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Staff Report
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Report To: General Government Committee
Date of Meeting: November 25, 2019 Report Number: CAO-014-19
Reviewed By: Andrew C. Allison, CAO Resolution#:
File Number: PLN 29.12 By-law Number:
Report Subject: Durham Community Energy Plan Endorsement
Recommendations:
1. That Report CAO-14-19 be received;
2. That Council endorse in principle the Durham Community Energy Plan (DCEP),
including the community energy reduction target of 80% by 2050 and the Low
Carbon Pathway scenario as the preferred energy scenario for implementation;
3. That Council refer the DCEP to the Inter -Departmental Climate Change Working
Group for consideration and incorporation of relevant elements into the Clarington
Climate Change Action Plan currently under development;
4. That Staff continue to participate in the DCEP Steering Committee, while requests
for participation in Working Groups be considered on a case -by -case basis, subject
to staff availability; and
5. That all interested parties listed and any delegations be advised of Council's
decision.
Municipality of Clarington
Report CAO-014-19
Report Overview
Page 2
On May 2, 2016, Council resolved to participate in the development of the Durham
Community Energy Plan (DCEP). Staff collaborated with staff from the Region of
Durham, the seven other area municipalities and five local utilities to prepare the DCEP.
The DCEP was approved in principle by Regional Council on April 24, 2019. The DCEP
is an action -oriented plan that defines region -wide energy priorities to reduce energy
consumption and greenhouse gas pollution, save money and create jobs. The DCEP
seeks to accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy while simultaneously
achieving economic, environmental and social benefits by following a low carbon
pathway (LCP) for energy production and consumption. The LCP supports the Region of
Durham's target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by the year 2050.
1. Background
1.1 On May 2, 2016, Council endorsed resolution #PD-068-19. The resolution directed
Clarington staff to participate in the coordinated development of the Durham Community
Energy Plan (DCEP) with the Region of Durham (the Region), the seven other Durham
local municipalities and the local energy utilities in Durham.
1.2 The DCEP builds on the Region's community greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation
planning. The DCEP provides a detailed analysis of the drivers underlying energy
consumption and GHG emissions in Durham Region, and proposes actions that will
support the transition to a low carbon economy that promotes economic prosperity.
1.3 To support the development of the DCEP, $90,000 was received from the provincial
Municipal Energy Plan (MEP) Program. The Provincial funds were matched by $90,000
from the Region, the eight local municipalities and the five local electrical utilities. The
Municipality's contribution included providing staff time for the project's Steering
Committee and a financial contribution of $12,000.
1.4 On April 24, 2019, Durham Regional Council approved the DCEP in principle and
recommended that:
a. The DCEP be referred to local municipal councils and local energy utilities for their
review and approval in principle;
b. Staff be directed to incorporate the relevant elements of the DCEP related to land -
use planning into the new Regional Official Plan through Envision Durham —
Municipal Comprehensive Review process; and
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Report CAO-014-19
Page 3
c. Staff be authorized to develop the details of the six programs recommended in the
DCEP and bring them forward for individual approval to proceed with
implementation.
1.5 The DCEP and supporting documents are available on the project website. The DCEP
summary, The Clean Energy Economy in Durham: Seizing the Opportunity, is provided
as Attachment 1.
1.6 On June 10, 2019, Council referred the Region's request for local municipal approval of
the DCEP to Staff (Resolution #GG-332-19).
2. DCEP Overview
2.1 The DCEP is a joint initiative led by Durham Region in conjunction with the area
municipalities and five utilities. The purpose of the DCEP is to "seek to accelerate the
transition to a clean energy economy in Durham, while simultaneously achieving
multiple economic, environmental and social benefits." This is achieved by examining
opportunities across the Region of Durham to:
improve energy efficiency;
increase energy security; and
GHG emissions.
2.2 The DCEP considers all forms of energy including the supply, demand, storage and
transmittal. The energy system and community priorities relating to energy have been
evaluated within the DCEP whilst taking into account future considerations such as:
• Population growth;
• Land use;
• Economic growth; and
• The development of sustainable communities.
2.3 The timeframe for the DCEP is 2015 to 2050. 2015 is the baseline year in which
community energy data was collected. The year 2050 aligns with declarations by the
Region and the Province of Ontario to reduce GHG emissions by 80 per cent. These
targets further align with those established by COP 24 Paris Accord, in which many
nations worldwide have committed to reducing GHG emissions in order to keep global
temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid catastrophic climate change.
2.4 The DCEP modelled 3 scenarios to determine their social, economic and environmental
impacts related to energy consumption, cost, GHG emissions, and employment. Based
on these indicators, the Low Carbon Pathway (LCP) was selected as the preferred
scenario to safeguard social and environmental wellbeing.
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Report CAO-014-19
Page 4
2.5 The process to produce the DCEP was overseen by a Steering Committee composed of
representatives from the 13 project partner organizations. The Steering Committee met
14 times between June 2016 and September 2018.
2.6 The DCEP Steering Committee engaged in high-level discussions to outline the
program areas that should be developed in the future to achieve the targets outlined in
the LCP scenario of the DCEP. The proposed programs include:
• Green Building Standard;
• Deep Retrofit Program;
• Renewable Energy Co-operative;
• Electric Vehicle Joint Venture;
• Education and Outreach Program; and
• Co-ordinated Land -use Policies for sustainable growth.
2.7 The public and local environmental advisory committees were given the opportunity
comment on the draft DCEP. A public feedback session was held in February 2019. The
public was also encouraged to participate in an online questionnaire, which was
available in February and March, 2019.
3. DCEP Process
3.1 The development and implementation of the DCEP follows the four -stage process
required by the provincial MEP Program, summarized in the following sections:
Stage 1: Stakeholder Engagement
3.2 Three stakeholder sessions were held throughout the DCEP planning process to build
awareness of current energy production and use, outline a vision and energy objectives,
identify energy projects and local energy champions, and secure local interest and
involvement in the development of the DCEP. These sessions helped to scope the
DCEP, create a vision and generate the priorities that would allow for the vision to be
achieved.
3.3 A number of key messages were identified and have been embedded within the DCEP.
These include:
• The need for community partnerships;
• A desire for self-sufficiency and access to diversified energy sources including
renewable energy and ways to decrease energy consumption;
• The urgency to improve education and communication around energy literacy;
• A need for policy, process and regulatory changes to remove administrative
barriers that prevent the advancement of energy technology;
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Report CAO-014-19
• A need for financial incentives and disincentives;
• That transportation is key and that the transition to electric vehicles, as well as a
greater uptake in transit and active transportation modes such as cycling and
walking, is required;
• That community design considerations ensure communities are walkable,
integrated, mixed -use, and provide more local employment opportunities that
reduce travel or provide opportunities for telecommuting; and
• That the DCEP should decrease GHG emissions and link to climate change
adaptation planning.
Stage 2: Baseline Energy Data
3.4 In order to establish an understanding of Durham Region's energy system, a baseline
model was created. The highlights of this model reveal that in Durham:
• Annual GHG emissions are 7.5 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per person. Of this:
0 49% is derived from gasoline and diesel use;
0 33% is from natural gas; and,
0 5% from electricity.
• Energy costs are approximately $2.3 billion ($3562/person) annually. Of this:
0 48% of the costs are associated with gasoline and diesel;
0 39% is from electricity; and
0 9% is from natural gas.
• Overall the energy use by sector is:
0 36% transportation;
0 30% residential; and
0 19% industrial.
• The energy supplied by quantity is:
0 37% gasoline and diesel;
0 35% natural gas; and,
0 17% electricity*.
*Of this energy, 9% is derived from renewable energy sources.
Stage 3: Development of the DCEP
3.5 Developing the DCEP required the modeling and analysis of different future scenarios
for energy production and use to determine the optimal scenario. The aim of the
technical analysis was to provide an investment roadmap using a detailed energy and
emissions model. The analysis considered the drivers of Durham Region's energy
consumption and
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Report CAO-014-19
GHG emissions, answering the question "where are we now?" As a result three
scenarios were developed:
Business as Usual (BAU): Current patterns of energy consumption extrapolated
out to 2050, accounting for population increases, fuel efficiency standards, and
impacts of climate change on heating and cooling in buildings;
Business as Planned (BAP): In addition to the BAU assumptions, the BAP
scenario also reflects projected changes in building codes, increase in building
retrofits (residential and commercial), increase in use of solar photovoltaic
systems, increase in electric vehicles and increase in local large-scale solar
photovoltaic and wind generation; and
Low Carbon Pathway (LCP): In addition to the BAU assumptions, a composite of
22 ambitious actions designed to achieve Durham Region's GHG targets;
including new building energy efficiency standards; building retrofit programs;
heat pump installations; solar photovoltaic and wind generation; energy storage;
electrification of personal, commercial and transit vehicles; land use changes;
and industrial efficiencies.
3.6 Each of the scenarios was then analysed for a common set of outcomes such as energy
consumption, costs, emissions, economic and employment implications. Based on
these outcomes, the LCP was selected as the preferred scenario. The LCP was
selected as the preferred scenario because:
• Total energy consumption is 51 % less by 2050 under the LCP than the BAU
scenario (despite a doubling of population) (Figure 1).
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_BAU —BAP —LCP
Municipality of Clarington
Report CAO-014-19
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• GHG emission reductions are 70% lower in 2050 under the LCP than under the
BAU (Figure 2).
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• Household energy costs (home and vehicles) decline 55% under the LCP, by
2050, saving the average household $36,500 between 2016 and 2050 (Figure 3).
7,000
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5,000
4,000
o
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2,000
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2016
2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 204e. 12.C151
—BAU —PAP -LCP
• Yearly energy expenditures are forecasted to remain steady at $2.5 billion in 2050
for the LCP, as compared to an increased expenditure of $1.4 billion in 2050 for
the BAU scenario (Figure 4).
0.0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2053
_BAU —BAP —LCP
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Report CAO-014-19
3.7 Other aspects underlying the social, economic and environmental benefits of the LCP
scenario include:
• Renewable energy's share of Durham's supply increases from 10% in 2016 to
56% in 2050 under the LCP scenario. Most of this renewable energy is from local
sources such as solar, wind and biomass. Fossil fuel use drops from 80% to 31 %
over the period. Nuclear energy's share increases slightly.
• Currently 17% of the total energy consumption in Durham is electric. Under the
LCP this increases to 51 % in 2050, due mostly to electric vehicles and the use of
electricity in space heating (through efficient heat pumps). This switch enables
GHG reductions, improved air quality and overall cost reductions.
• Under the LCP between 2016 and 2050, $31 billion in proposed region -wide
investments result in a $40 billion return in energy savings and revenue from
local energy generation.
• Under the LCP between 2016 and 2050, 210,000 person years of are created
per year on average. These new jobs are widely distributed in the construction,
energy and manufacturing industries and in professions such as engineering and
management.
3.8 The framework of Reduce -Improve -Switch was used to help frame the actions in the low
carbon scenario. This approach was adapted from similar approaches such as the well-
known Reduce -Reuse -Recycle (from the waste sector), and Avoid -Shift -Improve (from
the transportation sector). The focus was first on reducing or avoiding consumption of
energy, secondly improving the efficiency of the energy system (supply and demand),
and finally fuel switching to low carbon or zero carbon renewable sources. This
approach minimizes the cost of the energy transition by avoiding installing capacity that
is not subsequently required as a result of energy efficiency measures.
Stage 4: Implementation Plan
3.9 The DCEP proposes six programs to achieve the preferred LCP scenario, including:
Durham Green Building Standard: Enhanced energy performance for new
buildings
o Building homes and other buildings to achieve net zero energy;
o Using high levels of insulation and energy efficient equipment, PV generation,
storage and micro grids to produce as much energy as consumed; and
o A clear process and incentives can support the building industry to offset any
additional capital costs.
• Durham Deep Retrofit Program: Transforming existing buildings:
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o To reduce energy consumption, with fuels and produce on -site energy;
o Explore partnerships among governments utilities, private sector and higher
education institutions;
o Explore financial mechanisms, such as long term loans, financial incentives,
green bonds, loan guarantees, and aggregating similar buildings into bulk
retrofit projects; and
o Retrofitting can also be a good source for economic development and job
creation in Durham Region.
• Renewable Energy Co-operative: Stimulating Local Renewable Energy Projects:
o A new organization intended to focus on public and private investment to
renewable energy opportunities; and,
o Intended to promote and finance renewable energy.
• Electric Vehicle Joint Venture:
o Collaboratively promote, provide incentives and government leadership to
electrification in the transportation sector.
• Education and Outreach Program: Engaging the Community:
o Ongoing education and engagement with general public, business sector,
stakeholder groups; and
o Regularly communicating the benefits of the Low Carbon Pathway.
• Co-ordinated Land Use Policies for Sustainable Growth:
o Imbed measures such as solar orientation and access, district energy
systems, electric vehicle infrastructures, low -energy subdivisions, public
transit and walkable communities into Regional and Local Official Plans and
Secondary Plans.
3.10 DCEP program development is preliminary, comprising of overall objectives and
potential impact forecasts to 2050. Significant further development will be required as
part of implementation, including detailed program design, securing funding,
coordinating administration and the development of monitoring and reporting
frameworks.
3.11 To implement the LCP, the DCEP recognizes the need for a community effort that
involves both the public and private sectors and citizens. The DCEP recommends a
"whole of society approach" that involves local and other levels of government, citizens,
businesses, educational institutions, non-profit organizations and other entities. To
facilitate this level of collaboration, the DCEP recommends the establishment of a
central entity for coordination and leadership.
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Report CAO-014-19
3.12 Currently the Municipality is engaged in actions that align with the DCEP:
• In 2015, Council endorsed the Priority Green Clarington: Green Development
Framework and Implementation Plan. The Green Development Framework and
Implementation Plan provides a road map for the design and implementation of a
green development program for future residential development in Clarington. As
a component of implementing the Green Development Framework, the
Municipality has implemented policies within the Clarington Official Plan. This
includes providing direction for the development of new Secondary Plans and
updating of existing Secondary Plans using the Green Development Framework.
New Secondary Plans will incorporate the green standards set out in the
Framework. Green Development Guidelines are required for each new or
existing Secondary Plan area.
The Municipality has partnered with Trent University Durham Campus to develop
a Clarington Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy. The Strategy will highlight
municipal best practices related to the adoption, use, administration and
maintenance of EVs. By encouraging the adoption of EVs the municipality will be
helping to reduce the amount or fossils that are consumed and greenhouse
gasses released into the atmosphere, while encouraging the use of clean, locally
produced electricity.
In July 2019, the Municipality's Interdepartmental Climate Change Working
Group (ICCWG) initiated the creation of a region -wide Electric Vehicle Zero -
Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Working Group. Representatives from Clarington,
Ajax, Oshawa, Oshawa PUC Networks, Whitby and the Region of Durham
submitted a proposal to NRCan to establish a region -wide network of 60 Level 2
EV chargers across 21 municipally -owned, publicly accessible sites within
Durham. A region -wide network of EV stations will enable the public to adopt
electric vehicles, decreasing the consumption of fossil fuels.
In accordance with O. Reg. 507/18 of the Electricity Act, the Municipality track
energy consumption in all of its operations. This data enables the Municipality to
make informed decisions about opportunities to reduce its energy consumption
and save money. In spring 2019 the Municipality released a 5-year corporate
Energy Conservation and Demand Management (ECDM) Plan. The ECDM Plan
reviews the historical and forecasted energy performance of the facilities that are
owned and operated by the Municipality and recommends measures to reduce
energy consumption and GHG emissions and save money. The actions outlined
in the ECDM Plan will be implemented by operations staff on an ongoing basis to
reduce energy consumption.
Municipality of Clarington
Report CAO-014-19
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In late September 2019, municipal staff submitted a proposal to NRCan to fund
100% of the costs associated with hiring a full time Energy Manager. If awarded,
the principal role of Energy Manager will be to support municipal staff with the
implementation of Clarington's 2019-2024 Energy Conservation and Demand
Management Plan (ECDM Plan). The ECDM Plan outlines the current energy
consumption of municipally operated facilities and how the Municipality can
reduce overall energy consumption, operating costs and greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions.
In late September 2019, the Municipal staff submitted a proposal to NRCan to
fund 100% of the costs associated with conducting energy audits on two
recreational facilities using CircuitMeter sub -metering technology. CircuitMeter is
a real-time energy management and monitoring system that integrates sub -
metering hardware and data collection software. The data collected though
CircuitMeter would enable municipal staff to recommission the facilities to reduce
the amount of energy they consume
Made up of Clarington residents, staff and a Council liaison, the Clarington Active
Transportation and Safe Roads (ATSR) Committee advises Council on matters
related to active transportation, trails, cycling networks, pedestrian connectivity
and transportation safety. The Committee also provides input into the
implementation of The Clarington Transportation Master Plan and encourages,
promotes and participates in the planning of active transportation policies,
programs and facilities. Active transportation plays a role as both a utilitarian
mode of transportation, reducing the reliance on the car by serving as an
alternate mode for shorter to medium distance commuting and as a means to
access transit connections and reduces transportation -related energy
consumption.
4. Implementation
4.1 As indicated, the DCEP is a pathway for the Region, the municipalities and the broader
community. Implementation therefore necessitates a "whole of society approach" that
involves local and other levels of governments, citizens, businesses, educational
institutions, non-profit organizations and other entities.
4.2 The DCEP proposes that the public sector has three key roles in overcoming these
barriers to enable the implementation of the DCEP: 1) Identify the implementation
strategies that maximize social benefits; 2) Create enabling conditions for private sector
participation, for those cases in which participation maximizes social benefit; and 3)
Provide support or directly deliver those actions which are not delivered by the private
sector.
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4.3 Now that Regional Council has approved the DCEP in principle, Regional Staff has
reengaged the DCEP Steering Committee to discuss the next steps for implementing
the DCEP. Regional staff is also forming a working group to proceed with the
development of a residential deep retrofit program as a first step toward implementing
the DCEP.
4.4 Over the past year, the Municipality's Inter -Departmental Working Group on Climate
Change has been engaged in the development of a climate change action plan for the
corporation, which is being led by the Municipality's Climate Change Coordinator. To
support advancing implementation of the Region -wide DCEP and managing resource
needs for local climate change action planning and priority setting, it is recommended
that Staff continue to participate in the DCEP Steering Committee, while requests for
participation in Working Groups be considered on a case -by -case basis, subject to staff
availability. In addition, it is recommended that the actions of the DCEP be referred to
the Inter -Departmental Climate Change Working Group for consideration, prioritization
and incorporation of relevant elements of the DCEP into the Clarington Climate Change
Action Plan.
4.5 The Region will track the development and effectiveness of the programs. Key
motivations for monitoring and evaluation include:
• Identifying unanticipated outcomes
• Adjusting programs and policies based on their effectiveness
• Managing and adapting to the uncertainty of climate change and
• Managing and adapting to emerging technologies.
5. Financial Implications
5.1 The total cost of the process to produce the DCEP over three years has been $238,000,
of which $148,000 has been provided by governments and energy utilities in Durham
Region. Clarington contributed $12,000 to the development of the DCEP.
5.2 The implementation of the DCEP is projected to bring significant economic and financial
benefits to Durham Region, its residents and businesses, as outlined the DCEP
Summary document (Attachment 1).
5.3 To support further development of the six programs recommended in the DCEP, the
Region has requested the Municipality provide an in -kind contribution of approximately
one hour of staff time per month to sit on the DCEP Steering Committee and
approximately two hours per month to sit on working groups for specific program
development, as initiated. Any financial requests for support of program development
would be brought to Council for approval.
Municipality of Clarington
Report CAO-014-19
6. Conclusion
Page 13
6.1 The DCEP provides direction on how to make strategic decisions related to energy that
results in economic, employment, environmental and social and health benefits.
6.2 If approved by Council, it is recommended that Staff continue to participate in the DCEP
Steering Committee, while requests for participation in Working Groups be considered
on a case -by -case basis, subject to staff availability.
6.3 It is recommended that the actions of the DCEP be referred to the Inter -Departmental
Climate Change Working Group for consideration, prioritization and incorporation of
relevant elements of the DCEP into the Clarington Climate Change Action Plan.
6.4 It is anticipated that the Region will bring forward the first phase of programs for
endorsement by Regional Council in the Spring of 2020
6.5 It is recommended that Council endorse in principle the DCEP, including the energy
reduction target of 80% by 2050 and the Low Carbon Pathway scenario as the preferred
energy scenario for implementation; and
Staff Contact:
Doran Hoge, Climate Change Response Coordinator, 905-623-3379 ex. 2429,
dhoge a clarington.net
Attachments:
Attachment 1 - Durham Community Energy Plan Draft
The following interested parties will be notified of Council's decision:
The Regional Municipality of Durham
DURHAM
COMMUNITY
ENERGY
PLAN
Attachment 1 to Report
CAO-014-19
he Clean Ener
Econo-My'in Durh
Seizing the Oppo
OQ'
-SUMMARY-
Fall 2018 V2
Durham Community Energy Plan
Benefits Of The Clean Energy Economy In Durham
1. Reduced energy use O
Durham's total energy use declines 51 %
compared to the Business as Usual (BAU)
scenario. All of this reduction results from
improved energy efficiency— despite a
doubling of population.
2. Lower household energy costs O
Average annual household energy costs
(home and vehicle) decline from $5,800
currently (in 2016) to $2,650 in 2050. Over
the period, households will each save
$34,600 on energy expenditures.
3. Lower total energy expenditures O
The Low Carbon Pathway (LCP) reduces
energy expenditures across the region by
$1.4 billion (35%) in 2050 compared to the
BAU scenario. This is a saving of $20 billion
over the period.
4. More renewable energy O
Renewable energy increases from 10% of
Durham's supply in 2016 to 56% in 2050.
Conversely, fossil fuel use drops from 80%
to 31 %.
5. Lower GHG emissions O
Durham's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
are 70% lower in 2050 than under the BAU
scenario (and 66% lower than in 2016).
6. Less Air Pollution O
Air pollution emissions from energy use
decline about 70%, especially in the
transportation sector. This means easier
breathing for everyone.
P]
7. Local investment ED
Households and companies in Durham
already invest more than $5 billion every
year in their homes, buildings, vehicles and
other energy -using infrastructure. In the Low
Carbon Pathway, this would increase by $1
billion per year to cover the cost of making
those investments more energy efficient and
renewable. But this $31 billion incremental
investment over 30 years would pay back
$40 billion in energy savings and other
revenues. The investment pays for itself.
8. Economic Development O
Embracing the Low Carbon Pathway will
help the Durham economy flourish. Energy
investments will bring economic growth and
the expenditures and savings will circulate in
the local economy, rather than being
exported.
9. Local jobs created O
Local employment is created from
investments in energy efficiency and energy
generation — about 210,000 person -years of
employment over the period. That's an
average of 7,000 new jobs each year.
10. Increased self-reliance O
Durham's self-sufficiency in energy
increases from 19% currently to about 56%
by 2050.
11. Electrification O
Electricity's market share in the Durham
economy increases from 17% in 2016 to
51 % in 2050.
What Is The Durham Community Energy Plan?
Introduction: Project Schedule:
Community energy plans are intended to The work to produce the Plan began in June
guide the development, storage and 2016 and is scheduled for completion in early
transmission of energy in communities and to 2019. The process consisted of 3 stages:
optimize the related economic, environmental,
health and social benefits.
Objectives:
The Durham Community Energy Plan (DCEP)
will accelerate the transition to a clean energy
economy in Durham while simultaneously
achieving multiple economic, environmental
and social benefits.
Time frame:
The time frame for the Plan is the period from
2015 (the base year) to 2050. This 35-year
period is enough time to completely replace
the energy infrastructure in Durham.
Scope:
The Plan covers the entire geography of the
Durham Region.
It includes all forms of energy: electricity,
natural gas, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, nuclear
power, biomass, solar, wind, coal etc.
It covers all stages of the energy cycle: energy
generation, transmission, storage and use.
The Plan covers all sectors of the Durham
economy:
residential,
commercial,
industrial,
institutional,
agricultural and
transportation.
3
Stage 1: Stakeholder Engagement
Stage 2: Baseline Data Study
Stage 3: Plan Development.
Sponsors and financial contributors:
The Ontario Ministry of Energy, Northern
Development and Mines
The Regional Municipality of Durham
Town of Ajax
Township of Brock
Municipality of Clarington
City of Oshawa
City of Pickering
Township of Scugog
Township of Uxbridge
Town of Whitby
Enbridge Gas Distribution
Oshawa Public Utilities Commission
Veridian Connections
Whitby Hydro
Where next?
After a period of stakeholder and public
consultation in the fall of 2018, the final
Durham Community Energy Plan will be
presented in 2019 to Regional and local
councils for approval and to the boards
of the energy utilities for their support.
Then the Plan will move into the
Implementation Stage where new
organizations and alliances may be
required to effectively achieve the goals
of the Plan.
Stage 1 - Stakeholder Engagement
The Monarch Park Group organized two
Stakeholder engagement sessions early in
the planning process:
Sept. 20, 2016: 44 participants
Feb. 28, 2017: 63 participants
The stakeholders produced the following
elements of a vision and key messages for
the Durham Community Energy Plan.
" Elements of the Vision:
• Innovative, smart and diversified
energy solutions
• Transparent, accountable and
committed to the vision
• Reduced carbon footprint
• Economic prosperity, and
community and environmental
health
• Reliable, resilient, integrated,
sustainable and financially viable
energy sources
• Affordable for all
• Community collaboration for
innovative solutions "
" Key Messages:
4
• Need for community partnerships
• Desire for self-sufficiency — diversify
energy sources including renewable
energy and decrease consumption
• Education and communication are
important re. energy literacy, benefits,
measures
• Need for policy, process and regulatory
changes to remove administrative
barriers
• Need for financial incentives and
disincentives
• Transportation is key — more electric
vehicles; increase transit re. DRT, GO,
LRT, cycling and walking
• Community design needs to be
walkable, integrated, mixed -use
• Local employment is important — green
businesses with telecommuting to
reduce travel
• DCEP should decrease GHG emissions
and link to the Durham Community
Climate Adaptation Plan (DCCAP)
DURHAM
NIIY
ENERGY
PLAN
Durham Community Energy Plan
Stakeholder Consultation Draft Final Report
May 2, zon
Stage 2 - Baseline Energy Data
A study was undertaken by Durham
Sustain Ability to gather, assess and
present important data on Durham's
energy use in the base year, 2015. A
detailed data base was created and an
infographic was produced.
DURHW
COMMUNITY
ENERGY
PLAN
Baseline Energy Study for 2015
Final Report
May 2017
ae Durham
Sustain Ability
Energy Use by Sector
36% transportation
30% residential
19% industrial
Energy Supply: (9% renewable)
37% gasoline and diesel
35% natural gas
17% electricity
GHG Emissions: (7.5 tonnes per
capita)
49% gasoline and diesel
33% natural gas
5% electricity
Energy Costs: ($2.3 billion/yr.)
48% gasoline and diesel
39% electricity
9% natural gas
Stage 3 - Plan Development
Developing an energy plan for Durham required the construction of different future scenarios for
energy production and use and then modeling and analysis to determine the optimal scenario.
Sustainability Solutions Group (SSG), in association with whatlf Technologies, were hired to
undertake this analysis and prepare a draft Durham Community Energy Plan. SSG has prepared
similar plans for Toronto, Markham, Waterloo Region, Edmonton, Bridgewater, NS and other
Canadian municipalities.
Three Scenarios
BAU: Business as Usual
Current patterns of energy consumption are extrapolated
out until 2050, while accounting for population increases,
federal fuel efficiency standards and the impacts of climate
change on heating and cooling requirements in buildings.
BAP: Business as Planned
In addition to the assumptions in the BAU, the BAP scenario reflects the projected increases
in provincial building codes, a slight increase in building retrofits in the residential and
commercial sectors, an increase in the adoption of building scale solar photovoltaic systems,
an increase in electric vehicles and a modest increase in local large-scale solar and wind
generation.
LCP: Low Carbon Pathway
The LCP scenario is a composite of 22 ambitious actions designed to achieve Durham
Region's GHG targets. These include new building efficiency standards, extensive building
retrofit programs, installation of heat pumps, photovoltaic and wind generation, energy
storage, electrification of personal, commercial and transit vehicles, land -use changes and
industrial efficiencies.
Details of the assumptions for each of these scenarios are presented in Appendix 1.
Modelling
The assumptions defining the three scenarios and data on Durham's projected growth in
population, households, employment and development patterns were entered into the
"CitylnSight" model to create a detailed model of Durham's energy system and economy.
Analysis of the Scenarios
Each of the scenarios was then analysed for a common set of outcomes such as energy
consumption, costs, emissions, economic and employment implications. Based on these
outcomes, the Low Carbon Pathway was selected as the preferred scenario.
Results Of The Scenario Analysis
Total Energy Consumption Reduced
In 2050, total energy consumption under the LCP scenario is 51 % less than the BAU scenario
and about 37% less than in 2016 (despite a doubling of population). This is mostly due to
extensive energy conservation efforts and the inherent efficiency of electric vehicles.
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2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
BAU BAP LCP
Lower GHG Emissions
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from Durham are 70% lower in 2050 under the LCP
scenario than under BAU and 66% lower than in 2016. By extension, air pollution emissions
from the energy sector are also reduced about 70%, contributing to improved health.
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—BAU —BAP —LCP
These dramatic reductions are due to energy efficiency and the switch to low carbon energy
(mostly renewables) but don't quite reach Durham's official target of an 80% reduction in GHGs
by 2050 from the 2007 base.
Household Energy Expenditures Drop Dramatically
Under the LCP, household energy costs (home and vehicles) decline from $5,800 in 2016 to
$2,650 in 2050 (constant $), a reduction of 55%. Over the period, the average household will
save a total of $36,500. This is due to energy conservation, lower operating costs for electric
vehicles and lower costs for clean energy compared to conventional energy.
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2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
—BAU —BAP —LCP
Total Regional Energy Costs Decline
The total cost of energy in the Region was $2.5 billion in 2016 and is projected to reach $3.9
billion under the BAU by 2050. Under the LCP, this declines to $2.5 billion, a saving of $1.4
billion in 2050 (a 35% reduction). Over the period, cumulative savings reach $20 billion in
Durham.
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More Renewable Energy
100%
Renewable energy's share of Durham's
supply increases from 10% in 2016 to
56% in 2050 under the LCP scenario.
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Most of this renewable energy is from
50%
0 c
local sources such as solar, wind and
0
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biomass. Fossil fuel use drops from 80%
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to 31 % over the period. Nuclear energy's
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■ Renewable energy ■ Nuclear ■ Fossil Fuel
100%
Increased Energy Self-sufficiency
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Currently Durham is about 19% self-sufficient
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in energy (due mostly to nuclear generation in
W so%
the Region). Under the LCP, this level of self-
sufficiency increases to about 56%. Thus, we
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would be less subject to energy supply
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disruptions and economic shocks to the
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2016 LCP zo5o
national or global energy system.
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■ Energy Sourced outside Durham ■ Energy Sourced in Durham
Electrification of the Economy
100
Currently 17% of our total energy
M 9
consumption is electric. Under the LCP this
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a) U so%
electric vehicles and the use of electricity in
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0%
efficient electricity allows us to achieve
2016 LCP 2050
dramatic GHG reductions, improved air
■ Electricity ■ Non Electricity
quality and overall cost reductions.
9
Local Energy Investment
Households and firms in Durham already invest more than $5 billion every year in their homes,
buildings, vehicles and other energy -using infrastructure. This investment is projected to grow
over the scenario period, accumulating to more than $165 billion by 2050. An additional $1
billion per year is required in the Low Carbon Pathway to cover the cost of making these
investments energy efficient and for developing local renewable energy options. Over the period
to 2050, this incremental investment reaches $31 billion, but it returns $40 billion in energy
savings and revenue from local energy generation. Thus, the investment is cost-effective. The
scenarios and the analysis behind the Durham Community Energy Plan have demonstrated that
there is a wide range of investment opportunities for individuals, businesses, utilities, the non-
profit sector and governments that are good for the investors and good for the community.
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2016 2021
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mInvestments
Energy Savings
Carbon price credit
Revenue from local generation
o&M Savings
—Annual Net Cost of Program
Local Job Creation 10,000
Local employment is created
9,000
from the energy -related
8000
7,000
investments in Durham.
6,000
Over the period, this
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5,000
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3,000
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manufacturing industries
and in professions such as
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fV N N CV N N " N N N N C4 N N N N N
Year
Residential retrofits
■ Residential new construction
Residential equipment
10
Non residential retrofits
■ Non residential new construction
Non residential equipment
How Do We Get There? Implementation Programs
1. Durham Green Standard:
Enhanced energy
performance for new
buildings
It is now technically possible
and financially feasible to build
homes and other buildings that
are net zero energy. They
employ high levels of insulation
and energy efficient equipment,
together with PV generation,
Guelph Net -Zero Energy Homes
storage and micro grids to produce as much energy as they consume. Providing a clear
pathway and incentives to the building industry give certainty and offsets any additional
capital costs. Quickly achieving these high levels of performance in our new buildings is
urgent for Durham since we are projected to double our housing stock by 2050. Toronto's
Green Standard provides an accepted model program that can be adapted for Durham's
conditions .
2. Durham Deep Retrofit
Program: Transforming
existing buildings
Existing buildings are
responsible for 63% of our
energy consumption, 51 % of
energy costs and 51 % of GHG
emissions. They will still
constitute half of our building
stock in 2050. Deep energy
retrofits are possible in most of
our existing buildings to
significantly reduce energy
consumption, switch fuels and
Home Energy Retrofit
produce on -site energy. A partnership program among governments, utilities, the private
sector and higher education is necessary to unlock this potential. Financial mechanisms
such as long-term loans, financial incentives, green bonds, loan guarantees and
aggregating similar buildings into bulk retrofit projects will address the barriers in our
existing building stock. Retrofitting our buildings can be a major source of economic
development and job creation in Durham.
11
3. Renewable Energy Co-operative: Stimulating
Local Renewable Energy Projects
A new organization in Durham would focus on bringing
public and private investment to the renewable energy
opportunities identified in the Plan. It would promote and
finance PV, wind, renewable fuel, solar thermal, district
energy, storage and geothermal projects -- both large-
scale and distributed.
Wind and solar
Fppm� , I I I ' 4. Electric Vehicle Joint Venture: Happy
r�
Motoring!
VY
Transportation in Durham is responsible for 36% of
our energy consumption, 48% of our energy costs
0
and 49 /o of our GHG emissions. Electric vehicles
are much more energy efficient, economical to
operate and virtually emissions -free on the Ontario
electricity grid. The rapid adoption of electric cars,
Electric Vehicle Charging trucks and buses in Durham is vital to achieving the
many benefits of the Low Carbon Pathway. A collaborative program based on targets,
promotion, incentives and government leadership is critical to realizing the promise of
electrification in the Durham transportation sector.
5. Education and Outreach Program: Engaging the Community
Any transformational program like the Durham Community Energy Plan requires ongoing
education and engagement among the general public, the business sector and various
stakeholder groups. We need to regularly communicate the benefits of the Low Carbon
Pathway, educate various audiences on their roles, report on substantial progress being
made and create a "brand" with a sense of community momentum.
Community Collaboration
12
6. Co-ordinating Land -use
Policies: Sustainable Growth
How our communities are planned and
constructed can help facilitate the objectives
of the Community Energy Plan. We need to
imbed such measures as solar orientation
and access, district energy systems, electric
vehicle infrastructure, low -energy
subdivisions, new public transit and
walkable communities into our Regional and
Local Official Plans and Secondary Plans.
Appendix 1 - Energy Assumptions In The Three Scenarios
MEASURES BAU BAP LCP
New buildings - buildings codes & standards
1
New residential
Extrapolation
Apply projected
Incrementally increase the number of net
dwellings
of 2016
increases in OBC
zero new homes to 100% by 2030
patterns,
(15% improvement
2
New
Incrementally increase the number of
commercial,
unless noted
every five years)
buildings that achieve Passive -house levels
institutional and
of performance to 100% by 2030
industrial
buildings
Existing buildings — retrofitting
3
Retrofit homes
211 homes in 2019
By 2050, 98% of pre-1980 dwellings
built prior to
climbing to 400 by
retrofitted starting in 2019, with retrofits
1980
2030, then held
achieving thermal and electrical savings of
constant: average
50%
savings per house
1,500 kWh per year
(electricity only)
4
Retrofit homes
Increase slightly over
By 2050, 98% of dwellings built between
built after 1980
background retrofit
1980 and 2017 retrofitted, with retrofits
but before 2017
levels
achieving average thermal and electrical
savings of 40%; savings will be greater for
older buildings than newer buildings
5
Retrofits of
No change
By 2050, 98% of pre-2017 buildings
commercial and
retrofitted, with retrofits achieving average
industrial
thermal and electrical savings of 40%;
buildings
savings will be greater for older buildings
than newer buildings
Renewable energy generation (on -site, building scale)
6
Installation of
Baseline share of heat
Air source heat pumps are added to 40% of
heat pumps
pumps for heating is
residential buildings and 30% of commercial
continued for new
buildings by 2050. Ground source heat
construction
pumps are added to 20% of residential and
25% of commercial buildings by 2050.
7
Solar PV — net
By 2050, 10% of all
By 2050, 80% of all buildings have solar PV
metering
buildings have solar
systems which provide on average 30% of
PV systems which
consumption for building electrical load for
provide on average
less than 5 storeys; 10% for multi -unit
30% of consumption
buildings greater than 5 storeys and
for building electrical
commercial buildings
load for less than 5
storeys; 10% for multi-
unit and commercial
buildings
13
MEASURES
8 Solar hot water
BAU
BAP
By 2050, scale up to
LCP
Scale up to 80% of residential buildings by
20% of all residential
2050, and 50% of commercial buildings by
buildings, and 10% of
2050. Supplies 50% of hot water load
commercial buildings
by 2050; addresses
50% of hot water load
Low or zero carbon energy generation (commercial scale)
9
Solar PV —
0.5 MW per year
5 MW per year between 2018 and 2050
ground mount
between 2018 and
commercial
2050
scale
10
District energy
District
Same as BAU
Existing district energy is carbon neutral;
energy in
new systems are added in locations with
Ajax
sufficient heat density as well as village
(biomass);
centres in the north of the region; district
UOIT
cooling will also be incorporated; fuel is split
(natural gas
between geothermal and biogas
CHP):
Lakeridge
Health
cogen.
system
11
Energy storage
100 MW added by
580 MW added by 2050
2050
12
Wind
50 MW by 2050
300 MW by 2050
13
Renewable
No change
Renewable natural gas is introduced
natural gas
according to per capita allocation of 2030
potential generation
Transit
14
Expand transit
Transit expanded
Boost transit mode share guided by targets
according to existing
in the 2017 Durham Transportation Master
plans
Plan
15
Electrify transit
100% electric transit
100% electric transit system by 2030
system by 2050
(regional and inter -regional)
(regional and inter-
regional)
Active Transportation
16
Increase /
Walking and cycling
Mode shift 50% of trips less than 1 km to
improve cycling
mode share remain
walking by 2050; 50% of trips between 1
& walking
constant
and 5 km to cycling by 2050
Infrastructure
17
Increased
Rideshare mode
Double the percentage of trips that are
rideshare
share held constant
rideshare by 2050
until 2050
18
Car -free zones
None
No personal vehicular trips in dense
vehicular centrespost-2040
14
MEASURES _VrBAU BAP LCP
Private/personal use vehicles
19
Electrify
25% electric by 2030
100% of the fleet is electric by 2030
municipal fleets
20
Electrify
Electric vehicle
100% of new passenger vehicles are
personal
projection in
electric beginning in 2030
vehicles
accordance with the
updated Ontario Long
Term Energy Plan.
Assume 15% of stock
is EV by 2035.
21
Electrify
25% of the vehicle
All commercial vehicles are electric by 2050
commercial
fleet is electric by
vehicles
2050
Industrial
22
Industrial
No change
Increase process motors and electrical
efficiencies
efficiency by 50% by 2050
Assumptions in all three scenarios regarding growth in population, house-
holds and employment in Durham Region.
2016
2050
Percentage Increase
Population
720,505
1,391,379
93%
Households
241,616
503,758
108%
Jobs
230,697
403,261
74%
Notes:
15
FEEDBACK:
This document is a summary of the Draft Durham Community Energy Plan. Your feedback is
needed to move to a final plan for subsequent approval and implementation.
1. DCEP Website for comments and questions
Visit our website to provide comments on the Draft Durham Community Energy Plan:
www.durham.ca/communityenergyplan
Comments will be accepted until: December 17th, 2018
2. Stakeholder Feedback Sessions
Provide in -person feedback at two stakeholder sessions scheduled for:
Date: Thursday, November 22, 2018
Time: 9:00 am to noon or 1:00 pm to 4:00 pm
Location: Centennial Building, 416 Centre Street South, Whitby, Ontario L1 N 4W2
Register: dcepstakeholderfeedbacksessions.eve ntbrite.ca
3. Presentations to your Group
Invite staff who where involved in developing the DCEP to present it to your group or
organization for discussion and feedback throughout the Fall of 2018. To book a
presentation, contact: climatechange(a)-durham.ca
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16