HomeMy WebLinkAboutPSD-043-13 Clarftwn REPORT
PLANNING SERVICES DEPARTMENT
Meeting: GENERAL PURPOSE AND ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE
Date: June 24,2013 Resolution#: -119°.37q-1 By-law#:
Report#: PSD-043-13 File#: PLN 38.7.3
Subject: OFFICIAL PLAN REVIEW
GROWTH MANAGEMENT AND DRAFT LAND BUDGET
RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee
recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PSD-043-13 be received; and
2. THAT all interested parties listed in Report PSD-043-13 be notified of Council's decision
and advised that Report PSD-043-13 is available online at www.clarington.net/ourplan.
Submitted by: Reviewed by:OAAmW_Arp �
D i .7Crome, MCIP., RPP Franklin Wu,
Director of Planning Services Chief Administrative Officer
NG/COS/sn/df
18 June 2013
CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L1C 3A6 T 905-623-3379
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 2
Executive Summary
Based on the requirements of the Growth Plan and the Regional Official Plan:
• Clarington is required to plan for a 72% increase in urban population (additional 52,000
people), which is approximately 22,000 new residential units.
• Clarington is required to plan for approximately 6,200 intensification units within the 2006
Built Boundary as defined by the Province between 2015 and 2031
• Even though the Municipality is required to Plan on this basis, the growth figures would
appear to be optimistic based on previous experience
• Based on Hemson's population and housing for Clarington and the analysis in this report,
future growth will be distributed as follows:
0 Courtice 22%
0 Bowmanville 53%
0 Newcastle 21%
0 Orono/Rural 4%
• Average annual population growth rates (rounded) through the five year intervals are as
follows:
0 2006-2011 1400
0 2011-2016 1900
0 2016-2021 2500
0 2021-2026 2800
0 2026 -2031 3300
Designated Greenfield Areas
• Designated Greenfield Areas are those lands designated for urban growth but not
occupied as of June 2006. These include:
0 Lands in draft approved plans of subdivision
0 Lands in plans of subdivision under construction but not occupied as of June
2006
0 Lands where homes have been constructed since 2006
0 Land with a development proposal under consideration
0 Vacant lands currently farmed but inside the urban boundary
• There are 13,500 new residential units in Greenfield Areas required to conform. These
are to be distributed as follows:
0 Courtice - 2,400
0 Bowmanville - 8,000
0 Newcastle - 3,100
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 3
• 47% of the required units to 2031 are already in the development pipeline (vacant lots,
draft approved or proposed units total 9,306 for the Urban Areas). This is equal to
approximately 10 years of supply.
• Average annual growth rates (rounded) for new housing through the five year intervals
are as follows:
0 2006-2011 600
0 2011-2016 750
0 2016-2021 1000
0 2021-2026 1100
0 2026-2031 1200
Intensification
• Intensification units are any units constructed within the Built Boundary
• The Provincial methodology for the Built Boundary has made Clarington's job easier as
larger tracts of primarily vacant land were included in the Built Boundary, including lands
on the west side of Lambs Road (Far Sight Investments and the Training School/Camp
30 lands), the Bowmanville waterfront, Courtice Town Centre)
• Intensification Areas are to be identified to accommodate the majority of the
intensification and include Town Centres, Regional Corridors, Waterfront Places and
Transit Stations
• Intensification units are proposed to be distributed between Courtice, Bowmanville and
Newcastle on the same ratio as their share of population at 2031 but adjusted to account
for the lack of intensification sites in Newcastle
• Intensification units planned for each community are:
0 Courtice - 2100
0 Bowmanville - 3600
0 Newcastle - 500
Land Supply
• The slower than projected growth since 1996 (30,000 fewer people), the higher densities
that are now being implemented in Newcastle than planned for in the 1996 Official Plan
and the requirements of the Growth Plan (32% of the future units between 2015 and 2031
being within the Built Boundary) results in minimal additional land supply required prior to
2031.
• Urban Area unit growth from 2013-2031 was distributed on the basis of the Region's total
household growth as follows:
Urban Area Courtice Bowmanville Newcastle Total
Built-up Area Units 2,055 3,602 524 6,181
Designated 2,643 7,763 3,056 13,462
Greenfield Units
Total 4,698 11,365 3,580 19,643
REPORT NO.: PS®-043-13 PAGE 4
Summary
The land budget process is only a mathematical basis for conformity to the Growth Plan.
The important issue for Clarington is not about simply meeting these targets, but should
focus on creating high quality urban design and community character.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 5
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 The purpose of this report is to present a draft residential land budget analysis for
Clarington's Urban Areas (Courtice, Bowmanville and Newcastle). The analysis in this
report will form the basis for Clarington's Official Plan Amendment (OPA). This report
examines the land capacity and demand in Clarington and evaluates if Clarington is
able to meet the Provincial targets and Regional requirements.
The OPA will contain phasing policies as part of the Municipality's Growth Management
Strategy and must conform with the goals and objectives of the Province's Growth Plan
for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006) and the Region's Official Plan.
2. BACKGROUND
2.1 Shaping the Future of Growth
Municipalities across the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) have seen significant
planning challenges arise from the conventional suburban form of development, often
referred to as "urban sprawl". This traditional pattern of development has created many
environmental, social, and economic problems and will continue to do so if traditional
methods and attitudes do not shift towards a more compact and pedestrian oriented
design. Some of the issues created by traditional suburban developments are listed
below.
• There has been an increase in the
number of automobiles travelling
over longer distances which has z
resulted in clogged transportation "
corridors. This delays the
movement of goods and services �} -
which costs Ontario upwards of$5 1 _
billion in lost GDP each year
(source: Ministry of Infrastructure); ve
Traffic Gridlock on Highway 401
Source:Copyright Queen's Printer for Ontario,photo source:Ontario
Growth Secretariat, Ministry of Infrastructure
• Traditional suburban development patterns require more infrastructure (road and
water/waste water lines), which requires not only more upfront capital costs, but
also more operational, maintenance and eventual replacement costs. According to
a recent study, the upfront cost for infrastructure is about one third less for compact
or smart growth developments. Additionally, infill developments often.use existing
infrastructure, lowering upfront costs even more (subject to the capacity available);
• Urban sprawl contributes to the degradation of the natural environment, air quality
and water resources, as well as consumption of agricultural lands and other natural
resources, critical to the future economy and sustainability of our communities;
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 6
• Traditional suburban development
patterns can cost, on average, about
10% more for the ongoing delivery of
public services such as police,
ambulance, and fire service. This is
\' because the configuration of a
community greatly affects the delivery of
service. Also, the success of public
libraries or community centres depends
largely on how connected they are to the
_ - d residents in the area. Better
-- a — neighbourhood connections lead to
higher usage of community facilities;
Public square next to a downtown municipal building
Source:Copyright Queen's Printer for Ontario,photo source:Ontario
Growth Secretariat, Ministry of Infrastructure
• Attractive and efficient public transit is more costly and difficult to introduce into
sprawling communities leading to increased operational and user costs and reduced
service levels;
• Traditional forms of commercial and residential development generate less tax
revenue than more compact forms of development, such as mixed use
developments. This is because traditional suburban form consumes large amounts
of land and quickly exhausts the municipal's constrained land supply;
y
Left: Commercial sprawl along an arterial road (Wellington St., Aurora)
Right: pedestrian-oriented retail, live-work, and townhouse units (Lakeshore Rd., Port Credit
Village, Mississauga)
Source:Copyright Queen's Printer for Ontario,photo source:Ontario Growth Secretariat, Ministry of Infrastructure
• Suburban developments can appear homogenous and uninspiring. By incorporating
more diversity and interest into streetscape designs this can make it more attractive
to both residents and other businesses;
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 7
LL Y�
i
11J
1 11
'JJA
Design improvements to a hypothetical arterial road to make it more pedestrian, transit, and
9 p Yp p
bicycle friendly
Source:Copyright Queen's Printer for Ontario,photo source:Ontario Growth Secretariat,Ministry of Infrastructure
• Studies show that there is a statistical relationship between urban sprawl
developments and human health and obesity. Urban design elements can be
applied to increase physical activity for residents and create a more inviting and less
institutionalized community (public parks instead of commercial gyms).
Transportation systems that give priority to walking, cycling, and transit use and
combinations of these modes also encourage physical activity and can improve a
person's overall health.
There is a strong need to improve our strategy for land use and development patterns in
order to provide high quality infrastructure, public services and improve the
environment. The Province of Ontario produced the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden
Horseshoe in order to address some of the issues related to these historical
development patterns.
2.2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006)
The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (the Growth Plan) was passed
under the Places to Grow Act, 2005 and came into effect on June 16th, 2006. It is a 25-
year plan that sets a new direction as to how municipalities will develop in the future.
The Growth Plan needs to be read in conjunction with the Provincial Policy Statement
(2005) and the Provincial Greenbelt Plan. In the event of conflict between the Provincial
documents, the Growth Plan prevails, except where the policies of the other documents
speak to the protection of the natural environment and human health. The policies that
provide more protection to the natural environment and human health will prevail.
2.2.1 Goals and Key Concepts
The Growth Plan aims to curb urban sprawl, revitalize downtowns, create complete
communities, protect natural resources and increase housing and transportation
choices by providing clear and specific policy direction.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 3
The Growth Plan encourages intensification throughout the settlement areas in
municipalities. Intensification refers to development or redevelopment of lands at a
higher density than what currently exists, including infill development, brownfield
development, and expansion or conversion of existing buildings. The Growth Plan
directs upper-tier municipalities (such as Durham Region) to designate specific areas as
the focus for intensification including Town Centres, Major Transit Stations, and
Intensification Corridors. The Intensification Areas are to be the focus for higher density
housing and employment.
Within the Growth Plan, there are several primary themes which address the challenges
that are facing the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). These include:
• Encourage the development of complete communities with a diverse mix of land
uses, a range and mix of employment and housing types, high quality public open
space and easy access to local stores and services in a development pattern that is
compact in form;
• Optimize existing and/or planned infrastructure (including roads, public
transportation, water/waste water, community facilities, etc.) in a cost efficient
manner. This can be done by directing growth to the Built-Up Areas where
infrastructure may already be in place;
• Revitalize downtowns by encouraging infill development;
• Protect natural features and preserve agricultural lands;
• Protect employment areas and plan for a balance of jobs and housing to reduce the
need for long-distance commuting;
• Promote transit-supportive urban environments that reduce the dependence on the
automobile.
2.2.2 Growth Plan
The Built-Up Area is defined by the Growth Plan as the area inside the Built Boundary.
The Built Boundary is the limit of the developed urban area as defined by the Province
and reflects the built-up portion of an urban area as of June 2006.
Designated Greenfield Areas are lands situated between the Urban Area Boundary and
the Built Boundary. These lands have been designated for development but have not
yet been built upon. They are mostly the undeveloped areas within the Urban Boundary.
In Clarington, this area is predominately designated `Future Urban Residential' in the
Official Plan.
To assist with the understanding of the terminology introduced by the Growth Plan, a
glossary of terms has been provided in Attachment 1.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 9
Designated Greenfield Area
Built-Up Area-
Built-Up w
op
Urban Boundary Mil:
Visualization of Built Boundary
The following diagram illustrates the Region of Durham's Built-Up and Designated
Greenfield Areas as conceptualized in the Growth Plan.
Urban Growth Centre 407 Expansion
Greenbelt
Area
Agricultural and (Ontario R""iaUOn59/
Rural Areas
• �iC:nVit�ra0
a-6d Rural Area
Greenbelt Area Designated
Urban Growth Greenfield Area
Centre
Designated /
Built-Up Area Greenfield Area Built-up Area
Settlement
Areas
Brownfield/
Greyfield
--Intensification
Corridor -
REPORT NO.: PD-043-13 PAGE 10
2.2.3 Population and Employment Forecasts
The Growth Plan has assigned growth forecasts for population and employment for
each Regional Government and the City of Toronto in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
area. Based on these forecasts, the Region of Durham is expected to grow to a total
amount of 960,000 people and 350,000 jobs by 2031. Through the Growing Durham
Study, the Region determined which communities in the Region can accommodate this
forecasted growth. The Region has used these forecasts for long range planning and
managing future growth. Growth in the Region cannot exceed these allocated growth
forecasts.
2.2.4 Accommodating Growth
In addition to setting out the forecasts, the Growth Plan also provides direction as to
how growth should be accommodated. Generally the Growth Plan seeks to shift
traditional patterns of suburban development to more compact and denser urban forms
all within existing Urban Boundaries.
Three Growth Plan policies in particular, provide the direction in which growth must
occur:
• At least 40% of annual residential development must be located within the Built-Up
Areas of each upper-tier municipality by 2015 and each year thereafter.
• Designated Greenfield Areas must be developed at an average gross density of 50
people and jobs combined per hectare, measured across the geography of the
upper-tier municipality. The area to which this density applies excludes lands
constrained by environmental features.
• Ensure future jobs by protecting employment lands from conversion to non-
employment uses, such as residential.
Rural Settlement areas are not considered to have any Greenfield Areas since they
have not been assigned a Built Boundary by the Province. These areas have limited
capacity for new development because they are not fully serviced. Although the
Province has assigned a Built Boundary to Orono, given the servicing constraints of the
area, the implementation of the Growth Plan Policies into Clarington's Official Plan will
focus on the other three urban areas of Clarington (Courtice, Bowmanville and
Newcastle).
2.2.5 Employment Areas
Protection of employment lands while accommodating population growth is also a main
priority in the Growth Plan. Employment policies in the Growth Plan ensure that there is
an adequate supply of land available to meet the employment forecasts assigned in the
Growth Plan. The employment forecasts are a combination of projected jobs to be
created in employment lands and jobs driven by population growth (such as retail and
schools). Municipalities must also ensure that the necessary infrastructure (such as
water, waste water, and transit) is provided to support the future employment needs.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043®13 PAGE 11
Under the Growth Plan, major retail commercial uses are generally not permitted in
designated employment areas. This type of employment should be located closer to
residential areas to meet the resident's daily needs without having to travel long
distances.
2.3 Durham Region Official Plan
In keeping with the requirements of the Places to Grow Act, 2005, the Region of
Durham amended their Official Plan to reflect the policies of the Growth Plan. The
recent amendments represent the Region's interpretation of conformity with the Growth
Plan as approved by the Ontario Municipal Board. As part of the update to Clarington's
Official Plan, it is a requirement that the policies of the Clarington Official Plan are in
conformity with the Growth Plan as well as the Durham Region Official Plan.
2.3.1 Regional Official Plan Amendment (ROPA) Process and Outcome
In 2007 the Region of Durham undertook the "Growing Durham Study" to develop an
approach to implement the Growth Plan. The process involved public, municipal, and
agency consultation that resulted in amendment number 128 to the Regional Official
Plan, also referred to as ROPA 128. Regional Council adopted the amendment on June
3rd, 2009.
The amendment was forwarded to the Province for final approval. A draft decision was
issued by the Province on March 12, 2010, which included 113 modifications to the
policies and schedules. On October 27, 2010 the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and
Housing issued their final decision, however, the Region did not agree with this decision
and appealed it to the Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) in November of that year.
Moreover, there were 32 individual appeals made to the OMB regarding the
amendment. The Municipality of Clarington was one of the parties that appealed the
Ministry's final decision.
On January 9th, 2013, the OMB issued an order in accordance with a settlement
reached between the Region, the Province of Ontario and other key stakeholders. The
approval represents a compromise of the various major appeals. The Regional Official
Plan Amendment now has full approval and is in full force and effect.
2.3.2 Final Decision on Clarington Appeals
The final decision regarding Clarington's appeals are as follows:
• Approval of the "Living Area" expansion to the Courtice Urban Area;
• Denial of the expansion to the Urban Area for the Courtice Employment lands;
• Deferral of the expansion to the Orono Employment lands, until such time as it is
considered further in accordance with Policy 3.4.4 of the Greenbelt Plan;
• Refusal of the Newcastle Urban Area expansion. Special Study Area 2 will remain
as designated on June 2, 2009;
• Approval of the Urban Area expansion for "Living Area" between Bowmanville and
Newcastle, south of Highway 401 (Wilmot Creek Phase 8).
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 12
The map below shows the locations of the above decisions.
AGREEMENT ON MINISTER'S DECISION ROPA 128— OCTOBER 2012 --
Jrtaan area Boundary Expansions Refused f
'
—" rr 1 Special Study Area 2 Refused I
...,,,�. Nor:-Detis:ons
Approval Refuse %
I Remains
2.3.3 Regional Official Plan (ROP) Forecasts
The Regional Official Plan provides a policy framework, which allocates population and
employment forecasts and sets specific density standards for development. The total
growth for the Region as allocated by the Provincial Growth Plan is distributed among
all lower-tier municipalities. As shown in Table 1 the Region has allocated a total growth
of 21 ,895 households, 52,360 people, and 15,845 jobs for Clarington between 2011 and
2031.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 13
Table 1 — Population, Households and Employment Allocated to Clarington to 2031
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Growth % Change
2011-2031 from
2011- 2031
Urban 72,705 81,665 92,635 111,915 124,685 51,980 72%
Population
Rural 15,275 15,380 15,465 15,565 15,655 380 2%
Population
Total 87,980 97,045 108,100 127,480 140,340 52,360 60%
Population
Households 30,225 34,025 39,170 46,585 52,120 21,895 72%
Employment 22,575 26,895 32,150 36,070 38,420 15,845 70%
Of the total household growth for Clarington, 6,181 units are to be built within the Built-
Up Area for the time period between 2015 and 2031.
2.3.4 Key Concepts
The Regional Official Plan has been strengthened in order to implement the Growth
Plan. Some of the concepts concentrated on policies to:
• Create communities that are complete, healthy and sustainable;
• Support active transportation;
• Support food security for all residents of the Region; and
• Protect employment lands.
As directed by the Growth Plan, the Region as a whole shall accommodate a minimum
of 40% of all new residential units within the Built-Up Areas. This will be calculated each
year, starting in 2015. The Region has given Clarington a specific minimum
intensification target of 32% of our total unit growth which will contribute to the Region's
overall goal of 40%. The remaining 8% was directed to other municipalities such as
Whitby which has a minimum intensification target of 45%.
In terms of economic development policies, the Regional Official Plan has recognized
the importance of key economic drivers that will influence the future growth and
development of the Region, including the Clarington Energy Park, Clarington
Technology Park and the Darlington Nuclear Facility expansion. These areas are to
generate the majority of employment growth in Clarington for the next 20 years.
2.3.5 Intensification Areas
To establish a complete, sustainable and compact urban system, the Region has
developed an urban structure which includes:
• Regional Centres,
• Regional Corridors,
• Waterfront Places, and
• Transit Stations.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 14
In addition, the Regional Plan directs higher densities to these areas. Refer to
Attachment 2 for detailed maps delineating these areas as well as the Built-Up Area and
Designated Greenfield Area in Courtice, Bowmanville, Newcastle and Orono. It should
be noted that in Clarington, centres, corridors, waterfront places and transit stations can
be located within the Built Boundary and the Designated Greenfield Areas. However,
development within the Designated Greenfield Areas does not count towards our
"Intensification Target".
Regional Centres, such as the Bowmanville West Town Centre, are to develop at a
density of 75 units per gross hectare, at full build out. They are to contain a full array of
institutional, commercial, major retail, residential, recreational, cultural, and office uses.
The housing units should be a mix of mostly high-rise and some mid-rise developments.
Regional Corridors, (i.e. Durham Highway 2 through Courtice) are to be developed as
high density, mixed use areas that support high order transit. As a corridor, it should
achieve a density of 60 units per gross hectare.
Waterfront places shall be developed as focal points along Lake Ontario providing for a
mix of uses integrated with the Greenlands system designation. The density target for
this area is 60 units per gross hectare.
Transit will be planned at locations with a range of uses concentrated around higher
order transit hubs such as GO rail stations. The extent of the boundaries and land use
designations are to be detailed in area municipal official plans. The density for this area
is 120 units per gross hectare.
A more detailed description of the urban structure components of the Regional Official
Plan as well as the standards and densities are detailed in Attachment 3. Centre and
Corridor policies shall provide for higher density development, while at the same time
protect the integrity of historic downtowns. To integrate intensification, phasing policies
will be developed to guide a smooth transition.
2.3.6 Secondary Plan Policies and Phasing
Another key direction of the Regional Official Plan is the ability to manage growth
through Secondary Plans. Development of Greenfield Areas that are greater than
approximately 20 hectares shall only proceed in accordance with an approved
Secondary Plan.
Development of Living Areas or Employment Areas that are less than 20 hectares, may
only proceed in the absence of a Secondary Plan, if the municipality is satisfied that the
watershed components have been addressed through studies and that other conditions
are satisfied. Such conditions include servicing, orderly development, transportation
needs, land use compatibility, protection of natural features, variety of housing needs
and mix of uses, and provision of public open spaces.
The Regional Official Plan establishes the minimum requirements for the preparation of
a Secondary Plan including: a watershed plan, plans for full municipal services, and
analysis of key natural heritage features.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 15
Given that Clarington has three shoreline urban areas, development can occur
simultaneously in Courtice, Bowmanville, and Newcastle. Clarington will also have to
develop more detailed phasing policies to guide the Secondary Planning process,
including the consideration of the amount of available land, infrastructure and public
facilities over a minimum of 5 years. Secondary Plan Areas shall be substantially
developed to their planned capacity (generally 75% of the residential land area) prior to
the approval of development in adjacent Secondary Plan Areas.
2.3.7 Employment Land Policies
There is a strong need to create and maintain a balanced relationship between
residents and jobs for each local municipality. The Regional Official Plan employment
forecasts allocated to each local municipality need to be accomplished in order for the
Region to achieve its Growth Plan employment target.
The Region has allocated 38,420 jobs to Clarington, a growth of approximately 15,854
from 2011 to 2031. Out of the 15,854 growth in jobs, the number of jobs to be created in
designated employment lands is approximately 7,736. The balance of the jobs are
considered population related jobs and are to be created in other areas of the
Municipality, mainly in schools, commercial retail, and offices. Municipalities must
ensure at least 50% of the total forecasted employment growth occurs within designated
Employment Areas.
2.4 Clarington Official Plan Review
The Municipality has been undertaking a comprehensive Official Plan Review
coincidently with the Region's conformity to the Growth Plan. As part of the Plan review,
a series of discussion papers have been prepared to form the basis of the land budget
analysis. These papers have been released to the public and public information
sessions have been held throughout the community. Relevant papers on growth
management include:
Forecast and Employment Projections, Hemson Consulting
The Forecast and Employment Projections Report was released in March 2010 and
then later updated in January 2013 to reflect the 2011 Census data release. These
outcomes will be discussed in the land budget analysis section of this report.
Economic Base and Employment Lands Discussion Paper
The Economic Base and Employment Lands Discussion Paper was released in July
2010. Conclusions from this paper include:
• Clarington has a sufficient employment land supply to accommodate forecasted
employment growth to 2031, however the lack of servicing will limit growth potential;
• Less than 10% of the vacant employment lands in Clarington are serviced;
• Clarington's economic development and investment attraction efforts are being
hampered by a low supply of serviced vacant employment lands.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 16
Intensification Discussion Paper
This Intensification Discussion Paper was released in September 2011 and deals with
the impacts of intensification policies and how to properly plan and manage the orderly
growth within Intensification Areas. The Regional Official Plan identifies a basic urban
structure for Intensification Areas comprising of designated Centres and Corridors.
The suggested strategy to accommodate intensification is as follows:
• Establish general OP policies;
• Identify specific intensification priority areas (phasing strategy); and
• Implement an action plan.
Some key priorities for Clarington are also discussed in the report:
• Address servicing constraints along Durham Highway 2, within the Courtice Main
Street Secondary Plan;
• Support historical downtown Bowmanville by reducing surface parking and creating
multilevel parking structures freeing up valuable land for infill development and
promoting residential uses downtown to support the local commercial districts; and
• Protect Newcastle Village Centre by maintaining the area's existing scale, form and
function.
Intensification shall be directed mainly to the key growth areas (Centres, Corridors,
Waterfront Places and Transit Stations). These places offer the best potential for
transforming neighbourhoods within Clarington.
Intensification can also take the form of infill in already established neighbourhoods but
on a limited scale and only where it is complementary to the character of the
surrounding neighbourhood. The policies in the Official Plan Amendment should
encourage infill in Intensification Areas but also recognize that neighbourhoods are
stable, but not static.
A general policy should be developed to articulate how the Municipality will make
infrastructure investments to support intensification. Transportation policies will need to
be modified to also include connections between Intensification Areas using active
transportation and transit.
Growth Management Discussion Paper
The Growth Management Discussion Paper was released in May 2012 and explores
how and where Clarington should continue to grow. It examines historical growth
patterns, current development plans, infill and intensification opportunities as well as
infrastructure opportunities and constraints.
This Discussion Paper provides three growth scenarios for Clarington:
1. Current Trend, Scenario 1: This scenario presents a continuation of the current
growth pattern with respect to location, density and mix of uses. As this scenario
does not meet the new policy framework it only provides a base to compare the
other two scenarios. This scenario assumes a 16% Municipal-wide intensification
rate (the historic rate between 2001 and 2006) with development spread across
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 17
vacant sites throughout the three main urban areas, with no concentration of higher
densities within centres or corridors. Scenario 1 results in a need for 807 gross
hectares of Greenfield land and 6 gross hectares of land within the Built Boundary.
2. Growing Durham, Scenario 2: This scenario uses the Region's growth management
strategy, Growing Durham, as the foundation for density and intensification targets.
This scenario incorporates the Regional densities for centres, corridors and
waterfront places. The intensification rate is 32% (6,181 units) across the three
urban areas. However, these densities are unrealistic for Clarington. This scenario
does not present a detailed land need analysis for Clarington as it was a Regional
wide exercise. It was anticipated that local municipalities would undertake a more
detailed analysis of the densities which better suited the local character.
3. Reinforcing Communities and Retaining Local Character, Scenario 3: This Scenario
is more reflective of the local character and nuances in Clarington. More specifically
it represents the three urban areas and the qualities that make each of them unique.
While Growing Durham is the starting point for establishing the urban structure and
targets, consideration is also needed for these centres and corridors to offer the best
potential for transforming neighbourhoods within Clarington into more vibrant, mixed
use, pedestrian-oriented and transit supportive areas. Using an average density for
Greenfield Areas of 19 units per gross hectare (upgh) and 70 upgh for Built-Up
Areas, this Scenario results in a need of 480 gross hectares of Greenfield land and
50 gross hectares of Intensification lands, for a combined total of 530 gross
hectares.
Planning Services is proposing a modified version of Scenario 3 for the
Comprehensive Official Plan Review which incorporates recent Census data
(2011) and more modest changes to gross densities in Greenfield and Built-up
Areas.
3. DRAFT LAND BUDGET ANALYSIS
3.1 Methodology
The Growth Plan policies, in conjunction with the Region's forecast and intensification
target allocations, are used for Clarington's land budget analysis. This land budget
analysis is based on information as of January 1, 2013 and includes updated census
data. It examines the amount of land required to accommodate the forecasted
population and the population-related employment growth. This background
assessment will then be used as a basis for an amendment to Clarington's Official Plan
which will be presented to the public and Council this year.
Residential development is limited in rural areas and Orono. Although the Provincial
Growth Plan recognizes Orono as an urban area, it is not included in the land budget
analysis because of the significant servicing constraints of the area. As a result, this
land budget analysis focuses on Clarington's three main urban areas: Courtice,
Bowmanville, and Newcastle.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 13
It is also important to clarify that this land budget analysis is not intended to identify
specific development potential for specific sites but instead identify that development
potential will be defined through the development review process. Even though this
report establishes average densities for the unit calculations, the average densities will
vary on a site by site basis.
The Provincial Government has not developed a methodology for land budgets under
the Grown Plan. This has resulted in various land budget approaches used by regional
and municipal governments. OMB decisions have also added confusion to the way new
land budget methodologies are conducted because of the different approaches that can
be used.
Rather than setting targets for Clarington's urban areas, the upcoming Official Plan
Amendment will propose a phasing strategy based on this land budget analysis and will
allow market flexibility to adjust to high densities and intensification given Clarington's
character. This flexibility is important since higher densities can only take place with the
corresponding provision of services such as water and transit. Moreover, the amount of
residential development contemplated in the Region's forecasts for Clarington will only
be met when accompanied by job creation and the provision of services. Currently 90%
of Clarington's employment lands are not serviced.
The analysis of the land budget for Clarington is based on a comprehensive
supply/demand approach for residential growth which is comprised of-three-steps:
1. Residential Land Supply: Is determined by the number of residential units that are
committed (draft approved or registered vacant) and proposed in current subdivision
applications plus the inventory of vacant developable residential land (uncommitted
lands) in each urban area. This land supply is then classified into two groups: Built-
Up Area and Greenfield Area. To calculate the amount of vacant developable land,
the environmental protection areas, as illustrated in the schedules of the recent
Natural Heritage System Discussion Paper are excluded.
The capacity of the uncommitted vacant land, as well as the timing of when the lands
expect to be developed, were conducted to determine the maximum number of units by
2031. The densities were calculated based on the Growth Plan's minimum density of
50 people and jobs per gross hectare and the Regional Official Plan allocated densities
for Centres, Corridors, Waterfront Places and Transit Stations. By analyzing the total
land area and units in the Greenfield and Built-Up Areas for all three Urban Areas we
were able to calculate an overall average density of 16 upgh for Designated Greenfield
lands (Greenfield density) and 30 upgh for lands within the Built-Up Areas.
2. Residential Demand: The second step involves determining the land requirements to
accommodate growth, which will be based on population and unit projections over
the planning period from 2011 to 2031 by urban area. This information is based on a
combination of the forecasted growth by Hemson and the Region. The average
density assumptions are then applied to determine the amount of land required to
meet the housing unit forecast in the Built-Up Area and Designated Greenfield
Areas.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 19
3. Land Needs: The last step compares the total supply of residential units and land
area available minus the total demand for Clarington over the next 18 years. The
results indicate whether Clarington's urban areas have a sufficient amount of land to
accommodate the forecasted growth within the Built-up Area and the Designated
Greenfield Areas. This analysis is also carried out for each of the urban areas and
adjustments are made based on land supply factors.
3.2 Residential Land Supply
3.2.1 Committed and Proposed Units
The supply of committed residential units (registered vacant, draft approved, and
proposed) is monitored on an ongoing basis to ensure Clarington has a minimum three
year supply of residential units in progress. The inventory of residential units in a plan of
subdivision is monitored and updated every six months by the Planning Services
Department.
The average number of building permits issued for residential units over the past ten
years is tracked by the Building Department. This average is based on the monthly
information reported to Council by the Building Department. The past ten year average
for Clarington is 704 units per year.
Another key policy is that municipalities shall maintain a residential land supply for a
minimum of 10 years on lands designated and available for residential development.
Municipalities shall also ensure that the residential unit supply within draft approved and
registered plans of subdivision provide for a minimum supply of 3 years.
Based on the inventory of committed and proposed residential units and the past ten
year average, Clarington as a whole would have a supply of units that would last 13
years based on the current trend. However, the actual supply changes as we look
closer at each urban area and future forecasts. As illustrated in Table 2, Courtice has a
six year supply, Bowmanville has 15 years, and Newcastle has 19 years, while the
supply for the Orono/rural areas is only three years. However, there is a limited supply
of land and this trend will not apply in the future given the new policies of the Growth
Plan.
Table 2 — Current Supply of Committed and Proposed Units as of December 31St,
2012
Courtice Bowmanville Newcastle Orono/Rural Clarington
Draft Approved 677 4138 1711 54 6580
Registered Vacant
lots/blocks 103 207 81 40 431
Proposed 385 1439 566 26 2416
Total 1165 5784 2358 120 9427
10 yr average 174 376 120 34 704
Years of supply 6 15 19 1 3 1 13
Years of Supply Using
Hemson Forecast 5 11 13 3 10
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 20
Another method is to look at the years of supply based on Hemson's forecasted units
instead of the past 10 year average. Below is a chart which shows the comparison. By
using Hemson's forecasted units, Clarington is expected to issue about 1,000 units per
year on average, which decreases the years of supply.
Years of Supply for Committed and Proposed Units
I I
COUrticc,
R41L"�111:]I1V111{'
0ro110JRura1
C1�1rin�;ton
2013 2015 2017 2010 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
■ Bdsed Ui1 10 YedI dverdV;e Fi Bdsed cn I leinsuiTs Unit fuiecjsL
3.2.2 Uncommitted Units (Based on Vacant Land Inventory)
An analysis was undertaken to determine the supply of vacant and potential
developable residential land available within each neighbourhood. Once the land supply
inventory was completed, a thorough analysis of the Natural Heritage Systems in these
areas was carried out. As.mentioned before, the layers that create the Natural Heritage
Systems (proposed Environmental Protection Areas) of these lands was excluded from
the calculations of land inventory. Refer to the Natural Heritage System Discussion
Paper for the methodology to define the proposed Environmental Protection areas of
Clarington.
The result is referred to as the "Total Residential Designated Land". In order to
determine the realistic amount of land that could be available for development, a
neighbourhood by neighbourhood analysis was conducted which reduced the amount of
available area for development if there were constraining elements such as:
• Multiple large lots with existing dwelling units;
• Size and configuration of the lots; and
• Whether lands were fragmented by proposed Environmental Protection areas which
would be difficult to access.
• Assumed a normal market vacancy (eg. Owners not willing to explore
development).
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 21
After analyzing the land area available for development based on these constraints, we
arrived at the "Gross Developable Area". It is at this stage that the average densities
are applied to determine future capacity. Overall the Municipality has approximately 130
and 535 hectares of Gross Developable Land within the Built-Up Area and Greenfield
Area, respectively. Table 3 summarizes the land supply in Clarington both within the
Built-up Area and in the Designated Greenfield Area.
Table 3 —Current Land Supply Available in Clarington for Uncommitted Units
Total
Total Land EP Residential Gross
Area (ha) Land Designated Developable
(ha) Land Area Area (ha)
ha
Built-Up Area land supply 274 84 190 130
Designated Greenfield 1,005 278 727 535
Area land supply
Total land supply 1,279 362 1 917 1 665
An additional "take-out" of land could be made to arrive at a "Net Developable Area."
This is the actual amount of land to be used for residential development (buildings,
parking) after subtracting 50% of the land which will be dedicated to roads, schools,
parks, and commercial development. For the purposes of this land budget analysis, the
land densities have been calculated at the "Gross Developable Area" since there is
greater variability when calculating at the "Net Developable Area".
3.3 Residential Demand
This section explains the growth forecasted by population and unit projections for each
of the Urban Areas to 2031. Consideration is also given to the intensification target to be
accommodated within the Built-Up Areas of Clarington. The analysis is based on the
forecasted growth completed by Hemson as well as the Region's allocations in the
Regional Official Plan. This is a top down analysis for the distribution of units.
3.3.1 Hemson Population and Unit Forecasts
Hemson's forecast reflects the changes in population, household size and housing unit
data collected from the 2011 Census information. The report finds that Clarington's
population has grown steadily over the last 10 years and will continue to grow at around
the same rate to 2031(see Attachment 2 for the Hemson Report).
Table 4 indicates that Clarington will grow by 52,700 people from 2011 to 2031, similar
to the Region's forecast. Hemson's forecast shows that Newcastle will grow at a faster
rate than Courtice and Bowmanville.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 22
Table 4- Hemson Population Forecast for Clarington from 2011 to 2031
• Total
2011+ 24,900 36,100 8,300 18,400 87,700
2031 36,600 64,200 19,300 20,300 140,400
Growth 2011-2031 11,700 28,100 11,000 1,900 52,700
47% 78% 132% 10% 60%
'Based on 2011 Census data
Population is total population including Census net under-coverage (Source: Hemson
Consulting Inc.& Census Canada)
Hemson's dwelling unit forecast is based on past Census data trends. The number of
forecasted households is determined by taking the total forecasted population and
dividing it by the expected future average household size. It should be noted that longer
planning time frames can often result in greater market uncertainty and timing risks.
Table 5 indicates that in 2011 Clarington's housing stock consisted of 29,940 units and
is expected to grow to 49,880 units by 2031, an increase of 19,940 units. The
distribution of Clarington housing units to each urban area is shown below.
Table 5- Hemson Household Unit Forecast for Clarington to 2031
Courtice Bowmanville Orono/Rural T
2011 8,020 12,510 2,830 6,580 29,940
2031 12,200 23,380 6,810 7,490 49,880
Growth 2011- 4,180 10,870 3,980 910 19,940
2031 52% 87% 140% 14% 67%
Avg. Person Per
Unit (PPU) at
2031 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8
3.3.2 Comparison Between the Regional Forecasts and Hemson Forecasts
The total housing units predicted by Hemson's forecasts are slightly lower than what the
Region has allocated to Clarington. The Region expects Clarington to grow by an
additional 21 ,895 units by 2031, compared to the Hemson forecast of 19,940 units, a
difference of 1,955 units. One of the main reasons for the difference is that Hemson's
forecast is based on recent 2011 Census information while the Region's forecast was
sourced from the 2001 Census information. Moreover, the Region does not provide a
breakdown of the distribution of households by urban area within Clarington, whereas
Hemson does.
There is also a difference between the Region and Hemson's forecasts for the rural
area. As part of the Countryside Discussion Paper, currently being prepared by the
Planning Services Department, an analysis of the projections and capacity for additional
units within the rural hamlets and areas, will be presented.
Household composition is a very important factor affecting demand for housing units. In
general, a high percentage of the population is aging and family structures are
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 23
changing. Current trends in Ontario indicate a decrease in the average number of
people per unit (ppu).
The decrease in the average household size in Ontario is somewhat offset in Clarington
because there is a greater in-migration of young families. Clarington is more attractive
to younger families because of the relatively large housing supply, affordability, and its
proximity to Toronto. Due to this factor, Clarington has a higher ppu than the Region's
average.
The population forecast from Hemson and the Region are relatively the same, the
difference is in the number of units. However, the Region's forecast is a legislated
forecast, therefore, to conform to the Regional Official Plan the land supply analysis will
use the overall forecast as set by the Regional Official Plan. Hemson's forecast will be
used to determine the land supply by urban area.
Forecasted Unit Demand
Before determining the unit forecast, it is necessary to devise a method which
redistributes the difference in units between Hemson's and the Region's forecast of
1,955 units and the intensification target of 6,181 units among Clarington's urban areas.
Staff's approach is to distribute these units based on the total share of population as of
2031 for each urban area given in Hemson's Community Forecast for Clarington. This is
shown in Table 6. Based on this approach Bowmanville will receive 53.5% of both
additional units and intensification target units. This approach is in keeping with the
Official Plan which states that Bowmanville is the predominant urban centre. This
method will be used for any other adjustments of units/land through the Official Plan
Review process.
Table 6— Population Shares Based on Hemson Forecast and Distribution of Units
Intensification Total Urban Area Urban Distribution of Distribution
Population Population Area % Unit Difference of Targeted
2031 2031 Share Hemson/Region
Allocation
Courtice 36,600 36,600 30.5% 595 1,884
Bowmanville 64,200 64,200 53.5% 1,045 3,304
Newcastle 19,300 19,300 16.1% 315 993
Rural 20,300 0 0.0%
h:Slarington 140,400 120,100 100.0% 1,955 6,181
To ensure data consistency with the December 2012 committed and proposed units,
another step in determining the forecasted unit demand is required to account for the
1,399 units built between January 2011 and December 2012.
This step determines the demand of housing units in the Designated Greenfield and
Built-Up Areas in each of the three communities, after taking out the units already built
between 2011 and 2012. This will result in the total number of units Clarington is
expected to grow by from 2013 to 2031, which is 20,496 units. Table 7 illustrates the
unit allocation to each urban area.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 24
Table 7 —Unit Allocation by Urban Area 2013-2031
UNIT ALLOCATION
Hemson forecast units 2011-2031 4,180 10,870 3,980 910 19,940
Additional Allocation 1,955 units from 595 1,045 315 0 1,955
Region+
Total Unit Allocation 2011-2031 4,775 11,915 4,295 910 21,895
Units built in 2011 & 2012++ 488 650 204 57 1,399
Remaining Unit Growth 2013-2031 4,287 11,265 4,091 853 20,496
Targeted Intensification Allocation 1,884 3,304 993 0 6,181
Units, 2015-2031+
Greenfield Allocation Units, 2013-2031 2,403 7,961 3,098 0 13,462+++
+Based on Table 6
++from Building Division's Annual Permit Report
+++does not account for rural units
3.4 Land Budget for Intensification Areas
The Regional Official Plan has set an intensification target of 6,181 units between 2015
and 2031. The current supply of committed (registered vacant, draft approved) and
proposed units includes a number of projects within the Built Boundary. The committed
and proposed units within the Built-Up Areas of Clarington stands at 3,039, which
leaves 3,142 uncommitted units to plan for in order to achieve the intensification target.
See Table 8.
The land supply for the Built-Up Area does not include any future grayfield/brownfield
redevelopment or secondary units. As a result, provided that the transit, regional and
municipal infrastructure, and soft services (e.g. seniors centres, libraries) are available,
the Municipality will likely exceed its intensification target if the Built-Up Areas are built
at higher densities.
Based on the neighbourhood by neighbourhood analysis and the densities of past
subdivision applications, staff has applied an average density of 30 upgh for Built-Up
Areas. This density is equivalent to about 66 people per gross hectare (using Hemson's
2.2 ppu for medium and high density households in 2031). Of the 6,181 Intensification
units, there are 3,142 remaining units that need to be accommodated on vacant lands.
Using a density of 30 upgh, Clarington would need 105 ha to accommodate our
intensification target (refer to Table 8 below). Since the available land supply is
approximately 130 ha, we would still have about 25 ha of surplus land within the Built
Boundary in Clarington.
Table 8 —Gross Area Required for Clarin ton's Intensification Units 2015-2031
Intensification Units Required (2015-2031) 6,181
Committed and proposed Units within the Built-Up Area 3,039
Draft approved, vacant registered, proposed)
Remaining Intensification Units 3,142
Gross Area Required 30 upgh) 105 ha
Land Supply 130 ha
Surplus 25 ha
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 25
However, the land supply picture for the Built-Up Areas changes when the analysis is
carried out by urban area as shown in Table 9. Bowmanville has the largest amount of
committed and proposed intensification units within the Built Boundary, close to 73% of
its allocation, while Courtice only has 14%. The analysis also demonstrates that
Courtice and Bowmanville have surplus land to accommodate the targeted
intensification units.
Moreover, the supply-demand analysis shows that Newcastle does not have enough
land to accommodate its allocation of uncommitted Intensification units; Newcastle can
only accommodate about 150 more units within the Built Boundary. However Courtice
and Bowmanville have an excess supply of lands within the Built Boundary. If Clarington
adjusts the remaining intensification units that need to be accommodated in Newcastle
to Courtice and Bowmanville, we will be able to achieve the intensification target for
Clarington as a whole. To protect the character of Newcastle and given the lack of
available sites, the intensification unit allocation has been reduced for Newcastle and
reallocated to Bowmanville and Courtice based on the method of share of total
population as explained in Table 6.
By adjusting Newcastle's Intensification units, Courtice will still have an excess supply
of 18 hectares and Bowmanville will have an excess supply of 7 hectares. Overall,
Clarington will possess an excess supply of 25 hectares within the Built Boundary.
Table 9 reflects these calculations.
Table 9 — Land Budget to Meet Intensification Target
Courtice Bowmanville Newcastle Total
Urban
Areas
Intensification Allocation Units, 2015-2031 1,884 3,304 993 6,181
Total Committed and Proposed Units within 260 2,405 374 3,039
the Built Boundary
Total Units Remaining 1,624 899 619 3,142
Land required (Density as per analysis 30 54 30 21 105
upgh )
Gross developable land available 78 47 5 130
Surplus/deficit land within the Built Boundary 24 17 -16 25
Redistribution of Newcastle Intensification 171 298 -469
Units
Revised Remaining Units to be located within 1,795 1,197 150 39142
the Built Boundary
Land area required to accommodate 60 40 5 105
remaining units (Density as per analysis 30
upgh )
Gross developable land available 78 47 5 130
Surplus land within the Built Boundary 18 7 0 25
Another factor to consider is that between 2013 and 2014 some units will be built within
the built boundary but will not count towards the intensification target of 6,181 units.
Last year (2012), a total of 78 units were built within the Built Boundary. If multiplied
over the next two years, Clarington will have 156 units that will be built by 2015. 156
units translates to about 5 ha of land that will be taken up by 2015, which will leave
about 20 ha of excess land beyond 2031.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 26
3.5 Land Area Budget for Designated Greenfield Areas
From the previous table (Table 7), the total remaining units to be accommodated in
Greenfield Areas is 13,462, between 2013 and 2031. Table 10 below, shows that after
subtracting the committed and proposed units Clarington requires about 450 ha of land
to accommodate the remaining 7,195 Greenfield units for the next 18 years.
Table 10—Land Budget for Clarin ton's Greenfield Units 2013-2031
Greenfield Units Required (2013-2031) 13,462
Committed and Proposed Greenfield Units 6,267
(Draft approved, vacant registered, proposed)
Remaining Greenfield Units 7,195
Gross Area Required (16 upgh) 450 ha
Land Supply 535 ha
Surplus 85 ha
The average density of 16 upgh for Greenfield Areas is in keeping with the Growth Plan
target of 50 people and jobs combined per gross hectare. Using Hemson's average of
2.7 people per unit, there would be 43 people per gross ha and 7 population related
employment jobs. There are primarily two forms of population related employment,
individuals that the work at home and commercial employment that grows in proportion
with residential population growth.
To illustrate the concept of densities, the following are images of compact suburban
development patterns which the Growth Plan is striving to achieve in Designated
Greenfield Areas.
hl
i
Examples of compact, pedestrian oriented homes
Source:Copyright Queen's Printer for Ontario,photo source:Ontario Growth Secretariat,Ministry of Infrastructure
Table 11 below shows the land supply by Urban Area for Designated Greenfield Areas.
Bowmanville has the largest amount of committed and proposed units at 3,379, while
Courtice only has 904 units. The analysis also demonstrates that Courtice has the
greatest surplus of land for additional Greenfield units.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 27
Table 11—Land Needs for Greenfield Areas by Urban Area
Courtice Bowmanville Newcastle Total Urban
Areas
Greenfield Allocation Units 2,403 7,961 3,098 13,462
Total Committed and Proposed Greenfield 904 3,379 1,984 6,267
Units
Total Remaining Greenfield Units 1,499 4,582 1,114 7,195
Land required (Density as per analysis 16 94 286 70 450
upgh )
Gross useable developable land available 194 274 67 535
Surplus/deficit land for Greenfield 100 -12 -3 85
Development
Redistribution of Bowmanville and 240 -198 -42
Newcastle Greenfield Units
Revised Remaining Greenfield Units 1,739 4,384 1,072 7,195
Land required (Density as per analysis 16 109 274 67 450
upgh )
Gross developable land available 194 274 67 535
Surplus land for Greenfield 85 0 0 85
Bowmanville and Newcastle have a slight shortfall of Greenfield land to accommodate
the expected growth which means some of the forecasted growth will need to be
adjusted and directed to Courtice, which has 100 ha of excess supply of Greenfield land
available. After these adjustments have been made, Courtice will have an excess land
supply of 85 ha.
3.6 Commercial Land Needs
It is also necessary to have an understanding of the need for commercial lands since
commercial development is an integral component of residential development. As part
of the Official Plan Review, the Municipality asked UrbanMetrics to undertake a
Commercial Market Update to determine the amount of land required to accommodate
commercial uses to 2031. Based on the chart below, Clarington only requires an
additional 36.8 ha of commercial land to 2031. The need for more commercial lands will
not be required until 2021, at which time the five year review of the Official Plan can
address where the new commercial lands should be located.
Courtice will be well served for commercial lands for the next few years. Meanwhile,
allocating new commercial lands will be needed in Bowmanville and Newcastle. Some
of the commercial development needs will be accommodated through the designation of
new neighbourhood centres in the proposed secondary plan areas.
Table 12 -Additional land area required for Commercial Uses ha
Courtice • Total
2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2021 0.0 2.5 1.6 0.0 4.1
2026 0.0 16.3 3.2 0.0 19.5
2031 2.4 29.6 4.8 0.0 36.8
Source: Commercial Market Analysis Update, Municipality of Clarington: Completed by
UrbanMetrics Inc.
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 28
Although no new commercial lands are required within the next few years, there are
geographical and market dynamics that need to be taken into account. From a
geographical perspective Newcastle, has very little designated commercial land
available for new businesses. From a local market perspective, even though
Clarington's urban areas seem to be well served, small professional businesses
continue to express difficulty in finding suitable sites in which to locate. From a market
dynamics perspective the retail and office sector is changing at a fast pace (eg. fewer
large format retailers) and although we have enough supply, new commercial land may
be required in certain areas to respond to unique opportunities.
4. CONCLUSION
4.1 Overall, Clarington has an excess supply of land available for residential development.
More specifically, Clarington has 25 ha of excess land within the Built-Up Areas and 85
ha of excess Greenfield land. This indicates that Clarington will be able to meet its
growth forecasts and targets. Table 13 gives the overall summary of the land budget
analysis.
Table 13 — Land Budget Summary for Clarington's Urban Areas
Units within the TOTAL*
Built Boundary Greenfield Units
(2015-2031) (2013-2031)
Required Units 6,181 13,462 19,643
Committed and Proposed Units 3,039 6,267 9,306
Remaining Units 3,142 7,195 10,337
Gross Area Required for Remaining
Units 30 up h/16 up h 105 ha 450 ha 555 ha
Supply 130 ha 535 ha 665 ha
Surplus 25 ha 85 ha 110 ha
*Totals do not include rural units or areas
Tables 14 and 15 give the final Intensification and Greenfield unit allocations for the
three urban areas in Clarington, after accounting for Newcastle's deficit of land area
within the Built Boundary and the Bowmanville and Newcastle deficit in the Greenfield
Areas.
Table 14—Final Land Budget for Intensification Units by Urban Area
Total Urban
Courtice Bowmanville Newcastle Areas
Intensification Allocation Units, 2015-
2031 2,055 3,602 524 6,181
Total Committed and Proposed Units 260 2,405 374 3,039
Total Units Remaining 1,795 1,197 150 3,142
Land required (Density as per analysis 30
upgh ) 60 40 5 105
Gross developable land available 78 47 5 130
Surplus land within the Built Boundary 18 7 1 0 1 25
REPORT NO.: PSD-043-13 PAGE 29
Table 15— Final Land Budget for Greenfield Units b y Urban Area
Total Urban
Courtice Bowmanville Newcastle Areas
Greenfield Allocation Units 2013-2031 2,643 7,763 3,056 13,462
Total Committed and Proposed Units 904 3,379 1,984 6,267
Total Units Remaining 1,739 4,384 1,072 7,195
Land required (Density as per analysis
16 upgh ) 109 274 67 450
Gross developable land available 194 274 67 535
Surplus land within Greenfield Areas 85 0 0 85
The land budget presented in this report clearly demonstrates that Clarington can meet
the growth forecast and intensification target as set out by the Region. The land budget
analysis concludes that there is sufficient capacity within the overall Built Boundary and
Designated Greenfield Areas to accommodate the forecasted population and units. This
is in conformity with the policies of the Growth Plan and the Regional Official Plan and
progresses towards a compact, pedestrian and transit supportive community designed
to achieve an average minimum density of 50 people and jobs per ha in the Designated
Greenfield Areas and a minimum intensification target of 6,181 units.
The upcoming Official Plan Amendment will need to provide policies which achieve the
Region's forecasts for Clarington's 140,340 people and 52,120 households, while
providing a well integrated urban form that is compatible with the existing character of
each respective community.
4.2 Challenges for Clarington
Accommodating intensification will be a challenge. Although land supply is available,
Clarington is on the periphery of the Region and does not have the same resources
(e.g. sewer, water) and advantages (e.g. GO Train, Bus Rapid Transit, proximity to
Toronto) as other municipalities to attract new residents that would choose to live in
higher densities. Should these services continue to not be available, Clarington will
have difficulty meeting the intensification target.
Moreover, Clarington's contribution to the Regional intensification targets will be limited
due to the large rural areas and the low density form of most neighbourhoods. The
Municipality will need to more than double its Intensification rate to meet the Region's
targets. Consequently, it might be necessary to supplement our current development
charge incentives for intensification.
Given the nature of uncertainty in long range forecasting, another precaution is
necessary. Overestimating the density assumptions in the Designated Greenfield Areas
may misrepresent the actual amount of residential development lands in Clarington. At
the same time the Intensification density assumptions are uncharacteristically high for
Clarington and would not conform to the local character of most neighbourhoods. So it
is not just necessary to have services and market demand for intensification, it is also
necessary to have community acceptance and support for this type of compact
development. The Official Plan needs to provide clear guidance through urban design
policies and guidelines as to how intensification will take place while respecting the
REPORT NO.: PS®-043-13 PAGE 30
character of stable neighbourhoods. Community awareness and education on the
benefits of compact development is necessary as well as a clearly defined urban design
polices to ensure community character is maintained and enhanced.
Another concern for Clarington is that a large portion of the committed Greenfield
development does not have sufficient services allocated to them and would require
these services before development can proceed. The cost of providing these services in
combination with the amount of excess land, means that Clarington will need to prepare
a phasing strategy which will examine access to municipal and regional servicing and
the financial implications of servicing these lands.
Another challenge that Clarington faces in planning for 52,000 people and 22,000
greenfield and intensification units is the impact of this growth on our natural
environment. The community has established the protection of the environment as the
first priority of the Official Plan Review. Accordingly, the Natural Heritage system that is
being proposed reflects this priority. In addition, the PRIORITY GREEN Clarington
project initiated recently by Council and funded by the Ministry of Environment and the
Federation of Canadian Municipalities Green Fund will look into how development from
site plan to building construction, will support conservation of our natural resources
while fostering our quality of life.
It is important to recognize that there will be additional opportunities to examine the land
budget for Clarington to 2031. In accordance with the Planning Act, the Official Plan is
to be reviewed every five years after the date the comprehensive review of the Official
Plan comes into force and effect. As a result a minimum of three such reviews will occur
before the 2031 planning horizon, which provides an opportunity to revisit assumptions,
and respond to market conditions and new legislation.
While there are many challenges that Clarington will face over the next 20 years, the
policy changes introduced in the Growth Plan are important for the success of the
Municipality to meet the growing needs of our aging population, to provide vibrant,
diversified, and active environments (good quality of life), to obtain economic efficiency
on the growing infrastructure costs (including public transit), and to rethink the traditional
form of our communities.
"The real challenge is not to do away with suburbs, as some critics
seem to imply, but to adapt them more effectively to changing needs
and circumstances and to changing public attitudes and expectations
about suburban development, suburban environment, and the
suburban way of life. In this respect, Canadian suburbs, and hence
Canadian cities, must forever remain in transition." (Canadian Cities
in Transition, 2006: Chapter 12— Suburbs, Peter J. Smith)
REPORT NO.: PSD®043®13 PAGE 31
CONFORMITY WITH STRATEGIC PLAN — Not Applicable
Staff Contact: Carlos Salazar and Nicole Granzotto
Attachments:
Attachment 1 — Glossary/Definitions
Attachment 2a — Courtice Urban Area Structure
Attachment 2b — Bowmanville Urban Area Structure
Attachment 2c — Newcastle Urban Area Structure
Attachment 2d — Orono Urban Area Structure
Attachment 3 — Regional Official Plan Characteristics of Each Urban Component
Attachment 4 — Hemson Community Forecast Report for Clarington, January 2013
List of interested parties to be notified of Council's decision:
List of interested parties can be obtained from the Planning Services Department.
Attachment 1
To Report PSD-043-13
DEFINITIONS
Settlement Area Boundary: The boundary of land that have been designated for urban
development in an Official Plan.
Built Boundary: The limits of the developed urban area as defined by the Ministry of
Infrastructure on April 2"d, 2008.
Designated Greenfield Area: The area between the settlement boundary and the built
boundary that has been approved for development but is currently vacant.
Built-up Area: all land within the built boundary.
Intensification Areas: Area within the built boundary but further identified by the
municipality.
Urban Growth Centres: These areas are identified in the Growth Plan and are generally
downtowns of large and mid-size cities.
Intensification Corridor. Intensification areas along major roads, arterials or higher order
transit corridors that have the potential to provide a focus for higher density mix-use
development consistent with planned transit service levels.
Major Transit Station Areas: The area including or around any existing or planned
higher order transit station within a settlement area, or a major bus depot in an urban
core.
Floor space index (FSI): means the ratio of gross floor area of a building to its
respective lot area. For example, a lot with an area of 10,000 square metres would
support a building of 25,000 square metres or more, based on a FSI of 2.5 (ratio of
2.5:1).
Gross density. is a means of measuring the ratio of people, jobs and units to a broad
land area (e.g. Greenfield areas). For the purposes of the Regional Official Plan, the
measurement excludes significant natural heritage features (wetlands, coastal wetlands,
woodlands, valley lands, areas of natural and scientific interest, habitat of endangered
species and threatened species, wildlife habitat and fish habitat), and major
infrastructure that is built or approved under the Environmental Assessment Act
(provincial 400 series highway rights-of-way, hydro corridors, hydro generation stations
and airports).
Net density: is a means of measuring the ratio of people, jobs, or units to the
developable parcel level. For the purposes of this Plan, approximately 45% of the gross
land area has been used to calculate the net density (REGION definition)
Attachment 2a
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Attachment 3
To Report PSD-043-13
Regional Official Plan Characteristics of Each Urban Component
Density Floor
Urban Structure Location per Space Built Form
Gross ha* Index
Regional Centres: 1. Courtice Town Centre 75 residential 2.5 Mix of mostly high-rise
These areas are to be planned 2. Bowmanville West Town units and some mid-rise
as the main concentration of Centre developments.
urban activities but generally at 3. Bowmanville East Town
a smaller scale than Urban Centre
Growth Centres providing a 4. Newcastle Village Centre
fully integrated array of
institutional, commercial, major Note: These areas were
retail, residential, recreational, already designated in the
cultural, entertainment and previous Official Plan.
major office uses. They should
function as a symbolic and
physical interest for the
residents and provide identity
to the local area.
Local Centres: To be identified by the 30 2.0 A variety of mid-rise
Shall be detailed in area Municipality as part of the residential and some low and
municipal official plans. Clarington Official Plan units high buildings.
Review process.
Regional Corridors: 1. Highway 2 (Courtice) 60 2.5 Living Areas along the
These areas are to be planned 2. Courtice Rd. from residential Regional Corridors
for higher density mixed use Highway 2 to 401 units are to be developed
developments that will support (Courtice) for higher density
higher order transportation 3. Bloor St. (Courtice) mixed use
services and pedestrian 4. King St. (Bowmanville) developments.
oriented built forms. The
Regional corridors provide *King St. and Highway 2
efficient transportation links to were designated as
Urban Growth Centres and Regional Corridors in the
Regional Centres as well as previous Official Plan.
other centres within the
municipalities.
Local Corridors: May be designated as of the 30 2.0 The built form should
Shall be detailed in area Clarington Official Plan residential be a wide variety of
municipal official plans. Review process. units mid-rise buildings.
Waterfront Places: 1. Port Darlington 60 2.0 The built form should
Waterfront places shall be 2. Port of Newcastle residential be sensitive to the
developed as focal points along units natural environment.
the Lake Ontario waterfront Note: These areas were
providing for a mix of uses, already designated in the
integrated with the "Greenlands previous Official Plan.
System" designation. Uses
include residential, commercial,
marina, recreational, tourist,
and cultural and community
facilities.
i
i
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i
Density Floor
Urban Structure Location per Space Built Form
Gross ha* Index
Transit Stations: 1. Future Courtice GO Rail 120 n/a Areas surrounding
These areas are major travel Station Area. residential these transit stations
destinations and facilitate 2. Future Bowmanville GO units are to be developed
transfers between different Rail Station Area. for higher densities
modes of travel or between and a mix of uses at
transit services. The extent and Note: These areas may be an appropriate scale
delineation of the boundaries designated in Clarington's and context. The built
and land use designations shall Official Plan. form should be
be detailed in area municipal designed in a way
official plans. which reduces walking
distances to transfer
facilities and supports
non-auto modes by
reducing surface
parking.
*refers to the overall long term density target calculated to a broad land area and not to a
specific site
I
i
MEMORANDUMTOMEMORANDUMTO
MEMORANDUMMEMORANDUMTOTO
THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTONTHE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
Re: Clarington Community Forecast Update 2013 Re: Clarington Community Forecast Update 2013
HEMSON
C o n s u l t i n g L t d.
30 Saint Patrick Street, Suite 1000
Toronto, ON, M5T 3A3
,,
January 25, 2013
HEMSON
C o n s u l t i n g L t d.
30 St. Patrick Street, Suite 1000, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5T 3A3
Facsimile (416) 595-7144 Telephone (416) 593-5090
e-mail: hemson@hemson.com
MEMORANDUM
To:
Carlos Salazar
From:
Russell Mathew, Stefan Krzeczunowicz
Date:
January 25, 2013
Re:
Clarington Community Forecast Update 2013
In 2009, as part of planning for long-term growth and to assist with the
implementation of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (the Growth
Plan) and the Durham Regional Plan, Hemson Consulting Ltd. was retained by the
Municipality of Clarington to prepare growth forecasts. The forecasts were of
population, housing and employment for the entire municipality as well as for the
three urban communities of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle, and the rural
area within Clarington.
Statistics Canada has recently released population, households and housing data
collected as part of the 2011 Census. Given the need for up-to-date growth forecasts
for land use planning, the Municipality has retained Hemson to review and update
the 2009 population and housing forecasts. This memorandum summarizes the
results of the review.
Employment data from the 2011 Census is not scheduled to be released until the
spring of 2013. Therefore, the review does not update the 2009 employment forecast.
2
A.MUNICIPALITY-WIDE POPULATION FORECAST STILL BASED ON REGIONS
2031 POPULATION ALLOCATION
The Growth Plan establishes population and employment forecasts to 2031 for the
Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) and its constituent upper- and single-tier
municipalities, including the Region of Durham. On November 2, 2012, the
Province released a proposed amendment to the Growth Plan that would update the
forecasts. Of importance to this review is that:
the proposed amendment extends the forecasts for the Region of Durham to
2041;
the forecasts are premised on slightly higher population growth in the Region
than what is anticipated under the current Growth Plan970,000 people under
the proposed amendment versus 960,000 people in the Growth Plan; and
notwithstanding the slightly higher population growth, the 2031 population and
employment forecasts for the Region under the proposed amendment would
remain the same960,000 people and 350,000 employmentas in the current
Growth Plan.
Under the proposed amendment, upper-tier municipalities would still be responsible
for allocating the forecasts provided in the Growth Plan to local municipalities.
Given that Durhams 2031 population forecast remains 960,000, it has been assumed
in this review that the Regions population allocation for Clarington of 140,300 by
1
2031 would also remain unchanged.
The updated population forecast is shown in Table 1.
1
The 2031 forecast allocated to Clarington represents the total population, in that it includes
an estimate of Census net under-coverage (or undercount). Total population is distinct from the
Census population, which excludes the undercount.
HEMSON
3
Table 1
Clarington Population Growth Forecast
Total GrowthCompound Annual 2009 Forecast
Growth Rate
1986 35,40035,400
1991 51,40016,0007.8%51,400
1996 63,00011,6004.1%63,000
2001 72,6009,6002.9%72,600
2006 80,9008,3002.2%80,900
2011 87,7006,7001.6%89,700
2016 97,1009,4002.1%100,800
2021 109,80012,6002.5%114,100
2026 123,90014,1002.5%127,600
2031 140,40016,5002.5%140,300
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Note: Population is total population including Census net under-coverage.
B.MUNICIPALITY-WIDE HOUSEHOLD FORECAST IS LOWER THAN 2009
REFLECTING UPDATED DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS
The forecasts in the proposed Growth Plan amendment include updated assumptions
about fertility, mortality and migration and project higher population growth for
nearly every municipality in the GGH. However, in most cases the forecasts do not
result in a corresponding increase in housing units to accommodate the added
population. This is because the two biggest factors influencing higher growth
higher fertility and longer life expectancydo not result in a corresponding increase
in housing units:
Higher fertility rates contribute to a higher population forecast for the GGH
and Region of Durham. However, much of the additional population (i.e.
children) will be accommodated within existing households.
Increased life expectancy also contributes to a higher population forecast for the
GGH and Region. This tends to extend the term of existing two-person
households and reduce the growth of single-person households among the
elderly. As a result, fewer additional households are created.
HEMSON
4
In effect, higher fertility and life expectancy will lead to higher household sizes in
Durham, which reduces the growth of households and housing units. The population
of 970,000 forecast for Durham in 2031 is projected to be accommodated within
336,160 households. In contrast, the new Regional Official Plan (based on the
currently proposed settlement of the Seaton and ROPA 128 Ontario Municipal
Board hearings) is based on 960,000 people being accommodated within 356,610
2
households by 2031.
The effects of higher fertility and mortality on the forecasts for Clarington are
similar. While the 2009 forecasts anticipated the 2031 population of 140,300 being
3
accommodated in 50,700 households, the forecast update projects the same
population being accommodated in 49,800 households (see Table 1).
Table 2
Clarington Household Forecast
2012 Forecast Update2009 Forecast
Total GrowthAnnual Average Total Average
Households Rate Household Households Household
Size Size
1986 10,900 3.0710,900 3.07
1991 16,400 5,5008.5%2.9816,400 2.98
1996 20,100 3,7004.2%2.9820,100 2.98
2001 23,200 3,1002.9%2.9723,200 2.97
2006 26,900 3,7003.0%2.8726,900 2.87
2011 29,900 3,0002.2%2.8030,200 2.82
2016 33,600 3,7002.4%2.7634,600 2.77
2021 38,400 4,8002.7%2.7339,900 2.72
2026 43,800 5,4002.7%2.7045,400 2.68
2031 49,800 6,1002.6%2.6950,700 2.66
Change 19,900 (0.11)20,500 (0.21)
2011-2031 (3.9%)(7.3%)
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Note: Average household size is calculated by dividing the Census population by the
total number of households.
2
For more discussion see Hemson Consulting, Greater Golden Horseshoe Forecasts to 2041,
November 2012, at www.hemson.com.
3
Note that the Regional Official Plan is based on Clarington achieving 52,100 households by
2031.
HEMSON
5
The approach to forecasting households in Clarington remains consistent with 2009
forecast and is based on the following steps:
A household forecast for the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH) is
prepared by applying age-specific household formation rates to the GTAH
population forecast in the proposed Growth Plan amendment;
The household forecast is converted into a forecast of housing units by type;
The new housing units are allocated to the Region of Durham based on factors
such as historical patterns, the effects of planning policies, the land available to
support development, and the capacity (environmental and infrastructure) of
the Region to accommodate the forecast growth.
The housing units forecast for the Region are allocated to the lower-tier
municipalities based on similar factors. Claringtons forecast share of the
Regional housing market is shown in Table 3.
Household and housing by unit type figures have been updated to reflect 2011
Census data and (for the post-Census day 2011 period) building permit data provided
by the Municipality. In this way, the forecast growth in housing units by type takes
account of recent and anticipated shifts in unit types at the local and regional level.
Table 3
Clarington Share of Durham Region Housing Unit Completions by Type
Single Semi-RowsApartments Total
Detached Detached
1986-91 20.4% 4.5%11.1%9.3% 17.6%
1991-96 27.8% 20.7%27.8%3.7% 22.7%
1996-01 17.7% 2.5%17.6%11.0% 18.4%
2001-06 21.8% 0.9%8.6%34.7% 16.1%
2006-11 17.6% (6.5%)8.7%29.4% 15.9%
2011-16 22.0% 5.0%16.0%13.0% 17.7%
2016-21 19.0% 10.0%16.0%12.5% 16.7%
2021-26 18.0% 12.0%16.0%12.5% 16.0%
2026-31 17.1% 15.0%16.0%12.0% 15.5%
Source: CMHC and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
The table shows that Clarington is forecast to maintain its current market share for
single-detached housing and slightly increase its shares of the regional semi-detached
and row house market. As in 2009, the Municipalitys share of the regional
apartment market is forecast to decline over the period to 2031.
HEMSON
6
C.ALLOCATION TO COMMUNITIES REMAINS BASED ON HOUSING MARKET
SHARES
The distribution of the overall Clarington housing forecast to its local communities
is based on a similar approach to the distribution method to Durham and its
constituent lower-tier municipalities. It is generally assumed that the ultimate land
capacity in each community remains the same as in 2009. However, the unit types
within the ground-related (i.e. non-apartment) units have been shifted to account
for changes in the demand as evidenced by the 2011 Census as well as changes in
near-term supply as shown in the registered, draft approved and subdivision
application information provided by the Municipality.
As in 2009, most of the forecast housing unit growth in the Municipality is
anticipated to occur in the urban areas of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle.
The Municipalitys rural area, consistent with both market expectations and
planning objectives, is not forecast to accommodate significant growth. The
distribution of the Clarington housing market to the local communities results in an
overall forecast of households by community, which is shown in Table 4 below.
Table 4
Clarington Households by Community
Bowmanville CourticeNewcastleRuralTotal
2006 10,650 7,3603,0305,86026,900
2011 12,510 8,020 2,830 6,580 29,940
2016 14,410 9,1003,3706,76033,640
2021 16,920 10,260 4,260 6,980 38,420
2026 20,000 11,220 5,390 7,220 43,820
2031 23,380 12,200 6,810 7,490 49,880
Growth
12,700 4,800 4,100 1,300 23,000
2006-31
Source: Statistics Canada Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Note: The Newcastle community includes the Wilmot Creek neighbourhood. The Rural
area in this analysis is slightly different from that used by the Region in its population
figures for the Clarington Rural area in ROPA 128. The main difference is that Orono is
part of the rural area for this analysis, but is part of the urban area in the Regions work.
HEMSON
7
The population forecast for each community is prepared by applying household size
factors (persons per unit or ppu) by unit type to the household forecast, resulting in a
forecast of the household population by community. To this, a small component of
non-household population is added and the resulting figure is adjusted to account for
the Census net under-coverage. The total population forecast by community is
shown in Table 5.
Table 5
Clarington Population by Community
Bowmanville CourticeNewcastleRuralTotal
2006 31,600 23,2008,90017,20080,900
2011 36,100 24,900 8,300 18,400 87,700
2016 40,500 28,1009,80018,70097,100
2021 47,100 31,300 12,200 19,100 109,800
2026 55,100 33,900 15,300 19,600 123,900
2031 64,200 36,600 19,300 20,300 140,400
Growth 32,600 13,40010,4003,10059,400
2006-31 103% 58% 117% 18% 74%
Source: Statistics Canada Census of Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Note: Population is total population including Census net under-coverage.
Appendix A provides details of the housing unit forecast for each community
including all ppu assumptions.
D.OVERALL GROWTH OUTLOOK FOR CLARINGTON IS SIMILAR TO 2009
Based on the analysis undertaken for this review and summarized above, the
following conclusions can be reached:
Claringtons population is projected to grow steadily to 2031 and at a rate
consistent with that anticipated in 2009. Most growth will continue to be
focused in the Municipalitys urban communities.
Household growth in Clarington will be slower than anticipated in 2009
23,000 households between 2006 and 2031 versus 23,800 households. Increased
fertility and longer life expectancy will lead to higher than anticipated
household sizes, which will reduce the growth in households and housing units.
Overall household size in the Municipality is forecast to decrease by 0.11 ppu
over the period, continuing a long-standing pattern of gradual decline, though
at a more moderate rate than forecast in 2009.
HEMSON
8
Population and household growth in Bowmanville and Newcastle is forecast to
be slightly lower than anticipated in 2009, with correspondingly higher growth
expected in Courtice and the rural areas. This reflects the pattern of recent
construction in the Municipality.
The updated population age structure forecast for the Municipality is presented
4
in Appendix B. The overall aging of the population in the Municipality is a
demographic trend that is typical of most Ontario communities (and much of
Canada). In Clarington, the effect of higher fertility rates will result in a greater
number of children in the population than was anticipated in 2009. These
trends could have the following implications for municipal servicing:
Demand for parks, recreation, library and other cultural services will likely
increase faster than the rate of overall population growth, with slightly
increased emphasis on youth programs and, especially in the 2020s,
programs for seniors.
Demand for fire services is likely to grow faster than the overall population
as the high-demand elderly age group grows. This will be especially true of
more mature neighbourhoods in Claringtons urban communities as well as
neighbourhoods experiencing adult lifestyle developments.
Demand for road infrastructure is unlikely to be affected by the forecast
change in population age structure, although an increase in the number of
seniors in Clarington may result in higher transit ridership during the later
part of the forecast period.
4
Note that the age structure applies only to the Census population as the age structure of the
un-enumerated population is unknown.
HEMSON
9
AppendixA
AppendixA
Housing Characteristics
2006 -2031
HEMSON
10
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
NUMBER OF UNITS AND SHARES OF CLARINGTON TOTAL HOUSING MARKET
2006 - 2031 BY COMMUNITY
Shares
BowmanvilleCourtice
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006 33%82%56%63%40%2006 27%12%38%25%27%
2011 36%88%57%64%42%2011 27%8%36%20%27%
2016 36%84%56%68%43%2016 28%11%35%17%27%
2021 37%76%57%67%44%2021 28%14%33%17%27%
2026 39%69%59%66%46%2026 27%17%30%17%26%
2031 40%64%61%65%47%2031 25%19%29%18%24%
NewcastleRural
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006 12%2%2%6%10%2006 28%5%3%6%23%
2011 10%1%3%10%9%2011 26%4%4%7%22%
2016 11%2%6%9%10%2016 25%3%3%6%20%
2021 12%8%8%10%11%2021 23%3%2%6%18%
2026 13%12%9%11%12%2026 21%2%2%6%16%
2031 15%16%9%12%14%2031 20%1%2%6%15%
Units
BowmanvilleCourtice
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006 7,178 2006 595765
444444444444444444444444A44444444444444444A4444A444444444444A4444444444444444A44444
2011 8,523 2011 75
444444444444444444444444A44444444444444444A4444A4444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444
2016 9,447 2016 601
444444444444444444444444A44444444444444444A4444A44444444444444444444A4444444444444A44444
2021 10,838 2021 698
44444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444444444444444444A44444444444A444444
2026 12,418 2026 904
44444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444444444444444444A44444444444A444444
2031 14,093 2031 1,141
44444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444444444444444444A44444444A444444
NewcastleRural
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006 2,497 2006 45
444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A444444444A44444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444
2011 2,470 2011 35
4444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A444444444A44444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444
2016 2,848 2016 35
44444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A444444444A44444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444
2021 3,434 2021 35
4444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A444444444A44444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444
2026 4,172 2026 35
4444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A444444444A44444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444
2031 5,148 2031 35
4444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A444444444A44444444444444444444444444444444444444444A4444A44444
HEMSON
11
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
NUMBER OF UNITS AND SHARES OF CLARINGTON TOTAL HOUSING MARKET GROWTH
2006 - 2031 BY COMMUNITY
Shares
BomanvilleCourtice
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006-11 59%-33%59%67%61%2006-11 28%89%25%-6%22%
2011-16 42%52%52%85%51%2011-16 35%33%32%5%29%
2016-21 48%50%61%65%52%2016-21 26%25%25%15%24%
2021-26 54%50%68%60%57%2021-26 15%25%20%20%18%
2026-31 52%50%70%60%56%2026-31 12%25%20%20%16%
NewcastleRural
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006-11-1%22%9%31%4%2006-11 14%22%7%8%13%
2011-16 17%15%16%5%15%2011-16 7%0%0%5%5%
2016-21 20%25%14%15%19%2016-21 7%0%0%5%5%
2021-26 25%25%12%15%21%2021-26 7%0%0%5%5%
2026-31 30%25%10%15%23%2026-31 7%0%0%5%4%
Units
BomanvilleCourtice
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006-112006-11
444444A4444444444444444444444444A44444444444444444A44444444444A44444444444A4444444444444444444444444A4444444444A444
2011-162011-16
444444444A44444444444444444444444A44444444444444444A44444444444A44444444444444444444444A444444444444444444A44444
2016-212016-21
444444A4444444444444A44444444444A44444444444444444A44444444444A44444444444444444444444A444444444444444444A44444
2021-262021-26
444444A4444444444444A44444444444A44444444444444444A44444444444A4444444444A44444444444A4444444444A444444444A444
2026-312026-31
444444A4444444444444A44444444444A44444444444444444A44444444444A4444444444A44444444444A4444444444A444444444A444
NewcastleRural
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006-112006-11
4444444444A4444444444444A444444444444444444444444A444444444A444444444A44444444444A44444444444444A44444444444444444444A444
2011-162011-16
444444444A44444444444444444444444A444444444444444444444A444444444A44444444444A4444444444A4444444444444444444A444
2016-212016-21
444444444A44444444444444444444444A444444444444444444444A444444444A44444444444A4444444444A4444444444444444444A444
2021-262021-26
444444444A44444444444A44444444444A44444444444444444A44444444444A44444444444A4444444444A4444444444444444444A444
2026-312026-31
444444444A44444444444A444444444444444444444444444444A44444444444A44444444444A4444444444A4444444444444444444A444
HEMSON
12
MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE
2006 - 2031 BY COMMUNITY
BowmanvilleCourtice
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006 3.022.822.562.012.81 2006 3.162.952.682.103.02
2011 2.962.872.571.892.76 2011 3.093.002.691.982.97
2016 2.932.842.561.862.70 2016 3.062.972.681.952.94
2021 2.902.822.541.852.67 2021 3.032.952.661.932.91
2026 2.882.802.521.842.65 2026 3.012.922.641.922.87
2031 2.882.792.521.842.64 2031 3.012.922.641.922.86
NewcastleRural
SinglesSemisRowsApts.All UnitsSinglesSemisRowsApts.All Units
2006 3.242.672.421.903.15 2006 2.672.652.401.882.65
2011 2.912.822.531.862.80 2011 2.672.592.321.702.63
2016 2.882.802.521.832.77 2016 2.642.562.311.682.60
2021 2.862.772.501.822.73 2021 2.622.542.291.672.58
2026 2.842.752.491.812.70 2026 2.602.522.281.662.55
2031 2.842.752.491.812.69 2031 2.602.522.281.662.55
HEMSON
13
AppendixB
AppendixB
Age/Sex Forecast By Community
2006 -2031
Note that the age structure applies only to the Census population as the
age structure of the un-enumerated population is unknown.
HEMSON
14
pality of Clarington
Munici
2006AgeStructure
2006 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
ВЉњ
44444444444A444444444444A444444444444A444444
0 - 4
БЎБВ
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
5 - 9
БЉБЍ
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
АЎАВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
АЉАЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЏЎЏВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЎЎЎВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЎЉЎЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЍЎЍВ
CĻƒğƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЌЎЌВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЌЉЌЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЋЎЋВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЋЉЋЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЊЎЊВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444 ЊЉЊЍ
75 - 79
ЎВ
44444444444A44444444444444444444444444A44444
80 - 84
ЉЍ
44444444444A44444444444444444444444444A44444
85-89
44444444444A44444444444444A44444444444444A444
ЎЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЎЉЉЋͲЉЉЉЋͲЎЉЉЌͲЉЉЉЌͲЎЉЉЍͲЉЉЉЍͲЎЉЉ
90+
4444444444444A4444444444444A44444444444444A444
Municipality of Clarington
2011AgeStructure
2011 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
ВЉњ
Total
444444A444444444444A444444444444A444444
БЎБВ
0 - 4
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
АЎАВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
АЉАЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЏЎЏВ
20 - 24 2,710
44444444A4444444444444A44444 ЏЉЏЍ
ЎЎЎВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЎЉЎЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЍЎЍВ
CĻƒğƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЌЎЌВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЌЉЌЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЋЎЋВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЋЉЋЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЊЎЊВ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЊЉЊЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЎВ
75 - 79
44444444444A44444444444444444444444444A44444
ЉЍ
80 - 84
44444444444A44444444444444444444444444A44444
85-89
ЎЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЎЉЉЋͲЉЉЉЋͲЎЉЉЌͲЉЉЉЌͲЎЉЉЍͲЉЉЉЍͲЎЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A44444444444444A444
90+
4444444444444A4444444444444A44444444444444A444
HEMSON
15
Municipality of Clarington
2016AgeStructure
2016 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
ВЉњ
44444444444A444444444444A444444444444A444444
0 - 4
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
АЉАЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЎЉЎЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
CĻƒğƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЍЉЍЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ağƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЌЉЌЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЋЉЋЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЊЉЊЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЉЍ
80 - 84
44444444444A44444444444444444444444444A44444
85-89
ЎЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЎЉЉЋͲЉЉЉЋͲЎЉЉЌͲЉЉЉЌͲЎЉЉЍͲЉЉЉЍͲЎЉЉЎͲЉЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A44444444444444A444
90+
44444444444A44444444444444A44444444444444A444
Municipality of Clarington
2021AgeStructure
2021 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 105,750
ВЉњ
444444A444444444444A444444
0 - 4
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
5 - 9 БЉБЍ
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
АЉАЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
20 - 24 4,740
44444444A4444444444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A44444444444A444444
ЎЉЎЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
CĻƒğƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЍЉЍЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ağƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЌЉЌЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЋЉЋЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЊЉЊЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЉЍ
80 - 84
44444444444444444444444A4444444444444A44444
85-89
ЊͲЉЉЉЋͲЉЉЉЌͲЉЉЉЍͲЉЉЉЎͲЉЉЉЏͲЉЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444444444444444A44444
90+
44444444444A44444444444444A44444444444444A444
Municipality of Clarington
2026AgeStructure
2026 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 119,370
ВЉњ
444444A444444444444A444444
0 - 4
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
АЉАЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЏЉЏЉЏЍЏЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A44444444444A444444
ЎЉЎЍ
444444444444444A44,44444444444A44,444444444A444,444
CĻƒğƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЍЉЍЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ağƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЌЉЌЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЋЉЋЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЊЉЊЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЉЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
85-89
ЊͲЉЉЉЋͲЉЉЉЌͲЉЉЉЍͲЉЉЉЎͲЉЉЉЏͲЉЉЉАͲЉЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444444444444444A44444
90+
44444444444A44444444444444A44444444444444A444
Municipality of Clarington
2031AgeStructure
2031 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 135,210
ВЉњ
444444A444444444444A444444
0 - 4
44444444A4444444444444A44444444444A444444
5 - 9 БЉБЍ
44444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
АЉАЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A44444444444A444444
ЎЉЎЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A44444444444A444444
CĻƒğƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A44444444444A444444
ЍЉЍЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ağƌĻ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЌЉЌЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
3,270
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЊЉЊЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
ЉЍ
444444444444444A4444444444444A4444444444444A44444
85-89
ЊͲЉЉЉЋͲЉЉЉЌͲЉЉЉЍͲЉЉЉЎͲЉЉЉЏͲЉЉЉАͲЉЉЉБͲЉЉЉ
44444444444444444444444A4444444444444A44444
90+
44444444444A44444444444444444444444444A44444
HEMSON
16
Bomanville
2006AgeStructure
2006 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total15,650 31,610
ВЉњ
4444444444444A444444
0 - 4 1,120 2,170
44444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 1,260 2,500
44444444A44444
10 - 141,360 2,650
44444444A44444
АЉАЍ
15 - 191,210 2,290
44444444A44444
20 - 24 890 1,820930
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 291,180 2,330
44444444A44444
30 - 341,290 2,580
ЎЉЎЉЎЍЎЍ
44444444A44444
35 - 391,270 2,670
CĻƒğƌĻCĻƒğƌĻ
44444444A44444
40 - 441,510 3,060
ЍЉЍЉЍЍЍЍ
0,044444444A44,0444,00
ağƌĻ
45 - 491,230 2,350
44444444444444444A44444
50 - 54 880 1,770890
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59 710 1,450740
60 - 64 540 1,100560
ЋЉЋЍ
65 - 69 350
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЊЉЊЍ
70 - 74 330
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 250
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 170
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 80
ЋЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊͲЍЉЉЊͲЏЉЉЊͲБЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 20
4444444444444A444444444444444A44
Bomanville
20112011AgeAgeStructureStructure
2011 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 17,160 34,970
ВЉњ
444444A444444
0 - 4 1,270 2,490
44444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 1,230 2,360
44444444A44444
10 - 141,280 2,560
44444444A44444
АЉАЍ
15 - 191,440 2,750
44444444A44444
20 - 241,040 2,010970
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 291,120 2,340
44444444A44444
30 - 341,360 2,780
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444A44444
35 - 391,330 2,700
CĻƒğƌĻ
44444444A44444
40 - 441,280 2,710
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444A44444
ağƌĻ
45 - 491,460 3,010
44444444A44444
50 - 541,200 2,370
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444A44444
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59 860 1,810950
60 - 64 720 ,,490
ЋЉЋЉЋЍЋЍ
60647207701490
444444444444444A
65 - 69540 590 1,130
ЊЉЊЍ
70 - 74360
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 300
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 210
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 130
ЋЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊͲЍЉЉЊͲЏЉЉЊͲБЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 30
44444444444A44444444444444A444
HEMSON
17
Bomanville
2016AgeStructure
2016 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total18,740 38,840
ВЉњ
4444444444444A444444
0 - 4 1,250 2,430
44444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 1,340 2,650
44444444A44444
10 - 141,290 2,490
44444444A44444
АЉАЍ
15 - 191,630 3,250
44444444A44444
20 - 241,670 3,320
44444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 291,210 2,500
44444444A44444
30 - 341,210 2,600
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444A44444
35 - 391,360 2,870
CĻƒğƌĻ
44444444A44444
40 - 441,330 2,760
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444A44444
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻağƌĻ
45 - 491,250 2,700
44444444A44444
,,,
50 - 541,400 2,940
ЌЉЌЉЌЍЌЍ
44444444444444444A44444
55 - 591,120 2,260
44444444A44444
60 - 64 790 1,730940
ЋЉЋЍ
65 - 69 660 1,410750
ЊЉЊЍ
70 - 74 490 1,070580
75 - 79 310
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 240
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 120
ЋЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊͲЍЉЉЊͲЏЉЉЊͲБЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 70
44444444444A44444444444444A444
Bomanville
2021AgeStructure
2021 Age Structure
g
MaleFemaleTotal
ВЉњВЉњ
Total 23 21,,690 45 ,,470 ,,160
Total216902347045160
0 - 41,410 2,750
44444444444444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 1,400 2,720
44444444A44444
10 - 141,520 2,980
АЉАЍ
44444444A44444
15 - 191,700 3,310
44444444A44444
20 - 242,050 4,260
ЏЉЏЍ
44444444A44444
25 - 292,120 4,380
44444444A44444
30 - 341,450 3,030
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444A44444
35 - 391,270 2,800
CĻƒğƌĻ
44444444A44444
40 - 441,440 3,070
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻ
44444444A44444
45 - 491,390 2,890
44444444A44444
50 - 541,250 2,700 ЌЉЌЍ
44444444A44444
55 - 591,320 2,810
44444444A44444
ЋЉЋЉЋЍЋЍ
60 - 641,030 2,130
44444444A44444
65 - 69 740 ,650
65697409101,650
444444444444444A
ЊЉЊЍ
70 - 74630 740 1,370
75 - 79450 550 1,000
ЉЍ
80 - 84260
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 170
ЎЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЎЉЉЋͲЉЉЉЋͲЎЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 90
44444444444A44444444444444A444
Bomanville
2026AgeStructure
2026 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 25,290 52,900
ВЉњ
444444A444444
0 - 4 1,800 3,510
44444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 1,590 3,090
44444444A44444
БЉБЍ
10 - 141,630 3,130
44444444A44444
АЉАЉАЍАЍ
15 - -19 1,930, 1,880, 3,810,
1519193018803810
20 - 242,170 4,480
44444444444444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 292,620 5,590
44444444A44444
30 - 342,410 5,030
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444A44444
35 - 391,530 3,270
CĻƒğƌĻ
44444444A44444
40 - 441,370 3,050
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444A44444
ağƌĻ
45 - 491,520 3,240
44444444A44444
50 - 541,390 2,890
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444A44444
55 - 591,160 2,550
44444444A44444
60 - 641,220 2,670
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444A44444
65 - 69970 2,040
44444444444444444444A44444
ЊЉЊЍ
70 - 74 710 1,610900
75 - 79 580 1,280700
ЉЉЍЍ
80 - 84 380
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85--89 180 260 440
ЎЉЉЎЉЉЊЉЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊЎЉЉЊͲЎЉЉЋЉЉЉЋͲЉЉЉЋЎЉЉЋͲЎЉЉЌЉЉЉЌͲЉЉЉЌͲЎЉЉЌЎЉЉ
8589180260440
90+130
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
Bomanville
2031AgeStructure
2031 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 29,430 61,650
ВЉњ
444444A444444
0 - 4 2,390 4,650
44444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 1,990 3,860
44444444A44444
10 - 141,820 3,500
44444444A44444
АЉАЍ
15 - 192,030 3,940
44444444A44444
20 - 242,390 4,970
44444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 292,730 5,790
44444444A44444
30 - 342,910 6,240
ЎЉЎЉЎЍЎЍ
44444444A44444
3539 - 2490, 2780, 5270,
3539249027805270
CƌCĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 441,640 3,530
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444444444A44444
ağƌĻ
45 - 491,450 3,220
44444444A44444
50 - 541,530 3,260
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444A44444
55 - 591,310 2,760
44444444A44444
60 - 641,070 2,420
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444A44444
65 - 691,160 2,570
44444444A44444
ЊЉЊЍ
70 - 74930 1,980
44444444444444444444A44444
75 - 79 660 1,510850
ЉЍ
80 - 84 490 1,110620
85-89 280
ЎЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЎЉЉЋͲЉЉЉЋͲЎЉЉЌͲЉЉЉЌͲЎЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 160
44444444444A44444444444444A444
HEMSON
18
Courtice
2006AgeStructure
2006 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total11,500 23,150
ВЉњ
4444444444444A444444
0 - 4 750 1,440690
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 890 1,770880
10 - 141,140 2,290
44444444A44444
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 980 1,900920
20 - 24 640 1,250610
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 590 1,180590
30 - 34 760 1,540780
ЎЉЎЉЎЍЎЍ
35 - 39930 2,000
44444444444444444444A44444 CĻƒğƌĻCĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 441,290 2,600
ЍЉЍЉЍЍЍЍ
0,9044444444A44,0444,00
ağƌĻ
45 - 491,060 2,080
44444444444444444A44444
50 - 54 730 1,430700
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59 580 1,170590
60 - 64 390
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
65 - 69 270
44444444444A44444444444444A444
70 - 74 220
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 140
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 90
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 40
ЋЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊͲЍЉЉ
4444444444444A4444444444444A444
90+ 10
4444444444444A444444444444444A44
Courtice
20112011AgeAgeStructureStructure
2011 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 11,905 24,195
ВЉњ
444444A444444
0 - 4 660 1,300640
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 830 1,640810
10 - 14 960 1,900940
АЉАЍ
15 - 191,160 2,260
44444444A44444
20 - 24 820 1,540720
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 620 1,290670
30 - 34 710 1,500790
ЎЉЎЍ
35 - 39 820 1,690870
CĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44900 2,020
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444444444444A44444
ağƌĻ
45 - 491,240 2,520
44444444A44444
50 - 541,040 2,040
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444A44444
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59 660 1,300640
60 - 64 510 ,,060
ЋЉЋЉЋЍЋЍ
60645105501060
444444444444444A
65 - 69370
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
70 - 74 230
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 160
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 130
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 60
ЋЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊͲЍЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 25
4444444444444A444444444444444A44
HEMSON
19
Courtice
2016AgeStructure
2016 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total13,250 27,150
ВЉњ
4444444444444A444444
0 - 4 760 1,480720
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 730 1,430700
10 - 14 900 1,770870
АЉАЍ
15 - 191,260 2,470
44444444A44444
20 - 241,400 2,790
44444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 980 1,960980
30 - 34 700 1,490790
ЎЉЎЍ
35 - 39 710 1,550840
CĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44 840 1,760920
ЍЉЍЍ
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻağƌĻ
45 - 49900 2,030
44444444444444444444A44444
,,
50 - 541,220 2,480
ЌЉЌЉЌЍЌЍ
44444444444444444A44444
55 - 59 980 1,950970
60 - 64 610 1,230620
ЋЉЋЍ
65 - 69 470 1,000530
70 - 74 340
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 200
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 130
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 80
ЋЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊͲЍЉЉЊͲЏЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 40
44444444444A44444444444444A444
Courtice
2021AgeStructure
2021 Age Structure
2021AgeStructure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 15 14,,730 30 ,,580 ,,310
ВЉњВЉњ
Total147301558030310
0 - 4890 840 1,730
БЉБЍ
5 - 9830 780 1,610
10 - 14810 770 1,580
АЉАЍ
15 - 191,080 2,130
44444444444444444A44444
20 - 241,450 2,920
44444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 291,600 3,260
44444444A44444
30 - 341,090 2,200
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444A44444
35 - 39 730 1,590860
CĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44 750 1,650900
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 860 1,810950
50 - 54890 2,020
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444444444444444A44444
55 - 591,170 2,400
44444444A44444
60 - 64 930 1,870940
ЋЉЋЉЋЍЋЍ
65 - 69 580 ,180
65695806001,180
444444444444444A
70 - 74440
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 310
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 170
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 90
ЋЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊͲЍЉЉЊͲЏЉЉЊͲБЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 60
44444444444A44444444444444A444
Courtice
2026AgeStructure
2026 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 15,880 32,700
ВЉњ
444444A444444
0 - 4 1,140 2,220
44444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 920 1,790870
БЉБЍ
10 - 14 870 1,680810
АЉАЉАЍАЍ
15 - -19 880 840 1,720,
15198808401720
20 - 241,160 2,330
44444444444444444A44444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 291,540 3,140
44444444A44444
30 - 341,640 3,360
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444A44444
35 - 391,100 2,230
CĻƒğƌĻ
44444444A44444
40 - 44 750 1,630880
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 760 1,670910
50 - 54 850 1,790940
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59870 1,980
44444444444444444444A44444
60 - 641,130 2,340
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444A44444
65 - 69 890 1,810920
70 - 74 540 1,120580
ЊЉЊЍ
75 - 79 400
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЉЍЍ
80 - 84 250
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85--89 120 160 280
8589120160280
ЋЉЉЋЉЉЍЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉБЉЉЊЉЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊЋЉЉЊЍЉЉЊͲЍЉЉЊЏЉЉЊͲЏЉЉЊБЉЉЊͲБЉЉЋЉЉЉЋͲЉЉЉ
90+70
4444444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
Courtice
2031AgeStructure
2031 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 17,190 35,330
ВЉњ
444444A444444
0 - 4 1,360 2,650
44444444A44444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 1,160 2,260
44444444A44444
10 - 14 950 1,840890
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 930 1,800870
20 - 24 950 1,890940
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 291,250 2,540
44444444A44444
30 - 341,590 3,240
ЎЉЎЉЎЍЎЍ
44444444A44444
3539 - 1650, 1740, 3390,
3539165017403390
CƌCĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 441,110 2,260
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444444444A44444
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 760 1,650890
50 - 54 750 1,660910
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59 830 1,760930
60 - 64840 1,930
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444444444444444A44444
65 - 691,090 2,270
44444444A44444
70 - 74 850 1,730880
ЊЉЊЍ
75 - 79 500 1,040540
ЉЍ
80 - 84 340
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 190
ЋЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊͲЍЉЉЊͲЏЉЉЊͲБЉЉЋͲЉЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 90
44444444444A44444444444444A444
HEMSON
20
Newcastle
2006AgeStructure
2006 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total3,720 7,460
ВЉњ
44444444444444444A44444
0 - 4 250
44444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 250
44444444444A44444444444444A444
10 - 14 310
44444444444A44444444444444A444
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 280
44444444444A44444444444444A444
20 - 24 170
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 160
44444444444A44444444444444A444
30 - 34 220
ЎЉЎЉЎЍЎЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
35 - 39 260
44444444444A44444444444444A444 CĻƒğƌĻCĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44 340
ЍЉЍЉЍЍЍЍ
0044444444444A444044444444444A4440
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 310
44444444444A44444444444444A444
50 - 54 240
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
55 - 59 210
44444444444A44444444444444A444
60 - 64 170
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
65 - 69 140
44444444444A44444444444444A444
70 - 74 140
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 130
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 90
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 40
ЎЉЊЉЉЊЎЉЋЉЉЋЎЉЌЉЉЌЎЉЍЉЉ
4444444444444A4444444444444A444
90+ 10
4444444444444A444444444444444A44
Newcastle
20112011AgeAgeStructureStructure
2011 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 3,980 8,105
ВЉњ
44444444A44444
0 - 4 240
44444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 280
44444444444A44444444444444A444
10 - 14 250
44444444444A44444444444444A444
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 270
44444444444A44444444444444A444
20 - 24 220
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 180
44444444444A44444444444444A444
30 - 34 220
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
35 - 39 260
CĻƒğƌĻ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
40 - 44 260
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 320
44444444444A44444444444444A444
50 - 54 320
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59 260
44444444444A44444444444444A444
60 - 64 240
ЋЉЋЉЋЍЋЍ
6064240260500
44444444444A44444444444444A444
65 - 69200
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
70 - 74 170
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 130
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 90
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 50
ЎЉЊЉЉЊЎЉЋЉЉЋЎЉЌЉЉЌЎЉЍЉЉ
4444444444444A4444444444444A444
90+ 20
4444444444444A444444444444444A44
HEMSON
21
Newcastle
2016AgeStructure
2016 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total4,570 9,460
ВЉњ
44444444444444444A44444
0 - 4 240
44444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 280
44444444444A44444444444444A444
10 - 14 320
44444444444A44444444444444A444
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 430
44444444444A44444444444444A444
20 - 24 420
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 320
44444444444A44444444444444A444
30 - 34 230
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
35 - 39 220
44444444444A44444444444444A444 CĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44 270
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻağƌĻ
45 - 49 260
44444444444A44444444444444A444
50 - 54 310
ЌЉЌЉЌЍЌЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
55 - 59 290
44444444444A44444444444444A444
60 - 64 230
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
65 - 69 220
44444444444A44444444444444A444
70 - 74 190
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 150
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 100
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 60
ЎЉЊЉЉЊЎЉЋЉЉЋЎЉЌЉЉЌЎЉЍЉЉЍЎЉЎЉЉ
4444444444444A4444444444444A444
90+ 30
4444444444444A444444444444444A44
Newcastle
2021AgeStructure
2021 Age Structure
2021AgeStructure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 6 5,,650 11 ,,170 ,,820
ВЉњВЉњ
Total5650617011820
0 - 4340
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 310
44444444444A44444444444444A444
10 - 14 360
44444444444A44444444444444A444
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 510
44444444444A44444444444444A444
20 - 24 620 1,280660
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 620 1,340720
30 - 34 430
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
35 - 39 260
44444444444A44444444444444A444 CĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44 260
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 300
44444444444A44444444444444A444
50 - 54 260
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
55 - 59 280
44444444444A44444444444444A444
60 - 64 260
ЋЉЋЉЋЍЋЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
65 - 69 210
6569210250460
44444444444A44444444444444A444
70 - 74210
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 170
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 130
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 70
ЊЉЉЋЉЉЌЉЉЍЉЉЎЉЉЏЉЉАЉЉБЉЉ
4444444444444A4444444444444A444
90+ 50
4444444444444A4444444444444A444
Newcastle
2026AgeStructure
2026 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 7,020 14,800
ВЉњ
44444444A44444
0 - 4 550 1,070520
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 420
44444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
10 - 14 410
44444444444A44444444444444A444
АЉАЉАЍАЍ
15 - -19 540 500 1,040,
15195405001040
20 - 24710 760 1,470
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29860 990 1,850
30 - 34750 870 1,620
ЎЉЎЍ
35 - 39460 570 1,030
CĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44300
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 300
44444444444A44444444444444A444
50 - 54 310
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
55 - 59 230
44444444444A44444444444444A444
60 - 64 250
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
65 - 69 240
44444444444A44444444444444A444
70 - 74 210
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 190
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЉЍЍ
80 - 84 140
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85--89 90 120 210
858990120210
ЋЉЉЋЉЉЍЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉБЉЉЊЉЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊЋЉЉЊͲЋЉЉ
90+60
444444444444444444444444444A4444444444444A444
Newcastle
2031AgeStructure
2031 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 8,790 18,640
ВЉњ
44444444A44444
0 - 4 810 1,580770
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 640 1,240600
10 - 14 530 1,010480
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 610 1,190580
20 - 24 770 1,620850
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29990 2,130
44444444444444444444A44444
30 - 341,010 2,180
ЎЉЎЉЎЍЎЍ
44444444A44444
3539 - 790 960 1750,
35397909601750
CƌCĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44520 650 1,170
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻ
45 - 49350
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
50 - 54 310
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
55 - 59 270
44444444444A44444444444444A444
60 - 64 190
ЋЉЋЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
65 - 69 230
44444444444A44444444444444A444
70 - 74 230
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 190
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 170
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 110
ЋЉЉЍЉЉЏЉЉБЉЉЊͲЉЉЉЊͲЋЉЉЊͲЍЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 70
44444444444A44444444444444A444
HEMSON
22
Rural
2006AgeStructure
2006 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total8,960 17,770
ВЉњ
44444444444444444A44444
0 - 4 380
44444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 530 1,070540
10 - 14 750 1,450700
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 780 1,460680
20 - 24 530 1,030500
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 330
44444444444A44444444444444A444
30 - 34 380
ЎЉЎЉЎЍЎЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
35 - 39 510 1,070560
CĻƒğƌĻCĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44 850 1,740890
ЍЉЍЉЍЍЍЍ
0090,0
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 840 1,630790
50 - 54 730 1,430700
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59 650 1,260610
60 - 64 540 1,070530
ЋЉЋЍ
65 - 69 390
44444444444A44444444444444A444
70 - 74 310
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 260
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 130
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 50
ЊЉЉЋЉЉЌЉЉЍЉЉЎЉЉЏЉЉАЉЉБЉЉВЉЉЊͲЉЉЉ
4444444444444A4444444444444A444
90+ 20
4444444444444A444444444444444A44
Rural
20112011AgeAgeStructureStructure
2011 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 9,235 17,860
ВЉњ
44444444A44444
0 - 4 330
44444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 430
44444444444A44444444444444A444
10 - 14 550 1,140590
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 800 1,490690
20 - 24 630 1,170540
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 390
44444444444A44444444444444A444
30 - 34 320
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
35 - 39 420
CĻƒğƌĻ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
40 - 44 570 1,140570
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 920 1,820900
50 - 54 910 1,720810
ЌЉЌЍ
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59 760 1,460700
60 - 64 660 ,,250
ЋЉЋЉЋЍЋЍ
60646605901250
444444444444444A
65 - 69550 500 1,050
70 - 74400
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 300
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 200
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 80
ЊЉЉЋЉЉЌЉЉЍЉЉЎЉЉЏЉЉАЉЉБЉЉВЉЉЊͲЉЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 15
4444444444444A444444444444444A44
HEMSON
23
Rural
2016AgeStructure
2016 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total9,280 18,070
ВЉњ
44444444444444444A44444
0 - 4 340
44444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 340
44444444444A44444444444444A444
10 - 14 440
44444444444A44444444444444A444
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 590 1,220630
20 - 24 830 1,560730
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 650 1,230580
30 - 34 400
ЎЉЎЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
35 - 39 310
44444444444A44444444444444A444 CĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44 420
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻağƌĻ
45 - 49 570 1,140570
,
50 - 54 900 1,790890
ЌЉЌЉЌЍЌЍ
55 - 59 880 1,670790
60 - 64 730 1,410680
ЋЉЋЍ
65 - 69 620 1,190570
70 - 74 500
ЊЉЊЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
75 - 79 340
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 240
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 130
ЊЉЉЋЉЉЌЉЉЍЉЉЎЉЉЏЉЉАЉЉБЉЉВЉЉЊͲЉЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 50
4444444444444A4444444444444A444
Rural
2021AgeStructure
2021 Age Structure
2021AgeStructure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 9 9,,410 18 ,,050 ,,460
ВЉњВЉњ
Total9410905018460
0 - 4410
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 350
44444444444A44444444444444A444
10 - 14 350
44444444444A44444444444444A444
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 470
44444444444A44444444444444A444
20 - 24 620 1,290670
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 860 1,630770
30 - 34 670 1,270600
ЎЉЎЍ
35 - 39 400
44444444444A44444444444444A444 CĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44 320
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 420
44444444444A44444444444444A444
50 - 54 560 1,130570
ЌЉЌЍ
55 - 59 880 1,760880
60 - 64 850 1,630780
ЋЉЋЉЋЍЋЍ
65 - 69 690 ,350
65696906601,350
444444444444444A
70 - 74580 540 1,120
ЊЉЊЍ
75 - 79450
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
ЉЍ
80 - 84 280
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 160
ЊЉЉЋЉЉЌЉЉЍЉЉЎЉЉЏЉЉАЉЉБЉЉВЉЉЊͲЉЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 90
44444444444A44444444444444A444
Rural
2026AgeStructure
2026 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 9,630 18,970
ВЉњ
44444444A44444
0 - 4 540 1,050510
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 420
44444444444A44444444444444A444
БЉБЍ
10 - 14 360
44444444444A44444444444444A444
АЉАЉАЍАЍ
15 - -19 370 330 700
1519370330700
20 - 24490
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 650 1,360710
30 - 34 880 1,670790
ЎЉЎЍ
35 - 39 670 1,280610
CĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44 410
ЍЉЍЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ağƌĻ
45 - 49 320
44444444444A44444444444444A444
50 - 54 420
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
55 - 59 550 1,110560
60 - 64 860 1,720860
ЋЉЋЍ
65 - 69 820 1,570750
70 - 74 650 1,290640
ЊЉЊЍ
75 - 79 520 1,020500
ЉЉЍЍ
80 - 84 370
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85--89 200 250 450
8589200250450
ЊЉЉЊЉЉЋЉЉЋЉЉЌЉЉЌЉЉЍЉЉЍЉЉЎЉЉЎЉЉЏЉЉЏЉЉАЉЉАЉЉБЉЉБЉЉВЉЉВЉЉЊЉЉЉЊͲЉЉЉ
90+130
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
Rural
2031AgeStructure
2031 Age Structure
MaleFemaleTotal
Total 9,900 19,590
ВЉњ
44444444A44444
0 - 4 630 1,220590
БЉБЍ
5 - 9 550 1,070520
10 - 14 440
44444444444A44444444444444A444
АЉАЍ
15 - 19 390
44444444444A44444444444444A444
20 - 24 400
44444444444A44444444444444A444
ЏЉЏЍ
25 - 29 530 1,020490
30 - 34 670 1,400730
ЎЉЎЉЎЍЎЍ
3539 - 880 800 1680,
35398808001680
CƌCĻƒğƌĻ
40 - 44670 620 1,290
ЍЉЍЍ
ağƌĻ
45 - 49410
44444444444444444444444A44444444444444A444
50 - 54 320
ЌЉЌЍ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
55 - 59 410
44444444444A44444444444444A444
60 - 64 530 1,080550
ЋЉЋЍ
65 - 69 830 1,670840
70 - 74 780 1,510730
ЊЉЊЍ
75 - 79 590 1,180590
ЉЍ
80 - 84 440
44444444444A44444444444444A444
85-89 270
ЊЉЉЋЉЉЌЉЉЍЉЉЎЉЉЏЉЉАЉЉБЉЉВЉЉЊͲЉЉЉ
44444444444A44444444444444A444
90+ 160
44444444444A44444444444444A444
HEMSON