HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD-60-91 YHE GORPORAY10N OF I HE- )OWN OF iALW('WSYLE
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k4c-efirig General Purpose and Administration Committee
► ate Monday, April 8, 1991
by-L Pwll
_PD-60-91 _Pln 11. 1
ANNUAL HOUSING REPORT 1990
respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and
Administration Committee recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PD-60-91 be received for information;
2 . THAT a copy of this report be forwarded to the Region of Durham
Planning Department, the Separate and Public School Boards, and
the Ministry of Housing.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This executive summary presents the major findings of the 1990 Town of
Newcastle Annual Housing Report. The major findings include:
The Town of Newcastle has experienced a 45 .5% decline in
housing starts . In 1990, the housing starts consisted of
577 singles/links and 175 multiples.
The Town of Newcastle has a potential housing supply of
16, 363 units consisting of existing lots, approved
applications or applications under review.
In 1990, Town Council approved a total of 3,852 residential
units, of which 3, 684 were in plans of subdivision. By year
end 1990, there were 7 ,917 residential units which had
received Town approval, including 1,235 vacant lots in plans
of subdivision.
The total number of residential building permits issued in
1990 amounted to 594 . The total number issued since 1986 is
6 ,086o
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 2
The monthly average rate for absorption of new homes in 1990
was 105.
The average resale house price in the Oshawa area decreased
from a peak of $195,292 in April 1989 to $150,279 in
November 1990 .
Vacancy rates for rental housing in the Town of Newcastle
increased to 4 . 4% in October 1990, although there were no
units available in the bachelor or three-bedroom category.
Average rents in October 1990 for 1, 2 and 3 bedroom
apartment units in the Town of Newcastle were $549, $623 and
$659 respectively.
Durham Region Non-Profit, Bowmanville Co-op and
Participation House have submitted assisted housing
proposals to create 168 housing units ( 142 townhouse units,
26 apartment units) in total.
1. PURPOSE OF THE REPORT
1. 1 The purpose of the report is to provide Council with an overview
of residential development activity in the Town of Newcastle in
1990 . This report will highlight major trends in the housing
sector by examining data related to housing supply, housing
absorption, housing cost, and rental housing.
2. HOUSING SUPPLY
2 . 1 As indicated in Table 1, the Greater Toronto Area experienced a
46 .2% decline in housing starts for both single and multiple
units . For Durham Region, the percentage decline was relatively
less being 34 . 9% . In comparison to Durham, the Town of Newcastle
experienced a 45 .5% decline in housing starts . The City of
Oshawa and the Town of Pickering experienced a 45 . 1% and 40. 3%
decline respectively. The Town's of Whitby and Ajax fared
somewhat better, posting declines of 23 . 6% and 15 .0%
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 3
respectively. The housing starts for each municipality is as
follows:
Municipality Singles/Links Multiple Total
Newcastle 577 175 752
Oshawa 99 388 487
Whitby 554 396 950
Ajax 765 272 1,037
Pickering 207 181 388
Brock/Uxbridge/Scugog 167 2 169
Durham Region 2, 369 1,414 3,783
2 .2 Collectively the municipalities of Newcastle (24 . 3%) , Whitby
(23. 3%) , and Ajax (32 . 2%) account for approximately 80% of the
housing starts for singles/links in the Region of Durham. These
same municipalities accounted for about 60% of the housing starts
for multiples in Durham Region with Newcastle, Whitby and Ajax
reporting percentages of 12 . 3%, 28 . 0% and 19 .2% respectively.
2 . 3 As indicated on Table 2, the Town of Newcastle has a potential
housing supply of 16, 363 units . (This figure includes 1,235
units, which represent vacant lots within presently registered
plans of subdivision) . The potential housing supply for the Town
of Newcastle can be broken down into the following types of
housing units:
Unit Type # of Units % of Total
Single Family 6,811 41. 6
Semi-Detached 3,561 21.7
Townhouse 3,690 22 . 6
Apartment 2,301 14 . 1
Total: 16,363 100. 0
2 .4 In 1990, the Town Council approved a total of 3,852 residential
units, of which 3,684 were in plans of subdivision. These units
could accommodate approximately 11,000 new residents . The
calculations do not, however, include those urban and rural lots
created through severance applications .
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 4
2 .5 By year end 1990, there were 7 ,917 residential units which had
received Town approval, including 1,235 vacant lots in plans of
subdivision (see Figure 1) . On the basis of average annual
growth over the last five years, this amounts to a 6.5 supply of
residential units.
FIGURE 1
APPROVED DEVELOPMENT APPLICATIONS
By Approval Status
Draft Approved Subdivisions (3735)
Vacant Lots in Subdivisions (1235)
Town Approved Rezoning (728)
Town Approved Subdivisions (2219)
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 5
2 .6 Table 3 presents the number and location of residential building
permits issued since January of 1986. The total number of
residential building permits issued during the period 1986 to
November 1990 inclusive, is 6 ,086 . During this period,
Bowmanville gained an average of 243 new housing units per year,
while Courtice and Newcastle Village gained 577 units and 148
units respectively. The number of residential building permits
issued for the entire Town averaged 1,217 housing units per year
since 1986 .
TABLE 3
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 TOTAL
URBAN AREAS
Bowmanville 125 365 347 181 199 1,217
Courtice 579 670 633 697 305 2,884
Newcastle Village 105 26 317 262 28 738
Subtotal . . 809 1,061 1,297 1, 140 532 4,839
RURAL AREAS
Ridge Pine Park 173 137 64 42 6 422
Hamlets 52 48 54 51 11 216
Other 115 156 167 126 45 609
Subtotal. . 340 341 285 219 62 1,247
TOTAL. . 1,151 1,402 11582 1,359 594 6,086
SOURCE: TOWN OF NEWCASTLE PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
r li
J
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 6
3. HOUSING ABSORPTION
3. 1 Figure 2 presents the Town of Newcastle's monthly absorption
rates from July 1988 to December 1990 (inclusive) for both
ownership and rental housing units. The 12 month average rate
for absorption rate for new housing in 1990 was 105 . Absorption
rates were particularly high for the fall months of 1988, the
latter half of 1989 and the beginning of 1990 . Absorption rates
fell for the remaining period in each year. The high and low
absorption rates usually reflect the construction season. Higher
rates are observed at the end of the construction season
(November to January) but this did not materialize in 1990.
FIGURE 2
MONTHLY ABSORPTION ION RAT]ES
250
Ownership
200
o Rentd
150
ii
100
50
0
J/88� S 0 N DJ/89F MA M J J A S O N p/9 F M A M J J A S O N O
MONTHS (,JAY 1988 — DECEMBER 1990)
SOURCE: CMHC
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 7
3 .2 The low number of rental units being produced is reflected in the
absorption rates illustrated in Figure 2 . The majority of rental
units were absorbed in May and June of 1988 . The few units
occupied in 1990 occurred in June and July.
4. HOUSING COST
4 . 1 Table 5 shows Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity for
selected months (the first month of every quarter) from January
1987 to November 1990 for Oshawa and District. Generally, the
sales/listings indicate a levelling off of resales; a general
increase in listings with a small levelling off in 1990; and a
sales to listings ratio that generally remained high from January
1987 to January 1989 . Between January 1989 and April 1989 this
ratio shrank dramatically, as the resale market was affected by
general economic conditions.
4 .2 The average house price in Oshawa and district increased fairly
steadily until April 1989 when it peaked at $195,292 . By July
1989 the price had dropped considerably to $176,829 undoubtedly
echoing the dramatic fall in the sales to listings ratio in the
previous quarter. From July 1989 to November 1990, the average
selling price decreased fairly consistently to $150,279 . This
likely reflects the increased sales of lower priced homes and
cannot be taken as a measure of declining house prices.
4 . 3 Interest rates play a major role in determining housing
affordability. For example, a Newcastle homeowner purchasing an
average resale home of $170,316 in mid 1990, would have been
faced with a mortgage rate of 14 .25% . With a 25% down payment,
the homeowner would have been required to make monthly mortgage
payments of $1,750 and have an income of $70,000 to cover these j
payments . In effect, the average home was not affordable to the
lower 60th percentile of the population.
At a lower mortgage rate of 9 .25%, this same homeowner would have
been required to make monthly mortgage payments of $1,260 and
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 8
have an income of $51,000 to cover the costs . Interest rates can
play a major role in housing affordability and is beyond the
control of municipal authority.
5. RENTAL HOUSING
5 . 1 Vacancy Rate
The average vacancy rate for the Town of Newcastle has increased
from 3 . 1% in April 1990 to 4 .4% in October 1990 (see Figure 3) .
Although the October vacancy rate is above the Province's minimum
level of 3 . 0%, it should be noted that this figure does not
reflect a large number of vacant units . For example, in October
1990, the Town of Newcastle had only thirteen 1-bedroom and seven
2-bedroom apartment units available. There were no bachelor or
no 3-bedroom apartment units available. It is also noted that
the Oshawa Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) , which includes Whitby
and Newcastle still has a vacancy rate less than 2 percent.
A -A-NY RATE
PRIVATE APARTMENTS, 3 UNITS & OVER
NEWCASTLE
4 ------------------•-----------•-------.....-----.....------ -----•--.----•- ----------------
OSHAWA CMA
------------------------ •- -------------.--•-
2 --------------------------------------------. --------*---------.---------
CL
q ••.................................... ---------*......................
Apr21VB8 Ccf/m ApriV89 OC 89 WIV90 Oct/90
MCNTH & YEAR
+ r
- J �. •1 1
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 9
5 .2 The availability of rental housing will probably not improve
dramatically since much of the development coming on stream in
the Town of Newcastle is geared to the ownership market. Only a
limited number of building permits have been issued for higher
density dwelling types . This is reflected by the fact that only
24 rental units were produced in 1989 . No building permits had
been issued for rental units by October 1990 .
5 . 3 Market Rent
Average rents in October 1990 for 1, 2 and 3-bedroom apartment
units were $549, $623 and $659 respectively. The corresponding
household income required based on the expenditure of 30% of
income on housing costs would be $21,960, $24,920 and $26,320 .
5 .4 Assisted Housing
Various Federal and Provincial government programs are in place
to assist the creation of rental housing. These are:
Municipal Non-Profit
Private Non-Profit
Co-operative Housing
Each of these programs have market rent units and rent-geared-
to-income units to create housing for a mix of income levels, In
addition, housing for the physically handicapped is incorporated
into most developments . All three types of assisted housing are
currently being pursued by various development interests .
5 .5 The following is a list of assisted housing proposals submitted
to the Town:
Units
Proposal Th Apt Status
Durham Region 60 Site Plan near completion
Non-Profit
(Mearns and Conc . site)
Bowmanville 42 26 Appealed to the Ontario
Co-op Municipal Board & Approved
Participation 40 Appealed to the Ontario
House Municipal Board
J `} ? r
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 10
Project Units Status
Durham Region 66 Site Plan under circulation
Non-Profit Housing
(Eiram site)
These proposals include a total of 11 barrier-free units for the
physically handicapped. In addition to these proposals, staff
are aware of several further assisted housing/non-profit housing
projects under consideration.
6. CONCLUSION
6 . 1 Market prices in the Greater Toronto Area have risen dramatically
over the past ten years making homeownership an impossible dream
for many households . The Town of Newcastle is an attractive
market for GTA residents seeking affordable housing. Housing
prices are considerably lower in the Town of Newcastle than the
remaining GTA. The attractiveness of the Newcastle market is
reflected by the fact that the Town has grown at a rate of 2,700
persons annually since 1986 .
6 .2 As with all municipalities in Durham, interest rates, the G.S.T.
and the recession have had a major impact on the housing sector.
Housing starts, homes sales and house prices have all decreased.
In spite of this, there is reason for optimism. Resale and new
home sales are starting to increase with lowering interest rates .
It is anticipated that housing starts will pick up soon.
6 . 3 At the present time, the Town has an ample supply of approved
housing units which could be brought on stream as soon as market
conditions permit. Staff are concerned that the approval of too
much housing "locks" the Town into a development pattern for many
years to come and does not enable the municipality to incorporate
the recommendations and policies currently being considered (e.g.
Recreation/Leisure Services Master Plan, new Official Plan) .
Even with the rapid growth rates over the past five years, the
ti�
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 11
7917 residential units currently approved amounts to a 6 .5 year
supply of housing.
6 .4 The total of 16,363 residential units were approved or under
consideration at year end 1990. If approved and built, this
would accommodate approximately 45,000 persons effectively
doubling the population. The Town will remain an attractive
housing market and all efforts must be placed to effectively
manage this growth.
6 .5 Assisted housing projects are beginning to come on stream in
Bowmanville. Over the next few years, additional projects in
Courtice and Bowmanville will contribute to the supply of housing
for all income groups in the Town. This will assist the Town in
providing the diversity of housing types essential both for
meeting the needs of the Town's residents and the needs of
prospective industry.
Respectfully submitted, Recommended for presentation
to the Committee
c
Franklin Wu, M.C. I .P. Lawrence . Kotseff
Director of Planning Chief A i istrative
and Development Officer
BR*TH*DC*FW*df
*Attach
28 March 1991
09 yo
REPORT NO. : PD-60-91 PAGE 12
Interested parties to be notified of Council and Committee's decision:
Darlene Mahyr-Richardson Ken Kary
Ministry of Housing Supervisor of Planning & Assessment
Central Region Housing Peterborough, Victoria,
Programs Office Northumberland and Newcastle,
Madison Centre Separate School Board,
Willowdale, Ontario 459 Reid Street
M2N 6K1 Peterborough, Ontario. K9H 4G7
Paul Brace, Manager
Transportation Planning
Northumberland and Newcastle
Board of Education
834 D'Arcy Street North
Box 470
Cobourg, Ontario
K9A 4L2
TABLE 1
1989 AND 1990 (JANUARY TO DECEMBER) HOUSING STARTS FOR
SINGLE AND MULTIPLE UNITS IN SELECTED PARTS OF THE GREATER TORONTO AREA
Area Single Units Multiple Units Total
1989 1990 % 1989 1990 % 1989 1990 %
Change Change Change
Greater
Toronto 19,538 8,518 -56.4% 19,928 12,713 -36.2% 39,446 21,231 -46.2%
Area
Metro-
Toronto 2,099 1,057 -49.6 9,259 5,865 -36.7 11,358 6,922 -39.1
York Region 6,316 2,583 -59.1 2,862 2,202 -23.1 9,178 4,785 -47.9
Peel Region 4,490 1,966 -56.2 5,266 2,112 -59.9 9,756 4,078 -58.2
Halton
Region 2,190 543 -75.2 1,177 1,120 - 4.8 3,367 1,663 -50.6
Durham
Region 4,443 2,369 -46.7 1,364 1,414 + 3.7 5,807 3,783 -34.9
Newcastle 1,285 577 -55.1 94 175 +86.2 1,379 752 -45.5
Oshawa 539 99 -81.6 348 388 +11.5 887 487 -45.1
Whitby 877 554 -36.8 366 396 + 8.2 1,243 950 -23.6
Ajax 840 765 - 8.9 380 272 -28.4 1,220 1,037 -15.0
Pickering 529 207 -60.9 121 181 +49.6 650 388 -40.3
SOURCE: CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION (CMHC)
LOCAL HOUSING MARKET REPORT TORONTO BRANCH, DECEMBER 1990
* Singles - includes single family detached units and link dwellings
joined below grade
* Multiples - includes all other dwellings
TABLE 2
TOWN OF NEWCASTLE HOUSING SUPPLY
YEAR END 1990
BOWMANVILLE URBAN AREA TYPE OF DWELLING
DEVELOPMENT STAGE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL
VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 155 317 144 0 616
REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 1,724 820 736 148 3,428
TOWN APPROVED UNITS 525 396 410 282 1,613
REZONING/SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 204 191 395
APPROVED UNITS SUBTOTAL 2,404 1,533 1,494 621 6,052
SUBDIVISION UNITS IN THE PROCESS 697 693 839 544 2,773
REZONING/SITE PLAN UNITS IN THE PROCESS 3 16 120 147 286
UNITS IN PROCESS SUBTOTAL 700 709 959 691 3,059
TOTAL 3,104 2,242 2,03 1,312 g, l
COURTICE URBAN AREA TYPE OF DWELLING
DEVELOPMENT STAGE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL
VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 349 148 1 0 498
REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 76 116 22 0 214
TOWN APPROVED UNITS 92 149 0 0 241
REZONING/SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 0 333 333
APPROVED UNITS SUBTOTAL 517 413 23 333 1,286
SUBDIVISION UNITS IN THE PROCESS 1,182 767 503 211 2,663
REZONING/SITE PLAN UNITS IN THE PROCESS 0 0 152 225 377
UNITS IN PROCESS SUBTOTAL 1,182 767 655 436 3,040
TOTAL 11699 11180 678 769 40326
NEWCASTLE VILLAGE URBAN AREA TYPE OF DWELLING
DEVELOPMENT STAGE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL
VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 63 1 0 0 64
REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 42 0 0 0 42
TOWN APPROVED UNITS 365 0 0 0 365
REZONING/SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 0 0 0
APPROVED UNITS SUBTOTAL 470 1 0 0 471
SUBDIVISION UNITS IN THE PROCESS 997 138 559 179 1,857
REZONING/SITE PLAN UNITS IN THE PROCESS 0 0 0 41 41
UNITS IN PROCESS SUBTOTAL 997 138 559 220 1,914
TOTAL 1,467 139 095 220 2 x M
';, ` 33
TABLE 2
TOWN OF NEWCASTLE HOUSING SUPPLY
YEAR END 1990
HAMLETS AND RURAL AREA TYPE OF DWELLING
DEVELOPMENT STATE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL
VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 57 0 0 0 57
REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 51 0 0 0 51
TOWN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 0 0 0
REZONING/SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 0 0 0
APPROVED UNITS SUBTOTAL 108 0 0 0 108
SUBDIVISION UNITS IN THE PROCESS 433 0 0 0 433
REZONING/SITE PLAN UNITS IN THE PROCESS 0 0 0 0 0
UNITS IN PROCESS SUBTOTAL 433 0 0 0 433
TOTAL 541 b 0 -0 541
TOWN OF NEWCASTLE TYPE OF DWELLING
DEVELOPMENT STAGE S.F.D. SEMI T.H. APT. TOTAL
VACANT LOT IN REGISTERED PLANS 624 466 145 0 1,235
REGIONAL DRAFT APPROVED UNITS 1,893 936 758 148 3,735
TOWN APPROVED UNITS 982 545 410 282 2,219
REZONING/SITE PLAN APPROVED UNITS 0 0 204 524 728
APPROVED UNITS SUBTOTAL 3,499 1,947 1,517 954 7,917
SUBDIVISION UNITS IN THE PROCESS 3,309 1,598 1,901 934 7,742
REZONING/SITE PLAN UNITS IN THE PROCESS 3 16 272 413 704
UNITS IN PROCESS SUBTOTAL 3,312 1,614 2,173 1,347 8,446
TOTAL , 1 -3,s6l 3,690 2,301 lr>036.E
SOURCE: TOWN OF NEWCASTLE PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT