HomeMy WebLinkAboutPSD-015-08
Cl!1!il1glOn
REPORT
PLANNING SERVICES
Meeting:
GENERAL PURPOSE AND ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE
'.Ke5Dh^-+iorl#~PA-IDI- ~
Monday, February 4, 2008
Date:
Report #: PSD-015-08
File #: PLN 1.1.12
By-law #:
Subject:
UPDATE ON THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GROWTH PLAN FOR THE
GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE, 2006
RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee
recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PSD-015-08 be received.
Submitted by:
Davi J. rome, M.C.I.P., R.P.P.
Director, Planning Services
Reviewed by: d t'- q, . .t2 Q..:. ~
Franklin Wu
Chief Administrative Officer
DJ/COS/DJC/df/sh
29 January 2008
CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF ClARINGTON
40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L 1C 3A6 T (905)623-3379 F (905)623-0830
"",.--,
REPORT NO.: PSD-015-08
PAGE 2
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 The purpose of this report is to provide Council with an update on the implementation of
the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, with specific reference to the
delineation of a "Built Boundary" for the Municipality of Clarington and the steps the
Region of Durham is taking to implement the Growth Plan.
2.0 BACKGROUND
2.1 On June 16, 2006, the Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal (PIR) released the
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006. It was prepared under the
Places to Grow Act, 2005, as part of the Places to Grow initiative to plan for healthy and
thriving growth throughout the province.
2.2 The objective of the Growth Plan is to provide growth management policy direction to
the year 2031 to address the problem of sprawl and the economic competitiveness of
Central Ontario as reflected in congested transportation routes, ineffective public transit,
soaring infrastructure costs, conversion of employment areas, deprivation of the natural
environment and human health. Through the Plan, the Province intends to significantly
alter growth management by using its planning powers and infrastructure funding
capacity.
2.3 The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 supports the creation of
compact, mixed-use and transit-supportive communities. It requires municipalities to
accommodate a significant portion of future residential and employment growth through
intensification.
The provincial government is currently working on two other initiatives that will have an
impact on Clarington. As part of the Growth Plan implementation strategy, the Province
is undertaking a regional economic analysis to identify provincially significant
employment areas. From our perspective we want to ensure that the Energy and
Science and Technology Business Parks are recognized as significant employment
areas.
The other major initiative undertaken by the Provincial Government is the preparation of
a Regional Transportation Plan for the Greater Toronto area and Hamilton. The process
is being carried out by the Greater Toronto Transportation Authority - GTTA- also
known as Metrolinx. The Regional Transportation Plan will become the framework to
determine transportation priorities and investment for GO, public transit, and highways.
It is expected that a draft Transportation Plan will be ready in about six months time.
Metrolinx has released the first discussion paper - Towards Sustainable Transportation.
They will release other papers on topics like Mobility Hubs, WalklCyclefTransportation
Demand Management, Moving Goods, Highways and Roads, and Transit. Carlos
Salazar from the Planning Services Department is a member of the Technical Advisory
Group for some of these papers.
REPORT NO.: PSD-015-08
PAGE 3
2.4 A key policy in the Growth Plan is the establishment of an intensification target, which
specifies that by 2015 and each year thereafter, a minimum of 40 lJercent of new
residential development will occur within the "Built Boundary" of each upper- or
single-tier municipality. In our case, the 40% is will be measured at the Regional level.
The intensification target is a minimum target and municipalities, through their
intensification strategies, will identify areas appropriate for intensification within their
built boundary.
2.5 Lands that lie outside the Built Boundary but are within the settlement area are subject
to the Growth Plan's "Designated Greenfield" area policies, including the Designated
Greenfield area density target of 50 residents and jobs per hectare. The settlement area
boundary is defined by the respective municipal official plan.
2.6 The Region of Durham postponed the adoption of certain components of Amendment
114, such as its residential growth and employment growth policies because of the
difference between the Growth Plan and the Region's population and employment
targets. According to the Places to Grow Act, the Region's growth policies need to
conform to the Growth Plan. Consequently the Region, during the summer of 2007,
retained the service of Urban Strategies, Watson and Associates Economists Ltd. and
TSH Consulting Engineers to conduct a Growth Plan Implementation Study that would
form the basis for bringing the Regional Official Plan into conformity with the Growth
Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The progress with regard to this initiative is
further explained in paragraph 3.3 of this report.
3.0 DISCUSSION
3.1 What is the Built Boundary?
3.1.1 The Built Boundary, by definition identifies the built-up area of a municipality by June
16, 2006. The Built Boundary is fixed in time for the purposes of implementing and
monitoring a number of key policies of the Growth Plan. Residential development
occurring within the Built Boundary will be counted towards achievement of the
intensification target.
It is important to emphasize that the Built Boundary is not a land-use designation and
the delineation of the Built Boundary will not confer any new land-use designations, nor
alter existing land-use designations. Any development on lands within the Built
Boundary is still subject to the relevant provincial and municipal planning policies and
approval processes.
3.2 How is the Built Boundary developed?
3.2.1 In November 2006, PIR released the Technical Paper on a Proposed Methodology for
Developing a Built Boundary for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. That paper described
the steps to delineate the Built Boundary, and applied the methodology to generate grid-
cell mapping of the approximate built-up areas in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. In
Clarington, the Province delineated built-boundaries for Courtice, Bowmanville,
Newcastle, and Orono.
REPORT NO.: PSD-015-08
PAGE 4
3.2.2 Working from the preliminary Draft Built Boundary, PIR verified the underlying data and
assumptions with all municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe in the winter and
spring of 2007. The Region of Durham worked closely with the municipalities to prepare
their technical comments. Regional staff was very supportive of the municipalities'
efforts to provide comments to the Provincial Government. This feedback and advice
from municipalities, was used to further revise the methodology and a Proposed Final
Built Boundary was issued in late Fall 2007 for final input from municipalities.
3.2.3 Regional Planning Staff in collaboration with the Clarington Planning Services
Department staff are in the process of verifying the Proposed Final Built Boundary and
are providing final feedback to the Ministry. It is expected that the Final Built Boundary
as well as the full methodology will be released once all necessary refinements are
complete within the first quarter of 2008. Once issued, the Final Built Boundary must be
used in implementing the Growth Plan.
3.2.4 Large scale copies of maps reflecting the proposed Built Boundary for Clarington are
available at the Planning Services Department.
3.3 Durham Region's Implementation of the Growth Plan
3.3.1 The Region of Durham, in response to:
. the Growth Plan forecast that 373000 more people will be living in Durham and
142000 more jobs will be created in this region over the next 25 years,
. the Growth Plan intensification directives for built-up areas and designated
greenfields, and,
. the requirement in the Places to Grow Act, 2005 that a municipality must bring its
official plan into conformity with the Growth Plan before June 16, 2009;
initiated a Growth Plan Implementation Study in July 2007.
3.3.2 The Growth Plan Implementation Study will result in a recommended growth scenario
for Durham to 2031 and a refined policy framework, articulated through the Regional
Official Plan, to better manage growth and development in the Region in a matter that
conforms to the Growth Plan.
3.3.3 On January 8, 2008 the Regional Planning Committee authorized the release of the 1st
report of the Growth Plan Implementation initiative entitled Growing Durham, Growth
Plan Implementation Study, Draft - Phase 1 & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial
Analysis. A copy of the Executive Summary "Overview" is attached.
3.3.4 This Draft Report consists of a Reconnaissance phase (the distinctive characteristics,
opportunities and challenges of the Region) and an Initial Growth Assessment phase
with specific emphasis on the potential of the Region to accommodate growth through
intensification of existing built-up areas, in Designated Greenfields and employment
lands needs.
REPORT NO.: PSD-015-08
PAGE 5
3.3.5 Planning Staff of Clarington met with the Region on Friday, January 25th. 2008 to
discuss the report and Staff will also be providing further input to inform the next phase
of the study. The inputs given will assist the consultant in refining and confirming
directions for subsequent phases of the study, which will include distribution of growth to
each of the area municipalities.
3.3.6 The Draft Report also initiated the start of the consultation program by the Region with
the first Public Information Session that was held on January 29, 2008.
3.3.7 A preliminary review of the Draft Report raises certain concerns, such as:
. A map reflecting two alternative locations for a future GO Station in Bowmanville,
one at the corner of Waverley Road and the 401 and the other further north adjacent
to the Bowmanville West Town Centre. This raises serious concerns as the
Municipality has just completed the Bowmanville West Town Centre Secondary Plan
and has been promoting higher density in the area in large part due to the proposed
GO Station. Similar concerns have been raised in Oshawa. Staff from both
municipalities' planning departments are meeting to on how to recommend to
Council a position on the issue and,
. The methodology and accuracy of the research in determining the land availability
for intensification in Clarington;
. The accuracy of the factors and assumptions that were used to create the growth
scenario's for the Region for the next 25 years.
3.3.8 Based on the analysis, the Study provides the following preliminary directions for the
next phases of the study:
. Positive levels of growth need to be directed to all of Durham's communities,
including Durham's northern communities, in order to ensure their economic viability;
. The Region's overall residential land needs to 2031 are beyond the supply of land
within the current urban boundary - the analysis indicates a deficit of 12,500 units
within the built-boundary;
. In Greenfield Lands, the analysis indicates a deficit of 2081 gross hectares;
. The need for up to 418 gross hectares of additional land is required to meet
employment needs - this will require strategic investment and more land;
. Meeting the Growth Plan density targets will require a more urban development
pattern than has historically existed in the region; and,
. Growth also needs to be accommodated through the creation of new growth nodes
matched with supporting infrastructure.
4.0 CONCLUSION
4.1 The delineation of a Final Built Boundary and the implementation of the Growth Plan will
significantly alter the urban growth in Clarington over the next 25 years. Clarington
Planning Staff will, through active participation in the Region's initiatives and through its
own Official Plan Review process, provide an appropriate response to the Growth Plan
directives.
REPORT NO.: PSD-015-08
PAGE 6
Attachment:
Attachment 1 - Map of Proposed final Built Boundary for the Region of Durham
Attachment 2 - Growing Durham: Growth Plan Implementation Study
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Attachment 1
To Report PSD-015-08
Boondary of Upper-and Single-Tier MlZlicipalit:ies
Boundary d Lower-T\er Munldpalltles
Proposed Final BuiltBoundalY
-
~lIneated
Built-up Areas
Undellneated
6uilt-upArea5
DGreentleltArea*
Sc>uI'(;l'S:Ml1islryr$Puto!c[nfmstrUdureREnewal,Hlntslrya
NiibJralRl!sour<:e5andMlnistJyafMunidpalAlTillrsandHouslog
. Ont.rIoRegulallol159!D5
Proposed Final Built
Boundary for the
Region of Durham
The information displayed on the base map has been compiled from various sources,
may not accurately reflect approved land-use and planning boundaries, may not be to
scale, and may be out of date. The Province of Ontario assumes no responsibility or
liability for any consequences of any use made of this map.
Proposed Final Built Boundary for the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006
23
Technical Paper Fall 2007
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Attachment 2
To Report PSD-015-08
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OVERVIEW
WHAT IS THE DURHAM GROWTH
PLAN IMPLEMENTATION STUDY?
The Province's Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe,
released in 2006, directs that by 2031, the Region of Durham
plan for 960,000 people living and 350,000 people working within
the Region. That represents 373,000 more people and 142,000
more jobs than existed in the Region in 2006. In planning ahead
for this growth and in response to recent Provincial growth
management policy directions, the Regio~.. of Durham initiated
a Growth Plan Implementation Study in July 2007. This Study
builds on the Region's Official Plan review work to begin to prepare
recommended policy responses that will bring the Region's Official
Plan into conformity with the Growth Plan policies. In particular,
the study is intended to address Growth Plan population and
employment forecasts to 2031, intensification and greenfield
density targets, and resultant urban land needs in Durham up
to 2029. The Growth Plan Implementation Study will result in a
recommended growth scenario for Durham to 2031 and a refined
policy framework to better manage grovvth and development in the
Region in a manner that conforms to the Province's Growth Plan
policies.
WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This Draft Report provides a synthesis of the first phases,
Reconnaissance and Initial Growth Assessment, undertaken for
the Growth Plan Implementation Study. The Reconnaissance
phase resulted in the assembly of a solid understanding of the
current regional context - the distinctive characteristics, the
opportunities and challenges therein - painting an overall canvas
within which growth will occur. The Initial Growth Assessment
phase has resulted in the creation of a residential growth forecast
that provides a market-driven base case growth scenario and has
been the basis for three streams of initial analysis: the potential
to accommodate growth through intensification of existing built-up
areas; in Greenfield development; and employment land needs.
Given the interrelated nature of these streams of analysis and
the assumptions inherent in them, the resultant land needs
assessment in this draft report provide only initial findings that will
need to be tested and refined through future phases ofthe work.
More specifically, the work creates a base line foundation for
testing of alternative scenarios that will accommodate population
and employment growth within Durham Region to 2031. The
testing of alternative growth scenarios will be the focus of the next
phase of work.
OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE
CURRENT REGIONAL CONTEXT
In 2000, the Region of Durham embarked upon a Regional
Official Plan Amendment exercise to update the 1993 Regional
Official Plan (ROP). Through this amendment, a comprehensive
review and substantial analysis of existing policies within the ROP
occurred. This proauced a series of recommended directions
that wound up forming the basis for proposed amendments to
the 1993 ROP (ROPA 114). In 2006, the Province released the
Greater Golden Horseshoe iGGH) Growth Plan and Greenbelt Plan.
The Growth Plan establishes the following policies with which the
ROP must conform: Population and job forecasts of 960,000 and
350,000, respectively, by 2031; 40% of new development to be
accommodated within the built up area; Pickering and Oshawa as
Urban Growth Centres with a planned density of 200 people and
jobs/hectare by 2031; and a planned density of 50 people and
jobs/hectare on Greenfield lands.
The following is a synopsis of the key observations from the
background review, interviews with region staff, and consultation
with local municipal partners and key stakeholders;
. There are 6 key drivers of growth in the Region that will be
considered in this study: University of Ontario Institute for
Technology IUOIT/Durham College); the planned Seaton
Community; Highway 407; proposed Pickering Airport;
Innovation and new technologies; and the countryside;
. Each local municipality has defined a distinct future and
URBAN STRATEGIES INC 1
approach to accommodating growth;
. There are market constraints to meeting the Growth Plan
ta rgets;
. Servicin~!s adequate to support growth in major urban areas
but is a constraint to growth in northern settlement areas;
. Accommodating intensification in a predominantly low density
community will be a challenge;
. Strategic approaches will be needed to achieve Regional
employment objectives;
. Transit will playa critical role in managing growth within the
Region;
. Regional Centres, Corridors and growth nodes will playa vital
role in accommodating intensification; and
. Durham's waterfront resource may not be fully capitalized.
A FRAMEWORK FOR CREATING
GROWTH SCENARIOS
On the basis of this understanding of the regional context, a series
of seven grolNth scenario principles have been drafted in addition
to a set of parameters and evaluation criteria. While development
and testing of alternative growth scenarios should be guided by
the following principles.
. Foster livable urban environments
. Foster economic potential and increased job opportunities
. Enhance mobility within the Region
. Ensure an efficient and sustainable infrastructure and servicing
network
. Use land wisely and efficiently
. live in Harmony with the Environment
. Protect and enhance the Region'-s Waterfronts
INITIAL GROWTH ASSESSMENT
TheJnitial Growth Assessment analysis includes the creation of a
base-case forecast growth model that provides the data required
for three main streams of analysis: intensification, Greenfield and
employment. The initial findings of each stream are then evaluated
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with. respect to meeting the Provincial Growth Plan density and
intensification targets and to determine a preliminary urban land
needs assessment for the Region.
GROWTH FORECASTS
The residential growth forecast is based on recent and anticipated
market conditions as well the population forecast derived from
Schedule 3 of the Provincial Growth Plan. This forecast is referred
to as the "Base Case Growth Scenario" throughout this report.
Most significantly. the total 2031 Base Case population forecast
has been downwardly adjusted by 90,600 in comparison to the
2006 OPR forecast given current and planned market uptake. Key
observations from the residential growth forecast include:
. Over the 2006-2031 forecast period. the Region's housing
stock is anticipated to increase by 151,199, which represents a
25-year average of ~er 6,000 units per year;
. Comparatively, historical housing completions averaged
approximately 4,300 units per year from 1997 to 2006;
. By 2031, the total number of households across the Region is
forecast to increase to 345,800;
. The mix of new housing units is forecast to become gradually
more weighted toward medium- and high-density housing
forms. From 2006 to 2031, new housing units are anticipated
to average approximately 59% low-density, 30% medium-density
and 11% high-density;
. The long-term shift towards a greater mix of medium- and
high-density housing forms is anticipated to be driven by a
combination of housing pricejaffordability and demographics
(i.e. population age structure);
. With respect to growth rates, annual population and housing
growth levels are anticipated to peak by 2021, largely due to the
aging of the population base and lower forecast Provincial-wide
economic output and employment growth (i.e. gross domestic
product) during the latter portion of the forecast period;
. Persons per unit (PPU) levels for housing units in Durham are
forecast to steadily decline from 3.02 in 2006 to 2.88 by 2016,
and 2.78 by 2031;
OURHAM GROWTH PLAN IMPLEMENTATION STUDY - DRAFT PHASE 1 & 2 REPORT
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Despite the recent downward adjustment to the Durham Region
long-term population forecast, the future growth outlook for
this area is very positive. Over the next 25 years, Durham is
anticipated to average approx. 5,600 units per year, which is well
above historical averages.
INTENSIFICATION ANALYSIS
The purpose of this analysis has been to assess whether there
is sufficient intensification opportunity within the Region's
current built-up area to accommodate the number of forecasted
residential units to the year 2031. The intensification analysis has
been structured in order to explore and seek to answer three key
questions:
1. How many units have to be accommodated within the
built-up area to achieve the 40% Intensification target?
Seeking to achieve the polley target of 40% of the total forecast
growth within the built up area, would result In the following levels
of housing units being provided:
. To 2015, at 20% intensificatjon levels, a housing demand of up
to 10,472 units within the built-up area
. Between 2015 and 2031. at 40% intensification levels, a
housing demand of up to 39,500 units within the built up area
. In total, requiring a total of 50,000 new units within the built up
area by 2031.
2. How many intensification units the market base case
scenario forecasts would anticipate being developed within the
built-up area to 2031?
The housing demand analysis results indicate that 49,900 units
are forecasted to be built within the built up area over the 2006 to
2031 period, which is 33% of the Regional total. Over the period
between 2015 and 2031, 36% of all residential growth will occur
within the built-up area wIth 35,257 units forecasted.
3: Is there a sufficient supply of lands appropriate for
intensification to accommodate the 40% target?
When considering the appropriate locations for growth within the
existing communities of Durham, it is important to understand
that there are areas, such as stable residential neighbourhoods,
that are not appropriate for change and focus on the areas that
may appropriately accommodate new or additional development
such as the Reglona! Centre. Corridors and other areas where
growth may be directed. Based on this analysis, the number of
units that could be accommodated within the Regional Centres,
Corridors, and other potential grQl,vth areas, such as transit
stations, is approximately 25,600 units.
GREENFIELD ANALYSIS
The intent of the Greenfield analysis has been to assess the
designated Greenfield land needs over a 20 year planning period.
Greenfield housing supply
A total of 8,173 units are currently in the development process
on designated Greenfield land. Of these active applications in the
Greenfield area, 70% are low density, 21% are medium density
and 9% are high density housing. With respect to potential
housing units on vacant Greenfield lands, 20, 710 are low-density,
11,789 are medium-density and 13,807 are high-density. When
considering all vacant residential land supply and units in the
development process (adjusted for residential land vacancy), the
total housing supply on Greenfield land is 80,089 units, of which
approximately 44% are low-density housing form.
Greenfield housing demand
Within the total Base Case Scenario housing demand forecast
of 151,199 units, 33% are allocated to the built up area, while
the remaining 67% have been allocated to Greenfield Lands. In
accordance with recent and anticipated housing trends, market
demand in the Greenfield area will be dominated by low-density
housing, at approximately 75% of total Greenfield housing. The
remaining 25% of housing demand in the Greenfield area will
be comprised of medium-density (24%) and high-density (1%)
households.
URBAN STRATEGIES INC 3
Greenfield residential land needs (supply vs. demand)
Under the density and unit mix"assumptions, Greenfield housing
demand exceeds developable low-density housing supply by
27,059 units. On the other hand, there is an identified surplus of
potential medium and high-density supply within the forecasted
period under the Base Case Scenario. ON this basis a residential
land deficit of 1,041 net ha and 2,081 gross ha has been
calculated for low-density housing. The results ofthis analysis
indicate that current low-density housing supply does not satisfy
demand and therefore additional residential land will be required.
Accordingly, the Greenfield analysis identifies that at the Region-
wide level there is a considerable mismatch between housing
supply and demand.
EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS
The employment analysis provides an assessment of Durham's
long-term land needs for employment lands. Key observations
include:
. the total forecast employment growth is anticipated to average
approximately 5,700 employees per year, which is moderately
above historical averages from 1991 to 2001;
. Based on current employment estimates, and the deferred
timing of development commencement of the Seaton Lands
in Pickering {2011j2012), it does not appear that Durham will
reach the 2011 Growth Plan employment forecast;
. The post 2011 rate of employment growth in Durham is forecast
to increase considerably, largely due to the realization of key
elements of the Regiona! structure identified in the Rap (i.e.
Highway407, Pickering Airport, UOlT, etc.); and
. The significant decline in post 2021 employment growth, as per
the Growth Plan forecast, does not appear reasonable given the
considerable ramp up of employment demand from 2011 to
2021.
Employment Demand
Over the 2009 - 2029 time period a total of 74,300 new
4
jobs are anticipated to be developed on employment lands,
which represents 60% of total job growth (excluding primary
employment) across Durham Region. The remaining 40% of new
jobs across Durham Region will be located in the Living Areas
Designation.
To accommodate the projected job growth on employment lands,
a total of 2,860 gross ha of employment lands will be required,
based ana calculated gross density of 26 employees/ha, Over
the 20 year forecast period, approximately 32% for forecast
demand for employment lands will be located within the built up
area, based on currently identified developable land supply.
Employment Land Supply
The following key attributes have been identified with respect to
Durham's employment)and supply:
. As of year-end 2006-Uurham Region has an identified
developable employment lands inventory of 2,217 net ha. Of
this tatar, approximately 67% is located within the West and
Central anchor;
. Approx. 36% percent of Durham's developable employment
lands inventory is located within the built boundary;
. Over 50% of the Region's potentially developable employment
lands are located along the proposed Highway 407; and
. Based on discussions with local realtors/developers, recent
construction of larger developments in Durham has been
hindered by the lack of larger (20 + hectares) sites, as opposed
to pOOf demand.
. In accordance with the above supply and demand analysis
on employment lands, the following land needs have been
identified on a Region-wide basis. A small deficit of 47 gross
ha has been identified by 2029. For the purposes of long-
range land use planning. 47 gross ha should be considered the
minimum amount of additional employment land required.
Based on the land needs of current and prospective industries on
employment lands, it would not be unreasonable to suggest that
the amount of additional employment land required to meet the
20 year forecast for Durham Region will be considerably higher
DURHAM GROWTH PLAN IMPLEMENTATION STUDY - DRAFT PHASE 1 & 2 REPORT
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than calculated above. For example, a slight reduction in gross
density levels from 26 (Base Scenario) to 23 employees per gross
hectares would increase the Region's 20-year land need from 47
to 418 gross ha.
Under the assumptions applied in this analysis, the current supply
of developable regional employment land supply will not be
sufficient to meet Regional needs over the next 20 years. Over this
period, a range of 47 to 418 gross ha of additional employment
lands has been identified. Without an adequate supply of
designated employment lands, it will become increasingly difficult
for the Region of Durham to achieve the long-term employment
activity rate forecast, as per the Growth Plan, which notably is well
below the Region's long-term economic development objective of
50%.
MEETING THE GROWTH PLAN
DENSITY TARGETS
Intensification target of 40% development within the
built up area
The Growth Plan policies direct 40% of new development to areas
within the built-up area, where there is infrastructure in place to
accommodate the expected population and employment growth.
Within these areas, more compact or intensified development
is encouraged to occur predominantly in urban growth centres,
regional centres, major corridors, and transit station areas. The
intensification analysis results indicate that a rate of 30-35%
intensification can be met utilizing the Base Case Scenario.
Greenfield density target of 50 people and jobs/hectare
Based on the; Base Case Growth Scenario demand forecast, the
total gross population and job density on designated Greenfield
lands could be 48 people and jobs/hectare which is slightly
lower than the Growth Plan density target of 50 people and jobs/
hectare. The potential for future lower densities on employment
lands would have a significant impact the combined density target.
PRELIMINARY LAND
NEEDS ASSESSMENT
In each stream it is clear that given the market trends and
forecasts, each of the policy targets will be a challenge to acllieve_
An overview of tile analysis suggests the following:
. Within the built up area, the supply of intensification lands does
not meet the housing need that would be required to meet the
40% target. The results of the intensification analysis indicate a
deficit of 12,500 units within the built-up area.
. In Greenfield lands, the analysis indicates that there is a deficit
of 3,219 units and 2,081 gross hectares. The deficit is mainly
for low density residentIal units yet there is a surplus in medium
and high density land supply.
. The employment lands analysis identifies a shortfall for
employment lands by 47-418 gross hectares but in tllis case the
quality and character of the supply must be considered. Clearly
the deficit in employment lands, needs to be augmented with
a strategic understanding of the viability of lands and future
potential matched with infrastructure investments such as the
407 and key drivers such as UOIT.
At thiS stage of the study, the conclusions of each individual
stream cannot be summed toward a total land need. The
assumptions and interrelated implications of this work needs to
be balanced toward a comprehensive strategy to managing growth
in people and jobs over the course of the next 25 and 50 years.
URBAN STRATEGIES INC 5
PRELIMINARY DIRECTIONS
Based on the Phase I and 2 analysis of the Gro'Wth Plan
Implementation Study. several key preliminary directions are
proposed. These are based on a synopsis of the many levels of
analysis and exploration undertaken to date but will also be an
important departure point for the next phase of work, growth
scenario preparation and analysis.
These preliminary directions are as follows:
. .Positive levels of growth need to be directed to all of Durham's
communities. including Durham's northern communities, in
order to ensure their economic viability;
. The Region's overall residential land needs to 2031 are beyond
the supply of land within the current urban boundary;
. Meeting the Employment Forecasts and Participation Rates will
require strategic investment and additional employment lands;
. Meeting the Growth Plan density targets will require a more
urban development pattern than has historically existed in the
Region; and
. Growth also needs to be accommodated through the creation of
new growth nodes matched with supporting infrastructure.
In conclusion, the Initial Growth Analysis has created a strong
understanding of the existing regional context with regard to
growth and urban form. provided for the creation of a market
driven base case scenario for accommodating growth and
allowed the team to test the implications for Durham in terms
of conforming to the Growth Plan policy targets and provisions.
Clearly. the first phases work offers only preliminary directions on
how growth should be accommodated but it has provided a critical
foundation from which to depart to the next phases of work.
6
NEXT STEPS
This Draft Report is being considered by Regional Planning
Committee in January 2008. The first public meeting for the
Gro'Nth Plan Implementation Study will be held late January. The
input from these meetings and other outreach will be incorporated
into the Final Phase I and II report and will inform the next phase
of work.
The next phase of the Study is the Alternative Growth Scenario
Analysis. The alternative scenarios will be developed on the basis
of the principles and parameters drafted in Section 4. These
scenarios will then be built and tested to explore the implications
for Durham in terms of the regional structure, built form,
infrastructure and the related implications in conforming with the
Growth Plan targets.,
DURHAM GROWTH PLAN IMPLEMENTATION STUDY - DRAFT PHASE 1 & 2 REPORT
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