HomeMy WebLinkAboutFND-002-12 Clarftwn REPORT
FINANCE
Meeting: SPECIAL GENERAL PURPOSE AND ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE
Date: January 27, 2012 Resolution#: 604- —1 By-law#:
Report#: FND-002-12 File#:
Subject: 2013 TO 2016 OPERATING AND CAPITAL FORECAST
RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee
recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report FND-002-12 be received for information.
Submitted by: ' ' Reviewed by:
ancy a or, AA, CA. Franklin Wu,
Director of Finance/ Chief Administrative Officer
Treasurer
NT/LG/hjl
CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L1C 3A6 T 905-623-3379
REPORT NO.: FND-002-12 PAGE 2
OVERVIEW
1.0 This report presents a high level view of the 2013 to 2016 operating and capital
forecast budget. It is an aid provided to Council for decision making and as a
general guide to prepare for the next four years.
1.1 The maximum total budget years that are permitted under the Municipal Act,
2001, S. 291, is five years. Therefore, the 2012 budget was circulated with a
separate report and binder and the 2013 to 2016 forecast budget is presented
here with the attached schedules.
1.2 a) The attached Schedule 1 is a summary of the 2013 to 2016 budget
providing estimated tax levy increases.
b) The 2013 to 2016 budget forecast impact is illustrated for the Reserve
Funds and Reserves on Schedules 2 and 3.
c) The summarized capital expenditures and funding sources for the budget
forecast are on Schedule 4.
1.3 Many factors come into play when dealing with multi-year future budgets. There
is a great deal of uncertainty, particular when dealing with an overall five year
budget window. There are also some rules pertaining to election years when
dealing with multi-year budgets. Due to that uncertainty, rather than adopt the
future year budgets, it is recommended simply that the forecast be received for
information.
1.4 As Council is keenly aware, there was significant economic uncertainty for the fall
of 2009 and 2010 year. This has had an impact on the forecast as we have tried
to incorporate the slow economic recovery into some of the cost drivers and
implications on revenues that may be experienced. This is reflected in the
assumptions underlying the forecast information provided.
ASSUMPTIONS
2.0 A forecast extending out to the end of 2016 cannot be provided without an
extensive number of assumptions that are critical to understanding what is
driving the end result.
REPORT NO.: FND-002-12 PAGE 3
2.1 Many of the significant assumptions pertaining to reserves and reserve funds are
as follows:
a) The 2013 to 2016 development charges rates are calculated using an estimated
annual indexing percentage applied on January 1St of each year of 3.5% for 2013
to 2016 due to economic conditions and estimated slow economic recovery.
b) It is assumed for purposes of this analysis that there will be no phase in or
significant change in the non-residential development charges quantum and
residential development charges is at its full rate per the Development Charges
Background Study, June 2010.
c) The number of residential units in each year that translate into development
charges collections is estimated at 540 for 2013 and 2014 with an estimated
increase of 600 for 2015 and 2016. This is a conservative approach to reflect a
slow housing recovery and differs from the Development Charges Background
Study, June 2010 growth forecast.
d) Interest earned in all reserve funds is calculated on the balances in those reserve
funds as of October 2011. This may vary over the forecast time frame,
particularly in those reserve funds not being replenished at the same rate they
are being drawn upon.
e) The estimated interest rate used for predicting available reserve fund balances
for capital financing is estimated at 1.50% for 2013 and escalates to 2.0% by
2016. This may also vary significantly and will have an impact upon the timing of
capital works.
f) Those reserve funds that generate contributions were assumed to continue to do
so on a fairly static basis. We are not able to predict at this time any greater level
of certainty.
g) Some reserve funds required increased tax levy contributions or new tax levy
contributions in order to fund future required capital obligations..
h) The reliance on the rate stabilization reserve fund to stabilize the tax levy was
used over the forecast period.
2.2 Significant capital fund assumptions are as follows:
a) The reserves and reserve funds will continue to be a significant source of
financing for the capital programs and the capital projects are therefore deferred
REPORT NO.: FND-002-12 PAGE 4
in particular years where shortfalls were occurring until such a time as the costs
can be supported by that reserve or reserve fund.
b) It was assumed that no new debt will be undertaken during the forecast period
beyond that already identified.
c) Due to the shrinkage in income in the reserve funds due to economic conditions
and interest rate implications, the capital fund required additional tax levy
support, even with deferral of projects. As a result, it was assumed that an
increase in tax levy support for capital was approved annually. If this is not
undertaken, the forecast projects that can be accomplished would be significantly
impacted.
d) The capital forecast includes only the tangible capital assets in accordance with
PSAB 3150 legislation. The non-tangible capital projects that were previously
included in the capital budget have been transferred to operating effective the
2011 budget.
e) The full amount of any federal gas tax funding has been applied to the capital
budget. No other capital grants were included as none are predicted at this time.
2.3 Significant operating budget assumptions are as follows:
a) Inflation is assumed at approximately 3% for most general operating expenses.
b) Education retained declines until 2014 when the provincial target rate of 1.26% is
reached for the education tax rate. (This target rate is adjusted annually with
property reassessments).
c) While the Newcastle Fire Hall is expected be constructed during 2013, the
forecast time period incorporates only staffing as further analysis of additional
costs are required in this area and will be reported to Council at a later date.
There is an estimated reduction in the part-time firefighter budget subsequent to
the facility opening.
d) No significant changes in staffing models or service levels have been
incorporated. Any changes to the Municipality's operating structure would have
an impact upon the future budgets. The status quo was necessary in order to
create a base forecast.
REPORT NO.: FND-002-12 PAGE 5
e) The staffing forecasts provided by the department heads and reviewed by the
CAO at the 2012 budget educational session held November 25, 2011, have
been spread over the 2013 to 2016 years. Any decisions made by Council
pertaining to staffing will have a direct impact upon each future forecast year.
f) For the existing staff complement, continuing percentage increases have been
applied consistent with the average of prior years' experience. This has the
potential to vary greatly as the contracts are up for renewal effective January 1,
2012 and has a direct affect over the forecast period.
g) Employee benefit increases are assumed at 8% per annum. Again, this has the
potential to vary greatly due to their unpredictable nature.
h) Assessment growth is assumed at 2% for 2013 to 2016.
i) Revenues are assumed to increase modestly over the forecast period.
2.4 Listed above are the significant assumptions only. Each department would have
made a series of assumptions embedded into each of their budget submissions
for the forecast period. It is crucial to keep in mind that many of the above
assumptions are very sensitive and therefore have a significant impact upon the
end result. It is important to reiterate that the forecast is provided for information
purposes only.
OVERALL RESULTS
3.0 Based on the above assumptions, overall tax levy increases are predicted as
follows: 2013 — 5.23%, 2014 — 4.58%, 2015 — 3.46% and 2016 — 3.16% with an
overall average of 4.11%. It is important to note that the forecast does not take
the place of the Municipality's annual budget exercise. Each year, the current
budget undergoes a great deal of scrutiny by the CAO as well as many iterations
within each department.
3.1 It is also important to note that upper levels of government and other outside
influences can create a very unpredictable environment for municipalities. As
mentioned above, we have assumed the status quo generally throughout the
forecasting exercise. In order for Council to assess the trends occurring, staff
have transitioned some expenses over time to build in the tax levy impact (ie
winter control) but have not otherwise made service cuts etc to achieve any
desired outcome.
CONCLUSION
REPORT NO.: FND-002-12 PAGE 6
4.0 It is the goal of staff that the forecast provided will provide a "big picture"
perspective to Council of future cost pressures within each department and assist
as a guiding document for decision making purposes. The fulsome annual
budget exercise will take place each year whereby annual pressures are
reevaluated and resulting decisions made. This will hopefully assist Council in a
general way in the coming years in assessing service levels and public demands
versus affordability to the taxpayer.
CONFORMITY WITH STRATEGIC PLAN —
The recommendations contained in this report conform to the general intent of the
following priorities of the Strategic Plan:
_ Promoting economic development
X Maintaining financial stability
_ Connecting Clarington
_ Promoting green initiatives
Investing in infrastructure
_ Showcasing our community
Not in conformity with Strategic Plan
Staff Contact: Nancy Taylor, Director of Finance/Treasurer
Attachments:
Schedule 1 — 2013 to 2016 Forecast
Schedule 2 — 2013 to 2016 Reserve Funds
Schedule 3 - 2013 to 2016 Reserves
Schedule 4 - 2013 to 2016 Capital Expenditure and Funding Summary
Schedule 1
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
2013 to 2016 FORECAST
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
DESCRIPTION BUDGET BUDGET BUDGET BUDGET BUDGET
NON-DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS (13,865,485) (12,407,640) (12,557,330) (12,370,652) (12,305,326)
MAYOR & COUNCIL 863,818 892,563 918,785 943,485 969,271
ADMINISTRATOR'S OFFICE 443,184 500,943 518,302 530,491 543,138
LEGAL ADMIN 368,592 465,554 476,390 487,480 497,131
CORPORATE SERVICES 3,958,031 4,341,875 4,532,757 4,754,339 4,900,333
CLERK'S 1,791,045 1,947,811 2,396,347 2,146,953 2,290,306
FINANCE & UNCLASSIFIED ADMIN 2,719,178 3,060,048 3,269,777 3,362,313 3,498,792
EMERGENCY SERVICES - FIRE 9,374,443 10,704,047 11,306,188 11,944,872 12,685,513
ENGINEERING SERVICES 2,246,797 2,356,071 2,447,718 2,576,568 2,670,745
OPERATIONS 12,270,831 12,575,153 12,776,576 13,121,435 13,434,044
COMMUNITY SERVICES 8,266,083 8,869,361 9,037,054 9,288,257 9,395,070
PLANNING SERVICES 2,627,539 2,911,492 3,059,469 3,094,838 3,195,439
LEVIES 1,746,346 0 0 0 0
LIBRARIES 2,768,272 2,841,988 2,940,930 3,024,704 3,129,851
MUSEUMS &ARTS 437,865 447,706 460,958 474,607 488,665
EXTERNAL AGENCIES 288,382 285,957 292,057 297,657 304,157
CURRENT NET LEVY REQUIRED 36,884,980 39,792,929 41.,875,978 43,677,346 45,697,131
LESS:
ASSESSMENT GROWTH (995,356) (820,200) (880,200) (950,100) (980,100)
BASE TAX LEVY (37,789,416) (40,740,816) (43,692,929) (46,575,978) 49,135,632)
ADD:
TAX SUPPORT TO CAPITAL 3,855,836 3,900,000 4,700,000 5,458,286 5,973,286
TAX LEVY INCREASE REQUIRED $ 1,956,044 2,131,913 2,002,849 1,609,554 1,554,684
TAX LEVY INCREASE REQUIRED % 5.18%1 5.23% 4.58%1 3.46%1 3.16%
AVERAGE OVER FOUR YEAR FORECAST 4.11%
NOTE: 2012 TOTAL CURRENT NET LEVY REQUIRED includes new positions
(full time staff and students) $639,200.
RESERVE FUNDS
2013
FORECAST BUDGET
January 6,2012
ACC.#
NAME
2012
2013
BALANCE
E X PE N D I T U R E S
Contributions
Estimated
Transfer
Estimated
(Estimated)
FUND
(Estimated)
BALANCE
CAPITAL
OPERATING
From General Interest Earned
Btwn F
Revenues
2013
NAME
GENERAL
502
INDUSTRIAL/ECO.DEVELOPMENT
392,306
1
(42,5500)'
50,000
5,254
405,060
INDUST/ECO.DEVMT
511
MUNICIPAL CAPITAL WORKS
4,655,783
(713,704)
(2,000)1
310,000
65,516
161,704
4,477,299
MUN. CAP.WORKS
515
DEBENTURE RETIREMENT
213,563
'.' (32,969)!
3,132
35,000
218,726
DEBENTURE RETIREMNT
528
512
IMPACT/ESCROW
GENERAL MUNICIPAL
1,069,481
1,963,809
(325,000)
(200,000)1
49,200
16,429
23,168
600,000
1,085,910
2,111,177
IMPACT/ESCROW
GENERAL MUNICIPAL
554
RATE STABILIZATION
3,375,804
(850,000)1
-
66,290
2,592,094
RATE STABILIZATION
521
COMPUTER EQUIPMENT
604,039
(235,000)
100,000
11,684
480,723
COMPUTER EQUIPMENT
12,274,786
Sub-Total General
i
11,370,990
Sub Total
537
CLARINGTON/REGION STN.A ACC.
-i
10,114
693,122
CLAR/REGION STN.A
683,008
CLERK'S
i
501
PARKING LOT
339,953
(184,308)1
5,348
160,000
320,993
PARKING LOT
523
ANIMAL SERVICES CAPITAL
113,187
'
7,000
1,617
121,804
ANIMAL SERVICES CAPITAL
new
CLERK FLEET
5,000
'.,
5,000
10,000
CLERK FLEET
FIRE
522
FIRE EQUIPMENT
1,585,387
- .(1,600,000)
-. (10,000)
600,000
20,292
30,000
625,679
FIRE EQUIPMENT
ENGINEERING
503
513
ROADS CAPITAL
ENGINEERING&INSPECTION
25,677
2,167,980
,.._(305,000).
5,563
33,657
300,000
31,240
2,196,637
ROADS CAPITAL
ENGIN&INSPECTION
514
ROADS CONTRIBUTIONS
1,057,131
(161,486)
1
-
23,798
919,443
ROADS CONTRIB"NS
517
ENGINEERING PARKS CAPITAL
946,070
(65,000)
_1
16,246
897,316
ENG.PARKS CAPITAL
520
CEMETERIES CAPITAL
1,551
127
1,678
CEMETERIES CAPITAL
557
FEDERAL GAS TAX RECEIPTS
10,225
(2,393,700)
2,567
2,393,743
12,835
FEDERAL GAS TAX RECEIPTS
558
BUILDING DIVISION RESERVE FUND
405,848
I'.j
150,000
3,048
558,896
BUILDING DIVISION
505
ENGINEERING FLEET RIF
104,367
5,000
1,471
110,838
ENGINEERING FLEET R/F
4,718,849
Sub-Total
>'I
4,728,884
OPERATIONS
516
FACILITIES/PARKS MAINTENANCE
579,466
(105,000)
(65,000)!
175,000
8,432
592,898
FACILITIES/PKS MAINTENANCE
524
OPERATIONS EQUIPMENT
591,333
(770,000)
1
120,000
16,734
580,000
538,067
OPERATIONS-FLEET
Sub-Total
1,130,965
sub Total
1,170,799
COMMUNITY SERVICES
560
CSD BUILDING REFURBISHMENT
261,799
-.1
79,000
2,707
343,506
BUILDING REFURBISHMENT
518
COMMMUNITY SERVICES CAPITAL
745,215
(130,000)
(209,330)i
250,000
9,979
665,864
COM.SRVICES CAPTL
PLANNING
i
504
PARKLAND CASH IN LIEU
200,000
-(150,000)
_'.1
-
200,000
250,000
PARKLAND CASH-LIEU
507
WESTSIDE/BOWMANVILLE MARSH
47,087
697
47,784
WESTSD/BOW MARSH
508
NEWCASTLE WATERFRONT
71,694
1,062
72,756
N'CSTLE WATERFRONT
526
PORT GRANBY LLRW AGREEMENT
138,175
j
2,046
140,221
PORT GRANBY
556
COMMUNITY IMPROVEMENT PLAN
77,709
25,000
1,003
103,712
COMMUNITY IMPROV.PLAN
Sub-Total
534,664
i
614,472
Sub Total
702,025
LIBRARY
542 LIBRARY CAPITAL
30,000
9,951
120,947
862,923
LIBRARY CAPITAL n
543
LIBRARY COMPUTER EQUIPMENT
52,893
`1
783
53,676
LIBRARY COMPUTER EQUIP.
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Schedule 4
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
Capital Expenditure Summary Forecast
TOTAL 2013 2014 2015 2016
16 CORPORATE SERVICES 1,005,000 310,000 310,000 310,000 75,000
19 CLERK'S 257,000 57,000 35,000 - 165,000
28 EMERGENCY SERVICES-FIRE 6,150,000 2,535,000 2,615,000 355,000 645,000
32 ENGINEERING SERVICES 38,496,800 6,173,700 10,358,700 12,345,700 9,618,700
36 OPERATIONS 13,195,500 3,203,000 3,347,000 3,651,500 2,994,000
42 COMMUNITY SERVICES 3,122,000 401,000 386,000 250,000 2,085,000
50 PLANNING SERVICES 3,971,000 960,000 963,000 963,000 1,085,000
62 LIBRARIES 760,000 190,000 190,000 190,000 190,000
TOTAL 66,957,300 13,829,700 18,204,700 18,065,200 16,857,700
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
I
Capital Funding Summary by Source Forecast
TOTAL 2013 2014 2015 2016
Expenditures 66,957,300 13,829,700 18,204,700 18,065,200 16,857,700
External Financing (150,000) - (50,000) (100,000) -
Tax Levy (20,031,572) (3,900,000) (4,700,000) (5,458,286) (5,973,286)
Reserves (1,349,000) (335,000) (338,000) (338,000) (338,000)
Reserve Funds (21,691,139) (6,648,890) (5,485,547) (4,884,801) (4,671,901)
Development Charges (23,735,589) (2,945,810) (7,631,153) (7,284,113) (5,874,513)
TOTAL -