HomeMy WebLinkAboutPSD-069-07
Clw:._n
REPORT
PLANNING SERVICES
Meeting: GENERAL PURPOSE AND ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE
Date: Tuesday, May 22, 2007 ~e=:olt.chon =P-=f1PII-3h5-O'l
Report #: PSD-069-07
File #: PLN 9.4
By-law #:
Subject:
2006 GROWTH TRENDS REVIEW
RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is respectfully recommended that the General Purpose and Administration Committee
recommend to Council the following:
1. THAT Report PSD-069-07 be received for information.
Reviewed by:
ik
nklin Wu,
Chief Administrative Officer
~
JS/FLlsn
14 May 2007
CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF ClARINGTON
40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L 1C 3A6 T (905)623-3379 F (905)623-0830
REPORT NO.: PSD-069-07
PAGE 2
1.0 PURPOSE
This report summarizes the key findings of the 2006 Growth Trends Review.
2.0 BACKGROUND
2.1 The Planning Services Department conducts on-going monitoring activities to assess
the effectiveness of the Municipality of Clarington's Official Plan, as well as other
municipal and Region of Durham policies. These monitoring activities also assist in
identifying emerging issues and trends within the Municipality of Clarington. Building
permit activity, population growth and other such related data are often used as an
indicator of housing and employment activity within Clarington, level of local investment,
and economic performance; this and other information has been compiled into the 2006
Growth Trends Review.
2.2 The data collected and analyzed in the Review are based on building permit and related
housing market information that is collected from a variety of difference sources. These
sources include:
· Municipality of Clarington's own-source data;
· Durham Region;
· Statistics Canada;
· Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation;
· Royal Bank of Canada's Econoscope; and
· The Bank of Canada.
3.0 KEY FINDINGS OF THE 2006 GROWTH TRENDS REVIEW
3.1 The 2006 Growth Trends Review (Attachment 1) examines Clarington's growth activity
and compares its performance against other area municipalities within Durham Region.
In addition, the Review examines past, current and forecasted housing market activity
and provides a short-term outlook on future development activity for Clarington and
Durham Region.
3.2 Growth Activity in Clarinaton
The total value of all building permits issued in Clarington increased by 15.57% from
$203.22 million in 2005 to $234.86 million in 2006. This has been the Municipality's
highest year ever in terms of the total value of building permits issued.
The increase in total building permit value for Clarington can be attributed to the
increase in the overall residential and non-residential building permit values. The
residential building permit value increased from $141.85 million in 2005 to $149.99
million in 2006, and the non-residential building permit value increased from $61.37
million in 2005 to $84.88 million in 2006.
REPORT NO.: PSD-069-07
PAGE 3
3.3 Growth Activity in Durham Reoion
Durham Region experienced a decrease of 3.75% in total building permit value from
$1.56 billion in 2005 to $1.50 billion in 2006. The $1.50 billion in 2006 was the third
highest total building permit value in the Region's history, with $1.56 billion in 2005 and
the highest of $1.70 billion in 2003. Since 2000, the total value of building permits
issued in Durham Region has averaged about $1.31 billion.
The decline in total building permit value in 2006 was primarily attributed to the
decreased investment in the residential sector ($1.07 billion in 2006 compared to $1.11
billion in 2005). The non-residential sector experienced only a small increase to
$497.30 million in 2006 from $446.50 million in the previous year of 2005.
3.4 Clarinoton's Share of Growth Activity within Durham Reoion
In 2006, Clarington's share of the total building permit value in Durham Region
experienced an increase from 13.17% in 2005 to 15.16% in 2006 (representing a 1.99%
change from 2005 to 2006). Clarington had the second highest gain in the overall
share, second to Ajax (2.10%). While Whitby experienced the largest decease in the
total building permit value share of 5.35%.
In Durham Region as a whole, building permits were issued for a total of 5,244 new
residential units, a decrease from the 5,783 new residential units in 2005. Clarington's
share of the total number of new residential units in 2006 was 16.34% (857 new
residential units), an increase from the previous year's share of 13.88% (802 new
residential units) in 2005. Despite maintaining a strong absolute number of new
residential units being produced in 2006, stronger years in terms of net residential unit
production from both Ajax (1,822 new residential units), Whitby (1,037 new residential
units), and Oshawa (1,027 new residential units) contributed to a smaller share for
Clarington within the context of Durham Region.
The strong year in non-residential building permit value for 2006 increased Clarington's
share of the total non-residential building permit value within Durham Region from
14.51% in 2005 to 17.72% in 2006. Clarington had the highest share increase of 3.20%
followed by Whitby (1.05%). Oshawa experienced the largest share decrease of 4.67%.
3.5 Housino Market Indicators
The average one, three and five-year mortgage rates were higher in 2006 (6.3%, 6.5%,
and 6.7% respectively) in comparison to 2005 (5.1 %, 5.6% and 6.0% respectively).
CMHC has reported that they expect mortgage rates to remain low, only increasing 25-
75 basis points in the next two to three quarters before they start to climb higher.
The average price of a completed and absorbed single-detached dwelling in the
Oshawa CMA was $345,900 in 2006, representing an increase of 12.1 % from $308,611
in 2005. In particular, the average price of a newly constructed single-detached
dwelling in Clarington increased by 13.3% from approximately $261,800 in 2005 to
REPORT NO.: PSD-069-07
PAGE 4
$296,700 in 2006. Despite these increases in price, CMHC states that homebuyers still
favour the Oshawa CMA for its relatively affordable house prices compared to that of
Toronto and other GTA area municipalities.
3.6 Short-Term Outlook
For 2007, CMHC is forecasting that housing starts will decrease in both the Oshawa
CMA (-9.8%) and the Toronto CMA (-4.0%). The forecast for Ontario is similar with
lower new home starts due to the increased selection in the resale market, the
increasing prices of new homes, and capacity restraints. RBC Financial Group is
forecasting a 13.0% decrease in the number of housing starts, from 230,000 units in
2006 to 200,000 units in 2007.
The CMHC housing forecasts show that there will be a decrease in residential building
permit activity in Durham Region; however, a healthy demand for new homes will still
exist in 2007. This is supported by the "solid economic and demographic fundamentals
such as low mortgage rates, positive job creation, rising wages, and respectable
migration."
Overall, the non-residential building permit activity in Clarington has increased its share
within Durham Region by 3.20%. In 2007, Clarington expects to see continued
increases in the non-residential building permit value due to upcoming non-residential
building projects.
Durham Region also experienced positive growth in non-residential building permit
activity in 2006. The value of non-residential building permits in 2006 at $479 million
was the second highest level achieved in Durham's history (after 2003 - $650 million).
At the provincial level, Statistics Canada reported the value of non-residential building
permits decreased by 2.2% from $9.20 billion in 2005 to $9.00 billion in 2006. At a
national level, the RBC Financial Group is forecasting a 7.5% increase in business
investment and non-residential structures. It is expected that non-residential permit
activity will remain at respectable levels in both Clarington and Durham Region through
2007.
3.7 Short-Term Population & Household Forecasts
Clarington estimated its population for 2006 to be 78,340, only a 520 person difference
from the Statistics Canada 2006 census count of 77,820. Durham Region's short-term
population forecast estimated the population would be 601,500 in 2006. There was a
40,242 person difference between this estimate and the Statistics Canada estimate of
561,258. The Region has always had aggressive estimates that need to be tempered
with other projections.
Clarington estimated 27,120 households in the Municipality for 2006. A 633 household
difference from the Statistics Canada 2006 census count of 27,753 households.
Durham Region's short-term population forecast estimated there would be 199,840
households in the Region by 2006. Statistics Canada estimated 202,155 households in
Durham Region, a difference of 2,315 households.
REPORT NO.: PSD-069-07
PAGE 5
Clarington's estimate has 2.88 people per household. Statistics Canada 2006 census
results show that the number is closer to 2.8 people per household, which matches the
trends predicted by Clarington's Development Charges Background Study. Household
sizes are decreasing in Clarington, which is a reflection of the older population that is
attracted to Clarington.
The Development Charges Background Study indicates Clarington's population is
expected to grow to approximately 80,500 by the end of 2007 and reach approximately
89,500 by the end of 2011.
The number of households in Clarington is expected to grow to approximately 28,000 by
the end of 2007 and reach approximately 31,800 by 2011. These forecasts were taken
from Clarington's 2005 Development Charges Background Study and Durham's 2006
Region Profile.
Attachments:
Attachment 1 - 2006 Growth Trends Review
Attachment 1
To Report PSD-069-07
2006 GROWTH
TRENDS REVIEW
PLANNING SERVICES
DEPARTMENT
Cl&:-!lJgron
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Figures
..............................................................................................
Introduction
..............................................................................................
1
Purpose of the Growth Trends Review............................................. 1
Da ta Sou rces .......................................................................................... . 1
Contact I nforma tion ........................................ ......... ............................. 1
Overa II G rowth Trends ............................................................................... 2
Total Building Permit Value in Clarington ...................................... 2
Total Building Permit Value in Durham Region .............................. 3
Share of Total Building Permit Value within Durham .................... 4
Residential Growth
5
Total Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington .................. 5
New Residential Unit Production in Clarington .............................. 6
Share of New Residential Unit Production in Durham Region ...... 7
Housi ng Market Indicators ...................... ............................................. 8
Short-Term Population Forecast ......................................................... 9
Non-Residential Growth
11
Total Non-Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington ......... 11
Share of Non-Residential Building Permit Value in Durham ....... 12
Non-Residential Floor Space Production in Clarington ................ 12
Synopsis and Short Term Outlook
13
Residential Growth Trends ............. .................................................. 13
Non-Residential Growth Trends ......................................................... 13
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Total Building Permit Value in Clarington, 1993-2006
2. Total Building Permit Value by Residential/Non-Residential Sector in
Clarington, 2000-2006
3. Total Building Permit Value in Durham Region, 2000-2006
4. Total Building Permit Values within Durham Region, 2005 & 2006
5. Total Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington, 1993-2006
6. Clarington's Share of Total Residential Building Permit Value in Durham Region,
2005- 2006
7. New Residential Units Approved for Construction in Clarington, 1994-2006
8. New Residential Units by Location in Clarington, 2005-2006
9. New Residential Units by Type in Clarington, 2005-2006
10. New Residential Unit Production by Area Municipality in Durham Region, 2005-
2006
11. Average Monthly Bank Interest Rates, 2005-2006
12. Housing Starts, Completions and Absorptions in the Oshawa CMA, 2005-2006
13. Short-Term Population & Household Estimates for Clarington and Durham
Region, 2006-2010
14. Non-Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington, 2005-2006
1.0 - INTRODUCTION
1.1 Purpose of the Growth Trends Review
The Planning Services Department conducts on-going monitoring activities to
assess the effectiveness of the Municipality of Clarington's Official Plan, as well
as other municipal and Region of Durham policies. These monitoring activities
also assist in identifying emerging issues and trends within the Municipality of
Clarington. Building permit activity and other such related data are often used
as an indicator of housing and employment activity within Clarington, the level
of local investment, and economic performance.
1.2 Data Sources
The data collected and analyzed in this Review are based on building permit
and related housing market information that is collected from a variety of
different sources. These sources include:
· Municipality of Clarington's own-source data;
· Durham Region;
· Statistics Canada;
· Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC);
· Royal Bank of Canada's Econoscope; and
· The Bank of Canada
1 .3 Contact Information
Should you have any questions, comments, and/or suggestions concerning this
Growth Trends Review, please contact the Planning Services Department by
telephone at (905) 623-3379 or by email at planning@clarington.net.
- 1 -
2.0 - OVERALL GROWTH TRENDS
2.1 Total Building Permit Value in Clarington
The total value of all building permits issued in Clarington increased by 15.57%
from $203.22 million in 2005 to $234.86 million in 2006. This increase has
resulted in the Municipality enjoying its highest year ever in terms of the total
value of all building permits issued. Since 19931, the total value of building
permits issued in Clarington has averaged about $125.19 million. Figure 1.0
below summarizes this information.
Figure 1.0 - Total Building Permit Value in Clarington, 1993-2006
250,000,000
50,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
~
100,000,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
I_Total Building Permit Value - -Average I
As Figure 2.0 (next page) illustrates, the increase in total building permit value
for Clarington can be attributed to the increase in the overall residential and
non-residential building permit values. The residential building permit value
increased from $141.85 million in 2005 to $149.99 million in 2006, and the non-
residential building permit value increased significantly from $61.37 million in
2005 to $84.88 million in 2006.
1 Prior to 1993 the Municipality of Clarington was named the Town of Newcastle. This annual building
permit review does not include data from before 1993.
- 2 -
180,000,000
160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
e
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
Figure 2.0 - Total Building Penn it Value by Residential/Non-Residential Sector in Clarington, 2000-2006
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
I_Residential IlINon-Residentiall
2.2 Total Building Permit Value in Durham Region
Durham Region experienced a decrease of 3.75% in total building permit value
from $1.56 billion in 2005 to $1.50 billion in 2006. The $1.50 billion in 2006
was the third highest total building permit value in the Region's history, with
$1.56 billion in 2005 and the highest of $1.70 billion in 2003 (see Figure 3.0 on
following page). Since 2000, the total value of building permits issued in
Durham Region has averaged about $1.31 billion.
This decline in total building permit value in 2006 was primarily attributed to
the decreased investment in the residential sector ($1.07 billion in 2006
compared to $1.11 billion in 2005). The non-residential sector experienced a
small increase from $446.50 million in 2005 to $497.30 million 2006.
- 3 -
Figure 3.0 - Total Building Permit Value in Durham Region, 2000-2006
1,800,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
~
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
200,000,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
I_Total Building Permit Value I
2.3 Share of Total Building Permit Value within Durham
In 2006, Clarington's share of the total building permit value in Durham Region
experienced an increase from 13.17% in 2005 to 15.16% in 2006 (1.99% change
from 2005 to 2006). Clarington had the second highest gain in the overall
share, second to Ajax (2.10%). While Whitby experienced the largest decrease
in the total building permit value share at -5.35%.
Figure 4.0 - Total Building Permit Values Within Durham Region, 2005 8: 2006
Ajax 430.00 27.59% 459.70 29.69% 2.10%
Brock 15.70 1.01% 11.90 0.77% -0.24%
Clarington 205.30 13.17% 234.70 15.16% 1.99%
Os hawa 348.90 22.39% 364.20 23.53% 1.14%
Pickering 76.50 4.91% 76.80 4.96% 0.05%
Scugog 38.50 2.47% 29.80 1.92% -0.55%
Uxbridge 58.00 3.72% 70.80 4.57% 0.85%
Wh itby 385.60 24.74% 300.20 19.39% -5.35%
Total 1558.50 100.00% 1548.10 100.00% N/A
- 4 -
3.0 - RESIDENTIAL GROWTH
3.1 Total Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington
In 2006, the total value of residential building permits issued in Clarington
totaled $149.99 mill ion, which to date is the second highest value of residential
building permits issued by the Municipality in one calendar year (see Figure 5.0
below). The Municipality has averaged $90.59 million in total value of
residential building permits annually between 1993 and 2006.
180,000,000
160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
~
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
Figure 5.0. Total Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington, 1993.2006
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
I_Total Residential Building Permit Value I
As Figure 6.0 on the next page shows, Clarington's total residential building
permit value ranked fourth in all of Durham Region, behind Ajax ($376.70
million), Oshawa ($222.70 million) and Whitby ($194.40 million) in 2006.
Clarington's total residential building permit value increased from $141.85
million in 2005 to $149.99 million in 2006.
- 5 -
Figure 6.0 - Clarington's Share of Total Residential Building Permit Value in Durham Region, 2005.2006
Aax 357.00 32.07% 376.70 35.24% 3.17%
Brock 7.40 0.66% 6.10 0.57% -0.09%
Clarin ton 141.85 12.74% 149.99 14.03% 1.29%
Oshawa 196.10 17.62% 222.70 20.83% 3.22%
Pickerin 39.40 3.54% 43.70 4.09% 0.55%
Scu 0 33.50 3.01% 20.90 1.96% -1.05%
Uxbrid e 46.10 4.14% 54.40 5.09% 0.95%
Whitb 291.80 26.21% 194.40 18.19% -8.03%
Total 1113.15 100.00% 1068.89 100.00% N/A
3.2 New Residential Unit Production in Clarington
In 2006, residential building permits were issued for 861 new units in
Clarington, up from 802 in the previous year of 2005 (see Figure 7.0 below).
Historically, the number of new residential units approved for construction has
averaged 728.38 units per year since 1994. The current level of new
residential unit production occurring in Clarington exceeds this historical
average by approximately 132.62 new residential units annually.
Figure 7.0 - New Residential Units Approved for Construction in Clarington, 1994-2006
1,200
1,000
8
'll
i 800
c
8
.2
I 600
<l
~
c
::>
~ 400
'Ii
..
200
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1_# of New Units Approved I
- 6 -
The urban centres of Bowmanville, Courtice and Newcastle continue to make
the strongest contributions in the total number of new residential units
approved for construction, representing 95.12% of Clarington' s new residential
units approved for construction in 2006 (see Figure 8.0 below). In particular,
Bowmanville experienced a 32.45% increase in the number of new residential
units approved for construction in 2006, while Coutice's share dropped from
30.05% to 14.63% and Newcastle's share dropped from 25.19% to 9.76% (also
see Figure 8.0 below).
Figure 8.0 - New Residential Units by Location in Clarington, 2004-2005
Bowmanville 307 38.28% 609 70.73% 32.45%
Courtice 241 30.05% 126 14.63% -15.42%
Newcastle 202 25.19% 84 9.76% -15.43%
Wilmot Creek 15 1.87% 15 1.74% -0.13%
Orono 1 0.12% 1 0.12% -0.01 %
Darlington 14 1.75% 7 0.81% -0.93%
Clarke 13 1.62% 12 1.39% -0.23%
Hamlets 9 1.12% 7 0.81% -0.31%
Totals 802 100.00% 861 100.00% N/A
3.3 Share of New Residential Unit Production in Durham Region
In 2006, Durham Region municipalities issued building permits for a total of
5,244 new residential units, a decrease from the 5,783 new residential units in
2005. Clarington's share of the total number of new residential units in 2006
was 16.34% (857 new residential units), an increase from the previous year's
share of 13.88% (802 new residential units) in 2005. Despite maintaining a
strong absolute number of new residential units being produced in 2006,
stronger years in terms of net residential unit production from Ajax (1,822 new
residential units), Whitby (1,037 new residential units), and Oshawa (1,027 new
residential units) contributed to a smaller share for Clarington within the
context of Durham Region.
Figure 9.0 - New Residential Units in Clarington by Type, 2005-2006
Sin Ie Detached
Semi-Detached
Townhouse
A artment
Total
45.14%
35.66%
7.36%
11.85%
100.00%
48.20%
11.50%
8.36%
31.94%
100.00%
- 7 -
Figure 10.0 - New Residential Unit Production by Area Municipality In Durham Region, 2005-2006
2500
2000
:I:! .;~.\
c
:) 1500
]
c )1':'"
.IJ ~ -~~~
.~
&!
j ;-
1000
'S , ..~,{' ..L.
.. I ,
...""
~~t&r ~: .~
500 ';t.~{ i" "
_\I~~~ '
",- J.: I J.',,~ ",,,, >i(
;~:r~,~ ~. .,..
'f~:'~
Ajax Vl'hitby
C 2005 1939 1531
fl2006 1822 1037
3.4 Housing Market Indicators
The average one, three, and five year mortgage rates were higher in 2006 at
6.3%, 6.5%, and 6.7% respectively in comparison to 2005 at 5.1%, 5.6%, and
6.0% respectively (see Figure 11.0 below). The bank rate began an upward
trend in September 2005 that continued until May 2006, when it reached 4.50%.
The bank rate remained at 4.50% for the remainder of 2006. CMHC has
reported that they expect mortgage rates to remain low, only increasing 25-75
basis points in the next two to three quarters before they start to climb higher.
Figure 11.0 - Average Monthly Bank Interest Rates, 2005-2006
8.00
6,00
7.00
5.00
1 Year
......-3 Year
--- 5 Year
_Bank Rate
3.00
~
i 4.00
~
2.00
1.00
0,00
I ~ 1! '2 >- l ~ 10 ! .8 j ! I ~ 1! l ;;- ~ ~ ! ~ ! i
~ .'t ~ g. j ::l; g.
~ ~ ::l; 0 ~
::l; ..: ~ 8 is ::l; ..: ~ 8 ~
~ 11: 0 8 ~ 15. 0 8
ell z ell z
2005 2006
MonthlYear
- 8 -
The number of housing starts was 5,585 in the Oshawa CMA for 2006,
representing a marginal increase from 5,488 in 2005. Similarly, the number of
completions increased to 5,071 in 2006 from 4,973 in 2005. Housing absorptions
also increased to 5,034 in 2006 from 4,895 in 2005, as newly completed homes
were sold or rented. The average price of a completed and absorbed single-
detached dwelling in the Oshawa CMA was $345,900 in 2006, representing an
increase of 12.1% from $308,611 in 2005. In particular, the average price of a
newly constructed single-detached dwelling in Clarington increased by 13.3%
from $261,800 in 2005 to $296,700 in 2006. Despite these increases in price,
CMHC states that homebuyers still favour the Oshawa CMA for its relatively
affordable house prices compared to that of Toronto.
Figure 12.0 - Housing Starts, Completions and Absorptions in the Oshawa CMA, 2005-2006
5800
11lI2005 .20061
3.5 Short-Term Population Forecast
Clarington estimated its population for 2006 to be 78,340, only a 520 person
difference from the Statistics Canada 2006 census count of 77,820. Durham
Region's short-term population forecast estimated the population would be
601,500 in 2006. There was a 40,242 person difference between this estimate
and the Statistics Canada estimate of 561,258. The Region has always had
aggressive estimates that need to be tempered with other projections.
Clarington estimated 27,120 households in the Municipality for 2006. A 633
household difference from the Statistics Canada 2006 census count of 27,753
households. Durham Region's short-term population forecast estimated there
would be 199,840 households in the Region by 2006. Statistics Canada
estimated 202,155 households in Durham Region, a difference of 2,315
households.
- 9 -
Clarington's estimate has 2.88 people per household. Statistics Canada 2006
census results show that the number is closer to 2.8 people per household,
which matches the trends predicted by Clarington's Development Charges
Background Study. Household sizes are decreasing in Clarington, which is a
reflection of the older population that is attracted to Clarington
The 2006 Region Profile indicates that Durham's population is expected to
reach approximately 612,000 by the end of 2007 and approximately 657,000 by
the end of 2011. This represents a growth rate of 1.4% annually. For the same
period, the Development Charges Background Summary indicates that
Clarington's population is expected to grow to approximately 80,500 by the end
of 2007 (13.15% share) and reach approximately 89,500 by the end of 2011
(13.60% share).
Similarly, Durham's households are expected to reach approximately 205,000
by the end of 2007 and approximately 231,500 by the end of 2011. The number
of households in Clarington is expected to grow to approximately 28,000 by the
end of 2007 (13.66% share) and reach approximately 31,800 by 2011 (13.73%
share). Figure 13.0 below summarizes this section. These forecasts were
taken from Clarington's 2005 Development Charges Background Study and
Durham's 2006 Region Profile.
Figure 13.0 - Short-Term Population & Household Estimates for Clarington and Durham Region, 2007-2011
2007 80,440 28,000
2008 82,590 28,900
2009 84,800 29,830
2010 87,070 30,790
2011 89,400 657,310 13.60% 31,790 231,480
Note: Clarington's statistics were obtained from Clarington's 2005 Development Charges Background Study and
Durham's statistics were obtained from Durham's 2006 Region Profile.
- 10-
4.0 - NON-RESIDENTIAL GROWTH
4.1 Total Non-Residential Building Permit Value in Clarington
The value of non-residential building permits issued in Clarington during 2006
was $84.88 million, an increase of 38.30% from the previous year of 2005 at
$61.37 million. This overall increase in the non-residential building permit
value in 2006 was due to a very strong year in government construction that
reached $16.91 million in 2006, compared to $0.47 million in 2005. Industrial
construction also experienced an increase in construction activity with a total
of $45.59 million in building permits being issued in 2006, compared to $34.57
million in 2005.
Figure 14.0 - Non-Residential Building Permit Vaiue in Clarington, 2005-2006
$50,000,00000
[J2005
.2006
$45,000,00000
$40,000,00000
$35,000,00000
$30,000,00000
$25,000,00000
$20,000,00000
$15,000,00000
$10,000,00000
$5,000,000.00
$000
Industrial
Govemment
Commercial
Type of Non-Residential ConstNctlon
Institutional
Agricultural
The following list highlights the major non-residential building projects
reported in 2006:
· OPG warehouse in Clarington ($35.0 million); and
· New community centre in Clarington ($15.0 million)
- 11 -
4.2 Share of Non-Residential Building Permit Value in Durham
The strong year in non-residential building permit value for 2006 increased
Clarington's share of the total non-residential building permit value within
Durham Region from 14.51% in 2005 to 17.72% in 2006. Clarington had the
highest increase of 3.20% followed by Whitby (1.05%). Oshawa experienced the
largest share decrease at -4.67%.
4.3 Non-Residential Floor Space Production in Clarington
Clarington's production of non-residential floor space decreased -30.55% from
539,700 square feet being added in 2005, to only 374,800 square feet being
added in 2006. Of the larger area municipalities in Durham, Pickering (_
35.70%) and Whitby (-13.42%) also experienced a decline in the production of
new non-residential floor space between 2005 and 2006. On the other hand,
Ajax (+182.14%), and Oshawa (+16.31%) experienced growth between 2005 and
2006 in the production of new non-residential floor space.
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"
5.0 - SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
5.1 Residential Building Permit Activity
Overall, the pace of residential building permit activity in Clarington increased
in 2006, while Durham Region experienced a decrease of 3.88% in residential
building permit value between 2005 and 2006. For 2006 Clarington has
maintained a strong share of all residential building permit activity within
Durham Region of 14.02%. It has the fourth largest share behind Ajax (35.25%),
Oshawa (20.84%), and Whitby (18.19%).
For 2007, CMHC is forecasting that housing starts will decrease in both the
Oshawa CMA (9.8%) and the Toronto CMA (4.0%). CMHC suggests that the
similar forecast of lower new home starts for Ontario is due to the increased
selection in the resale market, the increasing prices of new homes and capacity
restraints. At a national level, the RBC Financial Group is forecasting a 13.0%
decrease in the number of housing starts, from 230,000 units in 2006 to
200,000 units in 2007. For 2007, the RBC Financial Group is also forecasting a
1.5% decrease in business investments in residential construction.
The CMBC housing forecasts show that there will be a decrease in residential
building permit activity in Durham Region; however, a healthy demand for new
homes with still exist in 2007. This is supported by the "solid economic and
demographic fundamentals such as low mortgage rates, positive job creation,
rising wages and respectable migration."
5.2 Non-Residential Building Permit Activity
Overall, the non-residential building permit activity in Clarington has increased
its share within Durham Region by 3.20%. In 2007, Clarington expects to see
continued increases in the non-residential building permit value due to
upcoming non-residential building projects.
Durham Region also experienced positive growth in non-residential building
permit activity in 2006. The value of non-residential building permits in 2006
at $479 million was the second highest level achieved in Durham's history
(after 2003 - $650 million).
At the provincial level, Statistics Canada reported the value of non-residential
building permits decreased by 2.2% from $9.20 billion in 2005 to $9.00 billion in
2006. At a national level, the RBC Financial Group is forecasting a 7.5%
increase in business investment and non-residential structures. It is expected
that non-residential permit activity will remain at respectable levels in both
Clarington and Durham Region through 2007.
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