HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD-82-89DN: POPULA
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TOWN OF NEWCASTLE
REPORT File#
Res. C!' P' 4 122-
By -Law #
MEETING: General Purpose and Administration Committee
DATE: MONDAY, MARCH 201, 1989
REPORT #: PD -82 -89 FILE #:
SUB,JECT: POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
FILE: PLN 9.1
RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration
Committee recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PD -82 -89 be received; and
2. THAT the Region of Durham be advised that the Town of Newcastle
considers that the rate of growth in Durham will be greater than that
forecasted in the "Experimental Subprovincial Population Projects 1986
- 2011".
1. BACKGROUND:
1.1 The Ministry of Treasury and Economics has completed two documents
relating to population projections for Ontario. The first document is
a Demographic Bulletin which presents population projections for the
province as a whole to 2011, based on the 1986 census count.
1.2 The second document is entitled "Experimental Subprovincial Population
Projections for Ontario 1986 - 20111 ". This is a
consultation paper which summarizes the Ministry's preliminary
population projections for all regions, counties and districts.
552 •••2
REPORT NO.: PD -82 -89 PAGE 2
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1.3 The Region has circulated these documents at the request of the
Ministry. The Province is requesting comments on the Experimental
Subprovincial Projection from all area municipalities, the health
council and school boards within the Region of Durham. The Regional
Planning Department is consolidating all comments to forward on to the
Ministry of Treasury and Economics.
2. THE DEMOGRAPHIC BULLETIN
2.1 The Demographic Bulletin provides revised population projections to the
year 2111. The forecast is updated on the basis of new information
available from the 1896 Census and a revised view about the strength of
net migration. Five different scenarios are provided on the basis of
"high ", "medium" and "low" assuumptions about future trends in
fertility, morality and net migration.
2.2 The Reference Scenario combines the three medium or "most likely"
assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration. The highlights
of the reference scenario are as follows:
- The Population of Ontario is projected to grow from 9.1 million in
1986 to almost 11.9 million by 2111, an increase of 30%.
- The annual growth rate population will fall from 1.7 percent
annually to less than 1.0 percent after 1996.
- The number of births will rise and fall as the baby boom generation
passes through prime childbearing years. By 2111, the children of
the baby - boomers will reach the prime ages of family formation.
- life expectancy will increase by approximately 5 years by 2011.
...3
5D` 3
REPORT NO.: PD® -82 ®89 PAGE 3
® Net migration will account for 56 per cent of the total population
increase between 1986 ®1991. Net migration over the subsequent five
years will account for 47 per cent of the total population increase.
Growth in the population aged 45 ®64 will be dramatic as the baby
boom generation starts turning 45 in 1991. This group will account
for 28 per cent of the total population in 2011.
® In 2011, nearly one in every 6 Ontarians will be over 65. The over
75 population will more than double from 391,01001 in 1986 to 874,000
in 2011.
2.3 The most volatile component of the population projections is net
migration. It should be noted that this is comprised of both
interprovincial and international migration. It is stongly influenced
not only by immigration policy but by the relative strength of the
economies in various parts of Canada. The strong Ontario economy has
attracted many people from across Canada in recent years.
3. EXPERIMENTAL SUBPROVINCIAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
3.1 The Experimental Subprovincial Population Projection is prepared for
consultation purposes. These preliminary figures are provided for all
regions, counties and districts with a view to finalizing the figures
as the "official" population projections of the Province.
The Subprovincial Population Projections are based on the Provincial
Forecast disaggregated into regional or county projections on the basis
of local fertility and mortality assumptions and determining shares of
net migration. In essence, it is a top -down approach wherein the total
population growth for the Province is determined and then distributed
throughout the Province.
...4
REPORT NO.: PD -82 -89
PAGE 4
3.2 The Subprovincial Population Projections are not built -up from local
Official Plans or local projections and it does not make any assumptions
about infrastructure placement or provincial policies relating to
development. Indeed, the purpose of the scenarios about population
growth is to provide input as to infrastructure requirements. It is for
this reason that these figures are important to municipalities.
3.3 The Subprovincial projections are experimental and in particular,
require further refinement within the Greater Toronto Area. It should
be noted that the Provincial projections indicate a much higher rate of
population growth for Metropolitan Toronto than previously considered.
This seems to indicate a bias on the part of the Province for the
intensification of Metro Toronto as opposed to the development of the
fringe areas like Durham Region.
3.4 The Region's most recent forecast contained in the 1989 Residential
Servicing and Financing Study projects a much higher rate of growth in
the short term than that proposed in the "Experimental Subprovincial
Projection ". By 1991, the Region estimates a population of 409,560,
almost 30,000 greater than the Ontario projection. The Regional figure
is based on development activity and the recent population growth in the
Region whereas Ontario projection is based on pre -1986 trends. The
more recent growth patterns in the Greater Toronto Area would support
a higher rate of growth for Durham than anticipated in Ontario Sub-
provincial projection. Moreover, it does not seem to account for the
more severe servicing constraints in some areas such as York Region.
3.5 Regional staff have not completed the long term forecast for Durham
Region. Based on the revised overall Ontario projection, it is
anticipated that there would be a higher long term population for the
year 2011 than the Experimental Subprovincial population of 579,350.
...5
555
REPORT NO.: PD -82 -89
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4 CONCLUSIONS:
PAGE 5
4.1 On the basis of our experience in the Town of Newcastle and discussions
with Regional Staff, it is our opinion that a more optimistic forecast
for population growth should be allocated to Durham Region. There will
be a continuing preference for the development of the Toronto fringe as
opposed to massive intensification of Metro Toronto. To meet this
demand, the proper infrastructure resources need to be allocated.
Respectfully submitted,
f
Franklin Wu, M.C.I.P.
Director of Planning & Development
DC *FW *cc
*Attach.
March 101, 1987
W
Recommended for presentation
to the Committee
Lawrence . otseff
Chief Adm n's rative Officer