growth where servicing capacity is
wastewater and transportation growth where servicing capacity is planned
systems planned
Directs higher level of growth to
Potential to locate higher level of Directs higher level of growth to Regional corridors and centre, where
growth where servicing capacity is Regional corridors and centre, where servicing capacity is more likely to be
planned servicing capacity is more likely to be planned in a timely manner, however,
planned in a timely manner, however this scenario focuses the magnitude
some of these areas have limited of intensification in the strategic
potential for the level of places which are physically capable of
intensification assumed (i.e. absorbing future development
Downtown Newcastle and (Courtice Main Street, Courtice Town
Bowmanville East Town Centre) Centre and Bowmanville West Town
Centre)
How well does the Scenario support a Potential to support a land use Densities, unit mix and development Higher densities, more diverse unit Densities, unit mix and development
range of transportation choices? pattern, density and mix of uses that directed to greenfield areas does not mix and development directed to directed to selected areas within
ansit centres, corridors and Greenfields centres and corridors and Greenfields
Strategy Strategy, public transit and commuter located next to the built area support located next to the built area support
rail pid Transit Strategy,
Potential to support public transit and
public transit and commuter rail public transit and commuter rail
other alternative transportation
modes, including cycling and walking
Potential to support commuter rail -
level of development occurring close
to the proposed commuter GO train
corridor
How well does the Scenario support Potential to provide a land use system Scenario does not support transit Support transit supportive densities Support transit supportive densities
transit supportive densities and/or a integrated with transit Scenarios. supportive densities or centres and
Based on percentage of high, development development but focused on strategic
development? medium, and low density areas
development in areas with
established transit services
Potential to improve access to
existing transit, child care spaces,
Indicator Evaluation Measure Scenario 1 Current Trend Scenario 2 Growing Durham Scenario 3 Reinforcing Communities
and Retaining Local Character
social housing, and nursing homes
Does the Scenario support closer live-Concentration of population/ Has less potential for live-work Has more potential for live-work Has more potential for live-work
work connections? three connection as densities are lower, connections in centres and corridors connections in centres and corridors
largest communities development is spread out and has and greenfields as they will have a and greenfields as they will have a
minimal intensification compact form. Intensification areas compact form
Qualitative assessment of impact of
have more potential for mix uses
intensification opportunities
How well can the Scenario be serviced Relative proximity of residents to Residents will be located away from Residents will be located in greater Residents will be located in greater
using existing and potential future transit existing and future transit existing and future transit proximity to existing and future proximity to existing and future
systems? opportunities opportunities transit opportunities transit opportunities
How well does the Scenario support Potential to maximize benefits from Lower potential to maximize benefits Greater potential to maximize Greater potential to maximize
fiscal health and sustainability? existing investments in facilities and from existing investments in facilities benefits from existing investments in benefits from existing investments
in
services and services as most of the grow is facilities and services as growth is facilities and services as growth is
located in greenfield development focused in centres and corridors and focused in centres and corridors and
and is spread out across all the vacant in greenfields located in the proximity in greenfields located in the proximity
areas to the built area. to the built area.
Principle 5: Direct growth to corridors and mixed use centres
How well does the Scenario direct Degree of growth (people and units) Minimal growth is directed to the Growth focused on Regional centres Growth focused on strategic locations
growth to the Regional Centres and directed to the regional centres and regional centres and corridors and corridors, however the density within Regional centres (Courtice
Corridors? corridors assumptions for some of the Town Centre and Bowmanville West
intensification areas are unrealistic Town Centre) and corridors. A large
and do not conform with the local portion of the corridor-related growth
character is planned to be accommodated
within the Courtice Main Street
Corridor
Principle 6: Direct most growth to urban areas
How well does the Scenario direct most Degree of growth (people and units) Development requires all the vacant Development is directed within the Development is directed within the
growth to urban areas? directed within the urban areas Greenfields plus additional lands urban areas and requires additional urban areas and also identifies land
beyond the urban areas lands for urban boundary expansions for long term land needs
Principle 7: Maintain Bowmanville as the dominant urban centre
How well does the Scenario support Degree of growth targeted to N/D Most of the potential growth is targeted to Bowmanville
Bowmanville as the dominant urban Bowmanville
growth centre?
Indicator Evaluation Measure Scenario 1 Current Trend Scenario 2 Growing Durham Scenario 3 Reinforcing Communities
and Retaining Local Character
y through choice appropriate housing and employment forms
Bowmanville How well does the Potential to support Bowmanville Scenario will result in a significant Densities assumptions for greenfields Densities assumptions for greenfields
Scenario support Bowmanville as the character, identity and role as are uncharacteristically high for are more realistic and retain
dominant urban centre containing wide dominant urban centre area, with low density subdivisions in Bowmanville. Similarly, the density
range of residential, employment, the fringe of the urban area. This assumptions for some of the and main street centre.
institutional and cultural uses, retain intensification areas are equally
Focuses intensification in the strategic
small town character and main street unrealistic and do not conform with
places which are physically capable of
centre? the local character
absorbing future development (i.e.
Bowmanville West Town Centre)
while provides a more sensible
approach to the historic area of
Bowmanville East Town Centre
Courtice How well does the Scenario Degree of growth directed to Courtice Scenario will result in a significant Densities assumptions for greenfields Densities assumptions for greenfields
improve and define character, develop are uncharacteristically high for are more realistic and retain
Degree of growth, densities and unit
Courtice Main Street as vibrant urban with low density greenfield Courtice. Similarly, the density
mix directed to Courtice Main Street
centre? development in the fringe of the assumptions for some of the
Focuses intensification in the strategic
urban area. Limited potential to intensification areas are equally
places which are physically capable of
support Courtice Main Street as a unrealistic and do not conform with
absorbing future development such
vibrant urban centre the local character
as Courtice Main Street and Courtice
Town Centre
Newcastle How well does the Scenario Degree of growth directed to Scenario will result in a significant Densities assumptions for greenfields Densities assumptions for greenfields
retain village character, retain vibrant Newcastle are uncharacteristically high for are more realistic and retain
downtown main street with village feel? with low density subdivisions in the Newcastle. Similarly, the density
Degree of intensification directed to
fringe of the urban area. This type of assumptions for some of the
Newcastle Focuses intensification in the strategic
intensification areas are equally
places which are physically capable of
village feel unrealistic and do not conform to the
absorbing future development in
local character. Potential for
Courtice and Bowmanville while
intensification and infilling is limited
provides a more sensible approach to
in Downtown Newcastle
the historic area of Newcastle
Waterfront Places How well does the Degree of growth directed to the N/D Minimal growth directed to the Waterfront Places as most of these are either built-out or subject to committed
Scenario support the Waterfront Places Waterfront Places development
as recreational areas?
How well does the Scenario promote N/D protection of individual built heritage feature will be similar between all three land use Scenarios. Provincial and local
preservation of cultural heritage assets? cultural heritage assets policies will be applied to the selected Scenario
Principle 8: Maintain each community's individual identity through choice appropriate housing and employment forms
Bowmanville — How well does the
Scenario support Bowmanville as the
dominant urban centre containing wide
range of residential, employment,
institutional and cultural uses, retain
small town character and main street
centre?
Courtice — How well does the Scenario
improve and define character, develop
Courtice Main Street as vibrant urban
centre?
Newcastle — How well does the Scenario
retain village character, retain vibrant
downtown main street with village feel?
Waterfront Places — How well does the
Scenario support the Waterfront Places
as recreational areas?
How well does the Scenario promote
preservation of cultural heritage assets?
• Potential to support Bowmanville
character, identity and role as
dominant urban centre
•
• Scenario will result in a significant
expansion of Bowmanville's built
area, with low density subdivisions in
the fringe of the urban area. This
type of growth won't support
Bowmanville's main street centre
Degree of growth directed to Courtice •
Degree of growth, densities and unit
mix directed to Courtice Main Street
Degree of growth directed to
Newcastle
Degree of intensification directed to
Newcastle
• Degree of growth directed to the
Waterfront Places
• Potential to protect Clarington's
cultural heritage assets
Scenario will result in a significant
expansion of Courtice's built area,
with low density greenfield
development in the fringe of the
urban area. Limited potential to
support Courtice Main Street as a
vibrant urban centre
• Scenario will result in a significant
expansion of Newcastle's built area,
with low density subdivisions in the
fringe of the urban area. This type of
growth won't support Newcastle's
village feel
• Densities assumptions for greenfields
are uncharacteristically high for
Bowmanville. Similarly, the density
assumptions for some of the
intensification areas are equally
unrealistic and do not conform with
the local character
• Densities assumptions for greenfields
are uncharacteristically high for
Courtice. Similarly, the density
assumptions for some of the
intensification areas are equally
unrealistic and do not conform with
the local character
• Densities assumptions for greenfields
are uncharacteristically high for
Newcastle. Similarly, the density
assumptions for some of the
intensification areas are equally
unrealistic and do not conform to the
local character. Potential for
intensification and infilling is limited
in Downtown Newcastle
• Densities assumptions for greenfields
are more realistic and retain
Bowmanville's small town character
and main street centre.
• Focuses intensification in the strategic
places which are physically capable of
absorbing future development (i.e.
Bowmanville West Town Centre)
while provides a more sensible
approach to the historic area of
Bowmanville East Town Centre
• Densities assumptions for greenfields
are more realistic and retain
Courtice's character.
• Focuses intensification in the strategic
places which are physically capable of
absorbing future development such
as Courtice Main Street and Courtice
Town Centre
• Densities assumptions for greenfields
are more realistic and retain
Newcastle's character.
• Focuses intensification in the strategic
places which are physically capable of
absorbing future development in
Courtice and Bowmanville while
provides a more sensible approach to
the historic area of Newcastle
• N/D — Minimal growth directed to the Waterfront Places as most of these are either built -out or subject to committed
development
• N/D — protection of individual built heritage feature will be similar between all three land use Scenarios. Provincial and local
policies will be applied to the selected Scenario