HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD-70-97THE CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON
DN: CENSUS.GPA
REPORT
Meeting: General Purpose and Administration Committee File #
Date: Monday, May 5, 1997 c
Res.
Report #:
Subject:
PD-70-97
CENSUS
-•- • • ..,
Recommendations:
By -law #
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration
Committee recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PD -70 -97 be received for information.
1. Overview
The initial release of the 1996 census information contains data on population and
dwelling units by municipality and census metropolitan areas. The key findings are:
• on a percentage basis, Clarington is the fifth fastest growing municipality in
Canada with a population of 50,000 or greater;
• Clarington's population in May 1996 was 60,615;
• Clarington grew by an average of 2,200 persons annually between 1991 and
1996;
• While Clarington and Whitby recorded the highest growth rates in Durham,
Oshawa had the slowest growth rate;
• household sizes are not declining as anticipated;
• Clarington's share of the Region's growth is higher than anticipated but this
was due to slower growth rates in other parts of the Region;
Durham is the slowest growing Region of the three Regions surrounding
Metropolitan Toronto.
87
REPORT NO. PD -70 -97 PAGE 2
2. Growth Rate
The initial release of census information confirms that Clarington is continuing to
experience rapid growth. For municipalities with a population greater than 50,000,
Clarington is the fifth fastest growing Municipality in Canada.
Table 1
Canadian Municipalities Greater than 50,000 persons with Greatest
Percentage Population Growth: 1991 and 1996 Censuses
Rank
Municipality
Population
1991
1996
% Change
1.
Richmond Hill Ont.
80,142
101,725
26.9
2.
Barrie, Ont.
62,728
79,191
26.2
3.
Newmarket, Ont.
45,474
57,125
25.6
4.
Surrey, B.C.
245,173
304,477
24.2
5.
Clarington, Ont,
49,479
60,615
22.5
.Z)UUiuC. OLdUbLlUb UU[IdUd: iyyn Uensus
3. Clarington Population in Durham Region
Population growth in Durham slowed relative to the rapid growth of the late 80's,
the previous Census period. Between 1986 and 1991, the Region grew by almost
80,000; this slowed to 50,000 between 1991 and 1996.
In absolute terms, Clarington grew by 11,136 persons between 1991 and 1996,
an average of 2,200 persons annually. Whitby was the only municipality with a
greater increase in population - 12,513. Clarington, Pickering and Whitby
accounted for almost 70 percent of population growth in Durham. As expected,
the three northern municipalities grew the least. However, the City of Oshawa
had the slowest rate of growth in Durham amounting to only 3.9 percent over 5
years. In fact, in the 10 year period between 1986 and 1996 Oshawa grew by
less than 11,000 persons. In this same period, Clarington has grown by almost
27,000 persons.
REPORT NO. PD -70 -97 PAGE 3
4.
Table 2
Durham Region and Area Municipalities
Census Population and Growth
1986, 1991 and 1996 Censuses
Municipality
1986
1901*
1996*
1991 -1996
Increase
1991 - 1996
% Change
Ajax
36,550
57,350
64,430
7080
12.3
Brock
10,003
11,057
11,705
648
5.9
Clarington
34,073
49,479
60,615
11,136
22.5
Oshawa
123,651
129,344
134,364
5,020
3.9
Pickering
48,959
68,631
78,989
10,358
15.1
Scugog
15,229
17,836
18,837
1,331
5.6
Uxbridge
11,895
14,092
15,882
1,790
12.7
Whitby
45,819
61,281
73,794
12,513
20.4
Durham
326,175
409,070
458,616
49,546
12.1
oource: 1 &66, 1 && i ana i yyn census
*Does not include Census undercount.
Shares of Regional Population Growth
Clarington accounted for over 22 percent of the growth of Durham Region.
Whitby and Pickering also had shares exceeding 20 percent. Only 10 percent of
the Region's growth was in Oshawa. The northern municipality accounted for 7
percent.
Chart 1
Shares of Durham Region
Population Growth
1991 -1996
Whi +h„
2E
Uxbridge
4%
Scugog
2%
Pic -...t,
21%
Ajax
1 do/
low
Oshawa
10%
rocs(
1%
Clarington
22%
REPORT NO. PD -70 -97 PAGE 4
In the past 30 years, Clarington's share of the Region's growth has varied
significantly. In the late 70's, it comprised less than 1 percent of the Region's
growth. However, for the past 10 years, Clarington has accounted for
approximately 20 percent of the Region's population growth.
0
L
U)
u
0
0
C
0
V
a
24.0
22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Chart 2
Clarington Growth as Percentage Share
of Durham Region Growth: 1966 - 1996
22.5
18.6
15.7 REEN
\NES,
5.6
4.3
N0\07,\
0.8
1966 -1971 1 1976 -1981 1986 -1991
19/7 —]W b 1981 -1986 1991 -1996
Year
4. Dwelling Units
A total of 3747 new dwellings were constructed in Clarington between 1991 and
1996. This is an average of 750 dwelling units annually. Of the 20,127 dwelling
units in the Municipality, approximately 46% were constructed in the last 10 years.
Table 3
Occupied Dwelling Units
Municipality
1981
1986
1991
1996
Clarington
Durham
9,885
90,050
10,895
100,055
16,380
136,140
20,127
154,310
690
REPORT NO. PD -70 -97 PAGE 5
5. Household Size
Household information was not part of this Census release. However, generalized
conclusions can be drawn from the information on population and occupied
private dwelling units. Household size is not declining as fast as anticipated. In
1996, the average household size stood at 3.01 persons /household, virtually
unchanged from 1991. The Region had projected a decline to 2.95 persons per
dwelling unit. This may be due to the tough economic climate which has required
children to stay with their parents longer or people to "double -up" in their
accommodation. It could also be due to the relative attractiveness of Clarington
for young families.
Table 4
Average Persons Per Occupied Dwelling Unit
1981 1986
1991
1996
3.26
3.13
3.02
3.01
Source: uiarington running tx ueveiopment as calcuiaLeu HUM oLauauUa
Canada based on population per occupied private dwelling unit.
6. Durham in the GTA
Despite economic difficulties, the GTA has continued to grow rapidly.
Approximately 400,000 people were added to a population totalling 4.63 million
in 1996. Durham's share of this growth was 12.6 percent. Hemson Consulting
Ltd. reports that Metro Toronto grew somewhat more than anticipated in their
work undertaken for the Office of the Greater Toronto Area in 1993. However, the
Regions still accounted for 72 percent of the population growth and 48.5 percent
of the total GTA population. The bulk of this growth continues to be north and
west of Toronto. With the exception of Halton, Durham is the slowest growing
area in the GTA.
6 9 1
REPORT NO. PD -70 -97 PAGE 6
Table 5
Population of Population Growth in the GTA
1991 - 1996
,jounce: i ne hemson hepori, Hprii i i, i ya t
7. Conclusion
The initial release of census information gives a quick overview of key
demographic factors. More detailed analysis will have to await further information.
One caution to be noted in the interpretation of the above figures is that the
"census undercount" has not been calculated. This refers to an estimate of the
population and dwelling units missed in the census. For comparison purposes,
the 1991 figures are also reported without adjustment for the undercount.
Clarington appears to be poised for continuing strong growth in the housing
market. The Census figures would appear to validate Clarington's emerging role
as an eastern anchor for the Region.
Respectfully submitted,
y
Franklin Wu, M.C.I.P., R.P.P.,
Director of Planning
and Development
DC *FW *cc
Attach.
April 29, 1997
Reviewed by,
W. H. Stockwell
Chief Administrative
Officer
6 91
1996
Population
1991 -96
Population Growth
Share of
Population Growth
Metro
2,385,000
110,000
27.9 %
Peel
853,000
120,000
30.5%
York
592,000
87,000
22.2%
Durham
459,000
50,000
12.6%
Halton
340,000
27,000
6.8 0
GTA
4,629,000
393,000
100 0
,jounce: i ne hemson hepori, Hprii i i, i ya t
7. Conclusion
The initial release of census information gives a quick overview of key
demographic factors. More detailed analysis will have to await further information.
One caution to be noted in the interpretation of the above figures is that the
"census undercount" has not been calculated. This refers to an estimate of the
population and dwelling units missed in the census. For comparison purposes,
the 1991 figures are also reported without adjustment for the undercount.
Clarington appears to be poised for continuing strong growth in the housing
market. The Census figures would appear to validate Clarington's emerging role
as an eastern anchor for the Region.
Respectfully submitted,
y
Franklin Wu, M.C.I.P., R.P.P.,
Director of Planning
and Development
DC *FW *cc
Attach.
April 29, 1997
Reviewed by,
W. H. Stockwell
Chief Administrative
Officer
6 91