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HomeMy WebLinkAbout07/15/2005 (Special)1 � (Leading the way II NOTE CHANGE OF VENUE REVISED AGENDA SPECIAL COUNCIL MEETING DATE: FRIDAY, JULY 15, 2005 ' TIME: 10:30 a.m. PLACE: CLARINGTON BEECH CENTRE ' 26 BEECH AVENUE BOWMANVILLE ONTARIO PRAYERS 1 CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON 40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L1C 3A6 T (905) 623 -3379 ROLL CALL ' DISCLOSURES OF PECUNIARY INTEREST ' PRESENTATION ' The Honourable John Godfrey, Minister of State (infrastructure and Communities) — New Deal for Cities and Communities ' PUBLIC MEETING A public meeting is being held to consider the passage of the by -laws to stop up and close portions of the following unopened road allowances: 1. between Lots 28 and 29, Concession 3 in the former Township of Clarke, as shown on IPart 2 of Registered Plan 40R -23364 in the former Township of Clarke 2. Kilpatrick Road, Lot 27, Concession 7 in the former Township of Clarke ' Council shall hear any person, or their Counsel, Solicitor or Agent, who claims that their land will be prejudicially affected by this by -law. 1 CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON 40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOWMANVILLE, ONTARIO L1C 3A6 T (905) 623 -3379 Council Agenda - 2 - July 15, 2005 PRESENTATION Doug Annand — urbanMetrics Inc. — Retail Market Analysis DELEGATIONS a) Robert Hann Re: Bowmanville West Main Central Area, Official Plan Amendment No. 43 and AYT Corporation Application b) Bryce Jordan Re: Bowmanville West Main Central Area, Official Plan Amendment No. 43 and AYT Corporation Application c) Brent Clarkson Re: Bowmanville West Main Central Area, Official Plan Amendment No. 43 and AYT Corporation Application d) Ira Kagan Re: Commercial Policy Review, AYT Corporation Application, Halloway Holdings Application e) Roslyn Houser Re: Bowmanville West Main Central Area f) Larry Regan Re: Bowmanville West Main Central Area g) Mario Fatica Re: Bowmanville West Main Central Area g) Otto Provenzano Re: Bowmanville West Main Central Area h) Stan Stein Re: Official Plan Amendment No. 43 and No. 44 i) Mark Frayne Re: AYT Corporation Application j) Tenzin Gyaltsan, Newcastle BIA Re: Bowmanville West Main Central Area k) Ron Hooper, Bowmanville BIA Re: Bowmanville West Main Central Area COMMUNICATIONS Correspondence For Direction D — 1 Eugene Dupuis — Rezoning Application by AYT Corporation D — 2 Robert Hann, President, Valiant Property Management — Home Depot Application Council Agenda - 3 - July 15, 2005 REPORT Confidential Report ENG -26 -05 — Property Matter (Distributed Under Separate Cover) UNFINISHED BUSINESS Addendum #1 to Report PSD- 077 -05 — Commercial Policy Review — Amendment 43 to the Clarington Official Plan (To be Distributed Under Separate Cover) 2. Addendum #2 to Report PSD- 078 -05 — Bowmanville West Main Central Area Secondary Plan Review Amendment 44 to the Clarington Official Plan and Related Applications by Halloway Holdings Limited and West Diamond Properties Inc. /Players Business Park Limited (To be Distributed Under Separate Cover) 3. Addendum to Report PSD- 096 -05 — Commercial Policy Review: General Amendment to Zoning By -law 84 -63 and the Rezoning of Certain Lands in the Bowmanville West Town Centre (To be Distributed Under Separate Cover) 4. Addendum to Report PSD- 097 -05 — Revised Official Plan Amendment and Rezoning Applications to Permit Retail Commercial, Large Format Retail and Hotel Uses — AYT Corporation (To be Distributed Under Separate Cover) BY -LAWS BY -LAW TO APPROVE ALL ACTIONS OF COUNCIL ADJOURNMENT ' SUMMARY OF CORRESPONDENCE JULY 15, 2005 CORRESPONDENCE FOR DIRECTION D - 1 Eugene Dupuis expressing objections to the rezoning application by AYT Corporation for land on Bennett Road. He states the following three reasons for encouraging Council to refuse this application: 1. the retail proposal by AYT does not meet criteria for development of this land 2. it does not fit the Planning Department's vision for the gateway to Clarington, which should define what is unique and outstanding about our community 3. it would result in the absolute destruction of a unique and valuable treed greenspace, few of which will remain in the town's boundaries 25 years from now. Big box retailers are sure to come as soon as population density reaches a certain threshold, regardless of where they have to locate. This highly visible gateway should be protected and zoned to attract industry/ development that wouldn't otherwise invest here. (Motion to advise of actions taken) D-2 Robert Hann, President, Valiant Property Management writing to dispel incorrect information that has been provided. All of the Demonstration Plans drawn by the Town Consultants are flawed and are not achievable. The bottom line is that Uptown Avenue cannot be projected through the site in a diagonal curvilinear route and still leave sufficient room for the Home Depot. However, the same effect has been achieved in their submitted design. Mr. Hann highlights some of the problems with the demo plans provided just prior to the June 27 Council meeting. He states that Uptown Avenue is not needed and, even if the analysis and peer review are wrong, Uptown Avenue can be built on the existing Town owned Right of Way. Mr. Hann encourages Council to vote to allow that the residents want —their own local Home Depot. (Motion to advise of actions taken) I I 1 REVISED SUMMARY OF BY -LAWS JULY 15, 2005 BY -LAWS 2005 -157 being a by -law to authorize the execution of a Road Widening Purchase Agreement between Mr. & Mrs. Smyth of 307 Scugog Street, Bowmanville, Ontario and the Municipality of Clarington (Approved by Council June 27, 2005) LJ I 11 11 1 I 2005 -158 being a by -law to stop up and close as a public highway Part 2 on Plan 40R- 23364, unopened road allowance (Approved by Council February 16, 2004) 2005 -159 being a by -law to stop up and close as a public highway Part 1 and Part 2 on Plan 40R- 23536, unopened road allowance (Kilpatrick Road) and to authorize the conveyance of Part 1 on Plan 40R- 23536 to Richard and Mary-Lou Brydson and to authorize the conveyance of Part 2 on Plan 40R -23536 to Edward Wallis 1 (Approved by Council March 25, 2005) 2005 -160 being a by -law to authorize a contract between the Corporation of 1 the Municipality of Clarington and Kraco Carpentry Services, Bowmanville, Ontario, to enter into agreement for the Newcastle Memorial Arena Canteen Renovations (Approved by Council June 27, 2005) LJ I 11 11 1 I r Clar�ngtan REPORT Lead ng y PLANNING SERVICES Meeting: SPECIAL COUNCIL Date: Friday July 15, 2005 1 ADDENDUM # 2 to Report #: PSD- 078 -05 File #: PLN 38.4.1; By -law #: ' COPA 2002 -002; COPA 2002 -009 Subject: BOWMANVILLE WEST MAIN CENTRAL AREA SECONDARY PLAN REVIEW AMENDMENT 44 TO THE CLARINGTON OFFICIAL PLAN AND RELATED APPLICATIONS BY HALLOWAY HOLDINGS LIMITED AND WEST DIAMOND PROPERTIES INC. /PLAYERS BUSINESS PARK LIMITED RECOMMENDATIONS: It is respectfully recommended to Council the following: 1. THAT Addendum # 2 to Report PSD- 078 -05 be received; 2. THAT subject to further detailed review by staff and report to Council, Council endorse in principle the proposed developments illustrated by the site plan prepared by Stantec Consulting Ltd. dated July 14, 2005 entitled 'Proposed Metrus Commercial Development' and the elevation drawings of the proposed Wal -Mart store prepared by dated 2005 and the proposed Real Canadian Superstore prepared by dated 2005 as illustrations of appropriate developments of the land at the northwest corner of Green Road and Highway 2. 3. THAT subject to the making of the Agreements referred to in Recommendation 4, Council endorse in principle modifications to proposed Official Plan Amendments 43 and 44 to accommodate the Phase 1 and 2 of the proposed Wal -Mart and Real Canadian Superstore and the deletion of the public use facility and replacement with 1 additional street - related commercial floorspace on the lands owned by West Diamond Properties and Players Business Park and refer further consideration of them and the Zoning Amendments recommended in Report PSD- 096 -05 to the GPA meeting on 1 September 6, 2005. 4. THAT Council direct the Municipality's solicitor in consultation with the Directors of ' Engineering Services and Planning Services to settle necessary agreements with West Diamond Properties Inc., Players Business Park Ltd., and Halloway Holdings Ltd. to protect the Municipality's interest, including without limitation, an agreement with these companies to contribute the developers funds portion of the cost of construction of the proposed Stevens Road extension between Regional Road 57 and Green Road. I� u ADDENDUM #2 TO REPORT PSD -078 -05 PAGE 2 5. THAT Council give the directions that it considers to be appropriate regarding the location of the proposed Home Depot store, the extension of Uptown Avenue, the location of the proposed private street running north from Highway 2, all on the lands at i the northeast corner of Green Road and Highway 2 as discussed in Sections 2 and 3 of this Addendum and direct staff to report on the implementation of the direction to the GPA meeting on September 6, 2005. i7. THAT the Region of Durham Planning Department and all interested parties be notified of Council's decision. I� u I Ir, LJ I I I k 1 Reviewed b Submitted by: / Y D vid�JOCrome, M.C.I.P., R.P.P. Franklin Wu, Director of Planning Services Chief Administrative Officer DJC *sn July 15, 2005 CORPORATION OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF CLARINGTON 40 TEMPERANCE STREET, BOW MANVILLE, ONTARIO L1 C 3A6 T (905)623 -3379 F (905)623 -0830 I ADDENDUM # 2 TO REPORT PSD- 078 -05 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION PAGE 3 1.1 At the Council Meeting of June 27, 2005, Council conducted a public meeting on proposed amendments to the Zoning By -law including rezoning for the Bowmanville West Town Centre Area. Council also considered reports on the Commercial Policy Review, the Bowmanville West Town Centre Secondary Plan and the application by AYT. At the meeting Council passed the following resolution: 1. That Reports PSD- 077 -05, PSD- 078 -05, Addendum to PSD- 078 -05, PSD- 096 -05 and PSD- 097 -05 be referred back to staff to enable negotiations with the development proponents with a report to be brought back to a Special Council Meeting on July 15, 2005; 2. That Council expresses it commitment to the support and maintenance of healthy, vibrant historic downtowns in Clarington; 3. That Council endorses the principle of linking new commercial floorspace to population growth; 4. That Council endorses the principle that market, land use, urban design and transportation issues are linked with respect to the consideration of development applications in the Bowmanville West Town Centre; 5. That provided that market, land use, urban design and transportation issues can be satisfactorily resolved, that Council endorse in principle that major new retail growth should occur in the West Bowmanville Town Centre; 6. That with respect to roads, staff be instructed to negotiate appropriate arrangements with the development proponents for: a) the urbanization, signalization, provision of sidewalks, streetlighting and streetscaping for Durham Highway 2 and Green Road b) the acquisition and improvement of the following new public streets: • Boswell Drive • Brookhill Boulevard to Regional Road 57 • Uptown Avenue c) the provision for private roads with appropriate option agreements for their eventual transfer to the Municipality over the longer term; and d) any other road improvements necessary; 7. That with respect to the West Diamond Properties Developments / Players Business Park site, staff be instructed to review and report on the following: a) suitable arrangements be made with respect to the public use facility; b) the request for the Phase 1 and Phase 2 Wal -Mart and Loblaw's Real Canadian Superstore and ancillary commercial space; I ADDENDUM #2 TO REPORT PSD -078 -05 PAGE 4 ' c) enhanced building elevations for :the Wal -Mart and Loblaw's Real Canadian Superstore building that meet the intent of the urban design guidelines; and d) potential commitments to meet LEED standards of the Green Building Council of Canada specifically in the design of the large format stores. 8. That with respect to the Halloway Holdings site, staff be instructed to review and report on the following: 1 a) provision for a Home Depot store in the General Commercial Area identified in the Proposed Secondary Plan consistent with the staff Demonstration Plan for the Halloway Holdings site; ' b) securing Home Depot's commitment to provide for a Clarington- specific store with enhanced elevations that meet the intent of the urban design guidelines, assurances that there would be no outdoor storage and display, and meeting ' LEED standards established by the Green Building Council of Canada; and c) provision of Uptown Avenue, private roads and a publicly accessible square consistent with the staff Demonstration Plan. 9. That staff report back on all other matters of negotiation with West Diamond ' Properties, Halloway Holdings and any other proponent in the Bowmanville West Town Centre with respect to modifications to the proposed Official Plan Amendments 43 and 44 and the proposed Zoning Amendment. 1.2 Since the meeting, staff have conducted a series of meetings with various stakeholders and have received numerous submissions. ' West Diamond Properties A series of very productive meetings have been held with West Diamond Properties to review a various number of issues: • Transportation matters were reviewed with the applicant's consultants, TSH and municipal staff. • Market issues were reviewed with the applicant's market consultant and urbanMetrics. • A series of design meetings were held with Wal -mart and Loblaws on their site plan and proposed elevations. Significant progress was made on enhanced elevations for these stores. Halloway Holdings Ltd. ' A meeting was held with Halloway Holdings Ltd. to discuss the Demonstration Plan and another staff alternative which deleted Uptown Avenue and provided for the use of the unopened road allowance. Discussions broke down with the applicant, although written material was subsequently filed. There were no design meetings and the design for the Home Depot store has not been made available to staff in advance of the Council meeting. i 1 ADDENDUM #2 TO REPORT PSD -078 -05 PAGE 5 Other Meetings Staff conducted several meetings with other stakeholders to review their concerns and clarify issues. This included Zellers, AYT and Holburn. In addition to the above, an additional transportation analysis has been completed and provided to the applicants. Additional market work has been undertaken to address the concerns raised by various parties and a memorandum report was provided to the applicants on July 14, 2005. 1.3 Although staff attempted to complete the reports scheduled for this meeting, there has not been adequate time to properly review the submissions in sufficient detail to render a decision on them. The purpose of this report is to address the most significant issues on which Council's direction is necessary. 1 2.0 HOME DEPOT 2.1 At the June 27, 2005 Council meeting, Council did not accept staff's recommendations with respect to the Home Depot store on the lands owned by Halloway Holdings Ltd. Instead, Council adopted a compromise that provided for the location of the Home Depot store on the northwest corner of the site. Staff had expressed the opinion that Home Depot, despite the positive enhancements offered by the company, is not an appropriate land use in the context of the planning environment and objectives for the Bowmanville West Town Centre. ' 2.2 Understanding Council's interest in the Home Depot Store with enhancements as presented by the representative of Home Depot, staff sought to address how the Home Depot store could be accommodated on the Halloway Holdings lands without compromising the principles of the recommended Bowmanville West Town Centre Secondary Plan. Staff prepared a Demonstration Plan to show one version of how the Halloway Holdings site could develop with the Home Depot store located in the northwest corner of the site (see Attachment 1). The proposed extension of Uptown Avenue west of Clarington Boulevard would have been maintained on the alignment established in the Secondary Plan. 2.3 Staff developed a second option based on the elimination of Uptown Avenue and the 1 development of a new road alignment along the concession road allowance (hereafter referred to as the Stevens Road extension). The Stevens Road extension (Attachment 2) provided for a more efficient development of the Halloway Holdings site and ' eliminated the 0.50 ha (1.24 acre) road allowance through the Halloway Holdings site. It still provided for the development of street - related commercial uses along Clarington Boulevard and the construction of a pedestrian retail environment. Halloway Holdings Ltd. and Home Depot objected to this proposed compromise proposal based on increased costs for grading and the ability to market the site to other tenants who would be located between anchor stores. LADDENDUM #2 TO REPORT PSD -078 -05 II r, u 1 I Ll 2.4 Halloway Holdings Ltd. advised that Home Depot will not come to this site unless the proposed Home Depot store, is located as shown on their proposed site plan (Attachment 3) in the northeast corner of the site. 2.5 Staff and Halloway Holdings Ltd. have reached an impasse in the negotiations regarding the location of the proposed Home Depot store and Uptown Avenue extension west of Clarington Boulevard as well as the location of the proposed private street running northerly from Highway 2 and certain urban design policies and zoning regulations applicable to Halloway Holding's lands. The issue of the Uptown Avenue extension and its possible replacement by the Stevens Road extension between Regional Road 57 and Green Road is discussed in Section 3 of this Addendum. 2.6 If Council endorses in principle the deletion from the Secondary Plan of the Uptown Avenue extension west of Clarington Boulevard and the replacement of Uptown Avenue by the Stevens Road extension, in order to resolve the impasse referred in paragraph 2.6, Council could endorse in principle modification to proposed Official Plan Amendment 44 to: • Relocate the proposed private street running north from Highway 2 to the Stevens Road extension to the west, as proposed by Halloway Holdings Ltd. (Attachment 4); and • Designate the lands adjoining Clarington Boulevard for home improvement store uses with associated parking. 2.8 Council could also direct staff, subject to further review of the submissions made on behalf of Home Depot and Halloway Holdings Ltd. and the proposed site plan and elevation drawings of the Home Depot store, to prepare detailed modifications to proposed Official Plan Amendment 44 and the proposed Zoning Amendments to implement the proposed site plan and elevation drawings. Council should also direct staff to undertake the reviews, prepare the any detailed OPA modifications and amendments to the recommended Zoning Amendments applicable to the Halloway Holding lands to the GPA Committee meeting on September 6, 2005. 3.0 UPTOWN AVENUE ALIGNMENT 3.1 As referenced above, staff reviewed the alternative alignments for Uptown Avenue or an equivalent collector road as proposed by Halloway Holdings Ltd. and members of Council at the June 13`h GPA meeting. The Municipality's transportation analysis indicates the necessity for an alternative east -west road to be available should either or both of the Halloway Holdings and West Diamond Properties projects proceed. Brookhill Boulevard is the preferred road to function as a collector road since the spacing from Highway 2 would provide adequate distance for traffic signals. In discussions with West Diamond Properties, the timing of the construction of Brookhill ADDENDUM #2 TO REPORT PSD -078 -05 PAGE 7 Boulevard completed from Green Road through to Regional Road 57 cannot be determined at the present time. It is likely at least 5 years out but it could be longer. 3.2 The staff - preferred scheme provided for Uptown Avenue to function as a collector road for the commercial development until such time as Brookhill Boulevard was completed. It would subsequently function as a local road providing service to the various land uses within the Bowmanville West Town Centre. The 'curvilinear" route has been part of the Secondary Plan and both private and municipal investments including the location of the Carson Elliott Skatepark have been made on this basis. 3.3 The alternative route referred to as the Stevens Road extension (see Attachment 5) would provide more direct movements into the commercial centre but splits the community park outdoor recreation area and diminishes the recreation possibilities for the park area. The Municipality is currently using the lands as parkland and there are some difficulties with now using this for road purposes. It is also the more expensive route due to the following: • additional length of roadway is required ($242,500). • additional access to Garnet B. Rickard Centre to be provided ($147,600). • demolition and replacement of the Carson Elliott Skatepark, or alternatively the purchase of additional lands from the developer to the north. 3.4 If the Stevens Road Extension is selected, staff recommends that additional land be acquired rather than using the existing road allowance for this purpose since it would retain the Carson Elliott Skatepark, provide a buffer from the ball diamonds to the road and retain many of the mature trees along the road allowance as part of the park. Alternatively the Skatepark could be demolished and reconstructed on another site. 3.5 It is staffs view that since either uptown Avenue or the Stevens Road extension is required to service either or both the Halloway Holdings and West Diamond Properties sites; the additional costs which are not currently included in the development charge should be borne by the benefiting developers. The Development Charge By -law was based on the Official Plan policy that Uptown Avenue would be built through the Halloway Holdings site as a developer- funded infrastructure. Indeed as Council knows, a portion of this road allowance is the subject of an agreement with the Municipality and Halloway Holdings Ltd. Moreover, the additional cost of either demolishing or rebuilding the Carson Elliott Skatepark or acquiring the lands necessary to build the road should be developer- funded. At the present time staff do not have an estimate of the additional costs of either land acquisition or the demolition and rebuilding of the skatepark. 3.6 Engineering Services has estimated the cost of constructing the Stevens Road Extension at $2 million plus land acquisition costs or the costs of demolition and rebuilding of the skatepark. The proposed apportionment of the costs is shown below: L) II ADDENDUM #2 TO REPORT PSD- 078 -05 PAGE Construction of Stevens Road Extension along or north of existing ROW from Green Road to Regional Road 57 Road Cost by Funding Source Description of Road Work Length Clarington Clarington Developer D.0 * Tax Contribution ' New Box Culvert (From DC) $335,000 Green Rd. to Clarington Blvd. Clarington Blvd. to 89.7 metres east of 336.8 Clarington Blvd. 89.7 89.7 metres east of Clarington Blvd. to Reg. Rd. 57 390.7 $711,074 Arena Access 90.0 11 II J I $643,288 $163,254 $147,600 Total 1 907.2 $1,046,074 1 $147,600 1 $806,542" Grand Total $2,000,216 * Clarington D.C. includes tax - related component for non - growth share ** Plus the cost of land acquisition or the cost of demolition and rebuilding of the Carson Elliott Skatepark. 4.0 PHASING OF WAL -MART AND REAL CANADIAN SUPERSTORE 4.1 The Municipality's retail market analyst was requested to review the submission made by representatives of West Diamond Properties with respect to the possibility of eliminating the phasing recommendations contained in the Addendum Market Report. Separate meetings were convened with the West Diamond Properties and Zeller's representatives and their respective market consultants. A Supplemental Market Analysis was prepared which tested the alternate phasing of new floorspace throughout the Municipality (Attachment 6). 4.2 The alternative phasing considered the following changes: • The West Diamond Properties project would be delayed so that the first full year of operation would be 2008. • The expansion of the existing Loblaws would be delayed to 2016. • The Courtice Main Central Area would be phased in over the longer term. • Minor adjustments to the Torgan DSTM floorspace, the retenanted Loblaws DSTM and the amount of DSTM in the new Real Canadian Superstore. The main difference between the earlier analysis is the delay in the opening of the West Diamond Properties site, delay of the Courtice Main Central Area and moving from a "worst case scenario to recognize that there will be some natural phasing of commercial facilities that would see certain tenants construct somewhat later than 2008. ADDENDUM #2 TO REPORT PSD- 078 -05 PAGE 9 4.3 It is the analyst's opinion that the additional space could be accommodated without ' affecting the planned function of existing centres. He did note however, the store in Bowmanville would experience a higher sales decline than previously (moving from 10% to 11 %) and that Zellers declines would be 34 %. Constructing the major stores in one phase makes sense, given the relative closeness between phases but provides is a less cautious approach than previously taken. 1 5.0 I II II II J URBAN DESIGN ISSUES AND SITE PLANS West Diamond Several meetings were held with West Diamond representatives and their anchors Wal- Mart and Loblaws (Real Canadian Superstore). There was substantial progress made with respect to the proposed design of the two stores having regard to the urban design policies contained in Official Plan Amendment 44. The Real Canadian Superstore is a contemporary design with a large mezzanine which has been designed as a significant architectural element. The building design provides for a significant amount of glazing but not at street level. Primary concerns were the need for additional articulation of the horizontal wall plane and roofline on the Green Road building face; the introduction of masonry elements on the building wall, additional glazing, and the relationship of the building to the landscaping, and landscaping in the parking areas. These issues have been satisfactorily addressed. There are concerns about the storage /display area under the mezzanine extension and the landscaping in the parking lot, which are to be further addressed. Wal -Mart first proposed a standard elevation, then a slightly enhanced elevation and finally a significantly improved elevation. Primary concerns were the location of the proposed garden centre, tire lube express and one of the loading areas facing Boswell Street, the lack of articulation of the horizontal wall plane and roofline, building materials, the amount of glazing, the narrow sidewalk in front of the store, the placement of exterior vending machines, the lack of a canopy, the landscaping of the parking areas and the proposed screening for the loading and service areas. Staff are pleased that the proposed elevations of both stores meet most of the urban design principles although not precisely in the manner prescribed in the proposed Secondary Plan and Zoning By -law amendments. It is recommended that the proposed elevations and conceptual site design (Attachment 7) be endorsed in principle as the basis for finalizing the Official Plan and Zoning for the site. Halloway Holdings Limited Home Depot provided a rendering at the June 13th GPA meeting and subsequently provided the sample of the pre -cast masonry panel shown at that time. They provided a list of proposed enhancements by letter dated July 14, 2005 but did not submit building elevations or have had any discussion with staff on this matter. A site plan was submitted but there has been no discussion with the applicant on this either. IADDENDUM #2 TO REPORT PSD -078 -05 I I I I I PAGE 10 Staff is not in a position to comment on their proposal. It is recommended that if Council endorses a Home Depot store on the Halloway Holdings site, that the proposed elevations and site be referred to staff for consideration prior to finalizing the Official Plan and Zoning for the site. 6.0 CONCLUSIONS 6.1 This report provides interim recommendations and seeks Council's direction on a number of matters so that staff may finalize its recommendations and the planning instruments. The situation is not ideal given the OMB pre- hearing conference on September 6, 2005. Should Council wish to discuss issues related to the Municipality's legal position, the Solicitor and staff can provide further briefing in- camera. Attachments: Attachment 1 — Home Depot and Uptown Avenue Alignment Attachment 2 — Home Depot and Stevens Road Alignment Attachment 3 — Halloway /Home Depot Proposed Site Plan Attachment 4 — Halloway Holdings' Proposed Private Street Relocation Attachment 5 — Proposed alignment for Stevens Road ' Attachment 6 — Supplemental Market Analysis Attachment 7 —West Diamond /Players Conceptual Site Plan I I I I I I I I �I Annr -Kinr IRA 119 Tn RFPnRT PS13-078 -05 I IList of interested parties to be advised of Council's decision: Henry Joseph Ari Yasa Ron Worboy ' B. Westerman Beth Kelly, Valiant Property Mgmt. Bob Hann, Valiant Property Mgmt. ' John Vanderkooi Eileen Costello, Aird & Berlis LLP Gwen Wallace Lyn Townsend, Lynda Townsend - Renaud Law Brent Clarkson, MHBC Planning Limited Heather Muir Carol Duffy Bruce Curl Jim and Suzanne Gregory Stan Stein, Osler Hoskin & Harcourt ' Todd Gibbon Bill Humber Linda Moore Ron Hooper George Kloos Richard Lange Leroy Clarke Ted Watson Hannu Halminen, Halminen Homes ' Limited Jennifer Stone, This Week Newspapers Brian O'Connor Richard Marchant David Butler, The Butler Group Inc. ' Peter Smith, Bousfields Inc. Bryce Jordan. G.M. Sernas Associates Carmela Cupelli Scott Houghton Nancy Lewis Maryann Fines ' E.C. Braham Sue Sedlak N. Gummon 1 Otto Provenzano S. Fraser PAGE 11 Bill Hinbert Doug Finnson and Terri Bickwell -Potts Duncan McPherson Trevor Small Ellen Cowan Peter Vogel Ray and Joyce Atkinson Margaret Zwart Ira Kagan, Kagan, Shastri, Barristers & Sal. Brian Fraser Mark Rowe Rudi Van Wijngaarden Paul & Anne -Marie Halliday John Huber James Scarth John and Lilian Bouma B. Haines Lilly T. Hinton Mary-Ann Kalotai Diane James Costantine Bruno Richard Rekker Alan Vaillancourt Mavis Carlton Rick Hofstede The Greater Toronto Transit Robert DeGasperis, Metrus Properties Inc. Yolanda Gjaltema John & Lillian Bouma Marvin Green, River Oaks Group Kathy Pandell. Geoffrey L. Moore & Associates Ltd. Marianne Zwyers Lakeshore Group Carmine Cupelli George Ibanez Lawrence Hellinga R. Tukker A. Sorg Bryan MacLean Linda Hallett and George loanidis Doug Woods Frank W. Lockhart J. Sproatt L. J l u ADDENDUM #2 TO REPORT PSD- 078 -05 Mike Dome Celeste Terry, Durham Regional Planning Gail Rickard James Vinson Ian Smith Anthony Turnbull Evelyn Rosario Steve Zakem, Aird & Berlis LLP Scott Arbuckle, Planning & Engineering Initiatives Ltd. David Crowell, A & P Properties Limited PAGE 12 Suzanne McCrimmon, Clarington Board of Trade Jim Russell John Shewchuk, Royal LePage Frank Real Estate Paul Wilson Philip Brent Peter Walker, Walker Nott Dragecivic Associates Limited Terry and Phyllis Price Roslyn Houser, Goodmans LLP Rick Gay, Gay Company Limited Mark Pepper 1 a ck OA � e�LLQel 5. 1.a4 IL • - - — — - -r - Uptown Avenue Alignment a a, , 10 r r 0 �� � N Stevens Road Alignment cl 1 JI II I 1. LLI LLJ is Attachment 4 - Halloway Holdings Proposed Private Street Relocation 1 /7 rIrLmWiw)� H I l tiU IVIG14 1 V Memorandum Report Clarington Commercial Policy Review Supplementary Market Analysis Scenario D -1 (s) Prepared for: Municipality of Clarington Date: July 14, 2005 nMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors I 144 -146 Front Street West, Suite 460 Toronto, ON M5J 217 urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors 144 -146 Front Street West, Suite 460 ' Toronto, ON, 105J 2L7 416- 351 -8585 Toll Free 1-800 -505 -8755 (416( 345 -8586 (fax( ' www.urbonmetrics.ca MEMORANDUM To: Mr. David Crome, Municipality of Clarington ' From: Doug Annand, Lynne Davidson Date: July 14, 2005 Subject: Commercial Policy Review - ' Joseph Urban Consultants Memorandum, June 9, 2005, Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, Letter from Mr. Stan Stein to Clarington, June 15, 2005 and ' Goodmans LLP, Letter from Ms. Roslyn Houser to Clarington, June 13, 2005 Newcastle IGA, Letter from Tenzin Gyaltsan, June 9, 2005 As requested by the Municipality of Clarington, urbanMetrics inc. has provided our comments with respect to the following correspondence received by the Municipality in response to the Clarington Commercial Policy Review and the Addendum Market Analysis, dated May 9, 2005 prepared by urbanMetrics inc.: ' • Joseph Urban Consultants, Memorandum to the Municipality of Clarington on behalf of Zellers inc, ' June 9, 2005 • Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, Letter to the Municipality of Clarington on behalf of Zellers inc., June 15, 2005 ' • Goodmans LLP, Letter to the Municipality of Clarington on behalf of West Diamond Properties Inc. and Players Business Park Ltd. ( "West Diamond "), June 13, 2005 • Newcastle IGA, Letter to the Municipality of Clarington, June 9, 2005 ' Joseph Urban Consultants Memorandum ( "Joseph ") ' Joseph has provided a number of comments with respect to our Addendum Report Scenario D -1 analysis and the implications for existing retailers, with a focus on the Zellers in Clarington Centre. The following summarizes our response. urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 urbanMetrics inc. ' market, economic and strategic advisors ' Department Store Potential and Impact ' Department store share - Joseph has provided an analysis which assumes a higher department store share of DSTM than utilized by urbanMetrics in our Scenario D -1 analysis. It is our opinion that the ' department store share utilized by urbanMetrics for this scenario, which increases from an estimated existing level of 26.5% to 29 %, is realistic as it recognizes that despite the addition of the Wal -Mart, over 400,000 square feet of non - department store DSTM is included in Scenario D -1, which is far in excess of ' the Wal -Mart space proposed. The affect of this large amount of non - department store DSTM space offsets any significant increase in the department store share assumed by Joseph. Inflow - The inflow figure of 30% utilized by urbanMetrics inc. for the Wal -Mart is based on the existing inflow for the Zellers, as determined from the licence plate survey data conducted at the Clarington Centre. With additional regional serving space added to the Bowmanville West area, the area has the potential to draw more dollars from outside Clarington, including visitors and employees who work in the area. Therefore, we have no reason to assume that the inflow factor would be reduced. ' Impacts - In our Scenario D -1 analysis, to determine the impact of the Phase 2 expansion of Wal -Mart on Zellers, it was tested with a first full year of opening in 2008. Based on the resulting sales performance levels for the Zellers, we recommended a first full year opening of the Phase 2 expansion be delayed until 2010 to minimize impacts. • Non - Department Store DSTM ( "Specialty DSTM ") Potential & Impact ' Non - Department Store DSTM Share - For the reasons stated above, we support our 71 % future forecast of the non - department store DSTM share of total DSTM based on the space assumptions in Scenario D- 1 . Inflow - The forecast average inflow levels are based on existing inflow levels in Bowmanville and Courtice, as determined from empirical research, applied to the proposed space. It should be noted that in Courtice, a higher inflow level (based on the results of the Courtice licence plate survey) was utilized for ' the space in the Courtice Main Central Area, which results in the higher overall 33% inflow figure for Clarington as a whole. ' Impacts - As a worst case scenario, most of the proposed non - department store DSTM space was introduced with a first full year opening in 2007 in Scenario D -1. The results of our analysis indicated that some phasing would therefore be required to minimize impacts. Recognizing that a significant amount of ' space included in our analysis for 2007 will not likely be developed until after 2007 and/or will be phased, we have carried out a sensitivity analysis in the later part of this memorandum that assesses changes to our assumptions (supplementary analysis Scenario D -1 (s)). 1 1 urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 2 1 urbanMetrics inco market, economic and strategic advisors • Market Projections vs Proposed Retail Floorspace ' Joseph states that urbanMetrics has made aggressive assumptions of outflow recovery (i.e. recapture) and inflow sales opportunities. We would consider our recapture assumptions as conservative. 1 Clarington residents are currently making 65.8% of their specialty DSTM purchases, which equates to $137.4 million, outside of Clarington. Therefore, only 34.2% of Clarington residents' specialty DSTM expenditures are currently made in Clarington. In the future, we have estimated in Scenario D -1 that this share would increase to 53.5% with over 400,000 square feet of additional non - department store DSTM space added to the Clarington market. In our opinion, the capture levels used in our analysis are still below what we would consider normal capture rates for a community the size of Clarington. ' Although we would agree that the forecast growth in population can be considered modest, as indicated by Joseph, the fact that Clarington residents' are not well served with retail facilities in their community is ' the major issue. There is a significant opportunity to recapture a large portion of outflow sales with the development of regional scale retail facilities in Clarington that will effectively compete with retail facilities in other municipalities, such as Oshawa and Whitby. As a future planned integrated /urban community with strong retail areas, Clarington will have the ability to stem a large portion of this current outflow. On a geographic sub - sector basis, based on the results of the telephone survey (urbanMetrics inc./Tate ' Economic Research Background Report), Bowmanville Urban Area residents are currently making 56% of their non - department store DSTM expenditures outside of Clarington with those in West Clarington (including Courtice and the former Darlington Township) making about 82% outside. For East Clarington 1 residents (including Newcastle Village, Orono, and former Clarke Township) over 50% of these expenditures are made outside. East Clarington residents are actually by- passing retail facilities in Bowmanville in favour of new format and regional retail facilities in Oshawa, Whitby and Ajax. With new retail facilities offered in Clarington, significant opportunity exists to intercept outflow sales, and particularly those occurring from Bowmanville and East Clarington residents. Our forecast Clarington share assumptions recognize that approximately 60% of the population in Clarington is comprised of Bowmanville and east Clarington (including Newcastle Village, Orono, and former Clarke Township). The remaining 40% includes west Clarington (i.e. Courtice and the former Darlington Township). Given the close proximity of Oshawa, this west portion of the municipality is considered more likely to continue to shop for a large portion of their non - department store DSTM expenditures outside of Clarington. ' With the additional non - department store DSTM space added to the Clarington market, we believe that outflow will decline to 46.5% with an average of some 53.5% spent locally in Clarington, which is still a conservative estimate. The derivation of the average forecast factor of 53.5 %, as utilized in Scenario D -1 for the years 2007 to 2016 was based on our review of expenditure characteristics on a geographic sub - sector basis as follow: urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 I 1 urbanMetrics inc• market, economic and strategic advisors 1 • Bowmanville - estimated at 39% of the Clarington non - department store DSTM expenditure potential, ' with an existing Clarington share of 44% estimated to increase to the 70% range by 2007 • West Clarington — estimated at 43% of the Clarington non - department store DSTM expenditure potential, with an existing Clarington share of 18% estimated to increase to about 25% by 2007 1 • East Clarington — estimated at 18% of the Clarington non - department store DSTM expenditure potential, with an existing Clarington share of 50% estimated to increase to about 75% by 2007 We note that even by 2007, the application of a 53.5% average Clarington share still results in a significant outflow of non - department store DSTM sales from Clarington at $113.2 million, increasing to $149.6 million by 2016. • Orderly Department Store Expansion ' Joseph indicates that they "do not see the necessity to strengthen the department store anchor capability of the municipality for another five years ". We see this statement as an attempt to limit the introduction of Wal -Mart into the community purely on the basis of restricting competition and protecting the market share ' of Zellers; a store which is performing significantly above the Zellers industry average (i.e. the Clarington Zellers performing at an estimated $205 per square foot in 2003 compared to Zellers' Canadian average of $158 per square foot in 2003). Our telephone survey indicates that residents of Clarington are already ' shopping at Wal -Mart in other Durham Region municipalities and therefore the addition of a Wal -Mart in Clarington will provide a more convenient location. Wal -Mart is also considered by urbanMetrics as a key store that will improve the recapture of outflow sales and an important anchor tenant for Bowmanville West that will help attract other retail development and improve the level of retail service for residents. ' 0 Orderly Specialty DSTM Expansion Although the orderly approach to developing other retail facilities in Clarington is important, the Joseph phasing plan must be viewed in the context of the likelihood of other retail projects included in our Scenario D -1 analysis and their realistic timing of entry into the market. A sensitivity analysis which includes revised phasing assumptions has been included in this memorandum report. • Lack of Directional Impact Analysis ' In our Addendum report of May 9, 2005, urbanMetrics was only asked by the Municipality and the Region to test the directional impacts with the AYT application included. Recognizing this concern, we have provided a directional impact analysis in this memorandum report based on our supplementary scenario (Scenario D -1 (s)) which evaluates different phasing assumptions than utilized in our Scenario D -1. i urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 4 1 urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP Wal -Mart Sales Performance Levels Mr. Stein has indicated that the sales performance levels utilized by urbanMetrics for the proposed Wal- Mart Clarington are too low by $100 per square foot (we have assumed $400 per square foot in 2008, increasing to $500 per square foot by 2016, expressed in 2003 dollars in our supplementary Scenario D -1 (s)) and Scenario D -1 in our Addendum report). Mr. Stein has utilized the Guelph OMB decision as the basis for his conclusion. We note that at the public meeting he initially quoted $405 per square foot for the Guelph settlement but later revised this figure to a much higher figure based on the Guelph OMB decision dated July 25, 2003. Although we are aware of the Guelph decision, it is our opinion that the characteristics of each market must be taken into account, including the proximity to other Wal -Mart competition and other factors, such as store size. Based on our knowledge of Wal-Mart sales, they do vary by location, reflecting different market characteristics. We note that Clarington has a current population of some 80,000 persons that are not geographically centred (i.e. in a number of urban areas and dispersed villages), whereas the City of Guelph has a concentrated urban population of some 125,000 persons with at least some 200,000 persons in its trading area. Therefore, there is no reason that the expected Wal -Mart sales in Clarington would be as high as those assumed in Guelph. Goodmans Based on our review of the Goodmans response and discussions with the Municipality, we have prepared a supplementary analysis (Scenario D -1 (s) with additional years added), based on Scenario D -1 in our Addendum report) that tests the following new phasing in store size assumptions as outlined in the Goodman's letter: • West Diamond Centre — all space built with a first full year of operation in 2008, including the Wal- Mart (revised size of 151,000 square feet based on input from Goodmans) and Loblaws (Phase 1 and 2). • Clarington Centre expansion — potential expansion of the existing Loblaws space for non -food uses delayed to 2016 • Clarington Centre Loblaws retenanting — 40,000 square feet of non - department store DSTM space rather than the 50,400 square feet assumed in our Scenario D -1 to delete mezzanine space and to allow for other non - retail uses; first full year of operation 2009 • Torgan Site— due to floodplain issues, a reduction in the non - department store DSTM floor space from 75,000 square feet to 65,000 square feet • Loblaws — Non - Department Store DSTM merchandise in the new store — revision from the 21,300 square feet tested in our Scenario D -1 to 30,000 square feet with a first full year in 2008 • Courtice Main Central Area — phased in space over the longer term We would agree with Goodman's that it is highly unlikely that all the non - department store DSTM space built into our Scenario D -1 analysis will have a first full -year of operation in 2007. Our Scenario D -1 was urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors 1 intended as a "worst case" scenario, while Scenario D -1 (s) has been provided in this memorandum to 1 recognize that there will be some natural phasing of commercial facilities. In addition to Scenario D -1(s) phasing assumptions, a number of modifications were also made to the ' department store share of DSTM and the Clarington share as follows: • A department store share of 30% in 2008 declining to 29% (as utilizing in Scenario D -1) over the study period recognizing the reduction in the proposed non - department store space evaluated in the short term • Clarington share for non - department store DSTM of 42.5% in 2007, increasing to 53.5% in 2010 (a figure of 53.5% was utilizing over the entire study period for Scenario D -1) to recognize the phasing and reduction in total non - department store DSTM space analyzed. Based on the results of our Scenario D -1 (s) analysis, impacts in the non - department store DSTM category will be reduced to levels that are not expected to affect planned function (declines of 10% in 2008, 8% in 2010, with recovery to above existing levels after 2010). Higher sales declines are expected for stores in the Bowmanville Urban Area (average of 11 % decline) with lower sales declines elsewhere in Clarington. In the department store category, the existing Zellers can expect to experience declines in sales performance of some 34% in 2008, although the resulting sales performance level of $135 per square foot is not expected to result in store closure recognizing that the existing average performance level for Zellers stores in Canada is $154 per square foot in 2004. As a sensitivity test, we note that if the Clarington share for the department store category is increased from 50% (as utilized in Scenario D -1 and ' D -1(s) to 51% or 52% respectively, sales per square foot for the existing Zellers would only decline in 2008 to $150 and $165 per square foot respectively. This illustrates the sensitivity of the shares utilized. Newcastle IGA, Supermarket Issue The owner of the Newcastle IGA has raised a number of issues with respect to the food store market in Clarington. Based on our review of these issues, we offer the following comments: • According to the Municipality, the A &P in Bowmanville Mall has recently made an application to expand their store to 52,700 square feet. This represents an expansion of 24,900 square feet. At the time of our initial market analysis, this application did not exist. We have addressed this expansion and potential impacts in our supplementary market analysis as provided in this ' memorandum (Table 7-D-1 (s)). Based on our recapture assumption (i.e. existing Clarington share increasing from 66.9% to 75% in future years), with the proposed Loblaws (net traditional food component) and A &P expansion, average sales for existing Clarington supermarkets would decline from the current average performance level of $545 per square foot to $525 per square I urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 1 urbanMetrics inc* market, economic and strategic advisors foot in 2008. These sales levels are both considered significantly above typical industry norms and therefore no critical sales impacts are expected. A full recovery to above existing levels would occur by 2010, with at least $17 million of additional residual sales potential available for new supermarkets facilities in Clarington by 2016. • Based on discussions with the municipality, they have only heard rumors of Sobey's opening a store in Bowmanville. There has been no application to date. • Based on correspondence we have received from Aird & Berlis, the legal counsel for Loblaws, the existing Loblaws store will be retenanted for non -food store uses. Loblaws has complete control over this site and there is no lease clause which states that the building must be a grocery store. We note, however, that the existing zoning by -law requires that the Clarington Centre have a supermarket. Based on discussions with Steven Zakem of Aird & Berlis, an application has been made to amend the zoning by -law to allow other uses for the Clarington Centre Loblaw property and therefore to remove the requirement for a supermarket. We are fully aware of the merchandise overlap between various store types. For the proposed Loblaws, the non -food store merchandise was analyzed separately as it represents a significant component of this store. Recognizing that other food stores in the Clarington market do not include significant non -food store merchandise, this methodology is considered appropriate in evaluating sales impacts on existing local food stores. However, for department stores, other general merchandise stores and other retailers, we have not extracted the potential food component and analyzed this separately, although it is recognized that there will be some overlap with other retailers, including supermarkets. We note that a large portion of the sales support for the proposed Wal -Mart would be available from the transfer of sales already made in existing Wal -Mart stores and other DSTM stores with food store related merchandise. Therefore, the magnitude of the impact on food stores would be difficult to ascertain. We note, however, that based our supplementary supermarket analysis, as detailed in Table 7-D-1 (s), even with the Loblaws expansion /relocation and A &P expansion, the existing stores could withstand additional sales transfers as a result of the addition of food store related merchandise being offered in Wal- Mart or other DSTM stores offering food merchandise.. Conclusions In conclusion, and recognizing the various phasing and size assumptions discussed above, our supplementary analysis would suggest that phasing of the Wal -Mart and Loblaws on the West Diamond site is not required if their first full year of operation is delayed until 2008. However, in order to minimize potential impacts on Clarington retail facilities, and specifically downtown Bowmanville, it may be prudent for Clarington to structure the West Diamond zoning by -law to ensure that Wal -Mart and Loblaws do not open prior to 2007. urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 Table 1 -D-1 (s) CLARINGTON SCENARIO D -1 (s) HOME AND AUTO WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) Sales from Clarngton Residents IS Milkers) 0-od, am'I remava0 Less, Sales Required flOrn Exislfng Clarington H 8 A Shores for Home Improvement Centres (see Ta01e 2 -61 (s)) Net Sales from Claimglao Residers Rus: Estimated Inflow 30% 12 TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES (Canadian Tire) Total Sq Ft GIA Existng Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4 SOUrcR: uNardiam SMe. 1) Bated on the resins or the lelq be mnsume survey for Canadian Tire Stores only. 2) udhe umria inc estimate 3) Fxluding any Wi ithool residual Pox ial reluirM from other store ry im analyzed. 4) Ro+ntletl 0 the amnst 55 per square foot GLA. $0A $1.1 $1.6 $2.6 N.6 $6.8 $157 $161 $16.6 $175 8183 $205 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,660 $300 $295 $305 $320 $335 $375 $415 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2016 2003 Dollars Clarington $20.5 $22.4 $238 $24.7 $25.7 $26.8 $29.6 $32.4 Home& Auto Expenditure Potential 76.5% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0Y Clarington Share ( %) (1 $157 $17.9 $19.0 - $19.B $20.6 $21.4 $233 $25.9 Clarington Share ($) $15.7 $15 7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7 $15.7 E15.7 $15.7 Less: Effective Competition N/A $2.2 $3.3 $4.1 $4.9 $57 $00 $W2 Residual Potential tram Clarington Residents P d C d The Ex a sl0n 15,200 15,200 15,200 15,200 15,200 15,200 Square FEeI GLA Expansion $2]5 $285 $290 $295 $300 $315 Sales15q. Ft. GLA 54.2 84.3 $6.0 54.5 $46 $4.6 Total Sales Volume (2 $1.3 $1.3 $1 3 $114 $14 $1.4 Less: Inflow I07 30% 529 $3.0 $3.1 $3.1 $3.2 $34 ToUl Sales Required form Clanngim Residents Total Hone and Auto Residual Sales Potential Available ham Clarington Resitlents $3.3 S4.1 $4.9 $5] $60 $102 Sales Transfers Required ham Existing Clarington Stores (inducing Canadian Tile and CSTM nQ'10 stores) based on Available Residual none nrne none none mne Sales from Clarngton Residents IS Milkers) 0-od, am'I remava0 Less, Sales Required flOrn Exislfng Clarington H 8 A Shores for Home Improvement Centres (see Ta01e 2 -61 (s)) Net Sales from Claimglao Residers Rus: Estimated Inflow 30% 12 TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES (Canadian Tire) Total Sq Ft GIA Existng Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4 SOUrcR: uNardiam SMe. 1) Bated on the resins or the lelq be mnsume survey for Canadian Tire Stores only. 2) udhe umria inc estimate 3) Fxluding any Wi ithool residual Pox ial reluirM from other store ry im analyzed. 4) Ro+ntletl 0 the amnst 55 per square foot GLA. $0A $1.1 $1.6 $2.6 N.6 $6.8 $157 $161 $16.6 $175 8183 $205 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,660 $300 $295 $305 $320 $335 $375 $415 11 1 1 II II Table 2- D -1(s) $2.2 Sates from Clarington Residents ($ Millions) 83,900 Less: Saks ReOu'red from Exisfirg CmnVkn HI Stores /Or Home $230 8 Auto Stores (from Tade 1 -D -1 (s)) $0.0 Net Sales from Clarington Residents CLARINGTON Plus Estimated 010ow 30% (2 Sea TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES - $3.1 RUS Wholesale Trade Q 30% Si 3 GRAND TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES - $45 SCENARIO D-1(s) WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 15,800 E nsOrg Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4 $200 S4S $4.4 $4.6 HOME IMPROVEMENT (HI) STORE $9.9 $10.1 $10.3 $10.7 76,400 76,d00 76,400 76,400 94,700 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2016 2003 Dollars $24.6 $53 $55 $5.6 $57 $74 $37 $3.8 Clarington $18.7 $19 6 $21.2 $22.1 $22.6 $23.6 $12.0 e Home Improvement Store Expenditure Potential 65.0% B0.0% B0.0% B0.0°h 80.0% B0.0% 80.0 80. 80.0% Clarington Share (%) (1 t23% $2.2 $12.7 $17.D $17.7 $18.1 $18.9 $21.0 $23.0 Clarington Share ($) $2 2 $2 2 $2 2 $2 2 $2 2 $2 2 $2.2 $2.2 Less: Effective Competition NIA $t0.5 $74.8 $15.5 $15.9 $16.7 $168 $208 Residual Potential from Clarington Residents Valiant -Hone Depot - Square Feet GIA SaleslSci Ft. GLA Total Sales Volume Less'. WhdesalaredraGor Trade Q30% (2 Less: IrdlOw@(2 31Y%, (2 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents Tongan - Rona - Square Feet GILA Seles2Sq, FL GLA Total Sales Volume Less: WholesalroCentrador Trade @30% (2 Less: Inflow Q(2 30% (2 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents TOTAL SALES REQUIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS FOR A. B S. Total HI Residual Sales Potential Available from Cladnglon Residents Sates Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Stores (including Home Improvement and DSTM) Based On Available Residue (2 Estimated Transfers from Existing Hl Stores in Clarington 10% (2 Estimated Transfers from Non- DeperMant Store DSTM 60% (2 Estimated Transfers from Depadment Store DSTM 5% (2 Estimated Transfers from Canadian Tire 25% $ CIARINGTON HI SY/W e - $2.2 Sates from Clarington Residents ($ Millions) 83,900 Less: Saks ReOu'red from Exisfirg CmnVkn HI Stores /Or Home $230 8 Auto Stores (from Tade 1 -D -1 (s)) $0.0 Net Sales from Clarington Residents $2.2 Plus Estimated 010ow 30% (2 Sea TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES - $3.1 RUS Wholesale Trade Q 30% Si 3 GRAND TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES - $45 Total Sq Ft GLA (Hone Improvemenutun r stores only) 15,800 E nsOrg Sales Per Square Feet GLA (4 $200 Source: rr6anMemcs mc. 1) Based on the result, of the telephone consumer survey for Mme fmpne emeolcerx a stores only. 2) umar94eN¢ in, e¢Omate 3) Excluding any addrionalreadr®I purenhal required Mm oaten store types analyzed. 4) Rounded to the nearest 55 per square feel GLA 83,900 83,900 83,900 83,900 83,900 $230 $240 $245 $250 5260 $19.3 $20.1 $20.6 $21.0 $218 $58 $6.0 $62 $63 $6.5 $4.1 $42 S4S $4.4 $4.6 $9A $9.9 $10.1 $10.3 $10.7 76,400 76,d00 76,400 76,400 94,700 $230 $240 $245 $250 $260 $17.6 $183 $18.7 $19.1 $24.6 $53 $55 $5.6 $57 $74 $37 $3.8 $39 $40 $52 $8.6 $9.0 $92 $9.4 $12.0 $15.5 $159 $167 $10.8 $208 $03 $0.3 $0.3 $03 $04 $1.9 $2.0 $2.0 $17 $23 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 02 $1.9 $1.9 _ $1.9 $1.9 $1.8 $19 $170 $170 $170 $170 $166 $170 u ` Table 3 -D -1 (s) CLARINGTON DSTM EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENTS 2003 DO0ars 2003 Province of Ontario Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (I $3,594 Plus: Selected Wholesale (CamputerlOffice SOpPIlaS) (2 $100 Total Per Capita DSTM Experd0vres $3,694 2003 O.Pars 2003 2005 200, 21108 2009 2010 2013 2016 II II 11 C] 1 Income Ind" To Province 9].40 DSTIA to Province 9960 $3,600 83,790 53.900 $3,955 $4.010 $4.065 $0230 $4.600 Capinex Per Capita DSTM Expentlittres (3 ]7200 81500 84910 88600 88700 90800 96900 103,000 PopNatbn(From Table 1) $284.1 $308.9 $331.1 $302 5 $355.7 $369.1 $409.8 $453.2 Total DSTM Potential ($ Milions) 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 30.11% 30.0% 30.0% 290% 29.0% DeparlmeN Store Share ®(4 575.3 $81.9 5873 $102.8 $106.7 $1101 $118.9 $1316 Departivem Stye Share PotertOl ($Milli0ns) 73.5% 73.5% 735% 70.0% 700% 700% 71.0% 710% Non- Departmenl Store DSTM Share(] 5208.8 52270 $ 243.4 5239.B $249.0 5258.6 $291.0 $321.8 Non - Department Store DSTM Potential (SWIlions) Source: urbanMetncsme. 1) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (PWliealion 63- 005) and Monthly Retail Trade tlala. 2) Estimated based on Slalisiirs Canatla, Wbolesale Trade(specel tabulation) 40 x is the 3) Based on Me income relationship between Ore Province and Study Area residents using the DSTM regression equ vlam of y = +06(x) where 1 income index RoutMed to the nearest 5500. Forecast In increase In real tenons at a to of 1.5% Per year (not compoursied) 41 Estimated based an evaluation of Ole survey reauhts, the provincial average and knoMedge M the local market. II II 11 C] 1 1 1 1 Table 4-D -1 (S) Total Sales Volume Less: Irmo@ 30% (2 Total Sales Required! imm 0a6n9ton Residents West Di dB Mvem L bW E IR 1 Von ( CLARANGTON SaleslSq. Ft GLA Total Sales Volume Less: Inflow® 30% (2 Total Sales Required from Clariegton Residents SCENARIO D -1(s) Sales)Sq. Ft. GLA Total Sales Volume Less: Innow® 30% 12 Total Sales Request from Cla ington Residents NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS 15 Millions Toroan SaWS/Sq. FL GLA Total Sales Volume Less: edl. @ 30% (2 Total Sales Required from CWdngton Residents 2003 2005 2007 2006 2009 2010 2013 2016 2003 Dollars Total Sales Rewired from Cianngton Residents Other Bowmanville - Local Central Areas SaleslS% Ft GLA Total Sales Volume Clarinatan $208.B $2270 $2436 $239.8 $249.0 $25(1.4 $2910 $321.8 IJOn- Deaadmem Store DST PoteMial($Mil9ons) 34.2% 342% 42.5% 48.5% 50.0% 525% 535% 53.5% Clenngion Share(S) $71A $T1.6 $103.4 $1163 $124.5 $1353 $155.] $1722 CWnngtgn Stare ($) $716 $]10 $itA $71A $71.4 E71.4 $]1A 71 Less: Effeoive Competition N14 $6.2 $32.0 $44.9 $53.1 $64.3 $81.3 $100,8 Residual Polen6al from Clanrglon Residents Wart DWmontl SPlavere Liable.. DST M Conn VOt he r And Il DSTM SOace SaiesSq, Ft, GLA Total Sales Volume Less: Irmo@ 30% (2 Total Sales Required! imm 0a6n9ton Residents West Di dB Mvem L bW E IR 1 Von ( I)STM) SaleslSq. Ft GLA Total Sales Volume Less: Inflow® 30% (2 Total Sales Required from Clariegton Residents Clarmaton Piece Emanelan Sales)Sq. Ft. GLA Total Sales Volume Less: Innow® 30% 12 Total Sales Request from Cla ington Residents Toroan SaWS/Sq. FL GLA Total Sales Volume Less: edl. @ 30% (2 Total Sales Required from CWdngton Residents Clarinuilon Con" - L bl Retenintlna SaleslSq. Ft GLA Total Sales Volume Less: In6gw@ 30% (2 - Total Sales Rewired from Cianngton Residents Other Bowmanville - Local Central Areas SaleslS% Ft GLA Total Sales Volume Less: hill.Q 15% (2 Total Sales Required iron Ciadnglot Residents Valiant - Counties Main Central Ants Sales/Sq. Ft. GIA Total Sales Volume Less: Inflow® 50% (2 Total Saks Required from Cl8hNt0s Residents Newus0e Village Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA Total Sales Volume Less: Inflow@ 15% (2 Total Sales Required from Ganngti)n Residents 0 46,800 46,600 46,80(11 46,600 $0 $310 5315 $320 $335 $0.0 $14.5 $143 5150 $157 $0 $310 $315 $320 $335 )0 $9.3 $9.5 $9.6 $10.1 $285 $290 $295 $310 $23.3 $23.B $24.2 $254 $260 $270 $275 $280 $300 $169 $17.6 $179 $18.2 $19.5 $0 $0 5290 $295 $310 00 $00 $11.6 $11.B - $124 5210 5215 5220 $230 $3.2 $3.2 $33 $3.5 50 $o $265 $270 $280 ).0 $00 S00 $16.2 $210 6200 5210 $215 $220 $230 $2.0 $2.1 $2.2 52.2 $2.3 Table 4- D -1(e) continued CLARINGTON SCENARIO D -1(a) NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions 2003 Dollars IET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL POTENTIAL FOR EXISTING /OTHER FUTURE PROPOSED SPACE (4 $0.3 none none none a,�.o :XISTING CLARINGTON NON -DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE: Sales from Cladngton Residents ($ Millions) Imcio ire ada'I *odua0 $714 $717 $66.6 $657 $678 Sal 0 $923 Less: Sales Required from Existing Cladrigfon DSTM Slays for Can. T' Table 1 -D -f (3)) $0.0 $0.0 E0.0 $0.0 EO0 E00 $0.0 rre "pa bleed e e NOT 2008 2009 2010 2013 2016 Total Clarington -PropoaetlrPdential Designated Non - Department Store DSTM Spece(Not) 171,900 248,100 288,700 348,700 385,/00 363,700 "1B6 TOTAL SALES- ProposetllDesigrated Non - Department Store DSTM Spore ($ Millions) $44.4 S70A $KS $100.5 $109.9 Averge Sales Per Square Fret- Proposed $260 $280 $285 $290 $300 $0.0 $325 $0.0 Less -. TOTAL Whdesale Trade (if WMC) $90 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Less: TOTAL ESTIMATED INFLOW SALES - Proposed /Desigreed Non -Department Store DSTM Space $391 $127 $20.3 $24.1 832fi $362 ($Millions) 29% 29% 29% 32% 33% 33% Average lNloa $317 549.7 858.8 $67.9 $137 $19.5 A. TOTAL REQUIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS O. TOTAL NON - DEPARTMENT STORE RESIDUAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $320 $44.9 $53.1 $64.36 $84.3 $100.86 IET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL POTENTIAL FOR EXISTING /OTHER FUTURE PROPOSED SPACE (4 $0.3 none none none a,�.o :XISTING CLARINGTON NON -DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE: Sales from Cladngton Residents ($ Millions) Imcio ire ada'I *odua0 $714 $717 $66.6 $657 $678 Sal 0 $923 Less: Sales Required from Existing Cladrigfon DSTM Slays for Can. T' Table 1 -D -f (3)) $0.0 $0.0 E0.0 $0.0 EO0 E00 $0.0 rre "pa bleed e e Less: Sales Required from Existing Claington DSTM stores for proposed Hane)"W.. Centres (see Table 2- D -1(s)) $0.0 $1.9 Net Sales from Cladngtot Residents ($Millions) $71.4 $69.6 Plus: Estimated Infi w 32 3% (2 $34.1 $335 TOTAL SALES $105.5 $103.' Total Sq Ft GIA 460,900 460,900 460,900 460,900 460,900 45u,seU Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA(3 $230 $225 $205 $205 $210 $255 -2% -10% -11% -6% 12% Change in Trail Sal From Existing Level Spume: UrbsnMeMOS inc. 1) Based on the results of Me telephone cereumer survey (2003). 2) urbane etrics ft. estimate based M liceoce plate surveys and the loca0onAWe of proposed /existing space. 3) Rounded to the nearest the nearest $5 per square foot 4) E%duding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed. I Table 5 -D -1 (s) CLARINOTON SCENARIO D -1(s) DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE AN O IMPACTANALYSIS ($Millions Reposed Wal -Mart (Phase t and Phase 2 Expansion ) - Square Feet GIA 200 2005 - --2 07 2006 2009 201D 2M3 2016 larks ton 0 151,000 151,000 151,000 151,WD 151,000 Total Estimated Sales Volume Depanmenl Stan Expenditures $753 5819 $873 $102.8 $1M.7 $110.7 $118.9 $131.4 Claiington Share ( %)(1 - Clanngton Share ($) 170% 17.0% 17.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 5)0% 50.0% Less: Eflearm COmpalind, $12.8 $13.9 $14.9 $51.4 $53.4 $55.4 $59.5 $65.7 Residual Pdanlial from Clanngton Residents $12.8 $12.8 $128 $128 $128 $128 5128 $128 NIA $1.1 r $21 $38.6 $40.6 $42.6 $4 &7 $52.9 Reposed Wal -Mart (Phase t and Phase 2 Expansion ) - Square Feet GIA Wal -Mart Department Store Sales Per Square Fool 0 151,000 151,000 151,000 151,WD 151,000 Total Estimated Sales Volume $0 $400 5415 $430 $45D $500 Leas: Inflow® 30% (2 $00 $60A $fit] $54.9 W.0 $755 Total Sales Required from Cishrilt. Residents $0.0 $18.1 $188 $19.5 $204 $22] TOTAL RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CIARINGTON RESIDENTS $0.0 $42.3 $43.9 $45.4 $416 $52.8 Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clannglon Zeller $2.1 $38.6 $40.6 $42.6 NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER CLARINGTON PROPOSEO/OESIGNATED none $S.T $3.1 $2.8 $0.9 none SPACE $2.1 none none none None $0.1 E 151 INO CLARINGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE: Sales from Clarington Residents ($ M,sh,,a) $12.13 $149 $9.1 Less Sales Required frtvn Toafirg Clannl;d. Dept Store for Can Tire $9.5 $10.0 $119 $12.9 expansion (see Table 1- D -1 (s)) $00 $0.0 $0.0 50.0 $0.0 $00 $0.0 Less: Sales R$Quired from Exlslirg Clarmlgtpn Dept store fwproposed Home Imp. Centres(see Table2- D -0(s)) $00 $0.2 $02 $01 50.2 $02 2 Net Sales from Clanng(on Residents ($Millions) $128 $14.7 $8.9 Plus: Estimatedlnfluv30% (2 $5.5 $9.3 $9.8 $11.7 $12.7 TOTALSALES - $163 $6.3 $3.8 g4.0 $42 E50 $5A Total Sq Et OLA $21.0 $127 $13.3 $14.0 $167 $ta.t Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 80,000 5205 8$200 8$135 8$100 9$145 8$175 8$100 Change in TOTAL Sales Fran Existing Levels E27 S1$$ $140 E145 S1]5 5180 ]% J49. -32% Source: urnanMetna inc. 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003). 2) Inflow estimated based on the results ot the Gconce plate survey conducted in 2003 at Clarington Centre, 3) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square feel gross lessens, area 4) Exduding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyaed. SCENARIO Del (s) DEPARTMENT STORE ANALYSIS Depadmenl Store Share of TOTAL DSTM Wal -Marl Sales Per Square FOOT Scorer. 0.1 (.) Clanngtm Share Ze9em Sales Per Square Fad Sensitwily Teals. Claringlm Share Zellers Sales Per Square Foot Clanngtm Share Zellers Sales Per Square Foot Fellers - A;emge Salm Per Sglare Foot Canada 2002 S 190 2003 $ 159 2001 5 156 Swan: Bandm HW 20W Am�e1 Fmoarc lReWd SOURCE: urbanldstnas tm 2003 2D09 2009 2010 2913 2019 26.5% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 299 29.0% $400 $415 5430 3450 5500 17% 50% 50% 50% '.A% 50% $205 $135 $140 5145 $175 $190 17% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51% $205 5150 $155 $165 $190 $210 17% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% S2D5 $165 $170 $160 $210 5230 TABLES -D -1161 CLARINOTON SCENARIO D -1 s: NON - DEPARTMENT STORE OSTM IMPACT ANALYSIS ' Total Support Rom %Can, in Clarmalon %Distribution Sailer SO. TOTAL bales 2003 Dollars Resfd.nb(1 - Cladnoon Plus lneow(2 TOTAL SALES SN.FL Foot lo.arr aling (SMlllions) (Ear) ISMillians) ROWidsd ' -NO3 BowmanWlle Urban Area a, Eat Men Leeanlenla - Bowmen lie Mall $21.3 302% 250% $364 67,600 $540 Owar OMa2paps,Welp East Main Central $112 151% 250% 8$93 108,009 $140 - Cl. Bmvmanvi9e Well Main CenlralArea - LladrNmn Centro $6.5 9.1% 30.0% 893 $335 OOer Boaan.aih 543 60% 15.0% 55.1 12.300 42 $120 Total SowmanWOe 54D3 690% 250% 3657 243800 3270 Weslcbusatnn - Trial Wear Cer Tof a' We st Cl adrpron, nclWng COUrtde and Former DarOngton TP 5167 2].4% 50.0% $33.4 180,700 165 East Clarinalon T7% 150% 65 36,600 $160 Total East Clsa,,; n, InWtling Newcastle Vllage. Ororm, Former Clad, TP E55 TOTAL CLARINGTON $71.5 100.0% 323% $10516 400,900 $230: TOTAL OUTSIDE $1373 ' TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS $200.8 Bowmanv6tr Urban Area BViverB.le Eat Main Central Arta - BOwmanWlle Mail S246 21.5% 25.0% $32.8 67,600 $165 -10% OMer BOwmanelst East Main Central Area 59.9 67% 250% 8$82 106,000 $125 -11% ' Bowmanviln West Main LenbalArea - Cnnngbn CmVe $56 30.0% $82 27]00 $295 -12% OPer Eammam4le 839 30% 14%, 15.0% gd6 42,300 8110 -10% Total BonmanvMe - $461 30.6% 249% 550.8 243,E00 $240 -11% Totali West ChrrWas[ClarinMm Taal West Llad,glm, lncNrdhg COUrtce end Forma Darlxgton TP 515.3 134% 500% 8306 160,700 ' East ci.6.aon TotlEssl Crawler, imlad ig Nexianthe valage, Oman. Former Clark TP S52 4.5% 15.0% 56.1 38.600 $165 -6% Sub- TObIExi50np 566.8 32.4X $9S5 460.a6a $205 -19% Pr000setlAezIpwled De"i lannmrn $19) 43.5% 29.0% $70.0 248,700 $280 as ' TOTALCLARINGTON(Net or Tranalen W He. lmpmv.) 1143 100. 30. $1 709,E0o 2 TOTAL OUTSIDE TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS (not of Transfan to Home lmpray.) $237.6 ' B.wnanWl East PrCe Oftm B vMle Eat Main L9lkal Area- Emxnanville Mal ONa Btlxma Main Mein Central Ares $249 $151 10.7% TS% 25.0% $33.3 $$84 67,60 10800 $195 $125 -9% -16% BovmanvNle West Main Central Area - Gadngnn Centre West E58 64% WO% 303% $8A 27.700 3305 -10% OtOerBw.manville $33 30% 15.0°h $a.6 42.300 ToWBoamawiee EM6 338% 21.9% 559.7 343.00 $245 -9% ' C,,,Vl Other West Chulpel rare wean Claringnn, In Asks course. anal FOmerDed"V. TP 155 116% Sou% 310 186.700 $170 -J% East Clari air, Total East Clark ear,k kr i Newcastle Village, Groro. Former Clark TP S52 39% 15.0% $6.2 38,600 $170 5% Sub- ToWEaisOng $0.6 32.3% $%9 460,000 $210 -6% Pr000satllDeiamletl 3va¢ n n C.fi.a $679 W.9% 324% 11100's 34670 $290 nor ' TOTAL CLAPoNGTON fNet of] ranters to Name lmprov4 _ $133.5 1006% 32.4% FWT.4 809,600 - - $245.- TOTAL OUTSIDE 512] 7 TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS foal of Tnnslersto Home lmpnv.) $2562 2013 BowmanvllN Urban Ana BpwmanWlle East Main Denlydon"AnwmenWNe Mall $30.3 190% 25.0% $10.4 6T6m $60 11% ' Omer Bpar'!Wu a Eesl Main Area $$71 Bffb 25" $16.4 10,000 $155 10% v6k West Main Cemrel Area- Llamgbn Centre 57.1 11% 30.0% $1D.2 27,]00 8370 10% Offi.r Other vii@ 54.0 3.t% 150% 556 42.30 $130 10% Total Bommen ib Torts 55d.6 35.6% 2! 9% $R.6 243,60 r,GUrO¢IOlhsr West Cla'notan Total Weal Cladraw, ncluding Lourtice arrd Former DarNnglon TP $18.0 12.3% 50.0% $37.6 185700 $240 13% East Clatinoten Total East Clarirglon, la ding Mosaosi Village, Ororm. Former Clark TP $63 4.1% 153% $76 36.60 S.DT,Nwauvry $79.7 322% 117.6 460,900 255 11% Pr000setllOeslsoul SOa¢ In Clarinat $737 460% 329% $109.9 30..70 $no nor TOTAL CLARINGTON INN 0 Transfers 1. Hama Imams.) $153A 1(50% 3 6% $227.5. W4,600- $275 TOAL OUTSIDE 5135.3 TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS (neat of Transom 1. Hone Imams.) $2607 SOURCE: urbanMelrksinc. 1) Based on tele ii ene consumer survey. 2) urbanMetras estimates basetlon 5esnee dale ark intercept survey results. Table T - 0 -1(6) i88 Sales from Cknnglee Residents (S Millions) (inNuclleg eclat rest CLARINGTON �,�. g84 $190 8196 $237 plus: EsSmakdlMlow ®19.8 %(4 SCENARIO D -1(s) $92.9 $958. E99.1 $100.0 E1183 TOTAL SALES $956 iT7,100 17/,100 SUPERMARNETWARRANTEO SPACE ANALYSIS $Millions 17Tp00 RTNo 17$615 17$60( Total Sq Ft GLA $545 1013 2018 $640 2003 2805 2807 2008 2009 2810 -3.9% 41.9% - 2003 Dollars 12.6% 22.55 Change in Total Set" From Exisgrg Level Clarinolon E1156 $123.5 5127A $133.0 $137.0 $141.0 51523 750% $164.4 75.0% Supermarket Expenditure Peters' (b MIlNOns) 66.9% 750% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 81 Clarington share ( %) (1 $77.5 592.6 595.6 $99.8 8102.8 $105.6 $$775 ER.S $775 Cknrgton Share (EI a IS) $77.5 $775 $T/5 E77.5 $77, $77.5 $370 545.8 Less: ERectiha i0n WA 815.1 518.1 $22.3 525.3 Y28.3 Resdual Potential from Clanngton Residents LOMaws - RelecatiO EVW$ionm Me" Sit. - (atldtional traditional foed oouponenq SaleslS, FL GIA Total ABdieonal Sales Less: hlflo+v @ (2 10% Total Sales Required from CladgtW Residents Expansion of A &P, Bovmarnift Mal Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA Total Additimal Sales Less: Inf w ®(2 10% Total Sales Required irm Garington Residents TOTAL SALES REQUIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS Total Residual Sales Polmlial AVailabW from Ckringtm Residents Saks Transfers Required hm Existing Clann,,wn Sucemlar,rds Net Additional Reeidoel Potential Available for Other Sucermarkets 0 35,300 35,300 35,300 35,300 s0 $475 $480 $465 $500 $0.0 $16.8 $16.9 $17.1 $177 24,900 24,900 24,900 24,900 24,600 5450 $455 5460 5485 5500 $11.2 811.3 $12.0 $12.1 $125 $10.1 $253 $26.0 $26.3 821.1 52&, $18.1 $22.3 $25.3 $28.3 $370 $45, EXISTING CLARINGTON SUPERMARXET SPACE: i88 Sales from Cknnglee Residents (S Millions) (inNuclleg eclat rest $19; �,�. g84 $190 8196 $237 plus: EsSmakdlMlow ®19.8 %(4 $108.6 $92.9 $958. E99.1 $100.0 E1183 TOTAL SALES $956 iT7,100 17/,100 171,100 17Tp00 RTNo 17$615 17$60( Total Sq Ft GLA $545 $600 6526 $640 5660 5616 5670 Existing Sales Par Square Feet GIA(3 10.3% -3.9% 41.9% - 26% 12.6% 22.55 Change in Total Set" From Exisgrg Level SOURCE: urbanMetriM m- 1) Year 2003 based on the results of the leleohone awv 2) urbanNlelrim Inc. estimate. 3) Founded to the nearest S5 cer souare foot results and teleptwne surrey results. 41 urbanMetrics imeagnate based co the ficence Plate survey Im m = = = - = m m = m i i = = = i = m 1 \ m n.nrrc. r.nEU uxY r . w..EMS iulxo�ru°YOOm. w.'rEi"'M is i�EIEI .r wttlnE. +Eno Es .Eau+.r r . v.n .cM+ pJI1DNE MEl tl4.Y .f 1.!!1 IYttYEl. lilGl.11, 14YT001 MME. gipypER ry1 EM EY".n+lo o E. E . M eu. Is.U1EEY1 v.w.o r..lawu .mu eln aw+ tw� e n . a.a aclE. ewm n. .evwe.l -� • a _ Unti ➢JIIL�\ N9 CONCEPTUAL PLAN NOT FOR CONSTRUCTION a r II Handouts from July 15, 2005 Special Council Meeting 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I Memorandum Report Clarington Commercial Policy Review Supplementary Market Analysis Scenario D -1 (s) Prepared for: Municipality of Clarington nMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors 144-146 Front Street West, Suite 460 Toronto, ON NSJ 2L7 urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors MEMORANDUM 144 -146 Front Street West, Suite 460 Toronto, ON, M5J 217 416- 351 -8585 Toll Free 1- 800 -505 -8755 (416) 345 -8586 (fox) w .urbonnneirics.ca To: Mr. David Crome, Municipality of Clarington From: Doug Annand, Lynne Davidson Date: July 14, 2005 Subject: Commercial Policy Review - Joseph Urban Consultants Memorandum, June 9, 2005, Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, Letter from Mr. Stan Stein to Clarington, June 15, 2005 and Goodmans LLP, Letter from Ms. Roslyn Houser to Clarington, June 13, 2005 Newcastle IGA, Letter from Tenzin Gyaltsan, June 9, 2005 As requested by the Municipality of Clarington, urbanMetrics inc. has provided our comments with respect to the following correspondence received by the Municipality in response to the Clarington Commercial Policy Review and the Addendum Market Analysis, dated May 9, 2005 prepared by urbanMetrics inc.: • Joseph Urban Consultants, Memorandum to the Municipality of Clarington on behalf of Zellers inc, June 9, 2005 • Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, Letter to the Municipality of Clarington on behalf of Zellers inc., June 15, 2005 • Goodmans LLP, Letter to the Municipality of Clarington on behalf of West Diamond Properties Inc. and Players Business Park Ltd. (`West Diamond "), June 13, 2005 • Newcastle IGA, Letter to the Municipality of Clarington, June 9, 2005 Joseph Urban Consultants Memorandum ( "Joseph ") ' Joseph has provided a number of comments with respect to our Addendum Report Scenario D -1 analysis and the implications for existing retailers, with a focus on the Zellers in Clarington Centre. The following summarizes our response. urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 I urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors I ' • Department Store Potential and Impact Department store share - Joseph has provided an analysis which assumes a higher department store share of DSTM than utilized by urbanMetrics in our Scenario D -1 analysis. It is our opinion that the department store share utilized by urbanMetrics for this scenario, which increases from an estimated existing level of 26.5% to 29 %, is realistic as it recognizes that despite the addition of the Wal -Mart, over 400,000 square feet of non- department store DSTM is included in Scenario D -1, which is far in excess of the Wal -Mart space proposed. The affect of this large amount of non - department store DSTM space offsets any significant increase in the department store share assumed by Joseph. Inflow - The inflow figure of 30% utilized by urbanMetrics inc. for the Wal -Mart is based on the existing inflow for the Zellers, as determined from the licence plate survey data conducted at the Clarington Centre. With additional regional serving space added to the Bowmanville West area, the area has the potential to draw more dollars from outside Clarington, including visitors and employees who work in the area. Therefore, we have no reason to assume that the inflow factor would be reduced. Impacts - In our Scenario D -1 analysis, to determine the impact of the Phase 2 expansion of Wal -Mart on Zellers, it was tested with a first full year of opening in 2008. Based on the resulting sales performance levels for the Zellers, we recommended a first full year opening of the Phase 2 expansion be delayed until 2010 to minimize impacts. ' • Non - Department Store DSTM ( "Specialty DSTM ") Potential & Impact Non - Department Store DSTM Share - For the reasons stated above, we support our 71 % future forecast of the non - department store DSTM share of total DSTM based on the space assumptions in Scenario D- 1. Inflow - The forecast average inflow levels are based on existing inflow levels in Bowmanville and Courtice, as determined from empirical research, applied to the proposed space. It should be noted that in Courtice, a higher inflow level (based on the results of the Courtice licence plate survey) was utilized ' for the space in the Courtice Main Central Area, which results in the higher overall 33% inflow figure for Clarington as a whole. H u Impacts - As a worst case scenario, most of the proposed non - department store DSTM space was introduced with a first full year opening in 2007 in Scenario D -1. The results of our analysis indicated that some phasing would therefore be required to minimize impacts. Recognizing that a significant amount of space included in our analysis for 2007 will not likely be developed until after 2007 and/or will be phased, we have carried out a sensitivity analysis in the later part of this memorandum that assesses changes to our assumptions (supplementary analysis Scenario D -1 (s)). urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 ' urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors r-^ • Market Projections vs Proposed Retail Floorspace Joseph states that urbanMetrics has made aggressive assumptions of outflow recovery (i.e. recapture) and inflow sales opportunities. We would consider our recapture assumptions as conservative. Clarington residents are currently making 65.8% of their specialty DSTM purchases, which equates to $137.4 million, outside of Clarington. Therefore, only 34.2% of Clarington residents' specialty DSTM expenditures are currently made in Clarington. In the future, we have estimated in Scenario D -1 that this share would increase to 53.5% with over 400,000 square feet of additional non - department store DSTM space added to the Clarington market. In our opinion, the capture levels used in our analysis are still below what we would consider normal capture rates for a community the size of Clarington. Although we would agree that the forecast growth in population can be considered modest, as indicated by Joseph, the fact that Clarington residents' are not well served with retail facilities in their community is ' the major issue. There is a significant opportunity to recapture a large portion of outflow sales with the development of regional scale retail facilities in Clarington that will effectively compete with retail facilities in other municipalities, such as Oshawa and Whitby. As a future planned integrated /urban community with strong retail areas, Clarington will have the ability to stem a large portion of this current outflow. On a geographic sub - sector basis, based on the results of the telephone survey (urbanMetrics inc./Tate Economic Research Background Report), Bowmanville Urban Area residents are currently making 56% of their non - department store DSTM expenditures outside of Clarington with those in West Clarington (including Courtice and the former Darlington Township) making about 82% outside. For East Clarington residents (including Newcastle Village, Orono, and former Clarke Township) over 50% of these expenditures are made outside. East Clarington residents are actually by- passing retail facilities in Bowmanville in favour of new format and regional retail facilities in Oshawa, Whitby and Ajax. With new retail facilities offered in Clarington, significant opportunity exists to intercept outflow sales, and particularly those occurring from Bowmanville and East Clarington residents. Our forecast Clarington share assumptions recognize that approximately 60% of the population in Clarington is comprised of Bowmanville and east Clarington (including Newcastle Village, Orono, and former Clarke Township). The remaining 40% includes west Clarington (i.e. Courtice and the former Darlington Township). Given the close proximity of Oshawa, this west portion of the municipality is considered more likely to continue to ' shop for a large portion of their non - department store DSTM expenditures outside of Clarington. With the additional non - department store DSTM space added to the Clarington market, we believe that ' outflow will decline to 46.5% with an average of some 53.5% spent locally in Clarington, which is still a conservative estimate. The derivation of the average forecast factor of 53.5 %, as utilized in Scenario D- 1 for the years 2007 to 2016 was based on our review of expenditure characteristics on a geographic sub- sector basis as follow: 11 urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors • Bowmanville - estimated at 39% of the Clarington non - department store DSTM expenditure potential, with an existing Clarington share of 44% estimated to increase to the 70% range by 2007 • West Clarington — estimated at 43% of the Clarington non - department store DSTM expenditure ' potential, with an existing Clarington share of 18% estimated to increase to about 25% by 2007 • East Clarington — estimated at 18% of the Clarington non - department store DSTM expenditure potential, with an existing Clarington share of 50% estimated to increase to about 75% by 2007 We note that even by 2007, the application of a 53.5% average Clarington share still results in a significant outflow of non - department store DSTM sales from Clarington at $113.2 million, increasing to $149.6 million by 2016. • Orderly Department Store Expansion ' Joseph indicates that they "do not see the necessity to strengthen the department store anchor capability of the municipality for another five years ". We see this statement as an attempt to limit the introduction of Wal -Mart into the community purely on the basis of restricting competition and protecting the market share of Zellers; a store which is performing significantly above the Zellers industry average (i.e. the Clarington Zellers performing at an estimated $205 per square foot in 2003 compared to Zellers' Canadian average of $158 per square foot in 2003). Our telephone survey indicates that residents of ' Clarington are already shopping at Wal -Mart in other Durham Region municipalities and therefore the addition of a Wal -Mart in Clarington will provide a more convenient location. Wal -Mart is also considered by urbanMetrics as a key store that will improve the recapture of outflow sales and an important anchor tenant for Bowmanville West that will help attract other retail development and improve the level of retail service for residents. • Orderly Specialty DSTM Expansion Although the orderly approach to developing other retail facilities in Clarington is important, the Joseph ' phasing plan must be viewed in the context of the likelihood of other retail projects included in our Scenario D -1 analysis and their realistic timing of entry into the market. A sensitivity analysis which includes revised phasing assumptions has been included in this memorandum report. • Lack of Directional Impact Analysis In our Addendum report of May 9, 2005, urbanMetrics was only asked by the Municipality and the Region to test the directional impacts with the AYT application included. Recognizing this concern, we have provided a directional impact analysis in this memorandum report based on our supplementary scenario (Scenario D -1 (s)) which evaluates different phasing assumptions than utilized in our Scenario D -1. urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 4 I I 11 urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors Osler. Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, Wal -Mart Sales Performance Levels Mr. Stein has indicated that the sales performance levels utilized by urbanMetrics for the proposed Wal- Mart Clarington are too low by $100 per square foot (we have assumed $400 per square foot in 2008, increasing to $500 per square foot by 2016, expressed in 2003 dollars in our supplementary Scenario D- 1 (s)) and Scenario D -1 in our Addendum report). Mr. Stein has utilized the Guelph OMB decision as the basis for his conclusion. We note that at the public meeting he initially quoted $405 per square foot for the Guelph settlement but later revised this figure to a much higher figure based on the Guelph OMB decision dated July 25, 2003. Although we are aware of the Guelph decision, it is our opinion that the characteristics of each market must be taken into account, including the proximity to other Wal -Mart competition and other factors, such as store size. Based on our knowledge of Wal -Mart sales, they do vary by location, reflecting different market characteristics. We note that Clarington has a current population of some 80,000 persons that are not geographically centred (i.e. in a number of urban areas and dispersed villages), whereas the City of Guelph has a concentrated urban population of some 125,000 persons with at least some 200,000 persons in its trading area. Therefore, there is no reason that the expected Wal -Mart sales in Clarington would be as high as those assumed in Guelph. Goodmans Based on our review of the Goodmans response and discussions with the Municipality, we have prepared a supplementary analysis (Scenario D -1 (s) with additional years added), based on Scenario D -1 in our Addendum report) that tests the following new phasing in store size assumptions as outlined in the Goodman's letter: • West Diamond Centre — all space built with a first full year of operation in 2008, including the Wal- Mart (revised size of 151,000 square feet based on input from Goodmans) and Loblaws (Phase 1 and 2). • Clarington Centre expansion — potential expansion of the existing Loblaws space for non -food uses ' delayed to 2016 • Clarington Centre Loblaws retenanting — 40,000 square feet of non - department store DSTM space rather than the 50,400 square feet assumed in our Scenario D -1 to delete mezzanine space and to ' allow for other non - retail uses; first full year of operation 2009 Torgan Site — due to floodplain issues, a reduction in the non - department store DSTM floor space from 75,000 square feet to 65,000 square feet ' Loblaws — Non - Department Store DSTM merchandise in the new store — revision from the 21,300 square feet tested in our Scenario D -1 to 30,000 square feet with a first full year in 2008 • Courtice Main Central Area — phased in space over the longer term We would agree with Goodman's that it is highly unlikely that all the non - department store DSTM space built into our Scenario D -1 analysis will have a first full -year of operation in 2007. Our Scenario D -1 was r urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 1 11 J J [1 Based on the results of our Scenario D -1 (s) analysis, impacts in the non - department store DSTM category will be reduced to levels that are not expected to affect planned function (declines of 10% in 2008, 8% in 2010, with recovery to above existing levels after 2010). Higher sales declines are expected for stores in the Bowmanville Urban Area (average of 11 % decline) with lower sales declines elsewhere in Clarington. In the department store category, the existing Zellers can expect to experience declines in sales performance of some 34% in 2008, although the resulting sales performance level of $135 per square foot is not expected to result in store closure recognizing that the existing average performance level for Zellers stores in Canada is $154 per square foot in 2004. As a sensitivity test, we note that if the Clarington share for the department store category is increased from 50% (as utilized in Scenario D -1 and D -1(s) to 51 % or 52% respectively, sales per square foot for the existing Zellers would only decline in 2008 to $150 and $165 per square foot respectively. This illustrates the sensitivity of the shares utilized. Newcastle IGA, Supermarket Issue The owner of the Newcastle IGA has raised a number of issues with respect to the food store market in Clarington. Based on our review of these issues, we offer the following comments: • According to the Municipality, the A &P in Bowmanville Mall has recently made an application to expand their store to 52,700 square feet. This represents an expansion of 24,900 square feet. At the time of our initial market analysis, this application did not exist. We have addressed this expansion and potential impacts in our supplementary market analysis as provided in this memorandum (Table 7-D-1 (s)). Based on our recapture assumption (i.e. existing Clarington share increasing from 66.9% to 75% in future years), with the proposed Loblaws (net traditional food component) and A &P expansion, average sales for existing Clarington supermarkets would decline from the current average performance level of $545 per square foot to $525 per square urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 0 urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors intended as a "worst case' scenario, while Scenario D -1 (s) has been provided in this memorandum to recognize that there will be some natural phasing of commercial facilities. t In addition to Scenario D -1(s) phasing assumptions, a number of modifications were also made to the department store share of DSTM and the Clarington share as follows: • A department store share of 30% in 2008 declining to 29% (as utilizing in Scenario D -1) over the study period recognizing the reduction in the proposed non - department store space evaluated in the short term • Clarington share for non - department store DSTM of 42.5% in 2007, increasing to 53.5% in 2010 (a figure of 53.5% was utilizing over the entire study period for Scenario D -1) to recognize the phasing and reduction in total non - department store DSTM space analyzed. 1 11 J J [1 Based on the results of our Scenario D -1 (s) analysis, impacts in the non - department store DSTM category will be reduced to levels that are not expected to affect planned function (declines of 10% in 2008, 8% in 2010, with recovery to above existing levels after 2010). Higher sales declines are expected for stores in the Bowmanville Urban Area (average of 11 % decline) with lower sales declines elsewhere in Clarington. In the department store category, the existing Zellers can expect to experience declines in sales performance of some 34% in 2008, although the resulting sales performance level of $135 per square foot is not expected to result in store closure recognizing that the existing average performance level for Zellers stores in Canada is $154 per square foot in 2004. As a sensitivity test, we note that if the Clarington share for the department store category is increased from 50% (as utilized in Scenario D -1 and D -1(s) to 51 % or 52% respectively, sales per square foot for the existing Zellers would only decline in 2008 to $150 and $165 per square foot respectively. This illustrates the sensitivity of the shares utilized. Newcastle IGA, Supermarket Issue The owner of the Newcastle IGA has raised a number of issues with respect to the food store market in Clarington. Based on our review of these issues, we offer the following comments: • According to the Municipality, the A &P in Bowmanville Mall has recently made an application to expand their store to 52,700 square feet. This represents an expansion of 24,900 square feet. At the time of our initial market analysis, this application did not exist. We have addressed this expansion and potential impacts in our supplementary market analysis as provided in this memorandum (Table 7-D-1 (s)). Based on our recapture assumption (i.e. existing Clarington share increasing from 66.9% to 75% in future years), with the proposed Loblaws (net traditional food component) and A &P expansion, average sales for existing Clarington supermarkets would decline from the current average performance level of $545 per square foot to $525 per square urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 0 urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors foot in 2008. These sales levels are both considered significantly above typical industry norms and therefore no critical sales impacts are expected. A full recovery to above existing levels would occur by 2010, with at least $17 million of additional residual sales potential available for new supermarkets facilities in Clarington by 2016. • Based on discussions with the municipality, they have only heard rumors of Sobey's opening a store in Bowmanville. There has been no application to date. • Based on correspondence we have received from Aird & Berlis, the legal counsel for Loblaws, the existing Loblaws store will be retenanted for non -food store uses. Loblaws has complete control over this site and there is no lease clause which states that the building must be a grocery store. We note, however, that the existing zoning by -law requires that the Clarington Centre have a supermarket. Based on discussions with Steven Zakem of Aird & Berlis, an application ' has been made to amend the zoning by -law to allow other uses for the Clarington Centre Loblaw property and therefore to remove the requirement for a supermarket. ' • We are fully aware of the merchandise overlap between various store types. For the proposed Loblaws, the non -food store merchandise was analyzed separately as it represents a significant component of this store. Recognizing that other food stores in the Clarington market do not ' include significant non -food store merchandise, this methodology is considered appropriate in evaluating sales impacts on existing local food stores. However, for department stores, other general merchandise stores and other retailers, we have not extracted the potential food ' component and analyzed this separately, although it is recognized that there will be some overlap with other retailers, including supermarkets. We note that a large portion of the sales support for the proposed Wal -Mart would be available from the transfer of sales already made in existing Wal -Mart stores and other DSTM stores with food store related merchandise. Therefore, the magnitude of the impact on food stores would be difficult to ascertain. We note, however, that based our supplementary supermarket analysis, as detailed in Table 7-D-1 (s), even with the Loblaws expansionlrelocation and A &P expansion, the existing stores could withstand additional sales transfers as a result of the addition of food store related merchandise being offered in Wal- Mart or other DSTM stores offering food merchandise.. ' Conclusions In conclusion, and recognizing the various phasing and size assumptions discussed above, our ' supplementary analysis would suggest that phasing of the Wal -Mart and Loblaws on the West Diamond site is not required if their first full year of operation is delayed until 2008. However, in order to minimize potential impacts on Clarington retail facilities, and specifically downtown Bowmanville, it may be prudent ' for Clarington to structure the West Diamond zoning by -law to ensure that Wal -Mart and Loblaws do not open prior to 2007. urbanMetrics inc., Memorandum, June 23, 2005 I [ -] Table 1 -D- 1 (s) CLARINGTON SCENARIO D-1 (s) HOME AND AUTO WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions 2003 Dollars 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 Clarinaton $16.1 $168 $17.5 $18.3 $205 $225 Leas: Sales RaquUed from Existing GbMrgton H & A Stores W Home Home& Auto Expenditure Potential $20.5 $22.4 $23.8 $247 $25.7 $268 $296 $324 Clarington Share (%) (1 76.5% 80.0% 80r09i- 1190% 9949& r *Kft' _ $15.3 '1411 $ Clarington Share l$) $15.7 $17.9 $19.0 $19.8 $20.6 $214 $23.T $25.9 Less: Effective Competition _ .. ._ ... _. .. ..__._ $15.7 .u. $15.7 :oo $15.7 xaa $157 ¢er $15.7 aeo $157 -I $15.7 CAn $153 %in2 Square Feet GIA Ejx mien Salami Ft. GIA Total Sales Volume Less: InA.@ 30% (2 Total Sales Required fmm Clarington Residents Total Home and Auto Residual Sales Potential Available from Clarington Residents Seem Transfers Required Morn Exislbg Clarington Stores Onduding Canadian Tire and OSTM stares) based on Available Residual 15,200 15,200 15,200 15,200 15,200 $275 $285 $290 $295 $300 $4.2 $43 S4.4 $45 $4.6 �- $3.3 $4.1 $4.9 S5] $8.0 $10.2 EXISTING CLARINGTON HOME A AUTO SPACE: Sales from Claringt9n Residents ($Millions)1-inng son revamp $15.7 $16.1 $168 $17.5 $18.3 $205 $225 Leas: Sales RaquUed from Existing GbMrgton H & A Stores W Home Improvement Ganeas I. Tads 2-0 1(a)) $0.0 $0.8 $0.9 S19 $0.8 $110 $0.9 Net Sales lore ClaMgton Residents $15.7 $15.3 $15.9 $16.6 $1T5 $19.5 $21.6 Plus: Estimated Indoor 30% (2 $fi] We $6.6 $7.1 $7.5 $8.4 $93 TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES (Canadian Tire) $22.4 $21.9 $22.7 523.7 $25.0 $27.9 $3019 ToW Sq Ft ETA 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 74,600 Exist., Sales Per Square Feet GLA(4 $300 $295 $305 $320 $335 $375 $415 Ci a in Toml Sales From Existin Level -2.5% 1.3% 5.7% 11.5% 24.2% 37.6 Source urbenMetnrsinc. 1) Based an Me paeans of Ilea telephone consumer survey for Canadian Tire Sloom only 2) urbair......stories, 3) E¢Wdim any addMonel maiduall orential required Men other store tri analyeed. 4) R rrdel to the marest$5, square and GIA. Table 2 - D. 1 (s) CLARINGTON SCENARIO D -1 (s) ' HOME IMPROVEMENT (HI) STORE WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions. 2003 Dollars 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2016 ' Clarinaton Home Improvement Store Expenditure Potential $18.1 $19.6 $21.2 $221 $226 $236 $262 $28.8 Clarington Share ( %)(1 123% 650% 811.8$$ ?: $0:-0% . =9@," = Aft d ; =a _ , III Clarington Share ($) $2.2 $12.7 $170 $17.7 $18.1 $18.9 $21.0 $23.0 Less: Effective Competition $22 $22 $22 $2.2 $2.2 $2.2 $2.2 $2.2 ' Residual Potential from Clarington Residents NIA $10.5 $14.8 $15.5 $15.9 $167 $18.8 $20.8 PROPOSED HOME IMPROVEMENT SPACE A Valiant - Home Depot - Square Feet GLA 83,900 83,900 83,900 53,900 83,900 83,900 Sales/Sq. Ft. GIA $230 $240 $245 $250 $260 $280 Total Sales Volume $193 $20.1 $20.6 $21.0 $21.8 $23.5 Lass: WholesalelConlractor Trade Q30% (2 $5.8 $6.0 $6.2 $6.3 $6.5 $7.1 Less: lnflow @(2 30% (2 $41 S4.2 $4.3 $4.4 $4.6 $4.9 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $9.4 $93 $10.1 $10.3 $10.7 $11.5 B. Torgan - Rana - Square Feet GIA 76,/00 76AN 751 76AN 94,700 aiijoo Sel"Sq. Ft. GLA $23D $240 $245 $250 $260 $280 Total Sales Volume $17.6 $18.3 $18.7 $191 $24 6 $26. Lass: Whdesale/Contractor Trade @30% (2 $5.3 35.5 $5.6 $57 $7.4 58.0 Less: Inflow ® (2 30% (2 $3.7 $3.8 $3.9 $4.0 $52 $5.6 ' Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $8.6 $8.0 $9.2 $9.6 512.0 312. TOTAL SALES REQUIRED FROM ClARINGTON RESIDENTS FOR A.8 S. $18.0 $18.9 $19.3 $19.7 $223 $24.4 Total Hl Residual Sales Potential AvallaWe from Clarington Residents $14.6 $155 $15.9 $16.7 $18.8 $20.8 Sales Transfers Required tram Existing Clarington Stores (including Home Improvement and ' DSTM) Based on Availafie Residual $3.2 $3A $3.4 $3.0 $3.9 $3.6 (2 Estimated Transfers from Existing HI Stores in Clarington 10% $0.3 S03 $0.3 $0.3 $0.4 $0.3 (2 Estimated Transfers from Non- Oapartrvenl Store OSTM 60% $1.9 $2.0 $2.0 $1,7 $2.3 $2.2 (2 Estlmated Translate from Department Store DSTM 5% $0.2 $02 $0.2 $02 $0.2 $0.2 ' (2 Estlmated Transfers from Canadian Tire 25% $0.8 $0.9 $0.9 $0.8 $1.0 $0.9 100% $a.2 $3A $14 $3.0 $3.9 Sate AVAILABLE none lane nore rone E)USTING CI.ARINGTON HI SPACE: Sees train Clanngton Residents ($ Millions) $2.2 $1.9 $1.9 $1.9 $19 $18 $19 I-.: Saiss Required from Exiahllg Clark fort HI Stares for HOnre 6 AUro Stores Omm Table 1- 0-f (.)) $0.0 $0.0 $00 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Sao Net Saes horn Clarington Residents $2.2 $1.9 $1.9 $1.9 $1.9 $1.8 $1.9 Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $0.9 $0.8 $08 S0.5 $0.8 $08 $0.8 ' TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES $3.1 $2.7 $27 S2.7 $2.7 $26 S2] Plus Wholesale Trade @ 30% $1.3 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.1 $1.2 GRAND TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES $4.5 $3.9 $3.9 $3.9 $3.9 $33 $3.9 Total Sq Ft GLA Fume lmprovemen9Lumuer stores only) 15,800 15,800 15,800 15,500 15.800 15,800 151800 Existing Sat" Per Square Feet GIA (4 $200 $170 $170 $170 $170 $165 $170 Change in Total Saes From Exishrsi Level -136% -13.6% -13.6% -13.6% -16.2% -136% Soume: uNaomeuosinc. 1) assert on the sauhe 0 ms elephone cnreumer saute, for name improvemem cemre stores only ' 2) sbarMetru Inc. estimate 3) Ei r, any additional residual pMen4al require] ham other store types analyred. 4) Round. to the naeresl$5 per square foot GLA. •-7 L! [1 1 1 C 1 1 Income Index To Province DSTM Index to Province Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (3 Population (From Table 1) Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions) Department Store Share Q (4 Department Store Share Potential ($Millions) Non- Department Store DSTM Share Q Nan - Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions) 99.40 Table 3 - D -1 (s) CLARNGTON DSTM EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENTS 2003 Dollars 2003 Province of Ontario Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (1 $3,594 Plus: Selected Wholesale (Computer /Office Supplies) (2 $100 Total Per Capita DSTM Expenditures $3,694 [1 1 1 C 1 1 Income Index To Province DSTM Index to Province Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (3 Population (From Table 1) Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions) Department Store Share Q (4 Department Store Share Potential ($Millions) Non- Department Store DSTM Share Q Nan - Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions) 99.40 99.64 $3,680 $3,790 $3,900 $3,955 $4,010 $4,065 $4,230 $4,400 77,200 81,500 84,910 86,600 88.700 90,800 96,900 103,000 $2841 $308.9 $331.1 $342.5 $355.7 $369.1 $409.9 $4512 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 29.0% 29.0% $75.3 $81.9 $87.7 $102.8 $106.7 $110.7 $118.9 $1314 73.5% 715% 73.5% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 71.0% 71.0% $208.8 $227.0 $243.4 $239.8 $249.0 $2584 $291.0 $321.8 Source: urbanMelrics inc. 1) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63 -005) and Monthly Retail Trade data. 2) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Wholesale Trade (special tabulation). 3) Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the DSTM regression equation of y = 40 +0.6(x) where x is the income index. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 1.5% per year (not compounded) 4) Estimated based an evaluation of the survey results, the provincial average and knowledge of the local market. U 1 1 1 11 I 0 I I I Table 4. 0-1 (s) CLARINGTON SCENARIO D - 1 (s) NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS (S Millions) 2003 Dollars 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2016 Clarinaton 46,800 46,800 46,800 46,800 Sales /Sq. Ft. GLA $0 $310 Non - Department Store DSTM Potential ($Millions) $208.8 $227.0 $243.4 $239.8 $249.0 $2684 $291.0 $321.8 Ciarington Share ( %) (1 34.2% 34.2% 42.5% 48.5% 50.0% 52.5% 53.5% 53.5% Clarington Sham (S) $71.4 $77.6 $103.4 $116.3 $124.5 $135.7 $155.7 $172.2 Less: Effective Competition $71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71A $71.4 $71.4 $71.4 $71.4 Residual Potential from Clanngton Residents NIA $6.2 $32.0 $44.9 $53.1 $64.3 $84.3 $100.8 HIED NON - DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE West Diamond & Players Loblaws DSTM ComponentiOther Ancillan, DSTM Space 0 46,800 46,800 46,800 46,800 Sales /Sq. Ft. GLA $0 $310 $315 $320 $335 Total Sales Volume $0.0 $14.5 $147 $15.0 $157 Less: Inflow @ 30% (2 $0.0 $4.4 54.4 $4.5 54.7 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $0.0 $101 $10.3 $10.5 $11.0 West Diamond & PI - Loblaws ExpansionlRelocation Ins me DSTM) 0 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $0 $310 $315 $320 $335 Total Sales Volume $0.0 $9.3 $9.5 $9.6 $10.1 Less: Inflow @ 30% (2 $0.0 $2.8 $2.9 $2.9 $3.0 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $0.0 $6.5 $6.6 $6.7 $7.1 Clarinaton Place Expansion 81,900 81,900 81,900 81,900 81,900 Sales /Sq. Ft. GLA $275 $285 $290 $295 $310 Total Sales Volume $22.5 $23.3 $23.8 $24.2 $25.4 Less: Inflow @ 30% (2 $6.8 $7.0 $7.1 $7.3 $7.6 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $15.7 163 $16.7 $16.9 $17.8 Toraan 65,000 85,000 65,000 65,000 65,000 Sales /Sq. Ft. GLA $260 $270 $275 $280 $300 Total Sales Volume $16.9 $17.6 $17.9 $18.2 $19.5 Less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $5.1 $5.3 $54 $5.5 $5.9 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $11.8 $12.3 $12.5 $12.7 $13.6 CI ri at Contra - Loblaws Retenant'na /Fulum Expansion of Centre 0 0 40,000 40,000 40,000 SaleslSq. Ft. GLA $0 $0 $290 $295 $310 Total Sales Volume $0.0 $0.0 $11.6 $11.8 $12.4 Less: Inflow @ 30% (2 $0.0 $0.0 $3.5 $3.5 $3.7 Total Sales Required from Clannglon Residents $0.0 $0.0 $8.1 $8.3 $8.7 Other Bowmanville - Local Central Area 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 Sales /Sq. Ft. GLA $200 $210 $215 $220 $230 Total Sales Volume $3.0 53.2 $3.2 333 $3.5 Less: Inflow @ 15% (2 $0.5 $0.5 $0.5 $0.5 $0.5 Total Sales Required from Clarngton Residents $2.5 $2.7 $2.7 $2.8 $3.0 Valiant - Courtice Main Central Area 0 0 0 60,000 75,000 Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA $0 $0 $265 $270 $280 Total Sales Volume $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $16.2 $21.0 Less: Inflow@ 50% (2 $0.0 $0.0 $00 $8.1 $10.5 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $0.0 $0.0 $00 $8.1 $1115 Newcastle Village 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Sales /Sq. Ft. GLA $200 $210 $215 $220 $230 Total Sales Volume $2.0 $2.1 $2.2 $2.2 $2.3 Less: Inflow@ 15% (2 $03 $03 $03 $0.3 $03 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $1.9 $20 Table 4 - D - 1 (s) continued CLARINGTON SCENARIO D - 1 (a) NON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 2003 Dollars xee r Total Clarington - ProposedlPotantial Designated Non - Department Store DSTM Space (Net) 171,900 248,700 288,700 348,700 363,700 395,400 TOTAL SALES - Proposed /Designated Non - Department Store DSTM Space ($ Millions) $44.4 $70.0 $82.9 $100.5 5109.9 $129.4 Average Sales Par Square Feet - Proposed $260 $280 $285 $290 $300 $325 Less: TOTAL Wholesale Trade (if WMC) $0.0 S9.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Less: TOTAL ESTIMATED INFLOW SALES - ProposedlDesignated Non - Department Store DSTM Space ($Millions) $12.7 $20.3 $24.1 $32.6 $36.2 $42.3 Average Inflow 29% 29% 29% 32% 33% 33% A. TOTAL REQUIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS $317 549.7 $58.8 $67.9 $73.7 $87.1 B. TOTAL NON - DEPARTMENT STORE RESIDUAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $32.0 $44.9 $53.1 $64.3 $84.3 $100.8 TOTAL SALES TRANSFERS REQUIRED A. LESS B.) none $4.8 $5.7 $3.6 none none NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL POTENTIAL FOR EXISTING/OTHER FUTURE PROPOSED SPACE (4 $0.3 none none none $10.6 $13.7 EXISTING CLARINGTON NON - DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE: Sales from Clannglon Residents IS Millions)(irolumng add i residual) $71.4 $717 $66.6 $65.7 $67.8 $82.0 $85.1 Less: Sales Required from Existing C/annglon DSTM Stores for Can. Tins expansion (see Table 1 -D-1 (s)) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Less: Sales Required Own Existing C/anngfon DSTM stores for proposed Horne lmpr. Centres (see Table 2 -D4 (s)) $0.0 $1.9 $2.0 $2.3 $2.2 $2.3 $2.2 Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) $71.4 $69.8 $64.6 $63.4 $65.6 $79.7 $82.9 Plus: Estimated Inflow 32.3% (2 $34.1 $33.3 $30.8 $30.2 $31.3 $37.9 $39.6 TOTAL SALES $105.5 $103.1 $95.4 $93.6 $96.9 $117.6 $122.5 Total Sit Ft GLA 460,900 460,900 460,900 460,900 460,900 460,900 460,900 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 $230 $225 $205 $205 $210 $255 $265 Channa in Tindal Sales Fin. Existino Level -2% -10% -11% -8% 11% 16% Source: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003). 2) urbanMetrics inc. estimate based on licence plate surveys and the location0ype of proposed/exisling space. 3) Rounded to the nearest the nearest $5 per square foot. 4) Excluding any additional residual Potential required from other store types analyzed. j Table 5- D -1(a) CLARINGTON SCENARIO D - 1 (a) iffies, DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ($ Millions Proposed Wal -Mart (Phase 1 and Phase 2 Expansion) - Square Feet GLA Wal -Mart Department Store Sales Per Square Foot Total Estimated Sales Volume Less: Inflow @ 30% 12 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents L RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Zellers 9 CLARINGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE: 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2016 Clarington Home Imp. Cenfres (see Table 2 -00 (s)) $0.0 Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) $12.8 Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $5.5 TOTAL SALES $18.3 Department Store Expenditures $753 $81.9 $877 $102.8 $106.7 $110.7 $118.9 $131.4 Clarington Share ( %) (1 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% Clarington Share (S) 512.8 $13.9 $14.9 $51 4 $53.4 $55.4 $59.5 $65.7 Less: Effective Competition $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 Residual Potential from Clarington Residents NIA SiA r $2.1 $38.6 540.6 $42.6 $46.7 $52.9 Proposed Wal -Mart (Phase 1 and Phase 2 Expansion) - Square Feet GLA Wal -Mart Department Store Sales Per Square Foot Total Estimated Sales Volume Less: Inflow @ 30% 12 Total Sales Required from Clarington Residents L RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS Transfers Required from Existing Clarington Zellers 9 CLARINGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE: $9.1 Sales from Clarington Residents IS Millions) $12.8 Less: Sales Required from Existing Clarington Dept. Store for Can. Tire $12.9 expansion (see Table 1 -0-1 (s)) $0.0 Less: Sales Required from Existing Clarington Dept stone forpmposed $0.0 Home Imp. Cenfres (see Table 2 -00 (s)) $0.0 Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) $12.8 Plus: Estimated Inflow 30% (2 $5.5 TOTAL SALES $18.3 Total Sq Ft GLA 90,000 Existing Sales Per Square Feet GLA (3 $205 0 161.000 151,000 151,000 151,000 $0 $400 $415 $430 $450 $0.0 $60.4 $62.7 $1509 $68.0 none $3.7 $3.3 $2.8 $0.9 $2.1 none none none None $14.9 $9.1 $9.5 $10.0 $11.9 $12.9 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $14.7 $6.9 $9.3 $9.8 $11.7 $12.7 $6.3 $3.8 $4.0 $4.2 $5.0 $5.4 $21.0 $12.7 $13.3 $14.0 $16.7 $18.1 95,600 $220 95,600 $135 95,600 $140 95,600 $145 95,600 $175 95,60( $190 Source: urbanMetrics inc. 11 Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003). 2) Inflow estimated based on the results of the licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Clarington Centre. 3) Rounded to the nearest $5 per square foot gross leasable area. 4) Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed. SCENARIO D-1 (s) DEPARTMENT STORE ANALYSIS Department Store Share of TOTAL DSTM Wal -Mart Sales Par Square Foot Scenario D -1 (s) Clarington Share Zellers Sales Per Square Foot Sensifmity Tests: Clarington Share Zellers Sales Per Square Foot Clarington Share Zellers Sales Per Square Foot Zellers • Average Sales Per Square Fool Canada 2002 $ 160 2003 $ 158 2004 $ 154 Source: Bae on Hbc, 2001 Annual Finanaal Rapw SOURCE: urbanMetncs Inc. 2003 2008 2009 2010 2013 2016 26.5% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 29.0% 29.0% $400 $415 5430 $450 $500 17% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% $205 $135 $140 $145 $175 $190 17% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51% $205 $150 $155 $165 $190 $210 17% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% $205 $165 $170 $180 $210 $230 TABLE 6-D. I (a) CLARINGTON SCENARIO D -1(): NON43EPARTMENT STORE DSTM IMPACT ANALYSIS 2003 Dollars. ' 2007 Bovnnamllle Urba Tonal Support From % Change In Claringlon %Distribution Salssl Sq. TOTAL Sal" Residents (1 Caarington Plus Inflow (2 TOTAL SALES Sq.F4 Foot from Existing Bowmamille East Main Central Area - Bowmanvlle Mall $27.3 38.2% 25.0% $36.4 67,600 $540 Other BOwmanvilk East Main Central Area $112 15.7% 25.0% $14.9 106,003 $140 Bowmzmilo West Main Central Arse - Covington Centre $6.5 9.1% 30.0% $93 27,700 $335 ' Other Boamanville 54.3 6.0% 15.0% $51 42,300 -10% $120 Total fl..mille $493 69.0% 25.0% $65.7 243,600 $270 Courlim /Other West Clarinaton ' Total West ClsniVorn, Including Court. and Former Darlington TP East ClarinaWn Total East Clarirgton, Including 1,lewusa8e Wage, Orono, Former Clark TP TOTAL CLARINGTON TOTAL OUTSIDE TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONE Bowmanvll ®a Boamanville East Main Central Area - Bowmenville Mall Other Bowmanville East Main Central Area BovmianNlle West Main Central Area - Clanngton Centre IXher BowmanAlle Total Bowmanville I I C 1 L1 CourtiWOlher West Cladrwton Total West Cle ington, Indudrg Courdoa and Former Darlington TP East Clismaton Total East Cie rigton, Inducting Newcas0e Village, Orono, Former Clerk TP Suo-7ofal Exladng Pr000sedlDeslanaled Spa" In Clarinoton TOTAL CILUUNGTON (Net of Transfers to Home Improv.; TOTAL OUTSIDE TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS (W of Transient W Home Impro, Sowmanvll ®a Boamanville East Main Central Araa - Bowmanville Mall Other Bovnriamlo East Main Central Area Bc amanvilo West Main Central lees - Coringlan Centre Other Bowmamille Total Bowmadnoo Com oelOther West Clarinalon Total West rl oil ton, Including Coudice and Former Darlington TP East Cladnaton Taal East Garington, Including Newces0e Village, Orono, Former Clank TP Su&TOWIEXISOng ProaoseNDesianaled Soave In Cladnaton TOTAL CLARINGTON (Net of Transfers to Home Improv.; TOTAL OUTSIDE TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS (net of Transfers to Home Improv. Bovmllla Urban An w a Bom.mlamille East Main Central Area - 8ovananville Mall Other Bowmanvilo East Main Central Area Bowmamile West Main Central Area - Clanngton Centre Other Bowmamalle TIXeI Bowmanville CoulticNONer West Corinaton Total West Cladnglon, Indudng Court" and Former Darlington TP East Clarinalon Total East Clenrgfon, lndudng lee c 6e Village, Omno, Former Clad TP SW TObIEZISOng Pr000sed/Dulonated Space In Clarinaton TOTAL CLARINGTON (Nei of Transfers to Home Improv.; TOTAL OUTSIDE TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS (nut of Transfers to Home Improv. SWRCE: urbanblehics im, 1) Based on telephone consumer survey. 2) udlanMemm estimates based on licence plate and intercept survey results. $167 23.4% 50.0% $33.4 180,700 $185 $24.6 21.5% 250% $32.8 67,600 $485 -10% $9.9 87% 25.0% $132 106,000 $125 -11% $5.8 5.1% 30.0% $81 27,700 $295 -12% $3.9 3.4% 15.0% $4.6 42,300 $110 -10% $44.1 386% 24.9% $58.8 243,600 $240 -11% $15.3 13.4% 50.0% $30.6 180,700 $170 A% 5,2 4.5% 15.0% $6.1 36,600 $165 6% $64.6 32.4% $95.5 460,900 $205 -fOY. $497 43.5% 29.0% $70.0 248,700 $280 no $24.9 18.7% 25.0% $33.3 67,600 $495 -9% $10.1 7.5% 25.0% $13.4 106,000 $125 -10% $5.9 44% 30.0% $8.4 27,700 5305 -10% $3.9 3.0% 15.0% $4.6 42,300 $110 -10% .8 33.6% 249% $59,7 243,600 $245 -9% $15.5 116% 50.0% $310 180,700 $170 -7% $5.2 3.9% 15.0% $62 36,600 $170 -5% $65.6 323% $96.9 460,900 $210 -9% $67.9 50.9% 32.4% $100.5 346,700 $290 na 530.3 19.8% 25.0% $40.4 67,600 $600 11% $12.3 8.0% 25.0% $16.4 106.000 $155 10% $7.1 41% 30.0% $10.2 27,700 $370 10% 54.8 11% 15.0% $5.6 42.300 $130 10% SIBS 12.3% 50.0% $37.6 180,700 $210 13% 56.3 4.1% 15.0% $7.4 36,600 $200 14% $79.7 32.2% $117.6 460,900 255 11% $73.7 46.0% 32.9% $1099 363.700 $300 M I II 11 I Ll Ii 1 I II I I Table 7. D. I (s) $rS 585.5 $74.5 $76.8 $79.5 $87.4 $94.9 Plus: Estimated Inflow @19.8 %(4 CLARINGTON $21.1 $184 $19.0 $19.6 $21.6 $23.4 TOTAL SALES $96.6 SCENARIO D- I fel $92.9 $95.8 $99.1 $109.0 $118.3 Total Sq Ft GIA 177,100 177,100 SUPERMARKET WARRANTED SPACE ANALYSIS ($ Millions) 177,100 177,10 171,100 1TI,I00 Existing Sales Per Square F00t GLA (3 $545 $800 $525 2003 Dollars 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2018 Cladnaton 12.8% 22.5% Supermarket Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $115.8 $123.5 $127.4 $133.0 $137.0 $141.0 $152.7 $164.4 Clanngton Share ( %) (1 66.9% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% Gadngton Share ($) $77.5 $92.6 $95.6 $998 $102.8 $105.8 $114.5 $123.3 Less: Effective Competition $77.5 $77.5 $77.5 $77.5 $775 $77.5 $77.5 $77.5 Residual Potential from Cladnglon Residents NIA $15.1 $18.1 $22.3 $25.3 $28.3 $37.0 $45.8 LoMaws - RelocationlExpansion to Menus Site- (additional traditional food component) Sales/Sq. Ft. GLA Total Additional Sales Less: Inflow @ (2 10% Total Sales Required from Claringlm Residents Expansion of ABP, Bowmanville Mall SaleslSq. Ft. GIA Total Additional Sales Less: Inflow @(2 10% Total Sales Required from Clanngtan Residents TOTAL SALES REQUIRED FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS Total Residual Sales Potential Available hom Clanngton Residents Sales Tmnsfem Required from Existing Claringbn Supennarkels Net Additional Residual Potential Available for Other Supermarkets 0 35,300 35,300 35,300 35,300 $0 $475 $480 $485 $500 $0.0 $16.8 $16.9 $17.1 $177 24,900 24,900 24,900 24,900 2000 $450 $455 $480 5485 $500 $11.2 $11.3 $120 $12.1 $12.5 $1.1 $1.1 $1.2 $11 $1.3 $10.1 $25.3 $26.0 $26.3 $271 $18.1 $22.3 $25.3 $28.3 $37.0 Sales from Cladngton Residents ($ Millions) (in luding add't re $rS 585.5 $74.5 $76.8 $79.5 $87.4 $94.9 Plus: Estimated Inflow @19.8 %(4 $19.1 $21.1 $184 $19.0 $19.6 $21.6 $23.4 TOTAL SALES $96.6 $106.6 $92.9 $95.8 $99.1 $109.0 $118.3 Total Sq Ft GIA 177,100 177,100 177,100 177,100 177,10 171,100 1TI,I00 Existing Sales Per Square F00t GLA (3 $545 $800 $525 $540 $580 $615 $670 C mnoo in Total Sales From Existino Level 10.3% -3.9% -0.9% 2.6% 12.8% 22.5% SOURCE urbenMebics inc. 1) Year 2003 based on Om results of the telephone save, 2) urbanMotncs in. estimate. 3) Founded to the nearest $5 par souare foot 4) udcenMenics inaestimate based on the licence plate survey awns and teephone survey mates. I ' July 15, 2005 ' Township of Bowmanville c/o Planning Department Staff and Politicians ' To Whom It May Concern: Pertaining to the future plans of Bowmanville, more specifically the big box stores that are expected to come into the area in the future. This concerns both the community that reside in Bowmanville and the surrounding areas, as well as the small businesses that presently are in the downtown area. 1 I currently have 5 empty stores in Courtice. A large sum of money was being ' designated to develop at Hwy #2 and Trulls Rd. a new downtown for Courtice in the near future and it appears that it is premature to allow these big box stores to develop in the area. 1 1 [l r The other major concern is the effect that this development will have on the historical integrity of downtown Bowmanville. If these big stores move in, the businesses will suffer. This suffering will cause these stores to make vital decisions, which in the long run will diminish the entire historical integrity of Bowmanville. My question to the committee is - How do you plan to keep the spirit of Bowmanville's history alive in the downtown core. Sincerely, 04-- �Q Otto Provenzano i 4W23as From: Henry Joseph, Joseph Urban Consultants To: Richard Holy, Municipality of Clarington Tel. 905 623 -3379 ext. 332 Fax 905 623 -0830 rholy 0munUpalitv.ciadnaton.on.ca C.C. Stan Stein, Oster Hoskin & Harcourt Tel. 416 862-6439 Fax 416 862 -6666 sstein(tDosler.com Date: July 13, 2005 Re: Proposed Wal -Mart, Hwy No. 401 & Stevenson Road, City of Oshawa Retail Impact Study By The Climans Group Implications for the Clarington Commercial Policy Review 1 1 Joseph Urban Consultants 11 I understand that staff are finalizing your recommendations on OPA 43 and 44. On behalf of Zellers Inc., I would like to again express concern that the market analyst for the Municipality is underestimating the impacts of the proposed Wal -Mart on the existing commercial structure. Earlier this week, the City of Oshawa held a public meeting on the new Wal -Mart proposal at 401 & Stevenson ' Road. I have reviewed the market study filed by The Climans Group in support of the Oshawa Wal -Mart application and it provides important insights relevant to the Garington application you are considering. My comments herein are brief and addressed to issues we have already raised with the municipality with respect to the assumptions and findings the consultants for Clarington have made on the proposed Wal-Mart. ' Ability of proposed Wal -Mart to recapture sales currently going to Oshawa, particularly from the Courtice area. ' The Climans report identities the entire west sector of Clarington as within the trade area of the proposed south Oshawa Wal -Mart. This sector, with a 2004 estimated population of 24,340 persons, represents over thirty percent of the current Clarington population. The Climans report estimates that approximately 90% of the discount department store spending from this sector currently goes to Oshawa discount department stores and will continue to do so — notwithstanding the current Wal -Mart Bowmanville proposal. We continue to express Clarington our concern with the consultants assumptions that these dollars can be recaptured with a new Wal -Mart in Bowmanville and Mr. Climans evidently agrees. ' He sees no spending significant shifts, even when the Bowmanville store enters the market. Overstatement of potential Inflow by town's consultants Mr. Climans doesn't see any erosion of Oshawa shoppers expenditures in Oshawa facilities even with a new Wal -Mart in Bowmanville. In fact, a new Wal -Mart in Oshawa will maintain the flow of dollars to the larger urban market We continue to express our concern that the 30% inflow of dollars generated by a new Wal -Mart in Bowmanville assumed by the consultants will materialize. To the extent that either or both the 1 1 Joseph Urban Consultants 11 1. ' outflow recapture and the strong growth in inflow do not materialize, both the existing Zellers and ' the downtown merchants will suffer more impact. Understatement of Wal -Mart performance by town's consultants ' Mr. Climans has identified a number of interesting aspects of the Wal -Mart performance. Firstly, that the Harmony & Taunton Wal -Mart performed in 2004 at $5821sf — far in excess of the forecast performance of your consultants. Your consultants have suggested sales of $450 1sf even ' after six years of operation. Secondly, Mr. Climans expects the proposed Oshawa Wal -Mart to enter the market with a performance level of $477/sf, even as the second Wal -Mart sharing the Oshawa market — far in 1 excess of the $380/sf suggested in Bowmanville by the consultants. Wal -Mart impacts Zellers and does not transfer safes from its other stores ' The directional Impacts of the proposed Wal -Mart in Oshawa are dearly on the existing Zellers stores. Mr. Climans expects a modest 2% impact on the Taunton & Harmony Wal -Mart versus a 35% to 51.5% impact on various Oshawa Zellers stores. Secondly, he does not see this signficant impact on Zellers mitigated over a reasonable recovery 1 period. Conclusions 1 This information only confirms our belief that the proposed Wal -Mart store should not enter the Bowmanville market for at tent five years, that any potential expansion thereafter should be subject to a market impact test and that the municipality should not have to count on inflow as 1 large as 30% to mitigate impact from a potentially overzealous expansion program, 1 1 1.1 [1 1 1 1 1 2 Joseph Urban Consultants 1 Fioure 1 Proposed Oshawa Wal -Mart: Draw from Clarinaton Sector Clarington Sector 2004 2008 2008 ($ma.) ($lom.) ($mn.) Clarington Sector Population 24,340 25,530 27,280 Total Clarington Population 79,350 83,205 86,600 % of Total Municipality 30.7% 30.7% 31.5% Discount Dept Store Potential $14.53 $17.08 $20.20 Oshawa Share 90% 90% 90% Oshawa Sales from Clarington $13.08 $15.37 $18.18 Increase in Penetration - $ $2.30 $5.10 Increase in Penetration - % 17.6% 39.0% Ref: Retail Impact Study, Hwy No. 401 S Stevenson Road, Oshawa, April 2005, The Climaro Group Ref: Climans Tables 1, 2E Analysis by Joseph Urban Consultants 3 Joseph Urban Consultants Fiuure 2 Proposed Oshawa Wal -Mart: Impact on Oshawa Zellers Stores Store Performance: Store 2004 2006 2,M (sf) (S/ef) ($/sf) ($ /sf) Wal-Mart Proposed 133,600 rite $477 $577 Wal -Mart - Taunton/Harmony 128,000 $582 $570 $616 Zellers - Oshawa Centre 91,300 $216 $134 $148 Zellers - Five Points Mall 88,800 $160 $103 $115 Zellers - Kingsway Village 65,500 $134 $84 $92 Zellers - Zellers Plaza 81,700 $94 $46 $49 Degree of Impact: 20M 2006 2008 ( %) ( %) ( %) Wal-Mart Proposed Wal -Mart - TauntonlHarmony -2.1% 5.9% Zellers - Oshawa Centre -38.0% -31.4% Zellers - Five Points Mall -35.7% -28.6% Zellers - Kingsway Village -37.6% -0.9% Zellers - Zellers Plaza -51.5% -47.5% Ref., Retail Impact Study, Hwy No. 401 a Stevenson Road, OshroM April 2005, The Climans Group Ref. Climans Table 2F Analysis by Joseph Urban Consultants 4 Joseph Urban Consultants Y THE CLIMANS GROUP INC. l TABLE 1 OSHAWA SOUTH TRADE AREA DSTM I MASS POTENTIAL OSHAWA SOUTH TRADE AREA Total Population 250, 100 264.740 259,010 MASS, 276,470 292470 Total DSTM44ASS Potential IS Mifona) 5960.420 5074.0114 411,007.675 51076927 51,14 &721 51.240.640 Notes: Refer to Appa«fit A 1m a deewiplbn Capr Cat ukbo Notes: Refer to Appmft B for a denugGon of PopWamn EaBmalas and Pro{edbm Tables 2/t6 The CGmans Group Inc Apro 2005. 2002 2003 2004 2006 2906 Will SECTOR ANALY56 Oshawa Sector Popula0mt 142.630 140.190 145,760 148.990 160.610 153.070 DSTMMASS Per Capita (42004) $3.682 53.865 53.720 53,832 83,945 54.068 DSTAVHASS Potential (S 14i111") $525.164 5628.456 5542300 S570A30 $594.608 $622.689 Whiliby sector ubbo" 84.270 86.790 89.380 94,830 100540 100.760 DS LVHASS Par Capita 02004) $4.988 $4,047 54.108 $0.232 $4.360 54492 DSTINHASS P(teMial IS M89am) 5342.842 5351298 $38'7214 5401.321 5436.354 $493.042 Chdollson Sector Popfetlan 23, 200 23.760 ?4,340 25.530 27,280 30.140 DSTAIMASS Per Caplla (MM) 53,992 53.973 $4.033 54.156 $4,280 $4.410 DSTMMASS Potential (S MiWM) 592.614 $94.398 598.163 $100.077 $116.758 $132.917 OSHAWA SOUTH TRADE AREA Total Population 250, 100 264.740 259,010 MASS, 276,470 292470 Total DSTM44ASS Potential IS Mifona) 5960.420 5074.0114 411,007.675 51076927 51,14 &721 51.240.640 Notes: Refer to Appa«fit A 1m a deewiplbn Capr Cat ukbo Notes: Refer to Appmft B for a denugGon of PopWamn EaBmalas and Pro{edbm Tables 2/t6 The CGmans Group Inc Apro 2005. i` TABLE 2E OSHAWA SOUTH TRADE AREA DISCOUNT DEPARTMENT STORES ANALYSIS WITH ADDITIONAL WALeYAM OaAa Ps Sector OSTUMSS Pp10MIW (S Abfiions) D*CD M DepL Store Snare O O O OeMe® Capture O • O wbw Secw DSTUIMM pow" IS Ml tm) DNMO Dept. Store Store O O OSMM Capture O O O CYMp/w1 Sector OSTM ASS Pde" (S urW ) DieconM Dept. Store Store O O O 0"wis Caplme O e 0 OsMera Soots Trees Area Caplrae - 2604 2006 2665 g MrAcm) (S 661110114) (5 w6ans) $542302 $570.930 $594.608 14 -0% SM261 14.8% $14529 ISM 591.920 520.199 17.3% 90.0% 515.371 $102.667 89.5% $71.633 925% $85.026 92.5% 05.152 $367214 $401.321 5438.964 14.0% $54348 16.1% $64.613 17.3% $75835 152% 68.261 40.0% 525.645 40.0% S .334 598.163 5106.077 5118.756 14.8% $14529 16.1% $17.078 17.3% 520.199 90.0% 511075 90.0% 515.371 90.0% 51 8,179 61.067.679 61,676.327 $7,149.721 $149.139 5173.611 6199.992 593.189 5126241 5143.966 Tables The CWrwrs GroW Inc. 7)26 April 2005. TABLE 2F OSHAWA SOUTH TRADE AREA DISCOUNT DEPARTMENT STORES ANALYSIS WITH ADDITION" WAL-MAIII 2004 20060 2006(x) 2000(a) 2006(b) 20D6(e) (9WNa) (SUKMW) ($WOOns) (SMMl ) (SM6flora) (SWltons) Oshawa Trade Area Capture 593189 $126241 5126141 $143.666 $143.666 S14A666 Proposed Store 575.420 Wal- Man - Taunton I Harony O 325% $24224 523.725 Wal- Mart - StewasorlM1Oghway 401 O .133,600 525.843 525.613 S25Aa Zellers - Oshawa Centre O 15-0% Total Projected Seles ($ MRions) $1336 583.700 $63.700 ST7.100 $77.100 $77.100 Trade Area Saks O SO.0% 16.0% $50.960 $50.960 $61.680 SSIAW $61.680 Remaining Trade Area Sales Zellers - Magsway Village Plaza 575.281 $75281 $81.900 $81.986 $81.9% Wal-Mart - Taunton /Harmony $50.312 549.275_ $49.275 553.268 $53256 $53.268 Zellers - Oshawa Centre $16.771 210.397 512.930 $11506 $14247 $17.542 Zellers - FM Points Mal 512112 $7.792 $8.108 $8.047 S&M $11.186 Zellers - King my Village Plaza 57. 454 $4.651 $4.967 $5.149 $5 ,492 CLOSED Zellers - Zellers Plaza $6522 53.166 CLOSED 53.426 CLOSED CLOSED Enstirg Locations $93.100 575.281 $75.281 $81.966 $81.9% 581.986 inflow Eatlmates Wal-Mart - SlavensorWo -Wray 401 O 20.0% 577.100 $11740 $12.740 915420 515.420 575.420 Wal- Man - Taunton I Harony O 325% $24224 523.725 523.725 525.843 525.613 S25Aa Zellers - Oshawa Centre O 15-0% 52.980 $1336 52282 52.000 $2.514 $3.096 Zellers - Fve Points Map O 16.0% 52.137 $1.375 51.431 51528 $1388 $1974 Zellers - Magsway Village Plaza O 15.0% $1.315 90.621 So.6T7 60" $0900 CLOSED Zellers - Zellers Plaza O 15.0% $1.151 $0359 CLOSED $0.805 CLOSED CLOSED Eslsfp Loce0ons $134 5167 $31.787 525314 0111314 SX712 $30.712 530.712 Total Saks Wal-Mart - SlevermonMighway 401 963.700 Wei-Wart - Taunter / Harnary 577.100 Zeem - Oshawa Centre 577.100 Zellers - Five Points Mal 273000 Zellers - Kingslwy Village Plaza $76.900 Zellers -Zelm Plaza 175900 Erlsag Locations $12.232 Sala Per Sq. R $13538 Wal-Men - SkverWaMpglmey 401 O 133,600 WabMan- Tainsn /Harmony O 125000 Zaire, - Oshawa Centre O 91,300 Zellers - Five Points Mal O 88,800 Zellers - Kagmay Village Plaza O 65.500 Zellers - Zellers Paz" O 81,70D Estimated change in Sake from 2004 Wa1 -Mart -Taunton / Hammy Zellers- Oshawa Centre 57.673 Zellers - Five Polls Mail CLOSED Zellers - Kigsway ViKlage Plaza CLOSED Zellers - Zellers Plan $124.957 The C7man6 Getup Inc. Tables 8/26 .2.1% 963.700 $SS.700 577.100 $77.100 577.100 574.536 273000 $73.000 $76.900 $76.900 175900 $19.730 $12.232 516212 $13538 $15761 $211637 $14249 $9.167 $9539 $10.173 $10378 $13161 $5769 $5.472 $8.844 $6-059 $6.461 CLOSED 57.673 $9.725 CLOSED $4.031 CLOSED CLOSED $124.957 $103.580 $103.598 $112.006 $112.698 $1112.699 $477 $477 $577 $577 $577 5592 $570 $570 Seto $616 5616 $216 $134 5167 $148 $184 $226 $t$0 $103 $107 $115 $119 $149 $134 564 599 $92 $99 CLOSED $94 $46 CLOSED $49 CLOSED CLOSED Tables 8/26 .2.1% -Zl% 50% 5.9% 59% - 350% -22.9% -31.4% - 15.0% 4.6% 13517% -331% -29.6% -25.8% 4.0% - 373% - 33.4% -30.9% ,253% CLOSED -515% CLOSED -47.5% CLOSED CLOSED April 20D5. n lei i ' Addendum Market Analysis 1 ' Clarington Commercial Policy Review 1 Prepared For: Meridian Planning Consulting Inc. Municipality of Clarington i ' Date: May 9, 2005 ' urbanMetrics inc. market, economic and strategic advisors 144-146 Front street west, suite 460 Toronto. ON M5J 2V ' Table 3 -D -1 CLARINGTON DSTM EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL OF CLARINGTON RESIDENTS 2003 Dollars 2003 Province of Ontario Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (1 Plus Selected Wholesale (Computer /Office Supplies) $3,594 (2 $100 Total Per Capita DSTM Expendtures - $3,694 ' 2003 Dollars Clarirtaton 2003 2005 2007 2008 2013 2)16 Income Index To Province 9940 DSTM Index to Province Per Capita DSTM Expenditures (3 99.64 $3,680 $3,790 Population (From Table l) $3,900 $3,955 $4,230 $4,400 ' Total DSTM Potential ($ Millions) 77,200 81,500 84910 86 600 96900 103000 Department Store Share @(4 $284.1 $308.9 $331.1 $342 5 $409 9 $4532 Department Store Share Potenlial ($Millions) 26.5/ 26.51 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% Non - Department Store DSTM Share@ $75.3 735% $819 $87.7 $99.3 $118.9 $131.4 Non - Department Store DSTM Potential($Millions) 73.5% 73.5% 71.0% 71.0% 71.0% $208.8 $2270 $243.4 $2432 $2910 $321.8 1) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005) and Monthly Retail Trade data ' 2) Estimated based on Statistics Canada, Wholesale Trade (special tabulation). 3) Rased on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the DSTM regression equation of y = 40 + 0 6(x) where x is the income index. Rounded to the nearest S5 Forecast to increase in real terms at a rate of 1.5 % per year (not compounded) 4) Estimated based an evaluation of the survey results, the provincial average and knowledge of the local market. j J f1 u Table 5 -D -1 CLARINGTON SCENARIO D - 1 DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM WARRANTED SPACE AND IMPACT ANALYSIS (f Millions Proposed Wal -Mart (Phase 1 and Phase 2 Expansion) - Square Feet GLA 2003 2005 2007 - 2008 2013 2016 Clarington $450 $500 Total Estimated Sales Volume $401 $58.2 $65.5 Department Store Expenditures $75.3 $81.9 $87.7 $993 $118.9 $131.4 Clanngton Share ( %) If 17.0% 47.5% w 5% „ _- s 38"f 5Q P% , '50.0% Clarington Share ($) $12.8 $38.9 $417 $497 $59.5 $657 Less: Effective Competition $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12.8 $12B $128 Residual Potential from Clanngton Residents WA $26.1 $28g $3&9 $467 $529 Proposed Wal -Mart (Phase 1 and Phase 2 Expansion) - Square Feet GLA 105,600 145,600 145,600 145.600 Wal -Mart Department Store Sales Per Square Foot $380 $400 $450 $500 Total Estimated Sales Volume $401 $58.2 $65.5 $72.8 Less: Inflow@ 30% (2 $12.0 $17.5 $19.7 $21.8 Total Sales Required from Clanngton Residents $28.1 $40.7 $458 $51.0 TOTAL RESIDUAL SALES AVAILABLE FROM CLARINGTON RESIDENTS $289 $36.9 $467 $52 9 Sales Transfers Required from Existing Clanngton Zellers none $3.8 none $0.2 NET ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL FOR OTHER CLARINGTON PROPOSED /DESIGNATED SPACE (4_ $0.8 none $0.9 none $1.9 EXISTING CLARINGTON DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM SPACE: Sales from Clanngton Residents IS Millions) $12.8 $13.6 $9.0 $13.7 $14.7 Less: Sales Requbed from Existing Clarfngton Dept. Store for Can The expansion (see Table i -0 -1) $00 $0.0 $0.0 $00 Soo Less- Sales Required from Existing Claringfon Dept store for proposed Home Imp. Centres (see Table 2 -D-1) $00 $0.2 $0 2 $0.2 $02 Net Sales from Clarington Residents ($Millions) $12.8 $13.4 $8.8 $135 $14.5 Plus: Estimatedlnflow30% (2 $S5 $5.7 $38 $5.8 $6.2 TOTAL SALES $18.3 $19.1 $12.6 $19.3 $20.7 Total Sq Ft GLA 90,000 95,600 95,600 95,6D0 95,600 Existing Sales Per Square Feel GLA (3 5205 $200 $130 E200 $215 Change in TOTAL Sales From Existing Levels -2.4% 46.6% -2A% 4 n% Source urbanMemos m, 1) Based on the results of the telephone consumer survey (2003) 2) Inflow estimated based on the results of Ore licence plate survey conducted in 2003 at Claringlon Centre, 3) Rounded to the nearest $5 Per square foot gross leasable area. 4) Excluding any additional residual potential required from other store types analyzed. ' Natural Resource and Aggregate Planning 'Expert Evidence and Mediation Project Management 13 July 2005 Mayor John Mutton Municipality of Clarington 40 Temperance Street BOWMANVILLE, Ontario L1C 3A6 Sent by fax and courier Dear Sir: RE: PROPOSED BOWMANVILLE HOME DEPOT, CLARINGTON BOULEVARD, BOWMANVILLE, OUR FILE 9316CK Mr. Crome has asked me to clarify the commitment I made on behalf of Home Depot at the Committee meeting of June 13 and has further asked if there are any additional measures which Home Depot might be prepared to implement to bring the proposal even closer to the draft urban design policies. Please accept this correspondence in response to Mr. Crome's email inquiry which is attached for your easy reference. The numbers in the subheadings below relate to the numbered questions posed by Mr. Crome. 1. Leeds Certification As indicated on June 13, Home Depot, subject to obtaining all approvals, is prepared to construct its building so that it can be LEEDS certified. The "basic" level of certification is proposed. Home Depot has retained Mark Opresnik, BCP Technologies Ltd as a LEEDS Accredited Professional to assist in obtaining the certification. The following is a list of items which Home Depot intends to implement to obtain the LEEDS certification: • Implementation of an erosion and sedimentation control plan; • Encouragement of employees to carpool; • Installation of water efficient plumbing fixtures with the objective of reducing water use by 20%; • Systems Commissioning: ensuring that systems are designed, installed and calibrated to operate as intended; also, installation of energy management system for light fixtures and HVAC equipment; • Measurement and Verification: Providing for the ongoing accountability and optimization of building energy and water consumption performance over time. • Construction Waste Management: Divert construction, demolition and land clearing debris from landfill disposal; Redirect recyclable resources back to the manufacturing process and redirect re- useable materials to appropriate sites; • Recycled Content: Encouragement of contractor and subtrades to use recycled material including recycled content in steel, concrete (fly ash), window frames, etc; 7050 Weston Road, Suite #230 'Woodbridge, Ontario 1,41. 8G7 T: (905) 761.5588 F:(905) 761.5589 Toll Free: 1 (800) 813.9204 www.mhbcplanxom ' James D. Parkin F. MacNaughton 'an MA, FCIP, RPP ' Natural Resource and Aggregate Planning 'Expert Evidence and Mediation Project Management 13 July 2005 Mayor John Mutton Municipality of Clarington 40 Temperance Street BOWMANVILLE, Ontario L1C 3A6 Sent by fax and courier Dear Sir: RE: PROPOSED BOWMANVILLE HOME DEPOT, CLARINGTON BOULEVARD, BOWMANVILLE, OUR FILE 9316CK Mr. Crome has asked me to clarify the commitment I made on behalf of Home Depot at the Committee meeting of June 13 and has further asked if there are any additional measures which Home Depot might be prepared to implement to bring the proposal even closer to the draft urban design policies. Please accept this correspondence in response to Mr. Crome's email inquiry which is attached for your easy reference. The numbers in the subheadings below relate to the numbered questions posed by Mr. Crome. 1. Leeds Certification As indicated on June 13, Home Depot, subject to obtaining all approvals, is prepared to construct its building so that it can be LEEDS certified. The "basic" level of certification is proposed. Home Depot has retained Mark Opresnik, BCP Technologies Ltd as a LEEDS Accredited Professional to assist in obtaining the certification. The following is a list of items which Home Depot intends to implement to obtain the LEEDS certification: • Implementation of an erosion and sedimentation control plan; • Encouragement of employees to carpool; • Installation of water efficient plumbing fixtures with the objective of reducing water use by 20%; • Systems Commissioning: ensuring that systems are designed, installed and calibrated to operate as intended; also, installation of energy management system for light fixtures and HVAC equipment; • Measurement and Verification: Providing for the ongoing accountability and optimization of building energy and water consumption performance over time. • Construction Waste Management: Divert construction, demolition and land clearing debris from landfill disposal; Redirect recyclable resources back to the manufacturing process and redirect re- useable materials to appropriate sites; • Recycled Content: Encouragement of contractor and subtrades to use recycled material including recycled content in steel, concrete (fly ash), window frames, etc; Bernard P. Hermsen BFS, MCIP, RPP Paul R. Britton BES, MCIP, RPP W. Brent Clarkson MA, MCIP, RPP ' James D. Parkin BES, MCIP, RPP' Carol M. Wiebe BES ' Natural Resource and Aggregate Planning 'Expert Evidence and Mediation Project Management 13 July 2005 Mayor John Mutton Municipality of Clarington 40 Temperance Street BOWMANVILLE, Ontario L1C 3A6 Sent by fax and courier Dear Sir: RE: PROPOSED BOWMANVILLE HOME DEPOT, CLARINGTON BOULEVARD, BOWMANVILLE, OUR FILE 9316CK Mr. Crome has asked me to clarify the commitment I made on behalf of Home Depot at the Committee meeting of June 13 and has further asked if there are any additional measures which Home Depot might be prepared to implement to bring the proposal even closer to the draft urban design policies. Please accept this correspondence in response to Mr. Crome's email inquiry which is attached for your easy reference. The numbers in the subheadings below relate to the numbered questions posed by Mr. Crome. 1. Leeds Certification As indicated on June 13, Home Depot, subject to obtaining all approvals, is prepared to construct its building so that it can be LEEDS certified. The "basic" level of certification is proposed. Home Depot has retained Mark Opresnik, BCP Technologies Ltd as a LEEDS Accredited Professional to assist in obtaining the certification. The following is a list of items which Home Depot intends to implement to obtain the LEEDS certification: • Implementation of an erosion and sedimentation control plan; • Encouragement of employees to carpool; • Installation of water efficient plumbing fixtures with the objective of reducing water use by 20%; • Systems Commissioning: ensuring that systems are designed, installed and calibrated to operate as intended; also, installation of energy management system for light fixtures and HVAC equipment; • Measurement and Verification: Providing for the ongoing accountability and optimization of building energy and water consumption performance over time. • Construction Waste Management: Divert construction, demolition and land clearing debris from landfill disposal; Redirect recyclable resources back to the manufacturing process and redirect re- useable materials to appropriate sites; • Recycled Content: Encouragement of contractor and subtrades to use recycled material including recycled content in steel, concrete (fly ash), window frames, etc; Kris Menzies BES, MCIP RPP Offices in: • Kitchener ' - Vaughan. _ London Kingston Barrie City, Town and Rural Planning ' Municipal Plans and Studies Land Development Urban Design / Community Planning Landscape Architecture ' Natural Resource and Aggregate Planning 'Expert Evidence and Mediation Project Management 13 July 2005 Mayor John Mutton Municipality of Clarington 40 Temperance Street BOWMANVILLE, Ontario L1C 3A6 Sent by fax and courier Dear Sir: RE: PROPOSED BOWMANVILLE HOME DEPOT, CLARINGTON BOULEVARD, BOWMANVILLE, OUR FILE 9316CK Mr. Crome has asked me to clarify the commitment I made on behalf of Home Depot at the Committee meeting of June 13 and has further asked if there are any additional measures which Home Depot might be prepared to implement to bring the proposal even closer to the draft urban design policies. Please accept this correspondence in response to Mr. Crome's email inquiry which is attached for your easy reference. The numbers in the subheadings below relate to the numbered questions posed by Mr. Crome. 1. Leeds Certification As indicated on June 13, Home Depot, subject to obtaining all approvals, is prepared to construct its building so that it can be LEEDS certified. The "basic" level of certification is proposed. Home Depot has retained Mark Opresnik, BCP Technologies Ltd as a LEEDS Accredited Professional to assist in obtaining the certification. The following is a list of items which Home Depot intends to implement to obtain the LEEDS certification: • Implementation of an erosion and sedimentation control plan; • Encouragement of employees to carpool; • Installation of water efficient plumbing fixtures with the objective of reducing water use by 20%; • Systems Commissioning: ensuring that systems are designed, installed and calibrated to operate as intended; also, installation of energy management system for light fixtures and HVAC equipment; • Measurement and Verification: Providing for the ongoing accountability and optimization of building energy and water consumption performance over time. • Construction Waste Management: Divert construction, demolition and land clearing debris from landfill disposal; Redirect recyclable resources back to the manufacturing process and redirect re- useable materials to appropriate sites; • Recycled Content: Encouragement of contractor and subtrades to use recycled material including recycled content in steel, concrete (fly ash), window frames, etc; I ' • Local /Regional Materials, 20% Manufactured Locally: secure materials and products from local sources to support local economy and reduce transportation and energy costs; • Low - emitting Materials, Carpet: use of low- emitting carpet in appropriate areas of store; ' • Pedi -Mats: installation of foot grills at the entrances to keep contaminants out of the building; • Recycling: provision of recycling receptacles; • Cardboard Recycling: installation of cardboard baler in the receiving area so that all cardboard is recycled; • T5 Fluorescent Lighting: used in sales area to reduce energy consumption. Home Depot recently won recognition from BC Hydro for this initiative; • Glazing: installation of high efficiency glazing systems using low -E glass and argon glass; • Storm water management: controlled flow water release system on building roof; • Bike racks: installation for employees and customers; • Skylights: provided in the interior of the Garden Centre to allow daylighting • No Smoking policy: Home Depot has a no smoking policy inside its buildings. Implementation of these LEEDS items is estimated to cost $270,000. 2. Brick and Stone Pre -Cast Panels ' It is proposed that brick and stone precast panels be installed rather than Home Depot's prototype white aggregate precast panels. As indicated in my presentation on June 13, the brick and stone precast panels will be installed around the entire building except for the proposed garden centre which will be a combination of brick and stone precast together with decorative fencing. I have requested that coloured elevations be available for my presentation to Council on Friday which will illustrate this proposal. ' It is estimated that the additional cost for the brick and stone precast panels is $100,000. ' 3. Other Architectural Enhancements Proposed on June 13 As indicated on June 13, the following changes to the proposed site plan to address Clarington's urban ' design objectives were offered: • Shift of the garden centre to the east side of the site; • Enhanced landscaping along the Clarington Blvd. frontage; • Elimination of the east and north driveways around the building; • Shift the building to the north and east so that it frames the street; ' • Eliminate the rear lumber loading door; • Shift the receiving area away from the garden centre; and • Installation of a central walkway within the parking area. In terms of other architectural enhancements proposed, I indicated that Home Depot was prepared to do the following: ' • Architectural end feature framing the tool rental centre entrance; • Architectural end feature at the northwest corner of the building; • Installation of 4 inch reveals to provide articulation to provide shadows; ' • Installation of cornice trim around the building; I I �I 1 • Substantially different design of the main vestibule to add height and articulation to provide more prominence at the front of the store; • Installation of a substantial roof element at the front entrance as opposed to the standard pre -cast peak; • Installation of precast screen around the garden centre; and • installation of brick and stone precast panels as described above. 4. Additional Landscaping Proposed on tune 13 ' Prior to my presentation on June 13 I had provided staff and members of Council with photographs of other Home Depot stores. Several parties expressed a liking for the example where the garden centre was next to the street, but commented further that, in addition to deciduous plantings, it would be ' appropriate to consider additional coniferous plantings. During my presentation of June 13 I indicated that Home Depot was prepared to "beef up" the landscaping to implement this suggestion. ' See below for a further discussion on landscaping. 5. 6.7. and 8. Additional Changes, Rear Side of Store. Garden Centre, and Masonry Feature Home Depot has given further consideration to the Municipality's proposed urban design policies and is prepared to implement the following additional design changes: • an additional roof peak over the garden centre at the north east corner; • two additional roof peaks along the rear elevation; • one additional roof peak along the front elevation; ' • - continuous canopy connecting the front vestibule and the lumber canopy; • installation of spandrel glass doors (4) along the rear elevation; • installation of spandrel glass sections (3) along the rear elevation; • installation of a masonry /fence feature along a portion of the Clarington Blvd. frontage where parking is near the street; • installation of trees at 9 metre centres rather than the 10 to 12 metre centres originally proposed; and • installation of parking island trees in accordance with draft urban design policies Unfortunately the drawings illustrating these changes will not be available until late Thursday night, so I will present them to you at the special Council Meeting scheduled for Friday at 10:30. We have now had an opportunity to cost out the changes Home Depot is prepared to implement. The total cost of the June 13 suggestions together with these additional suggestions, not including the cost of the upgraded precast panels, is $813,500. The total commitment for upgrades, including the LEEDS certification, the brick and stone precast panels and the other upgrades is $1,183,500.00. 9. Option to Purchase Private North South Road Mr. Crome asked if Home Depot was prepared to provide an offer to purchase the private north south road connecting Highway 2 and the new Concession Road. Home Depot believes that this would create additional operational and zoning difficulties, particularly related to the loading area. As a result, Home Depot is not prepared to provide such an offer at this time. I ' We understand that the "offer to purchase" was suggested to allow the creation of a new public road at some point in the future in the event the site were ever re- developed. If this is the case, Home Depot is prepared to have a clause in its site plan agreement indicating that if the site is ever redeveloped for ' some other purpose that consideration be given to selling the lands necessary for a public road at that time, at fair market value. M Municipal Consideratio Home Depot is making these commitments on a without prejudice basis on the understanding that the Municipality of Clarington: 1) Adopts Official Plan Amendment 44 and the implementing zoning by -law on July 15, 2005, including the revisions requested by Mr. Bryce Jordan, Sernas Associates (Memorandums of July 8, 2005 and July 11, 2005) as they pertain the Halloway /Home Depot site. 2) Modifies Sections 6 and 8 of the Council Resolution of June 27, 2005 to accommodate the combined Halloway /Home Depot proposal deleting the need for Uptown Avenue to cross through the Halloway site and permitting the Home Depot to be located in the north east corner of the property. 3) Permits Home Depot to have limited outdoor display areas provided that there is no outdoor storage of building or landscaping materials; and 4) Approves a site plan in substantial compliance with the site plan presented to Council on July 15, 2005 (a reduced copy is attached hereto). Thank you for your consideration and I look forward to discussing these matters with you and members of Council more fully at the meeting of July 15, 2005. Sincerely, MHBC PLANNING W. BRENT CLARKSON, MA, MCIP, RPP Copy: Dennis Heffernon, David Crome, Sylvain Rivet, Blair Apple, John Chow, Lyn Townsend, Bob Hann, Bryce Jordan H Brent Clarkson From: Crome, David [dcrome @clarington.net] Sent: Friday, July 08, 2005 10:25 PM To: clarkson ®mhbcplan.com Cc: Pellarin, Carlo; Holy, Richard; dhefferon @hefferonlaw.ca Subject: Home Depot's Commitment Brent: Further to your voice message, perhaps you could clarify in writing Home Depot's committment for the Bowmanville store: 1. You indicated verbally that Home Depot would build a LEED's certified building. Can you provide written confirmation, clarify which level of certification (basic, silver, gold or platinum), and the approximate additional cost? 2. You indicated that stone faced and brick faced pre -cast panels would be used. Can you provide elevations which indicate where this material would be used? Can you provide the approximate additional cost of this versus the standard pre -cast panels? 3. Can you advise what other architectural enhancements are included? 4. You indicated that additional landscaping would be included? Can you identify what additional landscaping over and above the landscaping identfied in the Municipality's urban design policies? 5. 1 understand that you are investigating which additional changes could be made to more closely align with the Municipalitys urban design policies? Can you advise what additional changes would be considered to address the articulation of the building and roofline, the glazing (you previously indicated it would be 45 %) and the canopy? 6. Can you advise whether Home Depot would provide treatment in accordance with the urban design policies for the rear -side of the store (facing the new street) or at least in a similar manner to the Markham East store (Kirkham Drive) with spandrel glass and quality landscape treatment. 77he garden centre treatment is similar to that used in other situations I have seen or heard of (eg. Peterborough, Markham Road, Scarborough). Is there anything in addition to that type of treatment (acknowledging that the columns would include the pre -case brick panels? 8. Would Home Depot construct a masonry wall and enhanced streetscaping along Clarington Boulevard similar to Clarington Centre? 9. Would Home Depot provide an "option to purchase" for the north -south road connecting Highway 2 and the new Concession Road? I may have a few other questions as we proceed to formalize the arrangements and make our report to Council. I also - understand that. you will be makingiasubmissionon proposed changes to the zoning and Official Plan policies. Your earliest response would be appreciated. ' Regards David J. Crome Director of Planning Services Municipality of Clarington Proposed Home Depot Bowmanville, Ontario file# 9316 CK Presentation Exhibits July 15, 2005 Prepared By w Yr.YYYlr r.rY 4r.Wrr r w� j�Vill. wr i INw 'OA w4MW Wr+l +ub/w Ir41r wY.. �rI�W iGtl b/n rlw. .r�.rrxbw.rr.r +r r wYrwr.rrr. w.rY EE. YbR W rrrnr.+i. M.�W wY�rrr ::�W ....bW Yrr Frr Ybrlw a7 �, w..r.r,r�4YY�rrrbrrw.r �• �w.rlr Mr4l�Yjwr.4 L . YwY h.wr rD r • rYr ti• r e wr Yrrr. MrY rY.Fr.w.WrYhr r.•w +br .. rYr. w \r'14.rY.YYrws YFMWL :IIR61W .x o �wI,Y Y �wW Y Y.AY.YIY. i YYAY r � r�Y Y'YYYFWYr WIFy Yr YLY�Yi.�rr.b.rw+ww. r rrW. r,r Y�wW rYY�rrYrr✓ • rw 11MYr Y YaYw.l. riyy. Y��Yyyw��r.W. ry WYYY i Y Y�jY. W Mw �.�Y.F� w Yr'i.ri r..r.rM. rw.Y rr ��wyY�ii1Y1WM ..�W4b rY Y r err r rr..w. iy fir. 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