HomeMy WebLinkAboutPSD-077-05
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REPORT
PLANNING SERVICES
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Report #:
SPECIAL GENERAL PURPOSE AND ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE "'"
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Monday June 13,2005 G 9A- ~7-05
PSD-077 -05 File #: PLN 38.4.1 By-law #:
Meeting:
Date:
Subject:
COMMERCIAL POLICY REVIEW
AMENDMENT 43 TO THE CLARINGTON OFFICIAL PLAN
RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee
recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT the Commercial Policy Review - Final Report, the Addendum Market Analysis,
the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan Review Report and Staff
Report PSD-077-05 be received;
2.
THAT Official Plan Amendment 43 to the Clarington Official Plan as contained in
Attachment 4 to Report PSD-077 -05 be adopted and that the necessary by-law be
passed;
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3. THAT notice of Council's decision be forwarded to the Region of Durham and all
persons or bodies that requested notification of this decision.
Submitted by:
Reviewed by:
j"j In WU,
-U' Chief Administrative Officer
,(h'-.,
aVid J. Creme, M.C.I.P., R.P.P.
Director of Planning Services
DJC*SN*DF
June 9, 2005
CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPAI.lTY OF CLARINGTON
40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L1C 3A6 T (905)623-3379 F (905)623-083
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REPORT NO.: PSD-077-05
PAGE 2
1.0 Introduction
1.1 The Commercial Policy Review is the first component of the Review of the Clarington
Official Plan. It was initiated in response to development applications in the Bowmanville
West Main Central Area which could not be considered without a "comprehensive
review of the Official Plan".
1.2 The Municipality retained the firms of Meridian Planning Consulting Ltd, urbanMetrics
Inc., Brook Mcilroy Ltd. and Totten Sims Hubicki to undertake the work in consultation
with a staff team, collectively referred to as the Study Team.
1.3 The two major applications at the commencement of the Study were as follows:
. West Diamond Properties Inc.lPlayers Business Park Limited. (West Diamond!
Players), companies jointly controlled by Metrus Developments and the Kaitlin
Group, proposing to construct 33,070 sq. m. (356,000 sq. ft.) of f100rspace on the
north-west comer of Highway 2 and Green Road in a phased development.
. Halloway Holdings Ltd. (Holloway) proposing to construct 17,610 sq. m. (200,000
square feet) of fIoorspace on the north-east corner of Highway 2 and Green Road.
The two development proponents have contributed funds for the Municipality to
undertake the Study.
1.4 Public participation has been part of the Study process with the following activities
undertaken:
. A Community Stakeholder Group was established comprised of various members of
the community (Attachment 1). The Community Stakeholder Group met 5 times.
. Several open houses were advertised and held on the Commercial Policy Review.
. The consultants met with the Bowmanville BIA in September 2004.
. The consultants held a joint meeting with the Bowmanville BIA and the Community
Focus Groups established for the Orono and Bowmanville Community Improvement
Plans.
. A Workshop was held with residents and stakeholders on April 201tl with respect to
options and proposals for the Bowmanville West Main Central Area.
Feedback from stakeholders was provided along the way for both the Commercial
Policy Review and the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan Review.
This is documented in both reports.
1.5 Through the Study period, there were several changes in circumstance that required
additional consideration. The most significant was the application filed by A YT
Corporation (AYT) proposing to construct a 54,215 sq. m. (583,580 square ft.) big box
centre on a 21.85 ha site at the north-west corner of Highway 401 and Bennett Road.
The initial application included a Department Store and a Supermarket, which are no
longer included in their application. The amended A YT application tentatively comprises
a hotel, a warehouse merchandise club, a home improvement store, 9 large format
stores (20,000 sq. ft. each) and 7 restaurants. The AYT application will not be dealt
with explicitly in this report but wUl be the subject of a separate report.
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REPORT NO.: PSD-077-05
PAGE 3
2.0 Market Analysis
2.1 The draft Commercial Policy Review incorporated market research work undertaken by
urbanMetrics Inc. and Tate Economic Research. This was summarized in a report
entitled Clarington Commercial Policy Review Retail Market and Impact Analysis, dated
December 17,2004. The Addendum Market Analysis dated May 9,2005 was prepared
in part to consider the implications of the AYT application. It also refined the earlier
work to address:
. The proposed expansion of the Canadian Tire Store.
. The revised West DiamondlPlayers proposal not to phase Wal-mart and Loblaws.
. The Rona home improvement store on the T organ site.
. The potential for the proposed Loblaw's expansion on the Clarington Centre site for
another type of space.
The Addendum Market Analysis also included an estimate of the service space
required. The Addendum Market Analysis is contained in Attachment 3 to this Report.
2.2 The Addendum Market Analysis tested various alternatives for various projects
proceeding, either in whole or in a phased manner or with some alteration (e.g. no
Home Depot on the Holloway Holdings site). It also examined substituting the AYT
application for the West DiamondlPlayers proposal.
2.3 The market research has confirmed that there is significant opportunity for new space in
the market to meet population growth and to recapture expenditures currenUy leaving
the community. The recapture potential is particularly great in the Department Store and
Home Improvement Store categories, given the current expenditure pattern of
Clarington residents. It should be noted however, that recapture opportunities for a
Bowmanville location will be limited by several factors. FirsUy, Clarington does not
have, and will not have in the foreseeable future, a major enclosed regional centre like
the Oshawa Centre, with full-line department stores and other major retailers. The other
significant factor is that approximately twenty-five (25) % of the population of Clarington
lives in Courtice, which is on the border with the City of Oshawa, with a population that
predominanUy commutes to the west for work.
2.4 The new retail floorspace that would be warranted in Claringlon has been quantified
through the analysis of various scenarios, as follows:
2007 between 700,000 and 735.000 square feet
2010 between 850,000 and 875,000 square feet
2021 between 1,540,000 and 1,580,000 square feet
There is less opportunity for new floorspace after 2007 as it is assumed that the
recapture opportunities will have been exploited and further growth will be dependent on
population growth.
Unlike the earlier market research referred to above, which assumed no sales transfer
from existing stores, the Addendum Market Analysis assumed a 10% sales transfer
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REPORT NO.: PSD-077-05
PAGE 4
from existing stores, which the Municipality's consultant has deemed to be a
"reasonable" impact. The analysis also assumed that there would be new space
developed over the study period in other parts of the Municipality which have existing
designations or zoning pennissions for commercial development.
2.5 The Addendum Market Analysis also reviewed service and other select retail space
(liquor/beerlwine) to proVide a better estimate of the total f100rspace that would be
warranted over the study period. Using the per capita floor space ratios and assuming
a gradual increase over time from the existing 9.21 sq. ft. per capita, there is additional
service and select retail space warranted as follows:
2007 77,000 square feet
2010 150,000 square feet
2021 500,000 square feet
2.6 Conclusions
. There is opportunity for most of the proposed new retail and service space in the
West Bowmanville Main Central Area by 2010 assuming that the AYT site is not
developed during this period. This proVides for development to occur in other sites in
Clarington including the Torgan site, the Courtice Main Central Areas and limited
development in other locations.
. The Wal-mart and Loblaws stores on the West Diamond/Players site would be able
to proceed in a phased manner, with Phase 1 commencing immediately and the full
stores building out in 2010.
. There is room for two large format home improvement stores in the Clarington
market, based on the possibility of achieving a high recapture rate. With two stores
however, it would lead to lower sales perfonnance levels. If the Rona store
proceeds on the Torgan site, a second store could be considered somewhere else in
the Municipality.
. The A YT proposal would create much higher sales impacts on the East Bowmanville
Main Central Area than the West Diamond/Players site and would have very
significant short term sales impacts in certain categories. Even after 2010,
assuming that the other projects are approved and built, the incremental effect wouid
result in significant sales impacts on existing businesses over the longer term as
well.
3.0 Commercial Policy Review
3.1 The Draft Final Report on the Commercial Policy Review was completed in December
and provided for discussion purposes. The Final Report completed in May replaces the
Draft Final Report, having been updated with additional market analysis, feedback from
residents and businesses and further consideration by the Study Team.
In addition to the market component which is outlined above, there were urban design,
transportation and planning components which were included in the analysis.
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REPORT NO.: PSD-On-05
PAGE 5
3.2 Given its current commercial objectives and historical context, an approach which
combines a range of choice with the protection of the downtowns is recommended to
best serve Clarington's needs. An approach should be used which provides land use
designations and policies that meet market demands yet ensures the achievement of
the planned function objectives for the downtowns and the transportation/urban design
objectives for the key central areas. This necessary and essential connection between
the policy approach to market and the urban designltransportation objectives of
Clarington is perhaps the single most important conclusion of the Commercial Policy
Review.
3.3 Some of the more significant recommendations coming out of the Commercial Policy
Review are as follows:
. Most of the new space that is warranted should be accommodated within the
existing Bowmanville West Main Central Area and a proposed westerly expansion to
incorporate the West Diamond/Players lands, provided that land use, market, urban
design, and transportation issues are satisfactorily addressed.
. From an urban structure perspective the preferred policy approach is to concentrate
commercial uses in existing urban areas. The existing Central Areas are central to a
growing population and form .nodes. along Clarington's main street. Potential
commercial development should be focused, not dispersed. Among other things, it
will provide better opportunities for transit and an opportunity to create a strong
sense of place and identity.
. The .Central Area" nomenclature is dropped; Main Central Areas are referred to as
Town Centres or Village Centres. Town Centres are distinguished by being larger in
size, having a greater density and greater range of uses.
. The Bowmanville West Town Centre and the Bowmanville East Town Centre would
collectively function as a regional centre. While Bowmanville West Town Centre will
function as a developing centre able to accommodate larger stores within a
pedestrian-oriented grid street system, Bowmanville East Town Centre will continue
to function quite distinctively as a historic Downtown and East Business District
focusing on smaller-scale retail personal service and office uses.
. The Downtowns of Bowmanville, Newcastle Village and Orono are extremely
important historical resources that define the character of Clarington. The primary
reason for phasing the development of commercial floor space is to provide for the
ongoing health of the historic downtowns and to protect their planned function.
. Positive municipal policies, strategies and initiatives should be used to foster the
health of downtowns and should specifically provide for redevelopment and
intensification. The Municipality should investigate all means to encourage and
provide incentives for redevelopment and intensification.
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REPORT NO.: PSD-077-05
PAGE 6
. In new development areas, such as the Bowmanville West Town Centre, restrictions
on certain types of uses and retail store maximums and minimums may be imposed
to focus specialty retail and service uses in historic downtowns. At grade office uses
are an example offacilities that may be limited.
. Given the significant amount of space proposed to be developed or potentially
available through intensification in Bowmanvillle West Town Centre, phasing by
means of population thresholds is recommended.
. Local Central Areas and Neighbourhood Commercial Areas are to be combined into
the category of Neighbourhood Centres and provide for a range of centres between
500 and 5,000 square metres.
. Smaller commercial centres are redefined as Comer Stores and would be permitted
in Residential Areas through the rezoning process.
. The role of Highway Commercial Areas is retained.
. The Municipality should maintain the current prohibition of drive-throughs in historic
downtowns and extend it to appropriate adjacent areas. In other areas of the
Municipality, appropriate regulations should be enacted. There would be somewhat
different regulations in differing parts of the Municipality; Highway Commercial Areas
would be treated differenUy from Town or Village Centres.
. Service Station policies were reviewed and amended to ensure the location and
design of stations is consistent with the urban structure and design goals. There
would be recognition that there are prominent intersections which should preclude
gas stations primarily for urban design reasons where a gateway or corner treatment
is important.
. It is recommended that the policy which provides for the redesignation of industrial
lands for retail warehouses by amendment to the Official Plan be eliminated. The
only exception that could continue to be considered by amendment would be home
improvement centres.
. A key objective of the Official Plan to ensure that King StreeU Durham Highway 2
can maintain its function as a "main streer through Town and Village Centres is
confirmed and the development of a grid road system is critical to maintaining the
established vision and function.
. The importance of good urban design policies is reinforced and general urban
design guidelines were identified for new development areas and historic
downtowns.
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REPORT NO.: PSD-077-05
PAGE 7
4.0 Proposed Amendment 43
4.1 Proposed Amendment 43 incorporates the recommendations of the Commercial POlicy
Review. In certain instances, the initial recommendation needed to be refined as the
actual amendment was drafted. For example, the consolidation of Local Central Areas
with Neighbourhood Commercial Areas was appropriate in most circumstances.
However in the Port of Newcastle, it was deemed appropriate to create a separate
policy designation that was similar to the existing Local Central Area framework. It
provided for a greater mix of uses, retained the existing use permissions and amplified
the urban design policies for a better integration with the Tourism Node policies.
4.2 Proposed Amendment 43 also incorporates amendments to all of the existing
Secondary Plans (except for the Bowmanville West Main Central Area) to reflect the
changes to the Official Plan and incorporate other recommendations from the Study
Team.
4.3 The Courtice Main Central Area Draft Secondary Plan has not been addressed due to
time constraints. This matter will be addressed separately at a later date.
5.0 Conclusion
5.1 The Commercial Policy Review has undertaken a comprehensive examination of the
Municipality's approach to commercial planning. In general, a somewhat more flexible
approach is recommended with respect to the allocation of commercial floor space to
different centres across the Municipality. It will. allow the market to function to the extent
that it will benefit consumers but at the same time, provide for high quality urban
environments and create a sense of place.
It is recognized that historic downtowns are important to the Municipality's character and
identity. They are fragile and must be nurtured by positive municipal policies and
strategies to ensure their health and vitality and ongoing redevelopment. It is still
recommended that floor space thresholds linked to population growth be maintained for
the Bowmanville West Town Centre with modification to reflect the updated market
analysis.
5.2 Although most of the new space is recommended to occur in the Bowmanville West
Town Centre, there must be opportunities for other designated centres to develop in
accordance with their planned function and some space is provided for this purpose.
This includes the Highway Commercial District in Bowmanville and the Courtice Town
Centre, as well as a variety of Neighbourhood Centres. It is also important and prudent
to provide for future growth potential for ongoing redevelopment opportunities,
particularly for the Bowmanville East Town Centre, as provided for in Amendment No.
36. Again some new space is reserved for this purpose.
5.2 It is recommended that Council adopt proposed Amendment 43 to the Clarington
Official Plan.
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REPORT NO.: PSD-077-05
PAGE 8
Attachments:
Attachment 1 - Community Stakeholder Group
Attachment 2 - Commercial Policy Review - Final Report. May 30, 2005 (under separate
cover)
Attachment 3 - Addendum Market Analysis - Clarington Commercial Policy Review. May
2005 (under separate cover)
Attachment 4 - Amendment No. 44 to the Clarington Official Plan
Attachments listed under separate cover are available for review in the Clerks' Department.
List of interested parties to be advised of Council's decision:
Henry Joseph
Art Yasa
Ron Worboy
B. Westerman
Beth Kelly, Valiant Property Mgmt.
Bob Hann, Valiant Property Mgmt.
John Vanderkooi
Eileen Costello, Aird & Berlis LLP
Gwen Wallace
Lyn Townsend, Lynda Townsend-Renaud Law
Brent Clarkson, MHBC Planning Limited
Heather Muir
Carol Duffy
Bruce Curl
Jim and Suzanne Gregory
Stan Stein, Osler Hoskin & Harcourt
Todd Gibbon
Bill Humber
Linda Moore
Ron Hooper
George Kloos
Richard Lange
Leroy Clarke
Ted Watson
Hannu Halminen, Halminen Homes Limited
Jennifer Stone, This Week Newspapers
Brian O'Connor
Richard Marchant
David Butler, The Butler Group Inc.
Peter Smith, Bousfields Inc.
Bryce Jordan. G.M. Sernas Associates
Carmela Cupelli
Scott Houghton
Nancy Lewis
Maryann Fines
E.C. Braham
Sue Sedlak
N. Gummon
Otto Provenzano
S. Fraser
Bill Hinbert
Doug Finnson and Terri Bickwell-Potts
Duncan McPherson
Trevor Small
Ellen Cowan
Peter Vogel
Ray and Joyce Atkinson
Margaret Zwart
Ira Kagan, Kagan, Shastri, Barristers & Sol.
Brian Fraser .
Mark Rowe
Rudi Van Wijngaarden
Paul & Anne-Marie Halliday
John Huber
James Scarth
John and Lilian Bouma
B. Haines
Lilly T. Hinton
Mary-Ann Kalotai
Diane James
Costantine Bruno
Richard Rekker
Alan Vaillancourt
Mavis Carlton
Rick Hofstede
The Greater Toronto Transit
Robert DeGasperis, Metrus Properties Inc.
Yolanda Gjaltema
John & Lillian Bouma
Marvin Green, River Oaks Group
Kathy Pandell. Geoffrey L. Moore & Associates Ltd.
Marianne Zwyers
Lakeshore Group
Carmine Cupelli
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REPORT NO.: PsD-077-05
PAGE 9
George Ibanez
Lawrence Helllnga
R. Tukker
A. Sorg
Bryan MacLean
Linda Hallett and George loanidis
Doug Woods
Frank W. Lockhart
J. Sproatt
Mike Dome
Celeste Terry, Durham Regional Planning
Gail Rickard
James Vinson
Ian Smith
Anthony Tumbull
Evelyn Rosario
Suzanne McCrimmon, Clarington Board of Trade
Jim Russell
John Shewchuk, Royal LePage Frank Real Estate
Paul Wilson
Philip Brent
Peter Walker, Walker Nott Dragecivic Associates Limited
Steve Zakem, Aird & Berlis LLP
Scott Arbuckle, Planning & Engineering Initiatives Ltd.
David Crowell, A & P Properties Limited
Terry and Phyllis Price
Roslyn Houser, Goodmans LLP
Rick Gay, Gay Company Limited
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ATTACHMENT 1
Community Stakeholder Group
Anthony Turnbull Newcastle Village BIA
Bill Humber Resident
Bryce Jordan Valiant Property Representative
Celeste Terry Durham Regional Planning
Evelyn Rosario Orono BIA
Gail Rickard Resident
Gene Chartier Durham Regional Transportation
Ian Smith Courtice Business Group
James Vinson Resident
Don MacArthur Council Representative
Michael Patrick Clarington Board of Trade
Peter Smith Metrus Properties Representative
Ron Hooper Bowmanville BIA
Jim Schell Council Representative
Suzanne McCrimmon Clarington Board of Trade
Ted Watson Resident
Attachment 2 to PSD-077-05
Final Report
Clarington
Commercial Policy
Review
May 30, 2005
4
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
1. Introduction .......... ..... .......... ......................... ................ ..............1
1.1 Purpose of the Study............... ............. ...................................1
1.2 Planning Process. ...................................... ......... ........ ............2
2. Approaches to Commercial Planning ....................................................4
3. Market Impacts.............................................................................8
4. Transportation............................................................................ 13
5. Summary of Urban Design Issues and Principles...................................... 15
Major New Retail Development ........................................................ 15
6. Preferred Approach to Commercial Planning in Clarington......................... 18
Regional Official Plan Changes ......................................................... 22
7. Proposed Changes to the Commercial Policies.... .. .................... ............. 23
General Policies.......................................................................... 23
Central Areas and Commercial Areas.................................................. 23
8. Review of Applications .................................................................. 47
9. Summary and Conclusions............................................................... 49
Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Comparison of Options
Exhibit 2: Proposed Policy Changes
Appendix
Appendix 1: Summary of Written Comments
Supporting Reports (available under separate cover)
Context and Issues Report. Meridian Planning Consultants (October 2004)
Commercial Policy Review - Urban Design: Issues and Opportunities - Brook Mcilroy
(January 2005)
Cia ring ton Commercial Policy Review Retail Market and Impact Analysis
Municipality of Clarington, Ontario . urbanMetrics Inc. {Tate Economic Research
(December 2004)
Addendum Market Analysis' urbanMetrics Inc. (May 2005)
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MERIDIAN
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Executive Summary
Context
1. Council approved the undertaking of a Commercial Policy Review ("CPR") in
May of 2004. In addition to reviewing the overall commercial structure and
policy framework in Clarington, the CPR was also intended to address the
commercial applications in process in the context of the current policies and
recommended changes. A series of meetings and working sessions involving the
Community Stakeholder Advisory Group, the consulting team and staff have
been held.
2. The recommended approach provides land use designations and policies that
meet market demands yet ensure the achievement of the planned function
objectives for the downtowns, and the transportation and urban design
objectives for the key central areas.
3. The preferred approach to commercial planning in Clarington can be described
as one that will:
. integrate land use, urban design and transportation objectives;
. provide less restrictive commercial policies by creating a simplified
hierarchy;
. phase new development according to anticipated demand without
regard for the type of store;
. emphasize municipal initiatives to foster the health of the downtowns;
and,
. focus development in the urban centres.
Potential for Growth
4. Forecasted population growth in the Municipality of Clarington will result in
significant market growth creating the need for additional retail space to serve
this growth. By 2021, Clarington is expected to increase by some 35,800
persons.
5. Clarington residents are currently spending a significant portion of their retail
dollars outside of Clarington. There is an opportunity to recapture a portion of
these expenditures with new retail facilities in Clarington.
6.
The analyses of market opportunity (2005 Addendum Market Analysis report)
concludes that by 2010, at an average sales performance level of $325 per
square foot, additional retail space (excluding service space) in the 850,000 to
875,000 square foot range can be built in Clarington without causing undue
impacts on the existing commercial centres. This space estimate includes
reasonable levels of sales transfers from existing stores in Clarington of some
10%. By 2010, additional service space warranted in Clarington would be in the
150,000 square foot range, based on the results of the 2005 Addendum Market
Analysis.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
!'1l~IDJAM
i
May 3D, 2005
7. Thus, based on the warranted space estimates (Scenarios B-1 and B-2), in
addition to the proposed and committed retail space evaluated in the
Addendum Market Analysis report, excluding the AYT site, an additional
estimated 92,000 to 117,000 square feet would be warranted by 2010. By
2021, over 782,000 square feet of additional space would be warranted in
Clarington over and above proposed and committed space evaluated in the
Addendum 2005 report.
8. The Addendum Market Analysis concluded that the additional new retail space
to be added to the proposals in the Bowmanville West Main Central Area is
warranted by 2010 on the assumption that the proposed A YT site was not
developed during this time period.
9. It is proposed to continue the policy relationship between the anticipated
market demand and the amount of floor space available to the consumer. The
relationship will not make a distinction as to the type of floor space (food,
department store etc.) in order to allow the market to respond to consumer
preference and in recognition that there is becoming less and less distinction
among store types in the goods that are retailed, and a municipality's ability to
control what is sold in a store.
10. Given the significant amount of space proposed to be developed or potentially
available through intensification in the Bowmanville West Main Central Area
(BWMCA), it is recommended that, if needed, the Secondary Plan use a
population threshold to phase the development of new commercial floor space.
11. The current permission for a food store on the lands located at the southwest
corner of the intersection of Regional Road 57 and King Street was granted as
part of the OMB hearing over a decade ago. The site, use and store specific
permission has not been taken up. Given the time period and the underlying
office commercial permissions, it is recommended that the food store
permission be removed, continuing to allow for office commercial uses that
would contribute to the employment base, customer base and mixed use
nature of the area.
The Locations for Growth
12. From an urban structure perspective the preferred policy approach is to
concentrate commercial uses in existing urban areas. The existing Centres as
designated in the Official Plan are and will be central to the growing
population. In addition they form the 'nodes' along Clarington's main street, a
key element of the long term urban structure objectives. The potential
commercial development should be focused, not dispersed which, among other
things provides better opportunities for transit and an opportunity to create a
strong sense of place and identity. This approach is dependent upon, and
assumes the achievement of the land use, urban design and transportation
objectives of Clarington.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
I!' M E Rl~L~H
ii
May 30, 2005
13. As such the public authority to approve new commercial development in the
Municipality should be exercised in a manner that appropriately integrates the
land use, urban design and transportation considerations.
14. The Municipality may use a combination of the rezoning process and Holding
by-law provisions to implement the expansion and development of the BWMCA.
The Holding by-law may establish criteria related to:
. Conformity of the development with urban design policies; and,
. Securement of the necessary transportation infrastructure.
15. Consistent with the current Official Plan policy, other new Centres, expansions
to Centres or significant commercial areas should not be created over the
planning period and should only be considered through a comprehensive
planning process. For clarity, this would not prevent the designation of
additional Neighbourhood Centres as the result of neighbourhood planning
studies.
16. Bowmanville East and Bowmanville West Main Central Areas, to be renamed
Town Centres, are distinct parts of the larger Bowmanville Urban Area. They
currently serve, and should continue to serve, as the main focus of retail
facilities in Clarington. While Bowmanville West will function as a developing
centre able to accommodate larger stores within a pedestrian-oriented grid
street system, Bowmanville East will continue to function quite distinctively as
the historic Bowmanville Downtown and East Business District focusing on
smaller-scale retail, personal service and office uses. The Bowmanville East
Town Centre needs to have the opportunity for redevelopment, intensification
and infill.
17. The Downtowns of Bowmanville, Newcastle Village and Orono are extremely
important historical resources that define the character of Clarington. The
primary reason for phasing the development of commercial floor space in
Clarington is to provide for the ongoing health of the historic downtowns and to
protect their planned function. Positive municipal policies, strategies and
initiatives should be used to foster the health of the downtowns and should
specifically provide for appropriate redevelopment and intensification. The
Bowmanville East Main Central Area Secondary Plan prOVides sufficient
opportunity for redevelopment and intensification consistent with the planned
function for the area. The Municipality should also investigate all possible
means to encourage and provide incentives for redevelopment and
intensification in the area.
Transportation and Urban Design
18. It is a key objective of the Municipality to ensure that the Durham Highway
21King Street can maintain its function as a "main street" through the Town
and Village Centres and still provide an effective means of transport across the
Municipality.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
~j [lRl~MM
iii
May 30, 2005
19. The development of the grid road system is critical to maintaining the
established vision and function of King Street as a "main street" through the
Bowmanville West Main Central Area. The minor roads making up the grid allow
for flexibility in access and internal traffic circulation, and alternative routing
for local trips. When fully developed, the grid system will facilitate a
reduction in traffic demand along King Street, and specifically a potential
reduction in the turning movements at the signalized intersections.
20. The phasing and implementation of future transportation improvements in the
Bowmanville West Main Central Area are the subject of a comprehensive study
as part of the Secondary Plan review. A review should also be completed to
assess the residential area to the north through the Secondary Plan process
which is underway. In order to achieve the needed transportation
infrastructure and urban design objectives in the Bowmanville West Main
Central Area, certain transportation improvements must be constructed prior
to or concurrent with development.
21. The further development of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area and
Courtice Main Central Area should be designed in a comprehensive manner as
mixed-use Town Centres with high quality design incorporating common
features and design elements. The grid road network will be a key element in
achieving urban street blocks to accommodate pedestrian and vehicular traffic
and will create opportunities to incorporate common design elements along the
public road network.
22. Given the size of the Central Areas, different areas within them may receive
different land use and urban design treatments consistent with the urban
design vision, the functions of specific areas, transportation facility needs and
the surrounding context.
Policy Responses
23. Retail and service commercial uses in the Downtown are generally small in size
and serve more specialized markets. As such, restrictions on certain types of
specific uses and retail store size minimums or maximums may be imposed in
areas outside of downtowns in order to focus specialty retail uses and
government/office/administrative functions in the Downtowns. At grade office
uses are an example of facilities that Council may wish to direct to the more
pedestrian oriented areas in the historic downtowns.
24. Town and Village Centres, Neighbourhood Centres, Shopping Districts and
Highway Commercial Districts should have sufficient land areas designated with
boundaries provided for in the Secondary Plans to allow for additional retail
and service space development in the range of 1 million square feet of gross
leasable retail and service floor space. This growth could occur in the
designated areas and/or the expansion of the areas dependent on the
achievement of the urban structure objectives of the Municipality.
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25. Local Central Areas and Neighbourhood Commercial Areas are currently
designated by symbols on the Official Plan land use schedules with policies
outlining the range of sizes and types of uses permitted in the centres. Not all
of the designated areas have developed as the residential communities have
been built. Ten years ago there was great interest in smaller neighbourhood
centres but recently the Municipality has had applications to eliminate or
reduce the size of several centres. It is recommended that these designations
be combined into Neighbourhood Centres and that the commercial policies be
amended to provide for a general range of sizes for the centres without the
need for site-specific restrictions. The smallest centres would be redefined as
corner stores and would be permitted in Residential Areas through the zoning
process.
26. There are currently five Highway Commercial Areas designated by the Plan.
The experience over the past decade suggests that the Courtice Highway
Commercial Areas may not be warranted due to competitive pressures from
centres in Oshawa and Whitby and due to difficulties in redeveloping the
existing industrial lands.
27. Drive-through establishments have become increasingly popular but have
resulted in impacts on roads and the pedestrian environment and they have
compatibility issues with surrounding residential areas. This matter was
studied to a great extent in the Municipality's Bowmanville King Street East
Corridor Study, which recommended regulations for that area. The
Municipality should maintain the current prohibition of drive-throughs in the
historic downtowns and extend it to appropriate, adjacent areas. The
Municipality should also implement appropriate regulations for other areas of
the Municipality recognizing that different areas may require different
treatments.
28. A review of the policies for service stations was also undertaken. Revisions are
proposed to ensure the location and design of stations is consistent with the
urban structure and design goals of the Official Plan.
29. A further session with the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group was held in
mid January 2005 to obtain comments and further input into the
recommendations contained in the draft report. An open house was also held to
present the report findings and recommendations and obtain input from the
general public. The public who attended the sessions raised concerns about the
amount of growth proposed for the Municipality. Many wanted to ensure that
the impacts of new commercial growth were minimized and that the growth
was phased and carefully designed. Most felt that new commercial growth
should be focused and not dispersed. There was a general wish that the
character of new retail development should reflect the form and character of
Bowmanville rather than give the appearance of typical commercial uses and
areas.
30. An open house on the future of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area
(BWMCA) was held on April 20, 2005. Approximately 100 residents, business
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owners and developer's representatives attended. Community concerns was
noted with respect to the character of the BWMCA. There was widespread
support for creating a town centre with a high quality public realm, which was
pedestrian-friendly and transit-supportive with strong architectural and site
plan controls on large format retail uses.
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1. INTRODUCTION
The Clarington Official Plan was approved in October 1996. Since that time retailing in
Ontario has continued to change and traditional planning policies have been
challenged with the advent of large format stores, the establishment of Wal.Mart in
Canada and the continuing trend for automotive, department, drug stores and food
stores to carry a much broader variety of retail goods.
Section 23.1.5 of the Clarington Official Plan directs that a review of the Official Plan
must take place at least once every five years to consider the need for a complete
review of the Official Plan. Currently, there are also a number of commercial
development proposals that will impact on the community and the commercial
planning framework. In order to properly address commercial planning in Clarington,
Council approved the undertaking of a Commercial Policy Review ("CPR") in May of
2004.
In addition to the CPR, a further study has been commenced to address updates and
revisions to the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan. Several of the
recommendations from this report will also be implemented through the Bowmanville
West Main Central Area Secondary Plan.
1.1 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
The CPR was intended to address the following:
. Is the overall commercial structure and policy framework in Clarington
appropriate and what, if anything, needs to be changed?
. What key principles should be used in the planning, design and
implementation of commercial and central areas?
. How can the historic downtown areas in Bowmanville, Newcastle and Orono
remain vibrant if there is an increase in commercial floorspace in their
respective markets?
. Should the retail floors pace thresholds in the Bowmanville West Main
Central Area Secondary Plan be maintained, modified or deleted?
. What transportation infrastructure is needed to support commercial areas
and how can the Main Street function of Central Areas be implemented?
. What Smart Growth and built form principles should be incorporated in the
development of commercial and Central Areas?
. What should the planned function of the Bowmanville East Main Central
Area and the Bowmanville West Main Central Area in Clarington's
commercial hierarchy be?
. Are further policies necessary to ensure the vitality of existing and
proposed Central Areas?
What, if any, adjustments are required to the existing commercial policy
hierarchies?
The CPR was also intended to address the commercial applications in process in the
context of the current policies and recommended changes.
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1.2 PLANNING PROCESS
The CPR work program was divided into three phases: Backgraund Research, Analysis
and Final Report and Recommendations. Throughout the process a series of meetings
and working sessions involving the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group, the
consulting team and staff were held. The Community Stakeholder Advisory Group
consists of members of the public, representatives from the local BIA's, and
representatives for various landowners. The consulting team is led by Meridian
Planning Consultants Inc. (planning), with assistance from Brooke Mcilroy (urban
design), Totten Sims Hubicki (TSH) (transportation), and urbanMetrics and Tate
Economic Research (market impact).
Background Research
The background research phase of the CPR involved a review of a number of
commercial policy issues as well as an analysis of the commercial development and
policy context for Clarington. The background research was compiled into a report
entitled "Context and Issues Report - Clarington Commercial Policy Review". The
report provided a general overview of the evolution of commercial uses and policy, a
description of Clarington's commercial facilities and functions, an examination of the
existing planning and urban design context, an analysis of the market and
transportation context, and a discussion of the options and issues surrounding the
regulation of commercial development in Ontario. The report also provided a number
of findings to be further considered as part of the analysis phase of the CPR.
Completion of Reports and Consultation
During the background research phase of the CPR, a series of public consultations were
held. Meetings with the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group were held on June 21,
2004 and October 27, 2004. At the June 21, 2004 meeting an overview of the
background planning and market information was presented and the group was
provided with an opportunity to discuss issues and concerns.
On September 14, 2004, a workshop was held with the BIA to discuss the CPR in
relation to the Community Improvement Plans being undertaken in their respective
downtowns as well as to discuss general commercial planning issues.
On October 27, 2004, the Context and Issues Report was presented together with
alternative options for commercial planning to the Community Stakeholder Advisory
Group. The group provided comments on the alternative options.
The Draft Final Report: Recommended Policy Changes Clar/ngton Commercial Policy
Review dated December 17, 2004 was prepared by Meridian Planning Consultants Inc.
The draft final report presented the conclusions of the analysis of the current policies
and commercial structure, reviewed the alternative approaches and the recommended
changes to the commercial land use designations and policies in the Official Plan. The
recommendations also addressed the proposed commercial development applications.
Accompanying the report were separate documents dealing with the market analysis
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and urban design recommendations. The draft final report was circulated for
discussion and comment.
A further session with the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group and an Open House
was held on January 13, 2005. The purpose of the Open House and Community
Stakeholder Advisory Group meeting was to present the draft report findings and
recommendations and obtain input from the general public.
A further open house/workshop was held on April 20, 2005 to review proposals,
including an possible expansion, in the Bowmanville West Main Central Area. The
workshop was well attended and provided valuable input for the Secondary Plan
Review, which is the subject of a separate report.
This document, the Final Report, replaces the Draft Final Report and presents the
conclusions and recommendations resulting from the review. A series of comments
were provided through the consultative process and several written submissions were
also received. A summary of the written comments with responses to the issues raised
is attached to this report as Appendix 1.
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2. APPROACHES TO COMMERCIAL PLANNING
The current goals of the Official Plan with respect to Central Areas and commercial
uses are to:
. develop the Central Areas as the focal points of economic, residential,
social and cultural activities for the various communities within Clarington;
. provide for other types of specialized commercial uses to meet the needs of
residents; and,
. to respond to and accommodate new trends in the commercial sector and
direct them to appropriate locations.
Through the CPR consultations and background work, it is clear that these goals
remain very relevant. The Plan should continue to ensure that there are a variety of
locations for commercial uses to allow the market function in providing a range of
choice for local consumers. The Official Plan should also continue to protect and
foster the role of the historic downtown areas. The largest urban centre in Clarington,
the grouping of Bowmanville West, the historic Bowmanville Downtown and the East
Business District, has the opportunity to function as a regional centre. While this may
be recognized in the Official Plan at some point in the future, the current functional
distinction in the Plan should remain.
Three alternative approaches to commercial planning were presented as part of the
Context and Issues Report at the Community Stakeholder Advisory Group session on
October 27, 2004. The alternative approaches represented a reasonable range of
choice available to the Municipality given the current planning framework. Two of the
options were reflective of either end of the regulatory spectrum; one being the most
restrictive, controlled approach and the other being a very general, non-regulatory
approach. The option originally entitled "protecting the downtown" was meant to
represent an option in the middle which within itself could have a range of options and
implications.
The planning controls available under the Planning Act to implement commercial
policy include the following:
use permissions by land use and store type (e.g. food, department store);
limits or caps on the size (floor space or land area) of various centres;
limits on the size (floor space) of individual stores; and,
limits on the amount and types of floor space (e.g. food, department
store) .
These limits or caps can also be implemented in a phased manner by linking the
amount of land or floor space to population thresholds. This is done to match the
demand or anticipated market with the supply of commercial floor space. Reports on
the anticipated supply and demand for commercial space to the year 2021 prepared by
urbanMetrics Inc_ are provided under separate cover and summarized in Section 3 of
this report.
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Each option is generally described below with an example of how and where it is
presently utilized. The options are then assessed based on the implications they
present in relation to land use, the market and transportation. The options are
described as the controlled hierarchy, maximum range of choice and flexible controls.
Controlled Hierarchy
The controlled hierarchy option/approach would mean that the current structure and
content of policies in the Official Plan would continue and could in fact be more
restrictive. The approach establishes a fairly tightly defined planned function for each
commercial area and uses controls on the amount and type of floor space to both
permit and protect the planned functions.
This option requires limits on the amount of commercial gross leasable area which can
be developed by type of floor space (department store type merchandise (DSTM),
other retail space, food space etc.) based on thresholds and caps as well as very
specific use permissions, essentially matching the anticipated demand by store type
with the use permission and maximum sizes. This approach also requires the need for
market studies to assess market impact in regard to new commercial development
proposals over a certain size (currently 2,500 square metres is utilized in the
Clarington Official Plan) to ensure the supply and demand equation continues to be
balanced.
Maximum Range of Choice
The maximum range of choice option/approach generally designates more land than is
needed to meet market needs in order to provide the opportunity for a full range of
commercial uses. The intent is to encourage a high degree of competition and
consequent choice for consumers. Lands with suitable characteristics for a complete
range of uses and building sizes are made available in locations that can adequately be
serviced, with good transportation facilities and with little or no impacts on adjacent
uses. No market studies are required and no action is taken to preclude a reasonable
degree of competition among commercial uses. This approach would require the
removal of any restrictions on size from the Official Plan. It also generally describes
commercial uses in categories which are very broad in terms of the types of uses
permitted.
Flexible Control
The public interest in using controls on the amount of commercial floor space in
Clarington is primarily related to the protection of the role and function of the historic
downtowns. The third option/approach would provide for some controls based on the
market demand with phasing to control the amount and type of development at any
one time, with some horizon year identified. The timeframe could be the five.year
period prior to another Official Plan Review or a longer period of time. This third
option/approach could have the objective of fostering the planned function of the
downtown areas by limiting the amount of new commercial development within a
specified time period (based on market analysis), essentially continuing to match the
potential commercial development areas with growth in the population. This
Commercial Policy Review /, 5
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option/approach could also require market studies to ensure the planned function of a
commercial centre and/or downtowns was maintained.
Exhibit 1, Comparison of Options, provides a comparative review of these policy
approaches.
Given its current commercial objectives and historical context, an approach which
combines a range of choice with the protection of the downtowns would best serve
Clarington's needs. An approach should be used which provides land use designations
and policies that meets market demands yet ensures the achievement of the planned
function objectives for the downtowns and the transportation/urban design objectives
for the key central areas. This necessary and essential connection between the policy
approach to market and the urban design/transportation objectives of Clarington is
perhaps the single most important conclusion of the Commercial Policy Review. The
public authority to approve new commercial development in the Municipality should
be exercised in a manner that completely integrates the market, urban design and
transportation issues.
This approach is consistent with and supportive of the concerns expressed by the
public at the workshop held in April to review urban design issues in Bowmanville
West. While the need for additional retail facilities was generally accepted and
recognized there was no willingness to compromise on the development of a
pedestrian-oriented centre in order to attract new retail uses. The urban design
principles to be applied in the decision-making process are outlined later in this report
and further detailed in the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan
Review Report.
It is proposed to continue the policy relationship between the anticipated market
demand and the amount of floor space available to the consumer. The relationship
will not make a distinction as to the type of floor space (food, department store etc.)
for several reasons. First, without a policy restriction the market place can best
respond to consumer preference. Second, there is becoming less and less distinction
among store types in the goods that are retailed. Food can be bought at a Wal-Mart,
televisions at a Loblaws and both at a Canadian Tire. Finally, the flexibility inherent
in not defining different forms of retail use means the market place can respond to
Clarington's consumer needs within the framework of a commercial policy structure
that achieves the broader urban structure objectives. While individual users may
change, the concentration of retail uses in the Municipality's key urban centres will
remain.
The initial market analysis (December 2004 report) determined that the proposed
amount of floor space evaluated at that time could be developed over the next five
years without significant impact on existing uses or planned centres. Based on the
Addendum Market Analysis and the concerns raised about the amount of growth to
proceed in the Bowmanville West Main Central Area, a maximum floor space for that
area has been recommended.
Commercial Policy Review
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May 30, 2005
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3. MARKET IMPACTS
urbanMetrics Inc. and Tate Economic Research Inc. prepared a retail market demand
and impact analysis for the Municipality of Clarington as input to the Clarington
Commercial PoLicy Review. The detailed background research is included in a
document entitled "Clarington Commercial Policy Review, Background Data,
Municipality of Clarington", dated August 20, 2004 and the full report entitled
"Clarington Commercial Policy Review Retail Market and Impact Analysis Municipality
of Clarington, Ontario", dated December 17, 2004, is also available under separate
cover. Subsequent to these reports, an Addendum Market Analysis, dated May 4,
2005, was prepared by urbanMetrics to evaluate additional applications submitted to
the Town for commercial development since the initial market analysis was completed
as well as estimate additional warranted service space for Clarington.
Planning policy attempts to provide a range and breadth of choice to consumers, at
easily accessible locations that cause little or no impact on the existing key centres.
Planning also attempts to ensure that these locations do not negatively impact
adjacent uses as a result of traffic or other site-related conditions. The number,
location and size of commercial uses are a function of the market for such uses and
the Municipality's planning objectives. Market analyses provide a general guideline to
determine how much land should be available in a community to provide floor space
for consumer goods.
It is necessary to know the nature and scale of the need for additional retail/service
space in order to consider and understand how new commercial facilities might best
be located to serve the anticipated market . both inside and outside of the
Municipality. This information is needed both in order to understand the current
strengths and weaknesses of the Municipality's existing retail/service structure and to
determine the additional space that will be needed to serve future residents within
the Municipality's trade area.
The basic approach adopted in the market analysis is similar to that used in numerous
other commercial policy review market studies across Ontario for many years,
employing both quantitative and qualitative assessments. The initial task is to assess
the current and future demand by major retail category in the Municipality. The
increase in future demand over the base year demand, created through market
growth, real growth and recapture opportunities, is then defined as the 'residual
potential' .
The total sales potential available for various retail categories in the Municipality,
calculated based on the residual potential and inflow sales opportunities from outside
the Municipality, is converted into estimates of 'warranted' additional space (meaning
needed to serve the market). This calculation uses expected average sales per square
foot productivity factors in order to determine the additional space needed.
Additional analyses are then undertaken to understand the impact of new retail space
on the sales per square foot of existing retail store types in the Municipality.
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May 30, 2005
Additional Warranted Space Analysis
The December 2004 market analysis has included estimates of additional warranted
space for six major retail store types, including: non.department store DSTM
(department store type merchandise), department store DSTM, supermarket,
grocery/specialty food stores, home improvement and home ft automotive.
A significant conclusion of the background work was that a very large percentage of
Clarington residents' shopping dollars are spent outside of the Municipality. The
opportunity to 'recapture' a portion of these sales provides the potential for growth in
the retail space in Clarington without any need for population growth in Clarington.
A number of scenarios have been evaluated, as detailed in Appendix A to the
December 17, 2004 main market report, and as outlined below:
Scenario A - Market Growth Only - This scenario was included to determine the
future market opportunities in Clarington based on market growth and real growth
only with the assumption made that inflow from consumers living outside of
Clarington equates to outflow sales. Even without an increase in recapture from
outside of Clarington, a significant amount of retail space could be accommodated
in Clarington in future years. For example, by 2010, additional non. department
store DSTM space warranted in Clarington would amount to 208,000 square feet, at
an average sales per square foot level of $275. Total selected retail space
warranted amounts to approximately 400,000 square feet by 2010 at an average
sales per square foot of $330 (excluding any additional sales transfers from existing
stores in Clarington).
Scenario B - Base (used for the impact analysis) . This scenario assumes an
opportunity for some recapture of Clarington residents' expenditures currently
being captured by retail facilities outside of Clarington if certain additional
commercial development occurs in Clarington. Based on the assumptions in this
scenario, additional non-department store DSTM space warranted in Clarington by
2010 (excluding any additional sales transfers from existing stores in Clarington)
would approximate 400,000 square feet (at $275 per square foot), with total
selected retail space evaluated amounting to about 720,000 square feet (at an
average of $325 per square foot) of additional space.
Scenario C - Higher Recapture. This scenario reflects higher or more aggressive
assumptions regarding recapture opportunities from outside of Clarington. In this
scenario, the opportunity for additional retail space within Clarington is higher.
For example, non-department store DSTM space warranted would amount to
473,000 square feet by 2010 at $275 per square foot, with some 852,000 square
feet of total additional retail space warranted at $325 per square foot (excluding
any additional sales transfers from existing stores in Clarington).
In the 2005 Addendum Market Analysis, additional scenarios were evaluated to
reflect additional proposed space and the opportunities for increased recapture (in
comparison to Scenario B in the 2004 market analysis). The results of this updated
warranted space analysis (Scenario's B-1 and B.2) indicate that by 2010, some
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766,800 to 790,000 square feet of total additional retail space would be warranted
(excluding sales transfers). With an assumed reasonable level of sales transfer
from existing retail stores in Clarington added of 10%, additional retail space in the
850,000 to 875,000 range would be warranted by 2010.
Impact Analysis
In addition to the calculation of warranted space, a detailed impact analysis was
undertaken in the 2004 Market Analysis based on Scenario B assumptions. The impact
analysis assumes the following major retail proposals in Clarington with a first full year
of opening in 2007:
. West Diamond a Players site - Relocated Loblaws supermarket from
Clarington Centre, proposed Wal-Mart department store and ancillary retail
and service uses (Phase 1 only).
. Valiant Properties - Expansion of Clarington Centre Zellers store and re-
tenanting of former Loblaws space.
. Halloway Holdings Limited. Proposed Home Depot store and ancillary retail
space.
. Valiant Properties - Courtice Main Central Area
. Torgan Group. Proposed retail centre development (DSTM component).
A number of other retail commercial applications in Bowmanville and Newcastle
Village that would be more local serving have also been included in the analysis. The
Scenario B analysis assumes that all of this proposed/designated retail space would
open in 2006, with a first full year of operation in 2007.
In addition to Scenario B, the Addendum Market Analysis report included six other
scenarios (Scenario D-1 to D.6) to include other proposals not previously evaluated in
Scenario B. The proposals not evaluated in the December 17, 2004 market report
include:
. Clarington Place. expansion of the existing Canadian Tire store by some
15,200 square feet, which is permitted under the existing zoning.
. West Diamond and Players site - Phase 2 expansion of Loblaws (21,300
square feet) and the Wal.Mart (40,000 square feet).
. Torgan . addition of a Rona home improvement centre, with a potential
Phase 2 expansion.
. The A YT proposal, which in addition to restaurant space and a hotel,
includes a warehouse membership club (145,300 sq. ft.), a home
improvement centre (80,700 sq.ft.), and CRU space of some 226,600 square
feet.
. Clarington Centre. the potential for the expansion of the centre by some
37,700 square feet.
The market study included impact analyses which evaluated the overall potential sales
impacts of the proposed/designated space on all supermarkets, home a auto stores,
home improvement stores, department stores and other DSTM stores in Clarington.
The Scenario B analysis assumes that all of the proposed/designated space would have
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a first full year of operation in 2007. The Addendum analysis includes additional space
that has been phased over the 2007 to 2013 period. A directional impact analysis has
also been undertaken to determine sales impacts on Bowmanville Mall, other
Bowmanville East Main Central Area including the historic downtown, Bowmanville
West Main Central Area, other Bowmanville, as well as east and west Clarington.
Market Growth and Recapture Opportunities Exist that will Support
Additional Retail and Service Space in Clarington
The following summarizes the results of the Retail Market and Impact Analysis Report,
together with the Addendum Report:
1. Forecast population growth in the Municipality of Clarington will result in
significant market growth creating the need for additional retail and service
space to serve this growth. By 2021, Clarington is expected to increase by
some 35,800 persons.
2. Clarington residents are currently spending a significant portion of their retail
dollars outside of Clarington, and particularly in other Durham Region
communities, such as Oshawa. As such, there is a significant opportunity to
recapture a portion of these expenditures with the addition of new retail
facilities in Clarington. The table below illustrates the percentage and volume
of expenditures that Clarington residents currently make at selected major
store types outside Clarington.
Category
Percentage of
Clarington Residents'
Expenditures Made In
Clarington
66.9%
17.0%
34.2%
Clarington Residents'
Expenditures Outside
Clarington (2003 $)
Supermarket
Department Store
Non-Department
Store DSTM
Home
Improvement
$38.3 million
$62.5 million
$137.4 million
12.3%
$15.9 million
All proposed retail space, as evaluated in Scenario B, could be developed by 2007 with
additional opportunities for other space in the future. This would include space on
other existing designated sites in Clarington (e.g. in Courtice) as well as the
opportunity for expansion of existing proposed sites.
3. Non-Department Store DSTM Analvsis . The Scenario B analysis indicates that all
the proposed non-department store DSTM space evaluated in the December
2004 market analysis (354,100 square feet) could be developed by 2007,
without critical impacts on the existing space or designated sites within
Clarington. Based on the Addendum analysis Scenario D.l, which in addition
to the space evaluated in Scenario B, includes a Phase 2 expansion of the
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proposed Loblaws on the West Diamond/Players site and the expansion of
Clarington Centre for DSTM uses, all of this space could not be developed by
2007. As such, some phasing of development would be required, with a full
build out of this space likely warranted by 2010. If the A YT project were
added, in addition to the space evaluated in Scenarios Band 0.1, the
incremental affect of this development would result in significant sales impacts
for existing space over the 2007 to 2016 period evaluated.
4. Department Store Analvsis . The Scenario B analysis indicates that the proposed
Wal-Mart (Phase 1) or a similar facility, achieving a sales per square foot level
of $410, could proceed by 2007 without critical impacts on the existing Zellers
department store in Clarington Centre. Based on the Addendum analysis
Scenario 0.1, a Phase 2 expansion of the Wal-Mart, assuming lower sales
performance levels, could be supported by 2010.
5. Supermarket Analvsis - The analysis indicates that the proposed Loblaws
relocation and expansion (Phase 1) or a similar facility could proceed by 2007
without critical sales impacts on existing supermarkets in Clarington. Assuming
the proposed Phase 2 expansion of the Loblaws would include primarily DSTM,
based on the assumptions in the Addendum analysis Scenario 0-1, the
expansion could be accommodated by 2010.
6. Home Improvement Centre - One home improvement centre can proceed by
2007, without impacts on existing retailers in Clarington. As detailed in the
Addendum analysis, if two home improvement centres were to be developed in
the short term, it is likely that they would impact each other resulting in lower
sales performance levels. As such, it is not expected that the impacts of two
such stores would be significantly greater than one store given the limited
facilities in Clarington at the present time.
Overall, the analysis indicates that there are significant retail development
opportunities within the Municipality of Clarington, although there is a limit as to how
much could be developed in the community. The addition of new retail space in
Clarington will allow Clarington residents to shop locally and will increase the strength
and convenience of the retail environment within the Municipality. In addition to
retail space, the Addendum Market Analysis has indicated that additional service
space (e.g. personal services, financial services, restaurant space, professional
services etc.) is also warranted in Clarington to support the local population growth.
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4. TRANSPORTATIQN
The CPR has established that significant additional retail development can be
accommodated in Clarington. As retail commercial growth occurs it will be critical to
ensure that transportation network capacity can accommodate new growth in an
efficient manner. This approach will require phasing given the likely time period for
development.
Much of the commercial growth is to be directed to the key urban areas. It is a key
objective of the Municipality of Clarington to ensure that the Durham Highway 21King
Street can maintain its function as a "main street" though the Centres and still
provide an effective means of transport across the Municipality.
A key growth area will be the Bowmanville West Main Central Area. Currently the
development in this area includes major retail uses such as Canadian Tire, Zellers,
Loblaws, ancillary retail uses, restaurants, a cinema, a fire station, and a recreation
complex. The current proposals for development in the area have been for large
format retail stores (i.e., big box development) that are primarily focussed on the King
Street (Highway 2) corridor.
This form of land use is auto dependent and will require improvements to the road
network serving this area which would also accommodate bus routes and support
higher levels of transit use.
Within the Bowmanville West Main Central Area, the transportation infrastructure
required to support continued growth includes intersection improvements along King
Street, including signalization at Boswell Drive and Green Road, and the completion of
various links that form a grid road network. The internal roads that are currently
planned to complete the grid include the extensions of Uptown Avenue, Clarington
Boulevard, Prince William Boulevard, and Boswell Drive, and the construction of
Brookhill Boulevard. This has been reviewed further in the Secondary Plan update.
The development of the grid road system is critical to maintaining the established
vision and function of King Street as a "main street" through the West Bowmanville
Main Central Area. The minor roads making up the grid allow for flexibility in access
and internal traffic circulation, and alternative routing for local trips. When fully
developed, the grid system will facilitate a reduction in traffic demand along King
Street, and specifically a potential reduction in the turning movements at the
signalized intersections.
It is expected that the grid will allow King Street to continue to function as a four lane
facility with conventional intersection lane arrangements, and provide for both
commuter traffic and turning movement traffic generated by the existing and future
West Bowmanville developments. Without the grid system, it is anticipated that King
Street would eventually require a general widening to six basic lanes, and signalized
intersections would eventually require dual turn lanes to accommodate the traffic
demand associated with the proposed development levels. The latter type of
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improvements would be contrary to the "main street" VISIon, and would not be
consistent with the urban design features currently in place and those proposed.
The phasing and implementation of future transportation improvements in the
Bowmanville West Main Central Area was addressed in a strategic transportation
review. The strategic review was based on information contained in the TSH study,
"Urban Design Plan for the West Bowmanville Gateway, Traffic Component, Draft
Report, December 18, 1998", traffic impact studies undertaken by others in 2004 on
behalf of West Diamond Properties Inc./Players Business Park Ltd. and Valiant
Property Management, and discussions with the Municipality and project team
regarding local area development.
The strategic review of transportation requirements considered the residential areas
to the north and south of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area, and the need to
provide alternative routes to complement the major arterial roads. The north-south
grid road links extend from the Bowmanville West area into the northerly areas and
intersect with the proposed Brookhill Boulevard and the planned extension of
Longworth Avenue. Longworth Avenue is significant in that it is a major east. west
collector in the Bowmanville road network, and its extension from Scugog Street
westerly to Green Road is expected to prOVide relief to the King Street corridor. The
extension of Green Road southerly to Baseline Road will provide an important
connection to the adjacent residential development, as well as providing an
alternative to Martin Road.
The strategic transportation review also considered linkages between the commercial
and residential areas, future transit service and routing, emergency access, school
transportation requirements, and the desired flexibility in route choice for commercial
and residential traffic. Addressing those transportation requirements in a system
context, has confirmed and defined the role and function of King Street as a "main
street" according to the vision established by the Official Plan.
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5. SUMMARY OF ,URBAN DESIGN ISSUES AND PRINCIPLES
The Urban Design Issues and Oppartunities Report, issued under separate cover, noted
that the existing Clarington Official Plan and Secondary Plans provide some good urban
design gUidelines which have been the result of previous studies and staff
recommendations. It is recommended that additional general urban design guidelines
be considered for the Official Plan as part of the CPR recommendations with more
detailed guidelines being developed through the Bowmanville West Main Central Area
Secondary Plan process.
The following text provides urban design criteria that should be considered for large
format retail and the historic downtown/transition areas. These guidelines are
intended to provide a framework for revisions to the Official Plan policies dealing with
general urban design objectives and policies.
Major New Retail Development
The further development of Bowmanville West Town Centre and Courtice Town Centre
should be designed in a comprehensive manner such that the area is connected by
common features and design elements. The grid road network will be a key element in
achieving urban street blocks to accommodate pedestrian and vehicular traffic and
will create opportunities to incorporate common design elements along the public
road network. Other common elements which should be considered for the area should
include building heights, fa~ade treatments, setbacks, pedestrian infrastructure and
streetscaping.
It is also recognized that given the size of the Main Central Areas, different areas
within them may receive different design treatments consistent with the urban design
vision, the functions of specific areas and the surrounding context. For example,
Clarington Boulevard is an area for high quality pedestrian retail environment with
specific fa~ade, and streetscape treatment required. Smaller retail units with
appropriate building form will be important to further animate the street and provide
a link to the residential areas and high school to the north.
Parking areas should also be developed in a consistent manner and be broken up to
avoid large tracts of parking lots. Edging and entrance features should be strong and
provide a sense of place so that the public knows they are in the Bowmanville West
and Courtice Town Centre areas. This identity can be further enhanced by an amenity
or architectural feature for the area such as a clock tower or public square.
Urban design guidelines to be used in considering the development of large format
retail developments should also include the following:
Facades
. Excessively long facades should incorporate recesses and projections along
a minimum specified percentage of the length of the facade.
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. Where the fa'Yade abuts a public street, windows, awnings, and arcades
should total a minimum percentage of the facade length.
. Principal building entrances should be highly visible with features such as
canopies or porticos, arcades, and landscaping.
. Predominant exterior building materials should be of high quality materials
such as brick, wood, or sandstone. Concrete block panels or pre-fabricated
steel panels should not be permitted as the predominant exterior building
materials.
. Exterior materials should be varied in colour and texture where appropriate
to provide architectural interest.
Setbacks
. The maximum setback of some buildings to a public or private street should
be minimized and minimum and maximum distances should be specified.
. Community amenities such as a seating area, water feature or public art
installation should be provided within setbacks to a public street or at
specified locations within parking areas.
Pedestrian Infrastructure Ii: Streetscaping
. Sidewalks should be provided on both sides of all adjacent public streets to
facilitate pedestrian movement and access.
. A continuous internal pedestrian walkway should be provided from the
perimeter public sidewalk to the principal customer entrances. This
internal walkway should feature landscaping, benches, and pedestrian
scaled lighting.
. Sidewalks should be provided along the full length of the building along any
facade featuring a customer entrance and along any facade abutting public
parking areas.
. Internal pedestrian walkways should provide a weather protection feature
such as an awning within a minimum specified distance of all customer
entrances.
. Internal pedestrian walkways should be distinguished from driving surfaces
through the use of special paving, bricks, or stamped concrete to enhance
pedestrian safety and the attractiveness of the walkways.
Parking Areas
. Off. street parking spaces located between the front facade of the principal
building and the primary abutting street should be minimized to reduce the
visual impact of large format parking areas.
. Parking areas should incorporate pedestrian walkways to enable safe and
direct movement to principal customer entrances.
. Landscaping planters and modules should be located at each end a row of
parking spaces_
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Historic Downtowns
. Development in the historic Downtown areas should be encouraged to meet
design criteria that emphasis the character of the Downtown. Most
Downtown development will occur through infill and intensification and as
such some consideration should be given to the following guidelines:
. The setback provisions for infill development should be calculated based on
the average setback of adjoining properties.
. The height of infill development should be controlled by a minimum and
maximum percentage of the average height of adjacent buildings.
. Rooflines for new development should match or compliment pre-existing
heritage roof lines if adjacent or proximate to the site of redevelopment.
. On wide lots, building fa<<;ades should be designed to appear as multiple
storefronts at grade. This subdivision maintains the storefront rhythm of
the street wall.
. Storefronts should be designed to maintain the rhythm of the heritage
storefront character with its recessed entries and large bay windows.
. Residential apartments above street level shops should be encouraged as
this use contributes to increased street animation.
. Parking areas should be located at the rear of new and infill development
and accessible via a public or private laneway. All parking areas should be
screened by landscaping from the public street
. To support the transition of Heritage areas to adjacent street related
development and nearby residential areas, traditional form elements
including pitched roofs, gable ends, dormer windows, and other
architectural features should be incorporated into the design of new
buildings.
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6. PREFERRED APPROACH TO COMMERCIAL PLANNING IN
CLARINGTON
Significant discussion on the preferred approach to commercial planning in Clarington
was undertaken through the Commercial Policy Review. It was determined that the
preferred approach should be one which included the following:
. The integration of land use, urban design and transportation objectives;
. The provision of less restrictive commercial policies;
. The phasing of new development in Bowmanville West Town Centre
according to warranted support for new space that will not have an undue
adverse impact on the Downtowns;
. The use of municipal initiatives to foster the health of the Downtowns; and,
. The focusing of appropriate forms of commercial development in the urban
centres.
The intent is not to regulate competition but to ensure that the planned function of
the Downtowns in particular, and the Town and Village centres in general, are
maintained while continuing to provide accessibility and convenience for the public.
The amount of commercial floor space should continue to be co-ordinated with the
growth of the market. The Clarington Commercial Policy Review Retail Market and
Impact Analysis and Addendum Market Analysis by urbanMetrics provide an
understanding of the demand for commercial space in Clarington to the year 2021.
The market analysis concludes that some 850,000 to 875,000 square feet of new retail
space can be built by 2010 without causing undue impacts on the existing commercial
centres. In addition, based on per capita service levels, new service space in the
150,000 square foot range is warranted by 2010. The use of some phasing of new
retail space in the Bowmanville West Main Central Area will ensure that the new
development minimizes market impact and that the Municipality moves cautiously
towards a more market led rather than policy led system and approach.
If there is excess market demand beyond the forecast time period evaluated,
additional new commercial development can be accommodated through
redevelopment, intensification and infill in existing planned areas.
The policy structure anticipates the release of development to provide new retail
facilities based on a market demand related to the population of Clarington. It is
recognized that there may be more or less demand than that forecast given the
variables of the economy and the specific local circumstances. The proposed policy
framework provides for a limit. If the demand is less there will be capacity not used
until later in the planning period. If the demand is greater then it is the intent that
intensification, redevelopment and infill within the Central Areas will provide
sufficient opportunity.
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From an urban structure perspective the preferred policy approach is to concentrate
commercial uses in existing urban areas including the westerly expansion of the
Bowmanville West Main Central Area, which consists of the eXisting Highway
Commercial/Special Policy area and additional lands to the north. The existing
centres are and will be central to the growing population. In addition they form the
'nodes' along Clarington's main street, a key element of the long term urban structure
objectives. The potential commercial development should be focused, not dispersed.
However, this approach assumes that the landowners are willing to construct the
necessary transportation infrastructure to be available when the expansion area lands
are open and ready for business. It also assumes that the developers will design and
construct a retail centre that achieves the urban design principles of the Municipality,
providing a high quality public realm and amenities, appropriate built form and
pedestrian environment. However, if the Municipality cannot achieve these
objectives, it should reconsider its options with a greater emphasis on intensification
of existing centres.
The Municipality may use a combination of the rezoning process and Holding by-law
provisions to implement the expansion and development of the BWMCA. The Holding
by-law may establish criteria related to:
. Conformity of the development with urban design policies; and,
. Securement of the necessary transportation infrastructure.
Consistent with the current Official Plan policy other new centres or commercial areas
should not be created over the five year term. At the next Official Plan review (after
2010) consideration should be given to additional commercial areas or the expansion
of the Bowmanville East Main Central Area to provide additional commercial facilities
to serve the east side of Bowmanville. However, before any expansion of existing
centres or the creation of new commercial areas, there should be a requirement to
examine the potential to accommodate additional retail and service floor space
through intensification of existing designated Town and Village Centres. This would
consider that, as noted in previous studies, there is limited opportunity to establish
large format retail facilities in the Bowmanville East Main Central Area without
detrimentally impacting heritage commercial and residential areas.
The proposed commercial policy and market approach is based on the following logic:
General
. Clarington is a large, well located and rapidly growing municipality that
consists of several well established communities.
. The largest settlement area today and in the future will be Bowmanville.
. New commercial development should be focused in the eXisting Main
Central Areas as they are the most central places in the Municipality.
. The most central place is Bowmanville East and West and this should
remain and continue as the area where commercial uses are focused.
. The historic Downtown in Bowmanville must not be unduly impacted by the
larger format commercial uses concentrated in Bowmanville West and
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would benefit relatively from the proximity as compared to similar uses
drawing shoppers to another municipality.
. Approval of development in the Main Central Areas should conceptually
integrate the achievement of urban design, market and transportation
objectives in the Secondary Plans. All objectives must be achieved for
development to proceed.
. King Street/Highway 2 is the "main street" of the major urban centres in
Clarington which should develop as a high quality urban environment
accommodating vehicular traffic, pedestrians and the main transit spine.
Over time the road environment should become more urban in character as
adjacent development intensifies and orients to the road.
Commercial Structure
. The current commercial structure and policy framework should be
simplified wherever possible.
. The commercial hierarchy should provide for designations which balance
the achievement of their planned function and the ability to serve
consumers with a range and choice of goods.
. As such, the planned functions set out in the Official Plan should allow the
market to function to the extent that it will benefit consumers while
permitting the downtowns to grow and foster as a location for smaller
format and specialty retail and service uses, administration, cultural and
institutional uses, service and specialty retail.
. The revised policy structure should be in conformity with the Region's
current Official Plan noting the proposed new Plan's general direction.
. The Plan should phase the approval of commercial land needs based on
market demand.
. The amount of land designated to accommodate the floor space required
should be based on current coverage experience and should ensure
opportunities for intensification in the existing central areas.
. Highway Commercial areas and policies must be refined to reflect their
existing and intended role and function. They are intended to
accommodate uses such as home improvement stores but not become major
concentrations of retail space or accommodate uses which are important to
the development of key urban centres (such as department or food stores).
. Specialty commercial uses like those anticipated in Port Darlington should
be encouraged in Tourism Nodes and Special Policy Areas.
. Commercial uses in Employment Areas should continue to be limited in
scale and intended to service employees in the area and be accessory uses.
. Retail warehouses, with the exception of home improvement centres,
should be directed to existing Centres rather than Light Industrial Areas.
. Current Official Plan permissions for the location of home improvement
centres should be reaffirmed and if necessary clarified. Their location in
Highway Commercial or Industrial areas, given the quasi-industrial nature of
the use, is appropriate.
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Market Impacts
The Downtowns of Bowmanville, Newcastle Village, Orono and the East
Bowmanville District are extremely important historical resources that
define the character of Clarington.
The primary reason for limiting the scale of commercial development in
Clarington is the ongoing health of the historic Downtowns and the
protection of their planned function.
Positive municipal policies, strategies and initiatives should be used to
foster the health of the Downtowns, wherever possible new development
should contribute to the health of Downtowns.
Policies in the Official Plan should clearly define the role and function of
the Downtowns, their importance and the need for them to remain as
important locations for government, cultural, institutional, office,
residential, service and specialty retail uses with a pedestrian oriented
environment.
Retail and service commercial uses in the Downtown are generally small in
size and serve more specialized markets. In order to focus specialty retail
uses and government! office! administrative functions in the Downtowns
certain types of specific use and retail store size maximums or minimums
may be imposed in areas outside of Downtowns. These controls may link
population growth to the amount of land designated and floor space
permitted while allowing the market to determine the mix and nature of
the retail space.
Downtowns shall be pedestrian-oriented and provide for street-related
commercial uses. Automobile related uses should be discouraged from
locating in the Downtowns and prohibited from the historic areas.
Infilling will be encouraged in the Downtown and East Bowmanville District.
Mixed use such as the combination of new pedestrian.oriented, street-
related commercial development with residential uses should be promoted.
The Municipality should also investigate all possible means to encourage
and provide incentives for redevelopment and intensification in the area.
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Downtowns
. The amount of commercial land designated should be phased based on
market need.
. From a market perspective the additional warranted space to 2010 beyond
current commitments could be reasonably accommodated within the
Bowmanville area through new development on vacant land and through
intensification.
. Market impact studies will only be required for commercial developments
which would result in the addition of substantially more commercially
designated floor space, expansion to existing areas or by the designation of
new areas. The focus of any market impact study should be primarily on the
impact on the planned function of Downtowns and should be required solely
at Council's discretion.
. Given the fragility of the Downtowns, conservative assumptions regarding
impacts should be used in the release of new floor space.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
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May 30, 2005
Bowmanville East and West
. While the combination of East and Bowmanville West and East Town
Centres should continue to function as a large regional centre, the two
areas should remain distinct from a policy perspective in the Official Plan.
. With the majority of new commercial development focused in one central
location in Bowmanville West it should provide support for the Downtown.
. Transportation infrastructure must be consistent with the objectives for
each area in Bowmanville.
. Stronger urban design policies are needed to ensure these areas are
developed and redeveloped according to the Official Plan goals, objectives
and direction.
Regional Official Plan Changes
The Region is proposing to amend its current commercial policies by providing a much
more generalized framework and eliminating many elements of commercial
development that is currently regulated at the Regional level. The Region's interest in
commercial areas is proposed to be limited to proposals of 56,000 square metres
(602,600 square feet) or more or any proposal requiring a market population of 75,000
people or more. The Region has also suggested that Main Central Areas now be
referred to as Regional Centres and Central Areas be referred to as Centres. While
Clarington supports a commercial policy that promotes nodes and corridors, they have
raised some issues regarding the Region's removal of interest in areas less than 56,000
square metres.
The recommended changes to Clarington's commercial policy structure would conform
to the Region's general directions identified to date and to the current Regional
Official Plan policies.
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7. PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE COMMERCIAL POlICI~S
General Policies
There are several general policies in the Official Plan which refer to goals and
objectives for commercial development. There do not appear to be any changes
required to the general policies except for a possible reference to population
projections and targets that may be updated as shown below.
Section
Existing Policy
Proposed Policy
ChangeslNotes
5. Growth
Management
5.3.3 The management of growth in
urban areas shall be consistent with
the principles of sustainability,
flexibility, adaptability over time,
protection of ecosystems,
compactness of urban form,
intensification of existing areas, mix
and integration of uses and the
progressive, orderly extension of
urban development.
Table 5-1 will be updated in
the future. The population
projections used in the market
impact analysis will be
referenced in the amendments
to the commercial policy
section.
Central Areas And Commercial Areas
Clarington's current commercial policy structure is based on a hierarchy which
provides for commercial land use designations in Central Areas (main, sub-central or
local), Neighbourhood Commercial or Highway Commercial Areas. Further specific
designations are found within the Secondary Plans. The various types of Central Areas
are further defined by location (Bowmanville East, Bowmanville West, Courtice,
Newcastle, and Orono). The Central Areas have caps placed on the amount of retail
and personal service gross leasable area that is permitted.
The Central Areas are not limited to commercial uses and as such any changes to these
areas and policies must be done carefully to ensure the intended function is
maintained. Changes to the names will also need to be reflected in references to the
areas in other sections of the Plan (e.g. in the residential neighbourhoods section
there are tables referring to housing densities and targets in the Main Central, Sub
Central Areas).
The following proposed recommended changes are intended to maintain the current
planned function of the Central Areas, including the Downtowns, and simplify the
commercial component. It is also important to maintain the locational references in
the new designation names. The changes continue to reflect the two Bowmanville
Main Central Areas as distinct areas, as required by the Durham Regional Official Plan.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
~iMERIDIAN
...."-~""
23
May 30, 2005
The Central Areas should be redefined as follows:
. Bowmanville Main Central Areas (East and West) will now be defined as the
Bowmanville East Town Centre and the Bowmanville West Town Centre.
. Courtice Main Central Area will now be defined as the Courtice Town
Centre.
. Newcastle Village Main Central Area will now be defined as the Newcastle
Village Centre.
. Courtice Sub.Central Area will now be defined as the Courtice West
Shopping District.
. Local Central Areas will be defined as Neighbourhood Centres and further
reviewed.
. Orono Local Central Area will be defined as the Orono Village Centre.
. Neighbourhood Commercial Areas will be consolidated with Neighbourhood
Centres. However if they are 500 sq. m. or less, they will be consolidated
under the policies for Corner Stores.
. Highway Commercial Areas will now be defined as Highway Commercial
Districts.
The Town and Village Centres, the Courtice West Shopping District and the Highway
Commercial Districts should have sufficient land areas designated with boundaries
provided for in the Secondary Plans to allow for additional retail commercial
development in the 850,000 to 875,000 square feet range. This amount of additional
retail floor space should be permitted through changes to the Official Plan. This
amount of retail floor space is warranted by 2010 by the additional demand resulting
from the growing population, the recapture of shopping dollars that are currently
leaving the community, and reasonable levels of sales transfers from existing retail
facilities in Clarington. It should be noted that additional lands and/or floor space
would be designated to accommodate the non-retail service space that typically
locates in the type of developments proposed.
The land use schedules including those that refer to the Neighbourhood Planning Units
should be amended to reflect the revised hierarchy wording.
Local Central Areas and Neighbourhood Commercial Areas are currently designated as
symbols on the Official Plan land use schedules with policies outlining the range of
sizes and types of uses permitted in the centre. Not all of these centres have
developed as the residential communities have been built. In addition there are
applications both before the Municipality or recently approved by the Ontario
Municipal Board to redesignate some of the sites to non-commercial uses. An initial
review of the experience over the past decade suggests that the two designations may
be combined with the centres serving a more local function under the proposed
terminology of Neighbourhood Centres. Rather than identifying specific sizes for each
Neighbourhood Centre, a range of sizes would be permitted.
The smallest Neighbourhood Commercial Areas (less than 500 square metres or 5,400
square feet) can be redefined as Corner Stores are permitted in the Residential Areas
subject to various criteria regarding the appropriate types of commercial uses,
appropriate locations and urban design requirements.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
M E ~!Qt~~
24
May 30, 2005
There are currently five Highway Commercial Areas designated by the Plan.
The five sites are proposed to be dealt with as follows:
a) Liberty and 401 (Bowmanville)
This site is largely built.out. There may be opportunities for redevelopment of
the hotel site over time to upgrade to modern standards. The lands should be
retained as a Highway Commercial Area
b) Waverly and 401 (Bowmanville)
The lands near the intersection of Waverly Road and Baseline Road near
Highway 401 are designated and for the most part, zoned for Highway
Commercial but only partially built to date. The Torgan site plan and rezoning
proposal provides for a large-format retail development and hotel site. The
Bowmanville automall development is partially occupied. There is an existing
transport depot that is a potential redevelopment site. The lands should be
retained as a Highway Commercial Area
c) Courtice and 401 (Courtice)
This site was deferred at the time of the approval of the Clarington Official
Plan since the Region was undertaking a review of large-format retail uses in
Regional Employment Areas. As such, the Highway Commercial Area
designation has never come into force and effect. This site does not comply
with the Regional criteria and there has been no interest in pursuing this type
of development, given the competing large format centres proposed and
existing in Oshawa and Whitby. This area should be designated for light
Industrial purposes consistent with the northerly part of the designation and
the adjacent lands.
d) Green and Highway 2 (Bowmanville)
This site is the location of the West Diamond/Players application, which'
proposed to be deleted and redesignated as an expansion to the Bowmanville
West Town Centre.
e) Taunton and Highway 35/115 (Orono)
This area in north Orono, the current site of the Co-Op, should be retained.
Policies affecting service stations have been reviewed and changes are proposed
affecting the location, number and design of service station sites. The changes are
consistent with the general thrust of the CPR and the experience of the Municipality in
administering the Plan over the past several years.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
~)MERlDt~~
25
May 30, 2005
Drive-through establishments have become increasingly popular since the last Official
Plan Review and their impacts on the roads, the pedestrian environment and
residential areas have raised compatibility concerns which are better understood now.
Additionally, their auto-oriented design makes them difficult to integrate into a main
street environment. This issue was studied extensively by the Municipality in the
Bowmanville King Street East Corridor Study. The recommendations of that Study was
to regulate drive-throughs as a specific land use subject to zoning criteria and other
policies. The Municipality should continue to prohibit drive.throughs in the historic
Downtowns and extend this to appropriate areas adjacent to them. The Municipality
should implement appropriate zoning regulations and urban design guidelines for other
areas in the Municipality recognizing that different areas may require somewhat
different treatments (e.g. Highway Commercial Districts versus main street areas).
The current permission for a food store on the lands located at the southwest corner
of the intersection of Regional Road 57 and King Street was granted as part of the OMB
hearing over a decade ago. The site, use and store specific permission has not been
taken up. Given the time period and the underlying office commercial permissions, it
is recommended that the food store permission be removed, continuing to allow for
office commercial uses that would contribute to the employment base, customer base
and mixed use nature of the area.
One area that will be required to be addressed is the continuation of the commercial
land use policies in the Secondary Plans. There are currently a wide range of
commercial designations in the Secondary Plans, in part reflecting their preparation at
different periods of time. These should be redefined as shown on Table 1 below, with
the update to each Secondary Plan to provide for a consistent set of Secondary Plan
commercial designations and policies.
Table 1 - Secondary Plan Commercial Designations
Secondary Plan
Bowmanville East MCA
Bowmanville West MCA
Courtice Sub-Central
Area
Newcastle Village
Port Darlington
South West Courtice
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
Current Commercial
Designations
Street Related Commercial Area
Primary Commercial Area
Mixed Use Area
Retail Commercial
Office Commercial
Primary Commercial
Mixed Use Area
Office Commercial
Street Related Commercial Area
Strip commercial Area
Mixed Use Area
Marina commercial
Village Commercial
Convenience commercial
/'"\
. ~lMERID.~~
Proposed Designation
Same
General Commercial
Same
Provided in the
Secondary Plan process
General Commercial
Same
Same
Same
General Commercial
Same
Same
Same
Should be shown as a
neighbourhood centre
26
May 30, 2005
Exhibit 2, Proposed Policy Changes, provides an overview the recommended changes
to the current policy framework and policies.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
, ~;~IB!RM~
27
May 30, 2005
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*Note: Courtice Main Central Area - Draft Secondary Plan
A Highway 2 Corridor and Main Central Area Study" was undertaken to develop a
flexible policy framework for intensification and development along the Courtice
corridor. A number of recommendations were made to establish Highway 2 as a "main
street" for the Courtice Main Central Area. A Secondary Plan was prepared but was not
adopted by Council and the area remains as a deferred policy in the current Official
Plan.
The key recommendations from the 2001 Secondary Plan which related to commercial
development were as follows:
. The area is to be made up of the Courtice Main Central Area and the
Courtice Highway 2 corridor.
. The Main Central Area is to function as the focal point of activity, interest
and identity for the area, It is to be vibrant with shopping areas, range of
housing and links to facilities, This area is proposed to have gross leasable
area for commercial uses of 25,000 square metres (269,000 square feet).
This area is to have the main concentration of retail uses.
. The Courtice Highway 2 Corridor area refers to the areas along Highway
outside of the Main Central Area. This area is proposed to be developed
primarily for residential uses with some small commercial uses. It is to be a
mixed use area with the retail being of small scale and secondary to
residential development.
. A Local Central Area is to be located at the intersection of Prestonvale
Road and King Street,
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
~1tllilIDIAM
46
May 30, 2005
8. REVIEW Of APPLICATIONS
Based on the market impact analysis and the recommended commercial policy
amendments the following approach to the current applications for commercial use is
recommended:
Bowmanville
The recommended expansion to the BWMCA will permit the first phase of the
applications on the West Diamond and Players site immediately. The second phases
would be permitted by 201012011 or based on the equivalent population threshold.
The permission to expand or intensify on this site should be conditional on achieving
the land use, urban design and transportation objectives which are to being addressed
through the review of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan,
The Halloway Holdings proposal to amend the Official Plan to permit a home
improvement centre within the current boundaries of the WBMCA should not be
approved as a home improvement facility is considered to be a quaSi-industrial use not
consistent with the intent to create a pedestrian oriented commercial centre, The
proposed site is immediately adjacent to an existing high school and occupies a key
location in the BWMCA,
The re-tenanting of current Loblaws store in Clarington should be permitted and the
zoning requirement mandating a Food Store on this parcel should be removed. The
application to expand the Loblaws store in Clarington Centre should be denied as the
same applicant is recommended for approval in the expanded West Town Centre.
The Torgan Highway Commercial site plan involves a new home improvement use,
Most of this site is designated and zoned for Highway Commercial and therefore has
existing development rights.
The AYT application to amend the Durham Regional Official Plan and the Clarington
Official Plan represents additional retail floor space in a location not previously
identified for commercial purposes, The market impact analysis illustrates that there
may be market demand after 2016 for other additional retail space that would
accommodate additional development in Clarington totalling the size proposed, This
site is not recommended for a commercial designation,
The proposed commercial policy amendments, however, continue to recommend that
new development be focused in the identified Centres. Should the current warranted
space in the centres not be able to proceed in accordance with the required land use,
transportation and urban design policies, alternative locations to meet the market
demand may be considered which could include the A YT site for home improvement
uses.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
~lMERIDIAN
~,,~""""''''''''''''''M:
47
May 30, 2005
Courtice
The Courtice area applications for rezoning represent limited additional retail floor
space in accordance with the Official Plan and can be accommodated immediately
with no market impact. It is recognized that the Courtice Centre has existing
permission for 150,000 square feet of retail/service commercial space,
Newcastle Village
The rezoning and site plan applications in Newcastle Village also represent minimal
additional retail and service commercial floor space which can be accommodated
based on the market impact analysis. These applications are consistent with the
recommendations of the CPR to further the role of the downtowns.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
~_.._,
48
May 30,2005
( ,J MERIDIA~
9~ SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The Commercial Policy Review conclusions support more flexibility in commercial
policy, remaining consistent with the existing policy structure and the policies of the
Region of Durham Official Plan. While the conclusions have been informed by the
market analysis, any estimate or forecast of consumer behaviour provides only an
understanding of possible futures, at best, The approach taken in this analysis has
been to use the market forecasts to understand potential consequences rather than to
assume a direct link between the warranted space calculations and resulting land use
policies,
While the need for additional commercial facilities is established, at the same time
Clarington residents appear to have a clear sense of what they want (and don't want)
in terms of urban design, If Clarington is to move to more flexible commercial
policies, so that the market can respond to consumer preferences, there must be an
assurance that the new facilities will reflect the urban design goals of the people of
Clarington, As such any new commercial development should contribute to the sense
of community - in its location, building form, relationship to its surroundings and the
nature of its use.
The following questions were posed at the initiation of the Commercial Policy Review,
Is the overall commercial structure and policy framework in Clarington
appropriate and what, if anything, needs to be changed?
The overall commercial structure and policy framework in Clarington needs to be
updated to reflect the changing and evolving market, the need for a somewhat more
flexible policy approach to address the needs of a growing Municipality, and to clearly
identify the role of commercial areas including the Centres, Districts and Downtowns.
What key principles should be used in the planning, design and
implementation of commercial and central areas?
The key principles to be used in the planning, design and implementation of
commercial and central areas should be:
. The integration and achievement of market/urban design and
transportation objectives;
. The provision of more flexible commercial policies;
. The phasing of new development according to anticipated demand without
regard for the type of store;
. The use of municipal initiatives to foster the health of the Downtowns; and,
. The focusing of appropriate forms of commercial development in the urban
centres.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
: ~IMERIDIAN
., ,,;""-"-cooouwmooo
49
May 30, 2005
The intent of planning should not be to regulate competition but to ensure that the
planned function of the Downtowns and the commercial centres are maintained while
continuing to provide accessibility and convenience for the public. .
How can the historic downtown areas in Bowmanville, Newcastle and Orono
remain vibrant if there is an increase in commercial floorspace in their
respective markets?
The Downtowns of Bowmanville, Newcastle Village and Orono are extremely important
historical resources that define the character of Clarington. Policies in the Official
Plan must clearly define the role and function of the Downtowns, their importance and
the need for them to remain as important locations for government, cultural,
institutional, office, residential, service and specialty retail uses with a pedestrian
oriented environment. Downtowns should be pedestrian oriented and provide for
street. related commercial uses, Automobile related uses should be discouraged from
locating in the Downtowns and prohibited from the historic areas. Infilling will be
encouraged, and the combination of new pedestrian.oriented, street. related
commercial development with residential uses should be promoted.
Council should consider a review of all potential municipal policies, initiatives and
incentives available to foster the continued health of the communities' downtowns,
Should the retail floor space thresholds in the BowmanviUe West Main
Central Area Secondary Plan be maintained, modified or deleted?
While the preferred approach to commercial policy is to provide for flexible controls,
given the stage of growth in which the Municipality finds itself, the ability to maintain
some control over that growth is important. It has been recommended that the retail
floor space thresholds in the BWMCA be modified in accordance with the market
analysis and that development be phased and inextricably linked to the achievement
of urban design and transportation objectives.
What transportation infrastructure is needed to support commercial areas
and how can the Main Street function of Central Areas be implemented?
Much of the commercial growth is to be directed to the key urban areas, It is a key
objective of the Municipality to ensure that the Durham Highway 21King Street can
maintain its function as a "main street" though the Centres and still provide an
effective means of transport across the Municipality. The specific road system
required in the BWMCA will be set out through policy in the Secondary Plan and will be
required to be phased to prOVide sufficient capacity as development occurs. Certain
road links may be preconditions to the extension of the BWMCA.
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
( ~j ~~J!lJA~
50
May 30,2005
What Smart Growth and built form principles should be incorporated in the
development of commercial and Central Areas?
From an urban structure perspective the preferred policy approach is to concentrate
commercial uses in existing urban areas including the expansion of the BWMCA, which
consists of the existing special policy area and additional lands to the north. The
existing centres are and will be central to the growing population. In addition they
form the 'nodes' along Clarington's main street, a key element of the long term urban
structure objectives. The potential commercial development should be focused, not
dispersed, Development should accommodate long term intensification, energy
efficient and transit.supportive designs and connection to surrounding
neighbourhoods.
What should the planned function of the Bowmanville East Main Central
Area and the Bowmanville West Main Central Area in Clarington's
commercial hierarchy be and are further policies necessary to ensure the
vitality of existing and proposed Central Areas?
The Bowmanville East and West Main Central Areas should be developed as the primary
concentration of business activity within the Municipality providing a full integrated
array of retail and personal service, office, residential, cultural, community,
recreational and institutional uses. The areas will function jointly as the focus of
culture, art, entertainment and civic gathering in the Municipality. They will be
places of symbolic and physical interest for residents and foster a sense of local
identity. Each area will have a unique character and function and be developed in
accordance with its respective Secondary Plan policies.
The Bowmanville West Town Centre will include a variety of retail uses provided it is
developed in accordance with strong urban design principles aimed at creating a sense
of place and character. The amount of retail floor space in Bowmanville West will be
phased in accordance with population growth in Clarington.
The Bowmanville East Town Centre will include the historic downtown and the east
business district, The historic downtown will be focussed on Main Street urban design
principles as set out in the Official Plan. Automobile related sales and service uses are
to be discouraged and drive-though facilities are to be prohibited from the historic
downtown. The integration of historic structures into redevelopment proposals is
encouraged. The East Business Area is intended to provide for a mix of land uses and
opportunities for redevelopment and intensification,
What, if any, adjustments are required to the existing commercial policy
hierarchies and how will the proposed applications be disposed?
The current commercial structure and policy framework should be simplified, The
commercial hierarchy should provide for designations which balance the achievement
of their planned function and the ability to serve consumers with a range and choice
of goods. As such, the planned functions set out in the Official Plan should be more
Commercial Policy Review 51
Final Report ( 'J.m.RllliAM May 30, 2005
general, more flexible and allow the market to function to the extent that it will
benefit consumers while ensuring that high quality urban environments with a distinct
sense of place are created. The historic downtowns should be encouraged to grow and
prosper as locations for administration, cultural and institutional uses, service and
specialty retail. .
The proposed floor space in most of the applications is warranted with some phasing
being provided for, The proposed developments will be required to comply with the
policies of the BWMCA Secondary Plan and specifically with the urban design and
transportation infrastructure policies.
Where should Clarington go from here?
It will be important to monitor commercial development over the next five years and
to evaluate the how well the main commercial centres achieve their objectives and
provide for the recommended planned functions,
Commercial Policy Review
Final Report
( mMERIDIA~
52
May 30, 2005
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Attachment 3 to PSD-077-05
Addendum Market Analysis
Clarington Commercial Policy Review
Prepared For: Meridian Planning Consulting Inc.
Municipality of Clarington
Date: May 9, 2005
urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strategic advisors
144.146 Front Street West, Suite 460
Toronto. ON MSJ 2L7
urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strategic advisors
144-146 Front Street West, Suite 460
Toronto, ON, M5J 2L7
416-351-8585
Toll Free 1-800-505-8755
(416) 345-8586 (fax)
www.urbanmetrics.ca
May 9, 2005
Mr, Carlo Pellarin
Manager, Community Planning & Design
Municipality of Clarington
40 Temperance Street
Bowmanville, ON L 1 C 3A6
Dear Mr, Pellarin:
Re: Addendum Report
As a supplement to our previous retail market analysis prepared as background to the Clarington
Commercial Policy Review, urbanMetrics inc. has underlaken additional market anaiyses with respect to
the following:
. based on six scenarios (0-1 to D-6), an evaluation of the market opportunity for a number of
recent proposals in Clarington and the extent of impacts created on existing retail facilities and
the retail structure in Clarington (see Appendix A for details);
. additional warranted retail space anaiysis scenarios (Scenarios B-1 and B-2, utilizing the
assumptions in Scenarios 0-1 and 0-2 respectively) which assume higher recapture rates than
utilized in our December 2004 Scenario B analysis to reflect additional space proposed (these
two scenarios have been evaluated based on our detailed impact anaiysis, which indicate that
these are the most reasonable development scenarios) (see Appendix B for details); and
. a warranted sefVice space anaiysis utilizing space per capita planning ratios (see Appendix C for
details),
The proposals evaluated in this Addendum (see accompanying map for location of major proposais in
Bowmanville), which were not analyzed in the December 2004 reporl, include the following:
. Expansion of the existing Canadian Tire store in Clarington Piace (Valiant) by some 15,200
square feet, which is permitted under the existing zoning (Map Key C),
. The Metrus proposal (West Diamond and Players, Map Key B), which includes a Loblaws of
142,600 square feet, a Wal-Marl of 105,600 square feet and additional CRU space, to now
include the Phase 2 expansion of Loblaws (21,300 square feet) and the Wal-Mart (40,000
square feet) earlier than originally anticipated. For the purposes of our analysis, we have
assumed that the Loblaws expansion would be entirely comprised of DSTM space,
urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strategic advisors
. The addition of a Rona home improvement centre on the Torgan site (Map Key D) of some
76,500 square feet, with a potentiai Phase 2 expansion of some 18,300 square feet
. The AYT proposal (Map Key A), which in addition to restaurant space and a hotei, indudes a
warehouse membership club (145,300 sqJt), a home improvement centre (80,700 sqJt),
and CRU space of some 226,600 square feet (of which we have assumed that
approximately 80% or 180,000 square feet would be non-department store DSTM),
. The potentiai for the expansion of Ciarington Centre by some 37,700 square feet (assume
that approximately 31,700 sq.ft. of this space could be non-department store DSTM) based
on the Loblaw Properties Limited application to permit an expansion to their existing Loblaw
supemnarket 1
A-AYT
B - West Diamond
C - Valiant
1 Assume that if Loblaws relocates to another site, that the opportunity for expansion of the Clarington Centre for other retail uses
would still be an cption.
.,
2
urbanMetrics inc.
market. economic and strategic advisors
Markel ODDortunitv and ImDact Analvsis
A number of scenarios have been evaluated in this Addendum report as to the market available and the
potential impacts created by each of the different scenarios on Clarington's retail structure, All of the
scenarios include both approved and ceriain designated sites, as detailed in our analysis. The following
table summarizes the scenarios tested and the assumed timing of development (Le, first full year of
operation for each of the uses proposed), These scenarios reflect the changes noted above. At the
bottom of this table the inputs utilized in our previous December 2004 Scenario B analysis have been
indicated. These inputs are built into the new scenarios,
SCENARIO 0 ASSUMPTIONS
Floor Area SUB-5CENARIOS EVALUATED:
Proposed Expansion 0-1 0-2 D-:J
SCENARIQ [] _ New Additions/Modifications 12005 Addendum 1
D-4
0-5
0-6
Canadian Tire (1 15.200sq.f1 2007 2007 2007 2SJff/ 2007 2007
Rena (Torgan) - Home Improvement{1 76,400sq.ft 1B,300sqft 200712013 200712013 2007/2013 200712013 2007/2013 200712013
Metros-Loblaws 21,300sq.ft 2007 2007 2007 2007
assume expansion is all DSTM\
Melrus - Walmart Expansion 40,OOOl>q.ft 2008 2008 2008 2008
Valiant - Home Depot (1 83,900sq.ft (Homelmpro,''''W1I) 2007 2007
Valiant-If NO Home Depot {1 65,OOOsq.f1 (a.....meDSTM) 2007 2007 2007 2007
Clarington Centre. potential expansion 37,700sq.ft. (...."""'31.700DSTM) WJ7 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
AYT - Home Improvement l1 BO,700sq.1t (Hom8~""I) 2007 2001 2007 2007
AYT - Warehoos8 Club 145,300sq.ft 2008 2001
AYT - CRU {excluding restaurant) 226,600sq.ft 200812013 2oo8J2013 2007
80% OSTM /2 50%150% 50%150'10
AYT. CRU 143,400sq.ft 2007
60% DSTM /2
AYT - Department Store 105,600sq.fl ~~sq.ft 200712008
,""N
AYT - Supermarket 142,600sQ.fl 2007
ronosed at West Di8mond, incl. ex'" nsionl net52,500sq.f1DSTM
same as net35.300s~.ft. Food
Previous Analvsls . Scenario B Base IDecember 20041 (Included In Scenario 0 as Indicated)
West Diamond & Players 46,800sqtf\ 2007 2007 2007 2007
loblaws osn~ {Phase' 1\ & Other AnciUarv DSTM Phase 1
West Diamond & Players 35,300sqffl. (m;ltatldition) 2007 2007 2007 2007
Loblaws Food
West Diamond & Players 105.620sqlfl revised 2007 2007 2007 2007
Well-Mart
Valiant. Clarington Place DSTM 81,900sqlft 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
Valiant /Halloway Holdings - Home Depot see above modificalions
Torgan DSTM 75.000sljfft 2007 WJ7 2007 2007 2007 2007
Clarington Centre - Loblaws Retenanting DSTM 50,400 sqlfl 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
Other Bowmanville - Local Central Areas - DSTM 15,OOOsqlft 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
Valiant. Courtice Main Cenlral Area - DSTM 75,OQOsqlft 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
Newcastle Village - DSTM 10,000sqlfl 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
SOURCE: urbanMetrics Inc.
1}Excludesgardenl;lln1re.
The six new scenarios evaluated, which include the proposals evaluated in the Scenario B analysis, are
summarized as follows:
3
urbanMetrics inc.
market. economic and strategic advisors
. 0-1 - West Diamond (Metrus), Canadian Tire expansion, a Home Depot at Clarington Place, a
Rona on the Torgan site with an expansion. Metrus Loblaws expansion. Clarington Centre
expansion (including re-tenanting of Loblaws), Wal-Mart expansion,
. 0-2 - West Diamond (Metrus). Canadian Tire expansion, Home Depot at Clarington Place
substituted for additional CRU space (assume replaced with some 65,000 sq.ft of DSTM space).
a Rona on the Torgan site and its expansion, the phase 2 Metrus Loblaws expansion (assume
DSTM). the phase 2 Wal-Mart expansion, Clarington Centre expansion (including re-tenanling of
Loblaws), Home Depot on the AYT site,
. 0-3 - Scenario D-2 plus A YT Warehouse Membership Club (WMC) and A YT other CRU phased
(CRU DSTM estimated at 180,000 square feet),
. 0-4 - Scenario D-2 plus AYT other CRU phased and no WMC,
. 0.5 - West Diamond/Players (Metrus) excluded, Canadian Tire expansion. Home Depot at
Clarington Place replaced with additional CRU space (assume replaced with 65,000 sq,ft, of
DSTM), a Rona on the Torgan site and its expansion. Clarington Centre Loblaws expansion,
Home Depot at AYT, AYT WMC and AYT other CRU (180,000 square feet DSTM, not phased),
. 0.6 . West Diamond/Players (Metrus) excluded, Canadian Tire expansion (Valiant), Home Depot
at Clarington Place (Valiant) replaced with additional CRU space (assume replaced with 65,000
sq,ft. of DSTM), a Rona on the Torgan site with an expansion, Clarington Centre expansion
(including re-tenanting of Loblaws), Home Depot at A YT, supermarket at A YT, Wal-Mart at A YT
(phased), other AYT CRU (not phased), This scenario assumes that If West Diamond/Players did
not go ahead, the AYT proposal would be revised again to include the same space in the West
Diamond/Players application, It is assumed under this second scenario that a WMC would not
form part of this proposal, since the site would be unable to accommodate this amount of space,
It should be noted that none of the scenarios include an evaluation of three home improvement centres
as we have assumed that there are only two chains currently developing large format stores (Le, Home
Depot and Rona) in the GTA market
Our analysis is intended to be utilized as input to the Clarington Commercial Policy Review, but also to
address Durham Region's Official Plan requirements for a retail market study for the A YT site to
demonstrate that "the proposed retail uses and the cumulative amount of ftoorspace will not unduly affect
the viability of any designated Central Area on Map 'A' and Central Areas and Specific Purpose
Commercial Areas designated in area municipal official plans.,
Recognizing that neither the West Diamond/Players nor the A YT sites have approvals in place. our
evaluation also includes a comparison of the potential market available to and the impacts created by the
4
urbanMetrics inc.
market. economic and strategic advisors
AYT proposal versus the West Diamond/Players proposal. From a market perspective, we have also
included a review ot the suitability ot the A YT site tor a retail commercial development.
To evaluate the potential impacts created by the proposed retail developments in Clarington, we have
undertaken an analysis for each of the following store types:
. Home and Auto (includes Canadian Tire)
. Home Improvement (includes such stores as Home Depot and Rona)
. Non-Department Store DSTM
. Department Store DSTM
MARKET AND IMPACT ANALYSIS
COMPARISON OF BASIC ASSUMPTIONS
"'''' "''' "'" 2013 '''''
DelllrtmentStorBShare of DSTM
Scena.io B (Dee. 2004) 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5%
", 26.5% 26.5'l1o 29.0% 29.0% 29.0%
0,' 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 28.5%
o. 26.5'10 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5%
04 26.5% 26.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5%
", 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5%
"" 26.5% 26.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5%
Clarlnlltonla'l'...._O..""'r1mentStore
ScellllrioB(Qec.2004) 17.0% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5%
O~, 17.0% 47.5% 50,", 50,", 50,",
", 17.0% 47.5% 50,,", 60.,", 60.,",
", 17.0% 47.5% 50.0% 5O.a'l'. SO.O%
D4 11.0% 41.5"10 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
", 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 11.0% 17.0%
"" 17.0% 47.5% 50.0% 50,0% 50.0%
Clarlnaloi'l Sllar... Non_OamIrlmenl Store DSTM
SceoarioB {Dac. 2004) ".'" 52.5% 52.5% 52.5% 52.5%
0,' 34.2" 53.5% 53.5'10 53.5% 53.5%
", 34.2% 55.0"1. 55.0"1. 55.0"1. 55.0"1.
o. 34.2% 55_0% 65.0% 67.5% 67.5%
D4 "2% 5&.0% 57.5% "",", 50""
", "2% 62.% 62.5% ".6% 62.5%
0< 34.2% 57.5% 57.5% 57.5% 57.5%
ClarlnlllonShR....HomelmDrayement
Scenario B(Dec. 2004) 123% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0%
", 12.3% ".0% 60.0% ",.0% 80.0%
", 12.3% 80.0% 80.0% 60.0% 80.0%
0,' 12.3% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
04 12,3% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
O~ 12.3% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
"" 12.3% 80.0% 80.0% "",", 80.0%
ClarlnotonShare.HOIl'"le&AuIo
ik..""rioB 76.5% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0""
", 76.5% 80.0% 80,0% 8{),0% 80,0%
", 76.5% 80.0% 110.0% &1.0% 80.0%
<>3 76.5% "'"' "'"' 60,,", 80.0%
D4 76.5% 80.0% 80.0% "'"' 60.0%
", 76.5% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
O~ 76.5% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
SOURCE: urbBnMel:ricslnc.
. Supermarket (where applicable)
The warehouse membership club (WMC) proposed for the
A YT site is included in our non-department store DSTM
analysis: although recognizing the significant food component
of these types of stores, estimates of sales transfers from
existing supennarkets in Clarington have also been included.'
For each scenario evaluated, certain base assumptions have
been varied from our previous December 2004 Scenario B
analysis to reflect the differing market influence of specific
stores and retail uses under each scenario, These include:
. the Clarington share (i.e, expenditures of Clarlngton
residents in Clarington stores); and
. the distribution of DSTM between non-department
store and department store,
The tabie opposite illustrates our share assumptions for each
scenario (D-1 to D-6) compared to those utilized in our
December 2004 analysis (Scenario B-Base),
Based on our assumptions, including inflow, sales performance levels, saies transfers and recapture
opportunities, we have estimated the potential impact on existing Clarington retail facilities with the
2 In order to compare our analysis to the December 2004 report, which does not include a WMC specific analysis, this approach has
been undertaken, although it is recognized that a portion of the sales support for a new WMC is derived from sales transfers from
food stores given the significant food store related merchandise component in a WMC.
3 urbanMetrics inc. estimate recognizing that a large portion of the sales support for a WMC in Clarington would result from the
transfer of sales currently being made at existing WMC's in Durham Region (i.e. Sam's Club in Pickering and Castco in Ajax) and
elsewhere.
5
urbanMetrics inc.
market. economic and strategic advisors
introduction of additional retail space in this market. It should be noted that the assumptions with respect
to recapture are based on professional judgement, including an assessment of the location and amount
of retail space in neighbouring communities. The recapture rates utilized are considered as maximum
targets, however, if recapture is lower than projected then anticipated sales impacts on Clarington
facilities would be higher. If recapture is higher, then sales impacts would be lower,
The following table summarizes the change in sales volumes expected under each scenario for selected
existing store types in Clarington, as well as the total net additional space added to the market that is
assumed in each scenario.
SCENARIO 0
CURINGTON COMMERCIAL POLICY REVIEW
SUMMARY - SCENARIO 0..1 to 0-6
Sca""rlDB Sc_rIoD
San Net Square Fael Added Assumpllons
Sq.Ft. llneludesBllSel C~lI"'ln$aIelIlevBls_ExI$llng
:scenario /Dec.20041 2013 2016 2007 "'"' 2013 "''' Base15cenarIOBj8c:anarioPlus:
'"" "'"' 20'"
Home & Auto
E., 15,200 15,200 15,200 """" -2.5% 1-3% 24.2% 37.6% c.....""r""E""""'"'"
0., 15,200 15,200 15,200 15,200 -1.9% ,,. 24.8% 39.2% t.-ToeExpo""","
0., 15,200 15.200 15.200 15200 -1.11'10 U% 2U% 38.2% Conoc!i""TIuIEl<po","",
04 15,200 15.200 """" 15.200 -1,9% '.9% 24.6% 362% c....di..,T...E>:po""""
D-6 15,2Oll """" """" 15200 -1.9% 1.9% 248% "2% eonadlanTnElQ>o"""",
o., 15,200 15,200 15200 15.200 -2.5% 1.3% 24.2% 37.6% CiwIedI..ThElopo......
Home Improvement 83.900
E., 160,300 160,300 176,600 176.600 -13.6% -13.6% -182% -13.6% CIiuiJ>g""'PIooo I T<qanIT"'V<<'E"""......2a13
0., 157.100 157,100 175,400 175,400 -13.6% -9.1% -13.6% -13.6% AYT&TOfJlonlT"lflInExpo....",2D13
o.~' 157,100 157,100 175,400 175,400 -13.6% -9.1% -131;% -13.6% AYTIT"'II0IIITo<vunExpoo....".2D13
04 151.100 157,100 175,400 175.400 -13.6% -9.1% .131;% -13.6% AYT&T<WlflI"ITo<vunEl<J>o"',,",2Ot3
0., 151,100 157,100 175,400 175.400 -13.6% -9,1% -13-6% -13.6% AYTI T"'IIonITo<vun E.......""' 2013
D-6 160,300 160,300 178,600 178.6Oll -13.6% -13.6% -18.2% -13.~ ClonnglOnPlace& TOf\ianfTorgeo Expa...",,201~
Non-D..partm.....SloreDSTM 354,100
E., 407,100 401,100 407,100 401,100 -22-5% -26.8% -1.1% 12.7% NoAYT,~-...,......,."C~"'CenINI__
0.,' 412,100 472,100 412,100 472,too -34.6% .:lIl.1% -12.9% -0.1% l).-1pMC,""",,,IanI'lo"'_CRUINo_~1
o.~ 412,100 101,400 797,400 797,400 -34.6% -571;% -46.4% -35.6% l).-2pMAYT(WMC:1lJ08,CRU_2llOllr.lOtJ
0.4 412.100 562,100 652,100 652,100 -34.6% -52.0% -43.7% -33.5% ~pMAYT(CRU_~1XIllI2013.Nowt.lCl
0."; 660.900 660.900 ""."'" ""."'" -45.2% -45.2% -16.2% -2.8% A'fT(WIoIC.CRUI,NoW..,~.Clohn;tt>nOll\""p.
D-6 506,200 505,200 506,200 505,200 ~",. -39.2% -12.9% -0.1% AYT(CRUNoWMC.!\upeJm"'l.NoW"'~,ClotIr9mCanh..porwj..,
DflplIrIm.lItstor. 105,620
0.,' 105,600 145,600 145,600 145,600 -2.4% -36.6% -2.4% ..,. W"'M"'''''E"l'MfIicn~DDlI
0-, 105,600 145.600 145,600 145.6OD -2.4% -41.5% -9.8'10 -2.4% w.hIl.,ontIe."...-.2llOI
0-, 105,600 145,600 145,600 145,600 -2.4% -6l!.3% -39.0'10 -34.1% W.J.N/rtonde..._2llI>>
04 105,600 145,600 145,600 145.600 -2,4% -53,7% -24.4% -19.5% W_.....~2DDl1
0., " " " " -2.4% 0.0% 19.5% 34.1% ~w_
D-6 105.600 145.600 145,600 145.600 -2.4% -415% -9.6% -2.4% WoI-M8IIinle_2008.IAn
Supermarilet (food componentl 35,300
0., 35,300 35.300 35,300 35,300 4.1% 9.3% "2% 37.7%
0., 35.300 35,300 35.300 ".000 4.1% 9.3% "2% 37.1%
o.~ 35,300 35,300 35,300 35,301J 4.1% -3.6% 14.3% 24.8% ~,~
0.4 35,300 35,300 ".000 35,300 4.1% 9.3% 27.2% 37.1%
0.,' 18,000 16,000 18,000 18,000 -2.7% 2.1% 19.1% 29.2% _C~OO7
D-6 ".000 35,301J ".000 35,300 4.1% 9.3% 27.2% 37.7% AYT_~
TOTAL INET) TESTED 578.920
E., 723,500 163,51J0 781,61J0 781,800
o.~ 185,300 825,300 843,600 843,600
o.~ 185,31J0 1,1J6O.6oo 1,168,900 1,168,900
0.4 185,300 915,300 1,023,600 1.023,600
0.,' 851,200 851,200 869,500 869,500
o., 822,600 862,600 ..,."'" 860,900
SOURCE: urballMetri<:5inc.
. Home and Auto (Tables 1-0-1 to 1-0-6)- For all Scenarios, with the expansion of the Canadian
Tire store and addition of two home improvement centres in the market, the existing Canadian
Tire store in Clarington Place would likely be affected the greatest. This store, which is currently
achieving estimated sales of $300 per square feet, could experience a deciine in sales volume of
some 1,9% to 2,5% (varies depending on the size of the home improvement centre evaluated) or
to $295 per square feet in 2007, A full recovery to above existing sales levels would occur by
6
urbanMetrics inc.
market. economic and strategic advisors
2008, Additional sales transfers, which have not been evaluated, would also likely occur from
DSTM stores proposed in the market, including Wal-Mart, although these sales transfers are not
expected to result in critical sales impacts for the Canadian Tire.
. Home Improvement (Tables 2-0-1 to 2-0-6) - Clarington currently does not have a large format
home improvement centre, Assuming a lower sales performance level than utilized in our
December 2004 report and the opportunity for a significant recapture of sales currently going to
stores located outside of Clarington, two home improvement stores could be supported in this
market by 2007, We note that we have assumed that the Clarington share would increase from
an existing level of 12,3% to 80% with two large format home improvement stores in Clarlngton,
Recognizing the proximity of Courtice residents (which represent some 30% of the Clarington
population) to Oshawa, we would consider our recapture increase to 80% as a maximum. As
such, if a third home improvement store were to be added to the market, no further increase in
this share could be expected and it is unlikely that it could be supported. In this analysis, we
have assumed that in addition to recapture opportunities, a portion of the sales volume for the
two proposed home improvement centres would be derived from existing home improvement
stores, DSTM stores and Canadian Tire in Clarington, Based on our analysis for all scenarios,
the existing home improvement stores (home improvement/lumber stores only) would experience
a decline in sales per square foot levels from $200 to $170 in 2007 or a 13,6% decline in sales
volumes,
. Non-Department Store DSTM (Tables 4-0-1 to 4-D-6)- Our analysis has included evaluating
the net addition of non-department store DSTM space in the market ranging from 407,100 square
feet (Scenario 0-1) upwards to 797,400 square feet (Scenario D-3, which includes a phased A YT
and West Diamond), With the A YT site added (Scenario 0-3), sales of existing Clarington stores
would decline by some 34.6% in 2007 and close to 58% by 2008, Even by 2016, sales declines
would still be high (35,6%). This indicates that the AYT site can not be supported if the West
Diamond site is approved. If the entire AYT site were to be developed (as proposed) without the
West Diamond/Players site by 2007 (Scenario 0-5), sales declines of existing stores would be in
the order of 45.2% by 2007, declining to 16,2% by 2013, and recovering after 2016 to above
existing levels, Sales declines of this magnitude in the short term would undermine the planned
function of the Bowmanville West Main Central Area and East Main Central Area, including
Downtown Bowmanville. If Scenario 0-5 and 0-1 are compared (AYT with no West Diamond
and West Diamond with no A YT respectively), sales impacts of the A YT would he higher.
. Department Store (Tables 5-0-1 to 5-0-6) - With the expansion of the Wal-Mart in 2008
(Scenarios 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-6), as well as transfers from other DSTM stores (recognized
through a change in the department store share) and Home Improvement centres proposed, the
existing Zellers in Clarington (adjusted to include the 5,600 square foot expansion) would decline
significantly in sales from its existing level of $205. Without the A YT site, sales would decline to
$130 per square foot 2008 (Scenario 0-1 and 0-2), With both the AYT and West Diamond sites
included (Scenario 0-3), the Zellers would decline drastically by $95 per square foot in 2008
7
urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strotegic advisors
which could result in closure, This loss could potentially undermine the planned function of the
Bowmanville West Main Central Area,
. Supermarket (Tables 6-0-3, 6-0-5) - We have assumed that the proposed WMC at the AYT site
would result in sales transfers from Ciarington supermarkets of some $10 million, Recognizing
the growth in the market and the fact that residents are aiready shopping at WMC's elsewhere in
Durham Region, with the proposed relocation of the Loblaws (net food component of 35,300
square feet) and the WMC, overall sales declines for existing supermarkets in Clarington would
be less than 4% in the short term, It should be noted that if another supermarket enters Ihe
market, such as in Courtice or the now vacated A&P site at Liberty and Highway 2, this could
potentially delay the Loblaws expansion on the Metrus site, However, recognizing that the 2"
phase Loblaws expansion on the Metrus site is likeiy to include a significant portion of non-
traditional food store type merchandise, impacts of this expansion are more likely to be on OSTM
facilities rather than food stores,
Warranted Soace Analvsis
In addition to our market and impact analysis, a warranted space analysis was undertaken to update our
Scenario B warranted space analysis included in our December 2004 report (see Appendix B for details),
Recognizing a number of recent proposais, two warranted space scenarios have been evaluated in this
Addendum based on our detailed impact analysis which indicates that Scenarios D-1 and 0-2 are the
most reasonable development scenarios, Based on the Clarington shares and the distribution of
department store and non-department store OSTM as utilized in Scenarios D-1 and D-2, a revised "base
case" or Scenario B warranted space analysis has been undertaken (referred to in this Addendum as
Scenario B-1 and B-2).
A summary of the amount of warranted additional retail space in Clarington by major store type and
scenario over the 2003 to 2021 period is presented in the following tables (see Appendix B for details), It
should be noted that our analysis of warranted space is considered a guideline only and must be
evaluated in the context of the assumptions utilized, including average sales per square foot levels, inflow
and recapture, In the longer term, further increased recapture opportunities may exist which would
increase warranted space, Our analysis, as summarized, does not include sales transfers from existing
retail stores in Clarington which are likely to occur and would further increase the warranted space,
At the lower end of the average sales performance levels calculated which are considered reasonable for
the Clarington market, some 633,800 to 703,000 square feet of additional retail space would be
warranted in Clarington by 2007 (at sales levels of $325 and $290 respectively), By 2010, at the same
sales performance levels, the additional space required would be in the 790,000 to 876,000 square foot
range, By 2021, the additional space would double from that warranted in 2010.
Recognizing that the introduction of new space in the market will likely cause some transfer of sales from
existing stores, if sales reasonable levels of sales transfers are added from existing retailers in Clarington
8
urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strategic advisors
ot 10%, at the $325 per square toot level, for example, additional retail space warranted (i.e. excluding
existing space) in Clarington would amount the following:
. 2007 _ between 735,600 square feet (Scenario B-1) and 704,200 square feet (Scenario B-2)
. 2010 _ between 852,000 square feet (Scenario B-1) and 877,800 square feet (Scenario B-2)
. 2021 _ between 1,542,400 square feet (Scenario B-1) and 1,580,000 square feet(Scenario
B-2)
SCENARiO B. 1 (BASED ON SCENARIO 0-1 RECAPTUREfSHARE ASSUMPTIONS'
SELECTED ADDITIONAL RETAIL SPACE WARRANTED IN ClARINGTON (SQ. Ft. GLAl
Assumptions:
INCREASES IN CLAR!NGTON SHARE (ie. RECAPTURE}
ADJUSTMENT IN DEPARTMENT STORElNON..fJEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SHARE
NOAOJUSTMENT IN SLJPERMARKETlOTHER FOOD STORE SHARE
NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR SALES TRANSFERS FROM eOSnNG RETAILERS IN CLARINGTON
NO ADJUSTMENTS ON A STORE CA TfGORY BASIS FOR SALES TRANSFERS TI-IA T MA Y OCCUR FROM ONE STORE CA TEGORY TO ANOTHER GIVEN MERCHANDISE
OVERLAPS fa,g. from NorHJap8tlmBnt Sf"'" OSTIA ID S~a1ket)
Sales Performance 2005 2007 2008 2010 2013 2016 2021
NON_DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM
$250 persq.ft , 294,000 335.000 361,000 423,000 519,000 620,000 796,000
$275 persq.ft 2 267,000 304,000 328,000 385,000 472,000 564,000 723,000
$300 per sq.ft 3 245,000 279,000 301,000 353,000 432,000 517,000 663,000
$325 per sq. ft 4 226,000 256,000 278,000 326,000 399,000 477,000 612,000
$350 persq.ft 5 210,000 239,000 258,000 302,000 371,000 443,000 568,000
DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM
$400 per sq.ft 1 101,000 136,000 142,000 157,000 180,000 204,000 246,000
$425 parsq.ft 2 95,000 128,000 134,000 147,000 169,000 192,000 231,000
$450 per sq.ft 3 89,000 120,000 126,000 139,000 160,000 181,000 218,000
$500 per sq.ft 4 80,000 108,000 114,000 125,000 144,000 163,000 196,000
$525 per Sq. ft 5 77,000 103,000 108,000 119,000 137,000 155,000 187,000
SUPERMARKET IFood ComDOflent Onlvl
$450 per sq.ft 1 37,000 SO,OOO 55,000 70,000 91,000 113,000 151,000
$475 per sq.ft 2 35,000 47,000 52,000 66,000 87,000 107,000 143,000
$500 per sq. ft 3 34,000 45,000 50,000 63,000 82,000 102,000 136,000
$525 persq.ft 4 32,000 42,000 47,000 60,000 78,000 97,000 130,000
$550 per sq.fl 5 31,000 41,000 45,000 57,000 75,000 93,000 124,000
GROCERYfSPEC\AlTY FOOD
$300 persq.fl 1 14,000 19,000 22,000 28,000 37,000 46,000 61,000
$325 persq.fl 2 13,000 ,8,000 20,000 26,000 34,000 42,000 57,000
$350 persq.ft 3 12,000 17,000 19,000 24,000 32,000 39,000 53,000
$375 persq.f1 4 11,000 15,000 17,000 22,000 30,000 37,000 49,000
$400 per sq.fl. 5 11,000 15,000 16,000 21,000 28,000 34,000 46,000
HOME IMPROVEMENT
$240 per sq.fl. 1 89,000 126,000 132,000 142,000 160,000 177,000 212,000
5250 persq.f1 2 86.000 121,000 126,000 137,000 154,000 170,000 203,000
$260 persq.ft 3 82,000 116,000 121,000 131,000 148,000 163,000 196,000
$260 persq.fl 4 77,000 108,000 113,000 122,000 137,000 152,000 182,000
$300 per sq. fI 5 71,000 100,000 105,000 114,000 128,000 141,000 170,000
HOME & AUTO
$275 persq.fl. , 11,000 17,000 21,000 29,000 41,000 53,000 76,000
$300 persq.ft 2 10,000 16,000 20,000 27,000 38,000 49,000 70,000
$325 persq.fl 3 10,000 14,000 18,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 64,000
$350 parsq.f1 4 9,000 13,000 17,000 23,000 33,000 42,000 60,000
$375 persq.fl 5 8,000 13,000 16,000 22,000 30,000 39,000 56.000
"[PTAJ..::~I:L.E:qrED\AIl9fT19~~:~I;1'".sL'S,~A<:;E'WA.Rf{A~"[el:):IN':~~I!.JCiJOIi:(E!)(c_li;@r(f~~.I~!5:traris(ei:~),F1'li,,":'" -""<"ii/' S:>i';::"'FJ~"; ^^' 1Y~;:>F'
'290 1 546,000 683,000 733,000 849,000 1,028,000 1,213,000 1,542:000
$315 2 506,000 634,000 680,000 788,000 954,000 1,124,000 1,427,000
$325 492,400 616,800 662,000 766,800 928,000 1,093,200 1,388,200
$340 3 472,000 591,000 635,000 735,000 889,000 1,047,000 1,330,000
'365 4 435,000 544,000 586,000 678,000 821,000 968,000 1,229,000
$390 5 408,000 511,000 548,000 635.000 769,000 905,000 1,151,000
Source: urbanMetrics inc
9
urbanMetrics inc.
market. economic and strategic advisors
SCENARIO B-2 (BASED ON SCENARIO 0-2 RECAPTURE/SHARE ASSUMPTIONS)
SELECTED ADDITIONAL RETAIL SPACE WARRANTED IN CLARlNGTON (Sq. Ft. GLA)
Assumptions:
INCREASES IN Cl..ARINGTON SHARE (i.9. RECAPTURE)
OJUSTMENT IN DEPARTMENT STORElNDN-DEPARTMENT STORE OSTAI SHARE
NO ADJUSTMEWT IN SUPERMARKETIOTI-/ER FOOD STORE SHARES
NO ADJUSTlJENTS FOR SALES TRANSFERS FROM EXISTING RETAILERS IN CLARJNGTON
NOADJUSnlENTS ON A STORE CA TEGORY BASIS FOR SALES TRANSFERS r.....r MAY OCCUR FROM ONE STORE CATEGORY TO ANOTI-lER GNEN MERCHANDISE
OVERLAPS (8.g. from Non-Deplllfmenr Stole DSTM h:J SOJpfNmarl<9t)
Sales Performance
NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM
$250 per sq:ft
$275 persq.ft
$300 per sq.fl
$325persq.ft
$350 per sq.ft
DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM
$400 per sq.ft 1
$425 persq.f1 2
$450 persq.f1 3
$500 per sq. fI 4
$525 persq.f1 5
SUPERMARKET (Food Comoonent Onlv\
$450 persq.ft 1
5475 persq.ft 2
$500 per sq.ft 3
$525 persq.ft 4
$550 persq.ft 5
GROCERY/SPECiAlTY FOOD
$300 persq.ft
$325 per sq.ft
$350 persq.ft
$375 persq.ft
$400 persq.fl.
HOME IMPROVEMENT
$240 persq.fI
$250 persq.fI
$260 persq.fI
$280 persqJI
$300 per sq.ft
HOME & AUTO
$275 persq.ft 1 11,000 17,000 21,000 29,000
$300 persq.ft 2 10,000 16,000 2Q,aoo 27,000
$325 per sq.1t 3 10,000 14,000 18,000 25,000
$350 persq.1t 4 9,000 13,000 17,000 23,000
$375 persqlt 5 6,000 13,000 16,000 22,000
T()T~~I;,L;EC:n;p:AQDlIJ()~:RE:r;~.LiS.~AC;EWAARAN;r,E:[)i~N(;lAR,It'!(3;IO,.,.:{~)(~1i.i;tlliflfsil~~'l,r1iiill,f.!!:t:I;); ,,' '" w
$290 1 546,000 703,000 759,000 676,000
$315 2 506,000 651,000 702,000 612,000
$325 492,400 633,800 683,600 790,000
$340 3 472,000 606,000 656,000 757,000
$365 4 435,000 560,000 605,000 698,000
$390 5 408,000 525,000 566,000 655.000
2005
1
2
3
4
5
294,000
267,000
245,000
226,000
210,000
101,000
95,000
89,000
80,000
77,000
37,000
35,000
34,000
32,000
31,000
1
2
3
4
5
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
11,000
1
2
3
4
5
89,000
86,000
82,000
77,000
71,000
Source: urbanMelricsinc
2007
362,000
329,000
302,000
276,000
259,000
132,000
124,000
118,000
106,000
101,000
47,000
44,000
42,000
40,000
38,000
19,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
126,000
121,000
116,000
108,000
100,000
2008
390,000
354,000
325,000
300,000
278,000
139,000
130,000
123,000
111,000
106,000
55,000
52,000
50,000
47,000
45,000
22,000
20,000
19,000
17,000
16,000
132,000
126,000
121,000
_113,000
105,000
2010
454,000
412,000
378,000
349,000
324,000
153,000
144,000
136,000
122,000
117,000
70,000
66,000
63,000
60,000
57,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
21,000
142,000
137,000
131,000
122,000
114,000
553,000
503,000
461,000
425,000
395,000
176,000
165,000
156,000
140,000
134,000
91,000
87,000
82,000
78,000
75,000
37,000
34,000
32,000
30,000
28,000
160,000
154,000
148,000
137,000
128,000
41,000
38,000
35,000
33,000
30,000
1,058,000
981,000
954,200
914,000
843,000
790,000
2013
2016
2021
639,000
763,000
699,000
645,000
599,000
241,000
22fi,000
214,000
192,000
183,000
151,000
143,000
136,000
130,000
124,000
61,000
57,000
53,000
49,000
46,000
212,000
203,000
196,000
182,000
170,000
53,000 76,000
49,000 70,000
45,000 64,000
42,000 60,000
39,000 56,000
Sic'V_^iS.c>>"'i' ;:--
<1.245,000 1.500",000
1,153,000 1,462,000
1,121,400 1,422,000
1,074,000 1,362,000
993,000 1,258,000
928,000 1,178,000
By subtracting the total proposed retail space evaluated in our analysis (760,400 square feet, as detailed
in Appendix D) from the additional retail space warranted (including sales transfers), by 2010 some
91,600 square feet to 117,400 square feet of additional space would be warranted in Clarington, In
2007, if we exclude the Phase 2 expansion of Wal-Mart and Loblaws, the market would be in balance
with a slight oversupply of 13,800 square feet under Scenario B-1 and a small undersupply of 5,100
square feet based on Scenario B-2 (see Appendix D for details),
657,000
597,000
548,000
506,000
469,000
199,000
188,000
177,000
159,000
152,000
113,000
107,000
102,000
97,000
93,000
46,000
42,000
39,000
37,000
34,000
177,000
170,000
163,000
152,000
141,000
10
urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strategic advisors
500,000 square feet by 2021. It should be noted that our estimates of warranted additional space
assume that outflow equates to inflow (Le, Clarington residents' expenditures outside of Clarington would
equate to inflow sales from outside of Clarlngton),
A YT - Site Suitability Evaluation
The 54 acre A YT site is located on the north-west comer of Bennett Road and Highway 401 in the
Bowmanvllle Urban Area, Currently utilized for agricultural uses, it is designated Light Industrial Area in
the Clarington Official Plan, This designation provides for limited retail uses. As indicated In Section
11,5,2 of the Official Plan, large scale retail warehouses may be permitted in Light Industrial Areas by
amendment to the Plan subject to certain provisions. These provisions, as detailed in Section 10,9.5 of
the Official Plan, indicate that:
. the use may be permitted if it is sufficiently large so that it is considered not compatible within a
Central Area location;
. the site is located in proximity to an interchange with a freeway;
. the preparation of a retail impact analysis;
. the anticipated traffic can be accommodated on the transportation network; and
. vehicular access is obtained from an arterial road.
In the Durham Region Official Plan, the AYT site is designated "Employment Area" (Map AS (Regional
Structure)). Within this designation retail warehouse uses are a permitted use, however, other free-
standing uses (e,g, Food Stores, restaurants, department stores) are not permitted,
The A YT site is located on the eastern periphery of the Bowmanville Urban Area, Located in close
proximity to the Bennett Road (a designated Type 3 Arterial Road) and Highway 401 interchange, the site
has high visibility and regional accessibility, These attributes are typically desirable for regional serving
retail facilities, It should be noted that the Regional Plan proposes to remove the Bennett Road and
Highway 401 interchange and add one further west at Lambs Road (also in the Clarington Official Plan),
Lambs Road is proposed to connect with the future Highway 407 to the north. Therefore, access to this
site over the longer term may actually be reduced,
Currently, the majority of retail commercial space in Clarington is located along Highway 2 (King Street) in
the Bowmanville Urban Area, which includes the West Main Central Area and East Main Central Area in
Bowmanville, Given the close proximity of these two Central Areas, they have the ability to compliment
each other and provide cross-shopping opportunities. The A YT location would not likely provide these
opportunities as it is somewhat removed from these areas.
The development of the A YT site for retail uses could also result in additional pressures for amendments
to surrounding industrial lands to accommodate retail uses. This might result in retailers relocating from
the existing Central Areas in Clarington to the A YT site,
12
urbanMetrics inc.
market economic and strategic advisors
Conclusions
The following summarizes the results ot our analysis with details provided in the accompanying
appendices,
Based on our market and impact analysis, the tollowing summarizes our conclusions with respect to the
additional proposals evaluated:
. West Diamond/Players - Wal-Mart Phase 2 expansion - Assuming the A YT site is not
developed over the study period, the proposed Wal-Mart could expand by 2010,
. West Diamond/Players. Loblaws Phase 2 expansion - Assuming the AYT site is not
developed over the study period, the proposed Loblaws could expand by 2010,
. TorganNaliantiAYT - Home Improvement Centres - A maximum of two home
improvement centres can be supported in Clarington by 2007, The possibility of a third home
improvement centre is not considered viable.
. AYT - The AYT site, evaiuated with a proposed WMC and CRU space (comprising an
estimated 180,000 square feet of the total CRU of 226,600 square feet) would create higher
levels of sales impacts when compared to the West Diamond project. Even if the A YT site
included different anchors (department store, supennarket, CRU DSTM space of some
114,700 square feet), as detailed in Scenario D-6, the cumulative affect of the approved
developments and AYT in the short term would be significant for non-department store DSTM
facilities in particular, In comparison to the West Diamond project (Scenario D-1), theAYT
site would still have higher sales impacts,
In summary, the additional new retail space to be added to the approved proposals in the Bowmanville
West Main Central Area is warranted by 2010 based on the assumption that the proposed AYT site is not
developed during this time period, Even if the AYT project were added after this time period, the
incremental affect of this development would result in significant sales impacts for existing space over the
longer term as weiL
The analysis of market opportunity or warranted space (Scenarios B-1 and B-2) concludes that by 201 0,
at an average sales performance levei in the $325 per square foot range', additional retail space
(excluding service space) in the 852,000 to 877,800 square feet range (adjusted to include reasonable
4 In the December 2004, a derived average of $325 was utilized. In the Addendum analysis, due to variances in the sales
performance levels utilized for the various store categories, the mid-point between $315 and $340 per square foot has been utilized
for comparison purposes.
13
urbanMetrics inc.
markel, economic and strategic advisors
Per Capita Service Space Analvsis
In addition to our analysis 01 warranted retail space, we have also estimated the potential additional
service space and liquor/beer/wine space that could be developed in Clarington utilizing a space per
capita methodology,
Based on our 2003 inventory 01 space, the existing space per capita in Clarington lor service space has
been calculated at about 9 square leet per capita, Service space is defined to include food service space
(e,g, restaurants), personal services, and
other services (e,g, financial, medicalldental,
professional services, business services,
entertainment/leisure), Liquor/beer/wine
space amounts to about 0.2 square feet per
capita.
Based on forecast population growth in
Clanngton and forecast per capita levels
increasing from an average of 10 square feet
per capita in 2005 to 14 square feet per
capita in 2021, an estimate of the additional
warranted service and Iiquorlbeerlwine space
has been calculated, as summarized in the
accompanying graph (see Appendix C for
details).
Service and lIquorlBeerlWine Space .
Existing (2003) Square Feet Per Capita In Clarlngton by kea
16.00
!mLBW \
\11 Service Spacej
14.00
12.00
10.00
8,00
6.00
4.00
2.00
.<ff' .
,;-S' ~~.p.
'1/' #'
;f/P
#' /'
of' d"
~
,,'<'
~o
o,.f'
AdditionClI Service and Liquor/Beer/Wlne Store Space Warranted in Clarington
(Sq.Ft. GLA) Based on Future Population Growth
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
1.8 Additional Service/LBW Space I
SERVICES:
EatingIDrinf<;ing:
Persona/Service:
Other Services:
Include fast. food, restaurants, coffee shop$
Includes barber, beauty, {avndry, cIry cleaner, travel agent
Includes financial, medica!!cfenta/, professiomtl services, business services, enterteinment/Jelsuro, automotive S6fVices
Based on our analysis, just over 77,000 square feet of additional service space can be supported by
2007, with close to 150,000 square feet of additional service space by 2010, and increasing to over
11
urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strategic advisors
levels ot sales transfers of 10% from existing retail facilities in Clarington) can be built in Clarington
without causing undue impacts on the existing commercial centres/structure,
Scenario B.1: SELECTED ADDITIONAL RETAIL SPACE
WARRANTEO IN CLARINGTON (sq, It,)
(including sales transfers from existing Clarington stores of 10"A.)
2,000,000
2005 I
0$2001 606,700
8 $315 562,200
. $325 547,100
0$340 524,400
61 $365 483,300
f] $390 453,300
2021
1.713,300
1,585,600
1,542,400
1,477,600
1,365,600
1,278,900
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Scenario B-2: SELECTED ADOITIONAL RETAIL SPACE
WARRANTED IN CLARINGTON (sq. It,)
(including sales Iransfers from existing Clarington stores of 10%)
2,000,000
2010 2013 2016
8$290 973.300 1,175,600 1,383,300
13$315 90'200 1,090,000 1,281,100
0$325 877,800 1,060,200 1,246,000
0$340 641,100 1,015,600 1,193.300
0_ 775,600 936,700 1,103,300
0$300 727,800 an,BOO 1,031,100
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Note: Retail Space Includes food stores, DSTM, home & auto and home improvement
In addition, by 2010, additional service space warranted in Clarington would amount to some 150,000
square feel.
14
urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strategic advisors
Based on the warranted retail space estimates, in addition to the proposed and committed retail space
evaluated in this Addendum report (excluding the AYT site) an additional estimated 91,600 to 117,400
square feet would be warranted by 2010 (see Appendix D for details), By 2021, over 780,000 square feet
of additional space would be warranted, net of proposed and committed space evaluated (excluding
AYT),
We look forward to discussing our results with you,
Yours truly,
urbanMetrlcs inc,
C()eb
Douglas R. Annand
Principal
15
urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strategic advisors
APPENDIX A
Retail Market and Impact Analysis
Scenarios 0-1 to 0-6
0 0 0 000 00 00 00 000 0 0 0 0
~ 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0
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- 3 ~~~ . '" ~ lllll! ~ :!, '" x c-"
w r: &"2 0 000
... "DR;.;'3=: ~ iti~ o 0.. 0. 0 0.0.0 >~ W . .~
0 ... 8~5~ <32S .!ec Q.ee e e e w" " . €~
"
0 > Z ~~" c"O Q.c..<3 0.... ...... ;::0 '" , , .
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Table 1 . D . 1
CLARINro N
SCENARIO D-l
HOME AND AUTO WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (:Millions
200:Dol/ars
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$20,5 $22.4 $23,8 $24.7 $29.6 $32.4
76,5% 60,0%
$15.7 $17,9 $19,0 $19,8 123,7 $25.9
$15,7 $15.7 $1S,7 $15,7 $15.7 $15,7
NIA $2,2 $3,3 $4,1 $8,0 $10,2
ClarinClton
Home & Auto Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
less: Inflow@ 30%
Tota] Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Total Home and Auto Residual Sales Potential Available from Claringlon Residents
{2
$275 $285
$4.2 $4.3 $4,6 $4.8
$1,3 $1.3 $1.4 $1.4
U I,D U 1.4
$3.3 $4.1 $8.0 $10.2
none none oone none
0,4 $,1 U $.a
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (including Canadian Tire and DSTM stores)
based on Available Residual
ADDITIONAL H & A RESIDUAL AVAILABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORES/E)6TING (3
Net Sales from Glaring/on Residents
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES (Canadian Tire)
Total Sq Ft GLA
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4
Change In Total Sales From Existing Level
$15.7
$6.7
$22.4
74~OO
IDD
$15.3 $15.9 $19.5 $21.6
$6.6 $6.8 $8.4 $9.3
$21.9 $22.7 $27.9 $30,9
74~OO 74~OO 74~OO 7 4~OO
19S IDS 175 "S
-2.5% 1.3% 24.2% 37.6%
Source:
1)
2)
3)
4)
urbanMetlicsinc.
Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for Canadian Tire Stores only.
urban Metrics inc. estimate
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyz:ed.
Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot GLA.
Table 2.0-1
CLARINfiON
SCENARIO 0-1
HOME IMPROVEMENT (HI) STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($IIillions)
2003JolJars
2003
2005
2007
2008
2013
2016
Clarinaton
Home Improvement Stofe Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
$18,1
12.3%
$2,2
$2.2
$19,6 $21.2 $22,1 $26.2 $26,6
650%~'~m,\W~
. ~~,It~;:~WM
$12.7 $17,0 $17,7 $21.0 $23,0
$2.2 $2,2 $2.2 $2.2 $2.2
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents NIA $10,5 / $14,8 $15,5 $18.8 $20,8
PROPOSED HOME IMPROVEMENT SPACE
A, Valiant. Home Depot - Square Feet GLA 83~OO 83~OO 83900 83'900
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $230 $240 $260 $280
Total Sales Volume $19.3 $20.1 $21.8 $23.5
Less: Wholesale/ContractorTrade@% (2 $5.8 $6,0 $6.5 $7.1
less: Inflow @ 30% (2 $4.1 $4.2 $4.6 $4,9
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents ... .,' $0.7 $1.5
Sales/Sq. Fl GLA /////< $230 $240 $260 $280
Total Sales Volume $17.6 $18.3 $24.6 $26.5
Less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade @% (2 $5.3 $5.5 $7.4 $8,0
Less: Inflow @: 30% (2 $3.7 $3.8 $5,2 $5,6
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents '.6 '.0 $2.0 $2.9
TOTAL SALES REQ1RED FROM CLAR1NGTON RESIDENTS FOR A. & B. $18.0 $18.9 $22.7 $24.4
Total HI Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents <;;;.. $14.8 $15.5 $18.8 $20.8
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Claringtoo Stores (including Home Improvement and
DSTM) Based 00 Available Residual $3.2 $3.4 $3.9 $3.6
(2 Estimated Transfers from Existing HI Stores in Clarington " I/J I/J $I II
(2 Estimated Transfers from Non-Department Store OSTM " JI " '" "
(2 Estimated Transfers from Department Store OSTM ,. /I. /I. /I. /I.
(2 Estimated Transfers from Canadian Tire " III IJl $J IJl
" $.2 $,' $.9 U
A 011 AL REslD B E OR T R E S R SIE~T1N (3 none none nona none
EXISTING CLARINGTON HI SPACE:
Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions)
.~BI~~1i1JI~~c,~~~'~~~'~-E#
Net Safes from Clarington Residents
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% {2
TOT AL ESTIMATED SALES
Plus Wholesale Trade@J%
GRAND TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES
Total Sq Ft GLA (Home Improvement/Lumber stores only)
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4
Change in Total Sales From ExisUn Level
$2.2
$0.9
$3,1
$1.3
$4,5
15~OO
$00
$1.9 $1.9 $1.8 $1,9
$0.8 $0.8 $O.B $0.8
$2.7 $2.7 $2.6 $2.7
$1.2 $1.2 $1.1 $1.2
$3.9 $3.9 $3.7 $3.9
151100 15$00 15$00 1511,00
$70 $70 $6S $7.
-13.6% -13.6% -18.2% -13.6%
Source: urban Metrics inc.
1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for home improvemenl centre stores only.
2) urbanMetrics inc. estimate
3) Excluding any addiUonal residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
4) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square fool GLA.
Table3-D.1
CLARlNf!ON
DSTM EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
ZOO:DoIlars
ZOO:Dollars
Clarinaton
Income Index To Proyince
DSTM Index to Province
Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (3
Population (From Table 1)
Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions)
Department Store Share @
Department Store Share Potential ($Millions)
Non-Department Store DSTM Share @
Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)
2003
$3,594
$100
$3,694
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
99.40
99.64
$3,680 $3,790 $3,900 $3,955 $4,230 $4.400
77,200 81,500 84,910 86,600 96,900 103,000
$284.1 $308.9 $331.1 $342.5 $409.9 $453.2
26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0%
$75.3 $81.9 $87.7 $99.3 $118.9 $131.4
73.5% 73.5% 73.5% 71.0% 71.0% 71.0%
$208.8 $227.0 $243.4 $243.2 $291.0 $321.8
Province of Ontano
Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (1
Plus: Selected Wholesale (Computer/Office Supplies) (2
Total Per Capita DSTM Expenditures
Source: urbanMetrics inc.
1) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-00S) and Monthly Retail Trade data.
2) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Wholesale Trade (special tabulation).
3) Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the OSTM regression equation of y =40 -a .6(x) where x is the
income index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded)
4) Estimated based an eyaluation of the survey results, the provincial average and knowledge of the local market
Table 4 - 0-1
CLARINIDN
SCENARIO D . 1
NON DEPARTMENT STORE OSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ,,.mUons)
200Dollars
Clarinaton
Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($MiIlions)
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
2003
2005 2001 2003 2013 2016
$227.0 $243.4 $243.2 $291.0 $321',8
52.5% ~ ,M $130'.'1
$119.2 $130.2 $155.7 $172.2
$71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4
$47.8 $58.8 $58.7 $84.3 $100.8
PROPOSED NON.DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE
West Diamond & Plavers _ Loblaws DSTM ComoonentlOther Ancillary DSTM Soace 46~OO 46~OO "'00 46~00
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $300 $310 $335 $360
Total Sales Volume $14.0 $14.5 $15.1 $16.8
Less: lnflow@ 30% {2 $4.2 $4.4 $4.7 $5,.
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $9.8 $10.1 $11.0 11.8
WeSt;jjfaRio:~d'g,'PI~ve"~'~'Lobljws;EJ(banS;fijh:iR.ir;catitin"(sssOMEl.DsTMf ",'i" :':T;:l1;1,0,~,;t'; >/ "T2'~~'};Y}} }l~2l~Ql!}}}'}TBl}T.2'199}}i
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $300 $310 $335 $360
Total Sales Volume $6.4 $6.6 $7.1 $7.7
Less: Inflow@ 30% {2 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 $2.3
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $4.5 $4,6 $5.0 $5.4
Clarinaton Place EXDansion 81~00 81~OO 81POO 81POO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $275 $285 $310 $34.
Total Sales Volume $22.5 $23.3 $25.4 $27.8
Less: Inflow@ 30% {2 $6.8 $7,. $7.6 $8.3
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $15.7 16.3 $17.8 $19.5
Toraan 75flOO 75fl00 75POO 75POO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $280 $270 $300 $320
Total Sales Volume $19.5 $20.3 $22.5 $24.0
Less: Inflow@ 30% {2 $5.9 $6.1 $6.8 $7.2
Total Sales Required from Clarlngton Residents $13.6 14.2 $15.7 $16.8
Clarinaton Centre. Loblaws RetenantinalExoansion of Centre 82~00 82~OO 82~00 82~OO
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA $275 $285 $310 $34.
Total Sales Volume $22.6 $23.4 $25.5 $27.9
Less: Infloy,t@ 30% {2 $6.8 $7.0 $7.7 $8.4
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents 15.8 16.4 $17.8 $19.5
other Bowmanvllle . Local Central Areas 15POO 15"00 1SPOO 15POO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $200 $210 $230 $250
Total Sales Volume $3.0 $3.2 $3.5 $3.8
less: Inflow@ 15% (2 $0,5 $0.5 $0,5 $0.6
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $2.5 $2.7 $3.0 $3.2
Valiant. Courtlce Main Central Area 7SPOO 75fl00 7SPOO 751)00
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA $280 $260 $280 $30.
Total Sales Volume $18.8 $19.5 $21.0 $22.5
Less: lnflow@ 50% {2 $9.4 $9.8 $10.5 $11.3
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents 8,4 g] $10.5 $11.2
Newcastle Villaae 10POO 10POO 10POO 10POO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $200 $210 $230 $250
Total Sales Volume $2.0 $2.1 $2.3 $2.5
Less: Inflow@ 15% {2 $0.3 $0.3 $0,3 $0.4
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $1.7 1.8 $2.0 $2.1
continued!
$208.8
34.2%
$71.4
$71.4
N1A
Table 4 . D - 1 continued
CLARINDJN
SCENARIO D. 1
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANAlYSIS Iftlillions)
200Dollars
Total Clarington - ProposedIPotential Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space (Net)
TOTAL SALES. Proposed/Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space ($ Millions)
Average Sales Per Square Feel ~ Proposed
Less: TOTAL Wholesale Trade (ifWMC)
Less: TOTAL ESTIMATED INFLOW SALES - Proposed/Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space
($Millions)
Average Inflow
A. TOTAL REQIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
B. TOTAL NON-OEPARTMENT STORE RESIDUAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE
TOTAL SALES TRANSFERS REQlRED A. LESS B.)
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL POTENTIAL FOR EXISTINGJOTHER FUTURE PROPOSED SPACE (4
EXISTING ClARINGTON NON.DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE:
Sales from Clari n Residents ($ Millions) (ir>cludi
2007 200B 2013 2016
407'00 40nOO 407'00 4OnOO
$108.8 $112.9 $123.0 $133.0
$265 $275 $300 $325
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
$35,8 $37.1 $40.2 $43.5
'" '" '" '"
$73.0 $75.8 $82.8 $89.5
$58.8 $58.7 $84.3 $100.8
$4.2 $7.1 ""ne none
none none $.' $1.3
Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) $I $J " II Ii
Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3% (2 $34.1 $26.4 $25.0 $33.7 $38.4
TOTAL SALES $105.5 $81.7 $77.3 $104.3 $118.9
Total Sq Ft GLA 460~OO 460~OO 46~OO 460pOO 460pOO
EXisting Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 $30 $7. $70 $25 $60
Change in Total Sales From Existing Level -22.5% -26.8% -1.1% 12.7%
Source:
1)
2)
3)
4)
urbanMetrics inc.
Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
urbanMetrics inc. estimate based on licence plate surveys and the locationltype of proposed/existing space.
Rounded to the nearest the nearest $5 per square foot.
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
Table5-D-1
CLARINIDN
SCENARIO D - 1
DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ($JIillions)
2003
2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$81.9 ~87.7 $99.~ $118.9 $131.4
47.5%$1 'Jmti '" ~, _iB
$38.9 $41.7 $49.7 $59.5 $65.7
$12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8
$26.1 $28.9 $36.9 $46.7 $52.9
105,600 145,600 145,600 145,600
$380 $400 $450 $500
$40,1 $58.2 $65.5 $72.8
$12.0 $17.5 $19.7 $21.8
$28.1 $40.7 $45.8 $51.0
$28.9 $36.9 $46.7 $52.9
none ,.. none none
... none ... ',9
Clarinaton
Departmenl Store Expenditures
Clarington Share (%) {1
Clarlngton Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
$75.3
17.0%
$12.8
$12.8
NJA
PROPOSED DEPARTMENT STORE
Proposed Wal-Mart (Phase 1 and Phase 2 Expansion) - Square Feet GLA
Wal-Mart Department Slore Sales Per Square Foot
Total Estimated Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
TOTAL RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Zellers
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER CLARINGTON PROPOSED/DESIGNATED SPACE (4
EXISTING CLARlNGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE:
,Sales from Clari on Residents $ Millions)
Net Sales from Clarlngton Residents ($Millions) " " .. " ~
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $5.5 $5.7 $3.8 $5.8 $6.2
TOTAL SALES $18.3 $19.1 $12.6 $t9.3 $20.7
Total Sq Ft GLA 90pOD 95fiOa 951)00 95j)OO 95fiOO
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 'OS SOD $30 SOO ".
Change in TOTAL Sales From Existing Levels -2.4% -36.60/. -2.4% 4.9%
Source:
1)
2)
3)
4)
urbanMetrics inc.
Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Claringlon Centre.
Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot gross leasable area.
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
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Table 1 - D . 2
CLAR/Nro N
SCENARIO 0-2
HOME AND AUTO WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ("'illions
200:Dollars
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$20,5 $22.4 $23,.8 $24,7 $29,8 $32.4
'\\t
76,5% 80,0% " _4._'
$lS,7 $17,9 $19,0 $19,6 $23,7 $25,9
$15.7 $15,7 $15,7 $15.7 $15,7 $15.7
NIA $2.2 $3,3 $4,1 $8,0 $10,2
Clarinaton
Home & Auto Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual POlential from Clarington Residents
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow@ 30%
Total Sales Required lrom Clarington Residents
Total Home and Auto Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents
(2
$275 $285 $300 $315
$4.2 $4.3 $4,6 $4,8
$1.3 $1.3 $1.4 $1.4
U $,0 $,2 $,'
$3.3 $4,1 $8.0 $10.2
none none none none
.,. $.1 ... ...
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (induding Canadian Tire and DSTM stores)
based on Available Residual
ADDITIONAL H & A RESIDUAL AVAILABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORES/EJ6TING (3
Net Sales from C/arington Residents
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2
TOT AL ESTIMATED SALES (Canadian Tire)
Total Sq Ft GLA
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4
Change in Total Sales From Existing Level
$15.7
$6.7
$22.4
74~OO
$00
$15.4 $16.0 $19.6 $21.7
$6.6 $6.9 $8A $9.3
$22.0 $22.9 $2B.0 $31.0
74~OD 7 4~OD 74~O 74600
89S $0' $7' tl'
~1.9% 1.9% 24.B% 3B.2%
Source: urbanMetricsinc.
1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for Canadian Tire Stores only.
2) urbanMetrics inc. estimate
3) Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
4) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot GlA.
Table 2 .0-2
CLARINfDN
SCENARIO D-2
HOME IMPROVEMENT (HI) STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (iMillions)
2003Jollars
Clarinaton
Home Improvement Store Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$18.1 $19.6 $21,2 $22,1 $26.2 $28.8
12.3% 65,O%~1ID !!'.lllilllil ~
$2,2 $12.7 $17,0 $17.7 $21,0 $23,0
$2,2 $2.2 $2,2 $2.2 $2,2 $2.2
N/A $10.5 $14,8 $15.5 $18,8 $20,8
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: VlJholesale/Contrador Trade @%
Less: Inflow@! 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
(2
(2
$230 $240
$18.6 $19.4
$5.6 $5,8
$3.9 $4,1
',1 .,.
$230 $240
$17.6 $16.3
$5.3 $5.5
$3.7 $3.8
... '.0
$17.7 $18.5
$14,8 $1.,S
$2.9 $3.0
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade @%
less: Inflow @. 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
(2
(2
TOTAL SALES REQlRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS FOR A. & B.
Total HI Residual Sales Potential Available from Claringlon Residents
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (including Home Improvement and
DSTM) Based on Available Residual
(2 Estimated Transfers from Existing HI Stores in Clarington '" III II! III
(2 Estimated Transfers from Non-Department Slore DSTM '" ~ " "
(2 Estimated Transfers from Department Store DSTM '" /II II! II!
(2 Estimated Transfers from Canadian Tii'e .. lIT III $
'" U ',0
ADDITI A E IDUAL AVAILABLE 0 T RESIE TIN ( none n~.
$260 $280
$21.0 $22.6
$6,3 $6.8
$4,4 $4.7
$0,3 $1,1
$260 $260
$24.6 $26.5
$7.4 $8.0
$5.2 $5.6
$2.0 $2..
$22.3 $24.0
$18.8 $20.8
$3..
III
$I
II!
III
.,.
$3.2
',2
none
~n.
Net Safes from Glaring/on Residents $2.2 $1.9 $2,0 $1.9 $1.9
Plus: Estimated Inflow30% (2 $0,9 $0.8 $0,9 $0.8 $0.8
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES $3.1 $2.7 $2,9 $2.7 $2.7
Plus Wholesale Trade@)% $1.3 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2
GRAND TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES $4.5 $3.9 $4,1 $3.9 $3.9
Total Sq Ft GLA (Home Improvemant!Lumber stores only) 1saOO 1SaOO 151100 1SaOO 1SaOO
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4 '00 $70 $80 $70 $70
Chan e in Total Sales From Existin Level .13.6% -9.1% -13.6% -13.6%
Source:
1)
2)
3)
4)
urbanMetricsinc.
Based on the results of the lelephone consumer survey for home improvement centre stores only.
urbanMetrics inc. estimate
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot GLA
Table3-D.2
CLAR/NWN
OSTM EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
200:Dollar 5
200:Dollar 5
Clarlnaton
Income Index To Province
DSTM Index to Province
Per Capita OSTM Expenditures (3
population (From Table 1)
Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions)
Department Store Share @
Department Store Share Potential ($MiIlions)
Non-Department Store DSTM Share @
Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)
2003
$3.594
$100
$3,694
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
99.40
99.64
$3,680 $3,790 $3,900 $3,955 $4,230 $4,400
77,200 81,500 84,910 86,600 96,900 103,000
$284.1 $308.9 $331.1 $342.5 $409.9 $453.2
26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5%
$75.3 $81.9 $87.7 $97.6 $116.8 $129.2
73.5% 73.5% 73.5% 71.5% 71.5% 71.5%
$208.8 $227.0 $243.4 $244.9 $293.1 $324.0
Province of Ontario
Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (1
Plus; Selected Wholesale (Computer/Office Supplies) (2
Total Per Capita DSTM Expenditures
Source:
1)
2)
3)
urbanMetrics inc.
Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005) and Monthly Retail Trade data.
Estimated based on statistics Canada, Wholesale Trade (special tabulation).
Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the DSTM regression equation of y =40 .e
income index. Rounded to the nearest$5.00. Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded)
Estimated based an evaluation of the survey results, the provincial average and knowledge of the local market.
.6(x) where x is the
4)
Table4.D.2
CLARINWN
SCENARIO D. 2
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ("'illlons)
2003Jollars
Clarinaton
Non.Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)
Clarington Share (%) (1
Claringlon Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
2003
2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$227.0 $243.4 $244.9 $293.1 $324.0
52.5%'-'-r~V- ili~"
$119.2 $133.9 $134.7 $161.2 $178.2
$71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4
$47.8 $62.5 $63.3 $89.8 $106.8
$208.8
34.2%
$71.4
$71.4
NIA
PROPOSED NON.DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE
West Diamond & Players . Loblaws DSTM ComDonentlOther Ancillarv OSTM Soace 46~00 -- ""00 "'~
Sales/Sq. Fl GLA $300 $310 $335 $360
Total Sales Volume $14.0 $14.5 $15.7 $16.8
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $4.2 $4.4 $4.7 $5.0
Total Sales Required from Claringlon Residents 9.8 10.1 11.0 11.8
We'sfnlamondi&)PlaversiL'.:i;.()\}I~&.E'xDansIon'(as'someDSttvty <> Y,":T; F:;!;Ii:0~~iS9~Jt;i)il'w; @~~_aQ,94;tif0\\!:H~~:~~~~~M'4m ~'.iJ:Q.O}iJj;
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $300 $310 $335 $360
Total Sales Volume $6.4 $6.8 $7.1 $7.7
Less: Inflow @ 30% (2 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 $2.3
Total Sales Required from ClaringtOrl Residents $4,5 4,6 $5.0 $5.4
traiihtttO'rrP'lac'e'fi;;;b'tHerlA'ttEilfarv'OS'tMiSb'acl{f,'ilo'flonfe:beDo:t;': :'.:"}:,:,'cJ ".C 65P,<!<l"ffi\'! ,.5PP,Q'l',l!1',,1'65PJlPljllj;i 'Eii65POOli'
SalesJSq. Ft. GLA $275 $285 $310 $340
Total Sales Volume $17.9 $18.5 $20.2 $22,1
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $5.4 $5,6 $6,1 $6.6
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents 12.5 $12.9 $14.1 15.5
Clarinaton Place ExDanslon 811}00 81~OO 811}00 81~00
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $275 $285 $310 $340
Total Sales Volume $22.5 $23,3 $25,' $27.8
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $6.8 $7.0 $7.6 $8.3
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents 15.7 16.3 17.8 19.5
Toraan 75POO 7SPOO 75POO 75POO
Sales/Sq. Fl GLA $260 $270 $300 $320
Total Sales Volume $19,5 $20.3 $22.5 $24.0
Less: lnflow@ 30% (2 $5,9 $6.1 $6.8 $7.2
Tolal Sales Required from Clarington Residents $13,6 14,2 15.7 $16.8
Clarinaton Centre. Loblaws RetenantinalExDanslon 82~00 82~00 82'00 82'00
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $275 $285 $310 $340
Total Sales Volume $22.6 $23.4 $25.5 $27.9
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $6.8 $7.0 $7.7 $8.4
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residenls $15.8 $16.4 17.8 19.5
Other Bowmanvi1le - Local Central Areas 15000 15POO 15Cl00 ,spoo
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $200 $210 $230 $250
Total Sales Volume $3.0 $3.2 $3.5 $3.8
Less: Inflow@ 15% (2 $0.5 $0.5 $0.5 $0.6
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $2.5 $2.7 $3,0 $3,2
Valiant - Courtice Main Central Area 75POO 75iHlO 7SPOO 75POO
Sales/Sq. Fl GLA $250 $260 $280 $300
Total Sales Volume $18.8 $19.5 $21.0 $22.5
Less: Inflow@ 50% (2 $g.4 $9.8 $10.5 $11.3
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents 9.4 $9.7 10.5 $11,2
Newcastle ViIlaae 10POO 10POO 1WOO 10POO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $200 $210 $230 $250
Total Sales Volume $2,0 $2.1 $2.3 $2.5
Less: Inflow@ 1S% (2 $0,3 $0.3 $0.3 $0.4
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residenls 1,7 $1.8 2,0 $2,1
conlinued,
Table 4. D. 2 continued
CLARINf10N
SCENARIO D - 2
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (!Milllons)
200IJollars
Total Clarington - ProposedlPotential Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space (Net)
TOTAL SALES - Proposed/Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space ($ Millions)
Average Sales Per Square Feet - Proposed
Less: TOTAL Wholesale Trade (ifWMC)
Less: TOTAL ESTIMATED INFLOW SALES. ProposedlOesignated Non-Department Store DSTM Space
($Millions)
Average Inflow
A. TOTAL REQIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
B. TOTAL NON-DEPARTMENT STORE RESIDUAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE
TOTAL SALES TRANSFERS REQlRED (A. LESS B.)
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL POTENTIAL FOR EXISTING/OTHER FUTURE PROPOSEO SPACE 4
2007 2008 2013 2016
472'00 472'00 472~OO 472~00
$126.7 $131A $143.2 $155.1
$270 $280 $305 $330
$0,0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
$41.2 $42.7 $46.3 $50,1
,. ,. ,. 0;
$85,5 $88.7 $96,. $105.0
$62.5 $63.3 $89.8 $106.8
'3.0 '5.4 $,1 none
none none none $.8
EXISTING CLARINGTON NON.DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE:
Sales from Glarington Residents ($ Millions) (Includill9 addl residual)
Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($MiHions) " , II! ., ~
Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3% (2 $34.1 $22.3 $21.1 $29.7 $34.0
TOTAL SALES $105.5 $69.0 $65.3 $91.9 $105.3
Total Sq Ft GLA _DO 460900 460900 460900 460900
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 $30 $50 $40 $00 $30
Ghange in Tolal Sales From Existin Level .34.6% -38.1% -12.9% -0.1%
Source:
1)
2)
3)
4)
urbanMetrics inc.
Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
urbanMetrics inc. estimate based on licence plate surveys and the localionttype of proposed/existing space.
Rounded to the nearest the nearest $5 per square fool.
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
TableS-D-2
CLARINGJN
SCENARIO D - 2
DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ("llllons)
2003
Clarinaton
Department Store Expenditures
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
$75,3
17.0%
$12.8
$12.8
NIA
2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$81.9 $87;7 ^ $97.6 $116.8 $129.2
47.5% ~ ; -
$38.9 $41.7 $48.8 $58.4 $64.6
$12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8
$26.1 $28.9 $36.0 $45.6 $51.8
$380 $400 $450 $500
$40.1 $58.2 $65.5 $72.8
$12.0 $17.5 $19.7 $21.8
$28.1 $40.7 $45.8 $51.0
$28.9 $36.0 $45.6 $51.8
none ',7 '.2 none
'.8 none None U
PROPOSED DEPARTMENT STORE
Proposed Wal-Mart (Phase 1 and Phase 2 Expansion) - Square Feet GLA
Wal-Mart Department Store Sales Per Square Foot
Total Estimated Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
TOTAL RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CtAR1NGTON RESIDENTS
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Zellers
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER ClARINGTON PROPOSEDIDESIGNATED SPACE 4
EXISTING CLARINGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE:
Sales from C1arln n Residents ($ Millions
Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) " ~ $) JI .
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $5.5 $5.8 $3.4 $5.3 $5.7
TOTAL SALES $18.3 $19,3 $11.3 $17.7 $19.1
Total Sq Ft GLA 90peO 9SjiOO 95jiOO 95jiOO 95~
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 '05 '00 $20 18. '00
Ch. e in TOTAL Sales From Existing Levels -2.4% -41.5% .9.80/. .2.4%
Source:
1)
2)
3)
4)
urbanMetricsinc.
Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Clarington Centre.
Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot gross leasable area.
Exduding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
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Table 1 ~ 0 - 3
CLARINW N
SCENARIO D-3
HOME ANO AUTO WARRANTEO SPACE ANALYSIS (flIillions ]
2003Jollars
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$20,5 $22.4 $23,8 $24,7 $29,6 $32.4
76.5% 80,0% _~1ilI!Il
$15,7 $17,9 $19.0 $19,8 $23,7 $25,9
$15,7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7
NIA 2,2 3,3 4,1 8,0 10.2
Clarinaton
Home & Auto Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Claringlon Residents
Total Home and Auto Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents
(2
$315
$4.2 $4,3 $4_6 $4.8
$1.3 $1.3 $1.4 $1.4
U $,0 $,2 $,4
$3.3 $4.1 $8.0 $10.2
"",. none ""'" "0"'"
U ." ... U
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Claringlon Stores (induding Canadien Tire and DSTM stores)
based on Available Residual
ADDITIONAL H & A RESIDUAL AVAILABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORESlEM3T1NG
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES (Canadian Tire)
TotatSq FtGlA
Existing Sales Per Square Feel GLA (4
Chan in Tolal Sales From Existing level
urbanMelric:sinc.
Based on the rEllSl.llts of the telephone consumer survey for Canadian Tire Stores only.
Rounded lonearesl1,OOO square feet GLA
$6.7
$22.4
7_
'00
$5.2 $5.3 $8,6 $7.7
$22.0 $22.9 $28.0 $31.0
74tiOD 74~O 7~D 74j;00
1.5 $OS m ,15
-1.9% 1.9% 24.8% 38.2%
Source:
1)
2)
Table 2 - 0 - 3
CLARlNflON
SCENARIO D.3
HOME IMPROVEMENT (HI) STORE WARRANTEO SPACE ANALYSIS ("'illions)
200Dollars
Clarinaton
Home Improvement Store Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clanngton Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
R 'd I P \ ti I f CI R 'd t
2003
2005
2007
2008
2013
2016
$21.2
$22,1
$26.2
$28.6
eSI ua oen a rom anng on eSI en s
PROPOSED HOME IMPROVEMENT SPACE "".... I
kY "'i:;~YJ)'.H6rTie'~p:0(:::s~w'ai~:'F.~~W~LA:;" ;ii'......,. i.'W--.'i
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $230 $240 $260 $280
Total Sales Volume $18.6 $19.4 $21.0 $22.6
Less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade @% (2 $5.6 $5.8 $6.3 $6.8
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $3.9 $4,1 $4.4 $4,7
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $,1 $.' 10.3 $1.1
.,'..'.. ,.,...c.:
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $230 $240 $260 $280
Total Sales Volume $17.6 $18.3 $24.6 $26.5
Less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade @% (2 $5.3 $5.5 $7.4 $8.0
Less: Inflow @. 30% (2 $3.7 $3.8 $5.2 $5.6
Tolal Sales Required from Clarington Residents .,. $.0 $2.0 $2.9
TOTAL SALES REOIRED FROM ClARINGTON RESIDENTS FOR A. & B. $17.7 $18.5 $22.3 $24.0
Total HI Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents $14.8 $15.5 $18.8 $20.8
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (including Home Improvement and
DSTM) Based on Available Residual $2.9 $3.0 $3,S $3.2
(2 Estimated Transfers from Existing HI Stores in ClaringtOl'l " '3 '2 f3 '3
{2 Estimated Transfers from Non-Department Store DSTM 0; V " If ~
(2 Estimated Transfers from Department Store DSTM ,. f/ Ii! Ii! "
(2 Estimated Transfers from Canadian Tire " 11 III '" III
" U ... ... U
ADDITIONAL HI RESIDUAL AVAILABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORESJE)6TING {3 none nClne nOM none
$18,1
12,3%
$2,2
$2.2
NIA
$19.6
65.0%2
$12.7
$2,2
$105
$17.0
$2,2
$148
$17.7
$2.2
$15 .
$21,0
$2,2
$188
$23.0
$2,2
$208
EXISTING CLARINGTON HI SPACE:
Sales from Clarin
,~~~:W,~
'&/A'Jijbi
Plus; Estimated Inflow 30% {2
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES
Plus Wholesale Trade@l%
GRAND TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES
Total Sq Ft GLA (Home Improvement/Lumber stores only)
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4
Chan in Total Sales From Existing Level
$0.9
$3.1
$1.3
$4.5
15POO
'00
,0'
$0.8 $0.9 $0.8 $0.8
$2.7 $2.9 $2.7 $2.7
$1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2
$3.9 $4.1 $3.9 $3,9
15$00 15$00 15pOO 15POO
$70 $80 $70 $70
-13.6% -9.1% -13.6% -13.6%
Source: urbanMetrics inc.
1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for home improvement centre stores only.
2) urbanMetrics ioc. estimate
3) Exduding any additional residual potential required from other store types allalyzed.
4) Rounded lathe nearest $5 per square foot GLA.
Table 3.0 - 3
CLARJNOON
DSTM EXPENDITURE POTENTiAl OF CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
200IDollar 5
200:DoIlar s
Clarinaton
Income Index To Province
DSTM Index to Province
Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (3
Population (From Table 1)
Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions)
Department Store Share @
Department Store Share Potential ($Millions)
Non-Department Store DSTM Share @
Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)
2003
$3,594
$100
$3.694
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
99.40
99.64
$3,680 $3,790 $3,900 $3,955 $4,230 $4,400
77,200 81,500 84,910 86,600 9<>.900 103,000
$284.1 $308.9 $331.1 $342.5 $409.9 $453.2
26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5%
$75.3 $81.9 $87.7 $90.8 $108.6 $120.1
73.5% 73.5% 73.5% 73.5% 73.5% 73.5%
$208.8 $227.0 $243.4 $251.7 $301.3 $333.1
Province of Ontario
Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (1
Plus: Selected Wholesale (Computer/Office Supplies) (2
Total Per Capita DSTM Expenditures
Source:
1)
2)
3)
urbanMetrics inc.
Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-DOS) and Monthly Retail Trade data.
Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Wholesale Trade (special tabulation).
Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents USing the DSTM regression equation of y >40 -e
the income index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded)
Estimated based an evaluation of the survey results, the provincial average and knowledge of the local market.
.6(x) where x is
4)
Table 4. D- 3
CLARJNEON
SCENARIO 0 . 3
NON DEPARTMENT STORE OSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS {fJliIlionsl
200:Dollars
Clarlnaton
Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($MiUions)
ClaringtOl1 Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
2003
$208.8
34,2%
$71.4
$71.4
N/A
PROPOSED NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE
West C1amond & Plaver5 _ Loblaws OSTM ComoonentlOther Anclllarv DSTM Soace
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
'WE,'St:bijrrtO"(f&:p:I~Wrs';~;t6br~~.e:xDanslon:-Il:lssum's.OSTMIT:;'
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Ciarington Residents
cri!'rinailin:Plk&J\';'oth.~""Anfitl'anFbSTtIlF$D'~:if:NC):H,6metjeoo(' ","","" ':'\'i;; i"_:::'3.j,-:;~JJ-,d3>
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
less: Inflow @ 30% {2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Clarinaton Place EXDansion
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
TOf'Qan
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Clatington Residents
Clarinoton Centre - Loblaws Retenantina/ExDansion
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow 30% (2
Total Sales from Residents
Total
Total Sales Volume Less Wholesale Trade @l%
Less; Inflow @ 40% {2
Total Sales from Residents
Less Estimated Transfers from Clarington Supermarkets
~~t Tot~~;~I~~,.~,~~~rl:l~fr()fl1,?,I_~,ri,n,gb:Hl,R~s,i~~~
AYTi'I1iiisuinl1,80%~cr:1g00fio,sti:ft'.o"'Total'CRU:(22660'(f$'&:ftfii''o$TM):'':
Sales/Sq. Fl GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Other Bowmanvllle - Local Central Areas
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow@ 15% {2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Valiant. Courtice Main Central Area
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less; Inflow @ 50% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Newcastle vmaoe
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 15% (2
Total Sales R uired from Clarin ton Residents
2005
2007
2008
2013
2016
$227.0 ~ " . $2~3.~ $,251.7, $301.3 $~33.,1
52,5%1'~1\\V~~
$119.2 $133.9 $163.6 $203.4 $224.8
$71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4
$47.8 $62.5 $92.2 $132.0 $153.4
46~OO
$300
$14.0
$4.2
$9.8
"';<::1(2'1:;'\1)1):;';[1;:',',;
$300
$6.4
$1.9
$4,5
";':"jifi'i!,~'l;i~@::':'f:;;:-P
'$275'
$17.9
$5.4
$12.5
81000
$275
$22.5
$6.8
$15,7
751>00
$260
$19.5
$5.9
13.6
82~OO
$275
$22.6
$6.B
15.8
46~OO
$310
$14.5
$4.4
10.1
";':n;l9O'JII~i)lL~~
$310
$6.6
$2.0
,6
":65~.'H
$18.5
$5.6
$12.9
811K10
$285
$23.3
$7.0
$16.3
75000
$270
$20.3
$6.1
$14.2
82'00
$285
$23,4
$7.0
16.4
46~OO
$335
$15.7
$4.7
$11.0
W21~99'Xif;W0t4L
$335
$7.1
$2.1
5.0
::";.EL~,5(l1lO:,3;::Y !ii:
1310
$'20,2
$6,1
14.1
81~OO
$310
$25A
$7.6
17.8
75POO
$300
$22.5
$6.8
$15.7
82'00
$310
$25.5
$7.7
$17,B
46POO
$360
$16.8
$5.0
11.8
:2:1~,Q9,:ttti
$360
$7.7
$2.3
5,4
H651fQ(1C,,'
$340
$22.1
$6.6
15.5
81~0
$340
$27.8
$B.3
19.5
75000
$320
$24.0
$7.2
$16.8
82'00
$340
$27.9
$8.4
$19.5
'...",;,ii;;:::U~'"
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
';<';;'j:i~WW
$0.0
$0.0
.0
15POO
$200
$3.0
$0.5
2,S
75POO
$250
$18.8
$9.4
9,'
10POO
$200
$2.0
$0.3
$1.7
$72.7
$58,2
$23.3
$34.9
$10.0
$24.9
,"H{,ooPO 'i.
$265
$25.7
$7.7
18.0
15j)OO
$210
$3.2
$0.5
$2.7
751>00
$260
$19.5
$9.8
9,7
10POO
$210
$2.1
$0.3
1.B
$77.0 $81.4
$61.6 $65.1
$24.6 $26.0
$37.0 $39.1
$10.0 $10.0
27.0 $29.1
;LYH:;W~~OO~~;~tHL1~;trill,~QO$Qf!~
$55.8 $61.2
$16.7 $18.4
39.1 $42.
151H10 151>00
$230 $250
$3.5 $3.8
$0.5 $0.6
$3.0 $3.2
75POO 75000
$2BO $300
$21.0 $22.5
$10.5 $11.3
10.5 $11.2
10Poo 10POO
$230 $25
$2,3 $2,5
$0.3 $0.4
2.0 2.1
continued
Table 4. D - 3 continued
CLARINltJN
SCENARIO D - 3
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS CtJllllionsl
200:Dollars
Total Clannglon - ProposedJPotenlial Designaled Non~Department Store DSTM Space (Net)
TOTAL SALES - Proposed/Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space ($ Millions)
Average Sales Per Square Feet - Proposed
Less: TOTAL Wholesale Trade (ifWMC)
Less: TOTAL ESTIMATED INFLOW SALES ~ Proposed/Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space
($Mlllions)
Average Inflow
Less: Transfers from Supermarket
TOTAL SALES REQIRED FROM CLAR1NGTON RESIDENTS - Clarington Proposed DSTM
B. TOTAL NON-DEPARTMENT STORE RESIDUAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE
TOTAL NON-DEPT STORE DSTM SALES TRANSFERS REQlREO IA. LESS B.
NET ADDITIONAL RESIOUAL POTENTIAL FOR EXISTING/OTHER FUTURE PROPOSED SPACE {4
2007 2008 2013 2016
472~OO 707j$OO 797 797jU)0
$126.7 $229.8 $276.0 $297.7
$270 $325 $345 $375
$0.0 $14.5 $15.4 $16.3
$41.2 $73.7 $B7.6 $94.5
0; .. .. ..
IIJ IIJ IIJ "
$85.5 $131.6 $163.0 $176.9
$62.5 $92.2 $132.0 $153.4
*3.0 $9.4 '1.0 .3,.
nono none nono none
EXISTING CLARINGTON NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE:
Sales from Clann ton Residents $ Millions} (incllxlillg addl l"9SiduaO
Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) " , I! '" IJ
Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3% (2 $34.1 $22.3 $14.4 $18,3 $21.9
TOTAL SALES $105.5 $69.0 $44,7 $56.6 $67.9
Tolal Sq Ft GLA 4~OO 460~OO 460900 460~OO 460~OO
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 .30 $50 .. $2. $4S
Change in Total Sales From Existin Level .34.6% -57.6% -46.4% -35.6%
Source:
1)
2)
3)
4)
urbanMelrics Inc.
Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
urbanMetrics inc. estimate based on licence plate surveys and the IQCC!tion/type of proposed/existing space.
Rounded to the nearest the nearest $5 per square foot.
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
Table 5-0- 3
CLARINfDN
SCENARIO 0 - 3
DEPARTMENT STORE OSTM WARRANTED SPACE AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ($AlIlionsl
2003
Clarinaton
Department Store Expenditures
Clarington Share (%) (1
Claringtoo Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
$75.3
17.0%
$12.8
$12.8
N/A
2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$81.9 $87.7 ~90.~ $10~.6, ~120.1
47.5%~~"::~-
$38.9 $41.7 $45.4 $54.3 $60.1
$12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8
$26.1 $28.9 $32.6 $41,5 $47,3
$380
$40.1 $58.2 $65.5 $72.8
$12.0 $17.5 $19.7 $21.8
$28.1 $40,7 $45.8 $51.0
$28.9 $32.6 $41.5 $47.3
none ',1 U '.7
',8 none None None
PROPOSED DEPARTMENT STORE
Proposed Wal-Mart (Phase 1 and Phase 2 Expansion) Square Feet GLA
Wal-Mart Department Sto~ Sales Per Square Foot
Total Estimated Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
TOTAL RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Zellers
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER CLARINGTON PROPOSED/DESIGNATED SPACE (4
N I PA M R P E:
Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions
Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) " " " IIJ "
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $5.5 $5.8 $1,. $3.6 $3,8
TOTAL SALES $18.3 $19.3 $6.4 $11.9 $12.7
Total Sq Ft GLA 90POO 951>00 951>00 951300 95\500
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 $0. $00 '5 '25 '35
Change in TOTAL Sales From Existing Levels -2.4% -68.3% -39.00A. -34.1%
Source:
1)
2)
3)
4)
urbanMetrics ;nc.
Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Clarington Centre.
Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot gross leasable area.
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
Table 6. D ~3
CLARINfDN
SCENARIO D - 3
SUPERMARKET WARRANTED SPACE ANAlYSIS (tJlllllons)
200Dollar 5
2003 2005 2007 200B 2013 2016
$115,B $123.5 $127.4 $133,0 $152.7 $164,4
66,9% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75,0% 75.0%
$77.5 $92,6 $95.6 $99,B $114,5 $123.3
$77.5 $77.5 $77.5 $77.S $77.S $77.5
N/A $15,1 $lB.l $22,3 $37,0 $45,B
Clarhiaton
Supermarket Expenditure Potential ($ Millions)
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Resident:
PROPOSEO SUPERMARKET SPACE
A. Loblaws . Relocation/Expansion to Metros Sile - (additional traditional food component)
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Additional Sales
Less: Inflow (W 10%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Total Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Supermarkets for Loblaws
Net Additional Residual Potential Available for Other Supermarkets (5
3S300 35;iOO 35300 3S300
$470 $475 $500 $525
$16.6 $16.8 $17.7 $1B.S
$1.7 $1,7 $l,B $1.9
$14.9 $15.1 $15.9 $16.6
$1B.1 $22,3 $37,0 $45.B
None None None None
$3.2 $7,2 $21.1 $29.2
from
Plus: Estimated Inflow@.8% (4
TOTAL SALES
Total Sq Ft GLA
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3
Change in Total Sales From Existing level
$BO,7
$19.9
$100,6
177100
$70
4.1%
$74.7
$18,4
$93,1
177~00
$25
-3,8%
EXISTING CLARINGTON SUPERMARKET SPACE:
Source: urban Metrics inc.
1) Year 2003 based on the resurts of the telephone surve'
2) urbanMetrics inc. estimate.
3) Rounded 10 the nearest $5 per sQuare foot
4) urban Metrics inc. estimate based on the licence plate survey results and telephone survey results.
5) Excludes additional transfers from proposed A'YT WMC.
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Table 1- D ~4
CLARINfD N
SCENARIO 0-4
HOME ANO AUTO WARRANTEO SPACE ANALYSIS (",illions )
2003)ol/ars
2003
200S
2007
2008
2013
2016
Clarinaton
Home & Auto Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) {1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
$20,5
76.5%
$15.7
$15.7
N1A
$22.4 $23.8 $24.7 $29.6 $32.4
80.0% ~ ~~ ail .~-
$17,9 $19,0 $19,8 $23.7 $25,9
$15,7 $15,7 $15.7 $'5.7 $15,7
2,2 3,3 $4,' 8,0 10.2
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residenls
Total Home and Auto Residual Sales Polential Available from Clarington Residents
(2
, "q'~qO).:
$275
$4.2
$1.3
...
$3.3
Litji~~~~-m;'Sjj:H
$"'5
$4.3
$1.3
S,.
$4,1
K1~~~'-i:~m
$300
$4.6
$1.4
$.2
$8.0
i!;i1.~~trg'Ui!
$315
$4.8
$1.4
U
$10.2
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (induding Canadian Tire and DSTM stores)
based on Available Residual
"'me
00""
none
none
ADDITIONAL H & A RESIDUAL AVAILABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORES!EM)TING
fA
."
...
...
EXISTING CLARINGTON HOME & AUTO SPACE:
$6.7
$22.4
74tiOO
$00
$5,2 $5.3 $6.6 $7.7
$22,. $22.9 $28.0 $31.0
74tiOO 74liQO 74fiOO 74tiOO
19. SO, S7' '"
-1.9% 1.9% 24.8% 38.2%
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES (Canadian Tire)
Total Sq Ft GLA
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4
Olange in Total Sales From Existing level
Source: urbanMelric& inc.
1) Based on the results of the lelephom:t consumer survey for Canadian Tire Stores only.
2) Rounded 10 nearest. 1,000 square feet GLA.
Table 2 . D - 4
CLARINroN
SCENARIO 0-4
HOME IMPROVEMENT (HI) STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ("'illions)
2003)oltars
2003
2005
2007
2008
2013
2016
Clarinaton
Home Improvement Store Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
$18.1
12.3%
$2.2
$2,2
NIA
$19,6. . ~21.2 ~22,1 ,$26,2 $28,8
650%~~~
$12,7 $17.0 $17,7 $21,0 $23,0
$2.2 $2.2 $2,2 $2.2 $2.2
$10,5 $14.8 $1S.5 $18,8 $20,8
(2 Estimated Transfers from Existing HI Stores in Clarington
{2 Estimated Transfers from Non-Department Store DSTM
(2 Estimated Transfers from Department Store DSTM
(2 Estimated Transfers from Canadian Tire
0;
0;
,.
S;
0;
$230 $240 $260 $280
$18.6 $19.4 $21.0 $22.6
$S.6 $5.8 $6.3 $6.8
$3.9 $4.1 $4.4 $4,7
',1 .', $0.3 $1,1
$230 $240 $260 $280
$17.6 $18.3 $24.6 $26.5
$5,3 $5.5 $7.4 $8,0
$3.7 $3.8 $S,2 $5,6
'.6 ',0 $2.0 $2.9
$17.7 $18.5 $22.3 $24.0
$14.8 $15.5 $18.8 $20.8
$2.9 $3.0 $3.5 $3.2
t3 .. t3 t3
$' fl , P
, II? II? II?
IF .. 1/1 "
U $.0 U $,2
"0'" none "O~ none
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade @%
Less: Inflow !Ii 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
(2
(2
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade@%
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
(2
(2
TOTAL SAlES REQIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS FOR A. & B.
Total HI Residual Sales Potential Available from ClaringtOll Residents
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (including Home Improvement and
DSTM) Based OIl Available Residual
ADDITIONAL HI RESIDUAL AVAIlABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORES/EJlSTING (3
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $0.9 $0.6 $0.9 $0,' $0.6
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES $3.1 $2.7 $2.9 $2.7 $2.7
Plus Wholesale Trade @P% $1.3 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2
GRAND TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES $4.5 $3.9 $4.1 $3.9 $3.9
Total Sq Ft GLA (Home Improvement/Lumber stores only) 151100 15J100 1~OO 15J100 151100
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4 100 $70 $80 $70 $7.
Chan e in Total Sales From Existing Level -13.6% -9.1% -13.6% -13.6%
Source: urbanMetrics inc.
1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey for home improvement centre stores only.
2) urbanMetrlcs inc. estimate
3) Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
4) Rounded 10 the nearest $5 per square foot GLA
Table3-D~4
CLARINfiJON
DSTM EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
2OO3Jollar s
Province of Ontario
Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (1
Plus: Selected Wholesale (Computer/O~ce Supplies) (2
Total Per Capita DSTM Expenditures
2003
$3,594
$100
$3,694
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 201.
99.40
99.64
$3.680 $3,790 $3.900 $3,955 $4,230 $4,400
77,200 81,500 84,910 86,600 96,900 103,000
$284.1 $308,9 $331.1 $342.5 $409.9 $453,2
26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5%
$75.3 $81.9 $87.7 $94.2 $112.7 $124.6
73.5% 73.5% 73.5% 72.5% 72.5% 72.5%
$208.8 $227.0 $243.4 $248.3 $297.2 $328.6
2003)oJlar s
ClarinClton
Income Index To Province
DSTM Index to Province
Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (3
Population (From Table 1)
Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions)
Department Store Share @
Department Store Share Potential ($Millions)
Non-Department Store DSTM Share @
Non~Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)
Source:
1)
2)
3)
urbanMetrics inc.
Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005) and Monthly Retail Trade data.
Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Wholesale Trade (special tabulation).
Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the DSTM regression equation of y =40 -(I
the income index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded)
Estimated based an evaluation of the survey results, the provincial average and knowledge of the local market.
.6(x) where x is
4)
Table4-D-4
CLARINIiON
SCENARIO D - 4
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANAL YSIS (~ilIions)
200Dollars
Clarinaton
Non-Oepartment Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)
Clarington Share(%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
less; Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
2003
2005 2007 2008 2.013 2016
$227.0 $243.4 $248.3 $297.2 $328.6
52.5% 55.0% 57.5% 60,0% 60.0%
$119.2 $133.9 $142.8 $178.3 $197.2
$71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4
$47.8 $62.5 $71.4 $106.9 $125.8
PROPOSED NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE
West Diamond & Plavers _ loblaws DSTM ComoonentlOther Anclllarv DSTM Soace "'00 46aOO 46POO 46POO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $300 $310 $335 $360
Total Sales Volume $14.0 $14.5 $15.7 $16.6
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $4.2 $4.4 $4.7 $5.0
Total Sales Required froni Clarington Residents $9.8 $10.1 111,0 11.8
West:[Wilmon'di&rPlayi'rs;;~"'t!ob'ia';;g':Exjl:la'nsfon{!fassum'et)STM);!J;~;." i'-'X+'ffl:Hh': ~-....!,,,.. "':.vijf;UL:.2.!~OQ:.:. .vili:..!~4Qiii :;':;ii:;i'<!~9L[L[.:;::y;uii:!!~QQ:;fi
'"
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $300 $310 $335 $360
Total Sales Volllme $6.4 $6,6 $7.1 $7.7
Less: lnflow@ 30% (2 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 $2,3
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $4,5 $4.6 5.0 $5.4
CJ'annt.lon'PfieeiiL1tHffeffAiicml:l1\l','c,"sTMi"Sl)ace':lf'N~'.H(;'rn:e:b'eDCP_,;;F'j ,. , >::['\:<:.<':>\;;; ,'.6.II!lO:jfili.:i' "!{~,~:_mjjfiHfJW6~POlJ)2,: ~Q99bl::
.;.."''''..... ..... _.,~"
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $275 $285 $310 $340
Total Sales VolllmB $17.9 $18.5 $20.2 $22.1
less: lnflow@ 30% (2 $5.4 $5.6 $6,1 $6.6
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $12.5 $12.9 14.1 15.5
Clarinaton Place EXDanslon 81~00 811100 81900 8111!lO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $275 $285 $310 $340
Total Sales Volume $22.5 $23.3 $25.4 $27.8
less: Inflow @ 30% (2 $6.8 $7,0 $7.6 $8.3
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $15.7 ~6.3 $17.8 $19.
Toraan 7SPOO 7SPOO 7SPOO 7SPOO
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA $260 $270 $300 $320
Total Sales Volllme $19.5 $20.3 $22.5 $24.0
less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $5.9 $6.1 $6.8 $7.2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $13.6 $14.2 15.7 $16.8
Clarlnaton Centre - Loblaws RetenantinolExcanslon 82~OO 82~OO 8Z~00 82~OO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $275 $285 $310 $340
Total Sales Volume $22.6 $23.4 $25.5 $27.9
less; InfIow@ 30% (2 $6.8 $7.0 $7.7 $8.4
-r: Otal Sale~l3.eqllil"8d" !~~m"Cla,~Tl"~_to.n_ R.es.i~eTl~s 15.8 $16.4 17.8 $19.5
'AYtfailji:in1"eij'O~ol"18()01Jb;"i'aJeof;t6tif[CRtj:{(226'600\~'iftl':i's"bsT:"ii)i\0Yi ~ "jii:;LU, ~. ;';~C;'"""':)g:U;>9Xf'b\y;:j rr:~Q~9Q; !\[l1,; :'its;O~(l;;fA'lTh\\G.iMl:91J99'i{;:
<::".:< :ii\'Y"'"
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $0 $285 $310 $340
Total Sales Volume $0.. $25.7 $55.8 $61.2
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $0.0 $7.7 $16.7 $18.4
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $0,0 18.0 $39.1 $42,8
Other Bowmanvl1le - Local Central Areas 15POO 15lK10 15000 15POO
Sales/Sq. H. GLA $200 $210 $230 $250
Total Sales Volume $3,0 $3.2 $3,5 $3,8
Less: Inflow@ 15% (2 $O,S $0.5 $0,5 $0.6
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents 2,5 $2.7 $3.0 $3,2
Valiant. Courtlce Main Central Area 7SPOO 7SPOO 7SPOO 75POO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $250 $260 $280 $300
Total Sales Volume $18.8 $19.5 $21.0 $22.5
Less: Inflow @ 50% (2 $9.4 $9.8 $10.5 $11.3
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents 9.' 9.7 10.5 $11.2
Newcastle VilIaae 10POO 10poO 10(100 10POO
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $200 $210 $230 $250
Total Sales Volume $2.0 $2.1 $2.3 $2.5
less: lnflow@ 15% (2 $0.3 $0.3 $0.3 $0.4
Total Sales Required from Clarington Resic:lents $1.7 1.8 $2.0 $2.1
continued
$208.8
34.2%
$71,'
$71.4
NIA
Table 4 - D. 4 continued
CLAR/NooN
SCENARIO D. 4
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (,..mlons)
200:Dollars
Total Clarington - Proposed/Potential Designated Non-Department Store OSTM Space (Net)
TOTAL SALES - ProposedlOesignated Non-Department Store DSTM Space ($ Millions)
Average Sales Per Square Feet - Proposed
Less: TOTAL Wholesale Trade (ifWMC)
Less: TOTAL ESTIMATED INFLOW SALES - ProposedlOesignated Non-Department Store DSTM Space
($MiJlions)
Average Inflow
Less: Transfers from Supermarket
TOTAL SALES REQIREO FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS - Clarington Proposed DSTM
B. TOTAL NON-DEPARTMENT STORE RESIDUAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE
TOTAL NOtf.DEPT STORE DSTM SAlES TRANSFERS REQIRED A. LESS B.
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL POTENTIAL FOR EXISTINGIOTHER FUTURE PROPOSED SPACE (4
EXISTING CLARINGTON NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE:
Sales from Clarington
2007 2008 2013 2016
472'00 562 00 652~OO 652~OO
$126.7 $157.1 $100.0 $216.3
$270 $280 $305 $33
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
$41.2 $50.4 $63.0 $68.5
.. a; a; a;
4l 4l 4l 4l
$85.5 $106.7 $136.0 $147.8
$62.5 $71.4 $106.9 $125.8
13.0 $5.3 $9.1 $2,.
none none none none
Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) " , " '" "
Plus; Estimated Inflow 32.3% (2 $34.1 $22.3 $16.4 $19.2 $22.7
TOTAL SALES $105.5 $69.0 $50.7 $59,' $70.2
Total Sq Ft GLA 4~OO ...p.. "OP.O 4601100 4601100
Existing Salas Per Square Feel GLA (3 *'. $50 $10 $3. $50
Change in Total Sales From Existin Level -34.6% -52.0% -43.7% .33.5%
Source:
1)
2)
3)
')
urban Metrics inc.
Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
urban Metrics inc. estimate based on licence plate surveys and the location/type of proposed/existing space.
Rounded to the nearest the nearest $5 per square foot.
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
TableS.D-4
Cl.ARINfDN
SCENARIOD-4
OEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE AND IMPACT ANAL VS1S 1$\,mUons)
2003
Clarlnaton
Department Store Expenditures
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less; Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
$75.3
17.0%
$12.8
$12.8
NfA
2005 2007 2008 20t3 2016
$81.9 $87:~ $94.2 $112.? $124.6
. ,
47.5% ,IG, ,1> "
$38.9 $41.7 $47.1 $56.4 $62.3
$12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8
$26.1 $28.9 $34.3 $43.6 $49.5
105,600 145,600 145,600 145,600
$380 $400 $4S0 $500
$40,1 $58.2 $65.5 $72.8
$12.0 $17.5 $19.7 $21.8
$28.1 $40.7 $45.8 $51.0
$28.9 $34.3 $43.6 $4',5
none 1,4 1.2 1,5
',8 none None None
PROPOSED DEPARTMENT STORE
Proposed Wal-Mart (Phase 1 and Phase 2 Expansion) Square Feet GLA
Wal-Mart Department Store Sales Per Square Foot
Total Estimated Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
TOTAL RESIDUAL SAlES AVAILABLE FROM CLAFUNGTONRESIDENTS
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Zellers
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER CLARINGTON PROPOSEDIOES1GNATED SPACE (4
RI RE RDMA
~ales from Clari ton Residents ($ Millions)
Net Sales from Claringlon Residents ($Millions) " '" f1 " $1
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $5.5 $5.8 $2.7 $4.5 $4,8
TOTAL SALES $18.3 $19.3 $'.' $14.9 $15.9
Total Sq FtGLA 90POO 95J;OO 951300 95J;OO 95J;OD
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 $OS 100 ts 155 I"
Chan e in TOTAL Sales From Existing levels -2.4% -53.7% -24A% -19.5%
Source; urbanMetrics inc.
1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
2) Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Clarington Centre.
3) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot gross leasable area.
4) Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
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Table 1 - D . 5
CLARINEO N
SCENARIO 0-5
HOME AND AUTO WARRANTED SPACE ANAL YSIS (~illions l
2003)01lar5
Clarinaton
Home & Auto Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarlngton Residents
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$20.5 $22.4 $23.8 $24.7 $29.6 $32,4
76.5% 80.0% .~' $1"9.0 ~t!!!!_~_
$15.7 $17,9 $19.8 $23.7 $25,'
$1S.7 $15,7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7
N1A 2,2 3,3 4,1 8,0 10.2
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
less; Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Total Home and Auto Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents
(2
$275 $300
$4.2 $4.3 $4." $4.8
$1.3 $1.3 $1.4 $1.4
U $.0 $.2 $,'
$3.3 $4,1 $8.0 $10.2
none "''''' none none
,.4 .', ... ...
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (including Canadian Tire and DSTM slores)
based on Available Residual
ADDITIONAL H & A RESIDUAL AVAILABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORESIEI6TING
$6.7
$22.4
74f)OO
$0<)
$5,2
$22.0
74pOO
19.
-1.9%
$5.3
$22.9
74POO
$0'
1.9%
$6.6
$28.0
74pOO
17'
24.8%
$7.7
$31.0
74fjOO
'18
38.2%
EXISTING CLARINGTON HOME & AUTO SPACE:
Plus: Estimaled Inflow 30% (2
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES (Canadian Tire)
Total Sq FI GLA
Existing Sales Per Square Feel GLA (4
Change in Total Sales From Existing level
urbanMetricsinc.
Based on the results of the telephonu consumer survey for Canadian Tire Stores only.
Rounded to nearest 1,000 square feet GLA
Source:
1)
2)
Table 2 - D . 5
CLARINEON
SCENARIO 0.5
HOME IMPROVEMENT (HI) STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (,.,i1l1ons)
20031ollar5
2003
2005
2007
2008
2013
2016
Clarinaton
Home Improvement Store Expenditure Potential
Clalington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
$18.1
12.3%
$2.2
$2.2
NlA
$19.6 $21.2
66.0%E"!I!llllllI
$12.7 $17.0
$2.2 $2.2
$10.5 $14.8
$22.1 $26.2 $28.8
'~.~R
$17.7 $21.0 $23.0
$2.2 $2.2 $2.2
$15.5 $18.8 $20.8
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade @%
less: Inflow @: 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
(2 Estimated Transfers from Existing HI Stores in Clarington
(2 Estimated Transfers from Non-Department Store DSTM
(2 Estimated Transfers from Department Store DSTM
(2 Estimated Transfers from Canadian Tire
'"
'"
"
0;
'"
$230 $240 $260 $280
$18.6 $19.4 $21.0 $22.6
$5.6 $5.8 $6.3 $6.6
$3.9 $4.1 $4.4 $4.7
f.1 f.' $0.3 $1.1
$230 $240 $260 $280
$17.6 $18.3 $24.6 $26.5
$5.3 $5.5 $7.4 $6.0
$3.7 $3.8 $5.2 $5.6
f.6 f.O $2.0 $2.9
$17.7 $18.5 $22.3 $24.0
$14.8 $15.5 $18.8 $20.8
$2.9 $3.0 $3.5 $3.2
.. ,. t3 t3
$' ", W ~
II IiI1 '" IiI1
III " f1J "
'.B '.0 ... '2
none n~. none nOM
(2
(2
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade@%
less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Claringlon Residents
(2
(2
TOTAL SALES REQIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS FOR A. & B.
Total HI Residual Sales Potential AVailable from Clarington Residents
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (including Home Improvement and
DSTM) Based on Available Residual
ADDITIONAL HI RESIDUAL AVAILABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORESI86TING (3
EXISTING CLARINGTON HI SPACE:
Sales from Clari on Residents ($Millions)
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES
Plus Wholesale Trade @P%
GRAND TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES
Total Sq Ft GLA (Home hnprovemenUlumber stores only)
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4
Chan e in Total Sales From Existin level
$0.9
$3.1
$1.3
$4.5
151100
,"0
$0.8 $0.9 $0.8 $0.8
$2.7 $2.9 $2.7 $2.7
$1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2
$3.9 $4.1 $3.9 $3.9
151100 151100 15f1iOO 15f1iOO
$70 $80 $70 "0
-13.6% -9.1% -13.6% -13.6%
Source:
1)
2}
3}
4}
lRbanMetricsinc.
Based on Itle results of the telephone OOI1SlJl1ler survey for home improvement centre stores only.
urbanMetlics inc. estimate
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot GLA.
lable3.0-5
CLARINUJN
OSlM EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARlNGTON RESIDENTS
200:Dollars
Province of Ontario
Per Capita OSTM Expenditures (1
Plus: Selected Wholesale (Computer/Office supplies) (2
Total Per Capita DSTM Expenditures
$3,594
$100
$3,694
2013 2016
2003Jo1lars
Clarlnaton
Income Index To Province
DSTM Index to Province
Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (3
Population (From Table 1)
Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions:
Department Store Share @-
Department Store Share Potential ($Millions)
Non-Department Store DSTM Share @
Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Mlllions)
99.40
99.64
$3,6BO
77,200
$284.1
26.5%
$75.3
73.5%
$20B.B
2003
2003
$3,790
81,500
$30B.9
2e.5%
$81.9
73.5%
$227.0
200.
$3,900
84.910.
$331.1
']::24))%4,:;[;(:",'
$79.5
.7;6j)'*1-."''......
.. $251~6
2007 2008
$3,955
86,600
$342.5
l:ii!24,O%ll:;:i:::L
$82.2
::'.;:,7;6j)%:i:; ,,;,
$260.3
$4,230 $4,400
96,900 103,000
$409.9 $453.2
iji:2,4.;9,*,::::L!lif,:,;i,i~4;Q'OOii8iV?;t
,. $9B.4 .. $108.8
;::'.i.t6)}'~~~i~~;1:!ft~9:r~~:~;1
Source:
1)
2)
3)
urbanMetricsinc.
Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005) and Monthly Retail Trade data.
Estimated based on Statistics Cal'\ada, Wholesale Trade (speciallabulalion).
Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the DSlM regression equation of y :40-6
the inoome index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to increase In real terms at a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded)
Estimated based an evaluation of the survey resuns, the provincial average and knowledge of the local market.
4)
.6(x)wherexis
Table4-D-5
CLAR/NOON
SCENARIO D * 5
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (tJIi1lions)
200Dollars
Clarinaton
Non-Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions)
C1arington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
2003
$208.8
34.2%
$71.4
$71.4
NIA
PROPOSED NON.DEPARTMENT STORE OSTM SPACE
West)O'i~fuoncf&:Pla\f4ni;:;]~(lblaWS;Dm'CBm'lionenVOlhe'fiAtiCiiliml'DSTM SDlita
SaleslSq. Fl GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow@ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
:Wliit'br~iWOWd\&pj~\i.i'S'tL(i'tSliWj:Ej[D8n$IO:h':ht5liilime:jjSTMr;_
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
less: Inflow@ 30%
T,ot~ISales_ RequlrE!~ from Clarington ~esidents
ic::ril.tlnot1)tlipi~ci~;;:iOti1'arjAncmaiV1b'STMisD'aceiit:14lS'HOin'eiD'e'iiQt',,'"
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from C1arington Residents
Clarinaton Place Excanslon
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
less: Inflow@ 30%
Total Sales Required from Oarington Residents
Toruan
Sales/Sq. Fl. GLA
Tolal Sales Volume
Less: Innow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from C1arington Residents
CI'atititilO'n:~htre;~:'u,'bj'aWij;EiYj~rision:::i"i';
Sales/Sq. FI. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Innow
Total Sales
(2
(2
(2
(2
(2
"',J:''-:-'"''''''
,,;-'
30%
(2
Residents
Total Sales Volume
Total Sales Volume Less \Vholesale Trade@)%
less: Inflow @ 40% (2
Total Sales from Residents
less Estimated Transfers from Clarington Supermarkets (urbanMetrics est.)
Net Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
;A-yr;rasstiiW8?iio%';3'tL18'tii:i1ioi~:ft!ol~fdi:'3fcRij:'t22666if'j-a:;ftj'i~{)'S'fMlqjii
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
less: Inflow@ 30% (2
Total Sales ReqUired from Clarington Residents
Other Bowmanvllle _ LOcal Central Areas
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
TotalSalesVoIurne
Less: Inflow @ 15% {2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Valiant - Courtice Main Central Area
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
less: Inflow@ 50% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Newcastle Villaae
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow@ 15% (2
Total Sales Required frDlTl Clarington Residents
,~".,',
2005
2007
$227.0
52.5%
$119.2
$71.4
$47.8
$251.6
62.5%
$157.3
$71.4
$85.9
20<1.
$260.3
62.5%
$162.7
$71.4
$91.3
.',,' ,,',;," '>:-<Y;il:~'lFo:i;;: i:':, :n:m;~~~\l;i\5j
$300
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
"""0' ~, 'i-'/,'0ii:O:i!i<'
$300"
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
"";i::;< ''''':T:ll,~jt:i>"
$275
$17.9
$5.4
12.5
81pOO
$275
$22.5
$6.8
15.7
751)00
$260
$19.5
$5.'
13.6
"';;;1.",;>;,;, "';;:;!W::1.:,l,1Wl,ZQj:!F
$350
$4.8
$1.4
3.4
'\:~;:,<";'
$310
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
;;>!::;;:H~;"~E1
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
;;~!lOi'2
" $285"
$18.5
$5.6
12.9
81POO
$285
$23.3
$7.0
16.3
75pOO
$270
$20.3
$0.1
14.2
1i!;stt~lO;lf;i! ;Ht~'ill
$350
$4.9
$1.5
3.4
2013 2016
$311.5 $344.4
62.5% 62.5%
$194.7 $215.3
$71.4 $71.4
$123.3 $143.9
lii;!illil;;nm'Ol;t
$335' ;
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
!EiWJiiW~~~'
$0.0
$0.0
.0
~,;jj;fmErf20iKg00ji70iij:nl:2{jriP
$335 $360
$0.0 $0.0
$0.0 $0.0
0.0 .0
P;itjJtI~~P:9!llifuLt[ijf;;i~~2I1YJJ
$310 $340
$20.2 $22.1
$6.1 $6.6
$14.1 $15.5
81POO 81POO
$310 $340
$25.4 $27.6
$7.6 $8.3
1.6 19.5
7Sl)OO 7!)p00
$300 $320
$22.5 $24.0
$6.8 $7.2
15.7 16.6
:il~!l,<l3:HlIT;gi1Rji!;U;qgmi;
$380 $400
$5.2 $5.5
$1.6 $1.7
3.6 3.8
-.;;"
<C":<2i
$69.0
$55.2
$22.1
$33.1
$10.0
23.1
i:><~8lJ(109Til;
, '$275 '
$49.5
$14.9
34.6
15POO
$200
$3.0
$0.5
2.'
75900
$250
$16.8
$9.4
'.4
10llOO
$200
$2.0
$0.3
1.7
$72.7 $77.0
$58.2 $61.6
$23.3 $24.6
$34.9 $37.0
$10.0 $10.0
24.9 27.0
;"\01~OI!Qq:;;t'i'02t;:1,8_1J1!,0,(t:Hi
<'~~H $285 ''',~, $310
$51.3 $55.6
$15.4 $16.7
35.9 39.1
15pOO 151)00
$210 $230
$3.2 $3.5
$0.5 $0.5
2.7 $3.0
75pOO 75pOO
$260 $280
$19.5 $21.0
$9.8 $10.5
9.7 10.5
10POO 10pOO
$210 $230
$2.1 $2.3
$0.3 $0.3
1.6 2.0
$81.4
$65.1
$26.0
$39.1
$10.0
29.1
i!!hf;~,8,gP9.9i}!i
$340
$61.2
$18.4
2.8
15poO
$250
$3.8
$0.6
$3.2
75poO
$300
$22.5
$11.3
11.2
10lJ00
$250
$2.5
$0.4
2.1
continuedl
Table 4 . 0 - 5 continued
CLARINfDN
SCENARIO D - 5
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANAlYSIS ($It1i11ions)
200Dollars
Total Clarington _ Proposed/Potential Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space (Net)
TOTAl SALES _ proposedlOeslgnated Non-Department Store DSTM Space ($ Millions)
Average Sales Per Square Feet - Proposed
less: TOTAL Wholesale Trade (if WMC)
less: TOTAl ESTIMATED INFLOW SALES. Proposed/Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space
($MiUions)
Average Inflow
less: Transfers from Supermarket
TOTAL SALES REQlREO FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS - Clarington proposed DSTM
B. TOTAL NON-DEPARTMENT STORE RESIDUAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE
TOTAL NON-DEPT STORE DSTM SALES TRANSFERS REQlRED (A. LESS S.)
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL POTENTIAL FOR EXISTINGJOTHER FUTURE PROPOSED SPACE (4
2007 2005 2013 2016
660lJ4)D 660900 660900 66000
$207.0 $215.8 $232.9 $250.8
$315 $325 $350 $380
$13.8 $14.5 $15.4 $16.3
$66.7 $69.5 $74.7 $80.5
,. ,. ,. ,.
., ., ., .,
$116.5 $121.8 $132.8 $144.0
$85.9 $91.3 $123.3 $143.9
$0.6 '0.5 I.' 0.1
none none none none
EXISTING CLARINGTON NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE:
Sales from Clarington Residents ($
'./~iih~;
Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($M~1ions) " " " " II
Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3% {2 $34.1 $18.7 $18.7 $28.5 $33.1
TOTAL SALES $105.5 $57.8 $57.8 $88.3 $102.5
Total Sq Ft GLA 460POO 46DPOO 460lJOO 4601100 4601100
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 13. $.25 126 $9. 120
Change in Total Sales From Existing level -45.2% -45.2% .16.2% -2.8%
Source:
11
21
3)
4)
urbanMetricsinc.
Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
urbanMetrics inc. estimate based on licence plate surveys and the Iocationltype of proposed/existing space.
Rounded to the nearest the nearest $5 per square foot.
Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
Table5-D-S
CLARINfXJN
SCENARIO D. 5
DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE AND IMPACT ANALYSIS (tJlillionsl
2003
200.
2007
2008
2013
2016
Clarinaton
Department Store Expenditures
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share{$)
less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Residents
$75.3
17.0%
$12.8
$12.8
NIA
$81.9 $79.5 $82.2 $98.4 $108.8
17.0%~~
$13.9 $13.5 $14.0 $16.7 $18.5
$12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8
$1.1 $0.7 $1.2 $3.9 $5.7
PROPOSED DEPARTMENT STORE
Proposed Wal-Mart (Phase 1 and Phase 2 Expansion) Square Feet GLA
Wal-Mart Department Store Sales Per Square Foot
Total Estimated Sales Volume
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
TOTAL RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarlngton Zellers
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER CLARINGTON PROPOSED/DESIGNATED SPACE (4
0 0 0 0
$380 $400 $400 $500
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
$0.7 $1.2 $3.9 $5.7
none none none nonlll
'.7 $.2 $.' $.7
Net Sales from Clarlngton Residents ($Mnllons) $l " $l Ii "
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $5.5 $5.7 $5.' $7.1 $7.8
TOTAL SALES $18.3 $19.1 $19.7 $23.6 $26.1
Total Sq Ft GLA 90POO 951)00 9$00 95pOO 95POO
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 $.' too $05 $45 $75
Change in TOTAL Sales From Existing Levels -2.4% 0.0% 19.5% 34.1%
Source: urbanMetrics inc.
1) Based on the results oftha telephone consumer survey (2003).
2) Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Claringlon Centre.
3) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot gross leasable area.
4) Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
Table 6. 0-5
CLARINIiON
SCENARIO D - 5
SUPERMARKET WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (~illionsl
200:.Do/lar s
Clarinaton
Supermarket Expenditure Potential ($ Millions)
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarington Resident
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$115.8 $123.5 $127.4 $133.0 $152.7 $164.4
66.9% 67.0% 67.0% 67.0% 67.0% 67.0%
$77.5 $82.7 $85.4 $89.1 $102.3 $110.1
$77.5 $77.5 $77.5 $77.5 $77.5 $77.5
N/A $5.2 $7.9 $11.6 $24.8 $32.6
PROPOSED SUPERMARKET SPACE
A. Loblaws _ Expansion. Clarington Centre - (additional traditional food component)
Sales/SQ. Ft. GLA
Total Additional Sales
Less: Inflow @! 10%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Total Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Supermarkets for Loblaws
Net Additional Residual Potential Available for Other Supermarkets (5
10000 18POO 18POO 1SPOO
$470 $475 $500 $525
$8.5 $8.6 $9.0 $9.5
$0.9 $0.9 $0.9 $1.0
$7.6 $7.7 $8.1 $8.5
$7.9 $11.6 $24.8 $32.6
None None None None
$0.3 $3.9 $18.7 $24.1
EXISTING CLARINGTON SUPERMARKET SPACE:
Sales from Clarington Residents ($ Millions) (including add\ residual)
'.~~f;ri~H~f~t~::~':wMg,:Ei(f;~WRi'~t~ljg:I::; W:!H~:\';i) '';W,':;> "ji;:::<l: ';...!.).:W.:>
Net Sales from Clarington Residents
Plus: Estimated Inflow @.8% (4
TOTAL SALES
Total SQ Ft GLA
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3
Change in Total Sales From Existing level
'}iY>jj
Em;~':
$77.8
!;" ,t12$'I010."1;:;"12
$67.8
$18.7
$84.5
177~00
'75
.12.5%
$81.4 $94.2 $101.6
kN/N~Jij~oillllifi,~:li\$:1'Ql'Q'f:T~14i0111l\'$f6'itf
$71.4 $84.2 $91.6
$17.6 $20.8 $22.6
$89.0 $105.0 $114.2
177~00 177~00 177~00
$0. $9' ,..
.7.9% 8.6% 18.2%
$77.5
"t!!,,$"Q"!dt!I"
$77_5
$19.1
$96.6
17nOO
$4'
Source: urbanMetrics inc.
1) Year 2003 based on the results of the telephone surve'
2) urbanMetrics inc. estimate.
3) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot
4) urbanMetrics inc. estimate based on the licence plate survey results and telephone survey results.
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Table 1 - 0 - 6
CLARINRJ N
SCENARIO 0-6
HOME AND AUTO WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (f,lillions
200DoJ/ars
2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2016
$20.5 $22.4 $23.8 $24.7 $29.6 $32.4
76.5% 80.0% $19.0 iI!lI!lllII
$15.7 $17.9 $19.8 $23.7 $25.9
$15.7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7
NfA 2.2 3.3 .1 .0 10.2
Clarlnaton
Home & Auto Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Clarlngton Residents
Sales/Sq. Fl. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington ReSidents
(2
$275 $285 $300 $315
$4.2 $4.3 $4.6 $4.8
$1.3 $1.3 $1.4 $1.4
... '.0 '.2 ,.,
$3.3 $4.1 $8.0 $10.2
"''''' none ""'" ""'"
,.. '.1 U ...
Total Home and Auto Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (including Canadian Tire and DSlM stores)
based on Available Residual
ADDITIONAL H & A RESIDUAL AVAILABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORESIEIEiTING
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES (Canadian Tire)
Total Sq Ft GLA
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4
Change in Total Sales From Existin Level
urbanMetricsioc.
Based on the results of the lelept10ne consumer survey for Canadian Tire Stores only.
Rounchild to nearest 1 ,0elO square feet GLA.
$6.1
$22.4
741100
SOO
$5.0 $5.0 $6.4 $7.5
$21.9 $22.7 $27.9 $30.9
74JK10 74~O 741100 74tiOO
". '05 S75 11.
-2.5% 1.3% 24.2% 37.6%
Source:
1)
2)
Table 2- D - 6
CLARINEON
SCENARIO 0-6
HOME IMPROVEMENT (HI) STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (,.,iIIions)
200Dollars
2003
2005
2007
2008
2013
2016
Clarinaton
Home Improvement Store Expenditure Potential
Clarington Share ('Yo) (1
Clarington Share ($)
less: Effective Competition
R .d I Pier If CI gt R 'd I
$18.1
12.3%
$2.2
$2.2
N/A
$19.6 $21.2 $22.1 $26.2 $28.8
__&~_... ._ill '_..Y -
65.0%~R~~HillJ~_\l$llWgllljil.?i{i@,2t~
$12.7 $17.0 $17.7 $21.0 $23.0
$2.2 $2.2 $2.2 $2.2 $2.2
$105 $148 $155 $188 $208
eSI ua 0 nla rom ann on e51 en s
PROPOSED HOME IMPROVEMENT SPACE
'AlAF> ;" ::ej~H~'g~qH::~'ls,c~i1Ysi~ij':~JL~itilD!?'~~::f;$q:~t~;fEi,tW,gi:jj.;U) ,.:.." ';::::::::::":;;;Et\~:i::il;>i>; 'Lt;:jj!;;:Y.:::,
SaleslSq. Ft. GLA $230 $240 $260 $280
Total Sales Volume $19.3 $20.1 $21.8 $23.5
less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade@% (2 $'.8 $6.0 $6.5 $7.1
Less: lnflow@ 30% (2 $4.1 $4.2 $4.6 $4.9
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents t., t.. $0.7 $1.5
........... .T.
.<.<. T..... ........
SalesfSq. Ft. GLA $230 $240 $260 $280
Total Sales Volume $17.6 $18.3 $24.6 $26.5
less: Wholesale/Contractor Trade@% (2 $5.3 $5.5 $7.4 56.0
less: Inflow @. 30% (2 $3.7 $3.8 $5.2 $5.6
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents '.6 t.O $2.0 $2.9
TOTAL SALES REQIRED FROM CLARtNGTON RESIDENTS FOR A. & B. $18.0 $18.9 $22.7 $24.4
Total HI Residual Sales Potential Available from C1arington Residents $14.8 $15.5 $18.8 $20.8
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (including Home Improvement and
DSTM) Based on Available Residual $3.2 $3.4 $3.9 $3.6
{2 Estimated Transfers from Existing HI Stores in Clarington '" '3 U .. 13
(2 Estimated Transfers from Non-Department Store DSTM 0; $I f) " l'
(2 Estimated Transfers from Department Store DSTM " 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2
(2 Estimated Transfers from Canadian Tire 0; IIJ IIJ f) "
0; $.2 I.' U U
ADDITIONAL HI RESIDUAL AVAILABLE FOR OTHER NEW STORES/BGTING (3 none none none none
Plus: Estimatecllnflow 30% (2 $0.9 $0.8 $0.6 $0.8 $0.8
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES $3.1 $2.7 $2.7 $2.6 $2.7
Plus Wholesale Trade@)% $1.3 $1.2 $1.2 $1.1 $1.2
GRANO TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES $4.5 $3.9 $3.9 $3.1 $3.9
Total Sq FtGLA (Home ImprovementJlumberstoresonly) 15POO 15POO 15POO 151100 1~OO
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4 '00 $70 $70 $65 $70
Chan e in Total Sales From Existi Level -13.6% -13.6% -18.2% -13.6%
Source: urbanMetrics inc.
1) Based on lhe results of the telephone consumer survey for home improvement centre stores only.
2) urbanMetricsinc.estlmate
3) Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
4) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot GtA
TabI83~D-6
CLAR1NrDN
DSTM ExPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF ClARINGTON RESIDENTS
2003Jollars
2003
Province of Ontario
Per Capita DSTM Expendilures (1
Plus: Selected Wholesale (Computer/Office Supplies) (2
Total Per Capita D$TM Expenditures
$3,594
$100
$3,694
200:Dollars
Clarinaton
Income Index To Province
DSTM Index to Province
Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (3
Population (From Table 1)
Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions;
Department Store Share @
Department Store Share Potential ($Millions)
Non-Department Store DSTM Share @
Non-Department Store OSTM Potential ($MilIions)
2003
200'
2007
2008
2013
2<l16
99.40
99.64
$3,680
77,200
$264.1
26.5%
$75.3
73.5%
$206.8
$3.790
81,500
$308.9
26.5%
$81.9
73.5%
$227.0
$3,900 $3,955 $4,230 $4,400
84,910 86.600 96,900 103,000
$331.1 $342.5 $409.9 $453.2
i.'i\i;26,$%:Ji.:'11:"'+'" ?a:iq~;:i:!V2*wi2'2~~~4i1ilimf:miilige~~~mjBHllii
. .. "$B7.'7 .. '. .~91,:~".. .~1'_6.8 '''' " $1~;~_..
"';'?t3;s~i0;)im;; ;nijt1;;~j;Glm~jiff.ji~llfii7iii~M!ill1ilii~1t~$i14;~r~i!miili_
$243.4 $244.9 $293.1 $324.0
Source:
1)
2)
3)
urbanMetrics inc.
Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade {Publication 63-005) and Monthly Retail Trade data.
Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Wholesale Trade (special tabulation).
Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the DSTM regression equation of y =40 -()
income index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to Increase in reallerms al a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded)
Estimated based an evaluation of the survey results, the provincial average and knowledge of lhe local market.
.6{x) where x is the
4)
Tabkt4-D-6
CLARINfON
SCENARIO D. 6
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ("'illions)
200Doltars
Clarinaton
Nan-Department Store DSTM Potential ($MiIliOns)
Clarington Share (%) (1
C\arington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residua! Potential from Claringlon Residents
(2
12
(2
Residents
2003
$208.8
34.2%
$71.4
$71.4
NfA
"<i+!f<e,
(2
12
(2
$227.0
52.5%
$119.2
$71.4
$47.8
2007 2008 2013 2016
$243.4 $244.9 $293.1 $324.0
57.5% 57.5% 57.5% 57.5%
$140.0 $140.8 $168.5 $186.3
$71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4
$68.6 $69.4 $97.1 $114.9
2005
"',J>!;;'" "'<"-'O'!
$300
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
<.';:;r>' "":~3~S~~lLiU"\'J
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
o ^<'+;';:;8',';N:JLi: ,,:':0;;,":,
$275 '~,
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
81ltoO
$275
$22.5
$6.8
15.7
75POO
$260
$19.5
$5.9
13.6
82~OO
$275
$22.6
$6.8
15.8
:\':iUU,~f*H;\:W;~~ij!i
$310
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
'''''''''o},;;;i;:
"$31ci"~'
$0.0
$0.0
.0
~\iJ:.</ ,',iU.Di;;gij
$285
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
81lJOO
$285
$23.3
$7.0
16.3
751100
$270
$20.3
$6.1
14.2
82~00
$285
$23.4
$7.0
16.4
Total
Total Sales Volume Less Wholesale Trade@)%
Less: Inflow @ 40%
Total Sales from Residents
Less Estimated Transfers from Clarington Supermarkets (urbanMetrics est.)
Net Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
AYTUill;'iii.ltrii:'!lif%ji8tJi~4700~1m{fl\bf~C)ilil','CRine:SttL'1:434tiO{iii{.fl:ristjSTM~limi
Sales/Sq. Ft GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
AYT~'ILObra~:);iriet:bSfifliorti8hl'ti0l~ 'WiP: ~.., '~:;l!i5'!;: '.0."" j.>>"::d<
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarlngton Residents
Other Bowmanvtlle. local Central Areas
Sales/Sq. FI. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: lnflow@ 15%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Valiant. Courtice Main Central Area
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 50%
Total Sales Required from C1arington Residents
Newcastle Vlllaae
SaleslSq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: lnflow@ 15%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
.0
'" <'TiP;;." '''~~:o;'' id'ilYi'01,147;OO.'
$275
$31.5
$9.5
22.0
'~,>/:+f<'" ""j ."m.."'O.... ::o,.....'::::.':i."/... <2~':"':" .,."
":,,,;:::, :,,: '.''-c:'.'.o:;: :~'$3~:';;:"~:
$15.8
$4.7
11.1
15000
$200
$3.0
$0.5
2.5
75pOO
$250
$18.8
$9.4
$9.4
10POO
$200
$2.0
$0.3
$1.7
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
:!?'41ftii':1:t4:1;Q'O;j1;i:F,rrf"
$285
$32.7
$9.8
22.9
';~~~~~f.1\':jf,
$16.3
$4.9
$11.4
15IHJO
$210
$3.2
$0.'
2.7
751100
$260
$19.5
$9.8
9.7
10(100
$210
$2.1
$0.3
1.8
PROPOSED NON.DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE
iW~:~ftifam'&:fia''&::Plaij.:hi;;;'tb'6Iawi'DstMt:omlib~i;nti()ther,'A:~till~:~'[)S:tMI~a'~\I":":"
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: lnflow@ 30%
Total Sales Required from C1arington Residents
\W~'!rt:b,amori~:f&iPiMWi~:ll.OblawS'iEi:oailst6n:'ta~'$'U;ne'O$TMY:,;';: ,~";
Sales/Sq. Ft GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
'claHnQtoo;#(~c'e:i;'~'Ofh.r;Al1ciila'l4f:DStM'Sbac8"lflil'o:.'4Btna'Oeb6i{>"
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Tolal Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Clarinaton Place Exoansion
Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents
Toraan
SalesJSq. Ft. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less: Inflow @ 30%
Total Sales Required from Claringlon Residents
Clarinaton Centre - Loblaws RetenantlnafExDansion
Sales/Sq. FI. GLA
Total Sales Volume
Less:
Total Sales
12
(2
12
(2
(2
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;!jiWk i\J1~Ji~"7i;1fi;n0~mt~!
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$0,0 $0.0
.0 0.0
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$0.0 $0.0
$0.0 $0.0
0.0 0.0
!f:;;: i.UiJ~;J';oh~'Kt'(
$310
$0.0
$0.0
.0
81lJOO
$310
$25.4
$7.6
17.8
751100
$300
$22.5
$6.8
15.7
82~00
$310
$25.5
$7.7
17.8
iIgm;;i~
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
81lJOO
$340
$27.8
$8.3
19.5
751100
$320
$24.0
$7.2
16.8
82~OO
$340
$27.9
$8.4
19.5
$0.0 $0.0
$0.0 $0.0
$0.0 $0.0
$0.0 $0.0
$0.0 $0.0
.0 0.0
il1':41oo.iliiitf:;1fl:'JlIiJoqrr:;;
$310 $340
$35.6 $39.0
$10.7 $11.7
24.9 27.3
i;;''',~~Qj;t\t:ft>/f,;~.~',O:9.W
$335 "$360
$17.6 $18.9
$5.3 $5.7
$12.3 $13.2
15POO 15POO
$230 $250
$3.5 $3.8
$0.5 $0.6
.0 3.2
75000 75POO
$280 $300
$21.0 $22.5
$10.5 $11.3
10.5 11.2
10000 10000
$230 $250
$2.3 $2.5
$0.3 $0.4
2.0 2.1
continued!
Table 4. D. 6 continued
CLARINWN
SCENARIO D. 6
NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTEO SPACE ANAL vms (!Millions)
200Dollars
Total Clarington - Proposed/Potential Designated Non.Department Store DSTM Space (Net)
TOTAL SALES. ProposedlDesignated Non-Department Store DSTM.Space ($ Millions)
Average Sales Per Square Feet - Proposed
Less: TOTAL Wholesale Trade (if WMC)
Less: TOTAL ESTIMATED INFLOW SALES. Proposed/Designated Non-Department Store DSTM Space
($Millions)
Average Inflow
Less: Transfers from Supermarket
TOTAL SALES REQIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS. Clarington Proposed DSlM
B. TOTAL NON-DEPARTMENT STORE RESIDUAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE
TOTAL NON.DEPT STORE DSTM SALES TRANSFERS REQlREO (A. LESS B.)
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL POTENTIAL FOR EXISTING/OTHER FUTURE PROPOSED SPACE (4
2007 2008 2013 2016
506;!00 506100 506;!OO 506;!00
$135.7 $140.8 $153.4 $166.4
$270 $260 $30' $330
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
$43.9 $45.4 $49.4 $53.6
" " " "
1IJ 1IJ 1IJ ~
$91.8 $95.4 $104.0 $112.8
$6B.6 $69.4 $97.1 $114.9
'3.2 '6.0 U none
none none none $.1
EXISTING CLARINGTON NON.DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE:
Sales from Clarin9l?n Residents ($
Net Sales from Claringlon Residents ($Millions) " Il " " "
Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3% 12 $34.1 $22.1 $20.7 $29.7 $34.0
TOTAL SALES $105.5 $66.4 $64.1 $91.9 $105.3
Total Sq Ft GLA 460,00 460,00 4601100 4601100 4601100
Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 $" ... $.0 SOO $30
Change in Total Sales From Existing Level .35.2% -39.2% -12.9% -0.1%
Source: urbanMelrics inc.
1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
2) urbanMetrics Inc. estimate based on Ucence plate surveys and the locaUontlype of proposedJexisting space.
3) Rounded 10 the nearest the nearest $5 per square foot.
4) Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
Table5-0.6
CLARINroN
SCENARIO D. 6
DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE AND IMPACT ANALYSIS (fiIilllona)
2003
2005
2007
200.
2013
2016
Clarinaton
Department Store Expenditures
Claringlon Share (%) (1
Clarington Share ($)
Less: Effective Competition
Residual Potential from Claringlon Residents
$75.3
17.0%
$12.8
$12.8
NlA
$81.9 $87.7 $97.6 $116.8 $129.2
47.'%1lL~~
$38.9 $41.7 $48.8 $58.4 $64.6
$12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8
$26.1 $28.9 $36.0 $45.6 $51.8
PROPOSED DEPARTMENT STORE
A YT - Wal-Mart - Square Feet GLA
Wal-Mart Department Store Sales Per Square Foot
Total Estimated Sales Volume
Less: Inflow@ 30% (2
Total Sales Required from C1arington Residents
TOTAL RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS
Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clarlnglon Zellers
NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER CLARINGTON PROPOSED/DESIGNATED SPACE (4
105,600 145,600 145,600 145,600
$380 $400 $450 $.00
$40.1 $58.2 $65.5 $72.8
$12.0 $17.5 $19.7 $21.8
$28.1 $40.7 $45.8 $51.0
$28.9 $36.0 $45.6 $51.8
none t.7 1.2 none
I.' none None I.'
Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) .. " '" " "
Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $5.5 $5.7 $3.4 $5.3 $5.7
TOTAL SALES $18.3 $19.1 $11.3 $17.7 $19.1
Total Sq Ft GLA 90lKlO 95tiOO 95JiOO 95jiOO 95JiOO
Existing Sales Per Square Feel GLA (3 1<1' 100 $20 $8' 1<10
Change in TOTAL Sales From Existing Levels -2.4% -41.5% -9.8% -2.4%
Source: urbanMetfics inc.
1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003).
2) Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted In 2003 at Clarington Centre.
3) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot gross leasable area.
4) Exduding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed.
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market, economic and strategic odvisors
APPENDIXB
Warranted Retail Space Analysis
Scenarios B-1 and B-2 (based on D-1 and D-2)
III
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urbanMetrics inc.
market. economic and strategic advisors
APPENDIX D
Proposed Space Evaluated in Comparison to Warranted Space, 2007, 2010 and 2021
APPENDIX D
SUMMARY
RETAIL SPACE ESTlMATES,CLARINGTON. 201 [
TOTAL SPACE
% RETAIL
Bowmanvllle West Main Central Area
Nrllullt
Zellers
SltePfans
Canadian Tire Expansion
"""'~od
Metrus
Walmart Phase 1
Loblaws Phase 1
Potential Clarington Centre expansion
Valiant North
WalmartPhase2
loblaws Phase 2
Sub. T olal Proposed
RETAIL SPACE
(excl. Spec_food. LBW)
15,200
5,600 5,600
100%
40,600
105,600
92,200
37,700
200,900
40,000
21,300
538,300
Sub-TOTAL BOWlville Was t
Plus: Additional Space in loblaws Retail Envelope
Plus: Portion of Other Space as Other Retail. ioeluding Spec. Food est.
TOTAL PROPOSED BOWMANVllLE WEST
S59~OO
15,200 100%
15,600 75%
105,600 100%
66,500 72%
31,700 75%
165,800 83%
40,000 100%
21,300 100%
446,500 83%
4ti7;JOO 84%
25,700
5,000
498t100 89%
255,400
753,400
760,00 01
498,000
151,400
75,000
25,000
251,400
11,000
262,400
760,4001
SCENARiO'
B',.1 ,.B;.~:,:',,: ;
1,542,400 1~580;obo_
760,400 760,4QO<
782(100,: 81~OO
SCE~A~()
e.1 6.2.
652,000., 871,ebc!:
760;400 ;760,400
91poO' t17jWO
SCENARIO
8.1 B-2
665,3,00 704,200
760,400 760;400
40,000 4b,,~
2.1,300 "2'1';300
699,100 699,'100
~13,800 5,;100
EIGTING RETAIL SPACE Bowmanv~le West (including existing lab/eWl! III 50,400 .q.lq
TOTAL SELECTED RETAil SPACE. Existing and Proposec
IMAH;lUM RECOMMENDED RETAil BY 2010 BWMCA(exis1in9 and proposed
Total BOManvilfe West Proposed Space
Plus Other Space included in urbanmetrlcs analysis:
Torgan
Courtice.Valiant
Newcastle ViUagelOther Bowmanviffe
Total Oter ProposedfEvaluated In Cfarlngto n
Plus: Portion of Other Space as Other Retail. induding Spec. Food est.
NET TOTAL OTHER PROPOSED
246,400
150,000
76,300
472,700
ITotal Proposed Evaluated. urbanMetrics (excluding AYT) in CLARINGTm
2021
ESTI~TECl'y.jARR/.:tII:i~[)Ar?D'lSPACE IN MUNICIPALITY, 2021 @325averagewith 10%transrers
~ESSNEIP~()pOSEDJEYALUATEO (excluding AYT)
APOITIO,NAlSPAGE'WARRANTE;P'IN'MUNICIPALfTY,.2021
2010
E~rn~feb'~A~NiED~D'LSPACEfN MUNR;JPALfTY, 2010
lE~SNET:f!ROF'()SEDlEVN-UATED (exclUding AYT)
ADDITIONAlSPACEW~RANTED'N MUN1CIPALfTY,2010
~25aVer.ige with 10% transfers
2007
ESTIMATEDADDl WARRANTED SPACE IN MUNICIPAlITY,2007 @325,averagewith10%transrers
LESS NET PROPOS,EDfEVAlUATED (excluding AYT)
less: ExpansiOn 10 Wal.Mert
less: loblawsExpBrision
Tot"
ADDITIONAl SPACE:WARRANTED IN MUNICIPAliTY, 2007
Source: urbanMetrics inc.
1) Municipality of C1arington estimate. lncludes space evaluated by urbanMetrics (excluding AYT) and other designated sites.
AI I A\jHMl::N I 4
AMENDMENT NO. 43
TO THE CLARINGTON OFFICIAL PLAN
May 31, 2005
PURPOSE: To implement the recommendations of the Commercial Policy
Review and the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary
Plan Review. Amendment 43 amends The Clarington Official Plan,
The Bowmanville East Main Central Area Secondary Plan, The
Courtice Sub-Central Area Secondary Plan, The Newcastle Village
Main Central Area Secondary Plan and the South-West Courtice
Secondary Plan.
BASIS:
This Amendment is based on the Clarington Commercial Policy
Review: Final Report - Recommended Policy Changes dated May
30, 2005 and the Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary
Plan Review dated May 30, 2005 prepared by Meridian Planning
Consultants Inc., the supporting analysis by market, urban design
and transportation and engineering sub-consultants and further
reviewed by municipal staff.
ACTUAL
AMENDMENT:
The Clarington Official Plan
The Clarington Official Plan is hereby amended as follows:
1. By adding a new Section 4.2.9 as follows:
"4.2.9 To minimize light pollution from existing and new
development."
2. By adding a new Section 4.3.6 as follows:
"4.3.6 The Municipality will seek to minimize light pollution by:
a) developing lighting standards for all forms of
development to ensure community safety while
minimizing negative impacts from lighting;
b) utilizing appropriate street-lighting; and
c) retrofitting existing street-lighting luminaries over
time."
3. In Section 9.3.5,
a) by deleting the number "100" in Sub-section a) and replacing
it with the number "500";
b) by deleting the words "is not located on" in Sub-section c)
and replacing them with the words "does not have direct
access to";
C) by tieieUllg lilt: VVUI\) \:4i ii-.r c;~ Gib ~,~J ;.:..f
inserting it at the end of Sub-section c);
'.,\ ~
'~'j '-:,L
1
c) by adding the following new sub-section:
"d) parking shall be located at the side or rear of the
building."
4. By deleting Table 9.2, and replacing it with a new Table 9-2 as
follows:
Table 9-2
Housing Targets by Neighbourhoods
Urban Area Housing Units
Neighbourhoods low Medium High Intensification Total
Courtice
N1 Town Centre 0 0 250 100 350
N2 West Shopping District 0 0 0 350 350
N3 Worden 1175 125 0 100 1400
N4 Highland 1225 100 0 75 1400
N5 Glenview 550 535 0 50 1135
N6 Hancock 850 100 0 25 975
N7 Avondale 825 200 0 275 1300
N8 Emily Stowe 1475 275 0 550 2300
N9 Penfound 1075 75 0 75 1225
N10 Darlington 450 25 0 383 858
N11 Bayview 1150 300 125 50 1625
N12 Farewell Heights'- - - - - -
TOTAL 8775 1735 375 2033 12918
Bowmanville
Nl East Town Centre 0 700 225 275 1200
N2 West Town Centre 0 250 1500 0 1750
N3 Memorial 975 0 250 350 1575
N4 Central 425 125 75 75 700
N5 Vincent Massey 1025 200 0 175 1400
N6 Apple Blossom 1300 225 0 125 1650
N7 Elgin 1025 200 50 150 1425
N8 Fenwick 1325 525 0 100 1950
N9 Knox 1450 300 175 125 2050
N10 Northglen 975 250 50 50 1325
N11 Brookhill 1325 350 0 75 1750
N12 Darlington Green 700 175 0 125 1000
N13 Westvafe 1025 375 275 75 1750
N14 Waverly 1075 275 50 75 1475
N15 Port Darlington 550 450 175 25 1200
TOTAL 13175 4400 2825 1800 22,200
Newcastle Village
N1 Village Centre 0 100 50 75 225
N2 Graham 1075 100 0 100 1275
N3 Foster 1450 200 0 125 1775
N4 Port o(Newcaslle 500 325 250 0 1075
N5 North Village 1050 250 0 50 1350
N6 Wilmot 960 0 0 0 960
TOTAL II 5035 975 300 350 6660
2
5. In Chapter 10, by deleting the words "Central Areas" in the title
and replacing them with the words "Town, Village and
Neighbourhood Centres".
6. In Section 10.1.1, by deleting the words "Central Areas" and
replacing them with the words "Town and Village Centres".
7. In Section 10.1.2, by deleting the words "other types of
specialized commercial uses to meet the needs of residents" and
by replacing them with the words "a full range of choice in goods
and services for local residents and businesses."
8. In Section 10.1.3, by deleting the words "and direct them to
appropriate locations" and replacing them with the words "in an
appropriate manner."
9. By adding the following new section:
"10.1.4 To protect and foster the role of downtowns."
1 O. In Section 10.2.1, by deleting the words "Main Central Areas"
and replacing them with the words "Town Centres (East and
West)".
11. In Section 10.2.2, by deleting the words "Central Area" and
replacing them with the words "Town and Village Centre".
12. In Section 10.2.3,
a) by deleting the words "Central Areas" and replacing them
with the words "Town, Village, Neighbourhood and the Port
of Newcastle Harbourfront Centres";
b) by deleting the word "and" between the words "parks" and
"walkways" and replacing with a comma; and,
c) by adding the words "and building forms and styles that
reflect the character of the community" at the end of the
sentence.
13. In Section 10.2.5, by adding the words "and auto-oriented
building forms"to the end of the sentence.
14. By adding the following new section:
"10.2.6 To provide opportunities for and to encourage future
intensification and infill with new development."
15. In Section 10.3, by deleting the words "for Central Areas"; from
the section's title.
16. By deleting Section 10.3.1 in its entirety and replacing it with the
following new section:
"10.3.1 Town and Village Centres, Neighbourhood Centres,
Highway Commercial Districts, the Courtice Viis,,!
Shopping District and the Port of Newcastle Harbourfront
3
Centre are shown on Map A, with population allocations
indicated on Map E."
17. By renumbering Section 10.3.2 as Section 10.4.5 and by making
the following changes to the renumbered Section 10.4.5:
a) by deleting the words "Central Areas" in the first sentence
and replacing them with the words "Town and Village
Centres";
b) in Sub-section c) by inserting the words "municipal
squares," before the words "pocket parkettes" and by
inserting the word "street-related buildings," after the words
"pocket parkettes";
c) in Sub-section d) by deleting the words "Central Areas" and
replacing them with the words 'Town and Village Centres";
and
d) by adding the following new sentence at the end of the
Section:
"Urban Design principles will be further elaborated
through the urban design guidelines for specific Town and
Village Centres as set out in the Official Plan.
Development shall comply with area specific urban design
guidelines."
18. By adding a new Section 10.3.2 as follows:
"10.3.2 No new Town or Village Centre, Shopping District or
Highway Commercial District or expansion to any of
these Centres or Districts shall be permitted unless
approved as part of the comprehensive review of the
Official Plan. New Neighbourhood Centres may be
designated through a neighbourhood planning process"
19. By deleting Sections 10.3.3 to Section 10.3.6 inclusive;
20. By adding a new Section 10.3.3 as follows:
"10.3.3 Applications to amend the Official Plan to expand
significantly any Town, Village or Neighbourhood
Centre, Shopping District or Highway Commercial
District or to designate any new Neighbourhood Centre
may require a retail impact study, as determined by
Council in their sole discretion, to assess the impact on
the planned function of Town and Village Centres. The
retail impact study shall be prepared by an independent
consultant retained by the Municipality at the expense
of the applicant."
21. By duJiflg a ne\i'i/ 3eG~iun 'h).3.,~ idS k;:lo\\'~.
4
"10.3.4 The ongoing health and vitality of Town and Village
Centres, in particular the historic downtowns, will be
encouraged by:
a) phasing major retail growth in accordance with
population growth in Clarington;
b) municipal investment in public infrastructure;
c) municipal programs to encourage private sector
investment in redevelopment and the restoration
and adaptive reuse of historic buildings;
d) participation in appropriate programs of senior levels
of government;
e) preparation of community improvement plans;
f) fostering and assisting merchant groups and
associations; and
g) encouraging joint marketing efforts."
22. By adding a new Section 10.3.5 as follows:
"10.3.5 Signage is recognized as an integral part of good
community design and image. It is municipal policy
that:
a) the design and scale of signage shall complement
rather than dominate the landscape:
b) it shall be incorporated as an integral part of a
building or site layout wherever possible:
c) it will not unduly detract from the overall visual
attractiveness of the built environment for both
pedestrians and motorists; and
d) it will be designed and IDcated so as not to be
hazardous for either pedestrians or motorists.
More specific guidance regarding signage shall be
provided through urban design policies and the
Municipality's Sign By-law. Special signage
requirements may be defined for the historic
downtowns and other unique areas ofthe Municipality."
23. By adding a new Section 10.3.6 as follows:
"10.3.6 As part of the Municipality's program of streetscape
improvements, developers of commercial properties will
be encouraged to assist in the creation of a high quality
public realm through contributions to street tree planting
2nd street furnJtt're in ~ddltion to l8:nrl~~8T\''''('J
improvements on private lands."
5
24. Section 10.3.7 is renumbered as Section 10.4.6 and amended
as follows:
a) by deleting the words "In the review of development
applications" and replacing with the words "In Town or
Village Centres where detailed urban design guidelines
have not been prepared".
b) by deleting the words "for Central Areas" and replacing
them with the words "of 10.4.5".
c) by adding the words and punctuation "through the review
and approval of development applications." After the words
"shall be implemented".
d) by deleting from Sub-section c) the word "and" now
between the words "commercial" and "residential" and by
adding the words "and community use" before the words
"shall be achieved".
e) in Sub-section d) by adding words "with particular regard to
screening parking areas visible to the street, providing
shade for pedestrians and mitigating heat island effects" at
the end of the clause.
f) by inserting a new Sub-section (f) and (g) as follows:
"f) lighting impacts will be minimized;
g) energy efficient design and orientation which
maximizes the use of alternative or renewable
energy such solar and wind energy and the
mitigating effects of vegetation will be encouraged
wherever possible;"
and by renumbering all subsequent Sub-sections of the
renumbered Section 10.4.6 accordingly.
g) in renumbered Sub-section (h) by adding the words
"wherever possible and in all other situations within separate
buildings of similar design to the principal building on the lot"
at the end of the clause.
h) in renumbered Sub-section (i) by deleting the word "and"
after the word "unobtrusive" and adding the words and
punctuation "anticipated noise impacts will be mitigated, the
areas will be".
25. In Section 10.4, by deleting the words "Main Central Areas" in
the title and replacing them with the words "Town and Village
Centres".
26. In Section 10.4.1,
a) by deleting the words "Main Central Areas shall be planned
and" in the first sentence and replacing them with the words
"Town and Village Centres shall be ";
6
b) by deleting the words "activities within the Municipality"; and
replacing them with the words "activity in each community
with the Town Centres".
c) by deleting the words "They shall" in the second sentence" in
and replacing them with the words "Town and Village
Centres will";
27. By deleting Section 10.4.2 in its entirety, and by replacing it with
a new Section 10.4.2 as follows:
"10.4.2 Each Town and Village Centre will have a distinct
character and function generally in accordance with the
following: .
a) Town Centres will be larger in scale, provide goods
and services for a large segment of Clarington's
population and will develop with a higher overall
density than Village Centres;
b) Bowmanville Town Centres (East and West) will be
planned and developed as a centre of regional
significance providing the highest level of retail and
service uses and shall be the primary focal point of
cultural, community, recreational and institutional
uses in Clarington;
c) Village Centres will be smaller in scale, be
developed at similar densities as the historic
downtowns and shall serve primarily local needs for
goods and services; and
d) Town and Village Centres will maintain and enhance
the historic character of each community."
28. By adding a new Section 10.4.3 as follows:
"10.4.3 The Municipality will seek to achieve the following
targets for Town and Village Centres:
Centre Gross Leasable Maximum Floor
Floor Space for Space Index
Retail and Service
Uses
Bowmanville East 70,000 1.5
Town Centre
Bowmanville West 100,000 1.5
Town Centre
Courtice 30,000 1.5
Town Centre
Newcastle 15,000 0.75
Villaoe Centre
Orono 5,000 0.4
I Village '-ell"",
7
The maximum floor space index shown in Table 10.1 is the
maximum floor space permitted on a net development parcel."
29. By deleting Section 10.4.4 in its entirety, and by replacing itwith
the following new Section 10.4.4:
"10.4.4 Town and Village Centres shall be comprehensively
developed in accordance with Secondary Plans which
shall encourage and provide for:
a) residential and/or mixed use developments in order
to achieve higher densities and reinforce the
objective of achieving a diverse mix of land uses;
b) redevelopment and intensification with a wide array
of uses within the Town or Village Centre; and
c) other uses that are complementary to the intended
commercial functions."
30. By adding a new Section 10.4.7 as follows:
"10.4.7 Drive-through facilities are not desirable in Town and
Village Centres. Drive-through facilities will be
prohibited in certain areas and appropriately regulated in
other areas to minimize impacts on roads and the
pedestrian environment, to ensure compatibility with
adjacent uses and to achieve the built-form objectives of
this Plan and the Secondary Plans. The following
policies shall apply to the development of drive-through
facilities where they are permitted:
a) any drive-through facility must be located on a lot
sufficiently sized to accommodate all activities
associated with the drive-through facility;
b) all buildings containing drive-through facilities shall
be oriented to the primary street frontage. No portion
of the stacking lane and no parking spaces or drive
aisle shall be located within the setback area;
c) drive-through facilities shall be sufficiently separated
from residential uses to avoid issues of land use
compatibility;
d) a drive-through facility will have sufficient dedicated
stacking lane to prevent vehicles from interfering with
on-site and off-site vehicular circulation; and
e) any additional policies as may be contained in
Secondary Plans."
31. By renumbering Section 10.4.3 as "Section 10.4.8" and:
a) by deleting the words "Main Central Area" in the first
sentence and replacing them with the words "Town Centre";
1-,1 by ,",p'et;rC' tbp "pcor("l "entpn....p in its entirety ~md Iw
replacing it with the following new sentence:
8
"Detailed land use policies for the Courtice Town Centre will
be provided for in a Secondary Plan."
32. In Section 10.5, by deleting the words "Sub-Central Areas" in the
title and replacing them with the words "Courtice West Shopping
District" .
33. By deleting Section 10.5.1 in its entirety, and by replacing it with
the following revised section:
"10.5.1 The Courtice West Shopping District serves the
surrounding urban areas through the provision of uses
which complement the Courtice Town Centre including
retail, service, office, residential, cultural, community and
recreational uses."
34. By deleting Sections 10.5.2 and 10.5.3.
35. By adding new Sections 10.5.2 and 10.5.3 as follows:
"10.5.2 In conjunction with the adjacent lands in the City of
Oshawa, the Courtice West Shopping District shall be
developed and function primarily as a shopping district
serving portions of the Oshawa and Courtice urban
areas.
10.5.3 Specific development policies and land uses shall be
provided for in the secondary plan for the Courtice West
Shopping District. All proposed development shall
comply with the provisions of Section 10.4.6 c) to k)."
36. In Section 10.6, by deleting the words "Local Central Areas" in
the title and replacing them with the words "Neighbourhood
Centres".
37. By deleting Section 10.6.1 in its entirety, and by replacing it with
the following new section:
"10.6.1 Neighbourhood Centres are to serve as focal points
for residential communities and provide for day tD day
retail and service needs. They shall be planned and
developed in a comprehensive manner. The
maximum amount of gross leasable f100rspace in any
one Neighbourhood Centre shall be 5,000 square
metres."
38. In Section 10.6.2,
a) by deleting from the first sentence, the words "Local Central
Areas shall develop as mixed use areas containing
commercial, residential" in the first sentence and replacing
them with the words "Neighbourhood Centres are intended
to be developed with adjacent areas as transit nodes
~ofltaining higher densitv residential uses and wherever
possible "; and
9
b) by deleting the second sentence.
39. In Section 10.6.3,
a) by deleting the first sentence and replacing it with the
following:
"An appropriate range of retail and service uses will be identified
in the Zoning By-law in accordance with the following:
a) uses will be appropriate to be located in proximity to
adjacent residential areas;
b) uses will be limited in scale;
c) drive-through restaurants will not be permitted; and
d) mixed-use development will be encouraged.", and
b) by deleting Table 10-1 in its entirety.
40. By deleting Section 10.6.4 in its entirety and by replacing it with
the following new Section 10.6.4:
"10.6.4 In the review of development applications, the following
site development and urban design criteria will be
implemented:
a) a floor space index for retail uses on any site not
exceeding 0.30;
b) a maximum combined floor space index of 0.50
where there are second storey office or residential
uses;
c) with the exception of a grocery store/supermarket, a
maximum of 400 square metres of gross leasable
floor area for any individual store;
d) street-related building forms are preferred but as a
minimum direct pedestrian access will be provided
from the street to some stores within 4 m of the
streetline;
e) compliance with Section 10.4.6 b) to i); and
f) provision of a public square in accordance with
Sections 10.6.5 and 10.6.6."
41. In Section 10.6.5,
a) by deleting the words "Local Central Areas" in the first
sentence and replacing them with the words "Neighbourhood
Centres";
b) by deleting the words "for the community" in the first
-~,.~_,- ~"r-"_'"'!
.'.....-'1.'-".'....
10
c) by deleting the words "For those Local Central Areas with a
public square requirement on Table 10-1, a publicly-
accessible square shall be constructed either as a public
parkette or as part of a commercial development." from the
second sentence and replacing them with the words "Public
squares will be designed as a high quality urban
environment with such amenities as.appropriate paving,
landscaped areas, benches, refuse containers, bicycle
stands, lighting, public art and other elements that enhance
the social and physical environment."
42. By deleting Section 10.6.6 in its entirety and replacing it with the
following:
"10.6.6 Public squares shall be constructed either as a public
parkette or as part of a commercial development with
the right of the public to access the square secured by
appropriate means. Public squares are required at the
following Neighbourhood Centres:
. Bloor/Prestonvale
. Liberty/Longworth
. Regional Road 57/Concession Road 3
. Concession/Mearns
. Port of Newcastle
Any new Neighbourhood Centres identified by
amendment to this Plan."
43. By deleting Section 10.7 in its entirety and replacing it with the
following:
"10.7 Port of Newcastle Harbourfront Centre"
10.7.1 The Port of Newcastle Harbourfront Centre is identified
on Map A4. The Harbourfront Centre shall be planned
and developed as a community focal point and part Df the
tourism node at the Port of Newcastle. The Harbourfront
Centre will be a high quality urban environment that
builds on the existing natural setting, marina and park
development and views of the waterfront.
10.7.2Within the Harbourfront Centre a variety of uses are
permitted which are compatible with the marina and
District Park including multiple residential, retail and
services uses, professional offices, a small hotel, places
of entertainment, and recreational, cultural and
community facilities. Retail uses will be appropriate for
and scaled to meet neighbourhood or tourism needs.
T"1e "del sha'l be appropriately designed and scaled for
a small town harbourfront location. The maximum
11
number of multiple residential units in the Harbourfront
Centre is 250.
10.7.3 The Harbourfront Centre shall be developed to the
highest design standard. In the review of development
applications, the following urban design and site
development criteria shall be implemented;
a) buildings should be harmonious in form and
architectural style, have a consistent setback from the
street and valley, and shall be oriented to provide
. views of the waterfront and the marina;
b) buildings will have a maximum height of five storeys
on the front and/or street facades;
c) the maximum floor space index for any site shall not
exceed 0.75;
d) a safe, well-defined pedestrian walkway system will
link to the Waterfront Trail, the marina area and the
District Park with attractive landscaping and signage
to enhance the pedestrian experience;
e) a consistent design and use of materials will be used
for all signage, benches and light fixtures throughDut;
f) convenient parking areas shall be screened by
landscaping;
g) loading spaces shall be strategically located to
minimize the visual and noise disturbances and all
refuse containers shall be fully enclosed; and
h) outdoor amenity areas associated with residential
development shall be designed with quality
landscaping, safe pedestrian walkways, appropriate
lighting and other elements to enhance the overall
character of any residential development.
10.7.4 A public square shall be designed as an integral
component of the Harbourfront Centre. It shall serve as
a neighbourhood gathering place and a centre of
attraction for tourists. The public square shall be
designed and developed in accordance with the
following:
a) it shall comply with public square provisions of
Sections 10.6.5 and 10.6.6;
b) it shall be located in association with commercial and
hotel uses;
c) it shall be physically defined by building facades; and
d) it shall provide opportunities for views, vistas and
pedestrian linkages to the surroundings area."
44. by deieiing Sedkml0.G ii. ies ei'[;I<>l)-.
12
45. By renumbering Section 10.9 as Section 10.8, by renumbering
the Sub-sections of renumbered 10.8 accordingly, and by
deleting the words "Highway Commercial Areas" from the title to
Section 10.8 in the Section and replacing them with the words
"Highway Commercial Districts".
46. By deleting the text Df the renumbered Section 10.8.1 and
replacing it with the following:
"Highway Commercial Districts are to serve the specialized
needs of residents on an occasional basis. Highway
Commercial Districts generally require large parcels of land to
accommodate certain types of large format retailers, which
require exposure to traffic and may require outdoor storage and
display. Permitted uses may include motor vehicle sales and
service establishments, home improvement centres, large format
home furnishing stores and other similar large format retailers,
garden centres and nurseries, restaurants, motels, hotels, and
service stations, but do not include motor vehicle body shops,
department stores, food stores, banks and warehouse
merchandise clubs."
47. In the renumbered Section 10.8.2,
a) by deleting the word "Areas" in the first sentence and
replacing it with the word "Districts;
b) in clause c) Bullet 1 by adding a "semi-colon" at the end;
c) in clause c) Bullet 2 by adding a "semi-colon" at the end;
d) in clause c) Bullet 3 by adding a "semi-colon" and the wDrd
"and" at the end'
,
e) in clause d) by deleting the word "and" at the end of and
replacing it with a "period", and
f) by deleting clause e).
48. In the renumbered Section 10.8.3,
a) by deleting the word "Areas" from the first sentence and
replacing it with the words and figures "Districts in SectiDn
10.8.2";
b) by deleting clauses d), f) and g) and renumbering clause e)
as clause "d)"; and
c) by adding a new clause e) as follows:
"e) compliance with the provisions of 10.4.6 c) to i)."
49. In renumbered Section 10.8.4, by deleting the word "Areas" from
the first sentence and replacing it with the word "Districts".
50. By deleting renumbered Section 10.8.5 in its entirety.
51. By renumbering Section I 0.1 0 as Section j 0.9 by JeieUn\J'; i6
second sentence and by replacing it with the following:
13
"Service stations are establishments which primarily sell
gasoline and associated automotive products. A service station
may include accessory uses such as the repair of vehicles, a
car wash, restaurants, and a small convenience store."
52. In renumbered Section 10.9.2,
a) by adding the word "that" after the word "provided";
b) by deleting Sub-section a) and replacing it with the
following;
"a) a maximum of one (1) service station may be
permitted at any intersection, with the exception that
in a Highway Commercial District or Employment
Area a maximum of two (2) service stations may be
permitted diagonally opposite each other at any
intersection;"
c) by deleting Sub-section b) and replacing it with the
following new Sub-section b) as follows;
"b) it is not adjacent to or opposite schools or public
recreation facilities;"
d) in Sub-section c) by deleting the words "locations shall"
and replacing them with the words "it does".
e) by deleting Sub-section e), and replacing it with the
following:
"e) primary access is taken from an arterial or collector
road; and"
f) by adding a new Sub-section f) as follows:
"f) it has no undue adverse effect on adjacent
residential uses."
53. By deleting the renumbered Section 1 0.9.3 and replacing it with
the following:
"10.9.3 Notwithstanding Section 1 0.9.2 a), service stations will
not be permitted at prominent intersections in Town or
Village Centres or other locations which Council deems
to have important visual significance for gateways to
communities. "
54. By renumbering Section 1 0.9.4 as 1 0.9.5 and by adding a new
Section 10.9.4 as follows:
"10.9.4 Service stations will be designed with the following
considerations:
a) high quality architectural design, landscape
treatment and fencing with particular attention to
corner treatment;
14
b) lots should be sufficiently large to accommodate
the proposed uses and provide appropriate buffers
to adjacent uses;
c) access points to each site shall be limited in
number and shall not impede traffic flows. Internal
access to adjacent commercial properties shall be
provided wherever possible;
d) convenience retail uses shall be sensitively
designed to the context, have high quality finishes
facing the street, generally have less than 250
square metres of floor area, generally be sited on
the street corner; and in urban areas provide direct
pedestrian access from the sidewalk;
e) ancillary drive-through facilities are prohibited in
Town and Village Centres and in all other areas
will be sufficiently separated from residential uses;
f) garbage will be accommodated internally or within
a separate and fully enclosed structure with
architecture that matches the principle building;
g) fencing, landscaping and architectural treatments,
and other appropriate measures will be used to
mitigate any noise impacts identified by a noise
study;
h) signage shall be minimized; and
i) lighting and glare will be minimized in accordance
with municipal policy and appropriate road
authority requirements."
55. In Section 11.5.2, by deleting the words "Large scale retail
warehouses" from the last sentence and by replacing them with
the words "Home improvement centres", and by deleting the
words "subject to the provisions of Section 10.9.5".
56. In Section 12.4.1, by adding the words "service stations" after
the words "arts and craft shops" in the third sentence, and by
adding the following new sentence at the end of the SectiDn:
"Service stations shall also be subject to the policies of
Section 10.9 of this Plan."
57. In Section 16.2.5, by adding the following after the first sentence.
"The marina area is to be fully integrated with the designated
Harbourfront Centre and shall be developed in accordance with
the following:
,.\ em integrated svstem of publicly accessible walkways
will connect the Harbourfront Centre with the marina
area, the District Park and the Waterfront Trail;
15
b) the marina development will be fully integrated with the
District Park with complementary recreation facilities
and amenity areas, joint access arrangements and
shared parking facilities;
c) the marina clubhouse will have complementary
architectural style and form, and shall incorporate
common streets cape elements and landscape themes
with the Harbourfront Centre development; and
d) off-season boat storage shall be only permitted
immediately adjacent to the marina."
58. In Section 16.10.1, by deleting the number "10.9" and replacing it
with the number and words "10.4, and the provisions of the
Bowmanville West Town Centre Secondary Plan".
59. In Sub-section 16.10.1 a), by deleting the words "notwithstanding
the provisions of Section 10.9.1,".
60. In Sub-section 16.10.1 b),
a) by deleting the word "the" before the word "development"
and replacing it with the word "any";
b) by deleting the words "of any part of Special Policy Area H"
after the word "development";
c) by deleting the words "said centre and lands" and replacing
them with the words "the facility including the lands on which
it is located";
d) by adding a period after the word "fee"; and
e) by adding the words "This requirement is" before the words
"exclusive of other" in the last sentence.
61. In Sub-section 16.10.1 c), by deleting the words "in Special
PDlicy Area H" and "to be prepared and approved by the
Municipality" .
62. In Section 17.2.1, by deleting the words "Main Central Area"
from the first, second and third sentences and by replacing them
with the words "Town Centre".
63. In Section 19.5.4,
a) by deleting the words "Main and Sub-Central Areas and the
Orono Local Central Area shall reflect" from the third
sentence and by replacing them with the words "Town and
Village Centres";
b) by deleting the words "reflect the" in the third sentence and
by replacing them with the words "be consistent with";
c) by deleting the words "East Main Central Area" in the last
sentence and by replacing them with the words "Town
Centre";
16
e) by deleting the words "Main Central Area" after the words
"Newcastle Village" in the last sentence and by replacing
them with the word "Centre"; and
f) by deleting the words "Local Central Area" in the last
sentence and replacing them with the words ''Village
Centre" .
64. By adding a new Section 19.5.5 as follows:
"19.5.5 The Municipality will undertake a streetscape
improvement program with particular attention to Town
and Village Centres, the Regional Transit Spine on
Highway 2, and gateway locations to each urban
community."
65. By adding a new Section 19.6.3 as follows:
"19.6.3 Notwithstanding the above provisions, on the future
Brookhill Boulevard, private individual accesses to
detached and semi-detached dwellings and street
townhouses will not be permitted."
66. By adding the words "including roads" to the end of Sub-section
23.4.3 a).
67. By amending Map A2 - Land Use: Courtice as shown on
Exhibit "A".
68. By amending Map A3 - Land Use: Bowmanville as shown on
Exhibits "B" and "B1".
69. By amending Map A4 - Land Use: Newcastle Village as shDwn
on Exhibit "C".
70. By amending Map A5 - Land Use: Orono as shown on Exhibit
"D".
71. By amending Map B3 - Transportation: Bowmanville as shown
on Exhibit "E".
72. By amending Map E1 - Neighbourhood Planning Units:
Courtice as shown on Exhibit "F".
73. By amending Map E2 - Neighbourhood Planning Units:
Bowmanville as shown on Exhibit "G".
74. By amending Map E3 - Neighbourhood Planning Units:
Newcastle Village as shown on Exhibit "H".
Bowmanville East Main Central Area Secondary Plan
The Bowmanville East Main Central Area Secondary Plan is hereby amended as
follows:
17
1. By renaming the Secondary Plan as the "Bowmanville East Town Centre
Secondary Plan".
2. By deleting all references to "East Main Central Area" and replacing them
with the words "East Town Centre" and by deleting all references to "West
Main Central Area" and replacing them with the words "West Town
Centre".
3. By deleting Section 4.2. and replacing it with the following:
"4.2 This Plan provides for approximately 70,000 square metres of retail
and service floorspace, generally as follows:
a) Downtown 30,000 square metres
b) East Business District 40,000 square metres"
4. By renumbering the existing Section 4.5 as Section 4.6.
5. By inserting a new Section 4.5 as follows:
"4.5 Future studies will be undertaken to determine the intensification
potential within the East Town Centre for additional residential and
commercial development, consistent with emerging Provincial
policy and the historic character of the community."
6. By adding a new Section 4.7 as follows:
"4.7 For the purpose of Section 10.93 of the Official Plan and in
consideration of land use and urban design objectives of this Plan,
the intersections of King Street with Liberty Street, Simpson
Avenue and Mearns Avenue are prominent intersections which
Council deems to have important visual significance."
7. In Section 5.2, by deleting the word "personal" before the word "service".
8. In Section 5.3, by deleting the word "personal" before the word "service"
and by adding the words "and the portion of the East Business District
west of Liberty Street" such that Section 5.3 reads as follows:
"5.3 Notwithstanding the above, no drive-through retail or service
establishments are permitted in the Street-Related Commercial
Area in the Downtown and the portion of the East Business
District west of Liberty Street."
9. By deleting the title of Section 6 and replacing it with the title "General
Commercial Area".
10.ln Section 6.2, by deleting the word "personal" before the word "service".
11. By deleting the word "and" at the end of Sub-section 7.3 c).
12. By renumbering Sub-section 7.3 d) to Sub-section 7.3 e).
13. By adding a new Sub-section 7.3 d) as follows:
"7.3 d) additions should enhance the pedestrian character of the
f'treetf'caoe' ",,.,d"
18
14. By deleting the title of Section 9 and replacing it with the title "Parks and
Squares".
15. By renumbering Section 9.3 as Section 9.4.
16. By adding a new Section 9.3 as follows:
"9.3 The Municipality will endeavour to enhance the social and
physical environment of the Downtown by creating a larger,
functional civic square in proximity to the Municipal
Administrative Centre."
17 .In Section 10.5, by adding the words "and private corporations" after the
words "senior levels of government".
18.ln Sub-section 12.3 b), by adding the words "and architectural" after the
words "historic".
19. By amending MapA- Land Use Downtown by deleting the words "East
Main Central Area" from the title block and replacing them with the words
"East Town Centre".
20. By amending Map B - Land Use East Business District as shown on
Exhibit "I"
The Courtice Sub-Central Area Secondary Plan
The Courtice Sub-Central Area Secondary Plan is hereby amended as follows:
1. By deleting the title of the Plan and replacing it with the following new title,
"Courtice West Shopping District Secondary Plan".
2. By deleting all references to the "Courtice Sub-Central Area" and replacing
them with the words "Courtice West Shopping District".
3. In Section 4.2, by deleting the words and figures "permits a maximum of
28,000 square metres" and replacing them with the words "provides for
approximately 30,000 square metres".
4. By adding a new Section 4.5 as follows:
"4.5 For the purpose of Section 10.9 3 of the Official Plan and in
consideration of land use and urban design objectives of this Plan,
the intersection of King Street with Varcoe Road/Darlington
Boulevard is a prominent intersection which Council deems to have
important visual significance."
5. In Section 5, by deleting the words "Primary Commercial Area" and replacing
them with the words "General Commercial Area".
6. In Section 5.2, by adding a fifth bullet and the words "drive-through
development in accordance with the policies contained in Section 10.4.7 of
the Official Plan".
19
7. In Section 6.2, by adding a fifth bullet and the words "drive-through
development in accordance with the policies contained in Section 10.4.7 of
the Official Plan".
8. In Section 8.1,
a) by deleting the words and figures "Section 10.3.2 of the Official Plan" and
replacing them with the words "Section 10.4.5 of the Official Plan";
b) by deleting the words and figures "Section 10.3.7 ofthe Official Plan" and
replacing them with the words "Section 10.4.6 of the Official Plan"; and
c) by deleting the words "Primary Commercial Area" and replacing them with
the words "General Commercial Area"_
9. By amending Map A as shown on Exhibit "J".
The Newcastle Main Central Area Secondary Plan
The Newcastle Main Central Area Secondary Plan is hereby amended as
follows:
1. By deleting the title of the Plan and replacing it with the title "Newcastle
Village Centre Secondary Plan".
2. By deleting all references to "Main Central Area" and replacing them with the
words "Village Centre".
3. By deleting all references to "King Street" and replacing them with the words
"King Avenue".
4. In Section 1.1, by deleting the words "in the eastern portion" and replacing
them with the words "to the east of the historic downtown".
5. In Section 4.2, by deleting the words "permits a maximum of 15,000 square
metres of retail and personal service floor space by 2016" and replacing them
with the words and figures "provides for approximately 15,000 square metres
of retail and service f1oorspace".
6. In Section 4.3, by deleting the word "Neighbourhood" after the words "Port of
Newcastle" and replacing it with the words "Harbourfront Centre".
7. By adding a new Section 4.6 as follows:
"4.6 For the purpose of Section 10.9 3 of the Official Plan and in
consideration of land use and urban design objectives of this Plan,
the intersections of King Avenue with North Street, Mill Street and
Arthur Street are prominent intersections which Council deems to
have important visual significance."
8. In Section 5.1, by deleting the number "10.3.2" and replacing it with the
number "10.4.5".
q By deleting the tille of Section 6 and replacing it with the title "General
Commercial Area".
20
10.ln Section 6.2,
a) in the first bullet, by deleting the words "retail, personal services and
offices" and replacing them with the words "retail and service uses";
b) by changing the second bullet and text to be the third bullet and text and
by adding a new second bullet as follows:
. "professional offices"; and
c) in the changed third bullet, by adding after "service stations" the following
words "subject to the provisions of Section 10.9 of the Official Plan".
11. In Section 6.3,
a) by deleting the words "Strip Commercial Area" and replacing them with
"General Commercial Area"
b) by deleting the words "conform with the site development criteria of
Section 10.8.3" and replacing them with the words "conform to the site
development criteria of Section 10.4.6".
12. In Section 7.2,
a) by deleting the second bullet "retail, service and office uses" and replacing
it with the bullet worded "small-scale retail and personal service uses";
b) by deleting the third bullet "retail, service and office uses" and replacing it
with the bullet worded "professional offices",
13. By adding a new Section 7.3 as follows:
"7.3 Notwithstanding the above, no drive-through facility shall be
permitted in the Mixed Use Area."
14. By adding a new Section 7.4 as follows:
"7.4 Redevelopment within the Mixed Use Area will generally comprise
the conversion of existing residential structures subject to the
following criteria:
a) the existing residential fa9ade of a house will be maintained with
any additions at the rear or side ofthe dwelling;
b) all effort will be made to restore and preserve the historic character
of dwellings identified as heritage buildings on Map A;
c) all development and redevelopment will maintain the established
building setback and reinforce the pedestrian character of the street
by providing streetscape enhancements and pedestrian amentties;
d) parking will be located at the side or the rear of the property behind
the front fa9ade of the building. In no case shall parking be
permitted in the front of the building;
e) consolidation of smaller land parcels will be encouraged; and
g) all development will comply with Section 10.4.6 c) to i) of the
Official Plan."
15. In Section 11.3, by deleting the words "Section 10.3.2 of the Official Plan, the
site development criteria of Section 10.3.7 of the Official Plan" and replacing
21
them with the words "Section 10.4.5 of the Official Plan, the site development
criteria of Section 10.4.6 of the Official Plan".
16. In Section 12.1, by deleting the Section and replacing it with the following:
"12.1 Council shall ensure the continued safe and efficient traffic
operations on King Avenue and subject to budgetary approval, may
consider the following measures:
a) improving road geometry, rationalizing lane arrangements,
installing raised centre medians where appropriate and other
design modifications;
b) widening sidewalks and incorporating streetscape enhancements
to improve the pedestrian environment;
c) reviewing regulations for on-street parking;
d) adding additional traffic signals or traffic control devices;
e) encouraging the relocation of undesirable private accesses; and
f) investigating the designation of King Avenue as a controlled
access road under the Municipal Act, 2001, and the closing of
private accesses."
17. By adding a new Section 12.4 as follows:
"12.4 The Municipality may require a traffic impact study for any proposal
for development or redevelopment to ensure that it does not
negatively impact operation, safety and capacity ofthe road
network."
18. By amending Map A - Land Use as shown on Exhibit "K"
The South-West Courtice Neighbourhood Secondary Plan
The South-West Courtice Neighbourhood Secondary Plan is hereby amended as
follows:
1. by amending Map A - Land Use as shown on Exhibit "L"
22
EXHIBIT "A" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
......
..."
.....
_ _ _ URIMN BOUNDNn'
From "Main Central Alea"
To "Town Centre-
~ =RESIDOOW.
D """" RESIDOOW.
ITilD =.",.1lEN5llY
[ID~
From .Sub-Cenlral Area"
To .Courtice West
Shopping District"
NBGHSOURItOOOPM<
P\&JC
SECON.... SCHOOL
..........
SECON.... SCHOOL
PU8UC
!lDIEHrAR't SCHOOL
..........
ElDENT_ SCHOOL
SECON....
- - PI.NIING IIfEA
"""''''''''''
coumc< ...,.
_DISI1lICf
I Delete -Local Central Area-I
~RItOOO
--~
D ~ NfEA
m =- NfEA
_ ~NfEA
~UI"IJIY
,----, """""""'....
L-.-J PRCJIECI10N """
_ GREEN ...""
c:=J WATERfRONT GREENWAY
_<XllIIlUNITYPM<
. DISI1lICfPM<
.
a
r!i
"
15
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. 0
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e
~
....-..--. Sf'E'QM. POI.IC'r' MfEA
.....,.... snm NfEA
t
_ 00 STATION
20Il 4llD <<10 800...
_.
MAP A2
LAND USE
COURTICE URBAN AREA
OFFICIAL PlAN
MUtlClPAUTY OF CLARlNGTON
JUN[l3,:zGClS
LAKE twTA.W
I &WI ~Ert(F DURKIM
EXHIBIT "B" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
MAP A3
LAND USE
BOWNANVILLE URBAN AREA
0FFIClAL PUN
WLIIIICIPAUTY OF a.ARlNGTON
dUNE13,2Q05
..~;
.,
,
~ t.:>,
(;1 c? \)~.~~ ^; u..:.' .
\"r~. .{;. "'-.'}
I.J \..ial'i:\I '~-.,-- _ _ "'II'
....1-.....,'..,....,. ~...'..'. :I: '.....----.-~
..""./...,....~~~-... .. -'....... ...
/~~;./-'- ---< c:=J ~ MEA ~'~~ ~____
./ <=lJGHI"_F'UlIIC
/- - - URBAN BOUNIWn' ~ IO..lSTRW.. MEA _ SECONJARY satClCl..
f'777AF\Il\JRE _"""""" _ SEP....TE
~ URBAN RESIDENTW. INDlJSTRW.. MEA ~ sa::tIICWft' sctIXL
D u.... """"""'" !ill U11U1Y 5 =- SCItOllI.
~ =~DENSIIY CJ~:a .5 ~MYSCHOOI.
r=l!!2'~ _ ~ .......TE
~ ~,..... GREEN SPACE ... ELfMENTMY SCHOOL
D WA1ERFRONT .......,. E5 ~_ SCHOOL
~ COMMUN1Y PNI( -- ~MEA
. DISl1ICJ_
. NEIGHBCIURHOOO PM!< _ SPECW. snJar MEA
. """"" NODE
~IRHOOO
.------ SPECW. POl.lCY MEA
From "Neighbourhood Commercial"
To "Neighbourhood Centre"
t)i;"~ HIGHWII.Y CClMMERCW.
_""""TE
- """"""'" ....
co COSTATlON
EXHIBIT "B1" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
-
I
.
Relocation of
"Neighbourhood Park" Symbol
im
From "Urban Residential"
and "Environmental
Protection" to "Town Centre
--l
<(
Z
o
<..?
W
CY
@
@
From "Main Central Area"
To "Urban Residential"
/
!
From "Environmental Protection"
To "Urban Re.idential"
(
--'
I
!
/
e @@
e
-'@ e ~
e
~
e
. e
@
. -'
<(
0
CY
EXHIBIT "e" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
Rename from
"Main Central Area"
to "Village Centre"
Rename from
"Local Central Area" 10
"Harbourfront Centre"
LAKE ONMRIO
,
~
A'
,r ..
a
.~
~ . ~
"""
@
~ .
I .
"'--'\
_ _ _ UREWII BOUNDARY
r--I ENVIRONt.lENTAl..
L-J PROTECTION AREA
.. GREEN SPACE
C:J WAlERFRONT GREENWAY
.. COt.4WUNIlY PARi<
~ DEFERRED BY
~ THE REGION OF DURHAhl
1'777:< FUTURE
ICLLLLl URBAN RESlDEN'nAL
c=J URBAN RESlOENT1Al...
l"tM'l WEDlUt.l 0ENSl1Y
~RESIDEN1lAL
IIlLLAGE CENTRE
.
.
a
~
.
~
MAP A4
LAND USE
NEWCASTLE VILLAGE URBAN AREA
DISTRICT PARK
HAABOURFRONT CENlRE
NEIGHBOURHOOD PARI<
PUBUC
SECONDARY SCHOOL
SEPARATE
SECONOARY SCHOOL
PUBUC
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
SEPARATE
El...EWENTARY SCHOOL
t
_._____ SPECIAL POUCY AREA
SECONDNlY
- - PLANNING AREA
.. TOURISM NOOE
OFFICIAL PLAN
MUNICIPALllY OF ClARlNGTON
JUNE 13.2005
"""
2lXl oIDIl eoo 800m
EXHIBIT "0" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
~
,
Rename from
"Local Central Area"
to "Village Centre"
o
200
400
600
BOO m
200 m
Rename from
"Neighbourhood Commercial"
to "Neighbourhood Centre"
URBAN BDUNDARY
URBAN RESIDENTIAL
VIUAGE CENTRE
.
-
D
NEIGHBOURHOOD CENTRE
HIGHWAY COMMERCIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION AREA
_ GREEN SPACE
-
.
"
COMMUNIlY PARK
DISTRICT PARK
PUBUC
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
SPECIAL STUDY AREA 3
..........
MAP AS
LAND USE
ORONO URBAN AREA
OFFICIAL PLAN
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
JUNE 13, 2005
,
EXHIBIT "E" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
s
I
I
I
t
o 200 400 600 aoo m
200 m
r-=-T~
I I
I I
,
-......-
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I AVENUE ---k
~-'-r-----------~-
..",,# .
----- I "
I
x-,,,<:l
i
DELETE COLLECTOR ROAD
EXISTING FUlURE
..
o
...
LAKE ON?;IR/O
-" i.W _; URBAN BOUNDARY
FREEWAY
TYPE A ARTERIAl..
- - - - TYPE B ARTERIAL.
MAP 83
TRANSPORTATION
BOWMANVILLE URBAN AREA
--------...- TYPE C ARTERIAL
omCIAL PLAN
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
JUNE 1.3, 2005
REFER TO SECTION 19
THIS CONSOUDAT1ON IS PROVIDED FOR CONVENIENCE ONLY
AND REPRESENTS REQUESTED MODIFICATIONS AND ;PPROVPLS
FREEWAY IN1ERCHANGE
COUECTOR ROAD
- - - - - - REGIONAL TRANSIT SPINE
. ....... . INTER-REGIONAl..
TRANSIT UNE
co GO STAllON
,--
. .
--'
GRADE SEPARAllON
\
EXHIBIT "F" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
Rename from
"Sub-Central Area"
to "Courtice West
Shopping District"
--,
I
I
1
---:::;'I
1
I~
I
I~
I~
Rename from
"Main Central Area"
to "Town Centre"
9 8 ~
'"
1 PENFOUND lu
~I (3500) ~ 1
~ Ii
"'I ~ =>
It I!' .5
"' BLOOR STREE:T (,)
Z
::J 11
ZI
~I 1
ElAYVlEW I
(4500)
1
I I
I
1
- - - URSAN BOUNDARY
NElGHBOURHOOD BOUNDARY
(1000) POPUlATION
(*) SEE SECTION 17.6
./
MAP E1
NEIGHBOURHOOD PLANNING UNITS
COURTlCE URBAN AREA
OFFICIAL PlAN
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
JUNE 13, 2005
REFER TO SECTIONS 5 ANO 9
t
200 m
o :WO 400 600 800 m
------
'~
'"
BASEUNE ROAD
HiGHWAY 401
Ii
_ . ,0:::
"'""- --
'0~
LAKE ON/ARID
EXHIBIT "G" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
REVISE "WEST TOWN
CENtRE" BOUNDARY
r=-- --
1
I
I
I
200 m
o 200 400 600 600 m
CONCESSION ROAD 3
~
Q
fil
'"
CHANGE POPULATION
FROM "5000" TO "4500"
~
I
12 I
OARUNGTON
GREEN
(2SllO) I
'"
'"
~
I
CHANGE FROM "EAST MAIN
CENTRAL AREA" TO "EAST
TOWN CENTRE"
"
CHANGE POPULATION
FROM "3350" TO "4000"
BASEUNE ROAD
CHANGE FROM "WEST MAIN
CENTRAL AREA" TO "WEST
TOWN CENTRE"
HIGHWAY
401
t
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
..I
@
[;;'
~I
ON~R~ MAPE2
NEIGHBOURHOOD PLANNING UNITS
BOWMANVILLE URBAN AREA
OFFICIAL PLAN
MUNICIPAUTY OF CLARINGTON
JUNE 13. 2005
REFER TO SECTIONS 5 AND 9
I THIS CONSOUOI\lION IS PROVIbttI FOR OON'JE:NIEl<<iE ONLY I
,AND REPRESENTS REOOESTEDill0iXf1CA1lONS AND APPROVAI.S,
_ _ - UReAN BOUNDARY
HElGH80URHOOD BOUNDARY
(1000) POPULATlON
EXHIBIT "H" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
6
W1L101OT
(1600)
---9
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NORTH VILLAGE
(3900) I
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Rename from "Main Central
Area" to "Village Centre"
~
"""---"
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LAKE ON7AR/O
NElGHBOURHOOO BOUNOAR'f
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MAP E3
NEIGHBOURHOOD PLANNING UNITS
NEWCASTLE VILLAGE URBAN AREA
OFFICIAL PLAN
MUNICIPAUTY OF CLARINGTON
JUNE 13. 2005
REFER TO SECTlONS 5 AND 9
t
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EXHIBIT" I "To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
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EXHIBIT "K" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
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,r--...
Rename from
"Primary Commercial Area" to
"General Commercial Areao
Rename from
"Courtice Sub-Central Area" to
"Courtice West Shopping District"
MAPA
LAND USE
- -- AREA BOUNDARY 000000 MIXED USE AREA
000000
- GENERAL COMMERCIAL AREA - --- INTERNAL lANEWAYS
~ OFFlCE COMMERCIAL AREA . . . . . . PEDESTRIAN WALl<:NAYS
COURTICE WEST
SHOPPING DISTRICT
SECONDARY PLAN
JUNE 13, 2005
~
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- -~~--------
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EXHIBIT "l" To Official Plan Amendment No. 43
Cl
ll:
GRANDIIIE;W
DRIVE:
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Cl
l-
SDUTHGA 7E:
DRIVE:
BASE:UNIr ROAD
- . - PLANNING AREA BOUNDARY
~ RJTURE URBAN RESlOENTlAL
C:=J LOW DENSITY RESlDENlIAL
~,.:,.:?:,,:'.:.:.:.l ~EDIU~ DENSITY RESl/lENlIAL
.. HIGH DENSITY RESlDENlIAL
[:~:@l:::j NElGH8OURHOOO PARK
k::0::-1 PARKETTE
~ EN\ARONMENTAL
~ PR01<:ClION AREA
~ STORM WAlER FAClUTY
~ ~OARY SCHO<X.
~ =TARY SCHO<X.
I'77.ilE'7.I SEPARA 1<:
~ El.EMENTARY SCHO<X.
NElGHBOURHOOO CEIlll'E
~:-,:<<-:-:<~ UlIUlIES
o HERITAGE HOUSE
ARTERIAL ROADS T'lPE A
ARTERIAL ROADS TYPE 8
_ _ - ARTERIAL ROADS TYPE C
nun... COlLECTOR ROADS
+- LOCAL ROAD ACCESS
/.....,
I \ INTEllSEClION I~PROVEMENT
\..-,,'
. -........... PEOES1RIAH AND
BICYCLE ROUTES
Rename from "South
West Courtice" to
"Bayview Neighbourhood"
MAPA
LAND USE
BAYVIEW NEIGHBOURHOOD
SECONDARY PLAN
JUNE 13. 2005