The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutPSD-115-08 Chrin�W�/�/n REPORT Leading the Way V PLANNING SERVICES Meeting: GENERAL PURPOSE AND ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE Date: Monday, November 3, 2008 ��sol,��-;cm#G (�13-1©ob-off Report M PSD-115-08 File #: PLN 1.1.12 By-law M Subject: REGION'S GROWING DURHAM — DRAFT RECOMMENDED GROWTH SCENARIO AND POLICY DIRECTIONS — REPORT DATED SEPTEMBER 23, 2008 PLACES TO GROW IMPLEMENTATION RECOMMENDATIONS: It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee recommend to Council the following: 1. THAT Report PSD-115-08 be received; 2. THAT Report PSD-115-08 be endorsed as Council's formal comments on the Region's Draft Recommended Growth Scenario and Policy Directions Report dated September 23, 2008; and 3. THAT this report be sent to the area municipalities, Regional Planning, the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure. Submitted by: Reviewed by: 3 Davd . rome, M.C.I.P., R.P.P. Franklin Wu Director, Planning Services Chief Administrative Officer DJ/COS/sh/df/sn October 30, 2008 CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON 40 TEMPERANCE STREET; BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L1C 3A6 T(905)623-3379 F (905)623-0830 REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 2 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 The purpose of this report is to provide Council with a further update on the Region's planning process to conform to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006. The report also contains Staff recommendations on the Growing Durham Draft Recommended Growth Scenario and Policy Directions Report released on September 23, 2008. 2.0 BACKGROUND 2.1 On February 4, 2008 Council received Report PSD-015-08. The report provided an update on the implementation of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006. At that time. • The Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal had not yet issued the final built boundary; and • The Region of Durham had just released their 1st report of their Growth Plan Implementation Study, entitled "Growing Durham, Growth Plan Implementation Study, Draft — Phase 1 & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis", prepared by Urban Strategies Inc. in consultation with C.N Watson & Associates and TSH Consulting Engineers. 2.2 The Region's consultants developed three growth scenarios for the region. A report to Regional Planning Committee described the three scenarios as follows: • Scenario 1: Continuing a Dominant West Anchor— the majority of the forecasted residential and employment growth is directed to the western anchor of the Region. • Scenario 2: Focusing on a Central Hub for Durham — the focus of growth is directed to the central urban area of the Region (Whitby/Oshawa/Courtice) to strengthen this focal point and enhance it as the core hub of the Region; and, • Scenario 3: Reinforcing Existing Communities — this scenario directs the forecasted growth to existing communities in a way that corresponds to the strong east-west settlement and mobility patterns in the Region. Growth will be directed to the regionally designated centres and corridors, emerging urban villages and transit station areas across the Lake Ontario shoreline municipalities. 2.3 Regional Planning Committee decided that rather than proceeding with different scenarios, a preferred growth scenario would be selected for formal comments and public input. This review was to take place prior to a review of the infrastructure and fiscal implications. 2.4 On June 3, 2008 Regional Planning Committee received the consultants' Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario Working Paper. Regional Staff, in their report, described the Preferred Growth Scenario as follows: Scenario 3 — Reinforcing Existing Communities proposes balanced future growth across the Lake Ontario shoreline municipalities and measured growth in the Northern communities. By balancing growth across the Region and planning for measured growth in the Northem communities, this scenario reinforces all key drivers important to the economic prosperity of the Region: REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 3 Highway 407 extension including employment growth along this corridor in north-east Pickering and further east, Highway 7 and employment growth along this corridor, the build out of the Seaton lands, UOIT/Durham College campus expansion and business park, and the Clarington Energy Park. Future growth is directed in a manner that respects and builds on existing east- west and northern settlement and mobility patterns. Future residential and employment lands are proposed to enhance opportunities for creating complete communities, where people can live and work with access to public amenities including transit." 2.5 Regional Planning Committee authorized Staff to proceed with public and agency consultation on the recommended preferred Growth Scenario 3. An open house was held on June 25, 2008. In addition, Regional Staff, as directed by Planning Committee, presented a report to their Joint Planning, Works and Finance and Administration Committees on June 10, 2008. The purpose of the report was to expand the scope of the Growth Plan Implementation study in order to undertake a detailed fiscal impact analysis of the preferred growth scenario in terms of infrastructure, health and social services. Regional Staff were authorized on September 17, 2008 to proceed with the fiscal impact analysis; however, most of the work would be done only after the land use structure has been determined. The fiscal impact analysis is expected to take approximately two years to complete. 2.6 Regional Staff received fifty-five submissions on the Preferred Growth Scenario as of July 24, 2008, which included preliminary comments from the Clarington Planning Services Department. A copy of Staffs comments is enclosed as Attachment 1. Clarington Planning Staff met with the consultants and Regional Staff on two occasions during August and September. 2.7 On September 23, 2008 the Region released the Recommended Growth Management Option & Initial Policy Recommendations Report. This report provides a recommended growth scenario for the Planning Committee's consideration. A copy of the consultants' report was distributed to the Mayor and members of Council on September 29, 2008. 2.8 Proposed Municipal comments are indicated in bold italics. More detailed comments on the proposed policy direction are included in Attachment 2. 3.0 CLARINGTON UNDER THE RECOMMENDED GROWTH SCENARIO 3.1 The following section of the report describes the implications of the Recommended Growth Management Option & Initial Policy Recommendations for Clarington, with specific attention to: REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 4 • Population and household projections; • Intensification within the built boundary; • Housing unit forecast for Greenfields; • Employment forecasts and land needs; and Hemson Consulting has been retained to develop area specific forecasts for the Clarington Official Plan Review. In preparation for bringing our Local Official Plan in conformity with the Growth Plan, staff requested Hemson Consulting Limited to provide comments and advice on the long range growth forecast of population and housing to 2031 and of employment to 2056 for the Region, as set out in the Growing Durham Draft Recommended Growth Scenario and Policy Directions Report. Hemson's memorandum is included as Attachment 3. 3.2 The Region's consultants submitted a Land Use Map: entitled the Recommended Growth Scenario: Balanced Growth. The map illustrates their proposed land needs allocation across the Region, the structural growth elements to accommodate and serve the forecasted growth, as well as the lands that will be required beyond 2031 for employment and living areas. The recommended Growth Scenario Map will be referenced in the sections that follow. 3.3 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 3.3.1 The Region's consultants project that Clarington will reach a population of 140,000 by 2031, which is an increase of 58,600 or 72% over our 2006 population of 81,400. These population and household projections result in an additional 25,270 new units for Clarington by 2031. This implies the construction of 1,011 housing units annually over the next 25 years, which is significantly higher (approx. 34%) than the annual average of 750 units constructed annually in Clarington over the last 10 years. Table 1 Population and Household Projections 2006 81,400 2.9 2011 87,900 6,500 2.78 2016 96,900 15,500 2.72 2021 107,900 26,500 2.63 2026 127,200 45,800 2.61 2031 140,000 58,600 2.57 The Growing Durham scenario evaluation mentions that housing demand in Clarington will gradually increase for several reasons including, but not limited to, the following: • The availability of competitively priced housing; • The attractiveness of this area to the 55+ population, specifically empty nesters/young seniors (65-74) looking for adult-lifestyle housing or retirement/semi- retirement living; REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 5 • The easterly extension of Highway 407 to Highway 35/115, which is anticipated to greatly improve commuting flows and the movement of goods to and from Clarington; and • Future local employment opportunities largely connected to UOIT and the Clarington Energy Business Park. 3.3.2 The proportion of the total number of Regional households in Clarington increased steadily from 12% (1991) to about 14% (2006). The proportion of the Region's household in Clarington at 2031 is projected to be slightly higher at approximately 15%. 3.3.3 The population and housing units forecast for all Durham Municipalities and the related land area requirements for urban expansion are shown on Table 2. Clarington is forecast to be the third fastest growing municipality in the Region (behind Pickering and Whitby) but due to available designated land, minimal urban boundary expansions are necessary. Table 2 Po ulation, Housin Unit Forecast and Land Need by Muni ci ali Pickering 139,900 50,557 810 443 A'ax 47,500 18,195 120 93 Whitby 80,700 32,221 1060 10 Oshawa 35,100 23,236 321 Clarington 58,600 25,276 145 Brock 1,500 1,751 44 Uxbrid a 6,900 3,990 119 126 Scu o 3,000 2,749 153 v Q ,, RMEM The total amount of future growth (expansion areas) in the Recommended Growth Scenario is 3,007 ha (7,430 acres). 3.3.4 Generally, Hemson agreed with the forecast methodology but had the following main concerns: • There is a significant difference between the Region's overall housing mix forecast in the report dated June 13, 2008, and the report dated September 23, 2008 which has resulted in the estimated number and proportion of forecasted high-density units in the Region to effectively double. • The Region assumes that the increasing number (and proportion) of high density units to 2031 will lead to different types of households being accommodated in Durham. This assumption is not supportable in the context of household formation patterns in the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH). Planning policy may be able to influence how these households will be accommodated in housing units but not the total number of households or the persons per unit required. • There are reasons to question the number of higher density units forecast for Clarington in the later part of the period to 2031. The total number of high density units forecast to 2031 is predicated on the Municipality achieving about 300 units REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 6 per year from 2021 to 2031. This is a very aggressive forecast, not only in the context of historic demand for apartments in Clarington, but especially within the context of the wider Regional forecast. Given its geographic location, Clarington will always be at a competitive disadvantage with its neighbouring lakeshore municipalities in attracting the market for high density units. Achieving more compact development in Clarington through higher density housing types at the rate being proposed by the Region is, therefore, unrealistic. • The unique position of the Municipality of Clarington is reflected in the Region's growth forecasts and growth management strategy. However, the forecast shift in growth patterns is unrealistic with respect to the number of high-density residential units anticipated for the Municipality. 3.3.5 The Region should address the details of the memo from Hemson Ltd. with respect to the Durham Growth Plan. 3.3.6 Staff generally support the Region's position on limited urban boundary expansion for Living Areas for Courtice and Bowmanville for 2031 shown in the Study. However insufficient time has been provided for the area municipalities to review the Study and consult with the Region on the details of their assumptions. On the basis of our review to date, there may be need for further adjustments. 3.4 INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE BUILT BOUNDARY 3.4.1 To implement some of the key policies of the Provincial Growth Plan, such as the intensification targets and densities for Greenfield development, the Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal released the Built Boundary in its final form on April 2, 2008, Map 1 on the next page of this report outlines the Built Boundaries for our urban areas, as set by the Province. The Built Boundary is a fixed line that reflects what was "built" when the Provincial Growth Plan came into effect on June 16, 2006. The Built Boundary will allow the Province, Region, and Municipality to measure intensification and redevelopment within the built-up area, as well as Greenfield development outside the built-up area. The Provincial Growth Plan specifies that by 2015 and each year thereafter, a minimum of 40% of new residential development must occur within the Built Boundary of each 1 upper or single-tier municipality. Although the 40% will be measured at the Regional level, the Region's consultants in their September 23rd report have distributed the Region's intensification target among the area municipalities. i Lands that lie outside the Built Boundary, but within the settlement area boundary, are subject to the Provincial Growth Plan's "Designated Greenfield" policy which requires a minimum density target of 50 residents and jobs combined per hectare. The settlement I area boundary is already defined by the respective Municipal Official Plan. n W C7 a IL _._._ _._ _ _._ Yb IL LLJ �w ' . xa 1 ''tiwa• � d n � C it rn � U IL z � O a w REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 8 The following table summarizes the number of units allocated to intensification within the Built Boundary for each area municipality. The report forecasts 7,330 housing units to be allocated to intensification in the built boundary of Clarington between 2006 and 2031. Table 3 Units Allocated to Intensification in built bounds b Area Munici alitv Units allocated to Proportion of Municipality intensification demand allocated 2006-2031 to intensification Pickering 16,883'- 2015-2031 38% Ajax 8,631 54% Whitby 14,488 43% Oshawa 9,672 45% Clarington 7,330 32% Brock 350 21% Uxbridge 1,157 36% Scugog 660 32% Durham Region 59,121 40% 3.4.2 The Region's consultants identified through a broad-brush survey, 57 hectares of potential intensification areas. Planning Staff, in a meeting with the Region' consultants on August 12, 2008, questioned the appropriateness of a number of the identified parcels of land in Clarington for calculating this amount. Many of the parcels are either within an Environmental Protection area, recently developed, or are in close proximity to incompatible uses. The Region's consultants did not revise the land supply available in Clarington based on staffs comments, neither have they pointed out any new or additional sites for intensification in Clarington. Furthermore, the 57 hectares identified for intensification in Clarington came from the June 3rd report that identified an intensification target for Clarington of 5,300 units. The September 23rd report increases this target by 2,205 units assuming there will be additional lands identified in area municipal Planning Reviews. The land supply remains at 57 hectares which is inaccurate. 3.4.3 The potential for intensification in Clarington does not appear to be justified on the basis of the information provided on available land for intensification. The City of Oshawa which is an Urban Growth Centre under the Provincial Growth Plan, and has large brownlreld areas in and near the downtown is given a target ! of 9,672 units, only slightly higher than Clarington's target. The allocation of I intensification units needs to reflect the opportunities available and the status of each area under the Provincial Growth Plan. 3.4.4 There is also a major concern that the intensification policies for Clarington do not recognize the different identity and character of each of our urban areas. REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 9 3.5 EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS AND LAND NEEDS 3.5.1 The Region has increased the 2031 Regional employment forecast from an initial 350,000 to 375,000 which, according to the Region, more accurately reflects the long- term employment growth potential of the Region. However, this may require Provincial approval since the target for the Region is 350,000 jobs, particularly if it leads to additional urban boundary expansions. Under the Recommended Growth Scenario the consultants project 20,803 additional jobs in Clarington by 2031. The key economic drivers considered for Clarington are the Highway 401 and the Highway 407-401 link, the extension of Darlington OPG Station and the Energy Business Park. The report states that while all Lake Ontario shoreline communities experience employment growth, Pickering retains the highest amount of growth and Clarington enjoys a more significant amount of new employment. 3.52 The different employment categories for the additional jobs in the forecast are broken down as follows: Primary (Agriculture, Aggregates, etc.)............................. 126 Work@ Home............................................................... 1,176 Industrial........................................................................ 8,061 Commercial/Retail ......................................................... 7,560 Institutional .................................................................... 3,081 No fixed Place of Work..................................................... 199 3.5.3 The following table illustrates the forecasts and ratio for employment in Clarington from 2006 to 2031. Table 4: Employment Forecast and Ratio(Clarington, 2006 to 2031 I=IMENNEM—_ 2006 81,366 20,297 1:4 2011 87,902 6,536 22,562 2,265 1:3.9 2016 96,893 15,527 26,858 6,561 1:3.6 2021 107,880 26,514 32,150 11,853 1:3.3 2026 127,161 45,795 37,569 17,272 1:3.4 2031 140,000 58,600 41,100 20,803 1:3.4 Clarington's share in the job growth in Durham between 2006 and 2031 averages 12%. A major concern is the low job to population ratio for Clarington, if compared to other area municipalities in Durham, such as Pickering (averaging 1:2.6), Oshawa (1:1.9) and Whitby (1:2.8). 3.5.4 While the Region wants to obtain a target of 1 job for 2 residents by 2031, the Regional Official Plan should be based on Clarington achieving a minimum of 1 job for 3 residents by 2031. The Region will have to assist Clarington with timely servicing to become a complete community as stated by the Provincial Growth Plan. REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 10 3.5.5 Hemson's comments on the Employment Forecast as follows: • Achieving higher employment densities (sufficient to allow the Region to meet the required Growth Plan density targets) will be an enormous challenge, shared by all upper-tier municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The challenge will be especially difficult in Durham where much of the current and anticipated employment is in large scale low density industrial and utility operations as well as warehousing and distribution type centres. • In general, the Region's reports do not adequately discuss the magnitude of the shift in activity rate and patterns of employment required in Durham in order to meet the 2031 and 2056 employment targets as well as the goals of the Draft. • In terms of the Recommended Growth Scenario (Scenario 3), the current role of Durham in the context of the broader Ontario economy that is increasingly expected (and planned for under the Growth Plan) to grow west and south of the GTAH, is underplayed. While the main drivers of employment growth that have been identified in the reports — the expansion of Highway 407 and the role of the Clarington Energy Business Park are particularly important in Clarington —these drivers by themselves do not support either the forecast scale of employment growth or the forecast shift in pattern of employment across the Region. 3.5.6 As part of the study process, the consultants for the Region held discussions with local municipal officials, the Clarington Board of Trade and local realtors/developers. They concluded that although demand exists for both small scale and larger scale development on employment lands in Clarington, due to the lack of readily available serviced land, `many developers are looking elsewhere for potential locations for development". As a result, any projections for employment in Clarington have to be tempered by the availability of Regional services, in particular sewer and water. 3.5.7 While there is a good supply of employment lands in Clarington, the majority of these lands are not serviced by municipal water or sewer. The Region needs to focus on servicing existing industrial lands rather than continuing to designate more lands. The Recommended Growth Scenario requires significant Regional investment in infrastructure for new employment areas near future Highway 407 while lands close to the new sewage treatment plant in Courtice remain unavailable for development until after 2031. Additional employment lands should be designated in Courtice to take advantage of the new Courtice Water Pollution Control Plant. 3.5.8 To calculate the employment land needs, the total number of jobs to 2031 is divided by the number of jobs per hectare or employment density. For the recommended growth scenario, the consultants used an employment density of 25 employees per net ha (or 10 employees/net acre): Using the methodology, the consultant determined that there was a surplus of employment lands in Clarington and the report does not recommend any increase of employment lands in Clarington. 3.5.9 The proposed 407/401 interchange will take approximately 50 ha of prime employment lands out of the equation, however, as employment lands are key to the future economic growth of the Region and the Municipality, it is necessary to compensate for REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 11 this loss. It is also essential to capitalize on the northern expansion of the sewer trunk, to strengthen the potential of the OPG/Energy Business Park, and the 407/401 link as a strategic employment area for the Region and the Province. This would advance both Regional and Clarington Councils' position to develop an energy cluster based on the Energy Business Park and the Darlington OPG Station, therefore moving forward the implementation of the vision of making Durham Region Ontario's energy capital. 3.5.10 The consultants, analysis does not consider the loss of prestige employment lands along Highway 401 and the Energy Business Park to accommodate the Durham East Link of Highway 407. Due to the reduction in employment lands in Clarington and to capitalize on the infrastructure at the Courtice Water Pollution Control Plant additional employment lands should be designated in Courtice, west of the Durham East Link. 3.6 URBAN STRUCTURE 3.6.1 The consultant has recommended additional Urban Structure elements to strengthen the proposed growth patterns that reinforce existing communities and encourage new healthy and sustainable communities. The elements of the Regional Official Plan structure plan are important to the growth and development of the Region over the next 25 years and beyond. The following are proposed: • Emerging Growth Nodes — places where existing and potential infrastructure can support greater levels of intensification, including: • Future Regional Centres • Transit Villages around GO stations; • Mobility hubs identified by Metrolinx; • Waterfront villages; • UOIT/ Durham College; • Existing and Planned Regional Centres • Growth Corridors along Regional Roads including: • The existing Regional Corridor (along Highway 2) • Future Regional Growth Corridors (Bloor Street) • Local Growth Corridors (Courtice Road, Regional Road 57, King Avenue l and Mill Street) i i REPORT NO.: PSvgEQ8 PAGE 12 . 4 � 7 ! ! | } f ! } ƒ a 9) / ! 2 �_ \ < > oo $ $ j ■ ° a \rlr c ! 7 ! . \ \ z ] i § J , eI nzN . � Im . \ � � e ? ° § f � � \ i f ! | l I| � � \ � ^ \/�� § 2l � ■ ■ ■ . � �`; REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 13 3.6.2 Future Centres The preferred growth scenario shows a designation of "Future Centre" where Courtice Road and Bloor Street intersect. The Future Centre is proposed to be 50 hectares and to integrate transit infrastructure, a variety of housing forms and densities and employment opportunities. Given the significance of Highway 2 as the major Regional transit corridor hosting commercial and residential uses, and its proposed interchange with the 407 link, it would be advisable to consider moving the Future Centre location to Highway 2, immediately east of the Highway 2/407 interchange. It will also support transit oriented development as Highway 2 will accommodate the Region's Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system to Bowmanville. This would also provide for a more logical urban structure by aligning it with all existing urban centres on Highway 2/King Street through the Region. The proposed Future Centre location in Courtice should be moved from Bloor Street at Courtice Road to Highway 2, immediately west of the Highway 21407 interchange. 3.6.3 Waterfront Villages The area of Bowmanville Harbour and the Port of Newcastle are identified as Waterfront Villages. The consultants define these areas as "specific_nodes with commercial and residential uses and complement the existing surrounding communities and the green space network on the waterfront". The Waterfront Villages' density and housing mix is proposed as 60% high density, 20% medium density and 20% low density. The Waterfront Villages are supported but the densities must respect the character of the communities. The housing mix is inappropriate for Newcastle in particular. 3.6.4. Transit Centre/Villages A planned Transit Centre or Village is proposed on the southwest corner of Courtice Road and Baseline Road which is consistent with the proposed Future GO station location in the Official Plan. Transit Centres are defined as higher-density areas in which intensification and transit-supportive development are promoted. A diverse mix of residential and non-residential uses will promote the use and enhance the efficiency of the transit centre. The housing and density mix is 80% high density and 20% low density. The proposed transit centres are fully supported. REPORT NO.: PSDA 15-08 PAGE 14 3.6.5 Existing Regional Corridors King Street is reflected as an "Existing Regional Corridor" throughout the western urban areas but it stops at Courtice Road. The section between Courtice Road and the 407 link interchange should also be designated "Regional Corridor" or "Future Regional Corridor", in view of the fact that it is a key component of the Regional public transit infrastructure; it is lined by numerous non-residential uses and it links up to the 407 eastern link (higher order transit). Furthermore, the "Existing Regional Corridor" designation in Bowmanville on King Street/Highway 2 stops at Lambs Road, but it should be extended up to Bennett Road to be consistent with the Regional Official Plan and to give recognition to the changing character and potential for alternative uses along this section of the road. With regard to why Highway 2 through Clarington is designated as a high order transit corridor, the consultants confirmed that a Regional Corridor has the same characteristics as a high order transit corridor and thus is treated the same. However, we recommend that the map illustrate clearly the Region's commitment for the BRT to Bowmanville. The section of Highway 2 between Courtice Road and the 407 link interchange should be designated "Regional Corridor" or "Future Regional Corridor", in view of the fact that it is a key component of the Regional public transit infrastructure; and that the "Existing Regional Corridor" designation on King Street/Highway 2 should be extended from Lambs Road to Bennett Road to be consistent with the Regional Official Plan. 3.6.6 Local Growth Corridors The Map shows a "Local Growth Corridor" designation on Courtice Road, Martin Road, King Street through Newcastle and Mill Street in Newcastle. The report talks about future corridors that are proposed in future growth areas with the intent to link future centres and support a complete community structure, but it fails to provide a definition for the term "Local Growth Corridor" and it does not reference King Street or Mill Street in Newcastle as "Candidate Areas". These densities are not appropriate for areas along Mill Street in Newcastle which is characterized by a unique historical area that needs to be acknowledged and protected. The "Local Growth Corridor" designation on Mill Street in Newcastle should be removed as this is not an appropriate area for intensification. 3.7 URBAN LANDS BEYOND 2031 TO 2056 3.7.1 The consultants have not prepared a detailed analysis by area municipality to the year 2056, but the total amount of illustrated living area and employment lands in Clarington beyond 2031 totals approximately 2,075 gross hectares and 850 gross hectares respectively. The main reason for including these lands in the analysis is to preserve the lands "for strategic long-term growth to 2056". The planning rationale for this is the REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 15 importance of protecting strategic lands along the 400 series highway for future industrial purposes for infrastructure planning purposes. The future Living Employment Areas that are proposed not only eliminates the urban separators between distinct communities, but takes up some of most valuable agricultural lands remaining in the Region. The Recommended Growth Scenario does not meet this test, however, since all of the lands along 401, between Bowmanville and Newcastle are shown as Living Areas. The assumption that the lands have to be "designated" as Employment Areas along the 400 series highways to be protected for future employment uses is not necessary. The best protection that provides for ultimate flexibility is for the lands to remain designated as Prime Agricultural Area. This ensures that there will be no development on the lands and does not compromise future choices by future Councils. 3.7.2 To protect future strategic employment areas, the Regional Plan should include a policy that in considering future urban expansions, lands along 400 series highways will be reserved for employment land purposes rather than designating lands beyond 2031. 3.7.3 The recent survey of Clarington residents indicated the importance of individual community identity, protecting agricultural lands and environmental concerns. The proposal for Clarington to become one single urban area from Courtice to Newcastle is contrary to public attitudes. Furthermore the Agricultural Advisory Committee of Clarington passed a resolution advising of the importance of the agricultural lands in the urban separators and recommending that there be no further urban boundary expansions. While this needs to be balanced with other societal requirements, staff are concerned at the proposal for the ultimate urban areas shown in the Recommended Growth Scenario. The "whitebelt" lands remaining outside of the Greenbelt should not automatically be considered as urban expansion areas. These are areas where there is local autonomy from Provincial requirements. 3.7.4 The identification of any lands for development in the 2031-2056 period should be totally eliminated. Any period beyond 2031 is difficult to plan for given the many changes that underlay the assumptions of this Plan. This includes the success of intensification areas, immigration policy, economic and societal trends, climate change and energy prices, food security, technology and many other components. The premature indication of urban expansion areas will increase land speculation, poor land stewardship, deterioration of buildings and farm infrastructure. It also creates reduced flexibility for future Councils to respond to the issues of their day. 3.7.5 The Region should be advised that the Municipality wants to maintain viable urban separators incorporating the key agricultural lands between Courtice, Bowmanville and Newcastle over the long term. REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 16 4.0 ADDITIONAL COMMENTS 4.1 Global Economic And Societal Trends The projections in the report are based on very specific mathematical models; due to the nature of these models, issues of sustainability, energy conservation and the changing nature of our communities is not included. It would be important to see how energy prices would impact these traditional projections. In addition, employment projections also do not explain how the Region will be able to reach its employment targets when Ontario has been losing tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs. The Recommended Growth Scenario should have sensitivity testing under various socio- economic and environmental conditions to examine all of the impacts of growth. The Recommended Growth Scenario should be tested under various socio- economic and environmental conditions that may affect regional growth pattern. 4.2 Agriculture and Food Security In addition to the need to understand the environmental impact of the recommended scenario (e.g. natural features, energy conservation, climate change), it is also necessary to analyze the impacts of the proposal of agriculture and food security. The report should be expanded to include how much agricultural land is being removed and the impact on the GTA's food security. This is a major concern in the 2031-2056 period where practically all of the agricultural land in production between Courtice - Bowmanville - Newcastle would disappear. The Clarington Agricultural Committee has passed a resolution on October 9, 2008 requesting the protection of agricultural lands in these areas, of which a copy is enclosed as Attachment 4. This resolution was forwarded to Council on October 27, 2008 and Council resolved that the item be referred to Staff for consideration in preparing comments on the Growth Plan. Any urban boundary expansions at this time should be limited and consider only requirements to 2031. As noted above, the density and intensification targets are aggressive and if achieved should protect a considerable amount of farmland from urban expansion. In addition to not designating any lands required beyond 2031, the Study should expand the report to include how much prime agricultural land is being removed, the loss to the Region's economy and the impact on the GTA's food security. REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 17 4.3 Public Consultation Given the significant implications of the recommended growth scenario on the future of area municipalities, urban structure, growth and policy decisions, the amount of public consultation and education on the part of the Durham of Region has been insufficient. Given the significance of the decisions being made about the growth of the Region, staff believe that the Region should hold public workshops and public meetings in each of the area municipalities within its jurisdiction. Regional Council should be requested to undertake public workshops and public meetings in each of the area municipalities within its jurisdiction prior to selecting the Recommended Growth Scenario. 4.4 Timing of Key Growth Catalysts The Recommended Growth Scenario proposes additional employment and living areas to accommodate growth along the 407 expansion and along the links between the 407 and 401 highways. It also assumes that the Pickering Airport will be built and generate significant employment and residential growth. This focus on the 407 expansion assumes that the expansion will take place within the proposed timeframe. Any delays in the proposed timeframe for the expansion of the 407 and the links to the 401 would translate into major shifts in the supply/demand of both residential and employment lands. The Recommended Growth Scenario is highly dependent.on Provincial or Federal infrastructure investment. The 5 year review of the Regional Official Plan will be even more important in case the 407 or any other key growth catalyst are delayed or the Greenbelt Boundary has been revised. 4.5 Expanded Scope To date the development of the growth scenarios has been based on only land use needs based on the population and employment targets as set out in the Provincial Growth Plan. There is a need to undertake an analysis not only of the hard infrastructure — sewer, water, roads — but also of the "soft" infrastructure — hospital services, social services and police and emergency services — required to support the expected number of people and jobs in Durham. This hard and soft infrastructure analysis also needs to be accompanied by a clear understanding of the costs and financing to support the expected growth to 2031. The Region has accepted a proposal by staff to undertake this analysis. The process would take at least two years, putting the Region and the municipalities in an unsatisfactory position of adopting Official Plan Amendments that rely solely on land use designations without the infrastructure and financial analysis needed in order to comply with the Provincial deadline. Regional Council should be encouraged to undertake a fiscal impact analysis at a high level (including the social and community infrastructure requirements) prior to adopting the recommended growth scenario. X m M O z a O w 100 1� 0 o o a�� O C- N a n B TT-fU o co CL CD CID ss CD n m r r d m a a a c°n °w n a A o o °> ° 0 N .. 0 (� N N N N N W p 0, O _ Pro ?r,.:ar,(D' CD CID 0 3 �};13 1 @ � Mole 'c.;� �. _ CL I's Map la fD fD W CD Q 3 O. N O \ r i _ Q Regional Ro d57 I� CD fr�oy l,l �. O r , Dc3 m fL CD -1 f j 0 � 0 m Q Q.� I o � O CL (D n I Re ional RWd Q] O y O O (D � 0 Y... 2) N l liwa 7Y 115 Z ' _.� n T-- - - m O —, m co REPORT NO.: PSD-115-08 PAGE 19 5.0 CONCLUSION It is respectfully recommended that Council adopt the recommendations of this report as the Municipality's position on the Draft Recommended Growth Scenario Report: Attachment 1 — Staff Preliminary Comments on Durham Region Scenario Evaluation — July 2008 Attachment 2 — Staff Preliminary Comments on Proposed Regional Consultants' Policy Recommendations: Regional Official Plan Attachment 3 — Hemson Consulting Limited memorandum — October 15, 2008 Attachment 4 — Resolution from Agricultural Advisory Committee of Clarington — Oct. 9, 2008 Interested parties to be advised of Council's decision: Linda Gasser Luigi D. Mastroianni Tribute Communities Tom Van Camp Agricultural Advisory Committee of Clarington Delta Urban Inc. Andrew Marit D.G. Biddle &Associates Ltd. Sernas Associates Phip Limited Libby and Stan Racansky Kirkup Realty Corporation Attachment 1 To Report PSD-115-08 ceaarax me way July 23, 2008 Nestor Chornobay Planning Department The Regional Municipality of Durham 605 Rossland Road East, 4th Floor P.O. Box 623 Whitby, ON L1N 6A3 Dear Sir: RE: CLARINGTON PLANNING STAFF PRELIMINARY COMMENTS ON THE DURHAM REGION'S SCENARIO EVALUATION AND RECOMMENDED PREFERRED GROWTH SCENARIO WORKING PAPER FILE NO.: PLN 1.1.12 The following paragraphs contain Clarington Planning staff preliminary comments on the Region's Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario Working Paper. Please note that these comments are not in any specific order of priority. 1. Global and economic and societal trends The projections in the report are based on very specific mathematical models; due to the nature of these models, issues of sustainability and energy conservation and its impact on our future communities have not been considered. It would be important for the paper to reflect on climate change and energy prices and its impact on the traditional growth projections. In addition, employment projections also do not explain how the Region will be able to reach its employment targets when Ontario has been losing thousands of manufacturing jobs. It would be important to consider the environmental impact of the different scenarios, such as one designed to minimize climate change and GHG emissions? The preferred scenario should be tested under these global socio-economic and environmental trends. 2. Servicing of Employment Lands and phasing of development With regard to the acknowledgement of the major short fall of serviced industrial lands (Appendices M2 & M3) and the Region's introduction of Development Charges on non- residential lands, Planning Staff welcomes this step as well as the proposal for cost sharing with non-residential developers to extent bulk services to their properties. However, the Region's Growth Plan Implementation policies need to emphasize the phasing of development. It is important that land use policies regarding sequential growth and investment in infrastructure focus on currently designated lands first. Phasing policies in the Regional Plan should allow flexibility to the local municipalities to formulate a development plan that matches infrastructure and financial capacity as well as local strategic objectives like servicing the Energy and Science & Technology Parks in Clarington before new employment areas are released for development. 3. Protecting employment lands against conversion With regard to the paragraph in Appendix M8, Planning staff welcome the firm stance in the report regarding the conversion of employment lands and hope that this will culminate in a more specific Regional Official Plan policy. Any such policy should be sufficiently flexible to permit the development of unique niches and clusters of multi-use employment districts and to reduce distances between places of work and residence. 4. Proposed expansion at OPG Darlington The Chapter on the preferred Growth Scenario (p.60) does not recognize the potential impact of the expansion of the Darlington Nuclear Plant. It will potentially create close to 3500 construction jobs for at least six years and 900 permanent jobs per reactor, it is a major economic driver with significant implications in terms of housing, infrastructure and soft service needs. One of the key initiatives outlined in PIR's Planning for Employment Paper is to designate Provincially Strategic Employment Areas. As the Durham Region strengthens its role as the Energy Capital of Ontario, the potential synergy created from the expansion of Darlington, the adjacent Energy Park, and future employment lands along the 407-401 link make this particular area a prime candidate for the Provincial designation as a Strategic Employment Area. 5. Illustrated lands beyond Urban Area Boundary (East Courtice), Figure 1313: • Land use designations adjacent to proposed 401/407 link: The recommended growth scenario proposes additional employment and/or living areas to accommodate growth along the 407 expansion, along the links between the 407 and 401 highways and west of Bowmanville. This exclusive focus on the 407 expansion assumes that the expansion will take place within the proposed timeframe. Any delays in the proposed timeframe for the expansion of the 407 and the links to the 401 would translate into major shifts in the supply/demand of both residential and employment lands, and will disrupt infrastructure planning and long-term capital projects both at the regional and municipal levels. Although Staff support looking at the year 2056 to understand the long term implications of Regional growth and infrastructure, it would be advisable for the scenario maps to exclude lands that may be required beyond 2031 to 2056. The preferred scenario calculations and maps should only reflect the consultants' recommendations for the lands needed to 2031 as directed by Places to Grow. The employment lands along the 407-401 link east of Courtice, and the link itself, should be illustrated in a special way (color, type of line) to ensure that the reader is not confused with employment lands that are already designated and those that may be designated in the future for strategic purposes. Alternatively, any lands that need to be protected beyond 2031 should only be shown on a different map for illustration purposes only. Our preference would be to have the strategic protection of lands accomplished through policy or by designating special policy areas to be considered in the future as part of local Official Plan policy. The Region may want to consider the approach of the Regional Transportation Plan by Metrolinx where different maps represent different time periods. Furthermore, we question the planning rationale behind the location and extent of the proposed future living areas and employment lands along the proposed 401/407 link, in particular the residential lands east of the link.. For example, is it appropriate to sandwich a future living area south of Bloor Street between the future industrial strip along the 401/407 link and the existing designated employment lands in south Courtice? It may be more appropriate to: • plan for a more contiguous development pattern by earmarking all the lands between the existing Courtice Urban boundary and the proposed 401/407 link as "Future Living area"; • to remove the Living Area designation east of the 401/407 link to preserve the urban separator between Courtice and Bowmanville, as the preservation of the urban separators is one of the key objectives of our community; • and to consider slightly enlarging the future employment lands strip to the east of the 401/407 link to compensate for the loss of it on the west side and to create parcels of employment lands big enough to reflect economic development trends for larger parcels. • Proposed future centre: No rationale has been provided for the proposed location of the Future Regional Centre at the intersection of Rundle and Bloor Streets. Given the fact that Highway 2/King Street is a major public transit route and catalyst for most of the major retail commercial nodes, it may be more appropriate, from an economic and urban structure perspective, to recognize and further strengthen the significance of Highway 2 or to locate the "future centre" close to the proposed future GO station in south Courtice, in combination with the transit proposal for the 407 link. The above mentioned concerns reflect our Council's resolution on September 5, 2006 (regarding Amendment 114 to the Regional Official Plan) in which the Region was requested to postpone any decision on Future Growth Areas, either by Supplemental Attachment 2 or new policies on Future Growth Areas until the implementation and conformity exercise on the Growth Plan in order to allow the Region and area municipalities the opportunity to assess the impacts of the Growth Plan on land requirements, urban form and the opportunities for creating transit supportive complete communities. Clarington has not been granted sufficient opportunity to, in collaboration with the Region, assess the impacts of the recommended growth scenario on land requirements, urban form and in terms of opportunities for creating transit supportive complete communities, particularly with regard to the lands immediately east of Courtice. 6. Land Supply Available for Intensification within the Built-Up Area of Clarington Planning Staff reviewed the consultants' analysis and specific locations information on lands in Clarington that have been identified for potential intensification. i Many of the proposed sites that have been identified for potential intensification are viable commercial buildings/plazas. Without the proper financial incentives and infrastructure investment, intensification, if any, will likely not take place on these sites. Examples of such sites are the Home Depot that recently opened its doors and Rona, which is currently under construction. By including these sites, the intensification target for Clarington becomes unrealistic. Furthermore, the consultants demarcated sites adjacent to the alternative future GO station site near the 401/Waverley interchange, which does not follow Council policy. Regional and Clarington Council policy is to locate the GO Station immediately south and adjacent to the Bowmanville West Town Centre, Metrolinx's Plan also shows the location of the GO station in Bowmanville to be adjacent to the West Town Centre. The majority of the sites around the 401/Waverley interchange are not suitable for residential development: they comprise an existing community park and sports complex, an auto sales cluster, environmental protection lands and industrial lands. Residential uses in close proximity to the 401 corridor and St. Marys Cement is not a desirable scenario. Given this information, the amounts calculated for potential intensification in Clarington would be a misrepresentation of land availability with subsequent miscalculation of future land needs too. It would be advisable to rather replace this broad-brush approach and/or to further refine it via detailed research and identification through our local municipal Official Plan Review process. The Region's preferred scenario establishes intensification targets by municipality even though the Growth Plan only measures this target at the Regional level. Staff met with BILD representatives and share their concern that intensification requires extensive public education and awareness, as well as incentives. Intensification will also require an active role being played by the Region to meet the expected targets. The report does not speak to these factors, yet the implementation of the plans will depend upon it. 7. Expanded Scope So far, the development of the growth scenarios has been based only on land use needs in accordance with the population and employment targets as set out in the Growth Plan. There is a need to undertake an analysis, not only of the hard infrastructure—sewer, water, roads-, but also of the "soft" infrastructure — hospital services, social services and police protection- required to support the expected number of people and jobs in Durham. Although the Region has accepted a proposal by staff to undertake this analysis, the process will take at least two years. The disparity in timing between land use, infrastructure, and fiscal analysis puts the Region and the local municipalities in the unsatisfactory position of adopting Official Plan amendments just to comply with the Provincial deadline without a thorough understanding of fiscal and hard/soft infrastructure implications. Planning Staff recommend that the Region engage the local municipal politicians and staff to allow local Councils to have a say in future urban boundary expansion and land use designations through their respective Official Plan Reviews currently underway. By doing so, the Regional Official Plan will either reflect the local councils' direction for their communities, or provide a framework for the details to be determined at a local level. N c0 O i n{ C N m N J N N E � m c (Ear 3 � .m E .4 � mac ° ° o_� > 3 2) a) m m a) m O O ,y a s Q i N C T N C N w Y L - 'C > > 0 If Q I`II a) a1 a) t y O C N T 0 O N N �N a r0 N «�{ C � i��j E mv°_ n � � aa)) -° E c .m v � 2 m m o o C N L1J 3 . E O N 'o l0 _ Cl V O +' ._ G1 j -O N y m �- U c .L+ U) N L FO- £ i fik aj o o f C .° w c m N c0 c �i `li duo o ., ymm cm c nE -CU o0 O o 11 o ° m� cU m >(D ( P .m m'm Q: d m .°°3 3 � ° o dO m6n ° ac:C .T - u to Ica � � 02m E ° Emm � m � > o c3am d d ° c 0 ° c t a m � 0 m Q m > E E m ' rn_ a) 0 c xym c E cr `0 a; -0 rn > S QdY C L I C N -0 0 m - {fl a) 0 W .- C 111�_ Wpm vm ccEr ° ° U) c ' ° ° `� c m 'm m m � .0 v (U .-1O O ✓ m a) C ,c O 0 'm0 N O a) m 0 3 o c d c -� "_' °-= -O 2 m m d - tm yo ° , w — Oo ° o) 3 d rmE(a CL w , Un � irE 'a CC Mn � cm � � �? ` � c .+ r)�� ) m c ° a) a) 0 W O Cw c o — �° , m m c m C) oma dwm mm aca—) a) m3va ov � � ° a1' acc oma) LmEm ° Elmo oam) � m m _ 3 " a N N ca L Cn (d Kira V) y.-O O .� .m ° m 0 ,5'O 5 (� 0 m CO m ° m 'D 'O •O U Yit� !I 7.A C .N Cl n 0 9 > m X X ? O $. O m C _ m O 0 C J w U 111 � Ea cE MD -a a) > � n mmdom !`I d r `n C a) a) o O1 m 0 __ E Z .2_ E O) w c I '-' m )° E _� m ° E 3 E 0w Co o mmN som � aQaa)) 3 � a) � ami3 `� > > o_ > d �,i;. U) > aa)) Q ° o OE2O -� .E 1 owr FL- -°° -�° m-°° a) a) in m ° E a) ¢ m R N a > .O O ,',: o C O a a) y. �i m N > l0 O O E (D c m r a) rn F- o m h o 0 m d E t'� O ° v ()it N 3 ° c m N T E N 0 O C U O Ni, w 0M .° Uo _ 0 O c cU o 3 O t? F m ? m m U w o 0 w a d a K J 2 E C N U C P G 'O d a) 'w 0 O O (I L) R ill 0) o d (i� OJ N N N 'O w C a) EL a) N L ° a w0 w ¢ a a i�I6I' M } N � � I��IIIIII 11111 = E CL cu E p hr),}, O N U U ° o _ m ) d u R d N 3 N L N • Iyil� y c a CL �� m 0 w a r > a d C 0 c L 0' `o) m n v U r- 0 I E m c m O d N (D d • O L D7 � � ct a) (D r o d mm ma ao as 0 o > o- m ° Y J n O2 O N C L E a m m m n a m o Q a) E O O ,= w O C m ... N.p0 = y N E O rn.� E .c N o = - a) c 0 0i m m N E o n A 1 `o m °� m c m c 0- E p - ca _ 3 c V o 00 _T oN mT m � N � rn oN aa)) Ea mEc ao t o f N o o - a � E a) E R w J m d > y E N E o a) .d N a) m 0 O O N d 'E tm c 3 ii _ Eny a ° nU 7 -E mo m a) p ca o m E c m 0 0 _ M a) 'a N E ' ( N v v n hod of c LE 9c (D 3m 'X � o J .0 m J a) C E U O .L a U N a 0) al N N N 0 d J O C V) m F tl) m U CAN .T. O = C a a) a) = ' d +' E m n'a E m c c 3 rn. c 0 0 0 = m m _ - c o c m c0 '- E m aai m % E a) (a C C m U J a) T N O J C `p) n n a) h y. �i a .- O N a - O N 0) E 3 `m CL `o E c � c `m ` c0a m o0 N O O T�- m 3i O c c - a7 C T U N al z of i � ._ J o w 0 T c m � o s . _ p c fl- N m w N .E N .N L U a 0 2 E �.= d M U II �i u a m w 3 > N J o f ui L m o c'o o '" m ° L '� m w N m N a) �" n 0. ..+ �, N n U m J N d N n N Y 0 E m E 0 . . 0 a 'a a) > 0) c m m m 0) N; .2 0 m ° o N N 3 cp) ym OJ 0 -0 :n 000 = w Jin Jo C 4 �� a: -• rn C � m .oaE unia�iE = mX t � E c0i3 UO c0im cJm � : 0) 0 0o ID �a o � o0m0 co c � cE d' ! 0. O ma3 0y .= o roc om0 CL .2 aoEco u! m wn w0 y c) o Eacio o2 JEm o � C� Qm � Q � 0 0 0 0 0 0 w a ii ��( N i S � d E U I � R CO) i R C T CL m R FL R 0 Ez O �a t O m ca -j o o J m Co ._ C U m y� CA O` m V E d OL O_ O C CL m C "O O _ E c v CD L) c E O a U m N 3 m v 'E m E vi a oa d > 3 V N O C to ° a) Q' E d 6 o cL cu c m m 2 O H O O O v o aEN ° O N O O C :E O .L-. a. 0 m 3 .�° y co maw - o m ' m ul (J C U p m m 0 a N N C C a w a) l6 V iN C 3 s QwO__ E a 'N� L 3 a)O y O U E O O a) O oN ` o° L n > ° dN m E m 'Dm E d p .5 c c O_ a a m N rn mcvo C ` E N E m e d - O m c O O cO ° ° E a d o -o d °1 a mL E E .� m m '° O N CD 0 CA 0' Ua iq � O mm caoM0 N c o y ¢ o ° a o N m 0 4) ' 0 0 w W YE � c m dQ owaaN wEo � w X > cwN rnaw0 d != w m Y w T C w a w T °� O m CA a w w o C 0 ' >' N E O C NcoL .S N -6a Qw °-m m '? m w E � EY x ma P ' 2 � 0 w o u w 0 _ i Q p >(U 0 L _ Y T L N C C ° 3 ° ° m � o c ° 3p CU w o .c � Co w E > v a 0 w 3 = > ° o C r w � _m ay o Q E m N w ma CL- Mn � wNN °` L oE � Ea>iCU U 'E, 0 - X y +4 . 30U) ErQ� = E9 L7NN 3 :_ E 00 �6E m : ° m0 = wcwiucioN `o v Q i I c -5 c Co d '-T' c m Y m a,� c o a).- d C Co L c w m c > ° m 0 p 30 ,N a C7 E ca E w > m o � � cL' Ea� °— 5mwaa)iLia a 0 0 Q N a � am) n am) 0w0E OOaEaTL T . ^N--1 S .N. C f`a o'N 'w' N a) cp.� Y E o c t�0 o0,m 3 -N 0Un QY Q'a� a�io � C7 � a _ ( ( � `0 N O cma )owm0aa w � 3y0a) t � j w w Q Y w m > N N w > O_ N V V hi�Yl a C w ° L w N p O) L p 0 c O w C D) U �, 0)= N Q aN+ N -o N C w (a O _ ° w c ° a) a � t d T 3 .L.. OmNam c N 0ao p) Cm •d C o �i�,) 1,i, ¢p l Q w O] Q w Cn L E � 0m2mw C j w m w C 0 m e m 0 . (Dw � 0w oL w d0 a) Q N M O J> w _ E �F- LmEomo0 Q3E o m �lll N Nd au) o � 0: ma NC 0 m U d L, _ c m m m = o Q m 0 c p) N c a t a c 0 a) c U) k+`III Y c m � E m = '� 0 mN N y O M -0 C o p N 3 N a Q a ll lI d = 0 w m o `o y c m + I� 0V Q a E cE ° c v ° m w m —O oa 2 . _ 0 � L G1 ii N C W a "� C � mL -i w L m a O d „w„ N m 0 m N a) Z Mn m C v v N 0 3 m a; � a) c F O c m m w 'upa G1 () 3 y C E L O j N m p m L N E w .w- O d -0 m — C d O a m p ( � E d0) .Q o0m Q m CL u .g � � 0 c m d c a � N m .0 c E mL.. 5 .2 E 'o L N 0 E o = 0 mCU co a ? E 3Q aRQ � ET U � E $ O T o C "O U a 0 U CC) m 0) ° p C m w w a L a c ° 0 � N � Q o m a o 0 c V Ta g m w N w E a) c mL d w .� .S rn 'wo '> i m 0 M - m T 3 0I L O ado E a)E � �° ° c0ac > Em oac O N III -+ L � rri LD - � Em ao QE :: d. a c m > .� we N am c Y . of j� U J .N a m E E m '� a) o O m $ c m > E �) U � L. w 0 N W a 0 c w 0 w Y a a �r wa= � c • • • � L6 i Co ° w - w C w N C p N O C O L 0 O C b C C M ° o E o a ° " C N .N N E ° n d E -_p° ` ° c U) £ £ av a) =mo E o O O E ° m N N n U -p U r m > ° m e o mN c > O.- N O O m CL to tv a) 0 CL O t � -o N C N E N C N m N N E � ° O p N c _ N (D 3 p C � � , c IL 'N O N J m C 'E C m (n ._ �i O O - N m C c U N N a) N o m C m IL n0) m � 'O CAL _)( N m C n m Q a) C a m c O > C C C Y m M a) V O ° - C lG _ Co)a d m t O > > p -`o EL m a .i 3 U J N 3 m U M w C l6 U C '- ... Y p m U Q m 0 0 " -a+. a) C N r O m N U N a) aj O N m O n o '6 w w mw p c m o m N > O C l0 ma a) E ' c C a) a) E a) d m CL aa)) a) c'i a) t j 01 d O a) d N E d d a) rn Y _U � m m m L m L _C m `� O m N N m Q Q �" Q Q Q F N n C LL U - m Q m C .m.. c 'O O 'O O ca N c C m m Cl) m L m O) C ... .5 O w N O C O p O N C L N a) Q y m E o_ ° ac o o. � ac E - me ) a l6 y CL 'rn a) o E 'x � c m ° CC - N ra -o c o > w o a) N O aa)) 0 c $ mm 'c o n Y � � o (V 'a+ c m - c o'o E c Ed EX � i = c >. Y E -D: d' E m > ° N E 0 m _v V as aom of0c m N �caNi mN `) v d mX c �o. Ec ° ''' m '' O c p c ' c d o m a c d N c —° .3 'm-p w p ° va -0 E C ap m m � vm mE 0 mo > > ON omN m 'oc ° E mE no ` U 2 3 � o QUO mecca t� � ° N ° aa)) c E C N C m 0., 0 N 0) L c C a)CD C N p 2 t '2 H O t M �i L O U :.. O. m Y E ° N s >. a) m o 0 0 N m U la CD 2 di ._ ... p N U C a) E O N m a) Q X $ � a ° o m n!0. •O a E o N o Ea) o o E w C n w m p E .2 a) m � d 0 0 0 0 0 0 X 0 0 0 Q a) U I� III 'i co 'd dLm � a c N i c > U ' m j > c O O � O E a.. v 3 ti! O C N N T.0 C a7C a) t U o E o m o m E w O C (��it= a) - = m x m a) '• o, > M y .«, a) m m d .0 LN m 0 m E ="�'? m a a > a) E _��°�) a g E ` N ° 'o O O Era oo ,� o � a Y m a) �? 9 c o C) m a y or o t�6 (III I{ g .22 M o E m E c ca E o_ mo o n e �' m ) m ca) Eom ma0 -mo E E ° ° o -°O w v M a) C I a) m M C .. O la C O M L L c m U m > > O i o m m0 T C - C N d ifi' > a) m m g a) 0 0 a a) c a U O E a) .m m C C ' a) M m > a T Fa U a E N > O L O > a) C a °- i m . a a) O c a) O E m = u 0 a 3 a m m C a) U c a o o m m m c (a ° > m C Y N c m N- 3 a) v 0 w a C or m d 3 E m c a O 4.... m r T a C a _ N U ai a) m > _ C O N Y rnao E oFD m am 0 3 00 O N O m >. U m 'V E m 3 O a) o a) m _` > O m Q) om -o U) w � E `o H2 Z Q m w N aa) mo a� mLmate) ate) c° ac ctsE m . m C ;=q.. m mrn � � E � om .� mE Ea ' °� o o 3 m o m a T m m m c m y •y (�j as d 'oQ QC N j o.{a No N m c = -a aa)i m� O) m o N U LL w m i°n 'm0 0 .0 m0 > o � � y oNmm ° fir la �Im m > a N x..;.. O a a N C t. J O) U_ m m +- O O LO N d '�.; a n � ra co ooc mL 3 0) aa)iN ? a > v N c E o o g c a ts c c .g 3 m o m E = i) T O m m0 E � 'rn E N a) 0M a) -a voTamoom mm om Tm . E - m � m amocam a�, m a) m o 0 3 a v' y E o a E Y m N m o c o m o c O " a a) O m c a) L o m c °- m a rn c 'o) m a g a) a H m c ''�� aEi o m m L aai m d 'm o nac m u m 3 m o N L.+ a "O a) 3 a) O 0 ' N a C 3 I��i O a) c N 2 > O N U 2 C U O m m -o E ` 6 U) ami m c w a ° � � a 'a) o m �F m �o ° E m N C ili o > 03 mom M -o � � aai ` a = w C U a a) m a) a a a) c j U d m a) o V ;fl� R O '.L-. C ` C N c 7 c a �a c U U a) E fL/) 'O C 'L" O m _ C iti. T m 0 E m m N m .0 o c > fa (6 o m m >` m 0 ld O r U 0) C � T >." mEC Om VD. wmi aad UC (ON C d 7 ° � Eac a ; m E my cm mw mpOOw � � LmO W Lo ° m U O ° - a) O a) " w o ° E a) a > om ° c � ya M � aa naa) m O U m y W L F a) a) J E .0 d d N C W a) a d w o m CL L ,11� i) ° a) C1 T N U -0 O L m a) p m O .0 m O. .a) O O _ N j 0 C N m I O F- N E T.0 ° N N a 0 > O) U - C n O O N m E L an d m 0 E ° m ° = d a) o ° Ua E aa)) a) m C ZU c E G N r >` 0 O) > .m. 0 O 0 0 N y C C N >� @ - '� m N a) a v O 9 m p ama) m 0L E � E N m (Dm O c � L, a 0 c 0 m a3a w — N00 rno' vo w m N N E L u .N o_a > a N d a) 0 .0 N T !U a N a N N O) fA > N C ° d U 0 m a E m ... N L m C C y T m CL N a) Co m o C ` E 0 o .2 a 0 t o d 3 E m d _E0 � � a) 3 ca a � od > o n 7ai Naa) om d E E v°12c°iL m Q m 3 0 >i L L T N N c oui m c co 01 F �° N3 o w° c �� w ` ` 0 a rn m m m E t0 a) a.ca U O > C O U L da 0 N mN ° m 1N O . ° m —E U C U a 0 m N m m° U° > O U .L.. Q N N f0 -0 d N C N m °- IO O 0) T m E Q) C L T N C N 4) C C c m T U 0 ' m f0 N C a) E :_ 0 0).9 m E m c CL ca ° E E me Z c a) Nc E am �° .Z •� m 0 0 0 a) O a) m C O - 0 0 a) C a) d Uc0 �' <aN C7w Z = U0 Qawm0 L �. � 000 0rn00N0 0a 0aoo 0o as a) om y � m cc m 5 cm-0 d 0) c m m . a c m m m y ° N Q ° N 0 L U O T O N 'X N > N !� 3 Cc m Q U 0 C C E O j a Q Y ui m n m a._ 0 m m o.� o — 0 L) —° � v; � ',°-� , E a) n E m N N0E 3v aa)) E3c m0 Nov oaci � > a � L d ° 00 ac C C > a1 N .d .0 W N m 9 c N a O_ ° a) .6 C > - O a) E aci m a = c M .0 o O C -0] C N w ° -O U 0 N y c O C a) m C C L T 0 'a G LO j m 0 = a) J '00 = 0 c m °-a a) C N L 0 ° m y C N N O 00 aNO E mo ° ccN °_ m a) 0) o a3a u d d a) a°i m@ o ° d m m c E 0 m m E = m o o a ) ° mm a) ma E L 0 - o w m o d E m = m Too�• oj.ino � o_ U OT ° aa)i °-` AEU aa)) � 0 MN 3 'wm -0aN oc 0Eorn ° a cw m ° m >. O Co .- °' E V0) o_° a o. o E .c m .0 a) a m rn o 5 aa)i EL °- 1.1 C1 Q) N E a) 0 .6 E m m d Q N N L U O N -0 C a) C N 0 3 O — d Nd0 w a) LU 0 a) cu cu a) m ° —°a aid O d' ' m c°) rn.� a m c c a) 0) m a) o o N E N E'C E —O o 4 L 3 0 O m O C L 0. V C N o a L cY -a ° Disc ° :° c �'a) a) NE ° c � � ° 'oa aoi i. `o `-) c { O :o O a N O O w a) '� m � o a a1 m m a) c N U 0 m N a ° Fu N N O m c p 10 .rn 0 0 E ca E Co c N N o U N vi N C a E N 3 C c .0 'O U N � w N o �` a O a) n d a N .� N O C c O c m N a) 'Z E � > H p m e a) y o) E c w o o .0 0 .2 L o y d m m C U Eac aci °o. d .0 me d m d E01:° a dN TZ.c NoNm V [6 CN TM O00C0 a) a E3 >, 0a -o 00 L) � c -o � mm crnoo 0 0 .;; m a a o � °_) 3 'o m ._, d o m 'v c m e >.— O 3 a) C a) ° m aN) a m L m 0 a m L N L 3 O c) C C O O m0 O C a) C Q L L O) C N N E N C O •-•.o) �' 0 E o 0) rn ° 'm O.'L• N N N m .� E� N m N la p m 0 W rn � mU Et d a) m m _ E .. L �c M -- F- c E a) o o p 'jy C — N y O O O N o ° ._0 ` NE Q3 a) Od o F 'wwcc f DE ® m 0> & ! ( 37 _ w / /) kma) c a � � - - � � \ /\ a 2 -ME \ ( / }/ f . [ § 4)0 _ _ }] CLM . J u / ! « ) \ f ) : \ / _ ! 2 ; £ 0 {_ , > ( ) * � f ® o # , ( } 2 f _ 22 [ 220 M 0)- jw °_ 0t , } \ \ k » � _ 0 � � \j \ IL m _ & \ & 2Z 2 \k � i /§ �� - \ \-a§ . 4) a) e / \ WC \ / \ � � � \ E � �� 2 . o { § A \ {} a _cD ) \ | ) \) \ � ) \ f c -0 9 Z af § � f \k % � 2 �± © E0 # Jk » / R * I ) « 2a b ( § ! [Z \ k } { \ / ) § - 2 {\ _ - ` \ {k ( E k » a # ° /CD) [ - £ - / 2 \ _ /) § 2 ) 0 ED k � � w ] � � , E 0 2 _ ) \ ) Z ) / f \ [ / \ - _ � 2a % 2 k}) _ ) \ k /{) ( ± - ' / ; \ 0 a ƒ : 2 � / \ / /\ \ / ) ) ) / 0 C m m -O O O O O ya0m 3amaa) cam m CL O) co = o CU -off my a Ea) d m U E = T N m O N L C — m m o Lac a c a o a) a m c 'O a) `o an c � N m a m o (' E. c la a) m — O) N a) N C rL- L L c i m M N O E -U a) rn m `m Z o awi 0 d m 'm a) < (< wm � ,c � a) Un 0Nt a) 2 'mow : d -o 'm 'O- a; in 0 rnY g n m m o) > a 4) . a) m 0 a o N ai O = m uw m � mu � m = U N L y a) w 7 ° NN . o ai E �am — (D m > o a N 2 im m c g c m E o cm . 3 �'ttli�I a) a) N y o m N m Z E a) .L.. N ' .L-. ' r O N ��EI�`�. c o o uNi c N E a+ a>) c m C mo ' m oa) m3 'E mmo � ° £ i ) X � aiov mEa' mt v'iom o0 ooc Ills a a ❑ U E EL m E a a 0) ` l -5 co md .- U .c � mN c cc L � wNmo � � N ° 3 cc , o mmLi ma = Q n m a p a y w o 0_ C '� til > 0E- � > — mom a) mE E � mmc ma cN � m� N� a a` � � y c �° m m � mm = $ - w tc a) ao > L dda) m mUr °i c c Omcom > = `mm3 a � E .9 Edn'c p m Uam a .U � Taa Noco od u = gym am E ._ a) d rnm m L m .? c � E E E E O O U U w � R R N R .N E � CL N a c w. co 0) a 5 L R R m O 0 _ T R m C a O c 4 tm d Q ° E '° c a) N � m -5 2 O d y r c E � O T Co R N E 0) w O oa) mc � C ° ..L.. lD N > .0 d W w C N F L c f0.1 a� c3 ccm� a7 � � 4) ° IL). 0 - m 0 CD CD ° 2 � E2 (D E ;^ ° C ° yf R mcmE ° ° E 3 0 -oym � c1m c U m ° m m w O R y � g �ayoo U 00 4 d o mod R m o m o a 3 0 0 y (n .0 a5 a) U '� •• L O. ?. N N N d ca C 4 V N@ ° N a) d F F Q _0 IIIIil�ll' �Iliipll! 1,11191 E v Pl�ll v � R ((Qli All EL c It1111 R � ° 'dill a ¢ a a a cm m ommm a..5 m CD cu Q 0 cm lE C N w J = c N r C m ._ m m Fu � 3 m m a (I��l�� m U oO m w (D � L. 3 d �+ �. 1 U 0- .� m t i O O L h��h ° m C a W cm d ! 1111! cm0 am ma`) t ° N0E N m m CC O N N m J..i L m m d G `(( i� � N m � m � C N a C m O d O r i �. p II)�'�: .3 c 3 .an 3 y n Y m ' .02 V m c ° row r � � � c a` c0 E L ('„ r c L o N a 0 o m c 0_U w c o IL � al m c Nw a E > > aN m t y !a r. m rn a iii n CL 3 (�� c ° a amacim ami a) 4' .T 0 0 o y -e C llf l i > a) 3 m E m may ¢ � vd m Z 0 E E c O N N C N a) m O O E CU `ifl : F a0i ; mc ° E y '� m0 am -ao v°1i c n E ° od h v c m cL N c E o C) 0 Cu �fll� a i o U m d w 3 m � u m E m a o o L a � U tt a wNd cw a) Nm 0mi3 aa)) � O > m N d2 p I�� ( r � mZ oa � 00 � o ° � � E ° m 2 a d Y Lm C 'pl v o m i c m 'o)E o m m m io c o m rnw l o a m 0 � N o ma) y m °_ Qa 3w ¢ s x .s IL U O m C N O 3 0 �1� U m = ) C O ) m m U m N N O O O O O O O O t li CL a) a) m m O d a) c t j 'j a) �l w a � Yo am c `0_ mc2 FN � a �I a ) w oi II m — c a 0 Y � III1��1{11 � ° dIIIl�iiill a) Ca o w Y L V a) O `n O C d 0 AD 0 c 75 T ° 0 O o C 00 ° N L) :a) U . Q C 3 It O �a O m N O �(Ih V N 0- E 0 Q m o w m a) a) a) m o n °- a) d a) d d o d l F Q Q m Q 'o Q Q Q Z LL Q Q fll l N y >i U N N c Co m �I m d m ° m p :o g m m N J m Co lii c � c o w CD -0 _ d O 'Y1 !. o f c �o m m y m a a a+ ^�� rnw 0 (DC N m 3c do ii(I�_1 °� a m ° a m c r c Z V y c O o c '° a) c w .- a m w a c 'o m ,c c Cu m m M Co ac v o E N > > U �. 0 119 1 wr m L o a)) _ m ¢ ° a 3 a) 16 ° 0 L la Lm L o d d > o 0 3 w rn o �_ d 0 m .� 3 S >; m rn-0 m o IL O II II( w m cc aw E c m > ° m w a O m O m "• a) > a wo Ym o � d o E E ° m >_ L 'gin a _° > N 3 N c m L, w N C E m -0 m a LL CL Cu v -o m rn.5 w mD ow t m d d m m o L ° c U G wL, m e �- Lam, — .� r U C D (D Co m a C a) C c W N ° O a) a C p� V m Nc a � c� � � cE cmd c ° O c N O t E ur m 'm > o n 0 > oT > > Z- E c °� y Cx w ° m v E v 2 LUoV5'jW ac c w E 3 Q .S U L Q m Q in 0 m Q E ° � E m u m m c L L _ 0 0 0 0 0 0' LL m Cu cmi QE 72 w .59 a 0 > m m N m N O a) 0 = c N O ° > No E m U _ o Co m -- :D .. m N Y o a 3 a 30 m 0) o o v vw m E C a) — U a) L O - N 2 > m N0L (D x O_. a) m a) U O 0 n cp c 0i ' N -0 N .w m L E o c d m m -0 o m° = a c x E . N o o o o m o co C O O C O L C p C O = O C O U O y° O N Q) .O N V V 4) a) 3 3 > LVC � c •`- �. OmXm .� am o � mm mpaci i cEa) Z0 uj Q) °- mod mmu I O N n C o V N N a) N d L L C 0 -0 =- - 3 " o cp (a V 3 c E 0 L � p � L. ° m m rn c d 0mo- mU .m ° � �`o Na) � a : (D O N N E • .D .N 3 c N tw oc y�c»cc L7 a) m an aid c N c y N 2a t U mE a O ° mc o � 0oo ooLO Q) ` " jp m o mp S o o 0E E oc o o � p w L of mm � O 0 � oy d mt000 0 0_ m 5 � E d aoa) X c = p`3 m '- LL �0 L)CLE y m Nr m of c°iE ,a m ° O` a) O) Q) a) L C p a) Q d E w L U N ,ma3tc00 imam > oco3 mm _0 o) `0_ Z > 3aF- o am�inimm ncN90 0-M (D ac) N 'Oc�o c c a) mm L O ° o rn o im nn CL ..-E.E 0m�m o'v m c z E z E a am 3 000 N E E mrn p E $ v coC aim - E > ) v ° o naiao a 11 ca r� 2 0 x o c x a.) m x °0 m m (D mm C d v w vo C ° ff 2 Q) _ c C o E m o (u E c o o v L '0 3 o N m L ° NE m O N O -p cL -O O C N m c_ O O O O c N m C C (7 N m a) C Q N N N a) >i O V - m va N o a) 'm c � E c o N >. O o0E0 n° mdo CL to U m t1 v y o 3 >o � nm w > -p Ec .c mcu c G .> nN _E o o - rLL m � o '°)° m > nc `.K oN a a m X m c o ° ° a) : m0 c C � -0 ma�ca>> vLiw � m-S mL m oEm o .� to 0EE ° - N � m oc Nm 3 ca) m ro c = cNm ac a n a) Ln p0 c m .? � E E 7 d a) o > > co .0 . N E ya m e E c -o `0 0. N E m._ m a) O L m tE c -5 c U 4) m C N la O O C C O p 0)M > a>it N o-c o m E a) a mom 'm > C d ° N '00— N a) N O) N a) C 'O C V m 0 0 m m m N m c E m � � -o CL ° m (� cu C N N N C 'm C M L. C N .x c a a) 0 0 o) C N _ N mo ° 0 _ E mp ` U a) - N °- U N N .m. - O p m c t6 �, {� O L ja 2 L C C U a) M L_ LL '-' IL C C m m O_ cm0 � 0m m .cNL , �� 3m 3 c � m y N o p d o o u t u E m a ° -0 3 N 2` m N c 0_ ? 3ECL. a m a) mo Lo N •O) BEN NO 'V EDO � CN N � C 'x mr O 'O ° N of a) 0 a m cc o � a>i m o `m °)a) c°) E ' °- a 0. a`a)i > tL 3 d U) o o U) .L... Z m +a+ N 'q .0 4: 2 d c m coo III mm o a m c L d o m o � L o n o j U 3 O C ° m a YO m0 ° N N C fill o .c L c a _ N m d Q QY m y E C O CL O m m Q m �0 p > a ° T D cu Q co mca � aaim '9 C _Om m M m (D) : o. mEm d m O1a o yN � m C U m L a IL � � m a~ m O m N d N — CL O E 3 0 ' ' 00 Q E w a) d rti �' 3 E ° rnU C C L a m a) @ EL a) a E o > m p c 3 m c R 3 'o a o c a) U Sow m � 0 -0 o VE CD = m c c '° o. m ai .a) c O myw a) d m as a) v) _ m me m E E E m - m u! m 'm C U E m m m o o °) cD a n o° a) o -p E d > U U 0 0 7 u(u 2 Q m E¢d z z m N d m O in .Q n c O m m OE d 4 o m a) a 2 ° m in-(D 0 CL m s Cd O C C U L N — 0 m 0 C C d C, m C C N L G C E m N p O C d 3 L m m L a) m C_ � � w n m w E a V) a1 V) C C O U O U C a N C j w m O of m N V V ° p ai s c v ai n o T.E m .c a) a) c m a a) -mop d w u t m m E a w m c Y m a cD E y w m rn E m m c ) L ? d 'y `6 Eo rn <° od m me c w O r 7 E .3 0 = Uo mo ca m " OM .L' E a N c �+ W m n a) p ma) tQ Ew Qm cm ; m C m as m U o c a) E y O Ern i 2 m � m 3 En maa)i -° o C o- .M acicLi � v c U co m 6 � m o 00 ° _c a) Q > m 'cm E ° d d O m u, iri v m -mp ,x m °) aN m E U C m .N o y 'm d o T ur m m v c a) a r m a � L v m e a .GO E o o .x y ° v � " w 3 0 o m E rno m o m � _ w °- Ec cp o � m apm ° a) m C U N O C O c m m O a) m w m y H N m m C T R m O .N N Q' Q co- d1 3 m m 'um " m M a m m 'a ° � ° m m 3 ° - c a 0 0 a) a c d 3a o 0m o W m a im Q O om Osm a` N w ° m w )n' o • • • • 2 0 ,2 • • • • • • 0 0 > C C N O U C C L E N E S C O. N m = Cl C L �p .Oa y '3p - O)� Q N N N 0 > O _0 a) O N a p_ O > (D U N 3 N R 0 O p as yy y m N 0. d N O T.� a C N ra C > 'U a L O- E Cl„a)„ O N CL L N O a 0 0 0 U Co e O m p_ p) 4) C y C Cl O w a) a) 0 C 3 a) G > a7 C C .0 p O C O (Na L U 8 C Cl O O a1 U > N O L 'N N 0) N Co Cl 0 C2 )a N V a) C C U b -p a U E CD W 0 C 0. 0 � C Q a) N .0. a) 0_ V. U _ Y C a) O C1 m E c E U C C N > p _ o c a o fn a s a` ) m C o a) 7E Z+ £ mca w E0 Zo R d mnN � coa y °� � 0 0 a) N a) L_ C a) L a) >` C a] C a p N N c C p O .L.. -0 U N y G O m C" a3a a) L C a O) N O N a) N d vi � Ec ivcO )0 ECN) E � Ode o C L c0 a) E � a) o, tOa M 3 3 a0 (D ,- C ° L my No c c _ C a) O L .T `) y � C a) d C o a) lam N le - 0' N a) 4) 3 L C C U U f0 R 0''O C a " N t a1a N p N O C) V N m w L a C w a) d CL N a) N a amc >L � a) a= T 4) o0- N c ac) as m o n a c ? E mom m E C z °o � -O � NM Naomi � aa)) o = a�i d o O C1 N L N L .N '- C U O L (` U L O .� F- m (n U F- a) to L U N Z F- - a F- Z O (6 0 L O a) 0 L a E O N N U 0- :rl m'w 3 C (1 a) O > N 2 p 2 4) p co O L 0) p T C a) a) C Q d O j 0 a) a) N w .N O C r R O mN y - ac�i � aNi > O LL O V C Q o O 3 4C 1 c> 0 N 2 mN N 0 N U N N U U O m a)O Y a d m c 0 O m a t t H aUi o. CL (1) C c . w a •+ a m gyp) .cmasoEQ) w ° c 00 .owa a mm� 2 LUp C IUp N a3 a1 ` N E c a O w 0 3 a) C1 0 C N O 0 M w C Q O w N L tin ay a .` o n 0- 2a C a1 a) ca C C N 0 U D a 3 O > 0 3 > V a) Q y E OC C CL_ am UL � a 3 a 'a � Na rrn U R m U m y m u 0 � '> mU � c ° nQ�° _ N n 3 O a1 C 0'C , L N '•t 2 C N 0 0 N c 0 N L _ .L.. a) a) N N U m O > a " .2 O O_ N O d M w aYa aO1i ` IaUa°ii NCN m ma -Fa (V 2 � � L > - c m � 3 . m c 0 c 5 m c aa)) 3 aa)) (Da) c '> � r c0 � cc moo = as K -o Na m O EO F- a) .- cFL a rnEa 0 mc a �cn mc3 Yc CL NaEami �_ ° c - m N N C " O c c a m m '- c o ��I) 300m m � E �° ,Lm. 8 m ° � UK2 - 0Cr m 'c a) N o v Z, a) 0 � om � � E NCm V i3 �(7ti E C C L N m 0 > 'O N C i�li� >� J J 0 ? c 0 E O m L d � II ` ' o3° � � ca) 0 oo0Co oN3 £ n- m g n E w- p t tii m N t a a N E m '�s o w c .2 m ( N _ ° U U Loo3m axia�i ' y � � >° a) 2) R &� m N m C C 'C Q 0 Co N -O c 0 d N N N Q "6 . vco L E oN32 o '> . cJio2E � omc oa c4 � OJ E 0. 2 N CL 3 ° p °- E CL .i) O W c to 0.d C 0 0. 3 a) d > m -D L U N 0 . o m e N ,> m 's , m m m L 'N ° m E aa) ° t ii c a, N r m m d -° y IL m � oJ > o CD4) -° N0N o o o N 0. 0 m o t .0 EL ) o. c m (aLN m ms m M U tl1 N °''8 j ' U) o N a) U y - t .0 m > N a m C C y c c �r a O c b o c N CU N c FE o m O N O. m N E mc 0 > 0 °Q C f i = 0 ° oa) ? c ' E E .m c a- E E o .Q m S o o a) - o o _ � 't d o n rn U m o� m(D tt= U) 0 a 0 of Z FK 0 o� Z _j-0 0 aa)i F E rn o cv a; m E c � a c a) ?. Eo m c c y mm cy Mcros o ? mco a) m m rn J m 3 c w a) .—c 0 N M E c a� t J r l6 O O c Co 0 4)N N l v - C '� �' m IA d N J LC d . mm �o° cEcsc =L c m c gym ° 0° " N d 3 0 G N N O M C w N o N O Co a m , � c a)m O 0 () O_ r 0> ) O N O Ij (( M C C O d 1 N j m c 0 U N d O O . {� tr C a L >'L U Ci ` C m C 5 m o 0 0 N N O 01 v c 0 _ V V I (��i O E L cp N C N2 a1 a N N "0 N - ° C m w ��.� o 0ono a� NC � � om �. Eoa - n O 6 ° N o o > L m a) 0 (1 a) n a c d .+ [� {: i mLmo m � E oo.- m C L J d'U m J c N O N M N O m L L Oi 41 J 0 0 L ° tq m C L O CL N N U) �'Qt m c -° oE `m ca) inno 3a � Z > J (v O Cl .0 N T C m -0 U .0 0) C U C 0 (� 0 .5 .0mm d ° m Noom = ° mom ° o mmEm a) LO � do � o ° 3mwN30 >. m - N d L C U 0 �� G J m J N EN .�-� -° 0 3 'm m ° ,o o m C 'p) Z, v a o N «� o aci crvcN m ccCd p (n J M " d C U E J > as m �'- O m U O • �. rQ�j ° 0a) E J ° mT E3o L mmm J x y � Na `° cYJiE � 0a mNQNOr c ._ m = aa0 ° a) o £ E E m a m � a o o f nc oL ° a s2J L E cmmm o x a) c w d H o_g y m F � � Q � � c m L) Z o.F- Co a L i N F • • • • N % jaa § ) = ® rEa k � ® j\ k ( f $ � ku E 2 _ - E E > \ 222k J J (kE ( E Ew cu 0 � 2 ' " 0E E $ ) 23 0 \ $ { ] /) \ ƒ ) $ ! 2E 0 co IL - & k � 00 ) (t 2 § - \ M CL ( ) 0 0 \ 0 \ 0 ko - / e e e : o o » } L3 L> . e k k } k k ) \ [ § f Em / ca CU 0 } kEQE 7 @ ] 4 [ ) = E ) ] | 3 CM 0 ca E 5 co So = ; � , § f \ - 2 ( § k f ) k � \} _ \ \ } § k 00 � k \ / / ) W § , (� - - — # ! .2 ) \ § M (D - 2 tea ] \ \ 22 \ ) - f E 0 — { �) 7 / ] / ) \) ) ) \k — & ; e G 2 _ - _ o 22 ) // ! § t ` © ® / / ) ) { ) kt ( -ac) e0E } § ) \ A ® k J \{ \ � � ® 0 ; , � § \ a / d _ « § q / ! 0 0 0 0 ) ` , E / \ f ; f / \\ ( 0 I E E � � o- )a m �IhIII1lh��`�' 2 d E n E m t - c (, g _ a � C � � y a s nE C = E oc - 3 m X O O n m T C N a) N N nc � � � t > O3 E . o o a a E (D d r (I) - w OO li ,i � amcL-E n6 ,� 0 U U 2-11 '� iI � Ma) Mm � � �r L C +� Ciii� h � nUmnoo � EB _ o c m a U . E II P 3 C T W a) la N C E t Q 3 0 C.w J co a) Y CL a) O . m a 0 : M- c r o a) m 4) C w u w aoEma) — "' EC � CL w i J N N w a d a) _ C O > N O 0 0 = 7 w U > SEo (D Ean� 0 WO 4 (( m w > « N O O COL ° 'v m e ai w o -Z d ° a) O a) 0 a) UO c C C C C c a d m a a) ° mF0) c = rnrnHn E E E E E E `� a) =o o r C ? , c 3 E E E E E E O - N N O O O O O O U 0 > Q 5 ,m > fa U U U U U U N (V a ow ° ° ° ° ° ° a) m f c W z z z z z z F c dd � C l iii � Y m m a a7 O " t a O a) U a o �' c N W d E !lljl�(�l V m -o0 3 a > d' qi m =_ Y � c 3ma) v N �Wi jli v o y a o 0) c > o _ o 2 �, 0 D '0 a) c m > m w 'w U a) E c m o � '�III�,I o P t a U > H ; o n c a) Vat 1d �. c _ = _a) C7 a) L) aEv C D 3 a_ ca am m u m CD m CSI iii (i U p N 'c m p > ,O N 0 �i ,' O m 0 Q D O � m O I 'E B d' Q> a � a Et ) oo , (U 0 0 0 m '3 E N N O O N T ? E {� a QCD H 3 N � CA i `3�1 C d !I ! E U C U , N g E •� � 'li Iil •� ,iii,;, c c c c c c c c E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E 0 0 0 0 0 o O O 77 0 U U 0 0 U U 0 if O O 0 0 O 0 O 0 •� i(�ii Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z .: or 0 3 N N E 0 2 - o O(D O c d w E E .mE 3 tt -o � o 4) 0 3 c m a p c N l ) 3 c N d t o -p p 3 �, ° oa� d m E 5 mEa) � d c � � � c Y NE yQ� ri �U E c m p mm E N N m > wmO N> _0 c 0 Y CL cE ° Eo °) o a p 0 pnnd c c n " w0 N � Uc0 o om m 3 r - o O c d G 1 �II m � m C Ny 0 �.. N p"aN. w a) � a C J N a m O fN C £ r �� oc N E ° m m N m m °: N a1°i y c c al � m -(D c c `o 0E v v (4 � E '� > F- N = m m o � sc wm Ea° Ea° cm ° rno ( � O N C m � E " N w 3 0 O w c Vi m d c m N LNL) m m ° r p ° m e (D acid c c `m —° � m p '� m d mLU .� mm T ° ° ° ohm ° Eo � Z00-0 ZcEs � -' � E = p m a>i 3 pE LEI 0m d ' ENm 3 fill cu�po > � .E Ems > 0 - zm � 5 < .0 0aa)) Nm = = = an d d m o °c' m v 'm j iii > 0 m n v = 3 O 'O! dpa ° .N. NC cm-0 N cEv � � o v � m � N 'pNC � o n m O m N U a) N C m N N > m v n a t w . o c U i�il am ° a m o � ° am � meson 2 � °tmd am no > O i I�(( n�-' C 'C U C LL c t U C_ J c a 0 . E M (D () la �i a; ° o x ( 3 mm v2 Na� NCL mm c N m d � m C 0 �ac0 m00 cw coE � m 0 00 'E (D is nom a m E OnoN = o ip .4 ' cE Eodup Oy iFa+r 'c ° >, m me c .0 a)d am W a) - m mp m 3Ym � � mm cc oz � 0 and cfrc (D �-mE � c E E _ 0 m ° 'N ° N d o p > > > E ° m om � ° o � ami � Zac � p mmcc ° d 4) 4)> Emoc >ac UL m a m o `m H w 9 O m 0 o � 0 r m 0 .E m 2 m E u r x ol, (`+r j�P; Attachment 3 To Report PSD-115-08 HEMSON C o n s u I t i n g L t d. 30 St. Patrick Street, Suite 1000, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5T 3A3 Facsimile (416) 595-7144 Telephone (416) 593-5090 e-mail: hemson@hemson.com MEMORANDUM To: Carlos Salazar, Manager of Community Planning and Design, Municipality of Clarington From: Russell Mathew, Stefan Krzeczunowicz, Hemson Consulting Ltd. Date: October 15, 2008 Re: Review of Region of Durham Growth Plan Conformity Work This memorandum is further to the request by the Municipality of Clarington to provide comments and advice on the emerging long-term growth management policies of the Municipality and the Region of Durham. The Region has recently released a number of documents as part of its Growth Plan conformity process, including: • Growing Durham. Phase I and 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Growth Assessment (May 27, 2008) • Growing Durham. Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario Working Paper (June 13, 2008) • Growing Durham. Draft Recommended Growth Scenario and Policy Directions (September 23, 2008) A key element of the above work is a long range growth forecast of population and housing to 2031 and of employment to 2056 for the Region and the area municipalities. 2 The purpose of this memorandum is twofold: 1. To comment on the forecasting method and key assumptions used in the Region's work. 2. To identify the implications of the forecast results for growth management in Clarington. A. POPULATION, HOUSEHOLD AND HOUSING FORECASTS Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan sets out the 2031 population (960,000 persons) and employment (350,000 jobs) forecast for the Region.This section of the memorandum addresses how the Region has translated the Growth Plan population forecast into a forecast of households — the number of social units — and housing types — how the households units are physically accommodated. Overall,the Region's method of forecasting households and housing types is considered appropriate. The cohort survival forecasting method— using age-specific household formation rates and age-specific housing occupancy patterns applied to the age structure of the Regional population — is a well-established and standard approach. Using a "housing market forecast" approach to test various assumptions about future housing choices, household occupancy patterns,etc. is also considered a reasonable method for evaluating how local market conditions might affect the overall forecast and for evaluating alternative growth scenarios. That said, a number of concerns exist about the Region's approach, both with respect to the overall Regional forecast and to the forecast for Clarington. HEMSON r 3 1. Overall Housing Demand in Durham 2006 to 2031 There is a significant difference between the Region's overall housing mix forecast contained in the report dated June 13, 2008, and the report dated September 23, 2008.As a result of a change in assumption concerning future housing demand the estimated number and proportion of high density units in the Region has effectively been doubled.The change is illustrated in Table 1 below: Table 1 Regional Housing Mix Forecast Assumptions June 13 September 23 Overall Unit Mix Forecast Low Density 59% 50% Medium Density 30% 25% High Density 11% 25% Mix in Built Up Area Low Density 27% 19% Medium Density 46% 33% High Density 27% 48% Mix in Greenfield Low Density 77% 68% Medium Density 21% 20% High Density 2% 12% It is understood that the change in the housing mix assumptions was the result of direction from the Regional Planning Committee and was not made on the basis of additional analysis of future housing demand.Without contesting the merits of this change, of more concern is that the total number of new households forecast for the Region to 2031 increased from 151,200 in the June 13 report to 162,000 in the September 23 report, a difference of 10,800 household units(or 7 per cent of the total).The stated reason for this increase in households is the lower demand yields (or average number of persons per unit) in high-density units(see page 21 of the September 23 report).In effect, the Region assumes that the increasing number (and proportion) of high density units to 2031 will lead to different types of household being accommodated in Durham. HEMSON I 4 i This asumption is not supportable in the context of household formation patterns in the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH). The generation of households from a population is an expression of a complex series of social and economic factors, which are not typically influenced by land use planning policy. These factors include the number of children, the age at which grown children leave home, the preference for roommates or tenants, the preference and age of "marriage", divorce rates, changing mortality rates,the preference for aging parents to move in with children,and the age of moving to an institutional setting. A change to the assumed housing mix should not therefore lead to a corresponding change in any of these factors. Rather, such a change only means accommodating the same number of households in a different physical form. In the absence of any assumed forecast change to the social and economic factors which underlie household formation in Durham (which is implied by the Region's analysis) the 2031 population forecast fixed by the Growth Plan should generate a fixed number of households in the Region. Planning policy may be able to influence how these households will be accommodated in housing units but not the total number of households or the persons per unit required. If the Growth Plan population forecast to be achieved in Durham is to be housed in the housing mix proposed by the Region in its September 23 report then the Region should expect that the average persons per unit of higher density units increases over time. In short, the Region should plan for more family households to be accommodated in apartments than in the past. 2. Implications of the Housing Forecast for Clarington In light of the significant projected change in housing mix a fuller discussion of the reason for the existing and historic pattern of housing in the Region should be expected.In Clarington,where growth has been driven in large part by a market demand for low density built forms, the basis of the change needs particular explanation. It is noted that, for example, while the household forecast for the Region has been increased as a result of the change in the housing unit type assumptions (as discussed above)the number of households in Clarington is held constant in the June 13 and September 23 reports. This pattern of development occurs in spite of a significant shift to higher density forms forecast for the Municipality. What is different about the future occupancy patterns(ppu's)of apartments in Clarington from those elsewhere in the Region's lakeshore municipalities? HEMSON 5 The full scale of the shift in housing types is not adequately discussed in the Region's reports. In order to achieve the Region's housing forecast for Clarington, 23 per cent of all new housing between 2016 and 2031 would have to be apartments. Outside Toronto, this high market share for apartments is only being realized in the GTAH in Mississauga, which has almost reached build-out of its greenfield areas. As a final point, Clarington is forecast to experience a dramatic slowdown in overall unit growth after 2026; the reason for the slowdown is unexplained. The historic, together with the Region's forecast housing patterns in Clarington, are provided in Table 2 below: Table 2 Growing Durham Unit Growth Forecast:Municipality of Clarington i Period Unit Growth (#) Unit Growth (%) Low Medium High Low Medium High Density Density Density Density Density Density i 2001-2006 3,175 364 536 78% 9% 13% I 2007-Sep 2008 935 151 1 86% 14% 0% 2006-2011 3,053 226 99 90°% 7% 3% 2011-2016 2,840 510 411 76% 14% 11% 2016-2021 3,237 874 1,036 63% 17% 20% 2021-2026 4,227 1,654 1,524 570% 220% 210% 2026-2031 2,170 1,850 1,525 39°% 33% 28% Total 2006.2031 15,527 5,114 4,595 62% 20% 18% Three comments are of importance with respect to the numbers shown in Table 2: • The total unit growth forecast for Clarington of 25,236 units between 2006 and 2031 (approximately 1,000 units a year), represents a higher rate of growth than has been experienced in recent years but is well within a reasonable forecast range(the Municipality achieved 1,015 new units in 2005 at the height of the recent construction boom). HEMSON 6 • The rate at which housing types are forecast to change in Clarington is also reasonable. The notion that over the next ten years development will be largely of a lower density form, with the shift to medium and higher density forms occurring over a longer time period fits with proposed and approved development in Clarington and the typical pattern of development across the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Table 2 shows that some demand for high density units already exists in Clarington. There is no reason why anticipated local and Regional planning policies that encourage higher residential densities,changes in housing affordability,the development of"complete communities"as per the Growth Plan, and the assumed propensity of aging seniors to downsize,will not lead to increased demand for higher density forms in Clarington in the 2020s. • There are reasons, however, to question the number of higher density units forecast for Clarington in the later part of the period to 2031.The total number of high density units forecast to 2031 is predicated on the Municipality achieving about 200 of these units per year from 2016 to 2021 and 300 per year from 2021 to 2031. This is a very agressive forecast, not only in the context of historic demand for apartments in Clarington, but especially within the context of the wider Regional forecast which projects an even greater rate and scale of high density unit growth in other lakeshore municipalities. Recognizing that residential location is subject to a very complex decision-making process,built form is a key determinant in the process. A future household in Durham may be able to afford an apartment in Pickering, a row house in Oshawa, or a single detached house in Clarington.The household may choose any of these options, balancing price, location, and unit type. What the household is unlikely to do, however, is to choose an apartment in Clarington. Given its geographic location, Clarington will always be at a competitive disadvantage with its neighbouring lakeshore municipalities in attracting the market for high density units. Achieving denser more compact development in Clarington through higher density housing types at the rate being proposed by the Region is, therefore,unrealistic. HEMSON 7 B. EMPLOYMENT FORECAST Overall,the Region's method for forecasting employment and employment land needs, as well as the rationale for examining employment on a longer timeframe to 2056, is sound and appropriate. The general conclusion that achieving higher employment densities (sufficient to allow the Region to meet the required Growth Plan density targets) will be an enormous challenge is one that is shared by all upper-tier municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The challenge will be especially difficult in Durham where much of the current and anticipated employment is in large scale low density industrial and utility operations as well as warehousing and distribution type centres. Two general comments about the employment forecast for the Region and for Clarington are important: • In general,the Region's reports do not adequately discuss the magnitude of the shift in activity rate and patterns of employment required in Durham in order to meet the 2031 and 2056 employment targets as well as the goals of the Draft Recommended Growth Scenario (Scenario 3). In this respect,the current role of Durham in the contex of the broader Ontario economy that is increasingly expected (and planned for under the Growth Plan) to grow west and south of the GTAH is underplayed.Moreover,while the main drivers of employment growth that have been identified in the reports — the expansion of Highway 407 and the role of the Clarington Energy Park are particularly important in Clarington — these drivers by themselves do not support either the forecast scale of employment growth or the forecast shift in pattern of employment across the Region. • A focus on achieving the high employment densities in the Pickering and Oshawa Urban Growth Centres may limit market potential in Clarington, particularly for higher density or prestige uses. HEMSON 8 1. Implications for Clarington The Region's employment forecast for Clarington is summarized in Table 3 below: Table 3 Growing Durham Employment Growth Forecast:Municipality of Clarington Period Primary Work Industrial Commercial Institutional No Total at /Retail Fixed Home POW 2007-2006 29 298 706 796 876 (141) 2,564 2006-2011 21 268 395 1,224 330 27 2,265 2011-2016 35 379 1 1,957 1,325 548 53 4,297 2016-2021 1 29 375 2,599 1,641 601 47 5,292 2021-2026 28 454 1,838 2,047 1,006 46 5,419 2026-2031 12 301 1,272 1,323 597 26 3,531 2006-2031 125 1,777 8,061 7,560 3,082 199 1 20,804 The following comments are of importance with respect to the figures shown in Table 3: • recognizing that work at home, commercial/retail, and institutional employment primarily provides services to Clarington's resident population it is assumed that employment growth in these sectors is directly related to population growth. • rapid employment growth in the industrial sector is responsible for the major part of overall growth in Clarington between 2011 and 2021. Presumably a large portion of such growth represents construction jobs that will be needed as planned large scale industrial and utility projects proceed. HEMSON 9 • the forecast overall employment growth to 2031 in Clarington is aggressive.However,given the locational advantages Clarington offers, the readily available supply of employment land in the Municipality,and the Regional policy planning environment that seeks to dramatically increase the range and scale of employment in Durham, the Region's forecast for Clarington is eminently achievable. C. LOCAL CONDITIONS IN CLARINGTON The current land use patterns and market realities in Clarington are recognized and discussed in the Region's reports. They can be summarized as follows: • in the context of the Region of Durham,Clarington has a unique mix of distinct urban communities separated by extensive rural areas; • achieving intensification in Clarington, given the current urban structure, the strong preference for low density housing,and the general dislike of high density built forms near current residential neighbourhoods, is an enormous challenge; • significant intensification will be delayed in Clarington to the period after 2021 as a result of market realities; • there are opportunities for residential intensification in existing urban areas, especially those related to the anticipated extension of 00 Transit to Bowmanville and the recent market opportunities developing in the port of Newcastle and other waterfront locations. That said, in the context of Clarington, it must be stated that these opportunities are by themselves unlikely to effect a change in local housing demand in such a significant way. • Clarington exhibits a pattern of employment and employment land use that is unique in the Region — large existing and anticipated industrial facilities, a ready supply of employment land (25% of the Region's total supply), and the emerging Clarington Energy Park. HEMSON io It is important to point out that the current and anticipated pattern of employment in Clarington, associated with energy industries for example, is unlikely to contribute to higher employment densities. D. SCENARIO EVALUATION With respect to the Region's approach to selecting and evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of different growth scenarios the following points can be made: • overall, the three scenarios selected by the Region for evaluation, the criteria used to evaluate the scenarios, and the major strengths and weaknesses identified for each scenario, are considered thorough and appropriate. • given current and anticipated development in the Municipality, the potential of the waterfront in Clarington is unlikely to greatly contribute to achieving the goals of the Draft Recommended Growth Scenario. • The Draft Recommended Growth Scenario, while best meeting the objectives of the Growth Plan,does bring with it a measure of risk that is not present in the other scenarios,especially as major infrastructure investments are required'up- front' in order for the scenario to develop initially. The Growing Durham reports acknowledge the great difficulties facing the Region in planning to achieve the Growth Plan 2031 population and employment forecasts, as well as the statutory density and intensification targets. The Region has developed a growth forecast and has proposed an ambitious growth management strategy that is based on sound analysis and appropriate consultation,and which would appear to meet the Growth Plan requirements. That said, the Region's approach to forecasting households as distinct from housing types is unclear and requires explanation. The unique position of the Municipality of Clarington is reflected in the Region's growth forecasts and growth management strategy.However,the forecast shift in growth patterns is unrealistic with respect to the number of high density residential units anticipated for the Municipality. HEMSON Attachment 4 To Report PSD-115-08 Extract from the Agricultural Advisory Committee meeting minutes: WHEREAS farming is the #1 industry in Clarington; and WHEREAS the Greenbelt and Places to Grow legislation was designed to help protect farmland; and WHEREAS the best farmland in southern Ontario is within sight of the CN Tower; and WHEREAS the most productive farmland within the whitebelt has now been identified by the Region of Durham as the future employment and urban residential lands to 2031 and 2056; and WHEREAS identifying the lands would eliminate the urban separators between Courtice and Bowmanville and Bowmanville and Newcastle in Clarington contrary to the Durham Region and Clarington's current Official Plans; and WHEREAS farmland is necessary for food security; NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED THAT the Agricultural Advisory Committee of Clarington is requesting Clarington Council, all other local municipalities in Durham Region, the Durham Agricultural Advisory Committee and the Durham Environmental Advisory Committee to call on Regional Council to support protection of agricultural lands within the whitebelt by redirecting the Grow Durham planning initiative focus to exploration of alternate solutions for urban development and intensification with appropriate planning measures to protect responsible agricultural practices e.g. buffers and setbacks.s