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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPSD-008-05 " Cl~-mglOn REPORT PLANNING SERVICES Meeting: GENERAL PURPOSE AND ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE MEETING Date: Monday, January 10, 2005 Report #: PSD-008-05 File #: PLN 38.4,1 (J,f'IJ- D((- 05 By-law #: Subject: DRAFT FINAL REPORT RECOMMENDED POLICY CHANGES: CLARINGTON COMMERCIAL POLICY REVIEW RECOMMENDATIONS: It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee recommend to Council the following: 1, THAT Report PSD-008-05 and the draft final report on Recommended Policy Changes: C/arington Commercial Policy Review be received; 2, THAT the Report be circulated to the Region of Durham and the Commercial Policy Review Stakeholders Group for comment; 3. THAT the Report be made available for public comment for a 30 day period; and 4. THAT the interested parties listed in this report be advised of Council's decision. Submitted by: Reviewed by: ~ ~--L-CA ~ d Q, Crome, M.C.I.P., R.P.P. Franklin Wu, r of Planning Services Chief Administrative Officer CP*DJC*df 5 January 2005 CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARtNGTON 40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L 1 C 3A6 T (905)623-3379 F (905)623-0830 en Uijt..i;j~~v REPORT NO.: PSD-008-05 PAGE 2 1.0 BACKGROUND 1.1 In May 2004, Council approved the undertaking of a two studies as an advance component of the statutory review of the Clarington Official Plan. The two studies were: . The Commercial Policy Review The Commercial Policy Review ("CPR") is an overall review of the commercial policies of the Clarington Official Plan and Secondary Plans addressing the commercial structure of the Municipality and the appropriate policy framework. It also included market impact analysis, urban design analysis and transportation analysis, . A Review of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan Two major proposals for expansion and development of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area led to the need for a review and update of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area ("BWMCA") Secondary Plan provided that the overall commercial policy review confirmed that additional f100rspace was warranted in the Municipality. A consulting team headed by Meridian Planning Consultants Inc., including urbanMetrics Inc. Tate Economic Research, Brook Mcilroy Inc. and TSH Limited is undertaking the Studies. 1,2 The applications submitted by West Diamond Properties and Players Business Park (companies jointly controlled by the Kaitlin Group and Metrus Developments) and by Holloway Holdings Limited were being considered by staff. The Official Plan requires that the Municipality undertake a market impact study (to be funded by the developer) for proposals of this magnitude. With the determination of the need for the Commercial Policy Review, the market impact analysis was broadened and incorporated as part of the CPR. 1,3 In October, the first component of the Commercial Policy Review was completed and a report titled Commercial Policy Review - Context and Issues was released for public comment and input by the Community Stakeholders Group that has been established for the Study. The report documented the key findings on the issues identified to date. 2.0 RECOMMENDED POLICY CHANGES REPORT 2,1 The draft final report on Recommended Policy Changes - Clarington Commercial Policy Review has been forwarded under separate cover. The report presents the consultant's analysis of the current commercial policies, reviews alternative approaches to commercial planning, the market analysis, the transportation issues and urban design issues. The report recommends the consultant's preferred approach to commercial planning in Clarington and recommends changes to the commercial policies of the Official Plan. The consultants will present a brief overview of the study findings for the Committee's benefit at this GPAC meeting. 2.2 There are two companion reports to the main report as follows: . Clarington Commmercial Policy Review: Retail and Market Impact Analysis . Commerical Policy Review - Urban Design Issues and Opportunities 69~,'i,j REPORT NO.: PSD-008-05 PAGE 3 The companion reports were prepared as background information for the summary report described above. The urban design report is expected to be available later this week. 3.0 NEXT STEPS 3.1 The Reports will be made available on the municipal website and in the Library for the public to review and comment. The Community Stakeholder Advisory Group will be meeting to review the findings at their next meeting planned for Thursday January 13th. In addition, a Open House is scheduled for the evening of the January 13th to allow input from all residents and retailers in Clarington. 3.2 Following these sessions, staff and the consultant team will be working to finalize the reports incorporating input from the Stakeholder Advisory Group, residents and businesses in the Municipality, 3,3 A review of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan is proceeding in recognition that there is market opportunity for recapture of expenditure out flows and the desirability to concentrate and focus commercial uses in a central location for a growing population. The additional floorspace can be accommodated either within the existing BWMCA or include the expansion of the BWMCA conditional upon achieving desired municipal land use, urban design and transportation objectives. 3.4 Over the coming months, staff will be reviewing the consultants' recommendations on the general amendments to the Clarington Official Plan and working with the consultants on the BWMCA Secondary Plan. 4.0 CONCLUSIONS 4,1 It is recommended that draft final report Recommended Policy Changes - Clarington Commercial Policy Review be received and circulated for comment. Attachments: Attachment 1 - Attachment 2 - Draft Recommended Policy Changes - Clarington Commercial Policy Review (Under separate cover) C/arington Commercial Policy Review: Retail Market and Impact Analysis (under Separate cover) 61:1 <ij i. ~ REPORT NO.: PSD-008-05 PAGE 4 Interest parties to be notified of Council's decision: Robert Hann Bryce Jordan Peter Smith Robert DeGasperis Ron Hooper Steven Zakem Stan Stein Marvin Green Sam Cohen Anthony Turnbull Evelyn Rozario John Wells Carmela Cappelli Scott Arbuckle Peter Walker Mark Frayne Suzanne McCrimmon Ron Hooper Gene Chartier Ted Watson Gail Rickard Michael Patrick Ian Smith Bill Humber James Vinson 6(\ " " : , tJ v ',J ~.;.j Draft Final Report Recommended Policy Changes Clarington Commercial Policy Review December 17, 2004 Meridian Planning Consultants Inc. Executive Summary 1. Introduction 1.1 Purpose of the Study 1.2 Planning Process 2. Context and Issues Report 2.1 Findings 3. Approaches to Commercial Planning 4. Market Impacts 5. Transportation 6. Summary of Urban Design Principles 7. Preferred Approach to Commercial Planning in Clarington 8. Proposed Changes to the Commercial Structure and Policies 9. Current Applications Supporting Reports Market Analysis – urbanMetrics Urban Design – Brook McIlroy Executive Summary Context 1. Council approved the undertaking of a Commercial Policy Review (“CPR”) in May of 2004. In addition to reviewing the overall commercial structure and policy framework in Clarington the CPR was also intended to address the commercial applications in process in the context of the current policies and recommended changes. A series of meetings and working sessions involving the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group, the consulting team and staff have been held. 2. The recommended approach provides land use designations and policies that meet market demands yet ensure the achievement of the planned function objectives for the downtowns, and the transportation and urban design objectives for the key central areas. 3. The preferred approach to commercial planning in Clarington can be described as one that will: integrate market, urban design and transportation objectives; provide less restrictive commercial policies by creating a simplified hierarchy; phase new development according to anticipated demand without regard for the type of store; emphasize municipal initiatives to foster the health of the downtowns; and focus development in the urban centres. Potential for Growth 4. Forecast population growth in the Municipality of Clarington will result in significant market growth creating the need for additional retail space to serve this growth. By 2021, Clarington is expected to increase by some 35,800 persons. 5. Clarington residents are currently spending a significant portion of their retail dollars outside of Clarington. There is a significant opportunity to recapture a portion of these expenditures with new retail facilities in Clarington. 6. The market analysis by urbanMetrics provides an understanding of the demand for commercial space in Clarington to the year 2021. The analyses of potential impacts of new commercial development on existing commercial centres concludes that 720,000 square feet of new retail space can be built in the short term without causing undue impacts on the existing commercial centres. 7. Thus, based on relatively conservative assumptions, in addition to the proposed and committed space evaluated of approximately 550,000 square feet, an additional approximately 170,000 square feet would be warranted (at the low end DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 i of the sales per square foot performance range utilized) by 2010. By 2021, over 1.0 million square feet of additional space would be warranted by the market. 8. It is proposed to continue the policy relationship between the anticipated market demand and the amount of floorspace available to the consumer. The relationship will not make a distinction as to the type of floor space (food, department store etc.) in order to best respond to consumer preference and in recognition that there is becoming less and less distinction among store types in the goods that are retailed. Transportation, Urban Design and the Grid System 9. It is a key objective of the municipality to ensure that the Durham Highway 2/King Street can maintain its function as a “main street” though the Centres and still provide an effective means of transport across the municipality. 10. The development of the grid road system is critical to maintaining the established vision and function of King Street as a “main street” through the West Bowmanville Main Central Area. The minor roads making up the grid allow for flexibility in access and internal traffic circulation, and alternative routing for local trips. When fully developed, the grid system will facilitate a reduction in traffic demand along King Street, and specifically a potential reduction in the turning movements at the signalized intersections. 11. The phasing and implementation of future transportation improvements in the West Bowmanville Main Central Area will require a comprehensive study as part of the Secondary Plan review. A review should also be completed to assess the residential area to the north through the Secondary Plan process which is underway. 12. The further development of West Bowmanville and Courtice Centre should be designed in a comprehensive manner such that the area is connected by common features and design elements. The grid road network will be a key element in achieving urban street blocks to accommodate pedestrian and vehicular traffic and will create opportunities to incorporate common design elements along the public road network. 13. Given the size of the Centres different areas within them may receive different design treatments consistent with the urban design vision, the functions of specific areas, transportation facility needs and the surrounding context. The Locations for Growth 14. From an urban structure perspective the preferred policy approach is to concentrate commercial uses in existing urban areas. The existing Centres are and will be central to the growing population. In addition they form the ‘nodes’ along Clarington’s main street, a key element of the long term urban structure objectives. The potential commercial development should be focused, not dispersed. This approach is completely dependent on achieving the necessary DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 ii and essential connection between the market, and the urban design and transportation objectives of Clarington. 15. The public authority to approve new commercial development in the municipality should be exercised in a manner that completely integrates the market, urban design and transportation issues. 16. Consistent with the current Official Plan policy other new centres or commercial areas should not be created over the five year term. 17. The Downtowns of Bowmanville, Newcastle Village and Orono are extremely important historical resources that define the character of Clarington. The primary reason for limiting the scale of commercial development in Clarington is the ongoing health of the historic downtowns. Positive municipal policies, strategies and initiatives should be used to foster the health of the downtowns. 18. Retail and service commercial uses in the downtown are generally small in size and serve more specialized markets. As such certain types of specific use and retail store size minimums may be imposed in areas outside of downtowns in order to focus specialty retail uses and government/office/administrative functions in the downtowns. 19. East and West Bowmanville should be defined as one area in the Official Plan with two districts, each with a distinctive planned function – the downtown and east business district as Bowmanville Downtown District and West Bowmanville as Bowmanville Uptown District. The creation of a single large commercial centre will provide support for Downtown Bowmanville. 20. The Bowmanville Regional Centre including the Bowmanville Uptown District and the Bowmanville Downtown District, as well as the Courtice Centre, Courtice West District and the Newcastle Village Downtown District should have sufficient land areas designated with boundaries provided for in the Secondary Plans to allow for additional commercial development in the range of 720,000 square feet of gross leasable retail floor space. This growth could occur in the existing designated areas and/or the expansion of the areas dependent on the achievement of the urban structure objectives of the municipality. 21. Local and Neighbourhood Centres are currently designated as symbols on the Official Plan land use schedules with policies outlining the range of sizes and types of uses permitted in the centre. Not all of these centres have developed as the residential communities have been built. The refinement of these areas should be addressed through the consultation stage. 22. There are currently five Highway Commercial Areas designated by the Plan. The experience over the past decade suggests that some of these sites are not required for large scale retail uses and/or should be limited in scope in order to achieve the CPR review objectives of building and supporting the urban structure by focussing commercial development in key areas. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 iii 23. A further session with the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group is proposed to be held in mid January 2005 in order to obtain comments and further input into the recommendations contained in this report. An open house will also be provided to present the report findings and recommendations and obtain input from the general public. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 iv 1. Introduction The Clarington Official Plan was approved in October 1996. Since that time retailing in Ontario has continued to change and traditional planning policies have been challenged with the advent of large format stores, the establishment of Wal- Mart in Canada and the continuing trend for automotive, department and food stores to carry a much broader variety of retail goods. Section 23.1.5 of the Clarington Official Plan directs that a review of the Official Plan must take place at least once every five years to consider the need for a complete review of the Official Plan. Currently, there are also a number of commercial development proposals that will impact on the community and the commercial planning framework. In order to properly address commercial planning in Clarington, Council approved the undertaking of a Commercial Policy Review (“CPR”) in May of 2004. In addition to the CPR, a further study has been commenced to address updates and revisions to the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan. Several of the recommendations from this report will also be implemented through the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan. 1.1 Purpose of the Study The CPR was intended to address the following: Is the overall commercial structure and policy framework in Clarington appropriate and what, if anything, needs to be changed? What key principles should be used in the planning, design and implementation of commercial and central areas? How can the historic downtown areas in Bowmanville, Newcastle and Orono remain vibrant if there is an increase in commercial floorspace in their respective markets? Should the retail floorspace thresholds in the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan be maintained, modified or deleted? What transportation infrastructure is needed to support commercial areas and how can the Main Street function of Central Areas be implemented? What Smart Growth and built form principles should be incorporated in the development of commercial and Central Areas? What should the planned function of the Bowmanville East Main Central Area and the Bowmanville West Main Central Area in Clarington’s commercial hierarchy be? Are further policies necessary to ensure the vitality of existing and proposed Central Areas? DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 1 What, if any, adjustments are required to the existing commercial policy hierarchies? The CPR was also intended to address the commercial applications in process in the context of the current policies and recommended changes. 1.2 Planning Process The CPR work program was divided into three phases: Background Research, Analysis and Final Report and Recommendations. Throughout the process a series of meetings and working sessions involving the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group, the consulting team and staff were held. The Community Stakeholder Advisory Group consists of members of the public, representatives from the local BIA’s, and representatives for various landowners. The consulting team is led by Meridian Planning Consultants Inc. (planning), with assistance from Brooke McIlroy (urban design), Totten Sims Hubecki (TSH) (transportation), and urbanMetrics and Tate Economic Research (market impact). Background Research The background research phase of the CPR involved a review of a number of commercial policy issues as well as an analysis of the commercial development and policy context for Clarington. The background research was compiled into a report entitled “Context and Issues Report – Clarington Commercial Policy Review”.The report provided a general overview of the evolution of commercial uses and policy, a description of Clarington’s commercial facilities and functions, an examination of the existing planning and urban design context, an analysis of the market and transportation context, and a discussion of the options and issues surrounding the regulation of commercial development in Ontario. The report also provided a number of findings to be further considered as part of the analysis phase of the CPR. Consultation During the background research phase of the CPR, a series of public consultations were held. Meetings with the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group were held on June 21, 2004 and October 27, 2004. At the June 21, 2004 meeting an overview of the background planning and market information was presented and the group was provided with an opportunity to discuss issues and concerns. On September 14, 2004, a workshop was held with the BIA to discuss the CPR in relation to the Community Improvement Plans being undertaken in their respective downtowns as well as to discuss general commercial planning issues. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 2 On October 27, 2004, the Context and Issues Report was presented together with alternative options for commercial planning to the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group. The group provided comments on the alternative options. Final Report and Recommendations This draft final report presents the conclusions of the analysis of the current policies and commercial structure, reviews the alternative approaches and the recommended changes to the commercial land use designations and policies in the Official Plan. The recommendations also address the currently proposed commercial development applications. Accompanying this report are separate documents dealing with the market analysis and urban design recommendations. It is intended that this draft final report be circulated for discussion and comment. A further session with the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group is proposed to be held in mid January 2005 in order to obtain comments and further input into the recommendations contained in this report. An open house will also be provided to present the report findings and recommendations and obtain input from the general public. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 3 2. Context and Issues Report 2.1 Findings As a result of the review of Clarington’s historical commercial development, the current commercial structure, the planning policy framework, the market analysis and the transportation framework, there were several general findings related to commercial policy in Clarington. These findings have been further assessed and are described in Exhibit 1, Findings. The findings and resulting questions have been analyzed in relation to the current Official Plan and in relation to options for commercial planning which are discussed in the next section of the report. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 4 EXHIBIT 1: FINDINGS Key Findings Discussion 1. Clarington’s existing commercial policy structure is -need to simplify the policy structure somewhat dated. New terminology would be useful. The -consider use of new terms existing policies referring to specific stores by name -consider consistency with new Regional terms needs to be removed. -opportunity should be provided for larger format retail store 2. The two main commercial areas are Bowmanville East -the two areas should be combined for the purpose of the Official Plan Main Central Area and Bowmanville West Main Central -they can be described as one main central area with two distinct functions Area.-both should maintain their Secondary Plans 3. While separate in geographic area, there are several -there is a need to recognize the functional distinction between the east and references to the Bowmanville West Main Central Area west areas functioning in a similar manner as the Bowmanville East -this should be provided through land use, urban design, and transportation Main Central Area. There is an emphasis on replicating policies the downtown in the west area. 4. An approach to commercial planning that continues to -market impacts and planning considerations should be related to the health relate the supply of land for commercial uses to the of the downtown forecast demand is appropriate insofar as it may assist in -lands should be designated and phased in relation to market demand fostering the role of the downtown. 5. The market analysis indicates that by 2010, an additional -the location of the new retail development should be consistent with urban 720,000 square feet of retail commercial space will be design, transportation and urban structure objectives. required to meet market needs without significantly impacting the function of the downtowns or other commercial centres. 6. The focus of commercial activity in Clarington has been -this corridor should remain as the focus of commercial activity along the Durham Highway 2/King Street corridor. 7. The Courtice Main Central Area needs to be confirmed as -Additional areas in Courtice are not needed for commercial growth in the to where it can meet commercial needs. short term based on the deferred policy recommendations 8. Newcastle Village and Orono provide for historic -need to remain as local areas downtown areas and these areas should be supported. -need policies for support 9. Downtown Bowmanville plays a vital role in the -consideration should be given to broader downtown policies and initiatives community. -need to establish flexible policies to allow intensification and redevelopment opportunities 10. Transportation infrastructure must reflect past -grid road system function is extremely important to maintain goals and recommendations and policies objectives for the Bowmanville West Main Central Area DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 5 3. Approaches to Commercial Planning The current goals of the Official Plan with respect to Central Areas and commercial uses are to: develop the Central Areas as the focal points of economic, residential, social and cultural activities for the various communities within Clarington; provide for other types of specialized commercial uses to meet the needs of residents; and, to respond to and accommodate new trends in the commercial sector and direct them to appropriate locations. Through the CPR consultations and background work, it is clear that these goals remain very relevant. The Plan should continue to ensure that there are a variety of locations for commercial uses to allow the market function to provide for a range of choice for local consumers. The Official Plan should also continue to protect and foster the role of the historic downtown areas. The largest urban centre in Clarington, the grouping of West Bowmanville, the historic Bowmanville downtown and the East Business District, has the opportunity to function as a regional centre. Three alternative approaches to commercial planning were presented as part of theContext and Issues Report at the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group session on October 27, 2004. The alternative approaches represented a reasonable range of choice available to the municipality given the current planning framework. Two of the options were reflective of either end of the regulatory spectrum; one being the most restrictive, controlled approach and the other being a very general, non-regulatory approach. The option originally entitled “protecting the downtown” was meant to represent an option in the middle which within itself could have a range of options and implications. The planning controls available to implement commercial policy include the following: use permissions by land use and store type (food, department store); - limits or caps on the size (floorspace or land area) of various centres; - limits on the size (floorspace) of individual stores; and, - limits on the amount of types of floorspace (food, department store); - These limits or caps can also be implemented in a phased manner by linking the amount of land or floorspace to population thresholds. This is done to match the demand or anticipated market with the supply of commercial floorspace. A report on the anticipated supply and demand for commercial space to the year 2021 is provided under separate cover and summarized in Section 6 of this report. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 6 Each option is generally described below with an example of how and where it is presently utilized. The options are then assessed based on the implications they present in relation to land use, the market and transportation. The options are described as the controlled hierarchy, maximum range of choice and flexible controls. Controlled Hierarchy The controlled hierarchy option/approach would mean that the current structure and content of policies in the Official Plan would continue and could in fact be more restrictive. The approach establishes a fairly tightly defined planned function for each commercial area and uses controls on the amount and type of floor space to both permit and protect the planned functions. This option requires limits on the amount of commercial gross leasable area which can be developed by type of floor space (DSTM, food etc.) based on thresholds and caps as well as very specific use permissions, essentially matching the anticipated demand by store type with the use permission and maximum sizes. This approach also requires the need for market studies to assess market impact in regard to new commercial development proposals over a certain size (currently 2,500 square metres is utilized in the Clarington Official Plan) to ensure the supply and demand equation continues to be balanced. Maximum Range of Choice The maximum range of choice option/approach generally designates more land than is needed to meet market needs in order to provide the opportunity for a full range of commercial uses. The intent is to encourage a high degree of competition and consequent choice for consumers. Lands with suitable characteristics for a complete range of uses and building sizes are made available in locations that can adequately be serviced, with good transportation facilities and with little or no impacts on adjacent uses. No market studies are required and no action is taken to preclude a reasonable degree of competition among commercial uses. This approach would require the removal of any restrictions on size from the Official Plan. It also generally describes commercial uses in categories which are very broad in terms of the types of uses permitted. Flexible Control The public interest in using controls on the amount of commercial floor space in Clarington is primarily related to the protection of the role and function of the historic downtowns. The third option/approach would provide for some controls based on the market demand with phasing to control the amount and type of development at any one time, with some horizon year identified. The timeframe could be the five-year period prior to another Official Plan Review or a longer period of time. This third option/approach could have the objective of fostering DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 7 the planned function of the downtown areas by limiting the amount of new commercial development within a specified time period (based on market analysis), essentially continuing to match the potential commercial development areas with growth in the population. This option/approach could also require market studies to ensure the planned function of a commercial centre and/or downtowns was maintained. Exhibit 2, Comparison of Options, provides a comparative review. Given its current commercial objectives and historical context, an approach which combines a range of choice with the protection of the downtown would best serve Clarington’s needs. An approach should be used which provides land use designations and policies that meet market demands yet ensures the achievement of the planned function objectives for the downtowns and the transportation and urban design objectives for the key central areas. This necessary and essential connection between the policy approach to market and the urban design and transportation objectives of Clarington is perhaps the single most important conclusion of the Commercial Policy Review. The public authority to approve new commercial development in the municipality should be exercised in a manner that completely integrates the market, urban design and transportation issues. It is proposed to continue the policy relationship between the anticipated market demand and the amount of floorspace available to the consumer. The relationship will not make a distinction as to the type of floor space (food, department store etc.) for several reasons. First, without a policy restriction the market place can best respond to consumer preference. Second, there is becoming less and less distinction among store types in the goods that are retailed. Food can be bought at a WalMart, televisions at a Loblaws and both at a Canadian Tire. Finally, the flexibility inherent in not defining different forms of retail use means the market place can respond to Clarington’s consumer needs within the framework of a commercial policy structure that achieves the broader urban structure objectives. While individual users may change, the concentration of retail uses, in the Bowmanville Centre, Courtice Centre and the other centres, will remain. The current market analysis has determined the amount of floorspace that can be developed over the next five years without significant impact on existing uses or planned centres. The floorspace can be converted to land area based on a 25% ratio of building area to land area, as approximately 75% of any commercial site is required for parking, circulation, loading and landscaping. The only exception to this control would be in cases where developments are phased, and subsequent phases are not immediately supported by the market. In these cases, maximum floor space limits may be used. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 8 EXHIBIT 2: COMPARISON OF OPTIONS MunicipalImplications OptionDescription Comments Example PlanningTransportation Market Controlled-continued controls City of Guelph -can require -transportation -outflow to -restricting choice too Hierarchy on size and type of constant infrastructure can surrounding severely may not be in commercial uses Town of Whitby amendments be implemented municipalities can be the public interest with detailed -limits can with anticipated significant -controlling the market hierarchy, Clarington become outdated phased -can limit consumer could prove to be thresholds, quicklydevelopment choice detrimental maximum-can protect -can interfere with -need to have some floorspace limits downtownmarketcontrols for the and required market through -can protect sites downtowns studies restrictive which don’t develop approach for years Maximum-“let the market City of -more-can lead to -can have impacts on -lack of control can lead Range of decide” approach. Mississauga now appropriate in inefficiencies with the planned function to poor planning Choiceuses this built out areas the transportation of areas and -there is a need for -can lead to blight network playing downtownssome structure and Orilliain no-growth “catch- up” control in a growing areas community - would be a significant break from past practice Flexible -flexible controls -more than 1/3 of -structured and -allows-still allows impacts -downtowns are critical Control can be used to municipalities in organized appropriate on the downtowns to community component provide a policy the GTA utilise approach can transportation be considered - task is to only control approach that is an approach with provide a general infrastructure -provides more what might affect the tailored to the goals flexible controls hierarchy which planning and flexibility for planning downtowns and objectives of but with an allows for a range implementation to respond to the the municipality emphasis on of choice and with phasing market - less concerned protecting the provides policies -depending on -can interfere with with specific uses downtownsto strengthen the the level of market forces and downtowns and control it can also lead to outflow – ensure planned lead to again depending on functions inefficiencies the level of control maintained DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 9 4. Market Impacts urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research Inc. prepared a retail market demand and impact analysis for the Municipality of Clarington as input to the Clarington Commercial Policy Review. The detailed background research is included in a document entitled “Clarington Commercial Policy Review, Background Data, Municipality of Clarington”, dated August 20, 2004 and the full report entitled “Clarington Commercial Policy Review Retail market and Impact Analysis Municipality of Clarington, Ontario” is also available under separate cover. Planning policy attempts to provide a range and breadth of choice to consumers, at easily accessible locations that cause little or no impact on the existing key centres. Planning also attempts to ensure that these locations do not negatively impact adjacent uses as a result of traffic or other site-related conditions. The number, location and size of commercial uses are a function of the market for such uses and the municipality’s planning objectives. Market analyses help determine how much land should be available in a community to provide floor space for consumer goods and services. It is necessary to know the nature and scale of the need for additional retail/service space in order to consider and understand how new commercial facilities might best be located to serve the anticipated market – both inside and outside of the municipality. This information is needed both in order to understand the current strengths and weaknesses of the Municipality’s existing retail/service structure and to determine the additional space that will be needed to serve future residents within the municipality’s trade area. The basic approach adopted in the market analysis is similar to that used in numerous other commercial policy review market studies across Ontario for many years, employing both quantitative and qualitative assessments. The initial task is to assess the current and future demand by major retail category in the municipality. The increase in future demand over the base year demand is then defined as the ‘residual potential’. The residual sales potential for various retail categories is converted into estimates of ‘warranted’ additional space (meaning needed to serve the market). This calculation uses sales per square foot productivity factors in order to determine the additional space needed. Additional analyses are then undertaken to understand the impact of any new facilities on the sales per square foot of existing retail categories. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 10 Additional Warranted Space Analysis The market analysis has included estimates of additional warranted space for six major retail store types, including: non-department store DSTM (department store type merchandise), department store DSTM, supermarket, grocery/specialty food stores, home improvement and home & automotive. A significant conclusion of the background work was that a very large percentage of shopping dollars are spent by Clarington residents outside of the municipality. The opportunity to ‘recapture’ these sales provides the potential for growth in the retail facilities without any need for population growth in Clarington. A number of scenarios have been evaluated, as detailed in Appendix A to the main market report, and as outlined below:’ Scenario A – Market Growth Only – This scenario was included to determine the future market opportunities in Clarington based on market growth and real growth only (i.e. assume inflow from consumers living outside of Clarington equates to outflow sales). Even without an increase in recapture from outside of Clarington, a significant amount of retail space could be accommodated in Clarington in future years. For example, by 2010, additional non-department store DSTM space warranted would amount to 208,000 square feet, at an average sales per square foot level of $275. Total retail space warranted amounts to approximately to 400,000 square feet by 2010 at an average sales per square foot of $330. Scenario B – Base (used for the impact analysis) - This scenario assumes an opportunity for some recapture of Clarington residents’ expenditures currently being captured by retail facilities outside of Clarington if certain additional commercial development occurs in Clarington. Based on the assumptions in this scenario, additional non- department store DSTM space warranted in Clarington by 2010 would approximate 400,000 square feet (at $275 per square foot), with total retail space amounting to about 720,000 square feet (at an average of $325 per square foot). Scenario CHigher Recapture – – This scenario reflects higher or more aggressive assumptions regarding recapture opportunities from outside of Clarington. In this scenario, the opportunity for additional retail space within Clarington is higher. For example, non-department store DSTM space warranted would amount to 473,000 square feet by 2010 at $275 per square foot, with some 852,000 square feet of total retail space warranted at $325 per square foot. Impact Analysis (Scenario B) DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 11 In addition to the calculation of warranted space, a detailed impact analysis was undertaken based on Scenario B assumptions. The impact analysis assumes the following major retail proposals in Clarington with a first full year of opening in 2007: West Diamond & Players site – Relocated Loblaws supermarket from Clarington Centre, proposed Wal-Mart department store and ancillary retail and service uses (Phase 1 only). Valiant Properties – Expansion of Clarington Centre Zellers store and re- tenanting of former Loblaws space. Halloway Holdings Limited – Proposed Home Depot store and ancillary retail space. Valiant Properties – Courtice Main Central Area Torgan Group – Proposed retail centre development, home improvement centre, retail space included. It was assumed that only one home improvement centre would be in operation by 2007. For the purposes of the analysis it does not matter which home improvement centre is constructed. A number of other retail commercial applications in Bowmanville and Newcastle Village that would be more local serving have also been included in the analysis. Another home improvement store could enter the market beyond this period through increased recapture of sales from outside of Clarington, market growth opportunities (including available residual sales from other store types which sell home improvement store merchandise), and sales transfers from existing stores in the local market. The Scenario B analysis assumes that all of this proposed/designated retail space would open in 2006, with a first full year of operation in 2007. A directional impact analysis has been undertaken which evaluates the potential sales impacts of the proposed/designated space on all supermarkets and department stores in Clarington, as well as DSTM facilities in Bowmanville Mall, other Bowanville East Main Central Area including the downtown, Bowmanville West Main Central Area, other Bowmanville, as well as east and west Clarington. The following summarizes the results of our impact analysis: Market Growth and Recapture Opportunities Exist that will Support Additional Retail Space in Clarington 1. Forecast population growth in the Municipality of Clarington will result in significant market growth creating the need for additional retail space to serve this growth. By 2021, Clarington is expected to increase by some 35,800 persons. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 12 2. Clarington residents are currently spending a significant portion of their retail dollars outside of Clarington, and particularly in other Durham Region communities, such as Oshawa. As such, there is a significant opportunity to recapture a portion of these expenditures with the addition of new retail facilities in Clarington. The table below illustrates the percentage and volume of expenditures that Clarington residents currently make at selected major store types outside Clarington. Category Percentage of Clarington Residents’ Clarington Residents’ Expenditures Outside Expenditures Made In Clarington (2003 $) Clarington Supermarket 66.9% $38.3 million Department17.0% $62.5 million Store Non-Department34.2% $137.4 million Store DSTM Home12.3% $15.9 million Improvement All proposed retail space, as evaluated in Scenario B, could be developed by 2007 with additional opportunities for other space in the future. This would include space on other existing designated sites in Clarington (e.g. in Courtice) and well as the opportunity for expansion of existing proposed sites. 3. Non-Department Store DSTM Analysis – The analysis indicates that all the proposed non-department store DSTM space evaluated (354,100 square feet) could be developed by 2007, without critical impacts on the existing space or designated sites within Clarington. 4. Department Store Analysis – The analysis indicates that the proposed Wal-Mart (Phase 1) or a similar facility could proceed by 2007 without critical impacts on the existing Zellers department store in Clarington Centre. 5. Supermarket Analysis – The analysis indicates that the proposed Loblaws relocation and expansion (Phase 1) or a similar faciltiy could proceed by 2007 without sales impacts on existing supermarkets in Clarington. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 13 6. Home Improvement Centre – One home improvement centre can proceed by 2007, without impacts on existing retailers in Clarington. As noted earlier although only one home improvement centre has been evaluated, our analysis does not preclude another store entering the market. With continued market growth, the available residual potential in other store categories which sell home improvement merchandise, and the opportunity for increased recapture of sales from outside of Clarington in the future, would not preclude another home improvement centre from entering the market beyond 2007. It is not expected that the impacts of two such stores would be significantly greater than one store given the limited facilities in Clarington at the present time. Net Warranted Additional Space in Clarington Overall, the analysis indicates that there are significant retail development opportunities within the Municipality of Clarington in the short term. This proposed new retail space will allow Clarington residents to shop locally and will increase the strength and convenience of the retail environment within the Municipality. The following graphs illustrate the net additional space warranted in Clarington in 2010 and 2021 based on the Scenario B analysis. These space calculations have been adjusted to exclude the proposed space, as evaluated in the impact analysis. As indicated, by 2010, excluding the existing proposed space evaluated, approximately 168,000 square feet of additional retail space would be warranted (at the low end of the sales per square foot performance range utilized). By 2021, over 1.0 million square feet of additional space would be warranted, based on these same sales performance levels, with some 603,000 square feet based on the high end of the sales per square foot range utilized. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 14 Scenario B: 2010 - NET ADDITIONAL WARRANTED SPACE IN CLARINGTON (net of proposals evaluated) (Excludes sales transfers from existing stores, the opportunity for sales transfers from one store category to another, and increased recapture opportunities) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 -40,000 -60,000 SupermarketDepartment StoreOther DSTMHome ImprovementHome and AutoSpecialty Food 21,700-17,700-42,100-16,90022,000-4,000 High Sales/Sq.Ft. Range 34,70013,30082,9005,10029,0003,000 Lower Sales/Sq.Ft. Range Scenario B: 2021 - NET ADDITIONAL WARRANTED SPACE IN CLARINGTON (net of proposals evaluated) (Excludes sales transfers from existing stores, the opportunity for sales transfers from one store category to another, and increased recapture opportunities) 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 SupermarketDepartment StoreOther DSTMHome ImprovementHome and AutoSpecialty Food 109,70061,300313,90026,10063,00029,000 High Sales/Sq.Ft. Range 141,700117,300580,90062,10086,00047,000 Lower Sales/Sq.Ft. Range DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 15 5. Transportation The CPR has established that significant additional retail development can be accommodated in Clarington. As retail commercial growth occurs it will be critical to ensure that transportation network capacity can accommodate new growth in an efficient manner. This approach will require phasing given the likely time period for development. Much of the commercial growth is to be directed to the key urban areas. It is a key objective of the municipality to ensure that the Durham Highway 2/King Street can maintain its function as a “main street” though the Centres and still provide an effective means of transport across the municipality. A key growth area will be the West Bowmanville Main Central Area. Currently the development in this area includes major retail uses such as Canadian Tire, Zellers and Loblaws, ancillary retail uses, restaurants, a cinema, a fire station, and a recreation complex. The recent proposals for development in the area have been for large format retail stores (i.e., big box development) that are focussed on the King Street (Highway 2) corridor. This type of land use is auto dependent and will require improvements to the road network serving this area. With the anticipation of transit consolidation and expansion as a Durham Region service, an improved road network will also accommodate bus routes and support higher levels of transit use. Within the West Bowmanville Main Central Area, the transportation infrastructure required to support continued growth includes intersection improvements along King Street, including signalization at Boswell Drive and Green Road, the extension of Green Road southerly to Baseline Road, and the completion of various links that form a grid road network. The minor roads that are currently planned to complete the grid include the extensions of Uptown Avenue, Clarington Boulevard, Prince William Boulevard, and Boswell Drive. This would be reviewed further in the Secondary Plan update. The development of the grid road system is critical to maintaining the established vision and function of King Street as a “main street” through the West Bowmanville Main Central Area. The minor roads making up the grid allow for flexibility in access and internal traffic circulation, and alternative routing for local trips. When fully developed, the grid system will facilitate a reduction in traffic demand along King Street, and specifically a potential reduction in the turning movements at the signalized intersections. It is expected that the grid will allow King Street to continue to function as a four lane facility with conventional intersection lane arrangements, and provide for DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 16 both commuter traffic and turning movement traffic generated by the existing and future West Bowmanville developments. Without the grid system, it is anticipated that King Street would eventually require a general widening to six basic lanes, and signalized intersections would eventually require dual turn lanes to accommodate the traffic demand associated with the proposed development levels. The latter type of improvements would be contrary to the “main street” vision, and would not be consistent with the urban design features currently in place and those proposed. The phasing and implementation of future transportation improvements in the West Bowmanville Main Central Area will require a comprehensive study as part of the Secondary Plan review. A review should also be completed to assess the residential area to the north through the Secondary Plan process which is underway. This is necessary since the north-south grid road links extend from the West Bowmanville area into the northerly areas and intersect with the planned extension of Long worth Avenue. Longworth Avenue is significant in that it is a major east-west collector in the Bowmanville road network, and its extension from Scugog Street westerly to Green Road is expected to provide relief to the King Street corridor. The comprehensive study is required to ensure that the linkages between the commercial and residential areas take into account future transit service and routing, emergency access, school transportation requirements, and provide the desired flexibility in route choice for commercial and residential traffic. Addressing these transportation requirements in a system context, will confirm and define the role and function of King Street as a “main street” according to the vision established by the Official Plan. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 17 6. Summary of Urban Design Principles TheUrban Design Issues and Opportunities Repor,t which will be issued unders separate cover, noted that the existing Clarington Official Plan and Secondary Plans provide some good urban design guidelines which have been the result of previous studies and staff recommendations. It is recommended that additional general urban design guidelines be considered as part of the CPR with more detailed guidelines being developed through the West Bowmanville Main Central Area Secondary Plan process. The following text provides examples of additional urban design criteria that should be considered for large format retail and the historic downtown/transition areas. These guidelines are intended to provide a framework for further discussion and consultation with municipal staff, stakeholders, and the public. Major New Retail Development The further development of West Bowmanville and Courtice Centre should be designed in a comprehensive manner such that the area is connected by common features and design elements. The grid road network will be a key element in achieving urban street blocks to accommodate pedestrian and vehicular traffic and will create opportunities to incorporate common design elements along the public road network. Other common elements which should be considered for the area should include building heights, façade treatments, setbacks, pedestrian infrastructure and streetscaping. It is also recognized that given the size of the Centres, different areas within them may receive different design treatments consistent with the urban design vision, the functions of specific areas and the surrounding context. For example, Clarington Boulevard is an area for high quality pedestrian retail environment with specific façade, and streetscape treatment required. Smaller retail units with appropriate building form will be important to further animate the street and provide a link to the residential areas and high school to the north. Parking areas should also be developed in a consistent manner and be broken up to avoid large tracts of parking lots. Edging and entrance features should be strong and provide a sense of place so that the public knows they are in the West Bowmanville and Courtice Centre areas. This identity can be further enhanced by an amenity or architectural feature for the area (clock tower, public square). Urban design guidelines to be used in considering the development of large format retail developments should also include the following: DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 18 Facades Excessively long facades should incorporate recesses and projections along a minimum specified percentage of the length of the facade. Where the façade abuts a public street, windows, awnings, and arcades should total a minimum percentage of the facade length, Principal building entrances should be highly visible with features such as canopies or porticos, arcades, and landscaping. Predominant exterior building materials should be of high quality materials such as brick, wood, or sandstone. Concrete block panels or pre-fabricated steel panels are not permitted as the predominant exterior building materials. Exterior materials should be varied in colour and texture where appropriate to provide architectural interest. Setbacks The maximum setback of some buildings to a public or private street should be reduced and minimum and maximum distances should be specified. Community amenities such as a seating area, water feature, public art installation, etc should be provided within setbacks to a public street or at specified locations within parking areas. Pedestrian Infrastructure & Streetscaping Sidewalks should be provided on both sides of all adjacent public streets to facilitate pedestrian movement and access. A continuous internal pedestrian walkway should be provided from the perimeter public sidewalk to the principal customer entrances. This internal walkway should feature landscaping, benches, and pedestrian scaled lighting. Sidewalks should be provided along the full length of the building along any facade featuring a customer entrance and along any facade abutting public parking areas. Internal pedestrian walkways should provide a weather protection feature such as an awning within a minimum specified distance of all customer entrances. Internal pedestrian walkways should be distinguished from driving surfaces through the use of special paving, bricks, or stamped concrete to enhance pedestrian safety and the attractiveness of the walkways. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 19 Parking Areas Off-street parking spaces located between the front facade of the principal building and the primary abutting street should be minimized to reduce the visual impact of large format parking areas. Parking areas should incorporate pedestrian walkways to enable safe and direct movement to principal customer entrances. Landscaping planters and modules should be located at each end a row of parking spaces. Historic Downtowns Development in the historic downtown areas should be encouraged to meet design criteria that emphasis the character of the downtown. Most downtown development will occur through infill and intensification and as such some consideration should be given to the following guidelines: Infill Development: • The setback provisions for infill development should be calculated based on the average setback of adjoining properties. The height of infill development should be controlled by a minimum and maximum percentage of the average height of adjacent buildings. Rooflines for new development should match or compliment pre-existing heritage roof lines if adjacent or proximate to the site of redevelopment. On wide lots, building façades should be designed to appear as multiple storefronts at grade. This subdivision maintains the storefront rhythm of the street wall. Storefront design should be designed to maintain the rhythm of the heritage storefront character with its recessed entries and large bay windows. Residential apartments above street level shops should be encouraged as this use contributes to increased street animation. Parking areas should be located at the rear of new and infill development and accessible via a public or private laneway. All parking areas should be screened by landscaping from the public street To support the transition of Heritage areas to adjacent street related development and nearby residential areas, traditional form elements including pitched roofs, gable ends, dormer windows, and other architectural features should be incorporated into the design of new buildings. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 20 7. Preferred Approach to Commercial Planning in Clarington The preferred approach to commercial planning in Clarington generally can be described as one that will: integrate market, urban design , land use compatibility and transportation objectives; provide less restrictive commercial policies by creating a simplified hierarchy; phase new development according to anticipated demand without regard for the type of store; emphasize municipal initiatives to foster the health of the downtowns; and, focus development in the urban centres. The intent is not to regulate competition but to ensure that the planned function of the downtowns and the commercial centres are maintained while continuing to provide accessibility and convenience for the public. The amount of commercial floorspace should continue to be co-ordinated with the growth of the market. Thresholds for the Bowmanville West Main Central Area may continue to be required to implement the findings of the market analysis . The market analysis by urbanMetrics provides an understanding of the demand for commercial space in Clarington to the year 2021. The analyses of potential impacts of new commercial development on existing commercial centres concludes that 720,000 square feet of new retail space can be built in the short term without causing undue impacts on the existing commercial centres. If there is excess market demand beyond the forecast within that time period, additional new commercial development can be accommodated through intensification and infill in existing planned areas. From an urban structure perspective the preferred policy approach is to concentrate commercial uses in existing urban areas including the expansion of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area (BWCMA), which consists of the existing special policy area and additional lands to the north. The existing Centres are and will be central to the growing population. In addition they form the ‘nodes’ along Clarington’s main street, a key element of the long term urban structure objectives. The potential commercial development should be focused, not dispersed. Again, this approach is completely dependent on achieving the municipality’s urban design and transportation objectives. Consistent with the current Official Plan policy other new centres or commercial areas should not be created over the five year term. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 21 This approach, in policy terms, is based on the following logic. General Clarington is a large, well located and rapidly growing municipality that consists of several well established communities. The largest settlement area today and in the future will be Bowmanville. New commercial development should be focused in the existing Main Central Areas as they are the most central places in the municipality. The most central place is Bowmanville East and West and this should remain and continue as the area where commercial uses are focused. The historic downtown in Bowmanville must not be unduly impacted by the larger format commercial uses concentrated in Bowmanville West and would benefit relatively from the proximity as compared to similar uses drawing shoppers to another municipality. Approval of development in the Main Central Areas should conceptually integrate the achievement of urban design, market and transportation objectives in the Secondary Plans. All objectives must be achieved for development to proceed. King Street/Highway 2 is the “main street” of the major urban centres in Clarington which should develop as a high quality urban environment accommodating vehicular traffic, pedestrians and the main transit spine. Over time the road environment should become more urban in character as adjacent development intensifies and orients to the road. Commercial Structure The current commercial structure and policy framework should be simplified wherever possible. The commercial hierarchy should provide for designations which balance the achievement of their planned function and the ability to serve consumers with a range and choice of goods. As such the planned functions set out in the Official Plan should be more general, more flexible and allow the market to function to the extent that it will benefit consumers while permitting the downtowns to grow and foster as a location for administration, cultural and institutional uses, service and specialty retail. The revised policy structure should be in conformity with the Region’s general direction. The Plan should phase the approval of commercial land needs based on market demand, linking population growth to the amount of land designated and allowing the market to determine the exact size, mix and nature of the retail space. The amount of land designated should be based on current coverage requirements and should assume opportunities for intensification in the existing central areas. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 22 Highway Commercial areas and policies must be refined to reflect their existing and intended role and function. They are intended to accommodate large format retail uses such as home improvement stores but not become major concentrations of retail space or accommodate uses which are important to the development of key urban centres (such as department or food stores). Specialty commercial uses like those anticipated in Port Darlington should be encouraged in Tourism Nodes and Special Policy Areas. Commercial uses in Employment Areas should continue to be limited in scale and intended to service employees in the area and be accessory uses. Retail warehouses should be directed to existing centres rather than Light Industrial Areas. Market Impacts The amount of commercial land designated should be phased based on market need over a five year planning period. From a market perspective the additional warranted space to 2010 beyond current commitments could be reasonably accommodated within the proposed Bowmanville Regional Centre through new development on vacant land and through intensification. Market impact studies will only be required for commercial developments which would result in the addition of substantially more commercially designated floor space, expansion to existing areas or by the designation of new areas. The focus of any market impact study should be on the impact to the planned function of downtowns and should be required at Council’s discretion. Given the fragility of the downtowns, conservative assumptions regarding impacts should be used in the release of new floor space. Downtowns The Downtowns of Bowmanville, Newcastle Village and Orono are extremely important historical resources that define the character of Clarington. The primary reason for limiting the scale of commercial development in Clarington is the ongoing health of the historic downtowns. Positive municipal policies, strategies and initiatives should be used to foster the health of the downtowns, wherever possible new development should contribute to the health of downtowns. Policies in the Official Plan must clearly define the role and function of the downtowns, their importance and the need for them to remain as important locations for government, cultural, institutional, office, residential, service and specialty retail uses with a pedestrian oriented environment. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 23 Retail and service commercial uses in the downtown are generally small in size and serve more specialized markets. As such certain types of specific use and retail store size minimums may be imposed in areas outside of downtowns in order to focus specialty retail uses and government/office/administrativefunctions in the downtowns. Downtowns shall be pedestrian oriented and provide for street-related commercial uses. Automobile related uses should be discouraged from locating in the downtowns and prohibited from the historic areas. Infilling will be encouraged in the downtown and the combination of new pedestrian-oriented, street-related commercial development with residential uses should be promoted. The Regional Centre - Bowmanville East and West The creation of a single large commercial centre will meet several urban structure objectives. With the majority of new commercial development focused in one central location in close proximity it should provide support for the Downtown. East and West Bowmanville should be defined as one area in the Official Plan with two districts, each with a distinctive planned function – the downtown and east business district as Bowmanville Downtown District and West Bowmanville as Bowmanville Uptown District. Transportation infrastructure must be consistent with the objectives for these areas. Strong urban design policies are needed to ensure these areas are developed and redeveloped according to the Official Plan goals, objectives and direction. Regional Official Plan Changes The Region is proposing to amend its current commercial policies by providing a much more generalized framework and eliminating many elements of commercial development that is currently regulated at the Regional level. The Region’s interest in commercial areas is proposed to be limited to proposals of 56,000 square metres or more or any proposal requiring a market population of 75,000 people or more. The Region has also suggested that Main Central Areas now be referred to as Regional Centres and Central Areas be referred to as Centres. While Clarington supports a commercial policy that promotes nodes and corridors, they have raised some issues regarding the Region’s removal of interest in areas less than 56,000 square feet. The recommended changes to Clarington’s commercial policy structure would conform to the Region’s general directions identified to date. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 24 8. Proposed Changes to the Commercial Structure and Policies General Policies There are several general policies in the Official Plan which refer to goals and objectives for commercial development. There do not appear to be any changes required to the general policies except for a possible reference to population projections and targets that are to be updated as shown below. Proposed Policy SectionExisting Policy Changes/Notes 5. Growth 5.3.3 The management of growth in urban Table 5-1 will be updated in the Management areas shall be consistent with the future. The population projections principles of sustainability, flexibility, used in the market impact analysis adaptability over time, protection of will be referenced in the ecosystems, compactness of urban form, amendments to the commercial intensification of existing areas, mix and policy section. integration of uses and the progressive, orderly extension of urban development. Central Areas and Commercial Areas Clarington’s current commercial policy structure is based on a hierarchy which provides for commercial land use designations in Central Areas (main, sub- central or local), Neighbourhood Commercial or Highway Commercial Areas. Further specific designations are found within the Secondary Plans. The various types of Central Areas are further defined by location (Bowmanville East, Bowmanville West, Courtice, Newcastle, and Orono). The Central Areas have caps placed on the amount of retail and personal service gross leasable area that is permitted. The Central Areas are not limited to commercial uses and as such any changes to these areas and policies must be carefully done to ensure the intended function is maintained. Changes to the names will also need to be reflected in references to the areas in other sections of the Plan (e.g. in the residential neighbourhoods section there are tables referring to housing densities and targets in the Main Central, Sub Central Areas). The following proposed recommended changes are intended to maintain the current intended planned function of the Central Areas, including the downtowns, and simplify the commercial component. It is also important to maintain the locational references in the new designation names. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 25 The Central Areas shall be redefined as follows: Bowmanville Main Central Areas (East and West) will now be defined as Bowmanville Regional Centre. one area and known as the The Bowmanville Regional Centre will be further defined through the Secondary Plans as the Uptown District and the Downtown District (the Downtown will include the historical downtown and the east business district). Courtice Centre. Courtice Main Central Area will now be defined as the Newcastle Village Main Central Area will now be defined as the Newcastle Village Downtown District. Courtice West Courtice Sub-Central Area will now be defined as the District. Local Centres Local Central Areas will be defined as and further reviewed. Orono Downtown. Orono Local Central Area will be defined as the Convenience Neighbourhood Commercial Areas will be defined as Centres. and further reviewed Highway Commercial Areas - the terminology should remain as is. The Bowmanville Regional Centre including the Bowmanville Urban District and the Bowmanville Downtown District, as well as the Courtice Centre, Courtice West District and the Newcastle Village Downtown District should have sufficient land areas designated with boundaries provided for in the Secondary Plans to allow for additional commercial development in the range of 720,000 square feet of retail gross leasable area Approximately this amount of retail commercial floor space is warranted by 2010 by the additional demand resulting from the growing population and the recapture of shopping dollars that are currently leaving the community. It should be noted that additional lands should be designated to accommodate the non-retail service space that typically locates in the type of developments proposed. This would add an additional 15%-20% to the retail space warranted in the market analysis. The land use schedules including those that refer to the Neighbourhood Planning Units should be amended to reflect the revised hierarchy. Local and Neighbourhood Centres are currently designated as symbols on the Official Plan land use schedules with policies outlining the range of sizes and types of uses permitted in the centre. Not all of these centres have developed as the residential communities have been built. In addition there are applications before the municipality to redesignate some of the sites. An initial review of the experience over the past decade suggests that the two designations may be combined with the centres serving a more local function. The refinement of these areas should be addressed through the consultation stage and confirmed with the final recommendation report as to the locations of existing and planned local and neighbourhood centres. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 26 There are currently five Highway Commercial Areas designated by the Plan. The experience over the past decade suggests that some of these sites are not required for large scale retail uses and/or should be limited in scope in order to achieve the CPR review objectives of building and supporting the urban structure by focussing commercial development in key ares. One of these areas at Liberty and 401 is built out and no longer available for additional development. The second site is at Baseline Road and Waverly Road and includes the Torgan application and other lands. The Torgan portion of this site is designated and mostly zoned for commercial uses. This site also includes redevelopment potential of an existing transport depot. A third site, at the intersection of Highway 401 and Courtice is a deferred area. Development has not proceeded on this site and there are adjacent use permissions for employment areas. This site should be designated for light industrial purposes consistent with the northerly part of the designation and the adjacent lands. The fourth area in north Orono, the current site of the Co-Op should be retained. The fifth site is the location of the West Diamond/Players application. One area that will be required to be addressed is the continuation of the commercial land use policies in the Secondary Plans. There are currently a wide range of commercial designations in the Secondary Plans. These should be redefined as shown on Table 1 below, with the update to each Secondary Plan to provide for a consistent set of Secondary Plan commercial designations and policies. Table 1 – Secondary Plan Commercial Designations Current Commercial Secondary Plan Proposed Designation Designations Bowmanville East MCA Street Related Commercial Area Same Strip Commercial Area General Commercial Mixed Use Area Same Bowmanville West MCA Retail Commercial To be determined in Office Commercial Secondary Plan process Courtice Sub-Central Area Primary Commercial General Commercial Mixed Use Area Same Office Commercial Same Newcastle village Street Related Commercial Area Same Strip commercial Area General Commercial Mixed Use Area Same Port Darlington Marina commercial Same Village Commercial Same South West Courtice Convenience commercial Should be shown as a neighbourhood centre Exhibit 3, Recommended Policy Changes, details the recommended changes to the current policy framework and policies. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 27 SectionExisting Policy Proposed Policy Changes 10.1 Goals To develop the Central Areas as focal points of economic, Primary goal should be: social and cultural activities for various communities. To ensure there are a variety of locations for commercial uses to allow To provide other types of specialized commercial uses to meet the market function to provide a full range of choice for local resident needs. consumers. To respond and accommodate new trends in the commercial Add: sector and direct them to the appropriate locations To protect and foster the role of the downtowns. To develop the Bowmanville Regional Centre as an urban centre and the primary focal point for economic, social and cultural activities Clarington. Keep: To provide other types of specialized commercial uses at locations to meet resident needs. To respond and accommodate new trends in the commercial sector and direct them to the appropriate locations 10.2To provide for the development of the Bowmanville Main To provide for the development of the Bowmanville Regional Centre ObjectivesCentral Area as a Regional Centre. as a defined Regional Centre which consists of Uptown District and To integrate retailing with other traditional Central Area the Downtown District. functions. To continue the growth and development of commercial uses in a form To create Central Area people-oriented places. founded on strong urban design principles that provide an efficient To preserve and enhance the vitality and charter of the historic urban centre with pedestrian amenities and building styles that reflect downtowns the character and history of the community. To discourage strip mall expansions To preserve and enhance the vitality and character of the downtowns. To discourage/preclude strip mall expansions. To provide opportunities for intensification through new development. To develop both Districts as mixed-used centres including residential uses General Policies 10.3 General Central Areas shall contain Main, Sub and Local Central Areas There should be a section called which includes the Policies for following: Central Areas redevelopment and intensification of all commercial areas should be encouraged; all uses should be complementary to the intended commercial functions; DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 28 SectionExisting Policy Proposed Policy Changes no new Centres, Districts or Areas or major expansions to existing Centres, Districts or Areas save and except Local Centres and Neighbourhood Centres shall be permitted prior to the next OP review after 2010 Urban Design Principles: The current Urban Design principles should be further developed and -grid system of streets and walkways enhanced based on the recommendations in the final Urban Design Report. -integrated and diverse mix of uses -active street life through the provision pocket parkettes, outdoor patios, displays and other amenities -human scale, buildings of high architectural quality grade level doors and windows street benches, awnings and pedestrian scale lighting with streetscape amenities -buildings with a continuous facade -development within the historic downtown should complement existing buildings, consistent height setbacks, floor and ceiling levels -transit supportive environment -public safety 10.3.3 -all Central areas shall have mixed use developments - incorporate in the description of each designation 10.3.4. -redevelopment in the form of intensification - incorporate in the description of each designation 10.3.5 -no expansions to the Central Area shall be permitted unless - incorporate in the description of each designation part of a comprehensive Official Plan Review - replace with: 10.3.6 -any application for rezoning for retail commercial Applications to amend the Official Plan to expand any development in excess of 2500 square metres will require a Centre, District or Area or create a new Centre, District or Area will require retail impact study a market impact study to assess the impact on the planned function of the downtowns 10.3.7 Development criteria shall be implement in the review of This section should also be updated with the final urban design development applications: recommendations. -buildings shall be street-fronted and provide direct street access -parking areas should be sited to the side rear or underground -land use compatibility is to be achieved between commercial and residential uses through appropriate building siting, design and landscaping DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 29 SectionExisting Policy Proposed Policy Changes -landscaping shall be high quality -building form and siting shall minimize noise, wind and shadow impacts and enhance views -refuse collection shall be internal -loading and refuse should be screened -no open storage shall be permitted -common vehicular access and internal circulation linking service lanes should be provided New Section to be added on Bowmanville Regional Centre as follows 10.4 Main 10.4.1 Main Central Areas shall be developed as the main Central Area concentrations of urban activities within the Municipality providing a full array of retail and personal service, office, The Bowmanville Regional Centre shall be developed as the primary residential, cultural, community, recreational and institutional concentration of business activity within the Municipality providing a full uses. They shall function as a focal point, be places of interest array of retail and personal service, office, residential, cultural, community, for resident and foster a sense of local identity. recreational and institutional uses. It shall function as a focal point, be a place of interest for residents and foster a sense of local identity. The Bowmanville Regional Centre shall be comprised of the Uptown District and the Downtown District. Each of these areas shall have a unique character and function and shall be developed in accordance with the respective District Secondary Plans. The Uptown District may develop with variety of large format retail uses provided it is developed in accordance with strong urban design principles which are aimed at creating a sense of place and definition for the area. The creation of urban street blocks and maintenance of the grid road system in the Uptown District is critical for both traffic and pedestrian circulation. Infill and intensification shall be encouraged in the Uptown District. The Downtown District shall include the historic downtown and the east business district. The Downtown shall be focussed on the Main Street urban design principles. Automobile related uses shall be discouraged from historic Downtown. The east business area within the Downtown District shall provide for a mix DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 30 SectionExisting Policy Proposed Policy Changes of land uses. Redevelopment and intensification shall be encouraged to provide street related commercial uses with residential uses and the integration of historic structures into redevelopment proposals. Emphasis on creating a gateway into the Downtown District shall be made at the easterly limits of the east business area. The Secondary Plans shall provide for phasing of development where required. A full range of retail and service commercial uses shall be permitted in the Uptown District with the exception of professional and administrative offices. Professional and administrative offices shall be permitted in the office commercial area identified in the Secondary plan. Banks ,liquor stores and certain other uses may be limited. While the two Bowmanville Regional Centre districts are physically separated by the creek, the lands along Durham Highway No. 2 in between the two Districts shall remain designated for urban residential uses. Remove 10.4.2. Maximum gross leasable areas: Bowmanville East 60,000 square metres Bowmanville West 40,000 square metres Courtice 25,000 square metres Newcastle Village 15,000 square metres Remove 10.4.4 The maximum FSI within Courtice and Bowmanville shall not as the FSI limits have no effect as the parking and coverage exceed 1.5 while the maximum in Newcastle shall be 0.75 requirements effectively set lower possible FSI limits. New Section on Courtice West District 10.5 Sub-10.5.1 The Sub-Central Areas shall serve large segments of Central urban areas through the provision of uses that compliment the Areas Main Central area including mixed uses with retail, office, The Courtice West District shall serve the surrounding urban areas through residential, cultural, community, recreational and institutional the provision of uses that compliment the Bowmanville Regional Centre uses. including mixed uses with retail, office, residential, cultural, community, recreational and institutional uses. The Courtice West District shall be developed as an urban centre in conjunction with the adjacent westerly lands in Oshawa. Specific development policies and land uses shall be provided for in the DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 31 SectionExisting Policy Proposed Policy Changes Secondary Plan for the Courtice West District (formerly the Courtice Sub- Central Area Secondary Plan) New Section on Courtice Centre 10.4 Central (replaces Courtice main central area and Areas special policy area F) Courtice Centre will be made up of the previously identified Courtice Main Central Area. A Secondary Plan for the Courtice Centre shall be completed. The commercial focus in the Courtice Centre shall be in the previously identified Main Central Area. Local Central Areas will become Local Centres and the policies will be 10.6 Local 10.6.1 These areas are to serve as a focal point for residential further reviewed, maximum FSI will be removed as it has no effective Centralcommunities and provide for day to day needs. The maximum Areas FSI shall be 0.75 and development shall occur in accordance role with Table 10.1 Local Centres shall be planned and developed in a comprehensive manner and are to serve as a focal point for residential communities and provide for day to day needs. To be reviewed Local Centres shall be developed as mixed use areas containing commercial, residential, recreational, community, cultural and institutional To be reviewed uses. Commercial retail floorspace in Local Centres shall provide for a maximum amount of gross leasable area, in any once Centre, of 4,500 square To be reviewed metres. Add: Local Central Area – at Prestonvale Road and King Street 10.6.5 Local Central Areas are gathering places and should Local Centres are gathering places and should incorporate public squares. incorporate public squares where possible. Public squares shall be constructed either as a public parkette or as part of To be reviewed a commercial development. Keep Section 10.6.6. 10.7Consist of Neighbourhoods and Highway Commercial Areas Since all commercial areas are now Centres this section can be deleted. Commercial Areas To be reviewed 10.8 Neighbourhood Commercial New Section - Neighbourhood Centres DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 32 SectionExisting Policy Proposed Policy Changes To be provided to serve daily needs for residents and may Neighbourhood Centres shall serve daily needs for residents and may include small plazas, free-standing stores and offices and include small plazas, free-standing stores and offices and street-related street-related mixed use buildings. mixed use buildings. A maximum FSI of 0.3 shall not be exceeded in Neighbourhood Centres. A maximum combined FSI of 0.5 shall not be exceeded in uses with a mix of commercial and residential uses. To be reviewed 10.8.2 The maximum gross floor area shall not exceed 1,000 square metres. To be reviewed 10.8.3 In reviewing development applications in residential neighbourhoods the following site development criteria shall be implemented: -an FSI maximum of 0.3 -a maximum combined FSI of 0.5 where there are second floor residences -a maximum of 300 square metes of GFA for stores -direct pedestrian street access for stores 10.8.4 Floorspace limits in accordance with table 10.2 -remove 10.910.9.1 Areas are to serve specialized needs of residents on an New Section Highway Commercial Areas Highway occasional basis. Service and facilities will require large parcels Commercial of land, exposure to traffic and may require outdoor storage and Highway Commercial Areas are to serve specialized needs of residents on uses display. Uses to include home improvement centres, garden an occasional basis. Highway Commercial areas will generally require large centres, nurseries, restaurants, motels, hotels, service stations parcels of land, exposure to traffic and may require outdoor storage and and motor vehicle service establishments but not including display. Uses to include home improvement centres, garden centres, motor vehicle body shops nurseries, restaurants, motels, hotels, service stations and motor vehicle service establishments but not including motor vehicle body shops, retail warehouses or serve as a retail commercial area. 10.9.2 Highway Commercial areas shall be developed in Keep existing policy accordance with the following urban design principles: -a variety of urban forms may be building -consistency with setback and a harmonious style -automobile oriented environments -safe, well designed pedestrian walkways -co-ordinated landscaping and signage DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 33 SectionExisting Policy Proposed Policy Changes Keep and enhance 10.9.3 site criteria to include -FSI of 0.3 -sufficient parking with screening -safe, efficient access with integrated access -high quality landscaping -outdoor storage to be screed -unobtrusive loading an refuse -adequate setbacks and buffers from residential areas -requirement for a comprehensive development plan 10.9.5 -a retail warehouse is permitted greater than 4000 square Remove metres within the Highway Commercial areas provided; -use is too large to be compatible in Central Area -preparation of retail impact analysis -site is in close proximity to freeway interchange -anticipated traffic can be accommodated -vehicular access from arterial road 10.10 Service Stations Put all policies for service stations into general policies 10.3 Uses may include accessory uses such as repair, car washes Add: Service stations shall be permitted in all industrial and commercial and sale of confectionary items areas provided they are located on arterial roads. 10.10.2 Service stations may be established provided: -no more than 2 at any one intersection -maximum 10 square metres of confectionary items in residential areas -locations must not create congestion or endanger pedestrians -access shall be limited DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 34 Other Policies providing for Commercial Uses SectionExisting Policy Proposed Policy Changes 11. Employment Areas-11.4.2 The predominant use of land within Prestige No changes Prestige Employment Areas Employment Ares shall be professional, corporate and office buildings, data processing centres, research and development facilities, commercial or technical schools, and light industrial uses within enclosed buildings. Certain commercial, community and recreation uses, including banks, restaurants, athletic clubs, banquet facilities, and fraternal organizations, are permitted provided they are limited in scale and provide services to employees of the Employment Area. In addition, hotels, motels and trade and convention centres may be permitted by site-specific zoning amendment. Remove large retail warehouses as a Employment Areas-Light 11.5.2 Light Industrial Areas Permitted use. Industrial Areas The predominant use of land in the Light Industrial Ares shall be manufacturing, assembling, processing, fabricating, repairing, research and development and warehousing. commercial Certain , community and recreational uses, including banks, restaurants, athletic clubs, banquet facilities and fraternal organizations, are permitted provided they are limited in scale and provide services to employees Large scale retail warehouses of the Employment Area. may be permitted by amendment to this Plan subject to the provisions of Section 10.9.5 12. Rural Settlement Areas-12.4.1 Hamlets No changes HamletAllow service stations subject to locational criteria The predominant use of lands shall be single detached residential dwellings. Other uses such as schools, general stores community facilities, places of worship, , farm- home-based occupations, arts and craft shops, and related commercial uses are also permitted provided such DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 35 SectionExisting Policy Proposed Policy Changes uses are compatible with the surrounding uses and do not detract from the character of the hamlet. 16. Tourism Nodes and Special 16.2.5 The uses permitted at the Port of Newcastle tourism No changes Policy Areas node include a marina, a hotel, a theatre and other cultural specialty commercial uses, uses, restaurants, recreational uses, public parkland, boardwalks and similar uses appropriate to a waterfront tourism destination. Tourism Nodes and Special 16.8.2Special Policy Area F would be deleted and replaced with Policy Areas-‘F’-King Street Special Policy Area F is designated to provide for the more detailed policies and/or a secondary plan for the Corridor intensification of land uses along the King Street corridor. Courtice East Corridor The uses permitted in this designation include medium and high density residential housing, recreation, community facilities and institutional uses. In addition, limited office not to development is permitted. It is the policy of this Plan permit strip retail areas along King Street outside of Main and Sub Central Areas. Tourism Nodes and Special 16.10.1 No service stations or motor vehicle service delete Policy Areas – Special Policy establishments shall be permitted. A public use facility on a Area H – West Bowmanville site no less than 0.5 ha shell be developed. Development Gatewayshall be subject to urban design guidelines 17. Special Study Areas-17.2 A Secondary Plan shall be developed for the Courtice No changes –except to wording as this will be the Courtice Special Study Area No. 1-Main Central Area and address the long term evolution of Centre (see note*) Courtice Main Central Area the area as the centre of commercial, cultural, and community activity with a fully integrated array of land uses. 19. Transportation System-19.5.4. Notwithstanding all applicable provisions of Section No changes –except to wording/terms Arterial Roads 19, the design standards of arterial roads within Main and Sub-Central Areas and the Orono Local Central Area shall reflect the urban design objectives of this Plan and provide a high quality urban environment for pedestrians. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 36 Courtice Main Central Area – Draft Secondary Plan A Highway 2 Corridor and Main Central Area Study” was undertaken to develop a flexible policy framework for intensification and development along the Courtice corridor. A number of recommendations were made to establish Highway 2 as a “main street” for the Courtice Main Central Area. A Secondary Plan was prepared but was not adopted by Council and the area remains as a deferred policy in the current Official Plan. The key recommendations from the 2001 Secondary Plan which related to commercial development were as follows: The area is to be made up of the Courtice Main Central Area and the Courtice Highway 2 corridor. The Main Central Area is to function as the focal point of activity, interest and identity for the area. It is to be vibrant with shopping areas, range of housing and links to facilities. This area is proposed to have gross leasable area for commercial uses of 25,000 square metres. This area is to have the main concentration of retail uses. The Courtice Highway 2 Corridor area refers to the areas along Highway outside of the Main Central Area. This area is proposed to be developed primarily for residential uses with some small commercial uses. It is to be a mixed use area with the retail being of small scale and secondary to residential development. A Local Central Area is to be located at the intersection of Prestonvale Road and King Street. This area will need to be further studied and the market impact analysis should confirm that the current 25,000 square metres of gross leasable area is warranted. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 37 9. Current Applications Based on the market impact analysis and the recommended commercial policy amendments the following approach to the current applications for commercial use is recommended: Bowmanville There is potential for an expansion to the WBMCA or, alternatively a redesignation of the existing lands to accommodate some of the warranted floor space. The expansion alternative could include the first phase of the current applications in the Bowmanville west area requiring an Official Plan amendment. However the permission to expand or intensify should be completely conditional on achieving the land use, urban design and transportation objectives which are to be further addressed through the review of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan. The Torgan Highway Commercial site plan involves a new home improvement use, much of which is an existing zoning which grants development rights. The application to redesignate the Local Central Area in Bowmanville should be further reviewed as part of a review of all Local Central Areas during the consultation phase of the CPR. Courtice The Courtice area applications represent limited additional retail floor space and can be accommodated immediately in accordance with the market impact analysis. It is recognized that the Courtice Centre has existing permission for 150,000 square feet. Newcastle Village The applications in Newcastle Village also represent minimal additional retail and service commercial floor space which can be accommodated based on the market impact analysis. These applications are consistent with the recommendations of the CPR to further the role of the downtowns. Other The AYT application represents additional retail floor space in a location not identified as an urban centre in Clarington’s Official Plan. The market impact analysis illustrates that there may be a market demand by 2016 for additional retail space that would accommodate one or more developments totalling the size proposed. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 38 The proposed commercial policy amendments, however, continue to recommend that new development be focused in the identified centres. Should the current warranted space in the centres not be able to proceed in accordance with the required land use, transportation and urban design policies, alternative locations to meet the market demand should be considered which could include the AYT application as well as other sites. DRAFT CLARINGTON CPR FINAL REPORT December 17, 2004 39 Clarington Commercial Policy Review Retail Market and Impact Analysis Municipality of Clarington, Ontario Prepared for: The Municipality of Clarington Draft Date: December 17, 2004 urban Metrics inc. market,economic and strategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................................................................... ..7 2.STUDYAREA POPULATION AND EXPENDITURES.................................................................................................................................9 2.1SAD..............................................................................................................................................................................9 TUDYREAEFINED 2.2P.............................................................................................................................................................................................9 OPULATION 2.3E.........................................................................................................................................................................................9 XPENDITURES 3.RETAIL COMPETITION..............................................................................................................................................................................12 4.WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS.............................................................................................................................................................15 4.1WN-DSDSTMS............................................................................................................................16 ARRANTEDONEPARTMENTTOREPACE 4.2WDSDSTMS....................................................................................................................................16 ARRANTEDEPARTMENTTOREPACE 4.3WSS........................................................................................................................................................17 ARRANTEDUPERMARKETPACE 4.4WG/SFSS.........................................................................................................................18 ARRANTEDROCERYPECIALTYOODTOREPACE 4.5WHIS...............................................................................................................................................18 ARRANTEDOMEMPROVEMENTPACE 4.6WHAS.....................................................................................................................................................19 ARRANTEDOME AND UTOPACE 4.7SWS...........................................................................................................................................................20 UMMARY OF ARRANTEDPACE 5.IMPACT ANALYSIS....................................................................................................................................................................................22 APPENDIX A: ANALYSIS TABLES urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Executive Summary urbanMetrics inc. and Tate EconomicResearch Inc. have beenretainedby MeridianPlanning Consultants Inc. to undertake a retail market demand andimpactanalysis for the Municipality of Clarington asinput to theClarington Commercial Policy Review. The detailed background research is included in a document entitled“Clarington Commercial Policy Review, Background Data, Municipality of Clarington”, dated August 20, 2004. Additional Warranted Space Analysis Ourmarketanalysis has included estimatesof additionalwarranted space forsix major retailstore types, including:non-department store DSTM (departmentstore type merchandise),department store DSTM, supermarket,grocery/specialty food stores, home improvementandhome & automotive. A number of scenarios have been evaluated, as detailed in Appendix A, and outlined below: Scenario A – Market Growth Only – This scenario was includedto determine the future market opportunities in Clarington based on market growth and real growth only (i.e. assume inflow equates to outflow sales). Even without an increase in recapture fromoutside of Clarington, a significant amount of retail spacecould be accommodated in Clarington in future years. For example, by 2010, additional non-department store DSTM spacewarranted would amount to 208,000 squarefeet, at an average sales per square foot level of $275. Total selected retail space warranted amounts to approximatelyto 400,000 square feet by 2010 at an averagesales per square foot of $330. Scenario B – Base (used for the impact analysis)- This scenario assumes an opportunity for some recapture of Clarington residents’ expenditures currently being captured by retail facilities outsideof Clarington if certain additional commercial development occurs in Clarington. Based on the assumptions in this scenario, additional non-department store DSTM space warranted in Clarington by 2010 would approximate 400,000 square feet (at $275 persquare foot), with total retail space amounting to about 720,000 square feet (at an average of $325 per square foot). 1 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Scenario CHigher Recapture – – Thisscenario reflects higher ormore aggressive assumptions regarding recapture opportunities from outside of Clarington. In this scenario, the opportunity for additional retail space within Clarington is higher. For example, non-department storeDSTM space warranted would amount to 473,000 square feet by 2010 at $275 per squarefoot, with some 852,000square feet of total retail spacewarranted at $325 per square foot. Impact Analysis (Scenario B) In addition to ourcalculation of warrantedspace,we have alsoundertaken adetailed impact analysis based on Scenario B assumptions. The impact analysis assumes the following major retail proposals in Clarington with a first full year of opening in 2007 (as outlined in Table 13-B): West Diamond & Players site – Relocated Loblaws supermarket from ClaringtonCentre, proposedWal-Mart department store and ancillary retail and serviceuses (phase1 only). Valiant Properties – Expansion of Clarington Centre Zellers store and re-tenanting of former Loblaws space. Halloway Holdings Limited – Proposed HomeDepot store and ancillary retail space. Valiant Properties – Courtice Main Central Area Torgan Group – Assume that 75,000 square feet in this project will be large format non-department store DSTM uses. We have also included a number of otherretailcommercial applications in Bowmanville and Newcastle Village that would be morelocalserving. We have assumed for the purposesof our impact analysis, that only one home improvementcentre would be in operation by 2007.This doesnot preclude another store from entering the market beyond this periodfuture through increased recapture of sales from outside of Clarington, market growthopportunities(includingavailable residual sales from other store types which sell homeimprovement store merchandise), and sales transfers from existing stores in the local market. Our Scenario B analysis assumes that all of this proposed/designated retail spacewould open in 2006, with a first full year of operation in 2007. A directional impact analysis hasbeen undertaken which evaluates the potential sales impacts of the proposed/designatedspaceon all supermarkets and department stores in Clarington, as well as DSTM facilities in Bowmanville Mall, Other Bowanville East Main Central Area, Bowmanville West Main Central Area, Other Bowmanville, as well as east and west Clarington. 2 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis The following summarizesthe results of our impact analysis: Market Growth and Recapture Opportunities Exist that will Support Additional Retail Space in Clarington Forecast population growth in the Municipality of Claringtonwill result in significant market growth creating the need for additional retail space to serve this growth. By 2021, Clarington is expected to increase by some 35,800 persons. Claringtonresidents are currently spending a significant portion of their retail dollars outside of Clarington, and particularly in other Durham Region communities, such as Oshawa. As such, there is a significant opportunity to recapture a portion of these expenditureswith the addition of new retail facilities in Clarington. The following table illustrates the percentage andvolume of expenditures that Clarington residents currently make at selected major store types outside Clarington. CategoryPercentage of ClaringtonClarington Residents’ Residents’ ExpendituresExpenditures Outside Made In ClaringtonClarington (2003$) Supermarket66.9%$38.3million Department Store 17.0%$62.5 million Non-Department Store DSTM34.2%$137.4 million Home Improvement12.3%$15.9 million All proposed retail space, as evaluated in Scenario B, could be developed by 2007with additional opportunities for otherspace in the future. This would include space on other existing designated sites in Clarington (e.g. in Courtice) and well as the opportunity for expansion of existing proposed sites. Non-Department Store DSTM Analysis – Our analysis indicates that all the proposed non-department store DSTM space evaluated (354,100 square feet) could be developed by 2007,without critical impacts on the existingspace or designated sites within Clarington. 3 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Department Store Analysis – The analysis indicates that the proposedWal-Mart (Phase 1) could proceed by 2007 without critical impacts on the existing Zellers department store in Clarington Centre. Supermarket Analysis – Our analysis indicates that the proposedLoblaws relocation and expansion (Phase 1) could proceed by 2007 without sales impacts on existing supermarkets in Clarington. Home Improvement Centre- A home improvement centre can proceed by 2007, without critical impacts on existing retailers in Clarington. If should be noted that although only one home improvement centre has been evaluated, our analysis does not precludeanother store entering the market. With continued market growth, the availableresidual potential in other storecategories which sell homeimprovement merchandise, and the opportunity for increased recapture of sales from outside of Clarington in the future, this does not preclude another home improvement centrefromentering the market beyond 2007. NetWarranted Additional Space in Clarington Overall, theanalysis indicates that there are significant retail development opportunitieswithin the Municipality of Clarington in the short term. This proposed new retailspacewill allow Clarington residents to shop locally and will increase the strength andconvenienceof the retail environmentwithin the Municipality. The following graphs illustrate the net additionalspace warrantedin Clarington in 2010 and 2021 based on our Scenario B analysis. These space calculations have beenadjusted to exclude the proposedspace,asevaluatedin our impactanalysis. As indicated, by 2010,excluding the existing proposed space evaluated,approximately168,000square feet of additional retail spacewould be warranted (at the low endof the sales per square foot performancerange utilized).By 2021,over 1.0 millionsquare feet of additional spacewould be warranted, basedon these same sales performance levels, with some 603,000 squarefeet based on the high end of the sales per square foot range utilized. 4 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Scenario B: 2010 - NET ADDITIONAL WARRANTED SPACE IN CLARINGTON (net of proposals evaluated) (Excludes sales transfers from existing stores, the opportunity for sales transfers from one store category to another, and increased recapture opportunities) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 -40,000 -60,000 SupermarketDepartment StoreOther DSTMHomeImprovementHome and AutoSpecialty Food 21,700-17,700-42,100-16,90022,000-4,000 High Sales/Sq.Ft. Range 34,70013,30082,9005,10029,0003,000 Lower Sales/Sq.Ft. Range 5 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Scenario B: 2021 - NET ADDITIONAL WARRANTED SPACE IN CLARINGTON (net of proposals evaluated) (Excludes sales transfers from existing stores, the opportunity for sales transfers from one store category to another, and increased recapture opportunities) 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 SupermarketDepartment StoreOther DSTMHome ImprovementHome and AutoSpecialty Food 109,70061,300313,90026,10063,00029,000 High Sales/Sq.Ft. Range 141,700117,300580,90062,10086,00047,000 Lower Sales/Sq.Ft. Range 6 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis 1. Introduction urbanMetrics inc. (formerly the PricewaterhouseCoopersReal Estate Advisory Group)and Tate Economic Research Inc. have been retained by the MeridianPlanning Group as partofa consulting team to undertakeaCommercial PolicyReviewfor the Municipality of Clarington. In 2003, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) was retainedby Clarington and workcommenced on the Bowmanville West Main Central Area retail market and impactstudy. During the course of this 2003study, which was funded by a number of stakeholderswith major commercial development interests in Bowmanville, it was determined that the major retail development proposals in Bowmanville could not be considered without a comprehensive review of the commercialpolicies of the ClaringtonOfficial Plan. Given that the Municipality had notcontemplated undertaking areview of its Official Plan until after 2005, it was agreed by all parties that a CommercialPolicy Review component of the Clarington OfficialPlan could be advanced. The market research, the majority of whichwas undertaken in 2003, forms the basis for the CommercialPolicy Review. This research included: populationand retail expenditure forecasts; a telephonesurvey of Clarington residents;an interceptsurveyof Downtown Bowmanville shoppers; licence plate surveys at the Clarington Centre, Clarington Place, Bowmanville Mall and the Townline Centre in Courtice; an inventory of retail/space in Clarington;and the identification of proposed/designated retail/servicecommercialspace inClarington. Thisbackground data has been included in a separate document entitled“Clarington Commercial Policy Review, BackgroundData, Municipalityof Clarington”, dated August 20, 2004. Based on the background data, urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Researchhave prepared a detailed market and impact analysis which addresses Clarington’s futurecommercialspace needs to 2021. The intent of the analysis is to determine the magnitude of the retail commercial space which will berequiredtoservice population growth in Claringtonrecognizing recapture opportunities fromoutside Clarington and the need to minimizesales impacts on existingretail facilities/areas. Theresults of ouranalysiswillbe utilized as input to thedevelopment and review of options to be considered as part of the next stage of the commercial policy review and as input to the SecondaryPlanning process. The methodology utilized in our analysis is similar to that employed in other commercial policy review studies undertaken across Ontario. Using both quantitative and qualitative assessments, a residual expendituresalesapproach has been undertaken. This approachdetermines the difference between the existing expenditure potential of Clarington residents by major retailcategory and future expenditure potential. Through the application of sales per square foot productivity levels, this “residual”salespotential is then converted into estimatesof “warranted” additional space required in Clarington to serve the local market. 7 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis In any analysis requiring estimates of future conditions, it is necessary to make certain basic assumptions, as follows: Over the forecast period, to the year 2021, a reasonable degree of economic growth and stability will prevail in Canada, Ontario and specifically in the Municipality of Clarington. The population forecasts, which are based on Census data andinformation provided by the Municipality of Claringtonare assumed reasonable and will not vary significantlyfrom actual counts in the future. The varioussources employed in our analysis to calculate retail expenditures, base year Clarington shares or capturerates, and sales per square foot performance levels for the various retail store types analyzed are considered sufficiently reliable. All dollar references are in 2003 dollars, which exclude inflation. If for any reason there aresignificant deviations from any of theseassumptions, the report and its conclusionsshould be reviewed or re-examined. The detailed market analysis is presented in a series of tables which have been included in Appendix A of this report. 8 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis 2.StudyArea Population and Expenditures 2.1Study Area Defined In this report,the Study Area hasbeen defined as the MunicipalityofClarington. Based on the results of our licence plateand interceptsurveys in the Bowmanville Urban Area, on average, existing major retailnodes in Bowmanville captureabout three quarters of theircustomers from Clarington. This capture rate varies by location, with the Downtown having a higher capture rate. Courtice retail facilities only capture about half of their customers from Clarington. 2.2 Population For the purposes of our analysis, the year 2003is used as the base year which coincides with Figure 1: MUNICIPALITY OFCLARINGTON the date of the space inventory and telephoneconsumer survey. In thebase year 2003, it is POPULATION estimated that the Study Area or Municipalityof Claringtonpopulation approximates 77,200 2001 to 2021 persons. As indicated in Table 1, major concentrations of population include the Bowmanville 120,000 Urban Area with some 30,600 persons, and the Courtice Urban Area with 22,500 persons. 100,000 Based on the 2001 Census (adjusted for undercoverage) and the csb Development Charges 80,000 (2000)study population growth rates, by the year 2021, Clarington is forecast to increase by 60,000 Clarington Forecast Population Growth some 35,800persons. Of this growth over the forecast period, the Bowmanville Urban Area 2003 to 2021 = 35,800 persons would represent close to 50% of the total. 40,000 Bowmanville Share of Future Growth = 49% 20,000 2.3 Expenditures - Retail expendituresare a function of income levels. Based on a per capita income index that is 200120032005200720082010201320162021 closetothe provincial average (0.6% belowtheprovince), percapita expenditure indices for Clarington residents have been calculated for each store type analyzed. The market analysis includes the followingretailstore categories (Standard IndustrialClassification (SIC)based): 9 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis DepartmentStore Type Merchandise (DSTM) Stores: This includesboth departmentstores and specialty stores that typically specialize in one or more of the merchandise linescarriedby department stores. These specialty DSTM stores arereferred to as the non- department store DSTM category whichincludesapparel/accessories stores, home furnishings, personal health and beauty stores, general merchandisestores (including warehouse membershipclubs)and a wide rangeof other miscellaneous durables/semi-durable goods stores. Food Stores: This category includes supermarket, grocery storesand other specialty food stores. For the purposes of our analysis, the supermarket category has been analyzed separately. Figure 2: Home Improvement Stores: This includeshome CLARINGTON RESIDENTS' SELECTEDRETAILEXPENDITURES, 2003 Dollars($Millions) improvement centres, buildingcentres, plumbing and electrical supply stores that areclassified in the $1,000.0 Wholesale Tradecategory by Statistics Canada but which alsosell to the householdconsumer. In our $800.0 analysis of warrantedspace in thiscategory, an $600.0 adjustment has been made to the sales volume to include an estimate of wholesale trade sales $400.0 volume. $200.0 Home and Auto Stores: Includes in thisretailgroup $0.0 2003200520082010201320162021 areCanadian Tire stores and other tire, battery and $20.5$22.4$24.7$26.8$29.6$32.4$37.9 Home and Auto accessories stores. $18.1$19.6$22.1$23.6$26.2$28.8$33.9 Home Improvement $29.0$30.9$33.3$35.2$38.2$41.1$46.2 Grocery/Specialty Food $115.8$123.5$133.0$141.0$152.7$164.4$184.9 Supermarket It should be noted that in our analyses, all store types have $75.3$81.9$90.8$97.8$108.6$120.1$140.0 Department Store merchandise categories that overlap. For example, in the $208.8$227.0$251.7$271.3$301.3$333.1$388.3 Non-Department StoreDSTM DSTM category,warehousemembership clubs havea 10 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis significant food component, whereas somesupermarkets have a large general merchandisecomponent. Home improvement stores also offer similar merchandise assome DSTMstores, including hardwarestores and paint/paper stores. For thepurposes of ouranalysis,potential sales transfers from one store type to another have not been recognized in our analysis. Figure 2summarizes the forecast retail expenditurepotential ofClarington residentsfor selectedstoretypes, with DSTMcomprising the greatest portion of expenditures. In total, selected retail expenditureshave estimated to increase from $467.5 million in 2003 to$831.2million by 2021; a growth of $363.7 million. DSTM has been forecast to increase from $284.1 million in 2003 to $528.3 million by 2021; a growth of $244.2 million. 11 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis 3. RetailCompetition An inventoryof retail andservicespacewasconducted in the Municipality of Clarington in 2003. Figure3 illustrates the general location of this space. As detailed in our background report, total occupied retail/service space in Clarington amounts to 1.72 million square feet plus 71,100 square feet of vacant space. Therefore, the vacancyrate in Clarington is less than 4% whichsuggests a healthy retail environment. Figure 3: EXISTING RETAIL COMPETITION IN CLARINGTON MAPA-1: Existing Retail Nodes –Municipalityof Clarington 11 B Boowwmmaannvivillllee M Maallll(s(seeeeMMAAPP A- A-2)2) 22 B BoowwmmaannvviilllleeEEasast Mait Mainn C CeennttralralAArreaea ( (sseeee M MAAPPAA--22)) MAPA-2: Major Retail Nodes –BowmanvilleUrbanArea 33 C CllarinaringtgtoonnCCeentntrere(s(seeee M MAAPP A- A-22)) 44 B BoowwmmaannvviilllleeWWesest Mat Mainin Ce CennttrraallAArreaea ( (sseeee M MAAPPAA--22)) 5 O5 Otthheerr Bow BowmmanvanviilllleeUUrrbbananAArreaea 66 C Coouurrttiice Subce Sub--CCeennttralralAArreaea 7 O7 Otthheerr C CourourttiicceeUUrrbanbanAArreeaa 88 Ne NewwccasastltleeViVillllaagge Urbe UrbaannArAreaea 9 O9 OrrononooUUrrbbaannAArreaea 1100 Ot Othheerr Fo ForrmmeerrDaDarrlliinnggttoonnTToownwnsshhiipp 1111 O Otther Foher Forrmmer Clarer Clarke Tke Toowwnnshshipip 11 10 4 9 3 2 1 4 11 2 BBoowwmmananvivillllee M Maallll 8 1 22 BBoowwmmananvivillllee E Eaast Maist Mainn 63 7 CeCentrntraall A Arreaea 33 ClClariarinngtogtonn Ce Centrentre 5 BBoowwmmananvivillllee W WeeststMaiMainn 44 CeCentrntraall A Arreaea 12 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Figure 4 summarizes the distribution of space by major storetypeinClarington. As indicated, service spacecomprises the largest portion of space at 39%, followed by DSTM space(including department Figure 4: DISTRIBUTIONOF RETAIL/SPACE IN store andnon-department storeDSTM) at31%. Servicespace CLARINGTON(2003) Sq. Ft. GLA includes restaurants, personal services, entertainment, medical/dental, and various businessservices. Of the total space inventoried, the largest concentration of space is in the Vacant Non-Department Bowmanville Urban Area, which comprises about 60% of the 71,100 Store DSTM 4% space in Clarington, although itspopulation accountsfor less than 460,900 26% 40% of the total for the municipality. Services Department Store 699,430 90,000 There iscurrently one departmentstore in Clarington, the Zellers in 38% 5% theClaringtonCentre. Most newformat retail stores arenot Supermarket Other Retail 177,100 represented in Clarington, including a large format home 92,400 10% 5% improvement centre and Wal-Mart. Grocery/Specialty Home Improvement Food Canadian Tire Centres 100,800 86,000 15,800 6% 5% There are a numberof proposals for new formatretail storesand 1% otherretail/service space for which applications have been submitted to the Municipality. These applicationswere detailed in our background report. For the purposes of ourimpact analysis, we have evaluated the following major projects: Halloway Holdings Limited: OfficialPlan Amendment, rezoning andsubdivisionapplications havebeen submitted to expand 2 Clarington Placeby approximately 200,000 square feet (18,580m). The potential anchor tenant planned for this expansion isa Home Depot Home Improvement Centre that would consist of 83,894square feet and an additional 15,187square feet for an outdoor garden centre. The remainder of proposedspacewould be used for other retail and services uses, however, at this time no additional tenants have been identified. 13 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis WestDiamond Properties Limited & Players Business Park Inc. (Metrus Properties Limited): Official Plan amendment and rezoning applications have been submitted to redesignate the property from Highway Commercial to Main Central Area Retail 2 Commercial to permit the development of 33,100 m(356,000 square feet) of retail commercial floor space(includes Phase 1 - 294,326sq.ft. and Phase 2 - 61,359 sq.ft). Proposed stores include Wal-Mart and Loblaws, with the remainder of the proposed retailspaceplanned forother restaurant, DSTM andservice uses. A relocation of the Loblaws from the ClaringtonCentre is planned, with the vacated space likely to be developed for DSTM uses. Valiant Properties: This 15 acre zoned site is located in the Courtice Main Central Area and could accommodate 150,000 square feet. Torgan Group: This site, located in Bowmanville, isdesignated Highway Commercial. A site plan application has been submitted for a 246,400 square feet (22,903 square metres) development,which will likely includeapproximately 75,000square feet of non- department store DSTM uses in a big box format, plus a home improvementcentre of some 109,752square feet. A hotel is also planned on the site, subject to a rezoning application. AYT Corporation In addition tothese major applications, the has recently made an application for a 541,000square foot powercentredevelopmenton the north-west cornerof Bennett Road and Highway 401. This site is located in the Bowmanville Urban Area and is currently designated “Light Industrial Area”. This project is proposed to include a food store of 65,000 square feet, home improvement centre of 80,000 square feet, a 130,000 square foot department store, 10 other large formatstores, and 15,000 square feet of restaurant space.Recognizing that this application duplicates many of the uses already proposed,we have assumed for the purposes of ourimpact analysis that only one new departmentstore, home improvementcentre and food storewould be open by 2007. 14 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis 4. WarrantedSpaceAnalysis Our market analysis has included estimates of warrantedspace in Clarington for six major retail store types, including: non-department store DSTM (departmentstore type merchandise),department store DSTM, supermarket,grocery/specialtyfood stores, home improvement and home & automotive. These estimates of warranted space are based on a residual analysis which is consideredappropriate for long term land-use planning as it does not encroach on the sales of existing stores in Clarington to support additional space. For eachstore types, a number of scenarios have been evaluated as outlined below: Scenario A – Market Growth Only – This scenario was includedto determine the future market opportunities in Clarington based on market growth and real growth only (i.e. assume inflow equates to outflow sales). Scenario B – Base (used for the impact analysis)- This base or referencescenario assumes an opportunity for some recapture of Claringtonresidents’ expenditures currently being captured by retail facilities outside of Clarington if certain additional commercial development (as proposed) occurs in Clarington. Scenario CHigher Recapture – – Thisscenario reflects higher ormore aggressive assumptions regarding recapture opportunities from outsideof Clarington. It should benoted that for each of the three scenarios, our analysis excludes any adjustments in the existing percentage distribution of expendituresby store type (e.g. department store/non-department store DSTM share), sales transfers from existingstores in Clarington, or adjustmentson a storecategory basis for sales transfers that may occur from one majorstorecategoryto another given the merchandise overlapsbetween categories(e.g. from non-department storeDSTMto supermarkets). For those Scenarioswhich assumerecaptureof sales from outside Clarington, the forecast percentage shares have been held constant over the longer term forecast period analyzed. 15 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis The following summarizesthe results of our warranted space analyses, which have also been summarized in Tables 12-A, 12-B and12-C. 4.1Warranted Non-Department Store DSTM Space For non-departmentstore DSTM Clarington residents are currently spending some $137.4million in stores outside of Clarington,which represents almost66%of their expendituresfor this store type.In the future, withcontinued market growth, real growth and recapture opportunities, additional non-department store DSTM spacewill be warranted in this market. Scenario A (Table3-A) – Based on market growth and real growth,Clarington residentscould support an estimated 513,000square feet of non-department store DSTM space by 2021 at an average sales per square foot performance level of $350. Assuming inflow equalsoutflow, this would equate to additional spacewarranted in Clarington. Scenario B (Table 3-B)–With significant recaptureopportunities, an increase in the Claringtonshare from 34.2% to 52.5% over the forecast period would yield some 582,000 square feet of non-department storeDSTM space by 2021. This includes estimated inflow sales from outside Clarington of 35%. Scenario C (Table 3-C)– With higherrecapture opportunities than Scenario B (increase inshare to 57.5%), some668,000square feet would be warranted by 2021. 4.2Warranted Department Store DSTM Space Clarington residents arecurrently only spending 17% of their department storedollarsin Clarington. With $62.5 milliondollars currently flowing outside Clarington,opportunities exist to recapture a portion of these sales with new department store space in Clarington. Scenario A (Table 4-A)–Based on market growth andreal growth, Claringtonresidentscould supportup to 123,000square feet of additional department store DSTM spaceby 2021at an averagesale performance level of $525 (assumesWal-Mart). Assuming 16 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis inflow equalsoutflow, this would equate to additional spacewarranted in Clarington. It should be noted that department store chain sales levels can vary significantly. As such, additional space would be warrantedat lower sales levels. ScenarioB (Table 4-B)– With significantrecapture opportunities,an increasein the Clarington share from 17% to 47.5% over the forecast period would yield some 157,000 square feet of additional department store DSTM space by 2021(at $525 per square foot). This estimated increase in recapture assumes that Oshawa and other higher order centres in Durham Region with traditional departmentstores (i.e. Bay and Sears) would continue to exert an influenceon Claringtonresidents’ expenditures.Thisanalysis includes inflow sales from outside Clarington of 35%. Scenario C (Table 4-C) – With higher recapture opportunities than Scenario B (increase in share to 52.5%), some 178,000 square feet of additional space would be warranted by 2021. 4.3Warranted Supermarket Space Claringtonresidents are currently spending some $38.3 million in supermarkets located outside of Clarington, which represents about 33% of their expenditures for thisstore type. In the future,withcontinued market growth, real growth andrecaptureopportunities, additional supermarketspace will also be warranted in this market. It should be noted that our estimates of warranted space for thiscategory exclude non-traditional space estimates which would be transferred from other store types (e.g. DSTM). Scenario A (Table6-A) – Based on market growth and real growth,Clarington residentscould support an estimated 126,000square feet of additional supermarket spaceby 2021 at an average sale performance level of $410 per square foot. Assuming inflow equals outflow, this wouldequate to additional space warranted in Clarington. Scenario B (Table 6-B) – With recapture opportunities, an increase in the Claringtonshare from 66.9% to 75% over the forecast period wouldyield some 124,000 squarefeetof additionalsupermarketspaceby 2021(at $550 persquare foot). This includes estimated inflow sales of 10% from outside Clarington. 17 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Scenario C (Table 6-C) – With higherrecapture opportunities thanScenario B (increase in share to 80%), some 145,000 square feet would be warranted by 2021. 4.4Warranted Grocery/Specialty Food Store Space Clarington residentsare currentlyspending some $8.1 million in grocery/specialty food stores located outside of Clarington,which represents about 28% of their expenditures for this store type. In the future, with continued marketgrowth, realgrowth and recapture opportunities, additional grocery/specialty food store space will also be warranted in this market. Scenario A (Table 7-A)–Based on market growth andreal growth,Clarington residents couldsupport anestimated 43,000 square feet of grocery/specialty food store by 2021 at anaveragesales performance level of $400 persquare foot. Assuming inflow equals outflow, this wouldequate to additional space warranted in Clarington. Scenario B (Table 7-B) – With recapture opportunities, an increase in the Claringtonshare from 66.9% to 75% over the forecast period would yield some 46,000square feet of grocery/specialtyfoodstore spaceby 2021. This includes estimated inflowsalesof 12.5% from outsideClarington. ScenarioC (Table 7-C) – With higher recapture opportunities than Scenario B (increase in share to 85%), some 54,000 square feet would be warranted by 2021. 4.5Warranted Home Improvement Space Clarington residents are currently spending only 12.3% of their home improvement dollars in Clarington. Close to $16 million is currently beingcaptured by stores(e.g. HomeDepot) locatedin communities outsideof Clarington.Inthefuture, with continuedmarketgrowth, real growth and recapture opportunities, additional home improvement spacewill also be warranted in this market. 18 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Scenario A (Table 9-A)–Basedon market growth and real growth, Claringtonresidents could support up to 56,000 square feet of additional home improvementspaceby 2021 at an averagesalesperformance level of$400 persquare foot. Assuming inflow equals outflow, this wouldequate to additional space warranted in Clarington. Scenario B (Table 9-B) – With recapture opportunities, an increase in the Claringtonshare from 12.3% to 65% over the forecast period would yield some 101,000 square feet of additional home improvement store space by 2021 (at $400 per square foot). This includes estimated inflow sales of 30%, as well as wholesale trade of 30%. Scenario C (Table 9-C) – With higherrecapture opportunities thanScenario B (increase in share to 70%), some 110,000 square feet of additional home improvement storespace would be warranted by 2021. 4.6Warranted Home and Auto Space Clarington residents are currently spendingsome$4.8 million in homeand auto stores located outside of Clarington, which represents about 23.5% of their expenditures for thisstoretype.Therefore, for this store type themajority of Clarington residentsneeds are beingmet. In the future, however, with continued market growth, real growth and recapture opportunities, additional space home and auto space will also be warrantedin this market. Scenario A (Table 11-A) – Based on market growth andreal growth, Clarington residentscould support up to 46,000 square feet of additional home andautospace by 2021 at an averagesalesperformance level of $375persquare foot. Assuming inflowequals outflow, this would equate to additional spacewarranted in Clarington. Scenario B (Table 11-B)– With marginal recaptureopportunities, an increasein the Clarington share from 76.5% to 80% over the forecastperiodwould yield some 56,000square feet of additional home andautospace by 2021. Thisincludes estimated inflow sales of 30% from outsideClarington. 19 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis Scenario C (Table 11-C) – With higherrecapture opportunities than Scenario B (increase in share to 85%), some 63,000 square feet of additional spacewould be warrantedby 2021. 4.7 SummaryofAdditional Warranted Space Figure 5: Scenario B:SELECTED ADDITIONALRETAIL SPACE A summary of the amount of warranted additional retail WARRANTEDIN CLARINGTON (sq.ft.) space in Claringtonby majorstore type and scenario over the 2003 to 2021 period is presented in Table 12-A 1,600,000 (Scenario A), Table 12-B(Scenario B) and Table 12-C 1,400,000 (Scenario C). Figure 5, opposite, summarizes the additionalwarranted space inClarington based on 1,200,000 $300 Scenario B assumptions. 1,000,000 $325 800,000 $355 It should benoted that our analysisof warranted space $385 600,000 is considered a guidelineonly and must be evaluated in $410 400,000 the context of the assumptions utilized, including average sales per square foot levels, inflow and 200,000 recapture.In the longer term, increasedrecapture 0 200520082010201320162021 opportunities may exist which would increasewarranted 528,000672,000783,000952,0001,131,0001,445,000 $300 space.Ouranalysis does not include sales transfers 487,000620,000721,000878,0001,042,0001,331,000 $325 from existing retail stores in Clarington, however, this 451,000573,000667,000813,000964,0001,232,000 $355 does not preclude a specific development proposalthat 415,000527,000616,000751,000892,0001,139,000 $385 391,000495,000578,000703,000835,0001,066,000 $410 exceeds the available residual potential or warranted spaceestimate. It may be viable and acceptable from a 20 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis market impact standpoint if the level of sales transfers required from existing stores in Clarington and the expected rate of recovery ofthose sales is suchthat it does not create critical impact(i.e. store closure) or affect the planned function of the commercial structure in Clarington. When sales impact is of an extended duration, or the magnitude of sales impact is such that the resulting sales of existing stores declineto levelssignificantly below industry averages, thereby threatening the economic viability of existingstores, then thesales impact maybe termedcritical. A number of factors, however, mustbeevaluatedto determine the significance of impact. These factors include the element of time or sales recovery, aswell as the change in the level of sales. We would generallyconsidersales recovery (to at least currentlevels) withinat least three years to be reasonable in a free and competitive market economy. Furthermore,shouldsales levels fall significantly below current levels for a specific market or for an unreasonable period of time, then the impact may be termed “critical”. In a situation where impact is considered critical, however, it may not alwaysresult in store closings. The decision to close a store typically depends on a number of factors including existing sales levels achieved, individual operator’s resources, varying operating costs andthe retailers overall marketingstrategy. Even if a store does close, opportunities for remerchandising the spacemay be available. 21 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis 5. ImpactAnalysis We recognize that the introduction of new space in the market will likely cause some transfer of sales from existing stores, i.e. sales that would otherwisehavebeen captured by existing local stores. Theeffect of thenewdevelopment in Claringtonon local storeswill no doubt vary for individualretailers, dependingon store type andrange of merchandise sold.For DSTM storesandsupermarketsin Clarington we have evaluated the magnitude of thesesalestransfers and the potential impacton thecontinued viability of existing stores. These are the stores typeswhich represent the majority of retail space in Clarington and in Downtown Bowmanville. We have also includedananalysis for home improvement centre space, although no impact analysis hasbeen undertaken given the limited home improvement space existing in Clarington. The impact analysisassumes the following retail proposals, which also include a number of localserving proposals in Clarington (as outlined in Table 13-B): 1.West Diamond PropertiesLimited & Players Business Park Inc. – Relocated Loblaws supermarketfrom Clarington Centre, proposed Wal-Mart department store and ancillary retail and service uses. 2.Valiant Properties – Expansion of Clarington Centre Zellersstore (now open) and re-tenantingof former Loblaws space. 3.Halloway Holdings Limited – Proposed HomeDepot store and ancillary retail space. 4.Valiant Properties – Courtice Main Central Area. 5.Martin and Saraf - Bowmanville Local Central Areas 6.Dunbury and 564069 Ontario Limited – Newcastle Village 7.Torgan Group – 75,000 square feet of non-department store DSTM uses in a big box format For the purposes of ourshort term impact analysis, the AYT proposal has not been evaluated. In addition, we have also evaluated only one home improvement centrestore opening by 2007. 22 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis A directional impactanalysis hasbeen undertakenwhich evaluates the potential sales impacts of the proposed spaceon all supermarkets and the Zellers in Clarington, as well as other DSTM facilities in Bowmanville Mall, Other Bowanville East Main Central Area, Bowmanville West Main Central Area, Other Bowmanville,as well as east and west Clarington. Basedon the results of our analysis, all proposedspace evaluatedcould be developed by 2007 with additional opportunities for otherspace in the future. These proposed additions to the Claringtonmarket wouldbe sufficient to meet all additional DSTM, supermarket, and home improvement centre needs. There will be the need in the future for additional space beyond 2007, whichcouldbe located in various locations in Clarington. Non-Department Store DSTM Analysis – Our analysis indicates that all the proposed non-department store DSTM space evaluated (279,100 square feet) could be developed by 2007, without critical impacts on the existingspacewithin Clarington. Department Store Analysis – The analysis indicates that the proposedWal-Mart (Phase 1) could proceed by 2007 without critical impacts on the existing Zellers department store in Clarington Centre. Supermarket Analysis – Our analysis indicates that the proposedLoblaws (Phase 1) relocation and expansioncould proceed by 2007withoutsales impacts on existing supermarkets in Clarington. Home Improvement Centre – A new format home improvement centre can proceed by 2007, without impacts on existing retailers in Clarington. If another home improvement centre were to locate in the community, this store could be supported beyond2007 through market growth, increasedrecaptureopportunities, sales transfers from existingstores(including sales transfers from one storecategory to another). 23 urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors ClaringtonCommercial PolicyReview – Retail Market and Impact Analysis APPENDIX A: ANALYSIS TABLES urban Metrics inc. market, economic andstrategic advisors LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1Population Estimates 2001 to 2021 DSTM TABLE 2DSTM Expenditure Potential of Clarington Residents TABLE 3 - AScenario A - Market Growth OnlyNon-Department Store DSTM Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 3 - BScenario B - BaseNon-Department Store DSTM Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 3 - CScenario C - Higher RecaptureNon-Department Store DSTM Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 4 - AScenario A - Market Growth OnlyDepartment Store DSTM Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 4 - BScenario B - BaseDepartment Store DSTM Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 4 - CScenario C - Higher RecaptureDepartment Store DSTM Warranted Space Analysis Food Stores TABLE 5Food Store Expenditure Potential of Clarington Residents TABLE 6 - AScenario A - Market Growth OnlySupermarket Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 6 - BScenario B - BaseSupermarket Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 6 - CScenario C - Higher RecaptureSupermarket Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 7 - AScenario A - Market Growth OnlyOther Food (Grocery & Specialty Food) Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 7 - BScenario B - BaseOther Food (Grocery & Specialty Food) Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 7 - CScenario C - Higher RecaptureOther Food (Grocery & Specialty Food) Warranted Space Analysis Home Improvemen t TABLE 8Home Improvement Expenditure Potential of Clarington Residents TABLE 9 - AScenario A - Market Growth OnlyHome Improvement Store Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 9 - BScenario B - BaseHome Improvement Store Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 9 - CScenario C - Higher RecaptureHome Improvement Store Warranted Space Analysis Home and Aut o TABLE 10Home and Auto Expenditure Potential of Clarington Residents TABLE 11 - AScenario A - Market Growth OnlyHome and Auto Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 11 - BScenario B - BaseHome and Auto Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 11 - CScenario C - Higher RecaptureHome and Auto Warranted Space Analysis SUMMAR Y TABLE 12 - AScenario A - Market Growth OnlySUMMARY - Selected Retail Space Warranted in Clarington TABLE 12 - BScenario B - BaseSUMMARY - Selected Retail Space Warranted in Clarington TABLE 12 - CScenario C - Higher RecaptureSUMMARY - Selected Retail Space Warranted in Clarington IMPACT ANALYSIS (YEAR 2007 ) TABLE 13 - BScenario B - BaseProposed Retail Space Assumptions for Impact Analysis TABLE 14 - BScenario B - BaseNon-Department Store DSTM Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 15 - BScenario B - BaseNon-Department Store DSTM Impact Analysis TABLE 16 - BScenario B - BaseDepartment Store DSTM Warranted Space and Impact Analysis TABLE 17 - BScenario B - BaseSupermarket Warranted Space Analysis TABLE 18 - BScenario B - BaseSupermarket Impact Analysis TABLE 19 - BScenario B - BaseHome Improvement Warranted Space and Impact Analysis NET WARRANTED SPACE (Scenarios B and C ) TABLE 20Scenarios B and CSummary - Net Warranted Space Appendix A TABLE 1 CLARINGTON POPULATION ESTIMATES 2001 - 2021 (1 200120032005200720082010201320162021 Community of Bowmanville Estimated Population 28,40030,60032,80034,35035,10037,20040,400 43,300 48,100 Period Growth2,200 2,200 1,550 750 2,100 3,200 2,900 4,800 Average Annual Growth1,100 1,100 775 750 1,050 1,067 967 960 Community of Courtice Estimated Population 21,00022,50024,00025,60026,40028,00030,300 32,700 36,700 Period Growth1,500 1,500 1,600 800 1,600 2,300 2,400 4,000 Average Annual Growth750 750 800 800 800 767 800 800 Former Darlington Township Estimated Population 9,8009,90010,00010,06010,10010,20010,300 10,500 10,750 Period Growth100 100 60 40 100 100 200 250 Average Annual Growth50 50 30 40 50 33 67 63 Community of Newcastle Village Estimated Population 5,9006,3006,5006,6007,0007,5005,500 8,000 8,800 Period Growth400 400 200 100 400 500 500 800 Average Annual Growth200 200 100 100 200 167 167 160 Community of Orono Estimated Population 1,4001,4001,4001,4001,4001,4001,400 1,400 1,400 Period Growth- - - - - - - - Average Annual Growth- - - - - - - - Former Clarke Township Estimated Population 6,9007,0007,0007,0007,0007,0006,800 7,100 7,250 Period Growth100 100 - - - - 100 150 Average Annual Growth50 50 - - - - 33 30 TOTAL CLARINGTON Estimated Population 77,20072,900 81,500 84,910 86,600 90,800 96,900 103,000 113,000 Period Growth4,300 4,300 3,410 1,690 4,200 6,100 6,100 10,000 Average Annual Growth2,150 2,150 1,705 1,690 2,100 2,033 2,033 2,000 SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) The 2001 Census Figures have been adjusted for undercoverage by a factor of 1.038 (provincial level). Forecasts are based on the rate of growth projected in the csb inc. May 2000 Development Charges Study applied to the 2001 adjusted Census population, rounded to nearest 100 persons. Appendix A TABLE 2 CLARINGTON DSTM EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENT S 2003 2003 Dollar s Province of Ontario Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (1$3,594 Plus: Selected Wholesale (Computer/Office Supplies) (2$100 Per Capita DSTM Expenditures $3,694 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollar s Clarington Income Index To Province99.40 DSTM Index to Province99.64 Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (3$3,680$3,790$3,955$4,065$4,230$4,400$4,675 Population 77,20081,50086,60090,80096,900103,000113,000 Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions)$284.1$308.9$342.5$369.1$409.9$453.2$528.3 Department Store Share @ (426.5%26.5%26.5%26.5%26.5%26.5%26.5% Department Store Share Potential ($Millions) $75.3$81.9$90.8$97.8$108.6$120.1$140.0 Non-Department Store DSTM Share @73.5%73.5%73.5%73.5%73.5%73.5%73.5% Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)$208.8$227.0$251.7$271.3$301.3$333.1$388.3 Source: urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research 1) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005) and Monthly Retail Trade data. 2) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Wholesale Trade (special tabulation). 3)Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the DSTM regression equation of y = 40 + 0.6(x) where x is the income index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded) 4)Estimated based an evaluation of the survey results, the provincial average and knowledge of the local market. Appendix A TABLE 3- A CLARINGTON SCENARIO A - MARKET GROWTH ONL Y NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)$208.8$227.0$251.7$271.3$301.3$333.1$388.3 Total Additional Volume Available from Clarington Residents$18.2$42.9$62.5$92.5$124.3$179.5 Total Additional Space Supported by Clarington Residents (without Sales Square Feet Transfers from Existing Stores) (1 @$250 per square foot GLA73,000172,000250,000370,000497,000718,000 @$275 per square foot GLA66,000156,000227,000336,000452,000653,000 @$300 per square foot GLA61,000143,000208,000308,000414,000598,000 @$325 per square foot GLA56,000132,000192,000285,000382,000552,000 @$350 per square foot GLA52,000123,000179,000264,000355,000513,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACENOTES: : $137.4 million of Clarington residents non- Existing Clarington Share of Clarington Residents Expenditures34.2% Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$71.4department store DSTM expenditures currently going outside of Clarington. Therefore, Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3%$34.1 TOTAL SALES$105.5significant recapture opportunities. 460,900 Total Sq Ft GLA $230 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GL A Source: urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research Excludes sales transfer opportunities from existing stores (both in Clarington and outside (i.e. recapture)), rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft. gross leasable area. 1) Appendix A TABLE 3 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BAS E NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)$208.8$227.0$251.7$271.3$301.3$333.1$388.3 Clarington Share (%) (134.2%52.5%52.5%52.5%52.5%52.5%52.5% Clarington Share ($)$71.4$119.2$132.1$142.4$158.2$174.9$203.9 Less: Effective Competition$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$47.8$60.7$71.0$86.8$103.5$132.5 Plus: Inflow @35.0%(2$25.7$32.7$38.2$46.7$55.7$71.3 Total Additional Volume Available to Clarington Non-Department DSTM Stores without Sales Transfers$73.5$93.4$109.2$133.5$159.2$203.8 Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington without Sales Transfers/Recapture from Other Non-Department Store DSTM stores, Other Retail Stores and Department Stores (3 Square Feet @$250 per square foot GLA294,000374,000437,000534,000637,000815,000 @$275 per square foot GLA267,000340,000397,000485,000579,000741,000 @$300 per square foot GLA245,000311,000364,000445,000531,000679,000 @$325 per square foot GLA226,000287,000336,000411,000490,000627,000 @$350 per square foot GLA210,000267,000312,000381,000455,000582,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE : Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$71.4 Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3%$34.1 TOTAL SALES$105.5 Total Sq Ft GLA460,900 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GL$230 A Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003). 2) urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research estimate based on licence plate surveys conducted in Bowmanville and the location of proposed/existing space. 3) Rounded to the nearest 1,000 square feet Gross Leasable Area. Appendix A TABLE 3 - C CLARINGTON SCENARIO C: HIGHER RECAPTUR E NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)$208.8$227.0$251.7$271.3$301.3$333.1$388.3 Clarington Share (%) (134.2%57.5%57.5%57.5%57.5%57.5%57.5% Clarington Share ($)$71.4$130.5$144.7$156.0$173.2$191.5$223.3 Less: Effective Competition$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$59.1$73.3$84.6$101.8$120.1$151.9 Plus: Inflow @35.0%(2$31.8$39.5$45.6$54.8$64.7$81.8 Total Additional Volume Available to Clarington Non-Department DSTM Stores without Sales Transfers$90.9$112.8$130.2$156.6$184.8$233.7 Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington without Sales Transfers/Recapture from Other Non-Department Store DSTM stores, Other Retail Stores and Department Stores (3 Square Feet @$250 per square foot GLA364,000451,000521,000626,000739,000935,000 @$275 per square foot GLA331,000410,000473,000569,000672,000850,000 @$300 per square foot GLA303,000376,000434,000522,000616,000779,000 @$325 per square foot GLA280,000347,000401,000482,000569,000719,000 @$350 per square foot GL 260,000322,000372,000447,000528,000668,000 A EXISTING CLARINGTON NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE : Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$71.4 Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3%$34.1 TOTAL SALES$105.5 Total Sq Ft GLA460,900 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GL$230 A Source: urbanMetrics inc and Tate Economic Research 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003). 2) urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research estimate based on licence plate surveys conducted in Bowmanville and the location of proposed/existing space. 3) Rounded to the nearest 1,000 square feet Gross Leasable Area. Appendix A TABLE 4-A CLARINGTON SCENARIO A - MARKET GROWTH ONLY DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollar s Clarington Department Store Expenditures$75.3$81.9$90.8$97.8$108.6$120.1$140.0 Total Additional Volume Available from Clarington Residents$6.6$15.5$22.5$33.3$44.8$64.7 Total Additional Space Supported by Clarington Residents (without Sales Transfers from Existing Stores) (1 Square Feet GLA @$400 per square foot GLA17,00039,00056,00083,000112,000162,000 @$425 per square foot GLA16,00036,00053,00078,000105,000152,000 @$450 per square foot GLA15,00034,00050,00074,000100,000144,000 @$500 per square foot GLA13,00031,00045,00067,00090,000129,000 @$525 per square foot GLA13,00030,00043,00063,00085,000123,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE : NOTES: Existing Clarington Share of Clarington Residents Expenditures16.9% $62.5 million of Clarington residents department Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$12.8 Plus: Estimated Inflow 30%$5.5store expenditures currently going outside of Clarington. Therefore, significant recapture TOTAL SALES$18.3 90,000 Total Sq Ft GLAopportunities. Existing Sales Per Square Feet GL$205 A Source: urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Research 1)Excludes sales transfer opportunities from existing stores (both in Clarington and outside (i.e. recapture)), rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft. gross leasable area. Appendix A TABLE 4 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BASE DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollar s Clarington Department Store Expenditures$75.3$81.9$90.8$97.8$108.6$120.1$140.0 Clarington Share (%) (117.0%47.5%47.5%47.5%47.5%47.5%47.5% Clarington Share ($)$12.8$38.9$43.1$46.5$51.6$57.0$66.5 Less: Effective Competition$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$26.1$30.3$33.7$38.8$44.2$53.7 Plus Inflow @35%(2$14.1$16.3$18.1$20.9$23.8$28.9 Total Additional Potential Available for Department Store Space in Clarington (Excluding Sales Transfers)$40.2$46.6$51.8$59.7$68.0$82.6 Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington without Sales Transfers/Recapture from Non-Department Store DSTM stores, Other Retail Stores and Other Department Stores (3 Square Feet GLA @$400 per square foot GLA101,000117,000130,000149,000170,000207,000 @$425 per square foot GLA95,000110,000122,000140,000160,000194,000 @$450 per square foot GLA89,000104,000115,000133,000151,000184,000 @$500 per square foot GLA80,00093,000104,000119,000136,000165,000 @$525 per square foot GLA77,00089,00099,000114,000130,000157,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE: Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$12.8 Plus: Estimated Inflow 30%$5.5 TOTAL SALES$18.3 Total Sq Ft GLA90,000 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA$205 Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003). 1) Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Clarington Centre and other locations in Bowmanville. 2) Rounded to the nearest 1,000 square feet gross leasable area. 3) Appendix A TABLE 4 - C CLARINGTON SCENARIO C: HIGHER RECAPTURE DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollar s Clarington Department Store Expenditures$75.3$81.9$90.8$97.8$108.6$120.1$140.0 Clarington Share (%) (117.0%52.5%52.5%52.5%52.5%52.5%52.5% Clarington Share ($)$12.8$43.0$47.7$51.3$57.0$63.1$73.5 Less: Effective Competition$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$30.2$34.9$38.5$44.2$50.3$60.7 Plus Inflow @35%(2$16.3$18.8$20.7$23.8$27.1$32.7 Total Additional Potential Available for Department Store Space in Clarington (Excluding Sales Transfers)$46.5$53.7$59.2$68.0$77.4$93.4 Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington without Sales Transfers/Recapture from Non-Department Store DSTM stores, Other Retail Stores and Other Department Stores (3 Square Feet GLA @$400 per square foot GLA116,000134,000148,000170,000194,000234,000 @$425 per square foot GLA109,000126,000139,000160,000182,000220,000 @$450 per square foot GLA103,000119,000132,000151,000172,000208,000 @$500 per square foot GLA93,000107,000118,000136,000155,000187,000 @$525 per square foot GLA89,000102,000113,000130,000147,000178,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE : Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$12.8 Plus: Estimated Inflow 30%$5.5 TOTAL SALES$18.3 Total Sq Ft GLA90,000 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GL$205 A Source: urbanMetrics inc and Tate Economic Research 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003). 2) Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Clarington Centre and other locations in Bowmanville. 3) Rounded to the nearest 1,000 square feet gross leasable area. Appendix A TABLE 5 CLARINGTON FOOD STORE EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENT S 2003 2003 Dollar s Province of Ontario Per Capita Food Store Expenditures (1$1,875 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollar s Clarington Income Index to Province99.4 Per Capita Food StoreExpenditures (2$1,875$1,895$1,920$1,940$1,970$1,995$2,045 Population (From Table 1)77,20081,50086,60090,80096,900103,000113,000 Total Food Store Potential ($ Millions)$144.8$154.4$166.3$176.2$190.9$205.5$231.1 Supermarket Share @ (380.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0% Supermarket Share Potential ($Millions) $115.8$123.5$133.0$141.0$152.7$164.4$184.9 Other Food (Grocery/Specialty Food) Share @ (320.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0% Other Food (Grocery/Specialty Food) Share ($Millions)$29.0$30.9$33.3$35.2$38.2$41.1$46.2 Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005). 2)Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the Food and Grocery regression equation of y = 91.3 + 0.087(x) where x is the income index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 0.5% per year. 3)Based on our review of the inventory of space and provincial average for 2003. Appendix A TABLE 6- A CLARINGTON SCENARIO A: MARKET GROWTH ONL Y SUPERMARKET WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollar s Clarington Supermarket Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $115.8$123.5$133.0$141.0$152.7$164.4$184.9 Total Additional Volume Available from Clarington Residents$7.7$17.2$25.2$36.9$48.6$69.1 Total Additional Space Supported by Clarington Residents (without Sales Transfers from Existing Stores) (1 Square Feet @$450Per Sq. Ft. GLA17,00038,00056,00082,000108,000154,000 @$475Per Sq. Ft. GLA16,00036,00053,00078,000102,000145,000 @$500Per Sq. Ft. GLA15,00034,00050,00074,00097,000138,000 @$525Per Sq. Ft. GLA15,00033,00048,00070,00093,000132,000 @$550Per Sq. Ft. GLA14,00031,00046,00067,00088,000126,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON SUPERMARKET SPACE: NOTES: Existing Clarington Share of Clarington Residents Expenditures66.9% $38.3 million of Clarington residents supermarket Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$77.5 expenditures currently going outside of Clarington. Plus: Estimated Inflow @19.8%$19.1 Therefore, significant recapture opportunities exist. TOTAL SALES$96.6 177,100 Total Sq Ft GLA $545 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1)Excludes sales transfer opportunities from existing stores (both in Clarington and outside (i.e. recapture)), rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft. gross leasable area. Appendix A TABLE 6 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BASE SUPERMARKET WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003 Dollars2003200520082010201320162021 Clarington Supermarket Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $115.8$123.5$133.0$141.0$152.7$164.4$184.9 Clarington Share (%) (166.9%75.0%75.0%75.0%75.0%75.0%75.0% Clarington Share ($)$77.5$92.6$99.8$105.8$114.5$123.3$138.7 Less: Effective Competition$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentN/A$15.1$22.3$28.3$37.0$45.8$61.2 Plus: Inflow @10.0%(2$1.7$2.5$3.1$4.1$5.1$6.8 Total Additional Volume Available to Clarington Supermarkets without Sales Transfers$16.8$24.8$31.4$41.1$50.9$68.0 Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington without Sales Transfers/Recapture from Specialty Food Stores, Non-Department Store DSTM stores (including Costco/Sams Club), Other Retail Stores and Department Stores (3 Square Feet @$450Per Sq. Ft. GLA37,00055,00070,00091,000113,000151,000 @$475Per Sq. Ft. GLA35,00052,00066,00087,000107,000143,000 @$500Per Sq. Ft. GLA34,00050,00063,00082,000102,000136,000 @$525Per Sq. Ft. GLA32,00047,00060,00078,00097,000130,000 @$550Per Sq. Ft. GLA31,00045,00057,00075,00093,000124,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON SUPERMARKET SPACE: Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$77.5 Plus: Estimated Inflow @19.8%$19.1 TOTAL SALES$96.6 Total Sq Ft GLA177,100 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA$545 Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1)Year 2003 based on the results of the telephone survey. 2)urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research estimate. 3)Rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft.. Appendix A TABLE 6 - C CLARINGTON SCENARIO C: HIGHER RECAPTURE SUPERMARKET WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington Supermarket Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $115.8$123.5$133.0$141.0$152.7$164.4$186.6 Clarington Share (%) (166.9%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0% Clarington Share ($)$77.5$98.8$106.4$112.8$122.2$131.5$149.3 Less: Effective Competition$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/$21.3$28.9$35.3$44.7$54.0$71.8 A Plus: Inflow @10.0%$2.4$3.2$3.9$5.0$6.0$8.0 (2 Total Additional Volume Available to Clarington Supermarkets without Sales Transfers$23.7$32.1$39.2$49.7$60.0$79.8 Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington without Sales Transfers/Recapture from Specialty Food Stores, Non-Department Store DSTM stores (including Costco/Sams Club), Other Retail Stores and Department Stores (3 Square Feet @$450Per Sq. Ft. GLA53,00071,00087,000110,000133,000177,000 @$475Per Sq. Ft. GLA50,00068,00083,000105,000126,000168,000 @$500Per Sq. Ft. GLA47,00064,00078,00099,000120,000160,000 @$525Per Sq. Ft. GLA45,00061,00075,00095,000114,000152,000 @$550Per Sq. Ft. GLA43,00058,00071,00090,000109,000145,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON SUPERMARKET SPACE: Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$77.5 Plus: Estimated Inflow @19.8%$19.1 TOTAL SALES$96.6 Total Sq Ft GLA177,100 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA$545 Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1)Year 2003 based on the results of the telephone survey. 2)urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research estimate. 3)Rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft.. Appendix A TABLE 7- A CLARINGTON SCENARIO A: MARKET GROWTH ONL Y OTHER FOOD STORE (GROCERY & SPECIALTY FOOD) WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollar s Clarington Other Food Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $29.0$30.9$33.3$35.2$38.2$41.1$46.2 Total Additional Volume Available from Clarington Residents$1.9$4.3$6.2$9.2$12.1$17.2 Total Additional Space Supported by Clarington Residents (without Sales Transfers from Existing Stores) (1 Square Feet @$300Per Sq. Ft. GLA6,00014,00021,00031,00040,00057,000 @$325Per Sq. Ft. GLA6,00013,00019,00028,00037,00053,000 @$350Per Sq. Ft. GLA5,00012,00018,00026,00035,00049,000 @$375Per Sq. Ft. GLA5,00011,00017,00025,00032,00046,000 @$400Per Sq. Ft. GL5,00011,00016,00023,00030,00043,000 A EXISTING CLARINGTON OTHER FOOD STORE SPACE : NOTES: Existing Clarington Share of Clarington Residents Expenditures72.0% $8.1 million of Clarington residents other food store Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$20.9 expenditures currently going outside of Clarington. Plus: Estimated Inflow @ 12.5%$3.0 Therefore, some recapture opportunities exist. TOTAL SALES$23.9 100,800 Total Sq Ft GLA Existing Sales Per Square Feet GL$235 A SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Research 1)Excludes sales transfer opportunities from existing stores (both in Clarington and outside (i.e. recapture)), rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft. gross leasable area. Appendix A TABLE 7 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BASE OTHER FOOD STORE (GROCERY & SPECIALTY FOOD) WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($Millions) 2003 Dollars2003200520082010201320162021 Clarington Other Food Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $29.0$30.9$33.3$35.2$38.2$41.1$46.2 Clarington Share (%) (172.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0% Clarington Share ($)$20.9$24.7$26.6$28.2$30.6$32.9$37.0 Less: Effective Competition$20.9$20.9$20.9$20.9$20.9$20.9$20.9 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$3.8$5.7$7.3$9.7$12.0$16.1 Plus: Inflow @12.5%(2$0.5$0.8$1.0$1.4$1.7$2.3 Total Additional Volume Available to Clarington Other Food Store without Sales Transfers$4.3$6.5$8.3$11.1$13.7$18.4 Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington without Sales Transfers/Recapture from Supermarkets, Non-Department Store DSTM stores, Other Retail Stores an Department Stores (3 Square Feet @$300Per Sq. Ft. GLA14,00022,00028,00037,00046,00061,000 @$325Per Sq. Ft. GLA13,00020,00026,00034,00042,00057,000 @$350Per Sq. Ft. GLA12,00019,00024,00032,00039,00053,000 @$375Per Sq. Ft. GLA11,00017,00022,00030,00037,00049,000 @$400Per Sq. Ft. GLA11,00016,00021,00028,00034,00046,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON OTHER FOOD STORE SPACE: Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$20.9 Plus: Estimated Inflow @ 12.5%$3.0 TOTAL SALES$23.9 Total Sq Ft GLA100,800 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA$235 SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1)Year 2003 based on the results of the telephone survey. 2)urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research estimate. 3)Rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft.. Appendix A TABLE 7 - C CLARINGTON SCENARIO C: HIGHER RECAPTURE OTHER FOOD STORE (GROCERY & SPECIALTY FOOD) WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington Other Food Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $29.0$30.9$33.3$35.2$38.2$41.1$46.7 Clarington Share (%) (172.0%85.0%85.0%85.0%85.0%85.0%85.0% Clarington Share ($)$20.9$26.3$28.3$29.9$32.5$34.9$39.7 Less: Effective Competition$20.9$20.9$20.9$20.9$20.9$20.9$20.9 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$5.4$7.4$9.0$11.6$14.0$18.8 Plus: Inflow @12.5%$0.8$1.1$1.3$1.7$2.0$2.7 (2 Total Additional Volume Available to Clarington Other Food Store without Sales Transfers$6.2$8.5$10.3$13.3$16.0$21.5 Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington without Sales Transfers/Recapture from Supermarkets, Non-Department Store DSTM stores, Other Retail Stores and Department Stores (3 Square Feet @$300Per Sq. Ft. GLA21,00028,00034,00044,00053,00072,000 @$325Per Sq. Ft. GLA19,00026,00032,00041,00049,00066,000 @$350Per Sq. Ft. GLA18,00024,00029,00038,00046,00061,000 @$375Per Sq. Ft. GLA17,00023,00027,00035,00043,00057,000 @$400Per Sq. Ft. GLA16,00021,00026,00033,00040,00054,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON OTHER FOOD STORE SPACE: Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$20.9 Plus: Estimated Inflow @ 12.5%$3.0 TOTAL SALES$23.9 Total Sq Ft GLA100,800 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA$235 SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1)Year 2003 based on the results of the telephone survey. 2)urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research estimate. 3)Rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft.. Appendix A TABLE 8 CLARINGTON SCENARIO A: MARKET GROWTH ONL Y HOME IMPROVEMENT EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENT S 2003 2003 Dollar s Province of Ontario Per Capita HI Expenditures (Wholesale Trade Component Only) (1$236 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollar s Clarington Income Index To Province99.40 HI Index to Province99.64 Per Capita HI Expenditures Household Consumers (2$235$240$255$260$270$280$300 Population (From Table 1)77,20081,50086,60090,80096,900103,000113,000 Total HI Potential ($ Millions)$18.1$19.6$22.1$23.6$26.2$28.8$33.9 Source: urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research 1 ) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Monthly Wholesale Trade data. 2)Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the DSTM regression equation of y = 40 + 0.6(x) where x is the income index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded) Appendix A TABLE 9- A CLARINGTO N SCENARIO A: MARKET GROWTH ONLY HOME IMPROVEMENT STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington HI Expenditure Potential from Clarington Household Consumers$18.1$19.6$22.1$23.6$26.2$28.8$33.9 Total Additional Volume Available from Clarington residents (household Consumers)$1.5$4.0$5.5$8.1$10.7$15.8 Plus: Wholesale Trade @ 30%$0.6$1.7$2.4$3.5$4.6$6.8 Total Additional Sales Volume Available from Clarington Household Consumers and Wholesale Trade (excluding sales transfer opportunties from DSTM HIRM stores and other HIRM stores, including Canadian Tire)$2.1$5.7$7.9$11.6$15.3$22.6 Additional Space Supported by Clarington Residents (without sales transfer opportunities from existing stores) 1) Square Feet GLA @$300 per square foot GLA7,00019,00026,00039,00051,00075,000 @$320 per square foot GLA7,00018,00025,00036,00048,00071,000 @$350 per square foot GLA6,00016,00022,00033,00044,00064,000 @$375 per square foot GLA6,00015,00021,00031,00041,00060,000 @$400 per square foot GLA5,00014,00020,00029,00038,00056,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON HOME IMPROVEMENT CENTRE SPACE : NOTES: Existing Clarington Share of Clarington Residents Expenditures12.3% $15.9 million of Clarington residents non- Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$2.2 department store DSTM expenditures currently Plus: Estimated Inflow @ 35%$1.2 going outside of Clarington. Therefore, significant TOTAL SALES$3.4 recapture opportunity exists. TOTAL SALES INCLUDING Wholesale Trade @ 30% $4.9 15,800 Total Sq Ft GLA (home improvement centre only) $310 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Research 1)Excludes sales transfer opportunities from existing stores (both in Clarington and outside (i.e. recapture)), rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft. gross leasable area. Appendix A TABLE 9 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BASE HOME IMPROVEMENT STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington HI Expenditure Potential$18.1$19.6$22.1$23.6$26.2$28.8$33.9 Clarington Share (%) (112.3%65.0%65.0%65.0%65.0%65.0%65.0% Clarington Share ($)$2.2$12.7$14.4$15.3$17.0$18.7$22.0 Less: Effective Competition$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentN/$10.5$12.2$13.1$14.8$16.5$19.8 sA Plus: Inflow @30.0% $4.5$5.2$5.6$6.3$7.1$8.5 Total Additional Volume Available for Clarington Home Improvement Stores from Household Consumers$15.0$17.4$18.7$21.1$23.6$28.3 Plus: Wholesale Trade @ 30%$6.4$7.5$8.0$9.0$10.1$12.1 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES VOLUME FOR HOME IMPROVEMENT STORES IN CLARINGTON (excluding sales transfer opportunties from DSTM HIRM stores and other HIRM stores, including Canadian Tire)$21.4$24.9$26.7$30.1$33.7$40.4 Additional Warranted Space in Clarington Square Feet GLA @$300 per square foot GLA71,00083,00089,000100,000112,000135,000 @$320 per square foot GLA67,00078,00083,00094,000105,000126,000 @$350 per square foot GLA61,00071,00076,00086,00096,000116,000 @$375 per square foot GLA57,00066,00071,00080,00090,000108,000 @$400 per square foot GLA54,00062,00067,00075,00084,000101,000 Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for home improvement centre stores only. 2) Rounded to nearest 1,000 square feet GLA. Appendix A TABLE 9 - C CLARINGTON SCENARIO C: HIGHER RECAPTURE HOME IMPROVEMENT STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington HI Expenditure Potential$18.1$19.6$22.1$23.6$26.2$28.8$33.9 Clarington Share (%) (112.3%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0% Clarington Share ($)$2.2$13.7$15.5$16.5$18.3$20.2$23.7 Less: Effective Competition$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$11.5$13.3$14.3$16.1$18.0$21.5 Plus: Inflow @30.0% $4.9$5.7$6.1$6.9$7.7$9.2 Total Additional Volume Available for Clarington Home Improvement $16.4$19.0$20.4$23.0$25.7$30.7 Stores from Household Consumers Plus: Wholesale Trade @ 30%$7.0$8.1$8.7$9.9$11.0$13.2 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES VOLUME FOR HOME IMPROVEMENT STORE IN CLARINGTON (excluding sales transfer opportunties from $23.4$27.1$29.1$32.9$36.7$43.9 DSTM HIRM stores and other HIRM stores, including Canadian Tire) dditional Warranted Space in ClaringtonSquare Feet GL AA @78,00090,00097,000110,000122,000146,000 $300 per square foot GLA @73,00085,00091,000103,000115,000137,000 $320 per square foot GLA @67,00078,00083,00094,000105,000125,000 $350 per square foot GLA @ 62,00072,00078,00088,00098,000117,000 $375 per square foot GLA @59,00068,00073,00082,00092,000110,000 $400 per square foot GLA Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for home improvement centre stores only. 2) Rounded to nearest 1,000 square feet GLA. Appendix A TABLE 10 CLARINGTON HOME AND AUTO EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENT S 2003 2003 Dollar s Province of Ontario Per Capita Home & Auto Expenditures (1$266 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollar s Clarington Income Index To Province99.40 Home & Auto Index to Province99.64 Per Capita Home & Auto Expenditures (2$265$275$285$295$305$315$335 Population (From Table 1)77,20081,50086,60090,80096,900103,000113,000 Total Home & Auto Potential ($ Millions)$20.5$22.4$24.7$26.8$29.6$32.4$37.9 Source: urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research 1) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Monthly Retail Trade data. 2)Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the DSTM regression equation of y = 40 + 0.6(x) where x is the income index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded) Appendix A TABLE 11-A CLARINGTON SCENARIO A: MARKET GROWTH ONLY HOME AND AUTO WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington Home & Auto Expenditure Potential$20.5$22.4$24.7$26.8$29.6$32.4$37.9 Total Additional Volume Available from Clarington residents $1.9$4.2$6.3$9.1$11.9$17.4 Total Additional Space Supported by Clarington Residents (without Sales Transfers from Existing Stores) (1 Square Feet GLA @$275 per square foot GLA7,00015,00023,00033,00043,00063,000 @$300 per square foot GLA6,00014,00021,00030,00040,00058,000 @$325 per square foot GLA6,00013,00019,00028,00037,00054,000 @$350 per square foot GLA5,00012,00018,00026,00034,00050,000 @$375 per square foot GLA5,00011,00017,00024,00032,00046,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON HOME & AUTO SPACE (Includes Canadian Tire) : NOTES: Existing Clarington Share of Clarington Residents Expenditures76.5% $4.8 million of Clarington residents non- Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$15.7 department store DSTM expenditures currently Plus: Estimated Inflow 30%$6.7 going outside of Clarington. Therefore, some TOTAL SALES$22.4 recapture opportunity exists. 86,000 Total Sq Ft GLA $260 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GL A Source: urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research Excludes sales transfer opportunities from existing stores (both in Clarington and outside (i.e. recapture)), rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq.ft. gross leasable area. 1) Appendix A TABLE 11 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BASE HOME AND AUTO WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington Home & Auto Expenditure Potential$20.5$22.4$24.7$26.8$29.6$32.4$37.9 Clarington Share (%) (176.5%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0% Clarington Share ($)$15.7$17.9$19.8$21.4$23.7$25.9$30.3 Less: Effective Competition$15.7$15.7$15.7$15.7$15.7$15.7$15.7 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$2.2$4.1$5.7$8.0$10.2$14.6 Plus: Inflow @30.0% $0.9$1.8$2.4$3.4$4.4$6.3 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES VOLUME FOR HOME & AUTO STORES IN CLARINGTON (excluding sales transfer opportunities from EXISTING DSTM and Home Improvement Stores as well as existing H & A stores in Clarington)$3.1$5.9$8.1$11.4$14.6$20.9 Additional Warranted Space in Clarington Square Feet GLA @$275 per square foot GLA11,00021,00029,00041,00053,00076,000 @$300 per square foot GLA10,00020,00027,00038,00049,00070,000 @$325 per square foot GLA10,00018,00025,00035,00045,00064,000 @$350 per square foot GLA9,00017,00023,00033,00042,00060,000 @$375 per square foot GLA8,00016,00022,00030,00039,00056,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON HOME & AUTO SPACE (Includes Canadian Tire): Estimated Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$15.7 Plus: Estimated Inflow 30%$6.7 TOTAL SALES$22.4 Total Sq. Ft. GLA86,000 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GL$260 A Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for Canadian Tire Stores only. 2) Rounded to nearest 1,000 square feet GLA. Appendix A TABLE 11 - C CLARINGTON SCENARIO C: HIGHER RECAPTUR E HOME AND AUTO WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003200520082010201320162021 2003 Dollars Clarington Home & Auto Expenditure Potential$20.5$22.4$24.7$26.8$29.6$32.4$37.9 Clarington Share (%) (176.5%85.0%85.0%85.0%85.0%85.0%85.0% Clarington Share ($)$15.7$19.0$21.0$22.8$25.2$27.5$32.2 Less: Effective Competition$15.7$15.7$15.7$15.7$15.7$15.7$15.7 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/$3.3$5.3$7.1$9.5$11.8$16.5 A Plus: Inflow @30.0% $1.4$2.3$3.0$4.1$5.1$7.1 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES VOLUME FOR HOME & AUTO STORE IN CLARINGTON (excluding sales transfer opportunities from DSTM and $4.7$7.6$10.1$13.6$16.9$23.6 Home Improvement Stores as well as existing H & A stores in Clarington) Additional Warranted Space in ClaringtonSquare Feet GL A @17,00028,00037,00049,00061,00086,000 $275 per square foot GLA @16,00025,00034,00045,00056,00079,000 $300 per square foot GLA @14,00023,00031,00042,00052,00073,000 $325 per square foot GLA 13,00022,00029,00039,00048,00067,000 @ $350 per square foot GLA @13,00020,00027,00036,00045,00063,000 $375 per square foot GLA EXISTING CLARINGTON HOME & AUTO SPACE (Includes Canadian Tire): Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$15.7 Plus: Estimated Inflow 30%$6.7 TOTAL SALES$22.4 Total Sq Ft GLA86,000 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA$260 Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for Canadian Tire Stores only. 2) Rounded to nearest 1,000 square feet GLA. Appendix A TABLE 12 - A MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON SCENARIO A: MARKET GROWTH ONLY SELECTED ADDITIONAL RETAIL SPACE WARRANTED IN CLARINGTON (Sq. Ft. GLA ) (Excludes Sales Transfer Opportunities from Existing Stores) Sales Performance200520082010201320162021 NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM Space Warranted Assuming Inflow = Outflow $250per sq.ft173,000172,000250,000370,000497,000718,000 $275per sq.ft266,000156,000227,000336,000452,000653,000 $300per sq.ft361,000143,000208,000308,000414,000598,000 $325per sq.ft456,000132,000192,000285,000382,000552,000 $350per sq.ft552,000123,000179,000264,000355,000513,000 DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM $400per sq.ft117,00039,00056,00083,000112,000162,000 $425per sq.ft216,00036,00053,00078,000105,000152,000 $450per sq.ft315,00034,00050,00074,000100,000144,000 $500per sq.ft413,00031,00045,00067,00090,000129,000 $525per sq.ft513,00030,00043,00063,00085,000123,000 SUPERMARKET $450per sq.ft117,00038,00056,00082,000108,000154,000 $475per sq.ft216,00036,00053,00078,000102,000145,000 $500per sq.ft315,00034,00050,00074,00097,000138,000 $525per sq.ft415,00033,00048,00070,00093,000132,000 $550per sq.ft514,00031,00046,00067,00088,000126,000 SPECIALTY FOOD $300per sq.ft16,00014,00021,00031,00040,00057,000 $325per sq.ft26,00013,00019,00028,00037,00053,000 $350per sq.ft35,00012,00018,00026,00035,00049,000 $375per sq.ft45,00011,00017,00025,00032,00046,000 $400per sq.ft55,00011,00016,00023,00030,00043,000 HOME IMPROVEMENT $300per sq.ft17,00019,00026,00039,00051,00075,000 $320per sq.ft27,00018,00025,00036,00048,00071,000 $350per sq.ft36,00016,00022,00033,00044,00064,000 $375per sq.ft46,00015,00021,00031,00041,00060,000 $400per sq.ft55,00014,00020,00029,00038,00056,000 HOME & AUTO $275per sq.ft17,00015,00023,00033,00043,00063,000 $300per sq.ft26,00014,00021,00030,00040,00058,000 $325per sq.ft36,00013,00019,00028,00037,00054,000 $350per sq.ft45,00012,00018,00026,00034,00050,000 $375per sq.ft55,00011,00017,00024,00032,00046,000 TOTAL ADDITIONAL RETAIL SPACE WARRANTED - Market Growth Only (NO RECAPTURE ) $305per sq.ft127,000297,000432,000638,000851,0001,229,000 $330per sq.ft117,000273,000398,000586,000784,0001,132,000 $355per sq.ft108,000252,000367,000543,000727,0001,047,000 $385per sq.ft100,000234,000341,000504,000672,000969,000 $410per sq.ft94,000220,000321,000470,000628,000907,000 Source: urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Research Appendix A TABLE 12 - B MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BASE SELECTED ADDITIONAL RETAIL SPACE WARRANTED IN CLARINGTON (Sq. Ft. GL A Assumptions: INCREASES IN CLARINGTON SHARE (i.e. RECAPTURE) NO ADJUSTMENTS IN DEPARTMENT STORE/NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM AND SUPERMARKET/OTHER FOOD STORE SHARES NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR SALES TRANSFERS FROM EXISTING RETAILERS IN CLARINGTON NO ADJUSTMENTS ON A STORE CA TEGORY BASIS FOR SALES TRANSFERS THAT MAY OCCUR FROM ONE STORE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER GIVEN MERCHANDISE OVERLAPS (e.g. from Non-Department Store DSTM to Supermarket) Sales Performance200520082010201320162021 NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM $250per sq.ft1294,000374,000437,000534,000637,000815,000 $275per sq.ft2267,000340,000397,000485,000579,000741,000 $300per sq.ft3245,000311,000364,000445,000531,000679,000 $325per sq.ft4226,000287,000336,000411,000490,000627,000 $350per sq.ft5210,000267,000312,000381,000455,000582,000 DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM $400per sq.ft1101,000117,000130,000149,000170,000207,000 $425per sq.ft295,000110,000122,000140,000160,000194,000 $450per sq.ft389,000104,000115,000133,000151,000184,000 $500per sq.ft480,00093,000104,000119,000136,000165,000 $525per sq.ft577,00089,00099,000114,000130,000157,000 SUPERMARKET (Food Component Only) $450per sq.ft137,00055,00070,00091,000113,000151,000 $475per sq.ft235,00052,00066,00087,000107,000143,000 $500per sq.ft334,00050,00063,00082,000102,000136,000 $525per sq.ft432,00047,00060,00078,00097,000130,000 $550per sq.ft531,00045,00057,00075,00093,000124,000 GROCERY/SPECIALTY FOOD $300per sq.ft114,00022,00028,00037,00046,00061,000 $325per sq.ft213,00020,00026,00034,00042,00057,000 $350per sq.ft312,00019,00024,00032,00039,00053,000 $375per sq.ft411,00017,00022,00030,00037,00049,000 $400per sq.ft511,00016,00021,00028,00034,00046,000 HOME IMPROVEMENT $300per sq.ft171,00083,00089,000100,000112,000135,000 $320per sq.ft267,00078,00083,00094,000105,000126,000 $350per sq.ft361,00071,00076,00086,00096,000116,000 $375per sq.ft457,00066,00071,00080,00090,000108,000 $400per sq.ft554,00062,00067,00075,00084,000101,000 HOME & AUTO $275per sq.ft111,00021,00029,00041,00053,00076,000 $300per sq.ft210,00020,00027,00038,00049,00070,000 $325per sq.ft310,00018,00025,00035,00045,00064,000 $350per sq.ft49,00017,00023,00033,00042,00060,000 $375per sq.ft58,00016,00022,00030,00039,00056,000 TOTAL SELECTED ADDITIONAL RETAIL SPACE WARRANTED IN CLARINGTON $300Sales Level 1528,000672,000783,000952,0001,131,0001,445,000 $325Sales Level 2487,000620,000721,000878,0001,042,0001,331,000 $355Sales Level 3451,000573,000667,000813,000964,0001,232,000 $385Sales Level 4415,000527,000616,000751,000892,0001,139,000 $410Sales Level 5391,000495,000578,000703,000835,0001,066,000 Source: urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research Appendix A TABLE 12 - C MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON SCENARIO C: HIGHER RECAPTURE SELECTED ADDITIONAL RETAIL SPACE WARRANTED IN CLARINGTON (Sq. Ft. GLA Assumptions: HIGHER INCREASES IN CLARINGTON SHARE THAN SCENARIO B (i.e. RECAPTURE) NO ADJUSTMENTS IN DEPARTMENT STORE/NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM AND SUPERMARKET/OTHER FOOD STORE SHARES NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR SALES TRANSFERS FROM EXISTING RETAILERS IN CLARINGTON NO ADJUSTMENTS ON A STORE CA TEGORY BASIS FOR SALES TRANSFERS THAT MAY OCCUR FROM ONE STORE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER GIVEN MERCHANDISE OVERLAPS (e.g. from Non-Department Store DSTM to Supermarket) Sales Performance200520082010201320162021 NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM $250per sq.ft1364,000451,000521,000626,000739,000935,000 $275per sq.ft2331,000410,000473,000569,000672,000850,000 $300per sq.ft3303,000376,000434,000522,000616,000779,000 $325per sq.ft4280,000347,000401,000482,000569,000719,000 $350per sq.ft5260,000322,000372,000447,000528,000668,000 DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM $400per sq.ft1116,000134,000148,000170,000194,000234,000 $425per sq.ft2109,000126,000139,000160,000182,000220,000 $450per sq.ft3103,000119,000132,000151,000172,000208,000 $500per sq.ft493,000107,000118,000136,000155,000187,000 $525per sq.ft589,000102,000113,000130,000147,000178,000 SUPERMARKET (Food Component Only) $450per sq.ft153,00071,00087,000110,000133,000177,000 $475per sq.ft250,00068,00083,000105,000126,000168,000 $500per sq.ft347,00064,00078,00099,000120,000160,000 $525per sq.ft445,00061,00075,00095,000114,000152,000 $550per sq.ft543,00058,00071,00090,000109,000145,000 SPECIALTY FOOD $300per sq.ft121,00028,00034,00044,00053,00072,000 $325per sq.ft219,00026,00032,00041,00049,00066,000 $350per sq.ft318,00024,00029,00038,00046,00061,000 $375per sq.ft417,00023,00027,00035,00043,00057,000 $400per sq.ft516,00021,00026,00033,00040,00054,000 HOME IMPROVEMENT $300per sq.ft178,00090,00097,000110,000122,000146,000 $320per sq.ft273,00085,00091,000103,000115,000137,000 $350per sq.ft367,00078,00083,00094,000105,000125,000 $375per sq.ft462,00072,00078,00088,00098,000117,000 $400per sq.ft559,00068,00073,00082,00092,000110,000 O HOME & AUT $275per sq.ft117,00028,00037,00049,00061,00086,000 $300per sq.ft216,00025,00034,00045,00056,00079,000 $325per sq.ft314,00023,00031,00042,00052,00073,000 $350per sq.ft413,00022,00029,00039,00048,00067,000 $375per sq.ft513,00020,00027,00036,00045,00063,000 N TOTAL ADDITIONAL RETAIL SPACE WARRANTED IN CLARINGTO $300Sales Level 1649,000802,000924,0001,109,0001,302,0001,650,000 $325Sales Level 2598,000740,000852,0001,023,0001,200,0001,520,000 $355Sales Level 3552,000684,000787,000946,0001,111,0001,406,000 $385Sales Level 4510,000632,000728,000875,0001,027,0001,299,000 $410Sales Level 5480,000591,000682,000818,000961,0001,218,000 Source: urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research Appendix A TABLE 13 - B SCENARIO B - CLARINGTON - PROPOSED RETAIL SPACE ASSUMPTIONS FOR IMPACT ANALYSI S Traditional SupermarketDepartmentHomeOther Retail/ Total Sq.Ft.ComponentStoreOther DSTMImprovementOther BOWMANVILLE - WEST (rounded to nearest 100 sq. ft. GLA) Metrus Proposed Loblaws (Metrus)1)142,60077,000036,000029,600 Less: Transfer from Existing Loblaws2)50,40041,70004,80003,900 New Loblaws - Net (Phase 1)92,20035,30031,20025,700 Wal-Mart (Phase 1)1)111,1000111,100000 Metrus Ancillary Space1)40,6000015,600025,000 Clarington Centr e Proposed Zellers Expansion, Clarington Centre3)5,60005,600000 Clarington Centre (retenanted Loblaws space)2)50,4000050,40000 Valiant (Clarington Place) Proposed Clarington Place Home Depot3)83,90000083,9000 Proposed Other Clarington Place3)117,0000081,900035,100 OTHER BOWMANVILL E Designated/Proposed Other Bowmanville Convenience Centres 42,0000015,000027,000 (Martin - 20,700 sq.ft. and Saraf - 21,300 sq.ft) COURTICE MAIN CENTRAL ARE A Valiant Properties150,000nana75,000nana NEWCASTLE VILLAG E Dunbury (8,000 sq.ft) and 564069 Ontario Limited (26,300 sq.ft)34,30010,00024,300 TOTAL SPACE ASSUMPTIONS 542,80035,300116,700279,10083,900112,800 Note: Excludes Torgan, AYT Corporation, and Halloway Holding Limited/Towchester Developments Limited applications. SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research 1)December 5, 2003 Fax from Bousfield Dale Harris 2)Floor Plan, 2001 PricewaterhouseCoopers study. 3)Based on information provided from Valiant Property Management. Appendix A TABLE 14 - B CLARINGTO N SCENARIO B: BASE (FOR IMPACT ANALYSIS) NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 200320052007200820132016 2003 Dollars Clarington Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)$208.8$227.0$243.4$251.7$301.3$333.1 Clarington Share (%) (134.2%52.5%52.5%52.5%52.5%52.5% Clarington Share ($)$71.4$119.2$127.8$132.1$158.2$174.9 Less: Effective Competition$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4$71.4 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$47.8$56.4$60.7$86.8$103.5 PROPOSED NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE Metrus - Loblaws DSTM Component/Other Ancillary DSTM Spac46,80046,80046,80046,800 e Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA$300$310$335$360 Total Sales Volume$14.0$14.5$15.7$16.8 Less: Inflow @30%(2$4.2$4.4$4.7$5.0 Total Sales Required from Clarington Resident $9.8$10.1$11.0$11.8 s aliant - Clarington Place81,90081,90081,90081,900 V Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA$275$285$310$340 Total Sales Volume$22.5$23.3$25.4$27.8 Less: Inflow @30%(2$6.8$7.0$7.6$8.3 Total Sales Required from Clarington Resident$15.7$16.3$17.8$19.5 s Clarington Centre - Loblaws Retenantin50,40050,40050,40050,400 g Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA$275$285$310$340 Total Sales Volume$13.9$14.4$15.6$17.1 Less: Inflow @30%(2$4.2$4.3$4.7$5.1 Total Sales Required from Clarington Resident $9.7$10.1$10.9$12.0 s Other Bowmanville - Local Central Area 15,00015,00015,00015,000 s Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA$200$210$230$250 Total Sales Volume$3.0$3.2$3.5$3.8 Less: Inflow @15%(2$0.5$0.5$0.5$0.6 Total Sales Required from Clarington Resident$2.5$2.7$3.0$3.2 s Courtice Main Central Are75,00075,00075,00075,000 a Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA$250$260$280$300 Total Sales Volume$18.8$19.5$21.0$22.5 Less: Inflow @50%(2$9.4$9.8$10.5$11.3 Total Sales Required from Clarington Resident$9.4$9.7$10.5$11.2 s Newcastle Villag10,00010,00010,00010,000 e Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA$200$210$230$250 Total Sales Volume$2.0$2.1$2.3$2.5 Less: Inflow @15%(2$0.3$0.3$0.3$0.4 Total Sales Required from Clarington Resident$1.7$1.8$2.0$2.1 s continued/ Appendix A TABLE 14 - B continued CLARINGTO N SCENARIO B: BASE (FOR IMPACT ANALYSIS) NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 200320052007200820132016 2003 Dollars A. Total Clarington - Proposed/Potential Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space (Net)279,100279,100279,100279,100 TOTAL SALES - Proposed/Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space ($ Millions) $74.2$77.0$83.5$90.5 Average Sales Per Square Feet - Proposed $265$275$300$325 Less: TOTAL ESTIMATED INFLOW SALES - Proposed/Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Spac e ($Millions) $25.4$26.3$28.3$30.7 Average Inflow34%34%34%34% TOTAL SALES REQUIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS - Clarington Proposed$48.8$50.7$55.2$59.8 TOTAL RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS$56.4$60.7$86.8$103.5 Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Non-Dept Store DSTM StoresNoneNoneNoneNone NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER CLARINGTON PROPOSED/DESIGNATED SPACE$7.6$10.0$31.6$43.7 Plus: Inflow @35.0% $4.1$5.4$17.0$23.5 Total Additional Volume Available to Clarington Non-Department DSTM Stores without Sales Transfers (excludes portion allocated to Clarington proposed space) $11.7$15.4$48.6$67.2 B. Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington without Sales Transfers/Recapture from Other Non- Department Store DSTM stores, Other Retail Stores and Department Stores (3Square Feet @$265 per square foot GLA 44,000 @$275 per square foot GLA 56,000 @$300 per square foot GLA 162,000 @$325 per square foot GLA 207,000 TOTAL NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE SUPPORTED IN CLARINGTON (A. plus B.)323,100335,100441,100486,100 EXISTING CLARINGTON NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE: Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions) (including add'l residua$71.4$79.0$81.4$103.0$115.1 Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3% (2$34.1$35.8$36.9$46.7$52.2 TOTAL SALES$105.5$114.8$118.3$149.7$167.3 460,900460,900460,900460,900460,900 Total Sq Ft GLA $230$250$255$325$365 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 Change in Total Sales From Existing Level8.9%12.2%42.0%58.6% Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003). 1) urbanMetrics inc/Tate Economic Research estimate based on licence plate surveys and the location/type of proposed/existing space. 2) Rounded to the nearest the nearest $5 per square foot. 3) Appendix A TABLE 15 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM IMPACT ANALYSIS Total Support % Change in From Clarington % Distribution - Plus Inflow TOTAL Sales 2003 Dollars Residents (1Clarington(2TOTAL SALESSq.Ft.Sales/ Sq. Foot from Existing ($Millions)(Est.)($Millions)(Rounded) 2003 Bowmanville Urban Area Bowmanville East Main Central Area - Bowmanville Mall$27.338.2%25.0%36.4$ 67,600 $540 Other Bowmanville East Main Central Area $11.215.7%25.0%14.9$ 106,000 $140 Bowmanville West Main Central Area - Clarington Centre$6.59.1%30.0%9.3$ 27,700 $335 Other Bowmanville$4.36.0%15.0%5.1$ 42,300 $120 Total Bowmanville$49.369.0%25.0%65.7$ 243,600 $270 Courtice/Other West Clarington $16.623.2%50.0%33.1$ 28,400 $1,165 Total West Clarington, Including Courtice and Former Darlington TP$16.723.4%50.0%33.4$ 180,700 $185 East Clarington Total East Clarington, Including Newcastle Village, Orono, Former Clark TP$5.57.7%15.0%6.5$ 36,600 $180 TOTAL CLARINGTON$71.5100.0%32.3%105.6$ 460,900 $230 TOTAL OUTSIDE$137.3 TOTAL, ALL LOCATION$208.8 S 2007 Bowmanville Urban Area Bowmanville East Main Central Area - Bowmanville Mall$30.123.5%25.0%$40.167,600 $59510.2% Other Bowmanville East Main Central Area $12.39.6%25.0%$16.4106,000 $15510.1% Bowmanville West Main Central Area - Clarington Centre$7.15.5%30.0%$10.127,700 $3658.6% Other Bowmanville$4.93.8%15.0%$5.742,300 $13511.8% Total Bowmanville$54.342.5%24.9%$72.3243,600 $29510.0% Courtice/Other West Clarington Total West Clarington, Including Courtice and Former Darlington TP$18.614.5%50.0%$37.1180,700 $20511.1% East Clarington Total East Clarington, Including Newcastle Village, Orono, Former Clark TP$6.24.8%15.0%$7.336,600 $20012.3% Proposed/Designated Space in Clarington$48.838.2%34.2%$74.2279,100 $265na TOTAL CLARINGTON$127.8100.0%33.1%190.9$ 740,000 $260 TOTAL OUTSIDE115.6 $ TOTAL, ALL LOCATION$243.4 S SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Research 1) Based on telephone consumer survey. 2) urbanMetrics/Tate Economic Research estimates based on licence plate and intercept survey results. Appendix A TABLE 16 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BASE (FOR IMPACT ANALYSIS) DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 200320052007200820132016 2003 Dollar s Clarington Department Store Expenditures$75.3$81.9$87.7$90.8$108.6$120.1 Clarington Share (%) (117.0%47.5%47.5%47.5%47.5%47.5% Clarington Share ($)$12.8$38.9$41.7$43.1$51.6$57.0 Less: Effective Competition$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8$12.8 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentsN/A$26.1$28.9$30.3$38.8$44.2 PROPOSED DEPARTMENT STOR E Proposed Wal-Mart 111,100111,100111,100111,100 Wal-Mart Department Store Sales Per Square Foot $410$425$450$500 Total Estimated Sales Volume$45.6$47.2$50.0$55.6 Less: Inflow @30%(2$13.7$14.2$15.0$16.7 Total Sales Required from Clarington Resident$31.9$33.0$35.0$38.9 s $28.9$30.3$38.8$44.2 TOTAL RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENT S $3.0$2.7$0.0$0.0 Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Zeller s NoneNone$3.8$5.3 NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER CLARINGTON PROPOSED/DESIGNATED SPACE EXISTING CLARINGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE : Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)$12.8$9.8$10.1$16.6$18.1 Plus: Estimated Inflow 30%(2$5.5$4.2$4.3$7.1$7.8 TOTAL SALES$18.3$14.0$14.4$23.7$25.9 Total Sq Ft GL90,00095,60095,60095,60095,600 A $205$145$150$250$270 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA ( 3 -.-... angenaesromxsngeve ChiTOTALSlFEitiLls293%268%220%317% Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003). 1) Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Clarington Centre. 2) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot gross leasable area. 3) Appendix A TABLE 17 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BASE SUPERMARKET WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003 Dollars200320052007200820132016 Clarington Supermarket Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $115.8$123.5$127.4$133.0$152.7$164.4 Clarington Share (%) (166.9%75.0%75.0%75.0%75.0%75.0% Clarington Share ($)$77.5$92.6$95.6$99.8$114.5$123.3 Less: Effective Competition$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5$77.5 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentN/A$15.1$18.1$22.3$37.0$45.8 PROPOSED SUPERMARKET SPACE A.Loblaws - Relocation/Expansion to Metrus Site - (additional traditional food component)35,30035,30035,30035,300 Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA$470$475$500$525 Total Additional Sales$16.6$16.8$17.7$18.5 Less: Inflow @ (210%$1.7$1.7$1.8$1.9 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents$14.9$15.1$15.9$16.6 Total Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents$18.1$22.3$37.0$45.8 Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington SupermarketsNoneNoneNoneNone Net Additional Residual Potential Available for Other Supermarkets$3.2$7.2$21.1$29.2 Plus: Inflow @10.0% $0.4$0.8$2.3$3.2 Total Additional Volume Available to Clarington Supermarkets (excluding proposed Loblaws)$3.6$8.0$23.4$32.4 B. Total Additional Space Supported in Clarington (excluding proposed Loblaws) Square Feet GLA @$470 per square foot GLA 7,700 @$475 per square foot GLA 16,800 @$500 per square foot GLA 46,800 @$525 per square foot GLA 61,700 TOTAL SUPERMARKET SPACE SUPPORTED IN CLARINGTON(A. plus B. ) 43,00052,10082,10097,000 EXISTING CLARINGTON SUPERMARKET SPACE: Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions) (including add't residual)$77.5$80.7$84.7$98.6$106.7 Plus: Estimated Inflow @19.8% (4$19.1$19.9$20.9$24.3$26.3 TOTAL SALES$96.6$100.6$105.6$122.9$133.0 Total Sq Ft GLA177,100177,100177,100177,100177,100 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3$545$570$595$695$750 Change in Total Sales From Existing Level4.1%9.3%27.2%37.7% Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1)Year 2003 based on the results of the telephone survey 2)urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research estimate 3)Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot 4)urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Research estimate based on the licence plate survey results and telephone survey results. Appendix A TABLE 18 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B - SUPERMARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS Assumptions: Bowmanville Loblaws existing sales from Clarington residents transferred to new store. Total Support From % Change in Clarington% Distribution - TOTAL Sales from 2003 Dollars Residents (1ClaringtonPlus Inflow (2TOTAL SALESSq.Ft.Sales/ Sq. FootExisting ($Millions)(Est.)($Millions) (Rounded) 2003 Bowmanville Urban Area Bowmanville MallA&P$11.915.4%6.0%12.7$ 26,000 490$ BowmanvilleA&P$8.711.2%5.0%9.2$ 25,600 360$ BowmanvilleIGA$4.65.9%5.0%4.8$ 13,200 365$ BowmanvilleLoblaws$27.635.6%6.5%29.5$ 50,400 585$ $52.868.1%6.0%56.2$ 115,200 490$ Total Bowanville Courtice Urban Area CourticePrice Chopper$15.219.6%50.0%30.4$ 28,400 1,070$ $15.219.6%50.0%30.4$ 28,400 1,070$ Total Courtice Clarington - Other Newcastle VillageIGA$3.34.3%$ 135 5.0%3.5$ 26,000 OronoIGA$6.28.0%$ 865 5.0%6.5$ 7,500 $9.512.3%5.0%10.0$ 33,500 300$ Total Other Clarington TOTAL CLARINGTON$77.5100.0%19.8%96.6$ 177,100 545$ TOTAL OUTSIDE$38.3 TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS$115.8 2007 Bowmanville Urban Area Bowmanville MallA&P$12.713.2%6.0%13.5$ 26,000 520$ 6.3% BowmanvilleA&P$9.39.7%5.0%9.7$ 25,600 380$ 5.4% BowmanvilleIGA$4.95.1%5.0%5.2$ 13,200 395$ 8.3% Loblaws Bowmanville $27.628.9%6.5%29.5$ 50,400 585$ 0.0% (assume existing sales transferred) Loblaws Expansion/Relocation $14.915.6%10.0%16.6$ 35,300 470$ na (tradtional food component only) $69.372.5%7.0%74.5$ 150,500 495$ Total Bowanville Courtice Urban Area CourticePrice Chopper$16.216.9%50.0%32.3$ 28,400 1,135$ $16.216.9%50.0%32.3$ 28,400 1,135$ 6.3% Total Courtice Clarington - Other Newcastle VillageIGA$3.53.7%$ 140 5.0%3.7$ 26,000 OronoIGA$6.66.9%$ 920 5.0%6.9$ 7,500 10.110.6%5.0%10.6 33,500 315 6.0% Total Other Clarington $$$ TOTAL CLARINGTON$95.6100.0%18.6%117.4$ 212,400 555$ TOTAL OUTSIDE$31.8 TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS$127.4 SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Research 1) Based on telephone consumer survey. 2) urbanMetrics/Tate Economic Research estimates based on licence plate and intercept survey results. Appendix A TABLE 19 - B CLARINGTON SCENARIO B: BASE (FOR IMPACT ANALYSIS) HOME IMPROVEMENT STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions ) 200320052007200820132016 2003 Dollars Clarington Home Improvement Store Expenditure Potential$18.1$19.6$21.2$22.1$26.2$28.8 Clarington Share (%) (112.3%65.0%65.0%65.0%65.0%65.0% $2.2$12.7$13.8$14.4$17.0$18.7 Clarington Share ($) Less: Effective Competition$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2$2.2 Residual Potential from Clarington ResidentN/$10.5$11.6$12.2$14.8$16.5 sA PROPOSED HOME IMPROVEMENT SPACE A.83,90083,90083,90083,900 Valiant Properties - Home Depot Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA$310$320$350$375 Total Sales Volume$26.0$26.8$29.4$31.5 Less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade @30%(2$7.8$8.0$8.8$9.5 Less: Inflow @ (230%(2$5.5$5.6$6.2$6.6 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents$12.7$13.2$14.4$15.4 Total HI Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents$11.6$12.2$14.8$16.5 Total Home and Auto Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents$3.3$4.1$8.0$10.2 Total Non-Department Store DSTM Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Res.$11.7$15.4$48.6$67.2 Total RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE - Selected Store Types with Home Improvement Related Merchandise$26.6$31.7$71.4$93.9 Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores Based on Available Residual in HIRM Stores NoneNoneNoneNone Net Additional HI Residual Potential Available for Other HI Stores in ClaringtonNoneNone$0.4$1.1 Source: urbanMetrics inc. and Tate Economic Research 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for home improvement centre stores only. 2) urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Research estimate. Appendix A TABLE 20 SUMMARY - NET WARRANTED SPACE - Scenario's B and C SCENARIO B: Base Assumption s 2010, GROSS 2010, NET 2021, GROSS 2021, NET PROPOSED EVALUATED WARRANTEDWARRANTEDWARRANTEDWARRANTED (Sq. Ft.) (See Table 13-B) TypeSPACE (Sq.ft.)SPACE (Sq. Ft.SPACE (Sq.ft.)SPACE (Sq. Ft. Sales/Sq.Ft. Assumption (see Summary Table 12-B)HigherLowerHigherLowerHigherLowerHigherLower Supermarket35,30057,00070,00021,70034,700124,000151,00088,700115,700 (Loblaws Relocation) Department Store116,70099,000130,000-17,70013,300157,000207,00040,30090,300 (Wal-Mart/Zellers Expansion) Other DSTM279,100312,000437,00032,900157,900582,000815,000302,900535,900 (Loblaws, Metrus, Valiant etc.) Home Improvement83,90067,00089,000-16,9005,100101,000135,00017,10051,100 (Home Depot) Home and Auto022,00029,00022,00029,00056,00076,00056,00076,000 Specialty Food25,00021,00028,000-4,0003,00046,00061,00021,00036,000 (estimate) TOTAL SELECTED RETAIL540,000578,000783,00038,000243,0001,066,0001,445,000526,000905,000 SCENARIO C: Higher Recapture 2010, GROSS 2010, NET 2021, GROSS 2021, NET PROPOSED EVALUATED WARRANTEDWARRANTEDWARRANTEDWARRANTED (Sq. Ft.) (See Table 13-B) TypeSPACE (Sq.ft.)SPACE (Sq. Ft.SPACE (Sq.ft.)SPACE (Sq. Ft. Sales/Sq.Ft. Assumption (see Summary Table 12-C)HighLowHighLowHighLowHighLow Supermarket35,30071,00087,00035,70051,700145,000177,000109,700141,700 (Loblaws Relocation) Department Store116,700113,000148,000-3,70031,300178,000234,00061,300117,300 (Wal-Mart/Zellers Expansion) Other DSTM279,100372,000521,00092,900241,900668,000935,000388,900655,900 (Loblaws, Metrus, Valiant etc.) Home Improvement83,90073,00097,000-10,90013,100110,000146,00026,10062,100 (Home Depot) Home and Auto027,00037,00027,00037,00063,00086,00063,00086,000 Specialty Food25,00026,00034,0001,0009,00054,00072,00029,00047,000 (estimate) TOTAL SELECTED RETAIL540,000682,000924,000142,000384,0001,218,0001,650,000678,0001,110,000