HomeMy WebLinkAboutPSD-064-09Clarington
Leading the Way
REPORT
PLANNING SERVICES
Meeting: GENERAL PURPOSE AND ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE
~PA-LI~-~
Date: Monday, June 22, 2009 ', ~-s~o~~Oh
Report #: PSD-064-09 File #: PLN 9.4 By-law #:
Subject: 2008 GROWTH TRENDS REVIEW
RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee
recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PSD-064-09 be received for information.
Submitted by:
David J.`~rome, MCIP, RPP
Director of Planning Services
Reviewed by:
Franklin Wu,
Chief Administrative Officer
ate-
MM/FUdf
16 June 2009
CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L1C 3A6 T (905)623-3379 F (905)623-0830
REPORT NO.: PSD-064-09
1.0 BACKGROUND
PAGE 2
1.1 The Planning Services Department conducts on-going monitoring activities to assess
the effectiveness of the Municipality of Clarington Official Plan, as well as other
Municipal and Durham Region policies. These monitoring activities also assist in
identifying emerging issues and trends within the Municipality of Clarington. Building
permit activity and other such related data are often used as an indicator of housing and
employment activity within Clarington, the level of local investment, and economic
performance; this and other information has been compiled into the 2008 Growth
Trends Review.
2.0 KEY FINDINGS OF THE 2008 GROWTH TRENDS REVIEW
2.1 The 2008 Growth Trends Review (Attachment 1) examines Clarington's growth activity
and compares its performance against other area municipalities within Durham Region.
In addition, the Review examines past, current and forecasted housing market activity
and provides ashort-term outlook on future development activity for Clarington and
Durham Region. While current global economic events have over-shadowed and
affected the local market activity it is still important to consider Clarington's performance
in relationship to the GTA, Regional and other local municipalities.
2.2 Growth Activity in Clarington
The total value of all building permits issued in Clarington decreased by 4% from
$201.65 million in 2007. to $193.59 million in 2008. The total value of building permits
issued in 2008 was similar to the 2005 and 2007 values however, the number of
residential permits declined by 17% which was common across the GTA.
2.3 Growth Activity in Durham Region
Durham Region experienced a decrease of 9.3% in total building permit value from
$1.43 billion in 2007 to $1.29 billion in 2008. Total building permit value has edged
lower three years running in Durham. Since 2000, the total value of building permits
issued in Durham Region has averaged about $1.32 billion. The past year was the first
time since 2002 that the total building permit value for Durham Region fell below 1.3
billion.
2.4 Clarington's Share of Growth Activity within Durham Region
In 2008, Clarington's share of the total building. permit value in Durham Region
increased to 14.97%. The change observed in the past year is small compared to
previous years.
Durham Region municipalities issued building permits for a total of 3,176 new
residential units, a decrease of 15% from 2007.
REPORT NO.: PSD-064-09
PAGE 3
The number of building permits issued for new residential units has fallen short of the
forecast made in the 2005 Development Charges Background Study; however, because
of spikes in prior years the overall total of households is on target. The economic
environment has changed substantially since 2005 and as a result of tightened credit
markets and other economic factors, the demand for new residential units has been
lower than expected in the past 2 years and will be for at least the next 2 years.
A small rise in the non-residential building permit value for Clarington in 2008 increased
fhe Municipalities share of the total non-residential building permit value within Durham
Region to 7.8% in 2008.
2.5 Housing Market Indicators
The average one, three. and five year mortgage rates were lower in 2008 at 6.7%,
6.87% and 7.06% respectively. The bank rate progressed lower throughout 2008 from
4.25% in January to 1.75% in December. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
(CMHC) report that:
"Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout
2009, remaining within 25-75 basis points of their current levels.
Posted mortgage rates will increase very gradually during the course
of 2010, reflecting a rise in government of Canada bond yields."
• The number of housing starts was 3,085 in Durham Region for 2008.
• The number of housing completions was down 18% to 3,827 in 2008.
• Housing absorptions decreased 16% to 3,784 in 2008.
• The average price of a new completed and absorbed single-detached dwelling in
Durham Region was up 7.9% to $399,285 in 2008.
• In Clarington, the average price rose 7.3% to $339,840 in 2008.
2.6 Short-Term Outlook
For 2009, CMHC is forecasting that housing starts and resale home sales will slow as
the market moderates. Income growth has slowed and as a result, affordable housing
will be in demand while the market for higher priced housing will be down significantly.
According to CMHC, housing starts in Ontario "will range somewhere between 50,000
and 60,000 units in 2009 before staging a modest pick-up in 2010." Single detached
housing starts will continue to decrease ahead of multi-unit dwellings. Prices have been
loweracross Southern Ontario in the first half of 2009.
Overall, the pace of residential building permit activity in the Municipality of Clarington
decreased 9.5% in 2008, while the value decreased by 7.8%. Durham Region
experienced a decrease of 18.3% in residential building permit value for 2008.
Clarington has maintained a strong share (+2.4%) of all residential building permit
activity within .Durham Region for 2008 holding 20.2% of the value for permits issued
throughout the Region. The Municipality brought in the third highest residential building
permit value in the Region in 2008.
REPORT NO.: PSD-064-09
PAGE 4
Durham Region experienced an increase of 6.2% in non-residential building permit
value for 2008. The Municipality of Clarington has maintained the position of fourth
largest share (7.8%) of non-residential building permit value. The value of non-
residential building permits in Durham for 2008 at $569.65 million was the second
highest level achieved in the Region's history.
In Ontario, non-residential building permit activity was up slightly in 2008. Across the
country, investment in non-residential building activity was strong in the first part of 2008
however it slowed later in the year. This downward trend has continued to date in 2009:
The Royal Bank Financial Group forecast that growth is expected to begin to rebound
later this year.
2.7 Short-Term Population and Household Forecasts
The Municipality of Clarington estimated its population for 2008 to be 82,590 and when
adjusted for the undercount would be approximately 85,900. The total number of
households was anticipated to be 28,900; however, while the population growth is
keeping pace the anticipated rate of growth of the number of residential permits has
declined. The estimated number of households did not fully materialize in 2007 or 2008
it is however moderated by under estimations in prior years particularly 2004. The
anticipated increase in household units for 2009 will not be achieved..
Whether the anticipated growth will recover in 2010 will be highly dependent on other
economic drivers and the stability of the employment market. The anticipated reduction
in household size from 2.9 persons per household has not occurred. Rather in difficult
economic times children live at home longer, people take on housemates, young people
rent rather than purchase and other living arrangements occur to help combat economic
hardships. As a result, although population targets are being met, household targets are
less than anticipated.
Durham Region estimated its population to be 609,680 and the total number of
households to be 205,024. The estimation of population for Durham may be 15,000 -
25,000 persons higher than the actual population when compared to the 2006 census
results and the residential permits being issued are not supporting the household
growth rates estimated by the Region, at this time.
Attachments:
Attachment 1 - 2008 Growth Trends
Attachment1
To Report PSD-064-09
2008 Growth
Trends Review
PLANNING SERVICES DEPARTMENT
Clam n
Leading the Way
857
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Purpose of the Building Permit Activity Review
The Planning Services Department conducts on-going monitoring activities to
assess the effectiveness of the Municipality. of Clarington Official Plan, as well
as other municipal and Durham Region policies. These monitoring activities
also assist in identifying emerging issues and trends within the Municipality of
Clarington. Building permit activity and other such related data are often used
as an indicator of housing and employment activity within Clarington, the level
of local investment, and economic performance.
1.2 Information Sources
The data collected and analyzed in this report is based on building permit
information and housing market information gathered from a variety of sources.
These sources include:
^ Municipality of Clarington's own-source data;
^ Durham Region;
^ Statistics Canada;
^ Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation;
^ Royal Bank of Canada Economics Research; and
^ The Bank of Canada
1.3 Publishing of Building Permit Activity Review
The Planning Services Department publishes the Building Permit Activity
Review on an annual basis. Copies of the document are available from the
Planning Services Department directly or can alternatively be accessed online
through the Municipality of Clarington's website at www.clarington.net.
1.4 Contact Information
Should you have any questions, comments, and/or suggestions concerning the
Building Permit Activity Review, please contact the Planning Services
Department by telephone at 905-623-3379 or by email at
planning@clarington.net.
2.0 OVERALL GROWTH TRENDS
2.1 Total Building Permit Value in Clarington
The total value of all building permits issued in Clarington decreased by 4%
from $201.65 million in 2007 to $193.59 million in 2008. The total value of
building permits issued in 2008 was similar to the 2005 and 2007 values
(Figure 1.0). Since 19932, the total value of building permits issued in
Clarington has averaged approximately $134.27 million per year. The results of
'Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2009.
z Prior to 1993 the Municipality of Clarington was named the Town of Newcastle. This annual building
permit review does not include data from before 1993.
858
2008 continue to raise the average, which can be attributed to the inflationary
raise in the cost of construction and material cost increases.
Figure 1.0-Total Building Permit Value in Clarington, 1993-2008
250000000
200000000
150000000
IS1
loooooooD
50000000
0
Year
As Figure 2.0 (next page) illustrates, the decrease in total building permit value
for Clarington can be attributed to a decline in residential building permit
number values. The non-residential building permit value increased 11:2%
from $39.98 million in 2007 to $44.45 million in 2008 whereas the residential
building permit value decreased by about 7.8% from $161.67 million in 2007 to
$149.14 million in 20083. Gains made in 2007 in residential building permit
activity were lost in 2008 as the residential building permit value weakened to
around the same values as reported in 2006, however, the number of permits
are down. While non-residential building permits edged slightly higher in 2008,
the increase in value did not fully compensate for the reduction in residential
building permit value for the year.
Figure 2.0 -Total Building Permit Value by Residential/Non-Residential
Sector in Clarington, 2000-2008
$180,000,000.00
$160,000,000.00
$140,000,000.00
$120,000,000.00
($) $100,000,000.00
$80,000,000.00
$60,000,000.00
$40,000,000.00
$20,000,000.00
$-
Year
^ Residential ^ N°n-Residential
s Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2009.
Pagel2
859
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2.2 Total Building Permit Value in Durham Region
Durham- Region experienced a decrease of 9.3% in total building permit value
from $1.43 billion in 2007 to $1.29 billion in 20084. Total building permit value
has edged lower three years running in Durham Region (Figure 3). Since
2000, the total value of building permits issued in Durham Region has averaged
about $1.32 billion. 2008 was a below average year as a result of lower
building permit activity than in the past several years. The past year was the
first time since 2002 that the total building permit value for Durham Region fell
below 1.3 billion.
Figure 3 -Total Building Permit Value in Durham Region, 2000-2008
laoooaoooo
1600000000
1400000000
1200000000
1000000000
($) 800000000
600000000
400000000
200000000
0
Year
Clarington and Durham Region experienced a decline in total building .permit
value in 2008. The residential building permit value contracted and the non-
residential building permit value roses both in Clarington and Durham Region
as a whole. For the third year in a row, Durham Region saw growth in the
value of non-residential building permits and a reduction in the value of
residential building permits6. In both cases, declines in the residential sector
were not fully offset by gains in the non-residential sector. The value of non-
residential building permits has been rising steadily in Durham Region for the
past five years.
2.3 Share of Total Building Permit Value in Durham Region
In 2008, Clarington's share of the total building permit value in Durham Region
increased by 0.82% from 14.15% in 2007 to 14.97% in 20087 (Table 1). The
change observed in the past year is small compared to previous years.
4 Durham Region Planning Department, Annual Building Permit Activity Review, 2008.
e Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2009.
e Durham Region Planning Department, Annual Building Permit Activity Review, 2008.
~ Durham Region Planning Department, Annual Building Permit Activity Review, 2008.
Page~3
860
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Table 1 -Share of Total Building Permit Value in Durham Region, 2000-2008
Year Total Value
'Total Value Share of % Change
(from
(Durham) (Clarington) Durham (by previous
Clarington)
year)
997,400,000.00 97,760,960.34. 9.80% X
889,700,000.00 131,319,432.00 14.76% 4.96%
1,200,000,000.00. 120,764,948.00 10.06% -4.70%
' 1,700,000,000.00 172,409,655.00 10.14% 0.08%
1,300,000,000.00 213,848,329.00 16.45% 6.31%
1,560,000,000.00 203,220,114.00 13.03% -3.42%
1,548,000,000.00 235,245,253.00 15.20% 2.17%
1,425,000,000.00 201,648,127.00 14.15% -1.05%
1,293,100,000.00 193,588,646.00 14.97% 0.82%
3.0 -RESIDENTIAL GROWTH
3.1 Total Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington
In 2008, the value of residential building permits issued ih Clarington totaled
$149.14 million8, which to date is the fourth highest value of residential building
permits issued by the. Municipality in one calendar year. The total value of
residential building permits issued in 2008 was down 7.8% from 2007 returning
to approximately the same value as 2006 (Figure 4). The Municipality has
averaged $98.71 million in annual residential building permit value between
1993 and 2008.
Figun: 4 -Total Building Permit Value in Clarington, 1993-2008
"Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2009.
Page 14
861
3.2 Share of New Residential Building Permit Value in Durham Region
As Figure 5 shows; Clarington's residential building permits issued in 2008
ranked third in value for all of Durham Region contributing 20.2% of the total
values. Clarington's share increased 2.4% from 2007 when the Municipality
contributed about 17.8% of the total residential building permit value for
Durham Region.
Figure 5 -Share of Total Residential Building Permit Value in Durham Region, 2008
Clarington
Brock 20.2%
Ajax
21.0%
)shawa
21.8%
Bickering
8.8%
3.3 New Residential Unit Production in Clarington
In 2008, residential building permits were issued for 593 new units in
Clarington, down 9.5% from 655 in 200770. Historically, the number of new
residential units approved for construction has averaged 714 units per year
since 1994. The number of building permits issued in 2008 falls short of this
number by 121 units or 17%, which accounts for the decline in the total value of
residential construction in the Municipality for the year. In addition, the number
of building permits issued for new residential units has fallen significantly short
of the forecast made in the 2005 Development Charges Background Study
(Figure 6). However, over production in prior years, such as 2004, have a
moderating effect. Overall the estimation while off on a year to year basis is
relatively accurate over the long term.
The economic environment has changed substantially since 2005 and as a
result of tightened credit markets and other economic factors, the demand for
new residential units has been lower than anticipated.
e Durham Region Planning Department, Annual Building Permit Activity Review, 2008.
'0 Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2009.
Page~S
862
Whitby Uxbridge 2.5%
19.7% 5.1%
Figure 8 • New Residential Units Approved for Construction in Clarington,
19942011
taro
~ a°o
ero
M of New Untie Approved
for Construction
WO
400
200
0
Pn' i~ m m ~ ~i o ~ ~ ~ ~ rv cri t~ gi ~ Pv ~i
Year
^New Resdential Units Approved ^2005 DC Background Study Fore[ast
"indicates Year to Date
The urban centres of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle continue to make
the strongest contributions to the total number of new residential units approved
for construction in Clarington. In 2008, these centres accounted for over- 90%
of new residential units approved for construction in the Municipality" (Table
2). The share contributed by each community remained relatively stable for
2008 with the exception of the trade-off in share between Bowmanville and
Courtice. The hamlet of Newtonville experienced an increase in the number of
permits in 2008 as the Veltri subdivision was registered in late 2007.
Table 2 -Residential Building Permits by Area in Clarington, 2008-2008
200 2007 07-08
Area Units % Share .Units % Share Chan e
340 57.34% 451 68.85% -11.52%
134 22.60% 82 12.52% 10.08%
60 10.12% 77 11.76% -1.64%
30 5.06% 16 2.44% 2.62%
2 0.34% 1 0.15% 0.18%
10 1.69% 6 0.92% 0.77%
5 0.84% 11 1.68% -0.84%
0 0.00% 1 0.15% -0.15%
0 0.00% 1 0.15% -0.15%
0 0.00% 1 0.15% -0.15%
7 1.18% 2 0.31% 0.88%
0 0.00% 6 0.92% -0.92%
5 0.84% 0 0.00% 0.84%
593 100.00% 655 100.00% 0.00%
The number of building permits issued in rural areas of the Municipality has
fluctuated greatly over the years, but recently has settled back to levels
"Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2009.
Page l6
863
observed in the mid 1990's (Figure 7)12. The current trend (reduction in
building permits issued in rural areas) is positive since growth is to be directed
to urban areas as per the Provincial Policy Statement (2005) and the
Municipality of Clarington Official Plan (1996). Residential growth in
Clarington's rural area has exceeded the targets set out by the 1996 Official
I Plan and are anticipated to continue to decline.
Figure 7 -Residential Building Permits in Rural Areas of Clarington, 1994-2007
too
y a , f £
720 `
~,g S
10~ 5
tz- 2tt i, rv~§ +~~ ~ 3 ? r 3 t "n 1 ~ h
`' ~'`'~' ~ ~ ' '` '~ oHamlets
p of Building Permits 80 ~- ;-~ ~,~ ~~ ~ ?
Issued ;~ ~ ~ "~ r ~ `" + ~~ ~ .~ 3' ~' ~ , ~ ^Clarke
60
h ;~ ,~~~ , E ~. ;. ~ k ~!. ^Darlington
a ~" , r, ,th-s.c e~
40 ~
20 J
0
'i
Yea
In 2008, building permits issued for single detached homes dominated all other
activity. The number of permits for this type of dwelling moved higher from
2007 to 2008 controlling about 75% of the market during the last calendar
i year13. The number of permits issued for semi-detached dwellings and
townhouses was lower in 2008, with fewer than half the number of building
permits issued for townhouses in 2008 compared to the pervious year. Building
permits issued for apartment developments remained low in 2008 having less
than 1 % share of the market (Table 3).
Table 3 -New Residential Units in Clarin ton b T pe, 2007-2008
Type of New
Residential 20D8 °~ Share 2007 % Share
Unit
447 75.38% 434 66.26%
i
i
92 15.51% 116 17.71%
49 8.26% 102 15.57%
5 0.84% 3 0.46%
" 593 X 655 X
'Z Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2009.
'a Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2009.
Page ~ 7
864
3.4 Share of New Residential Unit Production in Durham Region
In 2008, Durham Region municipalities issued building permits for a total of
3,176 new residential units, a decrease of 15% from 3,738 in 200714 (Figure 8).
Clarington's share of the total number of new residential units in 2007 was
18.7%, up slightly from 17.5% in 2007. Although that the number of residential
building permits issued in Clarington fell in 2008 the decline was not as
significant as other municipalities in Durham Region. Uxbridge saw the most
significant reduction in permits issued this year with a 49% reduction from
2007. Ajax and Whitby also issued significantly fewer permits in 2008 down
30% and 24% respectively. This could be an indication that the greenfield
development opportunities have shifted east to Clarington and north Oshawa
with the dwindling land supply in western Durham. However, the Growing
Durham Amendment No. 128 vastly increases the supply of Greenfield
development lands in west Durham.
Figure 8 -New Residential Unit Production by Area Municipality in Durham
Region, 2407-2008
1000 .,..;yy ~ °'^~." '" a a ,P"• ,u ,,.s,; •'` ;4. `*'x,.x. e`;~ . z.-,':x
700 ,,~ s c , ~. ~, T&ti^ '~ ~" €.<: .=t. `'.~
em'~ t'i't--; ~'a;, Kx.,:..,,, v ~''
600 >xr :i~-, 4"' ,>~.: t '"` -.» I'"t^,
Units 500 .,
4W ~Zn t ~ ~ ~ ;~x.,o.
,~.:y; .~ 3 ~,.,.
300 `
-~ . -
.,
200 ' ~`
y
100
. ~.-
Ajax Brack Clarington Oshawa Pickering Scugog Uxhridge Whitby
^2007 904 19 656 785 190 44 227 913
^2008 631 18 593 780 265 79 115 695
Municipality
3.5 Housing Market Indicators
The average one, three and five year mortgage rates were lower in 2008 at
6.7%, 6.87% and 7.06% respectively in comparison to 2007 at 6.9%, 7.09%
and 7.07% respectively (Figure 9).15 The bank rate progressed lower
throughout 2008 from 4.25% in January to 1.75% in December. Canada
Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) report that, "Mortgage rates are
expected to be relatively stable throughout 2009, remaining within 25-75 basis
points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will increase very gradually
during the course of 2010, reflecting a rise in government of Canada bond
yields.^1s
14 Durham Region Planning Department, Annual Building Permit Activity Review, 2008.
15 Bank of Canada: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/cgi-bin/famecgi_fdps
16 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook -Greater Toronto Area,
Spring, 2009
Page~8
865
Figure 9 -Average Monthly Bank Interest Rates, 2007-2008
Up ' xr,
7 S.
S ~
~ .~~k 3S, ~ SY ~, sax„ ''t ~z i p Y d ~. a . r F.
~ } r
Rate I%) 4 .. r .: :,'- ' " '
3 4 ..xa s~ }~k ~+ e .~ }. ' { .
~` c.-, fr:4 .yC '~ ,'X$.`.4z. :; ~a'` , t ~ ~ x. d i s ~ ~ Zap . '~ '
~ x
~ ~ ~` ~ ~' T" ., " s'~ ,i d rs i ~
0 ~;~~ ,w a, , < ~ .e ., ~ a .. ~
~ ~ ~ Kl ~ ~ ~ ~ m O ~ p ~ ii rc Q m ~ ~ ~ m p Z ~
4 c° ~ ¢ rn
i
2007 2008 '
Month,Tear
--~-Bank Rate tlYear Mortgage 3Year Mortgage ---SYear Mortgage
The number of housing starts was 3,085 in Durham Region for 2008, down
substantially (20%) from 3,870 in 2007. Similarly, the number of housing
completions was down 18% from 4,685 in 2007 to 3,827 in 2008. Housing
absorptions also decreased 16% from 4,518 in 2007 to 3,784 in 2008t' (Figure
10).
Figure 10 -Housing Starts, Completions and Absorptions in Durham
Region, 2007-2008
5000 ,
f ~ {
4000 .~ s a .t
~._ p$, s {
~ fi ~ ~ 1s;,
3000 <
Units ' "`-~: <,,~:. t ~ _;
i. - 2060 ,~, ~ -,.. .. ~ .~.
~ _ t ~ { r+
7000 ~ ~ ~ ~"
s, ~
' 0 ]
Starts Completions Absorptions
•2007 •2008
The average price of a new completed and absorbed single-detached dwelling
in Durham Region was up 7.9% from $370,001 in 2007 to $399,285 in 2008. In
Clarington, prices rose 7.3% from $316,621 in 2007 to $339,840 in 200818
17 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now -Greater Toronto Area, Jan. 2009
to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now -Greater Toronto Area, Jan. 2009.
Page~9
866
(Figure 11). Clarington continues to be an affordable place to live within
Durham Region and the Greater Toronto Area.
Figure 70 -Housing Prices for Single Detached Homes, 2007-2008
The total number of households is estimated to be 28,90019 which is still on-
target despite under-performance in the past 2 years; prior year over production
account for the difference.
The Durham Region estimated its population to be 609,680 and the total
number of households to be 205,024 °. The estimation of population for
Durham may be 15,000 - 25,000 persons higher than the actual population
when compared to the 2006 census results and growth rates for the Region.
Clarington's estimate has 2.86 people per household21. Statistics Canada 2006
census results show that the number is 2.9 people per household22, which
matches the trends predicted by Clarington's Development Charges
Background Study. Household sizes are decreasing in Clarington, which is a
reflection of the aging population and the older population that is attracted to
Clarington such as at the Wilmot Creek Retirement Community and Clarington
Arms. Furthermore, a member of walkup apartments have been constructed in
recent years which cater to smaller households.
19 Municipality of Clarington Development Charges Background Study, 2005.
20 Growing Durham, Annotated Consolidation of Regional Official Plan Amendment Number 128, June
3, 2009.
Z' Municipality of Clarington Development Charges Background Study, 2005.
zz Statistics Canada, www.statcan.ca Clarington Community Profile, 2006.
Page~10
867
The Growing Durham Annotated Consolidation of Regional Official Plan
Amendment Number 128 indicates that Durham's population is expected to
reach approximately 621,120 by the end of 2009 and 643,980 by the end of
201123, which represents a growth rate of 1.95% annually. For the same
period, the Development Charges Background Study indicates that Clarington's
population is expected to grow to approximately 84,800 by the end of 2009 and
reach 89,400 by the end of 2011. This represents a growth rate of 2.7%
annually.
Durham Region is expected to have approximately 210,216 households by the
end of 2009 and 220,600 by the end of 201124. The number of households in
Clarington is expected to grow to approximately 29,830 by the end of 2009 and
31,790 by the end of 201125 (Table 4). It is unlikely we will achieve this
estimate it is anticipated that household size will continue to stay at
approximately 2.9 rather than decline as anticipated in the short term.
Table 4 -Short-Term Population & Household Estimates for Clarington
and Durham Re ion, 2009-2011
% %
Clarington Durham Population
Clarington Durham Households
Year population Region Share of Households Region Share of
Population Region for Households Region for
Clarington Clarington
84,800 621,120 13.65% 29,830 210,216 14.19%
87,070 632,550 13.76% 30,790 215,408 14.29%
89,400 643,980 13.88% 31,790 220,600 14.41%
Both of these growth number do not reflect economic considerations in the
short term.
4.0 NON-RESIDENTIAL GROWTH
4.1 Total Non-Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington
The value of non-residential building permits issued in Clarington during 2008
was $44.45 million, an increase of 11.2% from 2007 when the value of building
permits issued in Clarington topped $39.98 million. This overall rise in the non-
residential building permit value in 2008 was due to a 234% increase in the
value of industrial building permits issued and a significant increase in the
23 Growing Durham, Annotated Consolidation of Regional Official Plan Amendment Number 128, June
3, 2009.
24 Growing Durham, Annotated Consolidation of Regional Official Plan Amendment Number 128, June
3 2009.
x~ Municipality of Clarington Development Charges Background Study, 2005.
Page ~ 11
868
building permit value in the government category26. The decrease in the value
of commercial building permits was substantial, down 68% from 2007, but was
offset by the increase in value of the industrial and government categories
(Figure 13). In 2008, the value of agricultural and institutional building permits
issued by the Municipality of Clarington remained at 2007 levels..
Figure 11 -Non-Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington, 2006-2006
97,000,000
45 007 000 ~ 4~~,'^c + ~' s= " s r.~ w 7 '" ~ ' a -
~ ~.~
'n .3; Y era w~ ~ .$ ~ -+` x n +t' ` < w
~.W0,000 C
'. ~ '.yit xs ~ v.:x+ 4 k h
~.~0,000 't .~.~"`°*e~,`'~ t
} Y.1 11. e: .. ~"~~~^~..'T
i S 25.000.000 ,~,.~. 5Gi ~ .~ s, er1~~~~kuvi,~~{n yid ~ ~, -:
I I 20.000.000 ,~,~ ~ -~ ,. " ~ € -c s
10,000,000 „
5,000,000 ,-, '~.~; < .. ~'::~. +s. ~s:~
Indusidal Garemment Commercial Institutional Ag ncultural
TYPe
i ^2008 ^300T ^2006 ^2005
The following list highlights the major non-residential building projects reported
in 2007:
• Algoma Orchards apple storage and packing building, Clarke ($5
~. I. million);
• Boston Pizza, Bowmanville ($968,480);
• Clarington Public Library, Newcastle Branch, Newcastle
($1,670, 000);
• H R Welding -New Industrial Building, Bowmanville ($1,215,056);
• New Ambulance Facility, Courtice ($1,500,000); and
• Addition to Waverly Public School, Bowmanville (1,316,000).
4.2 Share of Non-Residential Building Permit Value in Durham
l
A small rise in the non-residential building permit value for Clarington in 2008
increased the Municipalities share of the total non-residential building permit
value within Durham Region from 7.7% in 2007 to 7.8% in 2008 (Figure 14).
Oshawa and Ajax experienced the most significant decrease in share from
2007 to 2008, down 8.3% and 7% respectively, while Pickering and Whitby
made the most significant gains, up 7..75% and 5.1 % respectively, in share for
the last calendar year. Scugog had a slight increase in share while all other
municipalities in the Region remained relatively neutral27 za.
zfi Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2008.
27 Municipality of Clarington, Engineering Services Department, 2008.
ze Durham Region Planning Department, Annual Building Permit Activity Review, 2008.
I
Pagel12
869
Figure 12 -Share of Total Non-Residential Building Pennit
Value in Durham Region, 2008
Whitby, Flax, 11.52%
Brock, 1.09%
18.66%
Uxbridge, Clarington,
1.69% 7i 80% I
Scugog, 3.
Pickering, ~
12.78%
Oshawa,
42.50%
4.3 Non-Residential Floor Space Production in Clarington
Clarington's production of non-residential floor space decreased 45.4% or
177,600 square feet from 391,300 square feet being added in 2007 to 213,700
square feet being added in 2008. Of the municipalities in Durham Region, non-
residential floor space production saw significant increases and decreases from
the previous year. Ajax (+14%) and Scugog (+50.6%) made modest gains
while Whitby (+128.6%), Pickering (+324.4%) and Brock (+345.4%) made
significant gains in 2008. Oshawa (-53.6%) experienced a decrease in floor
space production for 2008 similar to Clarington while Uxbridge (-17.3%) had a
modest decrease29.
5.0 -SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
5.1 Residential Building Permit Activity
Overall, the pace of residential building permit activity in the Municipality of
Clarington decreased 9.5% in 2008, while the value decreased by 7.8%.
Durham Region experienced a decrease of 18.3% in residential building permit
value for 2008. Clarington has maintained a strong share (+2.4%) of all
residential building permit activity within Durham Region for 2008 holding
20.2% of the value for permits issued throughout the Region. The Municipality
brought the third greatest residential building permit value in the Region behind
Ajax (21%) and Oshawa (21.8%).
For 2009, CMHC is forecasting that housing starts and resale home sales will
slow as the market moderates. Income growth has slowed and as a result,
affordable housing will be in demand while the market for higher priced housing.
29 Durham Region Planning Department, Annual Building Permit Activity Review, 2007.
Pagel l3
870
will be down significantly.30 According to CMHC, housing starts in Ontario "will
range somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000 units in 2009 before staging a
modest pick-up in 2010." Single detached housing starts will continue to
decrease ahead of multi unit dwellin~s. Prices have been lower across
Southern Ontario in the first half of 2009 '.
5.2 Non-Residential Building Permit Activity
Overall, the non-residential building permit activity in Clarington has decreased
by 13.5% in 2008, while the value increased by 11.2%. Durham Region
experienced an increase of 6.2% in non-residential building permit value for
2008. The Municipality of Clarington has maintained the position of fourth
largest share (7.8%) of non-residential building permit value within Durham
Region. The value of non-residential building permits in Durham for 2008 at
$569.65 million was the second highest level achieved in the Region's history
(the highest was $650 million is 2003).
In Ontario, non-residential building permit activity was up slightly in 2008.
Across the country, investment in non-residential building activity was strong in
the first part of 2008 however it slowed later in the year. This downward trend
continued for the first half of 200932. The Royal Bank of Canada anticipates
growth to begin to rebound later this year.33 Planning Services Department has
undertaken a number of early consultation meetings on projects and, as one
example, anticipate that the west end Bowmanville project will commence
construction in the last quarter of 2009.
30 CMHC, Housing Market Outlook, Canadian Highlights -First Quarter 2009.
37 CMHC, Housing Market Outlook, Ontario Region Highlights -First Quarter 2009.
32 Statistics Canada, The Daily www.statcan.gc.ca
33 RBC Economics Research, 2009. www.rbc.com/economics
Pageil4
871