HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD-20-96THE CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
DN: LAND- INV.GPA REPORT
Gi�f'11
Meeting: General Purpose and Administration Committee File # ILL—LILLS
Date:
Monday, February 5, 1996 Res. #( "�
Report #
Subject:
GREATER TORONTO AREA RESIDENTIAL LAND INVENTORY SURVEY 1995
FILE: PLN 9.7
Recommendations:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration
Committee recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PD -20 -96 be received for information.
1. Purpose
11 The report presents the highlights of the 1995 Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
Residential Land Inventory Survey Final Report results, which was received in
December of 1995.
2. Background
2.1 The GTA Residential Land Inventory Survey was initiated by the Office of the
Provincial Facilitator in January of 1993. The Survey was initiated to "get a good
understanding of the state of the market" with regard to residential development.
2.2 The survey is conducted annually and is a cooperative effort by the Area and
Regional Municipalities within the GTA, the Canada Mortgage and Housing
Corporation and the Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing.
Information on residential applications and building permit applications for the
previous year is gathered by the staff at the local municipality in January and
February. This information is forwarded to the Region for compilation into a
regional database, which is in turn forwarded to the province.
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REPORT NO. PD -20 -96 PAGE 2
2.3 The 1995 Final Report is the second year such a report has been prepared. The
survey provides a consistent and comprehensive GTA wide approach to gathering
information on housing supply for 1994. This information can, in turn, be used
by municipalities, the Province and development industry to monitor and analyze
housing supply.
2.4 In order to avoid discrepancies between Municipalities, definitions for different unit
types were provided by the Ministry to all area municipalities. Two definitions
which require clarification are single family dwelling units and rowhouse units.
Single family:
For the purposes of this survey, single family dwelling units include
dwelling units which are linked below grade. Staff typically lump this
housing form with the semi - detached units based on the Municipality's
zoning requirements.
Rowhouse:
Only includes townhouse or quadruplex units which are street oriented with
individual access to the street. Other forms of townhouse developments
which have a private road or are stacked townhouses (Other Multiples) are
included in the apartments category.
3. Survey Highlights
3.1 The report provides a GTA wide housing outlook giving consideration to such
issues as employment, affordability, migration and household formation. The
report discusses housing supply based on lots in various stages of development
applications approval process. Three absorption scenarios are identified to
determine how long the current supply is expected to last.
3.2 The three demand scenarios are as follows:
• Low Absorption - based on the average actual demand during
1993 and 1994 ....3
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REPORT NO. PD -20 -96 PAGE 3
Medium Absorption - this scenario inflates the low scenario by 50%
High Absorption - is based on population growth forecasts
prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd and the
Coopers & Lybrand Consulting Group for the
Office of the Greater Toronto Area. (The
province has adopted this scenario as the
regional growth rates for planning in the GTA)
The report notes that the scenarios are not intended to be seen as forecasts of
actual housing demand, but merely three possible outcomes for future housing
demand.
3.3 GTA Summary
A review of the total inventory for the entire GTA identifies a potential housing
supply of 217,912 units as of January 1, 1995 in the various stages of the
approval. The housing mix consists of the following:
Singles
65,720
Semi - detached
9,202
Rowhouses
29,184
Apartment units
113,806
The 52% apartment units equalled
over 113,000 units, 75% of this
supply is concentrated in Metro
and Peel Region. Although
apartment units made up the
largest part of the supply, single
GTA Housing Supply
119rowhs.iuse ngles (30.2 %)
apartments
(52.2 %)
semi (4.2 %)
(13.4 %)
detached dwelling units
represented the greatest proportion of housing starts in 1994 at 59 %.
W
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REPORT NO. PD -20 -96 PAGE 4
Based on the three demand scenarios detailed above the duration of the overall
housing supply in the GTA is estimated to be 5 to 11 years.
3.4 Durham Summary
Durham has a potential housing supply of 39,166 units as of January 1, 1995.
This represents approximately 18 % of the total GTA housing supply. The
housing mix for the Region has more emphasis on the single detached dwellings,
while the semi - detached and rowhouse units are similar to GTA figures:
Singles 17,663
Semi - detached 2,510
Rowhouses 6,708
Apartment units 12,285
Durham's supply is similar to the
trend in the balance of the GTA
with singles accounting for 61% of
all housing starts over the past five
years. The 31.4% apartment units
is equal to over 12,200 units. This
included 1,990 Other Multiples.
Durham Region Housing SuPPIY
apartments (31.4%)
rowhou se III 1-
Housing supply for single family dwelling units varies from 3 to 9 years in high to
low scenario respectively. Semi - detached units have the lowest supply at 1.4
years in a high scenario. Overall there is an estimated 4.5 to 12 year supply of
housing for Durham Region between the high and low scenario.
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REPORT NO. PD -20 -96 PAGE 5
3.5 Clarington Summary
As of January 1, 1995, the Municipality of Clarington has a potential housing
supply of 6939 units. This represents 17.7% of the Durham Region supply and
3% of the GTA total. The Municipality's housing mix is somewhat similar to that
of the Region, although the single family base is more dominant and the other
categories are proportionately lower:
Singles 4,391
Semi - detached 80
Row - houses 989
Apartment units 1,479
The singles category accounted for
79.1% of the total housing starts
for the year ending January 1,
1995. Apartment units, which
provided the second highest
supply at 1148 units included 277
units described earlier as Other
525
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REPORT NO. PD -20 -96 PAGE 6
Multiples. There were no starts in this category in 1994. Semi - detached units
accounted for only 2.8 %, while rowhouses made up the remaining 18.1% of all
housing starts.
The estimated duration of overall housing supply in the Municipality varies from
3.8% in a high absorption scenario to 9.5 years in low scenario. Single detached
dwellings represent the largest supply of units as of January 1, 1995 (4391). This
number of units would be absorbed in a time frame of 3 to 15.7 years in a high
to low scenario respectively.
3.6 Complete copy of the Greater Toronto Area Residential Land Inventory Report
Survey is available in the Planning Department for review.
Respectfully submitted,
�l
Franklin Wu, M.C.I.P., R.P.P.,
Director of Planning
and Development
CP *FW *cc
Attach.
January 29, 1996
Reviewed by,
W. 4. Stockwell
Chief Administrative
Officer
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